The prevalence of selected vector-borne diseases in dromedary camels (Camelus dromedarius) in the United Arab Emirates

Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) affecting dromedary camels (Camelus dromedarius) have considerable importance in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) because of the consequences associated with production decline and economic losses. Our study aimed to determine the prevalence of selected VBDs in camels in the UAE and identify risk factors. This research is currently affected by the low number of epidemiological molecular surveys addressing this issue. Blood samples were obtained from 425 dromedary camels from different locations across the UAE. Whole genomic DNA was isolated, and PCR screening was done to detect piroplasmids (Babesia/Theileria spp.), Trypanosoma spp., and Anaplasmataceae spp. (Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Neorickettsia and Wolbachia spp.). Amplicons were sequenced, and phylogenetic trees were constructed. Trypanosoma sequences were identified as T. brucei evansi, whereas Anaplasmataceae sequences were identified as A. platys-like. All camels were negative for Babesia/Theileria spp. (0%); however, 18 camels were positive for T. b. evansi (4%) and 52 were positive for A. platys-like (12%). Mixed infection with T. b. evansi and A. platys-like was found in one camel. Statistical analyses revealed that camels with a brown coat colour were significantly more prone to acquire the A. platys-like strain compared with those having a clearer coat. A similar finding was observed when comparing urban moving camels with desert indoor and urban indoor camels. Continuous disease surveillance is required to ensure and maintain the good health status of the camels in the UAE. Nonetheless, the risk of disease outbreak remains if the misuse of drugs continues.

The application of biosecurity practices for preventing avian influenza in North-Eastern Italy turkey farms: An analysis of the point of view and perception of farmers

INTRODUCTION

Italian and international outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly in densely populated poultry areas (DPPAs), have increased over the past few decades. These emerging risks, which endanger both human and animal health and the entire poultry industry, can be effectively limited by biosecurity measures implemented at human-animal food chain interfaces. Some problems, however, persist in the application of these measures on the part of poultry farmers, prompting the need to explore those aspects and causes that limit their implementation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A qualitative approach was selected for the study and a semi-structured interview technique was applied to collect data among turkey farmers (n = 29) working in the north-east of Italy. The aim of this technique was to gather data on farms in order to understand the biosecurity practices adopted and the reasons for and impediments to farmer implementation, or lack thereof. This article presents and discusses the main data collected.

RESULTS

The study revealed that farmers were familiar with the biosecurity measures necessary to contain avian influenza (AI) and other poultry diseases; personal disinfection and animal isolation practices were particularly prominent. Based on the reported procedures, managerial, economic, and psychosocial factors were among the barriers behind the failure to implement biosecurity measures. These obstacles were variously intertwined and associated with the different action settings. In particular management factors, such as lack of time to apply the rules and difficulties contingent on the farm's structural characteristics, mediate the application of biosecurity measures. In terms of communication channels, the company, particularly its technicians, proved to be the primary source of information for farmers in case of emergencies, as well as the primary source of information on the application of biosecurity measures. However, other sources of information were indicated, such as word of mouth among farmers or other non-institutional figures (relatives and acquaintances).

CONCLUSIONS

What emerged, was the need to improve not only the biosecurity management skills, but also to implement forms of cooperation among the various key stakeholders in the poultry sector. The information presented in this pilot study needs to be discussed among competent authorities, public and company veterinarians, company technicians, and farmers. Furthermore, this information will help in participatory co-planning of risk prevention and communication strategies to implement a long-term, sustainable, effective approach to address future epidemic emergencies.

Spatio-temporal evaluation of social media as a tool for livestock disease surveillance

Recent outbreaks of Avian Influenza across Europe have highlighted the potential for syndromic surveillance systems that consider other modes of data, namely social media. This study investigates the feasibility of using social media, primarily Twitter, to monitor illness outbreaks such as avian flu. Using temporal, geographical, and correlation analyses, we investigated the association between avian influenza tweets and officially verified cases in the United Kingdom in 2021 and 2022. Pearson correlation coefficient, bivariate Moran's I analysis and time series analysis, were among the methodologies used. The findings show a weak, statistically insignificant relationship between the number of tweets and confirmed cases in a temporal context, implying that relying simply on social media data for surveillance may be insufficient. The spatial analysis provided insights into the overlaps between confirmed cases and tweet locations, shedding light on regionally targeted interventions during outbreaks. Although social media can be useful for understanding public sentiment and concerns during outbreaks, it must be combined with traditional surveillance methods and official data sources for a more accurate and comprehensive approach. Improved data mining techniques and real-time analysis can improve outbreak detection and response even further. This study underscores the need of having a strong surveillance system in place to properly monitor and manage disease outbreaks and protect public health.

