Body size mediates trophic interaction strength of novel fish assemblages under climate change

Ecological similarity plays an important role in biotic interactions. Increased body size similarity of competing species, for example, increases the strength of their biotic interactions. Body sizes of many exothermic species are forecast to be altered under global warming, mediating shifts in existing trophic interactions among species, in particular for species with different thermal niches. Temperate rocky reefs along the southeast coast of Australia are located in a climate warming hotspot and now house a mixture of temperate native fish species and poleward range-extending tropical fishes (vagrants), creating novel species assemblages. Here, we studied the relationship between body size similarity and trophic overlap between individual temperate native and tropical vagrant fishes. Dietary niche overlap between vagrant and native fish species increased as their body sizes converged, based on both stomach content composition (short-term diet), stable isotope analyses (integrated long-term diet) and similarity in consumed prey sizes. We conclude that the warming-induced faster growth rates of tropical range-extending fish species at their cool water ranges will continue to converge their body size towards and strengthen their degree of trophic interactions and dietary overlap with co-occurring native temperate species under increasing ocean warming. The strengthening of these novel competitive interactions is likely to drive changes to temperate food web structures and reshuffle existing species community structures.

Temperature-dependent dispersal and ectotherm species' distributions in a warming world

Dispersal is a crucial component of species' responses to climate warming. Warming-induced changes in species' distributions are the outcome of how temperature affects dispersal at the individual level. Yet, there is little or no theory that considers the temperature dependence of dispersal when investigating the impacts of warming on species' distributions. Here I take a first step towards filling this key gap in our knowledge. I focus on ectotherms, species whose body temperature depends on the environmental temperature, not least because they constitute the majority of biodiversity on the planet. I develop a mathematical model of spatial population dynamics that explicitly incorporates mechanistic descriptions of ectotherm life history trait responses to temperature. A novel feature of this framework is the explicit temperature dependence of all phases of dispersal: emigration, transfer and settlement. I report three key findings. First, dispersal, regardless of whether it is random or temperature-dependent, allows both tropical and temperate ectotherms to track warming-induced changes in their thermal environments and to expand their distributions beyond the lower and upper thermal limits of their respective climate envelopes. In the absence of dispersal mortality, warming does not alter these new distributional limits. Second, an analysis based solely on trait response data predicts that tropical ectotherms should be able to expand their distributions polewards to a greater degree than temperate ectotherms. Analysis of the dynamical model confirms this prediction. Tropical ectotherms have an advantage when moving to cooler climates because they experience lower within-patch and dispersal mortality, and their higher thermal optima and maximal birth rates allow them to take advantage of the warmer parts of the year. Previous theory has shown that tropical ectotherms are more successful in invading and adapting the temperate climates than vice versa. This study provides the key missing piece, by showing how temperature-dependent dispersal could facilitate both invasion and adaptation. Third, dispersal mortality does not affect the poleward expansion of ectotherm distributions. But, it prevents both tropical and temperate ectotherms from maintaining sink populations in localities that are too warm to be viable in the absence of dispersal. Dispersal mortality also affects species' abundance patterns, causing a larger decline in abundance throughout the range when species disperse randomly rather than in response to thermal habitat suitability. In this way, dispersal mortality can facilitate the evolution of dispersal modes that maximize fitness in warmer thermal environments.

The ecological and evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation

Tropicalisation is a marine phenomenon arising from contemporary climate change, and is characterised by the range expansion of tropical/subtropical species and the retraction of temperate species. Tropicalisation occurs globally and can be detected in both tropical/temperate transition zones and temperate regions. The ecological consequences of tropicalisation range from single-species impacts (e.g., altered behaviour) to whole ecosystem changes (e.g., phase shifts in intertidal and subtidal habitats). Our understanding of the evolutionary consequences of tropicalisation is limited, but emerging evidence suggests that tropicalisation could induce phenotypic change as well as shifts in the genotypic composition of both expanding and retracting species. Given the rapid rate of contemporary climate change, research on tropicalisation focusing on shifts in ecosystem functioning, biodiversity change, and socioeconomic impacts is urgently needed.

Estimating the Potential of Insects from Warmer Regions to Overwinter in Colder Regions under a Warming Winter Scenario Using Simulation Experiments: A Case Study in Sesamia nonagrioides

Ongoing climate change and anthropogenic pressure are having a profound influence on insects, causing species diversity to decline and populations to shrink. Insect pests invade new areas and cause economic and human health problems. Low temperatures in winter are thought to be one of the main barriers to the successful colonization of higher latitudes. Climate models predict that winter temperatures will increase more than summer temperatures in temperate and polar regions, potentially allowing species from warmer climates to colonize higher latitudes. Understanding how climate change will affect the distribution of insects is critical to many areas of human activity. One possible but seldom used way to predict likely range shifts of insects due to climate change is through simulation experiments. Here, I present and test a method to assess the potential of insect species from warmer regions to survive winters in colder regions under a warming winter scenario. The method is based on laboratory simulations of warming winters. The applicability of the method is demonstrated using the example of a Mediterranean pest, Sesamia nonagrioides, whose ability to survive Central European winters under a warming winter scenario is assessed. The method presented here is relatively simple, with potentially high accuracy of estimates.

Comparative phylogeography reveals dissimilar genetic differentiation patterns in two sympatric amphibian species

Global climate change is expected to have a profound effect on species distribution. Due to the temperature constraints, some narrow niche species could shift their narrow range to higher altitudes or latitudes. In this study, we explored the correlation between species traits, genetic structure, and geographical range size. More specifically, we analyzed how these variables are affected by differences in fundamental niche breadth or dispersal ability in the members of two sympatrically distributed stream-dwelling amphibian species (frog, Quasipaa yei; salamander, Pachyhynobius shangchengensis), in Dabie Mountains, East China. Both species showed relatively high genetic diversity in most geographical populations and similar genetic diversity patterns (JTX, low; BYM, high) correlation with habitat changes and population demography. Multiple clustering analyses were used to disclose differentiation among the geographical populations of these two amphibian species. Q. yei disclosed the relatively shallow genetic differentiation, while P. shangchengensis showed an opposite pattern. Under different historical climatic conditions, all ecological niche modeling disclosed a larger suitable habitat area for Q. yei than for P. shangchengensis; these results indicated a wider environment tolerance or wider niche width of Q. yei than P. shangchengensis. Our findings suggest that the synergistic effects of environmental niche variation and dispersal ability may help shape genetic structure across geographical topology, particularly for species with extremely narrow distribution.

