BALAD and BALAD-2 predict survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a North American cohort study

BACKGROUND

The BALAD score and BALAD-2 class derived from bilirubin, albumin, AFP, AFP-L3, and des-gamma-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) are effective in predicting mortality in HCC, but have not been validated in North America.

METHODS

148 HCC patients from 2000 to 2015 who had all five biomarkers tested at diagnosis were included. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated.

RESULTS

75 patients died during a median follow-up of 21.9 months. 1-and 3-year survival rates were 70.8% and 47.6%. 114 (77%) had cirrhosis. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.24 (0.42-3.67), 1.79 (0.61-5.26), 2.83 (0.95-8.38), and 7.19 (2.26-22.91) for BALAD scores 1, 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD 0. The HR (95%CI) for death were 1.25 (0.65-2.40), 1.75 (0.94-3.23), and 6.20 (3.29-11.68) for BALAD-2 classes 2, 3, and 4 vs. BALAD-2 class 1. A multivariate model incorporating maximal tumor diameter, tumor number, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and BALAD had HR of 1.43 (1.14-1.81) per increase of 1 BALAD score. A similar model with BALAD-2 had HR of 1.50 (1.18-1.90) per increase of 1 BALAD-2 class.

CONCLUSION

BALAD models at diagnosis can predict the survival of HCC patients in North America. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP reflect tumor progression and metastasis of HCC and distinguish the BALAD model from other predictive models.

Usefulness of AFP, AFP-L3, and PIVKA-II, and their combinations in diagnosing hepatocellular carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), Lens culinaris-agglutinin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) are widely used as tumor markers for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study compared the diagnostic values of AFP, AFP-L3, and PIVKA-II individually and in combination to find the best biomarker or biomarker panel.Seventy-nine patients with newly diagnosed HCC and 77 non-HCC control patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled. AFP, AFP-L3, and PIVKA-II were measured in the same serum samples using microchip capillary electrophoresis and a liquid-phase binding assay on an automatic analyzer. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analyses were also applied to all combinations of the markers.When the 3 biomarkers were analyzed individually, AFP showed the largest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) (0.751). For combinations of the biomarkers, the AUC was highest (0.765) for "PIVKA-II > 40 mAU/mL and AFP > 10 ng/mL." The combination of "PIVKA-II > 40 mAU/mL and AFP > 10 ng/mL and AFP-L3 > 10%" had worse sensitivity and lower AUC (P = 0.001). The highest AUC of a single biomarker was highest for AFP and of a combination was "PIVKA-II > 40 mAU/mL and AFP > 10 ng/mL," with this also being the case when the cut-off value of AFP and AFP-L3 was changed.Alpha-fetoprotein showed the best diagnostic performance as a single biomarker for HCC. The diagnostic value of AFP was improved by combining it with PIVKA-II, but adding AFP-L3 did not contribute to the ability to distinguish between HCC and non-HCC liver cirrhosis. These findings were not altered when the cut-off value of AFP and AFP-L3 was changed.

Biomarker-based prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma: validation and extension of the BALAD model

BACKGROUND

The Japanese 'BALAD' model offers the first objective, biomarker-based, tool for assessment of prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma, but relies on dichotomisation of the constituent data, has not been externally validated, and cannot be applied to the individual patients.

METHODS

In this Japanese/UK collaboration, we replicated the original BALAD model on a UK cohort and then built a new model, BALAD-2, on the original raw Japanese data using variables in their continuous form. Regression analyses using flexible parametric models with fractional polynomials enabled fitting of appropriate baseline hazard functions and functional form of covariates. The resulting models were validated in the respective cohorts to measure the predictive performance.

RESULTS

The key prognostic features were confirmed to be Bilirubin and Albumin together with the serological cancer biomarkers, AFP-L3, AFP, and DCP. With appropriate recalibration, the model offered clinically relevant discrimination of prognosis in both the Japanese and UK data sets and accurately predicted patient-level survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The original BALAD model has been validated in an international setting. The refined BALAD-2 model permits estimation of patient-level survival in UK and Japanese cohorts.