Assessment of control measures against livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a farrow-to-finish pig herd using infectious disease modelling

Pigs are considered to be the main reservoir for livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA), which is a zoonotic opportunistic pathogen. As LA-MRSA is an occupational hazard, there is an incentive to control its spread in pig herds. Currently, knowledge about effective control measures which do not require culling the whole herd are limited, and the control strategies against LA-MRSA vary between countries. This study uses a stochastic compartment model to simulate possible control measures for LA-MRSA in a farrow-to-finish pig herd. The aims of the study were to (1) extend a previously published disease spread model with additional management and control measures; (2) use the extended model to study the effect of the individual LA-MRSA control measures on the within-herd LA-MRSA prevalence; (3) evaluate the effect of control measures when they are implemented in combinations. From the individual control measures tested in the study, thorough cleaning was found to be most effective in reducing the LA-MRSA prevalence in the herd. When the different control measures were combined, cleaning together with disease surveillance had the largest impact on reducing the LA-MRSA and a higher chance of causing disease elimination. The results of the study showed that achieving disease elimination once LA-MRSA had been introduced in the herd was challenging but was more likely when control measures were introduced early during the outbreak. This emphasises the importance of early detection of the pathogen and subsequent rapid implementation of LA-MRSA control measures.

The reporting of p values, confidence intervals and statistical significance in Preventive Veterinary Medicine (1997-2017)

Background

Despite much discussion in the epidemiologic literature surrounding the use of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) for inferences, the reporting practices of veterinary researchers have not been examined. We conducted a survey of articles published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine, a leading veterinary epidemiology journal, aimed at (a) estimating the frequency of reporting p values, confidence intervals and statistical significance between 1997 and 2017, (b) determining whether this varies by article section and (c) determining whether this varies over time.

Methods

We used systematic cluster sampling to select 985 original research articles from issues published in March, June, September and December of each year of the study period. Using the survey data analysis menu in Stata, we estimated overall and yearly proportions of article sections (abstracts, results-texts, results-tables and discussions) reporting p values, confidence intervals and statistical significance. Additionally, we estimated the proportion of p values less than 0.05 reported in each section, the proportion of article sections in which p values were reported as inequalities, and the proportion of article sections in which confidence intervals were interpreted as if they were significance tests. Finally, we used Generalised Estimating Equations to estimate prevalence odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals, comparing the occurrence of each of the above-mentioned reporting elements in one article section relative to another.

Results

Over the 20-year period, for every 100 published manuscripts, 31 abstracts (95% CI [28–35]), 65 results-texts (95% CI [61–68]), 23 sets of results-tables (95% CI [20–27]) and 59 discussion sections (95% CI [56–63]) reported statistical significance at least once. Only in the case of results-tables, were the numbers reporting p values (48; 95% CI [44–51]), and confidence intervals (44; 95% CI [41–48]) higher than those reporting statistical significance. We also found that a substantial proportion of p values were reported as inequalities and most were less than 0.05. The odds of a p value being less than 0.05 (OR = 4.5; 95% CI [2.3–9.0]) or being reported as an inequality (OR = 3.2; 95% CI [1.3–7.6]) was higher in the abstracts than in the results-texts. Additionally, when confidence intervals were interpreted, on most occasions they were used as surrogates for significance tests. Overall, no time trends in reporting were observed for any of the three reporting elements over the study period.

Conclusions

Despite the availability of superior approaches to statistical inference and abundant criticism of its use in the epidemiologic literature, NHST is substantially the most common means of inference in articles published in Preventive Veterinary Medicine. This pattern has not changed substantially between 1997 and 2017.

