Cardiac risk stratification and adverse outcomes in surgically managed patients with isolated traumatic spine injuries

INTRODUCTION

As the incidence of traumatic spine injuries has been steadily increasing, especially in the elderly, the ability to categorize patients based on their underlying risk for the adverse outcomes could be of great value in clinical decision making. This study aimed to investigate the association between the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and adverse outcomes in patients who have undergone surgery for traumatic spine injuries.

METHODS

All adult patients (18 years or older) in the 2013-2019 TQIP database with isolated spine injuries resulting from blunt force trauma, who underwent spinal surgery, were eligible for inclusion in the study. The association between the RCRI and in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue (FTR) was determined using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors to adjust for potential confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 39,391 patients were included for further analysis. In the regression model, an RCRI ≥ 3 was associated with a threefold risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.19 (2.30-4.43), p < 0.001] and cardiopulmonary complications [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 3.27 (2.46-4.34), p < 0.001], as well as a fourfold risk of FTR [adjusted IRR (95% CI): 4.27 (2.59-7.02), p < 0.001], compared to RCRI 0. The risk of all adverse outcomes increased stepwise along with each RCRI score.

CONCLUSION

The RCRI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with traumatic spine injuries who are at an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, cardiopulmonary complications, and failure-to-rescue after surgery.

Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score: Zero-Burden Machine Learning to Improve Prediction of Postoperative Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty

Background In this retrospective, observational study we introduce the Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score, predicting perioperative major adverse cardiac events (MACE) after elective hip and knee arthroplasty. MACE is a rare but important driver of mortality, and existing tools, eg, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index demonstrate only modest accuracy. We demonstrate an artificial intelligence-based approach to identify patients at high risk of MACE within 4 weeks (primary outcome) of arthroplasty, that imposes zero additional burden of cost/resources. Methods and Results Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score calculation uses novel machine learning to estimate MACE risk from patient electronic health records, without requiring blood work or access to any demographic data beyond that of sex and age, and accounts for variable/missing/incomplete information across patient records. Validated on a deidentified cohort (age >45 years, n=445 391), performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristics curve (AUROC), sensitivity/specificity, positive predictive value, and positive/negative likelihood ratios. In our cohort (age 63.5±10.5 years, 58.2% women, 34.2%/65.8% hip/knee procedures), 0.19% (882) experienced the primary outcome. Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score achieved area under the receiver operator characteristics curve=80.0±0.4% (95% CI) for women and 80.1±0.5% (95% CI) for males, with 36.4% and 35.1% sensitivities, respectively, at 95% specificity, significantly outperforming Revised Cardiac Risk Index across all studied age-, sex-, risk-, and comorbidity-based subgroups. Conclusions Cardiac Comorbidity Risk Score, a novel artificial intelligence-based screening tool using known and unknown comorbidity patterns, outperforms state-of-the-art in predicting MACE within 4 weeks postarthroplasty, and can identify patients at high risk that do not demonstrate traditional risk factors.

Mortality risk stratification in isolated severe traumatic brain injury using the revised cardiac risk index

PURPOSE

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) continues to be a significant cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. As cardiovascular events are among the most common extracranial causes of death after a severe TBI, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) could potentially aid in the risk stratification of this patient population. This investigation aimed to determine the association between the RCRI and in-hospital deaths among isolated severe TBI patients.

METHODS

All adult patients registered in the TQIP database between 2013 and 2017 who suffered an isolated severe TBI, defined as a head AIS ≥ 3 with an AIS ≤ 1 in all other body regions, were included. Patients were excluded if they had a head AIS of 6. The association between different RCRI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4) and in-hospital mortality was analyzed using a Poisson regression model with robust standard errors while adjusting for potential confounders, with RCRI 0 as the reference.

