Covariate adjusted meta-analytic predictive (CA-MAP) prior for historical borrowing using patient-level data

Utilization of historical data is increasingly common for gaining efficiency in the drug development and decision-making processes. The underlying issue of between-trial heterogeneity in clinical trials is a barrier in making these methods standard practice in the pharmaceutical industry. Common methods for historical borrowing discount the borrowed information based on the similarity between outcomes in the historical and current data. However, individual clinical trials and their outcomes are intrinsically heterogenous due to differences in study design, patient characteristics, and changes in standard of care. Additionally, differences in covariate distributions can produce inconsistencies in clinical outcome data between historical and current data when there may be a consistent covariate effect. In such scenario, borrowing historical data is still advantageous even though the population level outcome summaries are different. In this paper, we propose a covariate adjusted meta-analytic-predictive (CA-MAP) prior for historical control borrowing. A MAP prior is assigned to each covariate effect, allowing the amount of borrowing to be determined by the consistency of the covariate effects across the current and historical data. This approach integrates between-trial heterogeneity with covariate level heterogeneity to tune the amount of information borrowed. Our method is unique as it directly models the covariate effects instead of using the covariates to select a similar population to borrow from. In summary, our proposed patient-level extension of the MAP prior allows for the amount of historical control borrowing to depend on the similarity of covariate effects rather than similarity in clinical outcomes.

Evaluating the Alzheimer's disease data landscape

INTRODUCTION

Numerous studies have collected Alzheimer's disease (AD) cohort data sets. To achieve reproducible, robust results in data-driven approaches, an evaluation of the present data landscape is vital.

METHODS

Previous efforts relied exclusively on metadata and literature. Here, we evaluate the data landscape by directly investigating nine patient-level data sets generated in major clinical cohort studies.

RESULTS

The investigated cohorts differ in key characteristics, such as demographics and distributions of AD biomarkers. Analyzing the ethnoracial diversity revealed a strong bias toward White/Caucasian individuals. We described and compared the measured data modalities. Finally, the available longitudinal data for important AD biomarkers was evaluated. All results are explorable through our web application ADataViewer (https://adata.scai.fraunhofer.de).

DISCUSSION

Our evaluation exposed critical limitations in the AD data landscape that impede comparative approaches across multiple data sets. Comparison of our results to those gained by metadata-based approaches highlights that thorough investigation of real patient-level data is imperative to assess a data landscape.