Is there an association between road building and bovine tuberculosis herd risk? A three time-point study in Ireland, 2011-2019

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium bovis which results in a significant economic cost to cattle industries and governments where it is endemic. In Ireland, the European badger is the main wildlife reservoir of infection. In this study, we investigated whether (motorway) road construction was associated with an increased risk of bTB in associated cattle herds. For this study, we considered three observation periods: pre-construction (2011-2014), construction (2015-2017) and post-construction (2018-2019). We selected 1543 herds situated, based on proximity, between >50 m and <5 km of the roadworks, and extracted information about their herd-size, herd-type, inward animal movements, bTB history, and distance to the roadworks. Generalized linear mixed models were performed, whose outcome were whether a herd experienced a bTB breakdown with ≥1 or ≥3 standard reactor/s, respectively. Herds located at a distance of >3 km from the roadworks were found to be at reduced risk of a bTB breakdown over the construction period compared with those situated within 1 km of the roadworks for ≥1 reactor/s (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.595, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI): 0.354-0.999) or ≥3 reactors (>3 km and construction vs. <1 km: OR: 0.431, 95 % CI: 0.174-1.067). Other previously reported risk factors such as inward movements, herd-size and herd-type were also associated with bTB risk in the final models (≥1 reactor/s and ≥3 reactors). These findings appear to be consistent with bTB breakdowns being a consequence as opposed to coincident to road construction, given the temporal and spatial consistency of the evidence. The potential for badger social group disturbance leading to the spatial spread of infection to cattle herds, as previously described in the United Kingdom, could be a hypothetical mechanism to explain these findings. However, our findings are not consistent with previous Irish studies, including recent work from another road construction project, albeit running alongside and cross over an existing road rather than construction of a new road as in this case, or experiences from national targeted badger removal. Further research is warranted to verify this pattern occurs elsewhere, and the underlying biological mechanism. Until further data are available, we recommend that badgers are vaccinated, as a precautionary measure, in advance of the commencement of major roadworks.

Systematic review of the status of veterinary epidemiological research in two species regarding the FAIR guiding principles

Background

The FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) principles were proposed in 2016 to set a path towards reusability of research datasets. In this systematic review, we assessed the FAIRness of datasets associated with peer-reviewed articles in veterinary epidemiology research published since 2017, specifically looking at salmonids and dairy cattle. We considered the differences in practices between molecular epidemiology, the branch of epidemiology using genetic sequences of pathogens and hosts to describe disease patterns, and non-molecular epidemiology.

Results

A total of 152 articles were included in the assessment. Consistent with previous assessments conducted in other disciplines, our results showed that most datasets used in non-molecular epidemiological studies were not available (i.e., neither findable nor accessible). Data availability was much higher for molecular epidemiology papers, in line with a strong repository base available to scientists in this discipline. The available data objects generally scored favourably for Findable, Accessible and Reusable indicators, but Interoperability was more problematic.

Conclusions

None of the datasets assessed in this study met all the requirements set by the FAIR principles. Interoperability, in particular, requires specific skills in data management which may not yet be broadly available in the epidemiology community. In the discussion, we present recommendations on how veterinary research could move towards greater reusability according to FAIR principles. Overall, although many initiatives to improve data access have been started in the research community, their impact on the availability of datasets underlying published articles remains unclear to date.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12917-021-02971-1.

Whole genome sequencing analysis of avian pathogenic Escherichia coli from China

Avian pathogenic Escherichia coli (APEC) can cause localized or systemic infection in poultry herds, i.e., colibacillosis, which is an economically devastating bacterial disease of the poultry industry worldwide. Additionally, some APEC may have zoonotic potential. In this study, we sequenced 125 APEC isolates from chickens and ducks with obvious clinical symptoms in poultry farms in China and performed genomic epidemiological analysis along with 16 APEC reference genomes downloaded from NCBI. The phylogenetic analysis indicated a great diversity of APEC isolates, and a total of 35 different O types, 22 H types, and 29 ST types were identified. Several virulence-associated genes (VAGs), such as ompT (96.45 %), iss (97.87 %), and hlyF (90.78 %), as well as four complete siderophore gene clusters, including the Sit transport system (86.52 %), aerobactin (89.36 %), salmochelin (79.43 %), and yersiniabactin (54.61 %), were detected in APEC isolates with high prevalence, which could serve as virulence markers of APEC. Several virulence-associated gene clusters, including the two T6SS systems and the K1 capsule biosynthesis gene clusters, were significantly associated with APEC of phylogroups B2, D, and F but very rarely encoded by the APEC from phylogroups C and E. In addition, several virulence-associated genes, which have been reported in other E. coli pathotypes but have not been reported in APEC, were identified in this study. Our findings in this study have implications for a better understanding of APEC evolution and pathogenesis and may lead to the development of new diagnostic tools for APEC.

