A simulation-based approach for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data

Tracking pathogen transmissibility during infectious disease outbreaks is essential for assessing the effectiveness of public health measures and planning future control strategies. A key measure of transmissibility is the time-dependent reproduction number, which has been estimated in real-time during outbreaks of a range of pathogens from disease incidence time series data. While commonly used approaches for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number can be reliable when disease incidence is recorded frequently, such incidence data are often aggregated temporally (for example, numbers of cases may be reported weekly rather than daily). As we show, commonly used methods for estimating transmissibility can be unreliable when the timescale of transmission is shorter than the timescale of data recording. To address this, here we develop a simulation-based approach involving Approximate Bayesian Computation for estimating the time-dependent reproduction number from temporally aggregated disease incidence time series data. We first use a simulated dataset representative of a situation in which daily disease incidence data are unavailable and only weekly summary values are reported, demonstrating that our method provides accurate estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number under such circumstances. We then apply our method to two outbreak datasets consisting of weekly influenza case numbers in 2019-20 and 2022-23 in Wales (in the United Kingdom). Our simple-to-use approach will allow accurate estimates of time-dependent reproduction numbers to be obtained from temporally aggregated data during future infectious disease outbreaks.

Inferring Parameters of Pyramidal Neuron Excitability in Mouse Models of Alzheimer's Disease Using Biophysical Modeling and Deep Learning

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is believed to occur when abnormal amounts of the proteins amyloid beta and tau aggregate in the brain, resulting in a progressive loss of neuronal function. Hippocampal neurons in transgenic mice with amyloidopathy or tauopathy exhibit altered intrinsic excitability properties. We used deep hybrid modeling (DeepHM), a recently developed parameter inference technique that combines deep learning with biophysical modeling, to map experimental data recorded from hippocampal CA1 neurons in transgenic AD mice and age-matched wildtype littermate controls to the parameter space of a conductance-based CA1 model. Although mechanistic modeling and machine learning methods are by themselves powerful tools for approximating biological systems and making accurate predictions from data, when used in isolation these approaches suffer from distinct shortcomings: model and parameter uncertainty limit mechanistic modeling, whereas machine learning methods disregard the underlying biophysical mechanisms. DeepHM addresses these shortcomings by using conditional generative adversarial networks to provide an inverse mapping of data to mechanistic models that identifies the distributions of mechanistic modeling parameters coherent to the data. Here, we demonstrated that DeepHM accurately infers parameter distributions of the conductance-based model on several test cases using synthetic data generated with complex underlying parameter structures. We then used DeepHM to estimate parameter distributions corresponding to the experimental data and infer which ion channels are altered in the Alzheimer's mouse models compared to their wildtype controls at 12 and 24 months. We found that the conductances most disrupted by tauopathy, amyloidopathy, and aging are delayed rectifier potassium, transient sodium, and hyperpolarization-activated potassium, respectively.

Direct Estimation of Parameters in ODE Models Using WENDy: Weak-Form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics

We introduce the Weak-form Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamics (WENDy) method for estimating model parameters for non-linear systems of ODEs. Without relying on any numerical differential equation solvers, WENDy computes accurate estimates and is robust to large (biologically relevant) levels of measurement noise. For low dimensional systems with modest amounts of data, WENDy is competitive with conventional forward solver-based nonlinear least squares methods in terms of speed and accuracy. For both higher dimensional systems and stiff systems, WENDy is typically both faster (often by orders of magnitude) and more accurate than forward solver-based approaches. The core mathematical idea involves an efficient conversion of the strong form representation of a model to its weak form, and then solving a regression problem to perform parameter inference. The core statistical idea rests on the Errors-In-Variables framework, which necessitates the use of the iteratively reweighted least squares algorithm. Further improvements are obtained by using orthonormal test functions, created from a set of [Formula: see text] bump functions of varying support sizes.We demonstrate the high robustness and computational efficiency by applying WENDy to estimate parameters in some common models from population biology, neuroscience, and biochemistry, including logistic growth, Lotka-Volterra, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Hindmarsh-Rose, and a Protein Transduction Benchmark model. Software and code for reproducing the examples is available at https://github.com/MathBioCU/WENDy .

