Significant role of permafrost in regional hydrology of the Upper Indus Basin, India

Upper Indus Basin (UIB), being climatologically sensitive and socio-economically important, has emerged as a hotspot for eco-hydrological studies. Permafrost, one of the essential components of the regional hydrological cycle with a critical role in microclimate, is also an important water resource in the UIB. Despite being an important component of the cryospheric system, permafrost is least studied in the UIB. In present study, we used stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition in supra-permafrost water (SPFW) and aufeis along with precipitation, snowpack, glacier and other groundwaters to assess their variability and estimate their contribution to regional hydrology. The sources are evolving isotopically, depending on physiographic and hydrometeorological factors, with each source attaining different (if not distinct) isotopic signatures. The isotopic signatures (with different ranges) of sources help in estimating the contribution from these sources. A significant altitude gradient of δ18O is observed in stream water, SPFW and other groundwaters. Isotopic composition in SPFW is differentially modulated by fractionation, resulting in isotopic variability from the source waters. The results suggest snowmelt and/or glacier melt as the source of SPFW. To stream flow, SPFW is the dominant contributor (43 ± 18 %) at higher elevations (> 4300 m a.m.s.l.) in July, followed by snowmelt (26 ± 10 %). In September, SPFW contribution decreases (14 ± 8 %), but the contribution from other groundwaters becomes dominant (39 ± 11 %) to stream flow. The results indicate the significant role of seasonal thawing and freezing of active layer on the contribution from SPFW. This study highlights the significant role of permafrost in the hydrological system of the basin. The study also emphasizes the need to understand the dynamics of permafrost, taliks of various types (e.g., supra-permafrost subaerial talik) and active layer under changing climate to define the subsequent implications to regional hydrology, eco-hydrological systems and micro-climate of permafrost regions.

Understanding the hydrochemical functioning of glacierized catchments of the Upper Indus Basin in Ladakh, Indian Himalayas

Recent studies have endorsed that surface water chemical composition in the Himalayas is impacted by climate change-induced accelerated melting of glaciers. Chemical weathering dynamics in the Ladakh region is poorly understood, due to unavailability of in situ dataset. The aim of the present study is to investigate how the two distinct catchments (Lato and Stok) drive the meltwater chemistry of the Indus River and its tributary, in the Western Himalayas. Water samples were collected from two glaciated catchments (Lato and Stok), Chabe Nama (tributary) and the Indus River in Ladakh. The mildly alkaline pH (range 7.3-8.5) and fluctuating ionic trend of the meltwater samples reflected the distinct geology and weathering patterns of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). Gibbs plot and mixing diagram revealed rock weathering outweighed evaporation and precipitation. The strong associations between Ca²⁺-HCO₃^-, Mg²⁺-HCO₃^-, Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺, Na⁺-HCO₃^-, and Mg²⁺-Na⁺ demonstrated carbonate rock weathering contributed to the major ion influx. Principal component analysis (PCA) marked carbonate and silicates as the most abundant minerals respectively. Chemical weathering patterns were predominantly controlled by percentage of glacierized area and basin runoff. Thus, Lato with the larger glacierized area (~ 25%) and higher runoff contributed low TDS, HCO₃^-, Ca²⁺, and Na⁺ and exhibited higher chemical weathering, whereas lower chemical weathering was evinced at Stok with the smaller glacierized area (~ 5%). In contrast, the carbonate weathering rate (CWR) of larger glacierized catchments (Lato) exhibits higher average value of 15.7 t/km²/year as compared to smaller glacierized catchment (Stok) with lower average value 6.69 t/km²/year. However, CWR is high in both the catchments compared to silicate weathering rate (SWR). For the first time, in situ datasets for stream water chemical characteristics have been generated for Lato and Stok glaciated catchments in Ladakh, to facilitate healthy ecosystems and livelihoods in the UIB.

