Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment

This paper explores the robustness of laboratory expectation formation and public signal credibility to external uncertainty shocks and online experimentation. We exploit the recent pandemic as a source of exogenous background uncertainty in a New Keynesian learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) where participants receive projections of varying precision about future inflation. We compare results from identical LtFE completed immediately before the onset of the pandemic, soon after (online), and well after (online and in-person). Baseline LtFEs with no communication are robust to both factors. However, both background uncertainty and online experimentation impact how subjects use public signals. The pandemic led to a decreased appetite for and tolerance of overly precise communication while increasing the efficacy of projections that also convey uncertainty. Subjects became more averse to central bank forecast errors after the onset of the pandemic if the central bank conveyed a precise outlook but not if it conveyed forecast uncertainty.

Do emotion regulation and impulsivity differ according to gambling preferences in clinical samples of gamblers?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Emotion regulation (ER) and impulsivity impairments have been reported in patients with gambling disorder (GD). However, both constructs have not been studied in depth jointly in clinical samples. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze ER and impulsive tendencies/traits in a sample of n = 321 treatment-seeking individuals with GD by differentiating them according to their gambling preference (n = 100 strategic; n = 221 non-strategic).

METHODS

Our sample was assessed through the DERS (ER), the UPPS-P (impulsivity), and the DSM-5 (GD severity).

RESULTS

The non-strategic group included a higher proportion of women and reported greater ER impairments, and more impulsive traits/tendencies compared to strategic gamblers. GD severity was associated with all DERS subscale (except for awareness) and with urgency dimensions of the UPPS-P.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings confirm that strategic and non-strategic gamblers differ in their ER processes and impulsive tendencies, showing the first clinical group a more adaptive profile. These results suggest the relevance of assessing these ER and impulsivity in order to tailor better treatment approaches.

The development of prosocial behavior-from sympathy to strategy

Children act prosocially already in their first years of life. Research has shown that this early prosociality is mostly motivated by sympathy for others, but that, over the course of development, children's prosocial behaviors become more varied, more selective, and more motivationally and cognitively complex. Here, we review recent evidence showing that starting at around age 5, children become gradually capable of strategically using prosocial acts as instrumental means to achieve ulterior goals such as to improve their reputation, to be chosen as social partners, to elicit reciprocity, and to navigate interpersonal obligations. Children's sympathy-based prosociality is thus being extended and reshaped into a behavioral repertoire that enables individuals to pursue and balance altruistic, mutualistic, and selfish motives.

How helpful are Patient and Public Involvement strategic documents - Results of a framework analysis using 4Pi National Involvement Standards

BACKGROUND

Patient and Public Involvement (PPI) strategic documents are viewed as an essential feature of organisational commitment to openness and transparency. They provide a mechanism to communicate opportunities for wider community influence in healthcare. The absence of documentation can be negatively interpreted, for example during regulatory inspection, as a lack of intent by organisations to collaborate with a broad constituency. Published literature paints a confusing picture of rationale and evidence that could provide the foundation for strategic action. This makes it difficult for those responsible for turning goals into meaningful involvement. We investigated how content is presented and organised in strategic documents. This pragmatic study is intended to stimulate reflective practice, promote debate and generate further inquiry with a wide audience.

METHODS

We created and iterated a framework adapted from 4Pi National Involvement Standards to analyse organisational PPI strategic documents against five domains which are principles, purpose, presence, process and impact. Fifteen strategic documents were grouped into four categories (acute care providers; clinical commissioning groups; community healthcare providers; and other) and included for analysis. A matrix was produced. By reading the matrix vertically (down) and horizontally (across), comparisons can be made between 4Pi domains and across organisations.

RESULTS

There was no discernible pattern between domains or between organisations. There was variation in the level to which criteria were met. No single strategy fully met the criteria for all five domains of 4Pi National Involvement Standards. The criteria for purpose was fully met in eight strategic documents. Only two documents fully met impact criteria. Four organisations showed better completeness with fully or partially met criteria across five domains. A single organisation partially met the criteria for all domains. The remaining 10 were unable to meet the criteria in at least one domain.