Extending EpiEstim to estimate the transmission advantage of pathogen variants in real-time: SARS-CoV-2 as a case-study

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated that emerging variants can set back the global COVID-19 response. The ability to rapidly assess the threat of new variants is critical for timely optimisation of control strategies. We present a novel method to estimate the effective transmission advantage of a new variant compared to a reference variant combining information across multiple locations and over time. Through an extensive simulation study designed to mimic real-time epidemic contexts, we show that our method performs well across a range of scenarios and provide guidance on its optimal use and interpretation of results. We also provide an open-source software implementation of our method. The computational speed of our tool enables users to rapidly explore spatial and temporal variations in the estimated transmission advantage. We estimate that the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant is 1.46 (95% Credible Interval 1.44-1.47) and 1.29 (95% CrI 1.29-1.30) times more transmissible than the wild type, using data from England and France respectively. We further estimate that Delta is 1.77 (95% CrI 1.69-1.85) times more transmissible than Alpha (England data). Our approach can be used as an important first step towards quantifying the threat of emerging or co-circulating variants of infectious pathogens in real-time.

Evaluation of early single dose vaccination on swine influenza A virus transmission in piglets: From experimental data to mechanistic modelling

Swine influenza A virus (swIAV) is a major pathogen affecting pigs with a huge economic impact and potentially zoonotic. Epidemiological studies in endemically infected farms permitted to identify critical factors favoring on-farm persistence, among which maternally-derived antibodies (MDAs). Vaccination is commonly practiced in breeding herds and might be used for immunization of growing pigs at weaning. Althoughinterference between MDAs and vaccination was reported in young piglets, its impact on swIAV transmission was not yet quantified. To this aim, this study reports on a transmission experiment in piglets with or without MDAs, vaccinated with a single dose injection at four weeks of age, and challenged 17 days post-vaccination. To transpose small-scale experiments to real-life situation, estimated parameters were used in a simulation tool to assess their influence at the herd level. Based on a thorough follow-up of the infection chain during the experiment, the transmission of the swIAV challenge strain was highly dependent on the MDA status of the pigs when vaccinated. MDA-positive vaccinated animals showed a direct transmission rate 3.6-fold higher than the one obtained in vaccinated animals without MDAs, estimated to 1.2. Vaccination nevertheless reduced significantly the contribution of airborne transmission when compared with previous estimates obtained in unvaccinated animals. The integration of parameter estimates in a large-scale simulation model, representing a typical farrow-to-finish pig herd, evidenced an extended persistence of viral spread when vaccination of sows and single dose vaccination of piglets was hypothesized. When extinction was quasi-systematic at year 5 post-introduction in the absence of sow vaccination but with single dose early vaccination of piglets, the extinction probability fell down to 33% when batch-to-batch vaccination was implemented both in breeding herd and weaned piglets. These results shed light on a potential adverse effect of single dose vaccination in MDA-positive piglets, which might lead to longer persistence of the SwIAV at the herd level.

Oncolytic virus treatment of human breast cancer cells: Modelling therapy efficacy

Oncolytic viruses are a promising new treatment for cancer, whereby viruses are engineered to selectively destroy cancer cells. Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the virus-tumour system can be modelled to provide insight into the system outcomes under different treatment protocols. In this study key metrics of treatment efficacy were identified and the mathematical model used to develop a decision framework to assess different treatment protocols. The optimal treatment outcome is the interplay between the virus application protocol and the uncertainty about the tumour characteristics. The uncertainty in the model parameters decreases as more data is available for their inference - however to obtain more data more time is required and the tumour then grows in size. Thus, there is an inherent tension whether it is better to wait to know the characteristics of the tumour system better or immediately initiating treatment. It is shown that, for small tumours, parameter inference with limited data does not constrain the choice of treatment protocol and rather only influences longer term decisions.

Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Limits of epidemic prediction using SIR models

The Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) equations and their extensions comprise a commonly utilized set of models for understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. In practice, it is of substantial interest to estimate the model parameters based on noisy observations early in the outbreak, well before the epidemic reaches its peak. This allows prediction of the subsequent course of the epidemic and design of appropriate interventions. However, accurately inferring SIR model parameters in such scenarios is problematic. This article provides novel, theoretical insight on this issue of practical identifiability of the SIR model. Our theory provides new understanding of the inferential limits of routinely used epidemic models and provides a valuable addition to current simulate-and-check methods. We illustrate some practical implications through application to a real-world epidemic data set.