21st century precipitation and monsoonal shift over Pakistan and Upper Indus Basin (UIB) using high-resolution projections

There is research evidence that due to global warming, global precipitation and monsoon area have shown a shift which needs to be analyzed at regional scale. This study analyses future precipitation and monsoon spatial shift over Pakistan and Upper Indus Basin (UIB) based on latest Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) high resolution projections (25 km) for the South Asian domain. Three global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) (MIROC5, NorESM1-M and MPI-ESM-MR) provided the lateral boundary conditions for the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) under Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results indicate that JJA precipitation over Upper Indus Basin (UIB which also includes North Pakistan) is projected to increase more under RCP8.5 and less under RCP2.6 while for Pakistan it shows slightly increase (decrease) in RCP2.6 (RCP8.5). The results also show a projected expansion in monsoon area in UIB and northward shift of MCR which corresponds with future precipitation changes in the area and hence indicate the penetration of monsoon system over UIB under higher warming scenario. The changes in monsoon precipitation and domain are related to the changes in wind circulation patterns at 850 hPa and 200 hPa atmospheric levels.

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

Topography and climate in the upper Indus Basin: Mapping elevation-snow cover relationships

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB), which covers a wide range of climatic and topographic settings, provides an ideal venue to explore the relationship between climate and topography. While the distribution of snow and glaciers is spatially and temporally heterogeneous, there exist regions with similar elevation-snow relationships. In this work, we construct elevation-binned snow-cover statistics to analyze 3415 watersheds and 7357 glaciers in the UIB region. We group both glaciers and watersheds using a hierarchical clustering approach and find that (1) watershed clusters mirror large-scale moisture transport patterns and (2) are highly dependent on median watershed elevation. (3) Glacier clusters are spatially heterogeneous and are less strongly controlled by elevation, but rather by local topographic parameters that modify solar insolation. Our clustering approach allows us to clearly define self-similar snow-topographic regions. Eastern watersheds in the UIB show a steep snow cover-elevation relationship whereas watersheds in the central and western UIB have moderately sloped relationships, but cluster in distinct groups. We highlight this snow-cover-topographic transition zone and argue that these watersheds have different hydrologic responses than other regions. Our hierarchical clustering approach provides a potential new framework to use in defining climatic zones in the cyrosphere based on empirical data.

Glacier changes on the Nanga Parbat 1856-2020: A multi-source retrospective analysis

Contemporary changes in the Himalayan cryosphere are an important concern in the global climate change debate. In this context, the glaciers of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) deserve special attention because of their importance for freshwater supply in the mountain valleys and the adjoining lowlands. However, detailed long-term glacier monitoring studies are rare due to the lack of historical data with adequate spatial and temporal resolution. In the case of Nanga Parbat, the ample availability of historical maps and terrestrial photographs together with satellite imagery and digital elevation models make it possible to analyse and quantify glacier changes for the period between 1856 and 2020. Using diverse multi-temporal datasets, this study reveals slight changes in ice-covered area for 63 glaciers, which decreased by 7% between 1934 and 2019. A detailed analysis of five glaciers in the Rupal Valley over the period 1856-2020 identifies diverse response patterns and highlights the importance of ice and snow avalanches, surge-type instabilities and site-specific topographic particularities for individual glacier changes. The results show high similarity with the stable glacier mass in the Karakoram. This study demonstrates the advantages of combining multiple sources and types of data in order to achieve consilience and offer robust insights.

Distribution and relevance of aufeis (icing) in the Upper Indus Basin

In the semi-arid high mountains of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), meltwater supply from the cryosphere is vital for irrigated agriculture and hydropower generation. An overlooked cryosphere component that is critical for this is aufeis, which appears as a sheet-like formation of ice layers, created by successive and laminated freezing of flowing water. This study aims to redress the lack of knowledge about this phenomenon by creating an inventory of aufeis fields for the UIB and analysing their spatial distribution, including the role of topographical parameters such as altitude, slope, and aspect. The study is based on a time-series analysis using Landsat imagery from 2010 to 2020, supported and validated by several field campaigns carried out between 2014 and 2020. In total, more than 3700 aufeis fields were detected covering an area of about 298 ± 38 km². The spatial distribution of their occurrence indicates a distinct elevation range between 4000 and 5500 m a.s.l. and is marked by a pronounced longitudinal increase to the east. In contrast to the western part of the UIB (Gilgit-Baltistan), where only some few and small aufeis fields can be detected, 65% of the aufeis covered areas (195 ± 23 km²) exist on the Tibetan Plateau. Our database fills an important research gap and will help in further cryosphere studies in the UIB and beyond.