A pathogen's spatial range is not constrained by geographical features in the flax rust pathosystem

Climate change and shifting environmental conditions can allow pathogens to spread into previously unburdened areas. For plant pathogens, this dynamic has the potential to disrupt natural ecosystem equilibria and human agriculture, making predicting plant pathogen range shifts increasingly important. Although such predictions will hinge on an accurate understanding of the determinants of pathogen range-namely the environmental, geographical, and host range characteristics that modulate local pathogen habitation-few studies to date have probed these in natural plant populations. Here, we characterize range determinants for the model system of Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) and its pathogen, flax rust (Melampsora lini), in the Rocky Mountains. Transect surveys were performed to assess three relationships: (i) the effect of geographical features-elevation, slope aspect, slope grade, and land cover-on flax presence and density, (ii) the effect of geographical features on flax rust presence and prevalence, and (iii) the effects of flax's local population density and metapopulation structure on flax rust presence and prevalence. We found that flax population density, but not host metapopulation structure, influences the distribution of flax rust. Additionally, we showed that, while the distribution of flax was broadly constrained to a relatively narrow range of geographical and resulting environmental features, flax rust was evenly distributed across the full range of settings measured. These results indicate that a warming environment, which is expected to modulate such features, may restrict the optimal range of the plant more than that of its pathogen. Importantly, our results also suggest that even if flax shifts its spatial range to escape increasing climatic pressures, flax rust will not face any significant barriers to track this movement.

Anthropogenic Influence on Moth Populations: A Comparative Study in Southern Sweden

As moths are vital components of ecosystems and serve as important bioindicators, understanding the dynamics of their communities and the factors influencing these dynamics, such as anthropogenic impacts, is crucial to understand the ecological processes. Our study focuses on two provinces in southern Sweden, Västergötland and Småland, where we used province records from 1974 to 2019 in combination with light traps (in 2020) to record the presence and abundance of moth species, subsequently assessing species traits to determine potential associations with their presence in anthropogenically modified landscapes. This study design provides a unique opportunity to assess temporal changes in moth communities and their responses to shifts in environmental conditions, including anthropogenic impacts. Across the Västergötland and Småland provinces in Sweden, we recorded 776 moth taxa belonging to fourteen different taxonomic families of mainly Macroheterocera. We captured 44% and 28% of the total moth species known from these provinces in our traps in Borås (Västergötland) and Kalmar (Småland), respectively. In 2020, the species richness and abundance were higher in Borås than in Kalmar, while the Shannon and Simpson diversity indices revealed a higher species diversity in Kalmar. Between 1974 and 2019, the colonisation rates of the provinces increased faster in Småland. Ninety-three species were found to have colonised these provinces since 1974, showing that species richness increased over the study period. We reveal significant associations between the probability of a species being present in the traps and distinct traits compared to a provincial species pool. Traits over-represented in the traps included species with a high variation in colour patterns, generalist habitat preferences, extended flight periods, lower host plant specificity, and overwintering primarily as eggs. Our findings underscore the ongoing ecological filtering that favours certain species-specific traits. This study sheds light on the roles of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in shaping moth biodiversity, offers key insights into the ecological processes involved, and can guide future conservation efforts.

Demography-environment relationships improve mechanistic understanding of range dynamics under climate change

Species respond to climate change with range and abundance dynamics. To better explain and predict them, we need a mechanistic understanding of how the underlying demographic processes are shaped by climatic conditions. Here, we aim to infer demography-climate relationships from distribution and abundance data. For this, we developed spatially explicit, process-based models for eight Swiss breeding bird populations. These jointly consider dispersal, population dynamics and the climate-dependence of three demographic processes-juvenile survival, adult survival and fecundity. The models were calibrated to 267 nationwide abundance time series in a Bayesian framework. The fitted models showed moderate to excellent goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power. The most influential climatic predictors for population performance were the mean breeding-season temperature and the total winter precipitation. Contemporary climate change benefitted the population trends of typical mountain birds leading to lower population losses or even slight increases, whereas lowland birds were adversely affected. Our results emphasize that generic process-based models embedded in a robust statistical framework can improve our predictions of range dynamics and may allow disentangling of the underlying processes. For future research, we advocate a stronger integration of experimental and empirical studies in order to gain more precise insights into the mechanisms by which climate affects populations. This article is part of the theme issue 'Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions'.

Investigating the potential of social media and citizen science data to track changes in species' distributions

How to best track species as they rapidly alter their distributions in response to climate change has become a key scientific priority. Information on species distributions is derived from biological records, which tend to be primarily sourced from traditional recording schemes, but increasingly also by citizen science initiatives and social media platforms, with biological recording having become more accessible to the general public. To date, however, our understanding of the respective potential of social media and citizen science to complement the information gathered by traditional recording schemes remains limited, particularly when it comes to tracking species on the move with climate change. To address this gap, we investigated how species occurrence observations vary between different sources and to what extent traditional, citizen science, and social media records are complementary, using the Banded Demoiselle (Calopteryx splendens) in Britain as a case study. Banded Demoiselle occurrences were extracted from citizen science initiatives (iRecord and iNaturalist) and social media platforms (Facebook, Flickr, and Twitter), and compared with traditional records primarily sourced from the British Dragonfly Society. Our results showed that species presence maps differ between record types, with 61% of the citizen science, 58% of the traditional, and 49% of the social media observations being unique to that data type. Banded Demoiselle habitat suitability maps differed most according to traditional and social media projections, with traditional and citizen science being the most consistent. We conclude that (i) social media records provide insights into the Banded Demoiselle distribution and habitat preference that are different from, and complementary to, the insights gathered from traditional recording schemes and citizen science initiatives; (ii) predicted habitat suitability maps that ignore information from social media records can substantially underestimate (by over 3500 km² in the case of the Banded Demoiselle) potential suitable habitat availability.

Winners and Losers: Cordulegaster Species under the Pressure of Climate Change

(1) Bioclimatic factors have a proven effect on species distributions in terrestrial, marine, or freshwater ecosystems. Because of anthropogenic effects, the changes in these variables are accelerated; thus, the knowledge of the impact has great importance from a conservation point of view. Two endemic dragonflies, the Balkan Goldenring (Cordulegaster heros) and the Two-Toothed Goldenring (C. bidentata), confined to the hilly and mountainous regions in Europe, are classified as "Near Threatened" according to the IUCN Red List. (2) Modeling the potential occurrence of both species under present and future climatic conditions provides a more accurate picture of the most suitable areas. The models were used to predict the responses of both species to 6 different climate scenarios for the year 2070. (3) We revealed which climatic and abiotic variables affect them the most and which areas are the most suitable for the species. We calculated how future climatic changes would affect the range of suitable areas for the two species. (4) According to our results, the suitable area for Cordulegaster bidentata and C. heros are strongly influenced by bioclimatic variables and showed an upward shift toward high elevations. The models predict a loss of suitable area in the case of C. bidentata and a large gain in the case of C. heros.

Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future

The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms' invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.

Changes in Community Composition and Functional Traits of Bumblebees in an Alpine Ecosystem Relate to Climate Warming

Climate warming has been observed as the main cause of changes in diversity, community composition, and spatial distribution of different plant and invertebrate species. Due to even stronger warming compared to the global mean, bumblebees in alpine ecosystems are particularly exposed to these changes. To investigate the effects of climate warming, we sampled bumblebees along an elevational gradient, compared the records with data from 1935 and 1936, and related our results to climate models. We found that bumblebee community composition differed significantly between sampling periods and that increasing temperatures in spring were the most plausible factor explaining these range shifts. In addition, species diversity estimates were significantly lower compared to historical records. The number of socio-parasitic species was significantly higher in the historical communities, while recent communities showed increases in climate generalists and forest species at lower elevations. Nevertheless, no significant changes in community-weighted means of a species temperature index (STI) or the number of cold-adapted species were detected, likely due to the historical data resolution. We conclude that the composition and functionality of bumblebee communities in the study area have been significantly affected by climate warming, with changes in land use and vegetation cover likely playing an additional important role.

Taxon Cycles in Neotropical Mangroves

The concept of the taxon cycle involves successive range expansions and contractions over time, through which a species can indefinitely maintain its core distribution. Otherwise, it becomes extinct. Taxon cycles have been defined mostly for tropical island faunas; examples from continental areas are scarce, and similar case studies for plants remain unknown. Most taxon cycles have been identified on the basis of phylogeographic studies, and straightforward empirical evidence from fossils is lacking. Here, empirical fossil evidence is provided for the recurrent Eocene to the present expansion/contraction cycles in a mangrove taxon (Pelliciera) after a Neotropical-wide study of the available pollen records. This recurrent behavior is compatible with the concept of the taxon cycle from biogeographical, chronological and ecological perspectives. The biotic and abiotic drivers potentially involved in the initiation and maintenance of the Pelliciera expansion/contraction cycles are analyzed, and the ecological and evolutionary implications are discussed. Whether this could be a trend toward extinction is considered under the predictions of the taxon cycle theory. The recurrent expansion and contraction cycles identified for Pelliciera have strong potential for being the first empirically and unequivocally documented taxon cycles and likely the only taxon cycles documented to date for plants.

Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend's big-eared bats across California in relation to climate change

Effective management decisions depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat use. Maps generated from species distribution models are important in predicting previously unknown occurrences of protected species. However, if populations are seasonally dynamic or locally adapted, failing to consider population level differences could lead to erroneous determinations of occurrence probability and ineffective management. The study goal was to model the distribution of a species of special concern, Townsend's big-eared bats (Corynorhinus townsendii), in California. We incorporate seasonal and spatial differences to estimate the distribution under current and future climate conditions. We built species distribution models using all records from statewide roost surveys and by subsetting data to seasonal colonies, representing different phenological stages, and to Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions to understand how environmental needs vary based on these factors. We projected species' distribution for 2061-2080 in response to low and high emissions scenarios and calculated the expected range shifts. The estimated distribution differed between the combined (full dataset) and phenologically explicit models, while ecoregion-specific models were largely congruent with the combined model. Across the majority of models, precipitation was the most important variable predicting the presence of C. townsendii roosts. Under future climate scenarios, distribution of C. townsendii is expected to contract throughout the state, however suitable areas will expand within some ecoregions. Comparison of phenologically explicit models with combined models indicates the combined models better predict the extent of the known range of C. townsendii in California. However, life-history-explicit models aid in understanding of different environmental needs and distribution of their major phenological stages. Differences between ecoregion-specific and statewide predictions of habitat contractions highlight the need to consider regional variation when forecasting species' responses to climate change. These models can aid in directing seasonally explicit surveys and predicting regions most vulnerable under future climate conditions.

The spatial scale of adaptation in a native annual plant and its implications for responses to climate change

Spatial patterns of adaptation provide important insights into agents of selection and expected responses of populations to climate change. Robust inference into the spatial scale of adaptation can be gained through reciprocal transplant experiments that combine multiple source populations and common gardens. Here, we examine the spatial scale of local adaptation of the North American annual plant common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, using data from four common gardens with 22 source populations sampled from across a ∼1200 km latitudinal gradient within the native range. We found evidence of local adaptation at the northernmost common garden, but maladaptation at the two southern gardens, where more southern source populations outperformed local populations. Overall, the spatial scale of adaptation was large-at the three gardens where distance between source populations and gardens explained variation in fitness, it took an average of 820 km for fitness to decline to 50% of its predicted maximum. Taken together, these results suggest that climate change has already caused maladaptation, especially across the southern portion of the range, and may result in northward range contraction over time.

Temporal dynamics of range expander and congeneric native plant responses during and after extreme drought events

Climate change is causing range shifts of many species to higher latitudes and altitudes and increasing their exposure to extreme weather events. It has been shown that range-shifting plant species may perform differently in new soil than related natives; however, little is known about how extreme weather events affect range-expanding plants compared to related natives. In this study we used outdoor mesocosms to study how range-expanding plant species responded to extreme drought in live soil from a habitat in a new range with and without live soil from a habitat in the original range (Hungary). During summer drought, the shoot biomass of the range-expanding plant community declined. In spite of this, in the mixed community, range expanders produced more shoot biomass than congeneric natives. In mesocosms with a history of range expanders in the previous year, native plants produced less biomass. Plant legacy or soil origin effects did not change the response of natives or range expanders to summer drought. During rewetting, range expanders had less biomass than congeneric natives but higher drought resilience (survival) in soils from the new range where in the previous year native plant species had grown. The biomass patterns of the mixed plant communities were dominated by Centaurea spp.; however, not all plant species within the groups of natives and of range expanders showed the general pattern. Drought reduced the litter decomposition, microbial biomass, and abundances of bacterivorous, fungivorous, and carnivorous nematodes. Their abundances recovered during rewetting. There was less microbial and fungal biomass, and there were fewer fungivorous nematodes in soils from the original range where range expanders had grown in the previous year. We concluded that in mixed plant communities of range expanders and congeneric natives, range expanders performed better, under both ambient and drought conditions, than congeneric natives. However, when considering the responses of individual species, we observed variations among pairs of congenerics, so that under the present mixed-community conditions there was no uniformity in responses to drought of range expanders versus congeneric natives. Range-expanding plant species reduced soil fungal biomass and the numbers of soil fungivorous nematodes, suggesting that the effects of range-expanding plant species can trickle up in the soil food web.