Generative adversarial networks for construction of virtual populations of mechanistic models: simulations to study Omecamtiv Mecarbil action

Biophysical models are increasingly used to gain mechanistic insights by fitting and reproducing experimental and clinical data. The inherent variability in the recorded datasets, however, presents a key challenge. In this study, we present a novel approach, which integrates mechanistic modeling and machine learning to analyze in vitro cardiac mechanics data and solve the inverse problem of model parameter inference. We designed a novel generative adversarial network (GAN) and employed it to construct virtual populations of cardiac ventricular myocyte models in order to study the action of Omecamtiv Mecarbil (OM), a positive cardiac inotrope. Populations of models were calibrated from mechanically unloaded myocyte shortening recordings obtained in experiments on rat myocytes in the presence and absence of OM. The GAN was able to infer model parameters while incorporating prior information about which model parameters OM targets. The generated populations of models reproduced variations in myocyte contraction recorded during in vitro experiments and provided improved understanding of OM’s mechanism of action. Inverse mapping of the experimental data using our approach suggests a novel action of OM, whereby it modifies interactions between myosin and tropomyosin proteins. To validate our approach, the inferred model parameters were used to replicate other in vitro experimental protocols, such as skinned preparations demonstrating an increase in calcium sensitivity and a decrease in the Hill coefficient of the force–calcium (F–Ca) curve under OM action. Our approach thereby facilitated the identification of the mechanistic underpinnings of experimental observations and the exploration of different hypotheses regarding variability in this complex biological system.

Model selection and parameter estimation for dynamic epidemic models via iterated filtering: application to rotavirus in Germany

Despite the wide application of dynamic models in infectious disease epidemiology, the particular modeling of variability in the different model components is often subjective rather than the result of a thorough model selection process. This is in part because inference for a stochastic transmission model can be difficult since the likelihood is often intractable due to partial observability. In this work, we address the question of adequate inclusion of variability by demonstrating a systematic approach for model selection and parameter inference for dynamic epidemic models. For this, we perform inference for six partially observed Markov process models, which assume the same underlying transmission dynamics, but differ with respect to the amount of variability they allow for. The inference framework for the stochastic transmission models is provided by iterated filtering methods, which are readily implemented in the R package pomp by King and others (2016, Statistical inference for partially observed Markov processes via the R package pomp. Journal of Statistical Software69, 1–43). We illustrate our approach on German rotavirus surveillance data from 2001 to 2008, discuss practical difficulties of the methods used and calculate a model based estimate for the basic reproduction number \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{upgreek} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document} }{}$R_0$\end{document} using these data.

3 '-5 ' crosstalk contributes to transcriptional bursting

BACKGROUND

Transcription in mammalian cells is a complex stochastic process involving shuttling of polymerase between genes and phase-separated liquid condensates. It occurs in bursts, which results in vastly different numbers of an mRNA species in isogenic cell populations. Several factors contributing to transcriptional bursting have been identified, usually classified as intrinsic, in other words local to single genes, or extrinsic, relating to the macroscopic state of the cell. However, some possible contributors have not been explored yet. Here, we focus on processes at the 3 ' and 5 ' ends of a gene that enable reinitiation of transcription upon termination.

RESULTS

Using Bayesian methodology, we measure the transcriptional bursting in inducible transgenes, showing that perturbation of polymerase shuttling typically reduces burst size, increases burst frequency, and thus limits transcriptional noise. Analysis based on paired-end tag sequencing (PolII ChIA-PET) suggests that this effect is genome wide. The observed noise patterns are also reproduced by a generative model that captures major characteristics of the polymerase flux between the ends of a gene and a phase-separated compartment.

CONCLUSIONS

Interactions between the 3 ' and 5 ' ends of a gene, which facilitate polymerase recycling, are major contributors to transcriptional noise.

