Prediction of large-for-gestational-age neonates: screening by maternal factors and biomarkers in the three trimesters of pregnancy.
ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY : THE OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF ULTRASOUND IN OBSTETRICS AND GYNECOLOGY 2016;
47:332-339. [PMID:
26446185 DOI:
10.1002/uog.15780]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2015] [Revised: 09/28/2015] [Accepted: 10/02/2015] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE
To develop a model based on maternal characteristics and medical history (maternal factors) for the prediction of delivery of large-for-gestational-age (LGA) neonates, and to examine the potential value of first-, second- and third-trimester fetal biometry and biomarkers in improving such a model.
METHODS
This was a screening study in 76 300, 54 999, 25 727 and 6181 singleton pregnancies at 11-13, 19-24, 30-34 and 35-37 weeks' gestation, respectively. The a-priori risk for LGA with birth weight > 95(th) percentile (LGA > 95(th) ) was calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine which of the maternal factors had a significant contribution. Regression analysis was then used to determine whether screening by a combination of maternal factors, fetal biometry and various biophysical and biochemical markers had significant contribution in predicting delivery of LGA neonates.
RESULTS
The likelihood of LGA > 95(th) increased with increasing maternal weight and height and was lower in women of Afro-Caribbean and South Asian racial origins, in cigarette smokers and in nulliparous women. The risk was higher in women with pre-existing diabetes mellitus Type I and lower in those with chronic hypertension. In parous women, the risk increased with birth-weight Z-score in previous pregnancy and prior history of gestational diabetes and decreased with interpregnancy interval. Screening by maternal factors at 11-13 weeks predicted 32%, 44% and 60% of LGA > 95(th) at false-positive rates (FPRs) of 5%, 10% and 20%, respectively. With the addition of fetal biometry, the detection rates improved to 37%, 51% and 68% at 19-24 weeks, 50%, 65% and 81% at 30-34 weeks and 60%, 73% and 85% at 35-37 weeks at FPRs of 5%, 10% and 20%, respectively. The addition of biomarkers did not improve the detection rates achieved when screening by a combination of maternal factors and fetal biometry.
CONCLUSION
Combined screening by maternal factors and fetal biometry can predict a high proportion of pregnancies that will deliver LGA neonates. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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