Radiation Adverse Outcome pathways (AOPs): examining priority questions from an international horizon-style exercise

PURPOSE

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) Development Programme is being explored in the radiation field, as an overarching framework to identify and prioritize research needs that best support strengthening of radiation risk assessment and risk management strategies. To advance the use of AOPs, an international horizon-style exercise (HSE) was initiated through the Radiation/Chemical AOP Joint Topical Group (JTG) formed by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) High-Level Group on Low Dose Research (HLG-LDR) under the auspices of the Committee on Radiological Protection and Public Health (CRPPH). The intent of the HSE was to identify key research questions for consideration in AOP development that would help to reduce uncertainties in estimating the health risks following exposures to low dose and low dose-rate ionizing radiation. The HSE was conducted in several phases involving the solicitation of relevant questions, a collaborative review of open-ended candidate questions and an elimination exercise that led to the selection of 25 highest priority questions for the stated purpose. These questions were further ranked by over 100 respondents through an international survey. This final set of questions was judged to provide insights into how the OECD's AOP approach can be put into practice to meet the needs of hazard and risk assessors, regulators, and researchers. This paper examines the 25 priority questions in the context of hazard/risk assessment framework for ionizing radiation.

CONCLUSION

By addressing the 25 priority questions, it is anticipated that constructed AOPs will have a high level of specificity, making them valuable tools for simplifying and prioritizing complex biological processes for use in developing revised radiation hazard and risk assessment strategies.

Considerations for application of benchmark dose modeling in radiation research: workshop highlights

BACKGROUND

Exposure to different forms of ionizing radiation occurs in diverse occupational, medical, and environmental settings. Improving the accuracy of the estimated health risks associated with exposure is therefore, essential for protecting the public, particularly as it relates to chronic low dose exposures. A key aspect to understanding health risks is precise and accurate modeling of the dose-response relationship. Toward this vision, benchmark dose (BMD) modeling may be a suitable approach for consideration in the radiation field. BMD modeling is already extensively used for chemical hazard assessments and is considered statistically preferable to identifying low and no observed adverse effects levels. BMD modeling involves fitting mathematical models to dose-response data for a relevant biological endpoint and identifying a point of departure (the BMD, or its lower bound). Recent examples in chemical toxicology show that when applied to molecular endpoints (e.g. genotoxic and transcriptional endpoints), BMDs correlate to points of departure for more apical endpoints such as phenotypic changes (e.g. adverse effects) of interest to regulatory decisions. This use of BMD modeling may be valuable to explore in the radiation field, specifically in combination with adverse outcome pathways, and may facilitate better interpretation of relevant in vivo and in vitro dose-response data. To advance this application, a workshop was organized on June 3rd, 2022, in Ottawa, Ontario that brought together BMD experts in chemical toxicology and the radiation scientific community of researchers, regulators, and policy-makers. The workshop's objective was to introduce radiation scientists to BMD modeling and its practical application using case examples from the chemical toxicity field and demonstrate the BMDExpress software using a radiation dataset. Discussions focused on the BMD approach, the importance of experimental design, regulatory applications, its use in supporting the development of adverse outcome pathways, and specific radiation-relevant examples.

CONCLUSIONS

Although further deliberations are needed to advance the use of BMD modeling in the radiation field, these initial discussions and partnerships highlight some key steps to guide future undertakings related to new experimental work.

A software tool for organ-specific second cancer risk assessment from exposure to therapeutic doses

The aim of this study was the development of a software tool (SCRcalc) for the automatic estimation of the patient- and organ-specific cancer risk due to radiotherapy. SCRcalc was developed using the Python 3.8.7 programming language. It incorporates equations and parameters of mechanistic models for the calculation of the organ equivalent dose (OED), the excess absolute risk (EA R) and the lifetime attributable risk (LA R) of carcinogenesis for various organs due to radiotherapy. Data from differential dose-volume histograms, as defined by a treatment planning system, could be automatically inserted into the program. Eighteen different cancer risk estimates for various organs were performed of patients subjected to radiation therapy with conventional and modulated techniques. These software estimates were compared with manual calculations. SCRcalc was developed as a standalone executable program without any dependencies. It enables direct estimations of the OED and LAR for various organs at risk. An important aspect of the software is that it does not require pre-processing of the DVH data. No differences were found between the SCRcalc results and those derived from manual calculations. The newly developed software offers the possibility to medical physicists and radiation oncologists to directly estimate the probability of radiotherapy-induced secondary malignancies for various organs at risk.