Global warming pushes the distribution range of the two alpine 'glasshouse' Rheum species north- and upwards in the Eastern Himalayas and the Hengduan Mountains

Alpine plants' distribution is being pushed higher towards mountaintops due to global warming, finally diminishing their range and thereby increasing the risk of extinction. Plants with specialized 'glasshouse' structures have adapted well to harsh alpine environments, notably to the extremely low temperatures, which makes them vulnerable to global warming. However, their response to global warming is quite unexplored. Therefore, by compiling occurrences and several environmental strata, we utilized multiple ensemble species distribution modeling (eSDM) to estimate the historical, present-day, and future distribution of two alpine 'glasshouse' species Rheum nobile Hook. f. & Thomson and R. alexandrae Batalin. Rheum nobile was predicted to extend its distribution from the Eastern Himalaya (EH) to the Hengduan Mountains (HM), whereas R. alexandrae was restricted exclusively in the HM. Both species witnessed a northward expansion of suitable habitats followed by a southerly retreat in the HM region. Our findings reveal that both species have a considerable range shift under different climate change scenarios, mainly triggered by precipitation rather than temperature. The model predicted northward and upward migration for both species since the last glacial period which is mainly due to expected future climate change scenarios. Further, the observed niche overlap between the two species presented that they are more divergent depending on their habitat, except for certain regions in the HM. However, relocating appropriate habitats to the north and high elevation may not ensure the species' survival, as it needs to adapt to the extreme climatic circumstances in alpine habitats. Therefore, we advocate for more conservation efforts in these biodiversity hotspots.

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to global environmental change (i.e., climate and land use change) is essential to efficiently inform conservation and management strategies for authorities and managers. Here, we assessed the combined effect of future climate and land use change on the potential range shifts of the giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) in Sichuan Province, China. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to forecast range shifts of the giant pandas by the 2050s and 2070s under four combined climate and land use change scenarios. We also compared the differences in distributional changes of giant pandas among the five mountains in the study area. Our SDMs exhibited good model performance and were not overfitted, with a mean Boyce index of 0.960 ± 0.015 and a mean omission rate of 0.002 ± 0.003, and suggested that precipitation seasonality, annual mean temperature, the proportion of forest cover, and total annual precipitation are the most important factors in shaping the current distribution pattern of the giant pandas. Our projections of future species distribution also suggested a range expansion under an optimistic greenhouse gas emission, while suggesting a range contraction under a pessimistic greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, we found that there is considerable variation in the projected range change patterns among the five mountains in the study area. Especially, the suitable habitat of the giant panda is predicted to increase under all scenarios in the Minshan mountains, while is predicted to decrease under all scenarios in Daxiangling and Liangshan mountains, indicating the vulnerability of the giant pandas at low latitudes. Our findings highlight the importance of an integrated approach that combines climate and land use change to predict the future species distribution and the need for a spatial explicit consideration of the projected range change patterns of target species for guiding conservation and management strategies.

The untapped potential of macrofossils in ancient plant DNA research

The rapid development of ancient DNA analysis in the last decades has induced a paradigm shift in ecology and evolution. Driven by a combination of breakthroughs in DNA isolation techniques, high-throughput sequencing, and bioinformatics, ancient genome-scale data for a rapidly growing variety of taxa are now available, allowing researchers to directly observe demographic and evolutionary processes over time. However, the vast majority of paleogenomic studies still focus on human or animal remains. In this article, we make the case for a vast untapped resource of ancient plant material that is ideally suited for paleogenomic analyses: plant remains, such as needles, leaves, wood, seeds, or fruits, that are deposited in natural archives, such as lake sediments, permafrost, or even ice caves. Such plant remains are commonly found in large numbers and in stratigraphic sequence through time and have so far been used primarily to reconstruct past local species presences and abundances. However, they are also unique repositories of genetic information with the potential to revolutionize the fields of ecology and evolution by directly studying microevolutionary processes over time. Here, we give an overview of the current state-of-the-art, address important challenges, and highlight new research avenues to inspire future research.

Managing human-mediated range shifts: understanding spatial, temporal and genetic variation in marine non-native species

The use of molecular tools to manage natural resources is increasingly common. However, DNA-based methods are seldom used to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of species' range shifts. This is important when managing range shifting species such as non-native species (NNS), which can have negative impacts on biotic communities. Here, we investigated the ascidian NNS Ciona robusta, Clavelina lepadiformis, Microcosmus squamiger and Styela plicata using a combined methodological approach. We first conducted non-molecular biodiversity surveys for these NNS along the South African coastline, and compared the results with historical surveys. We detected no consistent change in range size across species, with some displaying range stability and others showing range shifts. We then sequenced a section of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) from tissue samples and found genetic differences along the coastline but no change over recent times. Finally, we found that environmental DNA metabarcoding data showed broad congruence with both the biodiversity survey and the COI datasets, but failed to capture the complete incidence of all NNS. Overall, we demonstrated how a combined methodological approach can effectively detect spatial and temporal variation in genetic composition and range size, which is key for managing both thriving NNS and threatened species.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)’.

On the macroecological significance of eco-evolutionary dynamics: the range shift-niche breadth hypothesis

Global correlations of range size and niche breadth, and their relationship to latitude, have long intrigued ecologists and biogeographers. Study of these patterns has given rise to a number of hypothesized ecological and evolutionary processes purported to shape biogeographic outcomes, including the climate variability hypothesis, oscillation hypothesis, ecological opportunity, competitive release and taxon cycles. Here, I introduce the alternative range shift-niche breadth hypothesis, which posits that broader niches and larger range sizes are jointly determined under eco-evolutionary processes unique to expanding ranges, which may or may not be adaptive, but which co-shape observed latitudinal gradients in niche breadth and range size during periods of widespread range expansion. I formulate this hypothesis in comparison against previous hypotheses, exploring how each relies on equilibrium versus non-equilibrium evolutionary processes, faces differing issues of definition and scale, and results in alternative predictions for comparative risk and resilience of global ecosystems. Such differences highlight that accurate understanding of process is critical when applying macroecological insight to biodiversity forecasting. Furthermore, past conceptual emphasis on a central role of local adaptation under equilibrium conditions may have obscured a ubiquitous role of non-equilibrium evolutionary processes for generating many important, regional and global macroecological patterns. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (part I)'.

