Diagnostic Prediction of portal vein thrombosis in chronic cirrhosis patients using data-driven precision medicine model

BACKGROUND

Portal vein thrombosis (PVT) is a significant issue in cirrhotic patients, necessitating early detection. This study aims to develop a data-driven predictive model for PVT diagnosis in chronic hepatitis liver cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

We employed data from a total of 816 chronic cirrhosis patients with PVT, divided into the Lanzhou cohort (n = 468) for training and the Jilin cohort (n = 348) for validation. This dataset encompassed a wide range of variables, including general characteristics, blood parameters, ultrasonography findings and cirrhosis grading. To build our predictive model, we employed a sophisticated stacking approach, which included Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naïve Bayes and Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA).

RESULTS

In the Lanzhou cohort, SVM and Naïve Bayes classifiers effectively classified PVT cases from non-PVT cases, among the top features of which seven were shared: Portal Velocity (PV), Prothrombin Time (PT), Portal Vein Diameter (PVD), Prothrombin Time Activity (PTA), Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT), age and Child-Pugh score (CPS). The QDA model, trained based on the seven shared features on the Lanzhou cohort and validated on the Jilin cohort, demonstrated significant differentiation between PVT and non-PVT cases (AUROC = 0.73 and AUROC = 0.86, respectively). Subsequently, comparative analysis showed that our QDA model outperformed several other machine learning methods.

CONCLUSION

Our study presents a comprehensive data-driven model for PVT diagnosis in cirrhotic patients, enhancing clinical decision-making. The SVM-Naïve Bayes-QDA model offers a precise approach to managing PVT in this population.

Diagnosing psychiatric disorders from history of present illness using a large-scale linguistic model

AIM

Recent advances in natural language processing models are expected to provide diagnostic assistance in psychiatry from the history of present illness (HPI). However, existing studies have been limited, with the target diseases including only major diseases, small sample sizes, or no comparison with diagnoses made by psychiatrists to ensure accuracy. Therefore, we formulated an accurate diagnostic model that covers all psychiatric disorders.

METHODS

HPIs and diagnoses were extracted from discharge summaries of 2,642 cases at the Nara Medical University Hospital, Japan, from 21 May 2007, to 31 May 31 2021. The diagnoses were classified into 11 classes according to the code from ICD-10 Chapter V. Using UTH-BERT pre-trained on the electronic medical records of the University of Tokyo Hospital, Japan, we predicted the main diagnoses at discharge based on HPIs and compared the concordance rate with the results of psychiatrists. The psychiatrists were divided into two groups: semi-Designated with 3-4 years of experience and Residents with only 2 months of experience.

RESULTS

The model's match rate was 74.3%, compared to 71.5% for the semi-Designated psychiatrists and 69.4% for the Residents. If the cases were limited to those correctly answered by the semi-Designated group, the model and the Residents performed at 84.9% and 83.3%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated that the model matched the diagnosis predicted from the HPI with a high probability to the principal diagnosis at discharge. Hence, the model can provide diagnostic suggestions in actual clinical practice.

Prediction of the development of contrast‑induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary artery intervention by machine learning

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is associated with increased mortality and morbidity in patients with coronary artery disease undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI). We developed a machine learning-based risk stratification model to predict contrast-induced nephropathy after PCI. A study retrospectively enrolling 240 patients eligible for PCI from December 2017 to May 2020 was performed. CIN was defined as a rise in serum creatinine levels ≥0.5 mg/dL or ≥25% from baseline within 72 h after surgery. Eight machine learning methods were performed based on clinical variables. Shapley Additive exPlanation values were also used to interpret the best-performing prediction models. Development of CIN was found in 37 patients(16.5%) after PCI. There were 11 significant predictors of CIN, including uric acid, peripheral vascular disease, cystatin C, creatine kinase-MB, haemoglobin, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, age, diabetes, systemic immune-inflammatory index, total protein, and low-density lipoprotein. Regarding the efficacy of the machine learning model that accurately predicted CIN, SVM exhibited the most outstanding AUC value of 0.784. The SHAP and radar plots were used to illustrate the positive and negative effects of the 11 features attributed to the SVM. Machine learning models have the potential to identify the risk of CIN for elective PCI patients.

Examining the Use of an Artificial Intelligence Model to Diagnose Influenza: Development and Validation Study

BACKGROUND

The global burden of influenza is substantial. It is a major disease that causes annual epidemics and occasionally, pandemics. Given that influenza primarily infects the upper respiratory system, it may be possible to diagnose influenza infection by applying deep learning to pharyngeal images.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop a deep learning model to diagnose influenza infection using pharyngeal images and clinical information.