Dynamic Modeling of Transcriptional Gene Regulatory Networks

Diverse cellular phenotypes are determined by groups of transcription factors (TFs) and other regulators that influence each others' gene expression, forming transcriptional gene regulatory networks (GRNs). In many biological contexts, especially in development and associated diseases, the expression of the genes in GRNs is not static but evolves in time. Modeling the dynamics of GRN state is an important approach for understanding diverse cellular phenomena such as cell-fate specification, pluripotency and cell-fate reprogramming, oncogenesis, and tissue regeneration. In this protocol, we describe how to model GRNs using a data-driven dynamic modeling methodology, gene circuits. Gene circuits do not require knowledge of the GRN topology and connectivity but instead learn them from training data, making them very general and applicable to diverse biological contexts. We utilize the MATLAB-based gene circuit modeling software Fast Inference of Gene Regulation (FIGR) for training the model on quantitative gene expression data and simulating the GRN. We describe all the steps in the modeling life cycle, from formulating the model, training the model using FIGR, simulating the GRN, to analyzing and interpreting the model output. This protocol highlights these steps with the example of a dynamical model of the gap gene GRN involved in Drosophila segmentation and includes example MATLAB statements for each step.

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.

Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks

Accurate estimation of the parameters characterising infectious disease transmission is vital for optimising control interventions during epidemics. A valuable metric for assessing the current threat posed by an outbreak is the time-dependent reproduction number, i.e. the expected number of secondary cases caused by each infected individual. This quantity can be estimated using data on the numbers of observed new cases at successive times during an epidemic and the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptomatic cases in a transmission chain). Some methods for estimating the reproduction number rely on pre-existing estimates of the serial interval distribution and assume that the entire outbreak is driven by local transmission. Here we show that accurate inference of current transmissibility, and the uncertainty associated with this estimate, requires: (i) up-to-date observations of the serial interval to be included, and; (ii) cases arising from local transmission to be distinguished from those imported from elsewhere. We demonstrate how pathogen transmissibility can be inferred appropriately using datasets from outbreaks of H1N1 influenza, Ebola virus disease and Middle-East Respiratory Syndrome. We present a tool for estimating the reproduction number in real-time during infectious disease outbreaks accurately, which is available as an R software package (EpiEstim 2.2). It is also accessible as an interactive, user-friendly online interface (EpiEstim App), permitting its use by non-specialists. Our tool is easy to apply for assessing the transmission potential, and hence informing control, during future outbreaks of a wide range of invading pathogens.

Transcriptional processes: Models and inference

Many biochemical events involve multistep reactions. One of the most important biological processes that involve multistep reaction is the transcriptional process. Models for multistep reaction necessarily need multiple states and it is a challenge to compute model parameters that best agree with experimental data. Therefore, the aim of this work is to design a multistep promoter model which accurately characterizes transcriptional bursting and is consistent with observed data. To address this issue, we develop a model for promoters with several OFF states and a single ON state using Erlang distribution. To explore the combined effects of model and data, we combine Monte Carlo extension of Expectation Maximization (MCEM) and delay Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (DSSA) and call the resultant algorithm as delay Bursty MCEM. We apply this algorithm to time-series data of endogenous mouse glutaminase promoter to validate the model assumptions and infer the kinetic parameters. Our results show that with multiple OFF states, we are able to infer and produce a model which is more consistent with experimental data. Our results also show that delay Bursty MCEM inference is more efficient.

Clumped-MCEM: Inference for multistep transcriptional processes

Many biochemical events involve multistep reactions. Among them, an important biological process that involves multistep reaction is the transcriptional process. A widely used approach for simplifying multistep reactions is the delayed reaction method. In this work, we devise a model reduction strategy that represents several OFF states by a single state, accompanied by specifying a time delay for burst frequency. Using this model reduction, we develop Clumped-MCEM which enables simulation and parameter inference. We apply this method to time-series data of endogenous mouse glutaminase promoter, to validate the model assumptions and infer the kinetic parameters. Further, we compare efficiency of Clumped-MCEM with state-of-the-art methods - Bursty MCEM² and delay Bursty MCEM. Simulation results show that Clumped-MCEM inference is more efficient for time-series data and is able to produce similar numerical accuracy as state-of-the-art methods - Bursty MCEM² and delay Bursty MCEM in less time. Clumped-MCEM reduces computational cost by 57.58% when compared with Bursty MCEM² and 32.19% when compared with delay Bursty MCEM.