Bringing together scientific disciplines for collaborative undertakings: a vision for advancing the adverse outcome pathway framework

BACKGROUND

Decades of research to understand the impacts of various types of environmental occupational and medical stressors on human health have produced a vast amount of data across many scientific disciplines. Organizing these data in a meaningful way to support risk assessment has been a significant challenge. To address this and other challenges in modernizing chemical health risk assessment, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) formalized the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework, an approach to consolidate knowledge into measurable key events (KEs) at various levels of biological organisation causally linked to disease based on the weight of scientific evidence (http://oe.cd/aops). Currently, AOPs have been considered predominantly in chemical safety but are relevant to radiation. In this context, the Nuclear Energy Agency's (NEA's) High-Level Group on Low Dose Research (HLG-LDR) is working to improve research co-ordination, including radiological research with chemical research, identify synergies between the fields and to avoid duplication of efforts and resource investments. To this end, a virtual workshop was held on 7 and 8 October 2020 with experts from the OECD AOP Programme together with the radiation and chemical research/regulation communities. The workshop was a coordinated effort of Health Canada, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). The AOP approach was discussed including key issues to fully embrace its value and catalyze implementation in areas of radiation risk assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

A joint chemical and radiological expert group was proposed as a means to encourage cooperation between risk assessors and an initial vision was discussed on a path forward. A global survey was suggested as a way to identify priority health outcomes of regulatory interest for AOP development. Multidisciplinary teams are needed to address the challenge of producing the appropriate data for risk assessments. Data management and machine learning tools were highlighted as a way to progress from weight of evidence to computational causal inference.

Collaborative efforts are needed among the scientific community to advance the adverse outcome pathway concept in areas of radiation risk assessment

Disease prevention and prediction have led to the generation of phenotypically based methods for deriving the limits of safety across toxicological disciplines. In the ionizing radiation field, human data has formed the basis of the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model for risk estimates. However, uncertainties around its accuracy at low doses and low dose-rates have led to passionate debates on its effectiveness to derive radiation risk estimates under these conditions. Concerns arise from the linear extrapolation of data from high doses to low doses, below 0.1 Gy where there is considerable variability in the scientific literature. Efforts to address these controversies have led to a mountain of mechanistic data to improve the understanding of molecular and cellular effects related to phenotypic changes. These data provide fragments of information that have yet to be combined and used effectively to improve modeling, reduce uncertainties, and update radiation protection approaches. This paper suggests a better consolidation of mechanistic research may serve to guide priority research and facilitate translation to risk assessment. An effective approach that may be implemented is the organization of data using the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework, a programme that has been launched by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in the chemical toxicology field. The AOP concept has proved beneficial to human health and ecological toxicological fields, demonstrating possibilities for better linkages of mechanistic data to phenotypic effects. A similar approach may be beneficial to the field of radiation research. However, for this to work effectively, collaborative efforts are needed among the scientific communities in the area of AOP development and documentation. Studies will need to be evaluated, re-organized and integrated into AOPs. Here, details of the AOP approach and areas it could support in the radiation field are discussed. In addition, challenges are highlighted and steps to integration are outlined. Organizing studies in this manner will facilitate a better understanding of our current knowledge in the radiation field and help identify areas where more focused work can be undertaken. This will, in turn, allow for improved linkage of mechanistic data to human relevance and better support radiation risk assessments.