Factors associated with medical problems among young non-deployed U.S. military working dogs

The goals of this project were to quantify medical problems among a population of Military Working Dogs (MWDs) and analyze factors associated with common medical conditions. Medical conditions recorded in veterinary Master Problem List (MPL) entries for 774 young, non-deployed, active MWDs were categorized and combined with demographic information to analyze risk factors. Most dogs were male (74%), German Shepherd (39%) or Belgian Malinois (31%) breeds, certified in Explosive Detection (60%), and had a dark coat color (83%). Ages ranged from one to six years, with an average of 2.6 years (± 0.5 years). Eighty-three percent of dogs had a non-surgical medical problem in their record. The most common non-surgical medical problems were dermatologic (25% of MPL entries), alimentary (21%), dental (15%), soft-tissue injury (10%), and musculoskeletal conditions (4%). Factors associated with each medical condition were breed (Odds Ratios 1.96-8.24), sex and spay/neuter status (ORs 1.78-5.77), occupational duty certification (ORs 2.65-3.62), military command location (ORs 2.32-7.44), and military branch (OR 5.16). As MWDs are a valuable asset for the Department of Defense, training and work conditions for the identified at-risk groups of MWDs should be further assessed to maximize their operational capabilities and assess the potential to serve as sentinel indicators for human diseases. Improved understanding of the most common medical problems affecting MWDs, and the identification of factors associated with these conditions, can help drive changes in their preventive care.

Epidemiological investigation of porcine circovirus type 2 and its coinfection rate in Shandong province in China from 2015 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) is one of the crucial swine viral pathogens, caused porcine circovirus associated diseases (PCVAD). Shandong province is one of the most important pork producing areas and bears a considerable economic loss due to PCVAD. However, there is limited information on epidemiology and coinfection rate of PCV2 with other critical swine diseases in this area, such as porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), classical swine fever virus (CSFV), Pseudorabies virus (PRV), and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV).

RESULTS

Overall, 89.59% serum samples and 36.98% tissue samples were positive for PCV2 specified ELISA and PCR positive for PCV2, respectively. The coinfection rates of PCV2 with PRRSV, PRV, CSFV, and PEDV were 26.73%, 18.37%, 13.06%, and 3.47%, respectively. Moreover, genetic characteristic of PCV2 were analyzed based on the cap genes showing that PCV2d is the dominant sub-genotype circulating in the province.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings reveal that PCV2d, as the dominant strain, is prevailing in pig farms in Shandong province at high levels. There was a high frequency of coinfection of PCV2 and PRRSV.

A dynamic model for spread of livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus on a pig farm, incorporating bacterial load and human exposure through air

Livestock-associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (LA-MRSA) is widely distributed in the pig population in many countries, where its presence is undesirable, because as an opportunistic human pathogen, it poses a threat to human health. At present, there is a lack of knowledge regarding successful methods for eradication of LA-MRSA on a pig farm, which does not involve emptying the farm and culling all pigs. Some studies have reported an association between levels of LA-MRSA in the barn air and LA-MRSA carriage among humans entering or working in the pig barns. Therefore, interventions that are able to reduce the amount of LA-MRSA carried by the pigs and/or the concentration of LA-MRSA in the barn air, might be highly relevant if aiming for reducing the spread of LA-MRSA into the general human population. In the present study, an existing agent-based simulation model for spread of LA-MRSA within a pig herd was extended to also include LA-MRSA load and spread through air. This makes it possible to use the model for studying the air exposure to LA-MRSA for humans entering the pig barns. The model was used for simulating various types of interventions in contaminated herds. At present quantitative data for nasal carriage of LA-MRSA in pigs are sparse, and many knowledge gaps regarding spread of LA-MRSA remain. Thus, our goal of building this model was not to provide exact values for risk reduction, but to avail a model that can be used for studying the effect of various types of interventions mechanistically, once more relevant data become available. Collection of more data on the influence of load is crucial for getting a better understanding of which possible interventions strategies, that might still have some potential in countries, where LA-MRSA has already spread to the majority of the pig population.