Approximate Bayesian computation reveals the importance of repeated measurements for parameterising cell-based models of growing tissues

The growth and dynamics of epithelial tissues govern many morphogenetic processes in embryonic development. A recent quantitative transition in data acquisition, facilitated by advances in genetic and live-imaging techniques, is paving the way for new insights to these processes. Computational models can help us understand and interpret observations, and then make predictions for future experiments that can distinguish between hypothesised mechanisms. Increasingly, cell-based modelling approaches such as vertex models are being used to help understand the mechanics underlying epithelial morphogenesis. These models typically seek to reproduce qualitative phenomena, such as cell sorting or tissue buckling. However, it remains unclear to what extent quantitative data can be used to constrain these models so that they can then be used to make quantitative, experimentally testable predictions. To address this issue, we perform an in silico study to investigate whether vertex model parameters can be inferred from imaging data, and explore methods to quantify the uncertainty of such estimates. Our approach requires the use of summary statistics to estimate parameters. Here, we focus on summary statistics of cellular packing and of laser ablation experiments, as are commonly reported from imaging studies. We find that including data from repeated experiments is necessary to generate reliable parameter estimates that can facilitate quantitative model predictions.

Parameter inference for stochastic single-cell dynamics from lineage tree data

Background

With the advance of experimental techniques such as time-lapse fluorescence microscopy, the availability of single-cell trajectory data has vastly increased, and so has the demand for computational methods suitable for parameter inference with this type of data. Most of currently available methods treat single-cell trajectories independently, ignoring the mother-daughter relationships and the information provided by the population structure. However, this information is essential if a process of interest happens at cell division, or if it evolves slowly compared to the duration of the cell cycle.

Results

In this work, we propose a Bayesian framework for parameter inference on single-cell time-lapse data from lineage trees. Our method relies on a combination of Sequential Monte Carlo for approximating the parameter likelihood function and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for parameter exploration. We demonstrate our inference framework on two simple examples in which the lineage tree information is crucial: one in which the cell phenotype can only switch at cell division and another where the cell state fluctuates slowly over timescales that extend well beyond the cell-cycle duration.

Conclusion

There exist several examples of biological processes, such as stem cell fate decisions or epigenetically controlled phase variation in bacteria, where the cell ancestry is expected to contain important information about the underlying system dynamics. Parameter inference methods that discard this information are expected to perform poorly for such type of processes. Our method provides a simple and computationally efficient way to take into account single-cell lineage tree data for the purpose of parameter inference and serves as a starting point for the development of more sophisticated and powerful approaches in the future.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12918-017-0425-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that response measures are proportionate to the scale of the threat. Recently, frameworks based on transmissibility and severity have been proposed for initial characterization of pandemic impact. Data requirements to inform this assessment may be provided by "First Few Hundred" (FF100) studies, which involve surveillance-possibly in person, or via telephone-of household members of confirmed cases. This process of enhanced case finding enables detection of cases across the full spectrum of clinical severity, including the date of symptom onset. Such surveillance is continued until data for a few hundred cases, or satisfactory characterization of the pandemic strain, has been achieved. We present a method for analysing these data, at the household level, to provide a posterior distribution for the parameters of a model that can be interpreted in terms of severity and transmissibility of a pandemic strain. We account for imperfect case detection, where individuals are only observed with some probability that can increase after a first case is detected. Furthermore, we test this methodology using simulated data generated by an independent model, developed for a different purpose and incorporating more complex disease and social dynamics. Our method recovers transmissibility and severity parameters to a high degree of accuracy and provides a computationally efficient approach to estimating the impact of an outbreak in its early stages.

Analysis of Protein Kinetics Using Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching (FRAP)

Fluorescence recovery after photobleaching (FRAP) is a cutting-edge live-cell functional imaging technique that enables the exploration of protein dynamics in individual cells and thus permits the elucidation of protein mobility, function, and interactions at a single-cell level. During a typical FRAP experiment, fluorescent molecules in a defined region of interest within the cell are bleached by a short and powerful laser pulse, while the recovery of the fluorescence in the region is monitored over time by time-lapse microscopy. FRAP experimental setup and image acquisition involve a number of steps that need to be carefully executed to avoid technical artifacts. Equally important is the subsequent computational analysis of FRAP raw data, to derive quantitative information on protein diffusion and binding parameters. Here we present an integrated in vivo and in silico protocol for the analysis of protein kinetics using FRAP. We focus on the most commonly encountered challenges and technical or computational pitfalls and their troubleshooting so that valid and robust insight into protein dynamics within living cells is gained.