Climate change aggravates non-target effects of pesticides on dragonflies at macroecological scales

Critical gaps in understanding how species respond to environmental change limit our capacity to address conservation risks in a timely way. Here, we examine the direct and interactive effects of key global change drivers, including climate change, land use change, and pesticide use, on persistence of 104 odonate species between two time periods (1980-2002 and 2008-2018) within 100 × 100 km quadrats across the USA using phylogenetic mixed models. Non-target effects of pesticides interacted with higher maximum temperatures to contribute to odonate declines. Closely related species responded similarly to global change drivers, indicating a potential role of inherited traits in species' persistence or decline. Species shifting their range to higher latitudes were more robust to negative impacts of global change drivers generally. Inherited traits related to dispersal abilities and establishment in new places may govern both species' acclimation to global change and their abilities to expand their range limits, respectively. This work is among the first to assess effects of climate change, land use change, and land use intensification together on Odonata, a significant step that improves understanding of multispecies effects of global change on invertebrates, and further identifies conditions contributing to global insect loss.

Ocean warming alters the distributional range, migratory timing, and spatial protections of an apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier)

Given climate change threats to ecosystems, it is critical to understand the responses of species to warming. This is especially important in the case of apex predators since they exhibit relatively high extinction risk, and changes to their distribution could impact predator-prey interactions that can initiate trophic cascades. Here we used a combined analysis of animal tracking, remotely sensed environmental data, habitat modeling, and capture data to evaluate the effects of climate variability and change on the distributional range and migratory phenology of an ectothermic apex predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier). Tiger sharks satellite tracked in the western North Atlantic between 2010 and 2019 revealed significant annual variability in the geographic extent and timing of their migrations to northern latitudes from ocean warming. Specifically, tiger shark migrations have extended farther poleward and arrival times to northern latitudes have occurred earlier in the year during periods with anomalously high sea-surface temperatures. A complementary analysis of nearly 40 years of tiger shark captures in the region revealed decadal-scale changes in the distribution and timing of shark captures in parallel with long-term ocean warming. Specifically, areas of highest catch densities have progressively increased poleward and catches have occurred earlier in the year off the North American shelf. During periods of anomalously high sea-surface temperatures, movements of tracked sharks shifted beyond spatial management zones that had been affording them protection from commercial fishing and bycatch. Taken together, these study results have implications for fisheries management, human-wildlife conflict, and ecosystem functioning.

"No-regrets" pathways for navigating climate change: planning for connectivity with land use, topography, and climate

As both plant and animal species shift their ranges in response to a changing climate, maintaining connectivity between present habitat and suitable habitat in the future will become increasingly important to ensure lasting protection for biodiversity. Because the temporal period commensurate with planning for mid-century change is multi-generational for most species, connectivity designed to facilitate climate adaptation requires pathways with 'stepping-stones' between current and future habitat. These areas should have habitats suitable not only for dispersal, but for all aspects of species lifecycles. We integrated present-day land use, topographic diversity, and projections of shifting climate regimes into a single connectivity modeling approach to identify pathways for mid-century shifts in species ranges. Using Omniscape we identified climate linkages, or areas important for climate change-driven movement, as the areas with more current flow than would be expected in the absence of climate considerations. This approach identified connectivity potential between natural lands in the present climate and natural lands with future analogous climate following topo-climatically diverse routes. We then translated the model output into a strategic framework to improve interpretation and to facilitate a more direct connection with conservation action. Across modified landscapes, pathways important to climate-driven movement were highly coincident with the last remaining present-day linkages, reinforcing their importance. Across unfragmented lands, the presence of climate-adapted pathways helped inform the prioritization of conservation actions in areas where multiple connectivity options still exist. Many climate linkages follow major watercourses along elevational gradients, highlighting the importance of protecting or managing for these natural linear pathways that provide movement routes for climate adaptation. By integrating enduring landscape features with climate projections and present-day land uses, our approach reveals "no-regrets" pathways to plan for a connected landscape in an uncertain future.

Air temperatures over-predict changes to stream fish assemblages with climate warming compared with water temperatures

Studies predicting how the distribution of aquatic organisms will shift with climate change often use projected increases in air temperature or water temperature. However, the assumed correlations between water temperature change and air temperature change can be problematic, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams. Using stream fish assemblage data from 1,442 surveys across a mountain-plains gradient (Wyoming, USA; 1990-2018), we compared the responsiveness of thermal guilds, native status groups, and assemblage structure to projected climate warming from generalized air temperature models and stream-specific water temperature models. Air temperature models consistently predicted greater range shift differences between warm-water and cold-water species, with air temperatures predicting greater increases in occurrence and greater range expansions for warm-water species. The "over-prediction" of warm-water species expansions resulted in air temperature models predicting higher rates of novel species combinations, greater increases in local species richness, and higher magnitudes of biotic homogenization compared with water temperature models. Despite differences in model predictions for warm-water species, both air and water temperature models predicted that three cold-water species would exhibit similar decreases in occurrence (decline of 1.0% and 1.8% of sites per 1°C warming, respectively) and similar range contractions (16.6 and 21.5 m elevation loss per 1°C warming, respectively). The "over-prediction" for warm-water species is partially attributable to water temperatures warming at slower rates than air temperatures because local, stream-scale factors (e.g., riparian cover, groundwater inputs) buffer high elevation streams from rising air temperatures. Our study provides the first comparison of how inferences about climate-induced biotic change at the species- and assemblage-levels differ when modeling with generalized air temperatures versus stream-specific water temperatures. We recommend that future studies use stream-specific water temperature models, especially for mountainous, high elevation streams, to avoid the "over-prediction" of biotic changes observed from air temperature variables.

Range Sizes of the World's Mammals, Birds, and Amphibians from the Mid-Holocene to the Industrial Period

Simple Summary

The geographic ranges of animal species play an important role for many ecological processes. Changes in climate, as well as human conversion of natural habitats, are two major factors that affect species’ range sizes. While the impact of these two factors in the Industrial era has been thoroughly studied, their pre-Industrial impacts are less well understood further back in time. Here, we combine global reconstructions of land use and climate from 6000 BCE to 1850 CE with data of the geographic distributions and habitat requirements of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species to estimate how human land use and natural climatic change have altered species’ ranges across past millennia. Our results suggest that pre-Industrial land use had only a small impact, yet one that affected almost all species negatively. Climatic variation evidently led to some range expansions and contractions, but overall had a small impact on the majority of species. In the context of a previous study of range changes in the more recent past, our results demonstrate that current rates of range losses exceed the magnitude of range changes seen over many thousands of years prior to the Industrial period to an alarming extent.