Post-mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis in Ireland: herd-level variation in the probability of herds disclosed with lesions at routine slaughter to have skin test reactors at follow-up test

Post-mortem surveillance in Ireland discloses skin-test negative cattle with presumptive evidence of infection of Mycobacterium bovis (lesions at routine slaughter (LRS)), the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). Laboratory confirmation of lesions has impacts on trade restrictions for herds, therefore if laboratory capacity was diminished, how herds are treated would require an informed risk policy. Here we report the proportion of herds with subsequent evidence of within-herd transmission, based on skin-test results. We assess how herd-size, herd-type, and bTB-history affect the probability of additional reactors at follow-up test using univariable and multivariable random-effects models. The study represents a rapid response to developing an evidential base for policy demands during an extraordinary event, the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland. A dataset from 2005 to 2019 of breakdowns were collated. Overall, 20,116 breakdowns were initiated by LRS cases. During the index tests of these breakdowns, 3931 revealed ≥1 skin-test reactor animals (19.54%; ≥1 standard reactors: 3827; 19.02%). Increasing herd-size was associated with reactor disclosure on follow-up. For small herds (<33 animals), 11.74% of follow-up tests disclosed ≥1 reactor; 24.63% of follow-up tests from very large herds (>137) disclosed ≥1 reactors. Beef (13.87%) and “other” (13%) herd production types had lower proportion of index tests with reactors in comparison with dairy (28.27%) or suckler (20.48%) herds. Historic breakdown size during the previous 3-years was associated reactor disclosure risk on follow-up. Our results are useful for rapid tailored policy development aimed at identifying higher risk herds.

Bovine tuberculosis breakdown duration in cattle herds: an investigation of herd, host, pathogen and wildlife risk factors

Background

Despite rigorous controls placed on herds which disclose ante-mortem test positive cattle to bovine tuberculosis, caused by the infection of Mycobacterium bovis, many herds in Northern Ireland (NI) experience prolonged breakdowns. These herds represent a considerable administrative and financial burden to the State and farming community.

Methods

A retrospective observational study was conducted to better understand the factors associated with breakdown duration, which was modelled using both negative binomial and ordinal regression approaches.

Results

Six explanatory variables were important predictors of breakdown length in both models; herd size, the number of reactors testing positive in the initial SICCT test, the presence of a lesioned animal at routine slaughter (LRS), the count of M. bovis genotypes during the breakdown (MLVA richness), the local herd-level bTB prevalence, and the presence of herds linked via management factors (associated herds). We report that between 2008 and 2014, mean breakdown duration in NI was 226 days (approx. seven months; median: 188 days). In the same period, however, more than 6% of herds in the region remained under movement restriction for more than 420 days (13 months); almost twice as long as the mean. The MLVA richness variable was a particularly important predictor of breakdown duration. We contend that this variable primarily represents a proxy for beef fattening herds, which can operate by purchasing cattle and selling animals straight to slaughter, despite prolonged trading restrictions. For other herd types, the model supports the hypothesis that prolonged breakdowns are a function of both residual infection within the herd, and infection from the environment (e.g. infected wildlife, contiguous herds and/or a contaminated environment). The impact of badger density on breakdown duration was assessed by including data on main sett (burrow) density. Whilst a positive association was observed in the univariate analysis, confounding with other variables means that the contribution of badgers to prolonged breakdowns was not clear from our study. We do not fully reject the hypothesis that badgers are implicated in prolonging bTB breakdowns via spillback infection, but given our results, we posit that increased disease risk from badgers is unlikely to simply be a function of increasing badger density measured using sett metrics.

Poultry population dynamics and mortality risks in smallholder farms of the Mekong river delta region

BACKGROUND

Poultry farming is widely practiced by rural households in Vietnam and the vast majority of domestic birds are kept on small household farms. However, smallholder poultry production is constrained by several issues such as infectious diseases, including avian influenza viruses whose circulation remains a threat to public health. This observational study describes the demographic structure and dynamics of small-scale poultry farms of the Mekong river delta region.

METHOD

Fifty three farms were monitored over a 20-month period, with farm sizes, species, age, arrival/departure of poultry, and farm management practices recorded monthly.

