Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breeding birds

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and United States (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey between the 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and the USA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Extinction dynamics: The interplay of species traits and the spatial scales of metapopulation declines

Global changes can lead to species declines and extinctions through their impacts on species habitats at two distinct spatial scales: habitat destruction, in which individual habitat patches are destroyed by land-use change or natural disasters, and habitat degradation, in which larger scale changes, such as nitrogen deposition or climate change, lower mean population abundances across landscapes. We developed a theory showing that, even when these two forms of global change have an identical impact on a species' total amount of habitat, they have qualitatively different consequences for species dynamics and extinction. Using metapopulation theory and simulations, we found distinct impacts of these global changes characterized through several responses: the rate at which populations are lost from the remaining patches, extinction thresholds, and the duration of extinction debts. Habitat degradation causes a faster decline in species populations when habitat reduction is low, making it particularly detrimental for rare species. Habitat destruction has smaller impacts for low habitat reduction, but shows clear thresholds beyond which it surpasses degradation's negative impact; the location and steepness of the threshold depends on species dispersal, with poor dispersers having steeper thresholds. These results highlight the challenge of using population monitoring to assess the consequences of global changes and predict consequences of further change: extinction trajectories cannot be predicted due to thresholds (habitat destruction) and lagged dynamics that lead to extinction debts (habitat degradation). Our research clarifies why the impacts of one type of global change may poorly predict the impacts of the other and suggests general rules for predicting the long-term impacts of global changes based on species traits.