METHODS

We recruited patients who visited clinics and hospitals because of influenza-like symptoms. In the training stage, we developed a diagnostic prediction artificial intelligence (AI) model based on deep learning to predict polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed influenza from pharyngeal images and clinical information. In the validation stage, we assessed the diagnostic performance of the AI model. In additional analysis, we compared the diagnostic performance of the AI model with that of 3 physicians and interpreted the AI model using importance heat maps.

RESULTS

We enrolled a total of 7831 patients at 64 hospitals between November 1, 2019, and January 21, 2020, in the training stage and 659 patients (including 196 patients with PCR-confirmed influenza) at 11 hospitals between January 25, 2020, and March 13, 2020, in the validation stage. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the AI model was 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93), and its sensitivity and specificity were 76% (70%-82%) and 88% (85%-91%), respectively, outperforming 3 physicians. In the importance heat maps, the AI model often focused on follicles on the posterior pharyngeal wall.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed the first AI model that can accurately diagnose influenza from pharyngeal images, which has the potential to help physicians to make a timely diagnosis.

Acoustic and Facial Features From Clinical Interviews for Machine Learning-Based Psychiatric Diagnosis: Algorithm Development

BACKGROUND

In contrast to all other areas of medicine, psychiatry is still nearly entirely reliant on subjective assessments such as patient self-report and clinical observation. The lack of objective information on which to base clinical decisions can contribute to reduced quality of care. Behavioral health clinicians need objective and reliable patient data to support effective targeted interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate whether reliable inferences-psychiatric signs, symptoms, and diagnoses-can be extracted from audiovisual patterns in recorded evaluation interviews of participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar disorder.

METHODS

We obtained audiovisual data from 89 participants (mean age 25.3 years; male: 48/89, 53.9%; female: 41/89, 46.1%): individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (n=41), individuals with bipolar disorder (n=21), and healthy volunteers (n=27). We developed machine learning models based on acoustic and facial movement features extracted from participant interviews to predict diagnoses and detect clinician-coded neuropsychiatric symptoms, and we assessed model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) in 5-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

The model successfully differentiated between schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar disorder (AUROC 0.73) when aggregating face and voice features. Facial action units including cheek-raising muscle (AUROC 0.64) and chin-raising muscle (AUROC 0.74) provided the strongest signal for men. Vocal features, such as energy in the frequency band 1 to 4 kHz (AUROC 0.80) and spectral harmonicity (AUROC 0.78), provided the strongest signal for women. Lip corner-pulling muscle signal discriminated between diagnoses for both men (AUROC 0.61) and women (AUROC 0.62). Several psychiatric signs and symptoms were successfully inferred: blunted affect (AUROC 0.81), avolition (AUROC 0.72), lack of vocal inflection (AUROC 0.71), asociality (AUROC 0.63), and worthlessness (AUROC 0.61).

CONCLUSIONS

This study represents advancement in efforts to capitalize on digital data to improve diagnostic assessment and supports the development of a new generation of innovative clinical tools by employing acoustic and facial data analysis.

Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma

Thyroid nodules (TNs) represent a common scenario. More accurate pre-operative diagnosis of malignancy has become an overriding concern. This study incorporated demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data and aimed to compare a new diagnostic prediction model based on Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with multivariate logistic regression model, to guide the decision of surgery. Records of 2,090 patients with TNs who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that Bethesda category (OR=1.90, P<0.001), TIRADS (OR=2.55, P<0.001), age (OR=0.97, P=0.002), nodule size (OR=0.53, P<0.001), and serum levels of Tg (OR=0.994, P=0.004) and HDL-C (OR=0.23, P=0.001) were statistically significant independent differentiators for patients with PTC and benign nodules. Both BPNN and regression models showed good accuracy in differentiating PTC from benign nodules (area under the curve [AUC], 0.948 and 0.924, respectively). Notably, the BPNN model showed a higher specificity (88.3% vs. 73.9%) and negative predictive value (83.7% vs. 45.8%) than the regression model, while the sensitivity (93.1% vs. 93.9%) was similar between two models. Stratified analysis based on Bethesda indeterminate cytology categories showed similar findings. Therefore, BPNN and regression models based on a combination of demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data, all of which were readily available in routine clinical practice, might help guide the decision of surgery for TNs.

Utilizing Machine Learning on Internet Search Activity to Support the Diagnostic Process and Relapse Detection in Young Individuals With Early Psychosis: Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

Psychiatry is nearly entirely reliant on patient self-reporting, and there are few objective and reliable tests or sources of collateral information available to help diagnostic and assessment procedures. Technology offers opportunities to collect objective digital data to complement patient experience and facilitate more informed treatment decisions.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to develop computational algorithms based on internet search activity designed to support diagnostic procedures and relapse identification in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

METHODS

We extracted 32,733 time-stamped search queries across 42 participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders and 74 healthy volunteers between the ages of 15 and 35 (mean 24.4 years, 44.0% male), and built machine-learning diagnostic and relapse classifiers utilizing the timing, frequency, and content of online search activity.

RESULTS

Classifiers predicted a diagnosis of schizophrenia spectrum disorders with an area under the curve value of 0.74 and predicted a psychotic relapse in individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders with an area under the curve of 0.71. Compared with healthy participants, those with schizophrenia spectrum disorders made fewer searches and their searches consisted of fewer words. Prior to a relapse hospitalization, participants with schizophrenia spectrum disorders were more likely to use words related to hearing, perception, and anger, and were less likely to use words related to health.

CONCLUSIONS

Online search activity holds promise for gathering objective and easily accessed indicators of psychiatric symptoms. Utilizing search activity as collateral behavioral health information would represent a major advancement in efforts to capitalize on objective digital data to improve mental health monitoring.

Distributed Intrinsic Functional Connectivity Patterns Predict Diagnostic Status in Large Autism Cohort

Diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) currently relies on behavioral observations because brain markers are unknown. Machine learning approaches can identify patterns in imaging data that predict diagnostic status, but most studies using functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI) data achieved only modest accuracies of 60-80%. We used conditional random forest (CRF), an ensemble learning technique protected against bias from feature correlation (which exists in fcMRI matrices). We selected 252 low-motion resting-state functional MRI scans from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange, including 126 typically developing (TD) and 126 ASD participants, matched for age, nonverbal IQ, and head motion. A matrix of functional connectivities between 220 functionally defined regions of interest was used for diagnostic classification. In several runs, we achieved accuracies of 92-99% for classifiers with >300 features (most informative connections). Features, including pericentral somatosensory and motor regions, were disproportionately informative. Findings differed partially from a previous study in the same sample that used feature selection with random forest (which is biased by feature correlations). External validation in a smaller in-house data set, however, achieved only 67-71% accuracy. The large number of features in optimal models can be attributed to etiological heterogeneity under the clinical ASD umbrella. Lower accuracy in external validation is expected due to differences in unknown composition of ASD variants across samples. High accuracy in the main data set is unlikely due to noise overfitting, but rather indicates optimized characterization of a given cohort.

Evaluation of the ability of cervical length and fetal fibronectin measurement to predict preterm delivery in asymptomatic women with risk factors

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the power of transvaginal ultrasound cervical length (CL) and fetal fibronectin (fFN) measurement for the prediction of preterm delivery (PTD) in asymptomatic women with risk factors.

METHODS

Between January 2010 and October 2012, 218 women with singleton pregnancies and a high risk for PTD (i.e. prior history of PTD, cervical surgeries, late miscarriages, uterine abnormalities or premature rupture of the membranes) were selected. CL was measured by transvaginal ultrasonography between 14 and 22 weeks, and a CL<2.5 cm was considered to be short. The fFN was measured with a sterile speculum examination. The primary outcome was the spontaneous PTD rate at <34(+0) and <37(+0) weeks, and the PTD rate was analyzed by either of two methods alone or combined.

RESULTS

There were 213 cases included in the analysis, and 47 women (22.1%) had positive fFN. The average CL of women with positive fFN (2.3 ± 0.9 cm) was significantly shorter than that of women with negative fFN (3.1 ± 0.8 cm; p=0.02). There were 25 (11.7%) and 38 (18.8%) cases with PTD at <34(+0) and <37(+0) weeks, respectively. By individual analyses, the highest PTD rate was 51.2% in women with positive fFN at <37(+0) weeks. The sensitivity and diagnostic efficiency values for PTD prediction by CL were low at <34(+0) and <37(+0) weeks. The values of diagnostic efficiency by fFN were >80% at <34(+0) and <37(+0) weeks. In the combined analysis, the highest PTD rate was 57.1% in women with CL ≤ 2.5 cm and positive fFN at <37(+0) weeks. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that there were significant differences among the four groups (χ(2)=54.261; p=0.000).

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate a significant correlation between fFN and PTD prediction. The PTD prediction could be enhanced by combined CL and fFN measurement.