RESULTS

259,399 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. RCRI 2 was associated with a 6% increase in mortality risk [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.06 (1.01-1.12), p = 0.027], RCRI 3 was associated with a 17% increased risk of mortality [adjusted IRR (95% CI) 1.17 (1.05-1.31), p = 0.004], and RCRI ≥ 4 was associated with a 46% increased risk of in-hospital mortality [adjusted IRR(95% CI) 1.46 (1.11-1.90), p = 0.006], compared to RCRI 0.

CONCLUSION

An elevated RCRI ≥ 2 is significantly associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality among patients with an isolated severe traumatic brain injury. The simplicity and bedside applicability of the index makes it an attractive choice for risk stratification in this patient population.

The Association Between Revised Cardiac Risk Index and Postoperative Mortality Following Elective Colon Cancer Surgery: A Retrospective Nationwide Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION

Despite improvements in the perioperative care during the last decades for oncologic colon resection, there is still a substantial risk for postoperative complications and mortality. Opportunities exist for improvement in preoperative risk stratification in this patient population. We hypothesize that the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, a user-friendly tool, could better identify patients with high postoperative mortality risks.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of operated patients between the years 2007 and 2017 was undertaken, using the prospectively recorded Swedish Colorectal Cancer Registry, which has a 99.5% national coverage for all cases of colon cancer. Patients were cross-referenced with the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare dataset, a government registry of mortality and comorbidity data. Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) scores were calculated for each patient and stratified into four groups (RCRI 1, 2, 3, ⩾ 4). A Poisson regression model with robust standard errors of variance was employed to correlate the 90-day postoperative survival with each level of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index.

RESULTS

A total of 24,198 patients met the study inclusion criteria. 90-day postoperative mortality increased from 2.4% in patients with RCRI 1 to 10.1% in patients with RCRI ⩾ 4 (p < 0.001). Adjusted 90-day postoperative mortality increased linearly with an increasing RCRI, where an RCRI of 2, 3, and ≥ 4 respectively led to a 46%, 80%, and 167% increased risk of mortality compared to RCRI 1 (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A strong association between an increasing Revised Cardiac Risk Index score and increased 90-day postoperative mortality risk was detected. The Revised Cardiac Risk Index may facilitate risk stratification of patients undergoing elective colon cancer surgery.

Perioperative Cardiac Considerations in the Surgical Patient

The ability to identify and guide evaluation of the patient with cardiac disease represents a necessary skill for success in surgery of the foot and ankle. Common risk factors, such as diabetes and peripheral arterial disease, are encountered in podiatric practice. Recognition of patients at risk for cardiac disease and a predilection for sustaining a major adverse cardiac event perioperatively advocates for preoperative cardiology consultation. Identification of risk factors, assessment of functional capacity, and appropriate work-up mitigate any untoward cardiac events surrounding surgery. This optimization results from appropriate medical and interventional treatment plans directed at minimizing or eliminating identified risks factors.

Revised Cardiac Risk Index versus ASA Status as a Predictor for Noncardiac Events After Posterior Lumbar Decompression

BACKGROUND

The Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) was designed to predict risk for cardiac events after noncardiac surgery. However, there is a paucity of literature that directly addresses the relationship between RCRI and noncardiac outcomes after posterior lumbar decompression (PLD). The objective of this study is to determine the ability of RCRI to predict noncardiac adverse events after PLD.

METHODS

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program was used to identify patients undergoing PLD from 2006 to 2014. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to identify associations between RCRI and postoperative complications.

RESULTS

A total of 52,066 patients met the inclusion criteria. Membership in the RCRI=1 cohort independently predicted unplanned intubation, ventilation >48 hours, progressive renal insufficiency, acute renal failure, urinary tract infection (UTI), sepsis, septic shock, and readmission. Membership in the RCRI=2 cohort independently predicted for superficial surgical site infection, pneumonia, unplanned intubation, ventilation >48 hours, bleeding transfusion, progressive renal insufficiency, acute renal failure, UTI, sepsis, septic shock, and readmission. Membership in the RCRI=3 cohort independently predicted unplanned intubation (odds ratio [OR], 11.8), ventilation >48 hours (OR, 23.0), acute renal failure (OR, 84.5), and UTI (OR, 3.6). RCRI had a poor discriminative ability (DA) (area under the curve = 0.623), and American Society of Anesthesiologists status had a fair DA (area under the curve = 0.770) to predict a composite of noncardiac complications.

