Assessing online sexual exploitation among secondary school students in Tanzania from a routine activity theory perspective

OBJECTIVES

In this study, we first assessed whether four routine activity theory (RAT) variables (Internet exposure, target suitability, proximity to offender, and guardianship) determine Tanzanian adolescents' online sexual exploitation (OSE). Second, we identified two types of guardianship that moderate the relationships between these variables and adolescents' OSE. Third, we assessed the moderating effect of locality (rural area) on the relationships among the RAT variables and OSE.

METHOD

Our analysis was based on a stratified random sample of 1014 secondary school adolescents aged 12-20 years (M = 15.67; SD = 1.35) recruited from urban and rural regions of Tanzania. We used Poisson regressions to test the main effects of the RAT variables and the moderating effects of two types of guardianship and locality on OSE.

RESULTS

We found that OSE increased with the suitability of the respondents and with online exposure. Social guardianship had a moderating effect on OSE by reducing the positive influence of target suitability. Living in a rural area also had a moderating effect on OSE through reinforcing the effect of proximity to potential perpetrators in cyberspace.

CONCLUSION

RAT can effectively increase our understanding of the OSE of minors in Tanzania. Furthermore, social rather than physical guardianship can mitigate the risk factors of OSE.

Disentangling the Impact of Covid-19: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis of Crime in New York City

The Covid-19 stay-at-home restrictions put in place in New York City were followed by an abrupt shift in movement away from public spaces and into the home. This study used interrupted time series analysis to estimate the impact of these changes by crime type and location (public space vs. residential setting), while adjusting for underlying trends, seasonality, temperature, population, and possible confounding from the subsequent protests against police brutality in response to the police-involved the killing of George Floyd. Consistent with routine activity theory, we found that the SAH restrictions were associated with decreases in residential burglary, felony assault, grand larceny, rape, and robbery; increases in non-residential burglary and residential grand larceny motor vehicle; and no change in murder and shooting incidents. We also found that the protests were associated with increases in several crime types: felony assault, grand larceny, robbery, and shooting incidents. Future research on Covid-19's impact on crime will need to account for these potentially confounding events.

The Effect of COVID-19 Restrictions on Routine Activities and Online Crime

Objectives

Routine activity theory suggests that levels of crime are affected by peoples' activity patterns. Here, we examine if, through their impact on people's on- and off-line activities, COVID-19 restriction affected fraud committed on- and off-line during the pandemic. Our expectation was that levels of online offending would closely follow changes to mobility and online activity-with crime increasing as restrictions were imposed (and online activity increased) and declining as they were relaxed. For doorstep fraud, which has a different opportunity structure, our expectation was that the reverse would be true.

Method

COVID-19 restrictions systematically disrupted people's activity patterns, creating quasi-experimental conditions well-suited to testing the effects of "interventions" on crime. We exploit those conditions using ARIMA time series models and UK data for online shopping fraud, hacking, doorstep fraud, online sales, and mobility to test hypotheses. Doorstep fraud is modelled as a non-equivalent dependent variable, allowing us to test whether findings were selective and in line with theoretical expectations.

Results

After controlling for other factors, levels of crime committed online were positively associated with monthly variation in online activities and negatively associated with monthly variation in mobility. In contrast, and as expected, monthly variation in doorstep fraud was positively associated with changes in mobility.

Conclusions

We find evidence consistent with routine activity theory, suggesting that disruptions to people's daily activity patterns affect levels of crime committed both on- and off-line. The theoretical implications of the findings, and the need to develop a better evidence base about what works to reduce online crime, are discussed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10940-022-09564-7.

Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime

OBJECTIVES

The present study examines how varying levels of restrictions on the nightlife economy have impacted violent crime during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which the crime preventive side-effects of restrictions are associated with the density of alcohol outlets.

METHODS

The Data stems from geocoded locations of violent crimes combined with data on the density of on-premises alcohol outlets and the level of COVID-19 restrictions in Copenhagen, Denmark. We use a negative binomial count model with cluster robust standard error to assess the effect of the interaction between alcohol outlet density and COVID-related restriction levels on the nightlife economy on the frequency of violent crime.

