Predicting onset risk of COVID-19 symptom to support healthy travel route planning in the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2

Due to the increased outdoor transmission risk of new SARS-COV-2 variants, the health of urban residents in daily travel is being threatened. In the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2, how to avoid being infected by SARS-CoV-2 in daily travel has become a key issue. Hence, a spatiotemporal solution has been proposed to assist healthy travel route planning. Firstly, an enhanced urban-community-scale geographic model was proposed to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk by incorporating the real-time effective reproduction numbers, and daily population variation of fully vaccinated. On-road onset risk predictions in the next following days were then extracted for searching healthy routes with the least onset risk values. The healthy route planning was further implemented in a mobile application. Hong Kong, one of the representative highly populated cities, has been chosen as an example to apply the spatiotemporal solution. The application results in the four epidemic waves of Hong Kong show that based on the high accurate prediction of COVID-19 symptom onset risk, the healthy route planning could reduce people's exposure to the COVID-19 symptoms onset risk. To sum, the proposed solution can be applied to support the healthy travel of residents in more cities in the new normalcy.

Risk and prognosis of second primary cancers among ovarian cancer patients, based on SEER database

The purposes of the present study were to elucidate the risk and prognostic effect of second primary cancers (SPCs) development, as well as the factors influencing the prognosis of OC patients with SPCs. A statistically significant increase in SPCs risk was observed among OC patients during 2004-2015. The independent factors were used to construct the SPCs-prediction nomogram and the OS-prediction nomogram. Both nomogram were subjected to internal validation and performed well. OC patients with SPCs have a better prognosis than patients without SPCs. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to reduce confounding.

C-Reactive Protein as a Peripheral Biomarker in Schizophrenia. An Updated Systematic Review

Objectives: The objective of this systematic review was to synthetize the published data on the relationships between elevated blood C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and schizophrenia (SZ) onset risk, illness characteristics and treatments, cognition and physical health. Method: The systematic bibliographic searches have been carried out according to the Cochrane methodology. Medline, web of science, Google Scholar with each database being searched from inception to November 2017. Results: 53 studies were included in the present review. While meta-analyses including case-control studies suggest a clear association between CRP and SZ, one other study has suggested that CRP-associated genes were associated with a lower risk of SZ onset. Increased CRP has been significantly associated with positive symptoms in acute phase psychosis, while studies including community-dwelling stabilized subjects did not find such an association. Abnormal CRP has been associated with a wide range of cognitive impairment in SZ stabilized individuals. Body Mass index has been extensively associated with increased CRP in SZ subjects; and increased CRP has been identified as a risk factor for metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in SZ subjects. Increased CRP has also been associated with high nicotine dependence in SZ smokers and one study has suggested that increased CRP was associated with sedentary behavior. Conclusion: In the light of the above-mentioned studies, increased hs-CRP may be reasonably suggested as a marker for SZ onset risk, as well as a risk factor for increased positive symptoms, cognitive impairment, hypovitaminosis D, microbiota disturbances, cardiovascular and metabolic syndrome risk in SZ subjects, and increased nicotine dependence in SZ smokers. In case of increased CRP levels, anti-inflammatory strategies (add-on anti-inflammatory drugs including aspirin and omega 3 fatty acids, vitamin D supplementation, physical activity, probiotics) should be also further evaluated. Limits: Most of the studies were cross-sectional and cohort studies are needed to determine the temporal relationship between increased CRP and the psychiatric outcomes.

A model to predict the onset of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease within 2 years in elderly adults

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common cause of chronic hepatitis, which leads to cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. However, it is difficult to identify subjects at high risk for NAFLD onset. This study aims to construct a model to predict the onset of NAFLD within 2 years in elderly adults.

METHODS

This study included and followed 3378 initial NAFLD-free subjects aged 60 years or over for 2 years, which were randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. NAFLD was diagnosed on ultrasound. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded at baseline. A model was constructed in the training set to predict the onset of NAFLD and validated in the validation set.

RESULTS

Body mass index, hemoglobin, fasting blood glucose, and triglycerides were identified as predictors for the onset of NAFLD. A risk score (R) was calculated by them. It classified the subjects into low-risk group (R ≤ -2.88), moderate-risk group (-2.88 < R ≤ -1.26), and high-risk group (R > -1.26). In the training set, 4.68% of the participants in the low-risk group, 11.59% of the participants in the moderate-risk group, and 31.02% of the participants in the high-risk group developed NAFLD. In the validation set, 5.84% of the participants in the low-risk group, 10.57% of the participants in the moderate-risk group, and 29.44% of the participants in the high-risk group developed NAFLD.

CONCLUSIONS

This study developed a model to predict the onset of NAFLD in elderly adults, which might provide indications for intervention to these subjects.

Correlation between X-ray cross-complementing group 1 polymorphisms and the onset risk of glioma: A meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE:

To evaluate the association of X-ray cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1) Arg399Gln, Arg194Trp and Arg280His polymorphisms with the risk of glioma.

DATA SOURCES:

A systematic literature search of papers published from January 2000 to August 2012 in PubMed, Embase, China National Knowledge Infrastructure database, and Wanfang database was performed. The key words used were “glioma”, “polymorphism”, and “XRCC1 or X-ray repair cross-complementing group 1”. References cited in the retrieved articles were screened manually to identify additional eligible studies.

STUDY SELECTION:

Studies were identified according to the following inclusion criteria: case-control design was based on unrelated individuals; and genotype frequency was available to estimate an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Meta-analysis was performed for the selected studies after strict screening. Dominant and recessive genetic models were used and the relationship between homozygous mutant genotype frequencies and mutant gene frequency and glioma incidence was investigated. We chose the fixed or random effect model according to the heterogeneity to calculate OR and 95%CI, and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Publication bias was examined using the inverted funnel plot and the Egger's test using Stata 12.0 software.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:

Association of XRCC1 Arg399Gln, Arg194Trp, and Arg280His polymorphisms with the risk of glioma, and subgroup analyses were performed according to different ethnicities of the subjects.

RESULTS:

Twelve articles were included in the meta-analysis. Eleven of the articles were concerned with the Arg399Gln polymorphism and glioma onset risk. Significantly increased glioma risks were found only in the dominant model (Gln/Gln + Gln/Arg versus Arg/Arg: OR = 1.26, 95%CI = 1.03–1.54, P = 0.02). In the subgroup analysis by ethnicity, significantly increased risk was found in Asian subjects in the recessive (OR = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.04–2.45, P = 0.03) and dominant models (OR = 1.40, 95%CI = 1.10–1.78, P = 0.007), and homozygote contrast (OR = 1.69, 95%CI = 1.17–2.45, P = 0.005), but not in Caucasian subjects. For association of the Arg194Trp (eight studies) and Arg280His (four studies) polymorphisms with glioma risk, the meta-analysis did not reveal a significant effect in the allele contrast, the recessive genetic model, the dominant genetic model, or homozygote contrast.

CONCLUSION:

The XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism may be a biomarker of glioma susceptibility, especially in Asian populations. The Arg194Trp and Arg280His polymorphisms were not associated with overall glioma risk.