Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Navigating social-ecological changes: A mixed-method analysis of extensive livestock systems in southern Patagonian forests, Argentina

Sustainable livestock management plays a crucial role in food production, climate change mitigation, and cultural preservation. Our study aimed to identify and analyse the diversity of social-ecological conditions that characterize extensive livestock systems in southern Patagonia. We integrated data collected from interviews and secondary sources and analysed data using hierarchical cluster analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling to identify distinct ranching types. A qualitative analysis of key informant interviews identified key social-ecological changes for each type. The results emphasize the impact of administration, production, and biophysical factors on shaping different livestock ranching schemes. Further, we identified three significant social-ecological changes driving the dynamics of these systems, including shifts from (1) sheep to cattle ranching, (2) domestic to feral cattle ranching, and (3) landowners to tenant land managers. These findings have implications for policymakers seeking to develop strategies tailored to diverse realities, ensuring the sustainability of livestock systems in Tierra del Fuego.

The social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition

Expanding in both scope and scale, ecosystem restoration needs to embrace complex social-ecological dynamics. To help scientists and practitioners navigate ever new demands on restoration, we propose the "social-ecological ladder of restoration ambition" as a conceptual model to approach dynamically shifting social and ecological restoration goals. The model focuses on three dynamic aspects of restoration, namely degrading processes, restoration goals and remedial actions. As these three change through time, new reinforcing and balancing feedback mechanisms characterize the restoration process. We illustrate our model through case studies in which restoration has become increasingly ambitious through time, namely forest landscape restoration in Rwanda and grassland restoration in Germany. The ladder of restoration ambition offers a new way of applying social-ecological systems thinking to ecosystem restoration. Additionally, it raises awareness of social-ecological trade-offs, power imbalances and conflicting goals in restoration projects, thereby laying an important foundation for finding more practicable and fairer solutions.

The historical trajectory of a coffee agri-food system: A case study in Oaxaca, Mexico

Agri-food social-ecological systems (AFSES) embrace complex interactions and processes of food production, processing, and commercialization that are subject to constant changes. This study develops a heuristic approach using the adaptive cycle (AC) and a transformation potential measure to identify the historical trajectory of a coffee AFSES at a watershed scale in Copalita, Mexico, over 40 years from 1980 to 2020. Primary information was collected through semistructured interviews. The results show that the system interactions depend on economic, social, and environmental stressors and shocks affecting different temporal and spatial scales. The cumulative effects of driving forces and adaptive strategies have influenced the system to not complete the AC phases. Additionally, the results show that some adaptive strategies can become new stressors with time. Driving forces, adaptive strategies, tipping points, trade-offs and interactions within the AFSES could be identified as the main aspects defining system resilience.

Exploring "big picture" scenarios for resilience in social-ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social-ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social-ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the debrief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01308-1.

Sustainability innovations: a proposal for an analytical framework and its empirical application in the Schorfheide-Chorin Biosphere Reserve

Sustainability innovations influence societal transformations through the development of new products, processes, organizations, behaviors or values. Although various research approaches have tackled technological innovations in the last few decades, the specificities and enabling conditions of individual sustainability innovations remain rather unknown. We therefore propose an analytical framework, built on learning from the social-ecological systems and transitions literature. The sustainability innovation framework features four dimensions: context, actors, process and outcomes, which are detailed in 31 variables. We use the sustainability innovation framework to analyze two case studies selected in the Schorfheide-Chorin Biosphere Reserve, Germany. The first refers to technological and organizational innovation in mobility, while the second relates to social and organizational innovation in agriculture. As a result, we highlight commonalities and differences in enabling conditions and variables between the two cases, which underpin the influence of trust, commitment, resource availability, experimenting, learning, advocating, and cooperating for innovation development. The cases further demonstrate that sustainability innovations develop as bundles of interdependent, entangled novelties, due to their disruptive character. Their specificity thereby resides in positive outcomes in terms of social-ecological integrity and equity. This study therefore contributes to transitions studies via a detailed characterization of sustainability innovations and of their outcomes, as well as through a generic synthesis of variables into an analytical framework that is applicable to a large and diverse range of individual sustainability innovations. Further empirical studies should test these findings in other contexts, to pinpoint generic innovation development patterns and to develop a typology of sustainability innovation archetypes.