Abstract

Anthropogenic land use and climate change in the Industrial age have had substantial impacts on the geographic ranges of the world’s terrestrial animal species. How do these impacts compare against those in the millennia preceding the Industrial era? Here, we combine reconstructions of global climate and land use from 6000 BCE to 1850 CE with empirical data on the spatial distributions and habitat requirements of 16,919 mammal, bird, and amphibian species to estimate changes in their range sizes through time. We find that land use had only a small, yet almost entirely negative impact during most of the study period, whilst natural climatic variability led to some range expansions and contractions; but, overall it had a small impact on the majority of species. Our results provide a baseline for comparison with studies of range changes during the Industrial period, demonstrating that contemporary rates of range loss exceed the magnitude of range changes seen over many thousands of years prior to the Industrial period by an alarming extent.

An overview of Estonian woodlice (Isopoda, Oniscidea)

An overview of the Estonian terrestrial isopod fauna is given, based on literature data and material collected from 1984 to 2021. The identified material consisted of 10915 specimens belonging to 14 species and collected from 172 localities throughout Estonia. In combination with previous data from the literature data, there are now reliable records of 16 species of woodlice from Estonia. Two species, viz. Platyarthrushoffmannseggii Brandt, 1833 and Hyloniscusriparius (C. Koch, 1838), are new for the fauna. The latter has probably colonised Estonia recently and range expansions have been reported elsewhere. The data on Philosciamuscorum (Scopoli, 1763) are dubious, and this species is currently excluded from the Estonian list.

Evolutionary conservatism will limit responses to climate change in the tropics

Rapid species turnover in tropical mountains has fascinated biologists for centuries. A popular explanation for this heightened beta diversity is that climatic stability at low latitudes promotes the evolution of narrow thermal tolerance ranges, leading to local adaptation, evolutionary divergence and parapatric speciation along elevational gradients. However, an emerging consensus from research spanning phylogenetics, biogeography and behavioural ecology is that this process rarely, if ever, occurs. Instead, closely related species typically occupy a similar elevational niche, while species with divergent elevational niches tend to be more distantly related. These results suggest populations have responded to past environmental change not by adapting and diverging in place, but instead by shifting their distributions to tightly track climate over time. We argue that tropical species are likely to respond similarly to ongoing and future climate warming, an inference supported by evidence from recent range shifts. In the absence of widespread in situ adaptation to new climate regimes by tropical taxa, conservation planning should prioritize protecting large swaths of habitat to facilitate movement.

Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts

Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined whether the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, that this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and that transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. These geographic patterns in plant population × microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

under future climate change

Understanding and predicting how species will respond to climate change is crucial for biodiversity conservation. Here, we assessed future climate change impacts on the distribution of a rare and endangered plant species, Davidia involucrate in China, using the most recent global circulation models developed in the sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC6). We assessed the potential range shifts in this species by using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs). The ensemble SDMs exhibited high predictive ability and suggested that the temperature annual range, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of the driest month are the most influential predictors in shaping distribution patterns of this species. The projections of the ensemble SDMs also suggested that D. involucrate is very vulnerable to future climate change, with at least one-third of its suitable range expected to be lost in all future climate change scenarios and will shift to the northward of high-latitude regions. Similarly, at least one-fifth of the overlap area of the current nature reserve networks and projected suitable habitat is also expected to be lost. These findings suggest that it is of great importance to ensure that adaptive conservation management strategies are in place to mitigate the impacts of climate change on D. involucrate.

Habitat patches providing south-north connectivity are under-protected in a fragmented landscape

As species' ranges shift to track climate change, conservationists increasingly recognize the need to consider connectivity when designating protected areas (PAs). In fragmented landscapes, some habitat patches are more important than others in maintaining connectivity, and methods are needed for their identification. Here, using the Condatis methodology, we model range expansion through an adaptation of circuit theory. Specifically, we map 'flow' through 16 conservation priority habitat networks in England, quantifying how patches contribute to functional South-North connectivity. We also explore how much additional connectivity could be protected via a connectivity-led protection procedure. We find high-flow patches are often left out of existing PAs; across 12 of 16 habitat networks, connectivity protection falls short of area protection by 13.6% on average. We conclude that the legacy of past protection decisions has left habitat-specialist species vulnerable to climate change. This situation may be mirrored in many countries which have similar habitat protection principles. Addressing this requires specific planning tools that can account for the directions species may shift. Our connectivity-led reserve selection procedure efficiently identifies additional PAs that prioritize connectivity, protecting a median of 40.9% more connectivity in these landscapes with just a 10% increase in area.

Rugged relief and climate promote isolation and divergence between two neotropical cold-associated birds

The role of historical factors in establishing patterns of diversity in tropical mountains is of interest to understand the buildup of megadiverse biotas. In these regions, the historical processes of range fragmentation and contraction followed by dispersal are thought to be mediated by the interplay between rugged relief (complex topography) and climate fluctuations and likely explain most of the dynamics of diversification in plants and animals. Although empirical studies addressing the interaction between climate and topography have provided invaluable insights into population divergence and speciation patterns in tropical montane organisms, a more detailed and robust test of such processes in an explicit spatio-temporal framework is still lacking. Consequently, our ability to gain insights into historical range shifts over time and the genomic footprint left by them is limited. Here, we used niche modeling and subgenomic population-level datasets to explore the evolution of two species of warbling finches (genus Microspingus) disjunctly distributed across the Montane Atlantic Forest, a Neotropical region with complex geological and environmental histories. Population structure inferences suggest a scenario of three genetically differentiated populations, which are congruent with both geography and phenotypic variation. Demographic simulations support asynchronous isolation of these populations as recently as ∼40,000 years ago, relatively stable population sizes over recent time, and past gene flow subsequent to divergence. Throughout the last 800,000 years, niche models predicted extensive expansion into lowland areas with increasing overlap of species distributions during glacial periods, with prominent retractions and isolation into higher altitudes during interglacials, which are in line with signs of introgression of currently isolated populations. These results support a dual role of cyclical climatic changes: population divergence and persistence in mountain tops during warm periods followed by periods of expansion and admixture in lower elevations during cold periods. Our results underscore the role of the interplay between landscape and climate as an important mechanism in the evolution of the Neotropical montane biota.