Approximate parameter inference in systems biology using gradient matching: a comparative evaluation

BACKGROUND

A challenging problem in current systems biology is that of parameter inference in biological pathways expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Conventional methods that repeatedly numerically solve the ODEs have large associated computational costs. Aimed at reducing this cost, new concepts using gradient matching have been proposed, which bypass the need for numerical integration. This paper presents a recently established adaptive gradient matching approach, using Gaussian processes (GPs), combined with a parallel tempering scheme, and conducts a comparative evaluation with current state-of-the-art methods used for parameter inference in ODEs. Among these contemporary methods is a technique based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). This has previously shown promising results for parameter estimation, but under lax experimental settings. We look at a range of scenarios to test the robustness of this method. We also change the approach of inferring the penalty parameter from AIC to cross validation to improve the stability of the method.

METHODS

Methodology for the recently proposed adaptive gradient matching method using GPs, upon which we build our new method, is provided. Details of a competing method using RKHS are also described here.

RESULTS

We conduct a comparative analysis for the methods described in this paper, using two benchmark ODE systems. The analyses are repeated under different experimental settings, to observe the sensitivity of the techniques.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study reveals that for known noise variance, our proposed method based on GPs and parallel tempering achieves overall the best performance. When the noise variance is unknown, the RKHS method proves to be more robust.

Modeling a dynamic bi-layer contact network of injection drug users and the spread of blood-borne infections

Injection drug users (IDUs) are at high risk of acquiring and spreading various blood-borne infections including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and a number of sexually transmitted infections. These infections can spread among IDUs via risky sexual and needle-sharing contacts. To accurately model the spread of such contagions among IDUs, we build a bi-layer network that captures both types of risky contacts. We present methodology for inferring important model parameters, such as those governing network structure and dynamics, from readily available data sources (e.g., epidemiological surveys). Such a model can be used to evaluate the efficacy of various programs that aim to combat drug addiction and contain blood-borne diseases among IDUs. The model is especially useful for evaluating interventions that exploit the structure of the contact network. To illustrate, we instantiate a network model with data collected by a needle and syringe program in Chicago. We model sexual and needle-sharing contacts and the consequent spread of HIV and HCV. We use the model to evaluate the potential effects of a peer education (PE) program under different targeting strategies. We show that a targeted PE program would avert significantly more HIV and HCV infections than an untargeted program, highlighting the importance of reaching individuals who are centrally located in contact networks when instituting prevention programs.

Mathematical and Statistical Techniques for Systems Medicine: The Wnt Signaling Pathway as a Case Study

The last decade has seen an explosion in models that describe phenomena in systems medicine. Such models are especially useful for studying signaling pathways, such as the Wnt pathway. In this chapter we use the Wnt pathway to showcase current mathematical and statistical techniques that enable modelers to gain insight into (models of) gene regulation and generate testable predictions. We introduce a range of modeling frameworks, but focus on ordinary differential equation (ODE) models since they remain the most widely used approach in systems biology and medicine and continue to offer great potential. We present methods for the analysis of a single model, comprising applications of standard dynamical systems approaches such as nondimensionalization, steady state, asymptotic and sensitivity analysis, and more recent statistical and algebraic approaches to compare models with data. We present parameter estimation and model comparison techniques, focusing on Bayesian analysis and coplanarity via algebraic geometry. Our intention is that this (non-exhaustive) review may serve as a useful starting point for the analysis of models in systems medicine.

Computationally Modeling Lipid Metabolism and Aging: A Mini-review

One of the greatest challenges in biology is to improve the understanding of the mechanisms which underpin aging and how these affect health. The need to better understand aging is amplified by demographic changes, which have caused a gradual increase in the global population of older people. Aging western populations have resulted in a rise in the prevalence of age-related pathologies. Of these diseases, cardiovascular disease is the most common underlying condition in older people. The dysregulation of lipid metabolism due to aging impinges significantly on cardiovascular health. However, the multifaceted nature of lipid metabolism and the complexities of its interaction with aging make it challenging to understand by conventional means. To address this challenge computational modeling, a key component of the systems biology paradigm is being used to study the dynamics of lipid metabolism. This mini-review briefly outlines the key regulators of lipid metabolism, their dysregulation, and how computational modeling is being used to gain an increased insight into this system.