The metacoupled Arctic: Human-nature interactions across local to global scales as drivers of sustainability

The Arctic is an epicenter of complex environmental and socioeconomic change. Strengthened connections between Arctic and non-Arctic systems could threaten or enhance Arctic sustainability, but studies of external influences on the Arctic are scattered and fragmented in academic literature. Here, we review and synthesize how external influences have been analyzed in Arctic-coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) literature. Results show that the Arctic is affected by numerous external influences nearby and faraway, including global markets, climate change, governance, military security, and tourism. However, apart from climate change, these connections are infrequently the focus of Arctic CHANS analyses. We demonstrate how Arctic CHANS research could be enhanced and research gaps could be filled using the holistic framework of metacoupling (human-nature interactions within as well as between adjacent and distant systems). Our perspectives provide new approaches to enhance the sustainability of Arctic systems in an interconnected world.

How ecological research on human-dominated ecosystems incorporates agricultural and forestry practices: A literature analysis

Understanding the nexus between practices and ecosystems is a critical challenge for sustainability, but it is unclear how ecological sciences have explored the question. To bring clarification, we conducted an analysis of ecology literature dealing with agricultural and forestry practices (AF practices), scanning a total of 27 556 references. Scientometric analyses showed that AF practices were addressed by 5.5% of ecology literature, and that this proportion increased from 2.5 to 8.1% between 1956 and 2017. Content analyses showed that research has mainly focused on monospecific systems in the Global North, predominantly using plot-level experimental approaches. Temporal monitoring, real-world practices and their social context were poorly investigated. This analysis stresses the need to reinforce research in complex agroecosystems, in particular in non-Western countries. Multilevel and spatio-temporal approaches, as well as participatory research, should also be encouraged to build a social-ecological understanding and formulate more grounded, relevant policy recommendations for sustainability.

Community-based responses for tackling environmental and socio-economic change and impacts in mountain social-ecological systems

Mountain social-ecological systems (SES) are often rich in biological and cultural diversity with sustained human-nature interactions. Many mountain SES are experiencing rapid environmental and socio-economic change, demanding viable action for conservation to sustain ecosystem services for the benefit of their communities. This paper is a synthesis of 71 case studies of mountain-specific SES, submitted to the International Partnership for the Satoyama Initiative (IPSI) that identifies major drivers of change, associated impacts, and response strategies. We find that overexploitation, land use change, demographic change, and the regional economy are the most prevalent drivers of change in the IPSI mountain SES, leading to negative consequences for biodiversity, livelihoods, indigenous knowledge, and culture. To counter these challenges in the study SES, stakeholders from the public, private, and civil society sectors have been implementing diverse legal, behavioral, cognitive, technological, and economic response strategies, often with strong community participation. We outline the lessons learned from the IPSI case studies to show how community-based approaches can contribute meaningfully to the sustainable management of mountain landscapes.

Institutional effects on ecological outcomes of community-based management of fisheries in the Amazon

Communities throughout the globe are increasingly being given the responsibility of resource management, making it necessary to understand the factors that lead to success in community-based management (CBM). Here, we assessed whether and how institutional design principles affect the ecological outcomes of CBM schemes for Arapaima sp., an important common-pool fishery resource of the Amazon Basin. We quantified the degree of presence of Ostrom's (Science 325:419-422, 1990) institutional design principles in 83 communities using a systematic survey, and quantitatively linked the design principles to a measure of ecological outcome (arapaima density) in a subset of 39 communities to assess their influence. To understand regional patterns of institutional capacity for CBM, we evaluated the degree of presence of each principle in all 83 communities. The principle scores were positively related to arapaima density in the 39 CBM schemes, explaining about half of the variation. Design principles related to defined boundaries and graduated sanctions exerted the strongest influence on the capacity of CBM to increase arapaima density. The degree to which most principles were present in all 83 communities was generally low, however, with the two most influential principles (defined boundaries and graduated sanctions) being the least present of all. Although the roles of the other principles (management rules, conflict resolution, collective action, and monitoring systems) are probably important, our results indicate that efforts aimed at strengthening the presence of defined boundaries and graduated sanctions in communities hold promise to improve the effectiveness of arapaima CBM regionally.