Climate-induced range shifts shaped the present and threaten the future genetic variability of a marine brown alga in the Northwest Pacific

Glaciation-induced environmental changes during the last glacial maximum (LGM) have strongly influenced species' distributions and genetic diversity patterns in the northern high latitudes. However, these effects have seldom been assessed on sessile species in the Northwest Pacific. Herein, we chose the brown alga Sargassum thunbergii to test this hypothesis, by comparing present population genetic variability with inferred geographical range shifts from the LGM to the present, estimated with species distribution modelling (SDM). Projections for contrasting scenarios of future climate change were also developed to anticipate genetic diversity losses at regional scales. Results showed that S. thunbergii harbours strikingly rich genetic diversity and multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range of its distribution, in contrast with a poorer genetically distinct lineage in the southern range. SDM hindcasted refugial persistence in the southern range during the LGM as well as post-LGM expansion of 18 degrees of latitude northward. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analysis further suggested that the multiple divergent lineages in the centre-northern range limit stem from post-LGM colonization from the southern survived lineage. This suggests divergence due to demographic bottlenecks during range expansion and massive genetic diversity loss during post-LGM contraction in the south. The projected future range of S. thunbergii highlights the threat to unique gene pools that might be lost under global changes.

Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (45%) used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends were observed for the minority of species (15%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

How Dispersal Evolution and Local Adaptation Affect the Range Dynamics of Species Lagging Behind Climate Change

AbstractAs climate changes, species' ability to spatially track suitable climate depends on their spread velocity, a function of their population growth and dispersal capacity. When climate changes faster than species can spread, the climate experienced at species' expanding range edges may ameliorate as conditions become increasingly similar to those of the range core. When this boosts species' growth rates, their spread accelerates. Here, we use simulations of a spreading population with an annual life history to explore how climatic amelioration interacts with dispersal evolution and local adaptation to determine the dynamics of spread. We found that depending on the timing of dispersal evolution, spread velocity can show contrasting trajectories, sometimes transiently exceeding the climate velocity before decelerating. Climatic amelioration can also accelerate the spread of populations composed of genotypes best adapted to local climatic conditions, but the exact dynamics depends on the pattern of climatic adaptation. We conclude that failing to account for demographic variation across climatic gradients can lead to erroneous conclusions about species' capacity to spatially track suitable climate.

The role of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in nonnative plant invasion along mountain roads

Plant associated mutualists can mediate invasion success by affecting the ecological niche of nonnative plant species. Anthropogenic disturbance is also key in facilitating invasion success through changes in biotic and abiotic conditions, but the combined effect of these two factors in natural environments is understudied. To better understand this interaction, we investigated how disturbance and its interaction with mycorrhizas could impact range dynamics of nonnative plant species in the mountains of Norway. Therefore, we studied the root colonisation and community composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in disturbed vs undisturbed plots along mountain roads. We found that roadside disturbance strongly increases fungal diversity and richness while also promoting AM fungal root colonisation in an otherwise ecto-mycorrhiza and ericoid-mycorrhiza dominated environment. Surprisingly, AM fungi associating with nonnative plant species were present across the whole elevation gradient, even above the highest elevational limit of nonnative plants, indicating that mycorrhizal fungi are not currently limiting the upward movement of nonnative plants. We conclude that roadside disturbance has a positive effect on AM fungal colonisation and richness, possibly supporting the spread of nonnative plants, but that there is no absolute limitation of belowground mutualists, even at high elevation.

Regional disparity in extinction risk: Comparison of disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia and eastern North America

Climate and land cover changes are increasing threats to biodiversity globally. However, potentially varying biotic sensitivity is a major source of uncertainty for translating environmental changes to extinction risks. To reduce this uncertainty, we assessed how extinction risks will be affected by future human-driven environmental changes, focusing on 554 species from 52 disjunct plant genera between eastern Asia (EAS) and eastern North America (ENA) to control for differences in environmental sensitivity at the genus level. Species distribution models were used to estimate and compare the vulnerability of species in disjunct genera between the two regions under two climate and land cover change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in the 2070s, allowing to assess the effects of differences in climate and land cover pressures. Compared with ENA, stronger pressures from climate and land cover changes along with smaller range sizes in EAS translate into a larger number and proportion of species in disjunct genera becoming threatened by the 2070s. These regional differences are more pronounced under a best-case climate scenario (RCP2.6), illustrating that strong climate change (RCP8.5) may override any regional buffer capacities. The main variables determining extinction risks differed between the two continental regions, with annual temperature range and cropland expansion being important in EAS, and annual precipitation being important in ENA. These results suggest that disparities in regional exposure to anthropogenic environmental changes may cause congeneric species with relatively similar sensitivity to have different future risks of extinction. Moreover, the findings highlight the context-specific nature of anthropogenic effects on biodiversity and the importance of making region-specific policies for conservation and restoration in response to the intensifying global changes.

Climate-driven range shifts reduce persistence of competitors in a perennial plant community

Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species persistence in diverse natural communities requires a way to account for indirect effects mediated through species interactions. In particular, we expect species to experience major changes in competition as they track favorable climates. Here, we combine experimental data with a recently developed theoretical framework based on coexistence theory to measure the impact of climate-driven range shifts on alpine plant persistence under climate change. We transplanted three co-dominant alpine perennial species to five elevations, creating a maximum of 5°C increase in average growing-season temperature. We statistically modeled species' demographic rates in response to the environment and interpolated species' intrinsic ranges-the environmental mapping of reproduction in the absence of competition. We used low-density population growth rates-species' initial rate of invasion into an established community-as a metric of persistence. Further analysis of low-density growth rates (LGRs) allowed us to parse the direct impacts of climate change from indirect impacts mediated by shifting competition. Our models predict qualitatively different range shifts for each species based on the climate conditions under which growth rates are maximized and where they are zero. Overall, climate change is predicted to increase the intrinsic (competition free) growth rates of all species, as warmer and wetter conditions increase the favorability of alpine habitat. However, these benefits are entirely negated by increased competition arising from greater overlap between competitors in their intrinsic ranges. Species were highly dispersal limited, which can prevent species from tracking shifting intrinsic ranges by reducing population spread rates. Yet dispersal limitation also promoted species' persistence because it promotes persistence mechanisms. Our study demonstrates the complex pathways by which climate change impacts species' persistence by altering their competitive environment, and highlights how a persistence framework based on LGRs can help disentangle impacts.