CONCLUSION

Our findings align with published literature that suggests the underpinning rationale for PPI is confusing. A strategic aim is difficult to articulate. Context and complexity are at play making the sharing of generalisable knowledge elusive. We offer further critique about the value of these documents and consider: 'is there an alternative approach to construct PPI strategy to generate theory, capture learning and evaluate effectiveness at the same time?' We suggest testing the adoption of programme theory in PPI. The emergent nature and context sensitive features of programme theory enable curiosity, creativity and critical appraisal. It has the potential to release practitioners from the tokenistic cycle of monitoring and reporting and replace this with a richer understanding of 'what' works and 'how' tied to a 'why' - in order to achieve a shared aim that everyone can get behind.

Treating Multidimensional Presenting Problems with a Mutually Integrative Approach Using the Genogram

The present article introduces a case study and describes a mutually integrative approach to treating a complex presenting problem. This article examines the specific issues surrounding integration when a supervisor and supervisee hold different theoretical perspectives. On occasion, such a relationship demands that the supervisee adhere to the model being taught by the supervisor. Examining integration in this format presents many advantages for both treatment and training. The key to the mutual integration is that two schools of psychotherapy can be combined in a way that creates a synergy; in that, together they are more powerful than either may be in isolation. A genogram with symbols from each model is incorporated to focus the treatment and create a format for the mutual integration.

Impulsivity and cognitive distortions in different clinical phenotypes of gambling disorder: Profiles and longitudinal prediction of treatment outcomes

BACKGROUND

Impulsivity and cognitive distortions are hallmarks of gambling disorder (GD) but it remains unclear how they contribute to clinical phenotypes. This study aimed to (1) compare impulsive traits and gambling-related distortions in strategic versus non-strategic gamblers and online versus offline gamblers; (2) examine the longitudinal association between impulsivity/cognitive distortions and treatment retention and relapse.

METHODS

Participants seeking treatment for GD (n = 245) were assessed for gambling modality (clinical interview), impulsive traits (Urgency, Premeditation, Perseverance and Sensation Seeking [UPPS] scale) and cognitive distortions (Gambling Related Cognitions Scale) at treatment onset, and for retention and relapse (as indicated by the clinical team) at the end of treatment. Treatment consisted of 12-week standardized cognitive behavioral therapy, conducted in a public specialized clinic within a general public hospital.

RESULTS

Strategic gamblers had higher lack of perseverance and gambling-related expectancies and illusion of control than non-strategic gamblers, and online gamblers had generally higher distortions but similar impulsivity to offline gamblers. Lack of perseverance predicted treatment dropout, whereas negative urgency and distortions of inability to stop gambling and interpretative bias predicted number of relapses during treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with online and strategic GD phenotypes have heightened gambling related biases associated with premature treatment cessation and relapse. Findings suggest that these GD phenotypes may need tailored treatment approaches to reduce specific distortions and impulsive facets.

Some Neuropsychological Profiles and Personality Traits of Undergraduate Regular Online Football Gamblers (a New Online Gambling Game) in Nigeria

Online football (soccer) gambling is among the relatively new sports betting games in Nigeria that use internet connections. Like other gambling games, some psychological profiles either propel or sustain the behavior. We tested some neuropsychological profiles and personality traits that distinguish the regular online football gamblers from non-gamblers. Using a between group design, we tested 140 (60: online football gamblers; 80: non-gamblers) university undergraduate students between the ages of 18-26 years on specific neuropsychological domains (i.e., attention, inhibition and executive function) and personality traits. The neuropsychological tasks used were the Series Addition Task (a modified version of Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task), Stroop-Word Color Test and Trail Making Test (TMT), Parts A and B. The personality traits were assessed using the Big Five Personality Inventory. The findings showed significant differences between the online football gamblers and non-gamblers, reflecting greater agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to experience for the football gamblers. However, on the attention tasks, the non-gamblers made significantly fewer errors on forward addition and backward subtraction tasks, but did take more time to complete the backward counting task as compared to gamblers. On the other hand, online football gamblers took significantly less time to complete the Stroop congruence task and made significantly fewer errors on Stroop incongruence task. Similarly, the online football gamblers took less time to complete the TMT B and made fewer errors on TMT A. University undergraduate regular online football gamblers, as compared to non-gamblers, demonstrate stronger personality traits of ambition and gregariousness, and perform better on tasks of executive function, though they had more difficulty on tasks of divided and sustained attention.