Operationalizing ecosystem service bundles for strategic sustainability planning: A participatory approach

The ecosystem service concept is recognized as a useful tool to support sustainability in decision-making. In this study, we collaborated with actors in the Helge å catchment, southern Sweden, in an iterative participatory ecosystem service assessment. Through workshops and interviews, we jointly decided which ecosystem services to assess and indicators to use in order to achieve a sense of ownership and a higher legitimacy of the assessment. Subsequently, we explored the landscape-level interactions between the 15 assessed services, and found that the area can be described using three distinct ecosystem service bundles. The iterative, participatory process strengthened our analysis and created a shared understanding and overview of the multifunctional landscape around Helge å among participants. Importantly, this allowed for the generated knowledge to impact local strategic sustainability planning. With this study, we illustrate how similar processes can support local decision-making for a more sustainable future.

Rapid Resource Change and Visitor-Use Management: Social-ecological Connections at the Bonneville Salt Flats

Parks and protected areas are complex, and managers often need integrated social-ecological science-based information that illuminates the dynamic interactions between the biophysical and social processes. However, modeling and determining social-ecological connections are difficult due to disciplinary paradigms, divergent research questions, and data sets representing different scales. During this investigation, researchers sought to evaluate social-ecological linkages at a large salt pan (Bonneville Salt Flats) in western Utah (US). Specifically, the investigation evaluated how the changing level and location of salt-crust moisture and ponding water influenced visitors' spatial distribution of use and important elements of their experience. The findings indicate that visitors travel more distance, spend more time recreating, and use the Salt Flats in higher densities during dry conditions. However, the results also highlight that importance levels ascribed to specific aspects of the visitor experience remained relatively stable regardless of changes in salt-crust moisture and ponding water. Illuminating such linkages is important because most natural resource issues in society, including resources at the Bonneville Salt Flats, are not solely ecological or social in nature but characterized by deeper enmeshment between the two.

Resilience building of rural livelihoods in PES programmes: A case study in China's Loess Hills

In spite of positive expectations for environmental protection, payments for ecosystem services (PES) can bring about unintended disturbances to rural livelihoods. Based on resilience thinking, this article investigates livelihood resilience building at farm level through the interaction between farm adaptation and disturbances induced by China's Grain for Green project (GGP). Cluster analysis was conducted to investigate the complexity and diversity of farm adaptation; the crafting of composite indexes was designed to value resilience through disturbance, sensitivity, and adaptability; regression analyses linked the resilience indexes and farm adaptation with access to resources. The results show three adaptation typologies (i.e. reclamation of retired lands, contractive farming, and expansive farming) with distinct land use structures and resilience scores, and highlight the need to improving farmers' access and endowment of tangible (e.g. farming facilities) and intangible resources (e.g. skill training) for resilience-building practices in light of the GGP. The findings imply that policy interventions combining environmental restrictions with widening resource access to support alternative livelihoods can offset the unintended effects and amplify the success of PES programmes.