Adverse outcome pathways, key events, and radiation risk assessment

The overall aim of this contribution to the 'Second Bill Morgan Memorial Special Issue' is to provide a high-level review of a recent report developed by a Committee for the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) titled 'Approaches for Integrating Information from Radiation Biology and Epidemiology to Enhance Low-Dose Health Risk Assessment'. It derives from previous NCRP Reports and Commentaries that provide the case for integrating data from radiation biology studies (available and proposed) with epidemiological studies (also available and proposed) to develop Biologically-Based Dose-Response (BBDR) models. In this review, it is proposed for such models to leverage the adverse outcome pathways (AOP) and key events (KE) approach for better characterizing radiation-induced cancers and circulatory disease (as the example for a noncancer outcome). The review discusses the current state of knowledge of mechanisms of carcinogenesis, with an emphasis on radiation-induced cancers, and a similar discussion for circulatory disease. The types of the various informative BBDR models are presented along with a proposed generalized BBDR model for cancer and a more speculative one for circulatory disease. The way forward is presented in a comprehensive discussion of the research needs to address the goal of enhancing health risk assessment of exposures to low doses of radiation. The use of an AOP/KE approach for developing a mechanistic framework for BBDR models of radiation-induced cancer and circulatory disease is considered to be a viable one based upon current knowledge of the mechanisms of formation of these adverse health outcomes and the available technical capabilities and computational advances. The way forward for enhancing low-dose radiation risk estimates will require there to be a tight integration of epidemiology data and radiation biology information to meet the goals of relevance and sensitivity of the adverse health outcomes required for overall health risk assessment at low doses and dose rates.

The integration of the adverse outcome pathway framework to radiation risk assessment

BACKGROUND

A large body of radiobiological data has been generated over the past century using in vitro, animal and epidemiological models. This information represents global efforts to understand the mechanistic basis of radiation-induced health effects. However, it has been difficult to effectively integrate this data to derive meaningful information for refining the guidance on chronic, low dose radiation exposure for workers and the public.

METHODS

To increase our understanding of radiation risks and the biological processes that contribute to those risks, a paradigm shift is needed that will enable integration of information across levels of biological organization from a 'stressor' centric to an 'adverse outcome' approach to risk assessment. In chemical and ecological toxicity, a framework has been developed that captures available biologically-based knowledge in the literature and links it to outcomes of relevance to chemical toxicity, resulting in an adverse outcome pathway (AOP).

RESULTS

In this paper, we discuss the AOP concept, how it can be applied to the radiation field, and our vision for the next steps. For the approach to be successful, the radiation research community will need to work collaboratively to vet the vast amount of literature and harness the data in a systematic manner for incorporation into a framework based on the AOP approach.

CONCLUSION

We anticipate that AOPs could be adopted as a method to synthesize current available information to facilitate the identification of knowledge gaps, better co-ordinate research and qualitatively and quantitatively link key events to an adverse outcome. This can further assist in identifying biomarkers relevant to radiation exposures, refining risk from co-exposures and understanding critical events at the molecular, cellular, tissue, organ and whole animal level related to low dose/dose-rate exposures.

Estimation of Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Effectiveness of Regulation after the Fukushima Accident and in Virtual Nuclear Power Plant Accident Scenarios

Evaluation of radiation exposure from diet is necessary under the assumption of a virtual accident as a part of emergency preparedness. Here, we developed a model with complete consideration of the regional food trade using deposition data simulated by a transport model, and estimated the dietary intake of radionuclides and the effectiveness of regulation (e.g., restrictions on the distribution of foods) after the Fukushima accident and in virtual accident scenarios. We also evaluated the dilution factors (i.e., ratios of contaminated foods to consumed foods) and cost-effectiveness of regulation as basic information for setting regulatory values. The doses estimated under actual emission conditions were generally consistent with those observed in food-duplicate and market-basket surveys within a factor of three. Regulation of restricted food distribution resulted in reductions in the doses of 54⁻65% in the nearest large city to the nuclear power plant. The dilution factors under actual emission conditions were 4.4% for radioiodine and 2.7% for radiocesium, which are ~20 times lower than those used in the Japanese provisional regulation values after the Fukushima accident. Strict regulation worsened the cost-effectiveness for both radionuclides. This study highlights the significance and utility of the developed model for a risk analysis of emergency preparedness and regulation.

A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose-Response Estimation

In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose-response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose-response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece-wise-linear dose-response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose-response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low-dose radiation exposures.