The Threat and Response to Infectious Diseases (Revised)

The threat from microorganisms is complex, and the approaches for reducing the challenges the world is facing are also multifaceted, but a combination approach including several simple steps can make a difference and reduce morbidity and mortality and the economic cost of fighting infectious diseases. This paper discusses the continually evolving infectious disease landscape, contributing factors in the rise of the threat, reasons for optimism, and the policies, technologies, actions, and institutions that might be harnessed to further reduce the dangers introduced by pathogens. It builds upon and updates the work of other authors that have recognized the dangers of emerging and re-emerging pathogens and have explored and documented potential solutions.

Appraising longitudinal trends in the strategic risks cited by risk managers in the international water utility sector, 2005-2015

We report dynamic changes in the priorities for strategic risks faced by international water utilities over a 10year period, as cited by managers responsible for managing them. A content analysis of interviews with three cohorts of risk managers in the water sector was undertaken. Interviews probed the focus risk managers' were giving to strategic risks within utilities, as well as specific questions on risk analysis tools (2005); risk management cultures (2011) and the integration of risk management with corporate decision-making (2015). The coding frequency of strategic (business, enterprise, corporate) risk terms from 18 structured interviews (2005) and 28 semi-structured interviews (12 in 2011; 16 in 2015) was used to appraise changes in the perceived importance of strategic risks within the sector. The aggregated coding frequency across the study period, and changes in the frequency of strategic risks cited at three interview periods identified infrastructure assets as the most significant risk over the period and suggests an emergence of extrinsic risk over time. Extended interviews with three utility risk managers (2016) from the UK, Canada and the US were then used to contextualise the findings. This research supports the ongoing focus on infrastructure resilience and the increasing prevalence of extrinsic risk within the water sector, as reported by the insurance sector and by water research organisations. The extended interviews provided insight into how strategic risks are now driving the implementation agenda within utilities, and into how utilities can secure tangible business value from proactive risk governance. Strategic external risks affecting the sector are on the rise, involve more players and are less controllable from within a utility's own organisational boundaries. Proportionate risk management processes and structures provide oversight and assurance, whilst allowing a focus on the tangible business value that comes from managing strategic risks well.

Strategic risk appraisal. Comparing expert- and literature-informed consequence assessments for environmental policy risks receiving national attention

Strategic risk appraisal (SRA) has been applied to compare diverse policy level risks to and from the environment in England and Wales. Its application has relied on expert-informed assessments of the potential consequences from residual risks that attract policy attention at the national scale. Here we compare consequence assessments, across environmental, economic and social impact categories that draw on 'expert'- and 'literature-based' analyses of the evidence for 12 public risks appraised by Government. For environmental consequences there is reasonable agreement between the two sources of assessment, with expert-informed assessments providing a narrower dispersion of impact severity and with median values similar in scale to those produced by an analysis of the literature. The situation is more complex for economic consequences, with a greater spread in the median values, less consistency between the two assessment types and a shift toward higher severity values across the risk portfolio. For social consequences, the spread of severity values is greater still, with no consistent trend between the severities of impact expressed by the two types of assessment. For the latter, the findings suggest the need for a fuller representation of socioeconomic expertise in SRA and the workshops that inform SRA output.

Scientific commentary: Strategic analysis of environmental policy risks--heat maps, risk futures and the character of environmental harm

We summarise our recent efforts on the policy-level risk appraisal of environmental risks. These have necessitated working closely with policy teams and a requirement to maintain crisp and accessible messages for policy audiences. Our comparative analysis uses heat maps, supplemented with risk narratives, and employs the multidimensional character of risks to inform debates on the management of current residual risk and future threats. The policy research and ensuing analysis raises core issues about how comparative risk analyses are used by policy audiences, their validation and future developments that are discussed in the commentary below.