Social-ecological timelines to explore human adaptation to coastal change

Through the construction of a socio-ecological timeline for the Porsanger fjord ecosystem, this article illustrates the different ways in which environmental and social-ecological changes have influenced the adaptations of rural households in coastal Sami communities in Finnmark, north Norway. The main finding is that, although environmental change in the form of seal invasions and dwindling fish stocks directly impacted the fisheries, the introduction of a new vessel quota system decisively changed adaptive capacity and coastal Sami household adaptation strategies. These changes represented a tipping point for the social-ecological system in the period between 1986 and 1990. It is thus important to discuss the ways in which governance systems may facilitate actions to adapt to climate and biodiversity change and foster sustainable rural livelihood systems in coastal Norway. Based on traditional and local ecological knowledge on the state of the ecosystem prior to the tipping point, two relevant actions to increase the resilience of the system were identified: ensuring the possibility of re-entry into fisheries as part of rural livelihood combinations, and ecological restoration of kelp beds. Flexible diversification of livelihoods allows exploitation of a range of adjacent species without large investments in a fossile fuel-driven fisheries economy. Investing in regrowth of macroalgae to foster cod nursery areas and increase carbon sequestration can be a relevant alternative for communities that are interested in contributing to climate change mitigation on a larger scale.

Reconnecting with nature for sustainability

Calls for humanity to 'reconnect to nature' have grown increasingly louder from both scholars and civil society. Yet, there is relatively little coherence about what reconnecting to nature means, why it should happen and how it can be achieved. We present a conceptual framework to organise existing literature and direct future research on human-nature connections. Five types of connections to nature are identified: material, experiential, cognitive, emotional, and philosophical. These various types have been presented as causes, consequences, or treatments of social and environmental problems. From this conceptual base, we discuss how reconnecting people with nature can function as a treatment for the global environmental crisis. Adopting a social-ecological systems perspective, we draw upon the emerging concept of 'leverage points'-places in complex systems to intervene to generate change-and explore examples of how actions to reconnect people with nature can help transform society towards sustainability.

Integrating design thinking with sustainability science: a Research through Design approach

Design disciplines have a long history of creating well-integrated solutions to challenges which are complex, uncertain and contested by multiple stakeholders. Society faces similar challenges in implementing the Sustainable Development Goals, so design methods hold much potential. While principles of good design are well established, there has been limited integration of design thinking with sustainability science. To advance this integration, we examine the process of designing MetaMAP: an interactive graphic tool for collaborating to understand social-ecological systems and design well-integrated solutions. MetaMAP was created using Research through Design methods which integrate creative and scientific thinking. By applying design thinking, researchers and practitioners from different backgrounds undertook multiple cycles of problem framing, solution development, testing and reflection. The testing was highly collaborative involving over 150 people from diverse disciplines in workshops, case studies, interviews and critique. Reflecting on this process, we discuss design principles and opportunities for integrating design thinking with sustainability science to help achieve Sustainable Development Goals.

Re-examining balinese subaks through the lens of cultural multilevel selection

Overcoming environmental challenges requires understanding when and why individuals adopt cooperative behaviors, how individual behaviors and interactions among resource users change over time, and how group structure and group dynamics impact behaviors, institutions, and resource conditions. Cultural multilevel selection (CMLS) is a theoretical framework derived from theories of cultural evolution and cultural group selection that emphasizes pressures affecting different levels of social organization as well as conflicts among these levels. As such, CMLS can be useful for understanding many environmental challenges. With this paper, we use evidence from the literature and hypothetical scenarios to show how the framework can be used to understand the emergence and persistence of sustainable social-ecological systems. We apply the framework to the Balinese system of rice production and focus on two important cultural traits (synchronized cropping and the institutions and rituals associated with water management). We use data from the literature that discusses bottom-up (self-organized, complex adaptive system) and top-down explanations for the system and discuss how (1) the emergence of group structure, (2) group-level variation in cropping strategies, institutions, and rituals, and (3) variation in overall yields as a result of different strategies and institutions, could have allowed for the spread of group-beneficial traits and the increasing complexity of the system. We also outline cultural transmission mechanisms that can explain the spread of group-beneficial traits in Bali and describe the kinds of data that would be required to validate the framework in forward-looking studies.