CONCLUSIONS

RCRI was predictive of a wide range of noncardiac complications after PLD but had a diminished DA to predict a composite of any noncardiac complication than did American Society of Anesthesiologists score. Consideration of the RCRI as a component of preoperative surgical risk stratification can minimize patient morbidity and mortality after lumbar decompression.

Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio as a predictor of systemic inflammation - A cross-sectional study in a pre-admission setting

Background: Neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR)  is an emerging biomarker that is used to predict postoperative mortality and morbidity in cardiac and cancer surgeries. The association of this biomarker with systemic illness and its usefulness in risk assessment of preoperative patients has not been fully elucidated.

Objectives: To determine the prevalence of elevated NLR in preoperative patients and to examine the relationship between elevated NLR and the presence of systemic illnesses as well as anaesthesia risk indices such as American Society of Anesthesia (ASA) and the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) scores.

  Design: Cross-sectional study

Setting: Anaesthesia pre-admission clinic, Toronto Western Hospital, Toronto, Canada

Patients: We evaluated 1117 pre-operative patients seen at an anesthesia preadmission clinic.

Results: NLR was elevated (>3.3) in 26.6% of target population. In multivariate analysis, congestive cardiac failure, diabetes mellitus and malignancy were independent risk factors predicting raised NLR. After regression analysis, a relationship between NLR and ASA score (Odds Ratio 1.78; 95% CI: 1.42-2.24) and revised cardiac risk index (RCRI, odds ratio 1.33; 95% CI: 1.09-1.64, p-value: 0.0063) was observed.

Conclusions:  NLR was elevated (> 3.3) in 26.6% of patients. Congestive cardiac failure and malignancy were two constant predictors of elevated NLR at >3.3 and > 4.5. There was a strong association between NLR and anesthesia risk scoring tools of ASA and RCRI.

The prognostic value of pre-operative and post-operative B-type natriuretic peptides in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery: B-type natriuretic peptide and N-terminal fragment of pro-B-type natriuretic peptide: a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to determine whether measuring post-operative B-type natriuretic peptides (NPs) (i.e., B-type natriuretic peptide [BNP] and N-terminal fragment of proBNP [NT-proBNP]) enhances risk stratification in adult patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, in whom a pre-operative NP has been measured.

BACKGROUND

Pre-operative NP concentrations are powerful independent predictors of perioperative cardiovascular complications, but recent studies have reported that elevated post-operative NP concentrations are independently associated with these complications. It is not clear whether there is value in measuring post-operative NP when a pre-operative measurement has been done.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to determine whether the addition of post-operative NP levels enhanced the prediction of the composite of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 and ≥180 days after surgery.

RESULTS

Eighteen eligible studies provided individual patient data (n = 2,179). Adding post-operative NP to a risk prediction model containing pre-operative NP improved model fit and risk classification at both 30 days (corrected quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion: 1,280 to 1,204; net reclassification index: 20%; p < 0.001) and ≥180 days (corrected quasi-likelihood under the independence model criterion: 1,320 to 1,300; net reclassification index: 11%; p = 0.003). Elevated post-operative NP was the strongest independent predictor of the primary outcome at 30 days (odds ratio: 3.7; 95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 6.2; p < 0.001) and ≥180 days (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.9 to 2.7; p < 0.001) after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional post-operative NP measurement enhanced risk stratification for the composite outcomes of death or nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days and ≥180 days after noncardiac surgery compared with a pre-operative NP measurement alone.