RESULTS

The article reveals how both the level of restrictions on the nightlife economy and the density of alcohol outlets significantly impacted the frequency of violent crime. The regression analysis shows that the effect of restrictions on the nightlife economy depends on the concentration of on-premises alcohol outlets in the area. In areas with a high concentration of outlets, we observe a much higher reduction in crime as consequence of the COVID-19 related restrictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The results shows that a more restricted nightlife economy, including earlier closing times, could have a crime preventive effect, especially in areas with a high density of alcohol outlets.

Understanding Domestic Violence in India During COVID-19: a Routine Activity Approach

Domestic violence, a prevalent problem in India, saw an increase during the lockdown imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19. This article explores the factors associated with an increase in domestic violence incidents during COVID-19 by applying routine activity theory (RAT) framework. Data were drawn from the incidents of domestic violence reported in newspapers. Data was analyzed using content analysis and three major themes, i.e., three principle components of RAT-motivated offender, suitable target, and absence of capable guardian-were drawn. Findings reveal that sources of motivation in domestic violence perpetrators during the lockdown were alcohol and unemployment. The symbolic value that perpetrators associated with women, lower inertia, visibility, and accessibility to the perpetrators made women suitable targets of domestic violence. Lastly, shortage of police force and travel restrictions on formal and informal sources resulted in the absence of capable guardians. We conclude that changes in the routine activities of people during the COVID-19 lockdown provided more opportunities to the perpetrators of domestic violence.

Exploring the Immediate Effects of COVID-19 Containment Policies on Crime: an Empirical Analysis of the Short-Term Aftermath in Los Angeles

This work investigates whether and how COVID-19 containment policies had an immediate impact on crime trends in Los Angeles. The analysis is conducted using Bayesian structural time-series and focuses on nine crime categories and on the overall crime count, daily monitored from January 1st 2017 to March 28th 2020. We concentrate on two post-intervention time windows-from March 4th to March 16th and from March 4th to March 28th 2020-to dynamically assess the short-term effects of mild and strict policies. In Los Angeles, overall crime has significantly decreased, as well as robbery, shoplifting, theft, and battery. No significant effect has been detected for vehicle theft, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, intimate partner assault, and homicide. Results suggest that, in the first weeks after the interventions are put in place, social distancing impacts more directly on instrumental and less serious crimes. Policy implications are also discussed.

Cybercrime in America amid COVID-19: the Initial Results from a Natural Experiment

The COVID-19 pandemic has radically altered life, killing hundreds of thousands of people and leading many countries to issue "stay-at-home" orders to contain the virus's spread. Based on insights from routine activity theory (Cohen & Felson 1979), it is likely that COVID-19 will influence victimization rates as people alter their routines and spend more time at home and less time in public. Yet, the pandemic may affect victimization differently depending on the type of crime as street crimes appear to be decreasing while domestic crimes may be increasing. We consider a third type of crime: cybercrime. Treating the pandemic as a natural experiment, we investigate how the pandemic has affected rates of cybervictimization. We compare pre-pandemic rates of victimization with post-pandemic rates of victimization using datasets designed to track cybercrime. After considering how the pandemic may alter routines and affect cybervictimization, we find that the pandemic has not radically altered cyberroutines nor changed cybervictimization rates. However, a model using routine activity theory to predict cybervictimization offers clear support for the theory's efficacy both before and after the pandemic. We conclude by considering plausible explanations for our findings.

On 'Organized Crime' in the illicit antiquities trade: moving beyond the definitional debate

The extent to which 'organized crime' is involved in illicit antiquities trafficking is unknown and frequently debated. This paper explores the significance and scale of the illicit antiquities trade as a unique transnational criminal phenomenon that is often said to be perpetrated by and exhibit traits of so-called 'organized crime.' The definitional debate behind the term 'organized crime' is considered as a potential problem impeding our understanding of its existence or extent in illicit antiquities trafficking, and a basic progression-based model is then suggested as a new tool to move beyond the definitional debate for future research that may help to elucidate the actors, processes and criminal dynamics taking place within the illicit antiquities trade from source to market. The paper concludes that researchers should focus not on the question of whether organized criminals- particularly in a traditionally conceived, mafia-type stereotypical sense- are involved in the illicit antiquities trade, but instead on the structure and progression of antiquities trafficking itself that embody both organized and criminal dynamics.