Hydrograph apportionment of the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the Upper Indus Basin, western Himalaya

Melting of snow and glaciers from the high-altitude Himalayan region is a significant water source to the major Himalayan rivers, especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB), which contributes up to 70% of river discharge. Considering Indus Basin as a largest irrigation system dependent on snow and glacier melt runoff, it is imperative to study the rivers' current status and water budget. In this study we have performed a tracer-based hydrograph separation to quantify the contribution of seasonal snow, glacier melt, and groundwater to the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the upper Indus basin, western Himalaya. Our study revealed a negligible control of summer (May-September 2017) precipitation and significant control of summer air temperature (May-September 2017) and winter precipitation over the Chandra River discharge, with 1 °C rise in air temperature leading to 22 m³s^-1 (15% of mean) increase in the river discharge (R² = 0.85; n = 541; p < 0.001). The hydrograph separation of the Chandra River suggests groundwater (38.3 ± 5.6%; 96.8 m³s^-1) as a significant source to the river runoff, followed by a direct contribution from glacier melt (30.9 ± 9%; 88.2 m³s^-1) and seasonal snowmelt (30.6 ± 5.7%; 84.2 m³s^-1), respectively, with negligible contribution from rainfall. Although groundwater is a significant contributor to the river runoff, the infiltration of seasonal snowmelt (54%) and glacier melt (46%) mostly contributed to the groundwater recharge. Present study establishes a linkage between seasonal snowmelt, glacier melt, groundwater, and the river runoff and would be useful to better model and predicts the future changes in the water resources of the upper Indus Basin.

Effect of climate and socioeconomic changes on future surface water availability from mountainous water sources in Pakistan's Upper Indus Basin

Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources from the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), especially for irrigation. An evaluation framework was developed and applied in this study to understand the variability in surface water availability to agricultural and domestic sectors across various future climate and socioeconomic pathways in five catchments within the UIB (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, and Shyoke). A planning tool named Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) was used to understand the dynamics of past and future water demands for multiple future scenarios. We combined three different climate scenarios (representative concentration pathways) with socioeconomic scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways) of economic development and population and local agricultural land development pathways. The results indicate that the external driving forces of climate change and socioeconomic growth will cause a discrepancy between the supply and demand of water resources in regions with higher socioeconomic growth, particularly those with agricultural development as the dominant external factor. Among the five catchments within the UIB, Astore and Gilgit face a water shortfall in all future scenarios, whereas Shyoke will encounter water deficiencies only in the case of agricultural land development. We also demonstrated that the impact of climate change is markedly different in Astore and Gilgit. Over Astore, the impact of precipitation will control the unmet water demands by increasing winter streamflow whereas over Gilgit non-climatic factors, such as population and agricultural growth, will control future unmet water demands.

Meltwater hydrochemistry at four glacial catchments in the headwater of Indus River

Glacier runoff shows significant change under global warming in the headwater region of the Indus River with great impact on its highly populated downstream area, but the hydrochemistry characteristics of meltwater and the changing mechanism remain unclear in this region. In this study, runoff water samples were collected during May and June, 2015, from four glacial catchments in the Upper Indus Basin to investigate general characteristics and daytime dynamics of meltwater runoff together with sediment and chemical contents. Results showed that glacier runoff in the studied area had an alkaline pH and much higher sediment yields than the local average of the non-glacier areas. The carbonate-dominated geological feature in the four catchments resulted in single chemical facies of Ca-HCO₃. The dominant process determining the glacier runoff chemistry was rock-water interaction, with less soluble minerals and less intensive evaporate weathering in the Passu and Gulmit catchments than the B&B and Hinarchi catchments. Comparing the investigated catchments, the larger glacier with longer flow path exhibited higher runoff but lower melting rate, higher SSC resulting from higher erosive power of flow, and higher solute concentrations as a consequence of more intensive contact of meltwater with rock minerals along the longer flow path. For individual catchments, a negative correlation between TDS and flow rate (R² = 0.26~0.53) and changing trends of ion ratios with flow rate demonstrated that under intensive melting conditions, rock-water interactions were reduced, resulting in dilution of solutes. Overall, the general chemical characteristics of the investigated glacier runoff indicated geological control, whereas individual glacier illustrated hydrological control on the daytime dynamics of glacier runoff chemistry. The presence of glacier terminal lake and agriculture land can significantly alter the hydrochemistry of downstream runoff.