Development of model to predict end-stage renal disease after coronary artery bypass grafting: The ACHE score

Because end-stage renal disease (ESRD) increases the risks of morbidity and mortality, early detection and prevention of ESRD is a critical issue in clinical practice. However, no ESRD-prediction models have been developed or validated in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).This is a retrospective multicenter cohort study, recruited between January 2004 and December 2015. A cohort of 3089 patients undergoing CABG in two tertiary referral centers was analyzed to derive a risk-prediction model. The model was developed using Cox proportional hazard analyses, and its performance was assessed using C-statistics. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 279 patients.During the median follow-up of 6 years (maximum 13 years), ESRD occurred in 60 patients (2.0%). Through stepwise selection multivariate analyses, the following three variables were finally included in the ESRD-prediction model: postoperative Acute kidney injury, underlying Chronic kidney disease, and the number of antiHypertensive drugs (ACHE score). This model showed good performance in predicting ESRD with the following C-statistics: 0.89 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.84-0.94) in the development cohort and 0.82 (95% CI 0.60-1.00) in the external validation cohort.The present ESRD-prediction model may be applicable to patients undergoing CABG, with the advantage of simplicity and preciseness.

Effect of periodic transfusion on erythropoietin concentration in end stage renal disease

BACKGROUND

It has been reported that a feedback circuit exists between erythropoietin (EPO) concentration and the degree of anemia even in end stage renal disease (ESRD), and growing experience with subcutaneous EPO administration confirms that only slight increases in EPO levels are required to correct renal anemia. Keeping in mind these findings, if a small portion of reserved EPO production could be reactivated in ESRD, it might be biologically significant and vice-versa. From this viewpoint, it is conceivable that periodic long term transfusion might suppress EPO production in ESRD.

METHODS

In order to see whether periodic transfusion influences the EPO concentration in ESRD, a cross-sectional retrospective study was undertaken by reviewing medical records of 28 non-transfusion patients and 22 transfusion patients with ESRD undergoing hemodialysis.

RESULTS

The EPO concentration of the ESRD group (29.1 +/- 8.0 mU/ml) but only about one twentieth of the control group (578.8 +/- 69.1 mU/ml). In ESRD group, It was 27.9 +/- 8.0 mU/ml in transfusion group and 30.6 +/- 7.9 mU/ml in non-transfusion group. EPO concentration at varying hematocrit (Hct) levels did not differ between the non-transfusion group and transfusion group. There was an inverse relationship seen in the non-transfusion group (p < 0.05) but no relationship was seen between the EPO concentrations and varying Hct levels in the transfusion group. The EPO concentration at equal levels of Hct did not differ between the non-transfusion group and transfusion group. The relationship between EPO concentration and the changes in Hct during the observation period did not differ between the non-transfusion group and transfusion group. Both the total amount of transfusion and the frequency of transfusions did not influence EPO concentration.

CONCLUSION

periodic long term transfusion does not seem to decrease the sensitivity of the EPO producing cell to the degree of anemia in ESRD.