RESULTS

Median flock population sizes were 16 for chickens (IQR: 10-40), 32 for ducks (IQR: 18-101) and 11 for Muscovy ducks (IQR: 7-18); farm size distributions for the three species were heavily right-skewed. Muscovy ducks were kept for long periods and outdoors, while chickens and ducks were farmed indoors or in pens. Ducks had a markedly higher removal rate (broilers: 0.14/week; layer/breeders: 0.05/week) than chickens and Muscovy ducks (broilers: 0.07/week; layer/breeders: 0.01-0.02/week) and a higher degree of specialization resulting in a substantially shorter life span. The rate of mortality due to disease did not differ much among species, with birds being less likely to die from disease at older ages, but frequency of disease symptoms differed by species. Time series of disease-associated mortality were correlated with population size for Muscovy ducks (Kendall's coefficient τ = 0.49, p-value < 0.01) and with frequency of outdoor grazing for ducks (τ = 0.33, p-value = 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The study highlights some challenges to disease control in small-scale multispecies poultry farms. The rate of interspecific contact and overlap between flocks of different ages is high, making small-scale farms a suitable environment for pathogens circulation. Muscovy ducks are farmed outdoors with little investment in biosecurity and few inter-farm movements. Ducks and chickens are more at-risk of introduction of pathogens through movements of birds from one farm to another. Ducks are farmed in large flocks with high turnover and, as a result, are more vulnerable to disease spread and require a higher vaccination coverage to maintain herd immunity.

The application of epidemiology in national veterinary services: Challenges and threats in Brazil

The application of epidemiology in national veterinary services must take place at the interface between science and politics. Animal health policy development and implementation require attention to macro-epidemiology, the study of economic, social and policy inputs that affect the distribution and impact of animal or human disease at the national level. The world has changed fast over the last three decades including the delivery of veterinary services, their remit and the challenges addressed by public and animal health policies. Rethinking the role of public services and how to make public programs more efficient has been at the heart of the political discussion. The WTO through its SPS Agreement has changed the way in which national veterinary services operate and how trade decisions are made. Most low and middle income countries are still struggling to keep up with the new international scene. Some of these countries, such as Brazil, have very important livestock industries and are key to the global food systems. Over the last two decades, Brazil became a leading player in exports of livestock products, including poultry, and this created a strong pressure on the national veterinary services to respond to trade demands, leading to focus animal health policies on the export-driven sector. During the same period, Brazil has gone a long way in the direction of integrating epidemiology with veterinary services. Epidemiology groups grew at main universities and have been working with government to provide support to animal health policy. The scope and quality of the applied epidemiological work improved and focused on complex data analysis and development of technologies and tools to solve specific disease problems. Many public veterinary officers were trained in modern epidemiological methods. However, there are important institutional bottlenecks that limit the impact of epidemiology in evidence-based decision making. More complex challenges require high levels of expertise in veterinary epidemiology, as well as institutional models that provide an appropriate environment for building and sustaining capacity in national veterinary services. Integrating epidemiology with animal health policy is a great opportunity if epidemiologists can understand the real issues, including the socio-economic dimensions of disease management, and focus on innovation and production of knowledge. It may be a trap if epidemiologists are restricted to answering specific decision-making questions and policy makers perceive their role exclusively as data analysts or providers of technological solutions. Fostering solutions for complex issues is key to successful integration with policy making.

Using exceedance probabilities to detect anomalies in routinely recorded animal health data, with particular reference to foot-and-mouth disease in Viet Nam

The widespread availability of computer hardware and software for recording and storing disease event information means that, in theory, we have the necessary information to carry out detailed analyses of factors influencing the spatial distribution of disease in animal populations. However, the reliability of such analyses depends on data quality, with anomalous records having the potential to introduce significant bias and lead to inappropriate decision making. In this paper we promote the use of exceedance probabilities as a tool for detecting anomalies when applying hierarchical spatio-temporal models to animal health data. We illustrate this methodology through a case study data on outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Viet Nam for the period 2006-2008. A flexible binomial logistic regression was employed to model the number of FMD infected communes within each province of the country. Standard analyses of the residuals from this model failed to identify problems, but exceedance probabilities identified provinces in which the number of reported FMD outbreaks was unexpectedly low. This finding is interesting given that these provinces are on major cattle movement pathways through Viet Nam.

Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology

The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets.