Comparing modeling methods of genomic prediction for growth traits of a tropical timber species, Shorea macrophylla

Introduction

Shorea macrophylla is a commercially important tropical tree species grown for timber and oil. It is amenable to plantation forestry due to its fast initial growth. Genomic selection (GS) has been used in tree breeding studies to shorten long breeding cycles but has not previously been applied to S. macrophylla.

Methods

To build genomic prediction models for GS, leaves and growth trait data were collected from a half-sib progeny population of S. macrophylla in Sari Bumi Kusuma forest concession, central Kalimantan, Indonesia. 18037 SNP markers were identified in two ddRAD-seq libraries. Genomic prediction models based on these SNPs were then generated for diameter at breast height and total height in the 7th year from planting (D7 and H7).

Results and discussion

These traits were chosen because of their relatively high narrow-sense genomic heritability and because seven years was considered long enough to assess initial growth. Genomic prediction models were built using 6 methods and their derivatives with the full set of identified SNPs and subsets of 48, 96, and 192 SNPs selected based on the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS). The GBLUP and RKHS methods gave the highest predictive ability for D7 and H7 with the sets of selected SNPs and showed that D7 has an additive genetic architecture while H7 has an epistatic genetic architecture. LightGBM and CNN1D also achieved high predictive abilities for D7 with 48 and 96 selected SNPs, and for H7 with 96 and 192 selected SNPs, showing that gradient boosting decision trees and deep learning can be useful in genomic prediction. Predictive abilities were higher in H7 when smaller number of SNP subsets selected by GWAS p-value was used, However, D7 showed the contrary tendency, which might have originated from the difference in genetic architecture between primary and secondary growth of the species. This study suggests that GS with GWAS-based SNP selection can be used in breeding for non-cultivated tree species to improve initial growth and reduce genotyping costs for next-generation seedlings.

Distance and density dependence in two native Bornean dipterocarp species

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis proposes that density and distance-dependent mortality generated by specialist natural enemies prevent competitive dominance. Much literature on Janzen-Connell mechanisms comes from the neotropics, and evidence of the role of distance and density-dependence is still relatively sparse. We tested the predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis in a South-East Asian system dominated by mast fruiting species. We hypothesized that seedling survival would decrease with distance and density, seedling growth would increase, and herbivory would decrease, according to the predictions of the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. Experiments were conducted to determine the strength of the Janzen-Connell mechanism by manipulating the density and identity of tree species as a function of the distance from parent trees. Survival of conspecific seedlings was reduced near adult trees of one species, but not another. High densities of seedlings decreased the growth of conspecific seedlings of both species. In both species, herbivory rates decreased with distance in low-density areas. This study indicates that dipterocarp species experienced weak Janzen-Connell effects of distance and density dependence at the growth stage studied. Future studies in this system might focus on earlier life-history stages such as seeds and small seedlings, as well as studying mortality during mast-seeding events.

Demographic consequences of heterogeneity in conspecific density dependence among mast-fruiting tropical trees

The role of conspecific density dependence (CDD) in the maintenance of species richness is a central focus of tropical forest ecology. However, tests of CDD often ignore the integrated effects of CDD over multiple life stages and their long-term impacts on population demography. We combined a 10-year time series of seed production, seedling recruitment and sapling and tree demography of three dominant Southeast Asian tree species that adopt a mast-fruiting phenology. We used these data to construct individual-based models that examine the effects of CDD on population growth rates (λ) across life-history stages. Recruitment was driven by positive CDD for all species, supporting the predator satiation hypothesis, while negative CDD affected seedling and sapling growth of two species, significantly reducing λ. This negative CDD on juvenile growth overshadowed the positive CDD of recruitment, suggesting the cumulative effects of CDD during seedling and sapling development has greater importance than the positive CDD during infrequent masting events. Overall, CDD varied among positive, neutral and negative effects across life-history stages for all species, suggesting that assessments of CDD on transitions between just two stages (e.g. seeds seedlings or juveniles mature trees) probably misrepresent the importance of CDD on population growth and stability.

A trait-based plant economic framework can help increase the value of reforestation for conservation

While reforestation is gaining momentum to moderate climate change via carbon sequestration, there is also an opportunity to use tree planting to confront declining global biodiversity. Where tree species vary in support of diversity, selecting appropriate species for planting could increase conservation effectiveness. We used a common garden experiment in Borneo using 24 native tree species to examine how variation among tree species in their support of beetle diversity is predicted by plant traits associated with "acquisitive" and "conservative" resource acquisition strategies. We evaluate three hypotheses: (1) beetle communities show fidelity to host identity as indicated by variation in abundance and diversity among tree species, (2) the leaf economic spectrum partially explains this variation as shown by beetle preferences for plant species that are predicted by plant traits, and (3) a small number of selected tree species can capture higher beetle species richness than a random tree species community. We found high variation among tree species in supporting three highly intercorrelated metrics of beetle communities: abundance, richness, and Shannon diversity. Variation in support of beetle communities was predicted by plant traits and varied by plant functional groups; within the dipterocarp family, high beetle diversity was predicted by conservative traits such as high wood density and slow growth, and in non-dipterocarps by the acquisitive traits of high foliar K and rapid growth. Using species accumulation curves and extrapolation to twice the original sample size, we show that 48 tree species were not enough to reach asymptote levels of beetle richness. Nevertheless, species accumulation curves of the six tree species with the highest richness had steeper slopes and supported 33% higher richness than a random community of tree species. Reforestation projects concerned about conservation can benefit by identifying tree species with a disproportional capacity to support biodiversity based on plant traits.

Molecular genetic tools to infer the origin of forest plants and wood

Most forest tree species exhibit high levels of genetic diversity that can be used to trace the origin of living plants or their products such as timber and processed wood. Recent progress to isolate DNA not only from living tissue but also from wood and wood products offers new opportunities to test the declared origin of material such as seedlings for plantation establishment or timber. However, since most forest tree populations are weakly differentiated, the identification of genetic markers to differentiate among spatially isolated populations is often difficult and time consuming. Two important fields of "forensic" applications are described: Molecular tools are applied to test the declared origin of forest reproductive material used for plantation establishment and of internationally traded timber and wood products. These applications are illustrated taking examples from Germany, where mechanisms have been developed to improve the control of the trade with forest seeds and seedlings, and from the trade with wood of the important Southeast Asian tree family Dipterocarpaceae. Prospects and limitations of the use of molecular genetic methods to conclude on the origin of forest plants, wood, and wood products are discussed.