Timescale reverses the relationship between host density and infection risk

Host density shapes infection risk through two opposing phenomena. First, when infective stages are subdivided among multiple hosts, greater host densities decrease infection risk through 'safety in numbers'. Hosts, however, represent resources for parasites, and greater host availability also fuels parasite reproduction. Hence, host density increases infection risk through 'density-dependent transmission'. Theory proposes that these phenomena are not disparate outcomes but occur over different timescales. That is, higher host densities may reduce short-term infection risk, but because they support parasite reproduction, may increase long-term risk. We tested this theory in a zooplankton-disease system with laboratory experiments and field observations. Supporting theory, we found that negative density-risk relationships (safety in numbers) sometimes emerged over short timescales, but these relationships reversed to 'density-dependent transmission' within two generations. By allowing parasite numerical responses to play out, time can shift the consequences of host density, from reduced immediate risk to amplified future risk.

Counterintuitive scaling between population abundance and local density: Implications for modelling transmission of infectious diseases in bat populations

Models of host-pathogen interactions help to explain infection dynamics in wildlife populations and to predict and mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover. Insights from models inherently depend on the way contacts between hosts are modelled, and crucially, how transmission scales with animal density. Bats are important reservoirs of zoonotic disease and are among the most gregarious of all mammals. Their population structures can be highly heterogeneous, underpinned by ecological processes across different scales, complicating assumptions regarding the nature of contacts and transmission. Although models commonly parameterise transmission using metrics of total abundance, whether this is an ecologically representative approximation of host-pathogen interactions is not routinely evaluated. We collected a 13-month dataset of tree-roosting Pteropus spp. from 2,522 spatially referenced trees across eight roosts to empirically evaluate the relationship between total roost abundance and tree-level measures of abundance and density-the scale most likely to be relevant for virus transmission. We also evaluate whether roost features at different scales (roost level, subplot level, tree level) are predictive of these local density dynamics. Roost-level features were not representative of tree-level abundance (bats per tree) or tree-level density (bats per m² or m³ ), with roost-level models explaining minimal variation in tree-level measures. Total roost abundance itself was either not a significant predictor (tree-level 3D density) or only weakly predictive (tree-level abundance). This indicates that basic measures, such as total abundance of bats in a roost, may not provide adequate approximations for population dynamics at scales relevant for transmission, and that alternative measures are needed to compare transmission potential between roosts. From the best candidate models, the strongest predictor of local population structure was tree density within roosts, where roosts with low tree density had a higher abundance but lower density of bats (more spacing between bats) per tree. Together, these data highlight unpredictable and counterintuitive relationships between total abundance and local density. More nuanced modelling of transmission, spread and spillover from bats likely requires alternative approaches to integrating contact structure in host-pathogen models, rather than simply modifying the transmission function.

Frequency-dependent transmission of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in eastern newts

Transmission is the fundamental process whereby pathogens infect their hosts and spread through populations, and can be characterized using mathematical functions. The functional form of transmission for emerging pathogens can determine pathogen impacts on host populations and can inform the efficacy of disease management strategies. By directly measuring transmission between infected and susceptible adult eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) in aquatic mesocosms, we identified the most plausible transmission function for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Although we considered a range of possible transmission functions, we found that Bsal transmission was best explained by pure frequency dependence. We observed that >90% of susceptible newts became infected within 17 days post‐exposure to an infected newt across a range of host densities and initial infection prevalence treatments. Under these conditions, we estimated R₀ = 4.9 for Bsal in an eastern newt population. Our results suggest that Bsal has the capability of driving eastern newt populations to extinction and that managing host density may not be an effective management strategy. Intervention strategies that prevent Bsal introduction or increase host resistance or tolerance to infection may be more effective. Our results add to the growing empirical evidence that transmission of wildlife pathogens can saturate and be functionally frequency‐dependent.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Resistance, tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load-dependent amphibian disease

While disease-induced extinction is generally considered rare, a number of recently emerging infectious diseases with load-dependent pathology have led to extinction in wildlife populations. Transmission is a critical factor affecting disease-induced extinction, but the relative importance of transmission compared to load-dependent host resistance and tolerance is currently unknown. Using a combination of models and experiments on an amphibian species suffering extirpations from the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), we show that while transmission from an environmental Bd reservoir increased the ability of Bd to invade an amphibian population and the extinction risk of that population, Bd-induced extinction dynamics were far more sensitive to host resistance and tolerance than to Bd transmission. We demonstrate that this is a general result for load-dependent pathogens, where non-linear resistance and tolerance functions can interact such that small changes in these functions lead to drastic changes in extinction dynamics.

Parasite responses to large mammal loss in an African savanna

Biodiversity loss can alter disease transmission; however, the magnitude and direction of these effects vary widely across ecosystems, scales, and pathogens. Here we experimentally examine the effects of one of the most globally pervasive patterns of biodiversity decline, the selective loss of large wildlife, on infection probability, intensity and population size of a group of common rodent-borne parasites - macroparasitic helminths. Consistent with previous work on vector-borne pathogens, we found that large wildlife removal causes strong and systematic increases of rodent-borne parasites, largely due to increases in rodent density, as rodents are released from competition with larger herbivores. Although we predicted that increased host density would also increase per capita infection among all directly transmitted parasites, this additional amplification occurred for only two of three examined parasites. Furthermore, the actual effects of large mammal loss on per capita infection were mediated by the complex suite of abiotic and biotic factors that regulate parasite transmission. Thus, while these results strongly suggest that large wildlife loss will cause systematic increases in rodent parasite populations, they also underscore the difficulty of making more specific predictions for a given parasite based on simple attributes such as transmission mode or life history strategy. Instead, detailed information on the ecology of each parasite species would be necessary to make more accurate predictions of how biodiversity loss will affect infection.