A review of ecosystem service benefits from wild bees across social contexts

In order to understand the role of wild bees in both social and ecological systems, we conducted a quantitative and qualitative review of publications dealing with wild bees and the benefits they provide in social contexts. We classified publications according to several attributes such as services and benefits derived from wild bees, types of bee-human interactions, recipients of direct benefits, social contexts where wild bees are found, and sources of changes to the bee-human system. We found that most of the services and benefits from wild bees are related to food, medicine, and pollination. We also found that wild bees directly provide benefits to communities to a greater extent than individuals. In the social contexts where they are found, wild bees occupy a central role. Several drivers of change affect bee-human systems, ranging from environmental to political drivers. These are the areas where we recommend making interventions for conserving the bee-human system.

A conceptual framework for understanding illegal killing of large carnivores

The growing complexity and global nature of wildlife poaching threaten the survival of many species worldwide and are outpacing conservation efforts. Here, we reviewed proximal and distal factors, both social and ecological, driving illegal killing or poaching of large carnivores at sites where it can potentially occur. Through this review, we developed a conceptual social-ecological system framework that ties together many of the factors influencing large carnivore poaching. Unlike most conservation action models, an important attribute of our framework is the integration of multiple factors related to both human motivations and animal vulnerability into feedbacks. We apply our framework to two case studies, tigers in Laos and wolverines in northern Sweden, to demonstrate its utility in disentangling some of the complex features of carnivore poaching that may have hindered effective responses to the current poaching crisis. Our framework offers a common platform to help guide future research on wildlife poaching feedbacks, which has hitherto been lacking, in order to effectively inform policy making and enforcement.

Leverage points for sustainability transformation

Despite substantial focus on sustainability issues in both science and politics, humanity remains on largely unsustainable development trajectories. Partly, this is due to the failure of sustainability science to engage with the root causes of unsustainability. Drawing on ideas by Donella Meadows, we argue that many sustainability interventions target highly tangible, but essentially weak, leverage points (i.e. using interventions that are easy, but have limited potential for transformational change). Thus, there is an urgent need to focus on less obvious but potentially far more powerful areas of intervention. We propose a research agenda inspired by systems thinking that focuses on transformational 'sustainability interventions', centred on three realms of leverage: reconnecting people to nature, restructuring institutions and rethinking how knowledge is created and used in pursuit of sustainability. The notion of leverage points has the potential to act as a boundary object for genuinely transformational sustainability science.

Reviving wood-pastures for biodiversity and people: A case study from western Estonia

Wood-pastures are associated with high cultural and biodiversity values in Europe. However, due to their relatively low productivity, large areas of wood-pastures have been lost over the last century. In some areas, incentive schemes have been developed to revive wood-pastures. We investigated the effects of one such scheme in western Estonia. We compared the structure of grazed wood-pastures (old and restored) to those of abandoned wood-pastures and ungrazed forest stands to explore the effects of management, and conducted interviews with 24 farmers to investigate their motivations to carry out the management. We found a positive influence of active management on the semi-open structure of wood-pastures. Financial support was vital for management, but personal values related to tradition also played an important role. The interviewees differed widely in their range of motivations, suggesting that other strategies in addition to financial incentives would further improve the management of wood-pastures in the region.

Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems

Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps

Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed.

Changing landowners, changing ecosystem? Land-ownership motivations as drivers of land management practices

Motivations for owning rural land are shifting from an agricultural-production orientation to a preference for natural and cultural amenities. Resultant changes in land management have significant implications for the type and distribution of landscape-level disturbances that affect the delivery of ecosystem services. We examined the relationship between motivations for owning land and the implementation of conservation land management practices by landowners in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. Using a mail survey, we classified landowners into three groups: agricultural production, multiple-objective, and lifestyle-oriented. Cross tabulations of landowner group with past, current, and future use of 12 different land management practices (related to prescribed grazing, vegetation management, restoration, and water management) found that lifestyle-oriented landowners were overall less likely to adopt these practices. To the degree that the cultural landscape of rural lands transitions from production-oriented to lifestyle-oriented landowners, the ecological landscape and the associated flow of ecosystem services will likely change. This poses new challenges to natural resource managers regarding education, outreach, and policy; however, a better understanding about the net ecological consequences of lower rates of adoption of conservation management practices requires consideration of the ecological tradeoffs associated with the changing resource dependency of rural landowners.