Spatial and temporal shifts in photoperiod with climate change

Climate change causes both temporal (e.g. advancing spring phenology) and geographic (e.g. range expansion poleward) species shifts, which affect the photoperiod experienced at critical developmental stages ('experienced photoperiod'). As photoperiod is a common trigger of seasonal biological responses - affecting woody plant spring phenology in 87% of reviewed studies that manipulated photoperiod - shifts in experienced photoperiod may have important implications for future plant distributions and fitness. However, photoperiod has not been a focus of climate change forecasting to date, especially for early-season ('spring') events, often assumed to be driven by temperature. Synthesizing published studies, we find that impacts on experienced photoperiod from temporal shifts could be orders of magnitude larger than from spatial shifts (1.6 h of change for expected temporal vs 1 min for latitudinal shifts). Incorporating these effects into forecasts is possible by leveraging existing experimental data; we show that results from growth chamber experiments on woody plants often have data relevant for climate change impacts, and suggest that shifts in experienced photoperiod may increasingly constrain responses to additional warming. Further, combining modeling approaches and empirical work on when, where and how much photoperiod affects phenology could rapidly advance our understanding and predictions of future spatio-temporal shifts from climate change.

European plants lagging behind climate change pay a climatic debt in the North, but are favoured in the South

For many species, climate change leads to range shifts that are detectable, but often insufficient to track historical climatic conditions. These lags of species range shifts behind climatic conditions are often coined "climatic debts", but the demographic costs entailed by the word "debt" have not been demonstrated. Here, we used opportunistic distribution data for c. 4000 European plant species to estimate the temporal shifts in climatic conditions experienced by these species and their occupancy trends, over the last 65 years. The resulting negative relationship observed between these two variables provides the first piece of evidence that European plants are already paying a climatic debt in Alpine, Atlantic and Boreal regions. In contrast, plants appear to benefit from a surprising "climatic bonus" in the Mediterranean. We also find that among multiple pressures faced by plants, climate change is now on par with other known drivers of occupancy trends, including eutrophication and urbanisation.

Unusually large upward shifts in cold-adapted, montane mammals as temperature warms

The largest and tallest mountain range in the contiguous United States, the Southern Rocky Mountains, has warmed considerably in the past several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. Herein we examine how 47 mammal elevational ranges (27 rodent and 4 shrew species) have changed from their historical distributions (1886-1979) to their contemporary distributions (post 2005) along 2,400-m elevational gradients in the Front Range and San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical elevational ranges were based on more than 4,580 georeferenced museum specimen and publication records. Contemporary elevational ranges were based on 7,444 records from systematic sampling efforts and museum specimen records. We constructed Bayesian models to estimate the probability a species was present, but undetected, due to undersampling at each 50-m elevational bin for each time period and mountain range. These models leveraged individual-level detection probabilities, the number and patchiness of detections across 50-m bands of elevation, and a decaying likelihood of presence from last known detections. We compared 95% likelihood elevational ranges between historical and contemporary time periods to detect directional change. Responses were variable as 26 mammal ranges changed upward, 6 did not change, 11 changed downward, and 4 were extirpated locally. The average range shift was 131 m upward, while exclusively montane species shifted upward more often (75%) and displayed larger average range shifts (346 m). The best predictors of upper limit and total directional change were species with higher maximum latitude in their geographic range, montane affiliation, and the study mountain was at the southern edge of their geographic range. Thus, mammals in the Southern Rocky Mountains serve as harbingers of more changes to come, particularly for montane, cold-adapted species in the southern portion of their ranges.

Range dynamics mediated by compensatory life stage responses to experimental climate manipulations

The expectations of polar or upslope distributional shifts of species ranges in response to warming climate conditions have been recently questioned. Diverse responses of different life stages to changing temperature and moisture regimes may alter these predicted range dynamics. Furthermore, the climate driver(s) influencing demographic rates, and the contribution of each demographic rate to population growth rate (λ), may shift across a species range. We investigated these demographic effects by experimentally manipulating climate and measuring responses of λ in nine populations spanning the elevation range of an alpine plant (Ivesia lycopodioides). Populations exhibited stable growth rates (λ ~ 1) under naturally wet conditions and declining rates (λ < 1) under naturally dry conditions. However, opposing vital rate responses to experimental heating and watering lead to negligible or negative effects on population stability. These findings indicate that life stage-specific responses to changing climate can disrupt the current relationships between population stability and climate across species ranges.

Species-specific responses of a marsh-forest ecotone plant community responding to climate change

Ecotones are responsive to environmental change and pave a path for succession as they move across the landscape. We investigated the biotic and abiotic filters to species establishment on opposite ends of a tidal marsh-forest ecotone that is moving inland in response to sea level rise. We transplanted four plant species common to the ecotone to the leading or trailing edge of the migrating ecotone, with and without caging to protect them from ungulate herbivores. We found that species exhibited an individualistic response to abiotic and biotic pressures in this ecotone; three species performed better at the leading edge of the ecotone in the coastal forest, whereas one performed better at the trailing edge in the marsh. Specifically, grass species Phragmites australis and Panicum virgatum grew more in the low light and low salinity conditions of the leading edge of the ecotone (forest), whereas the shrub Iva frutescens grew better in the high light, high salinity conditions of the trailing edge of the ecotone (marsh). Furthermore, of the four species, only P. australis was affected by the biotic pressure of herbivory by an introduced ungulate, Cervus nippon, which greatly reduced its biomass and survival at the leading edge (forest). P. australis is an aggressive invasive species and has been observed to dominate in the wake of migrating marsh-forest ecotones. Our findings detail the role of lower salinity stress to promote and herbivory pressure to inhibit the establishment of P. australis during shifts of this ecotone, and also highlight an interaction between two nonnative species, P. australis and C. nippon. Understanding migration of the marsh-forest ecotone and the factors controlling P. australis establishment are critical for marsh conservation in the face of sea level rise. More generally, our findings support the conclusion that the abiotic and biotic filters of a migrating ecotone shape the resulting community.

Spatial structure of reproductive success infers mechanisms of ungulate invasion in Nearctic boreal landscapes

Landscape change is a key driver of biodiversity declines due to habitat loss and fragmentation, but spatially shifting resources can also facilitate range expansion and invasion. Invasive populations are reproductively successful, and landscape change may buoy this success.We show how modeling the spatial structure of reproductive success can elucidate the mechanisms of range shifts and sustained invasions for mammalian species with attendant young. We use an example of white-tailed deer (deer; Odocoileus virginianus) expansion in the Nearctic boreal forest, a North American phenomenon implicated in severe declines of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus).We hypothesized that deer reproductive success is linked to forage subsidies provided by extensive landscape change via resource extraction. We measured deer occurrence using data from 62 camera traps in northern Alberta, Canada, over three years. We weighed support for multiple competing hypotheses about deer reproductive success using multistate occupancy models and generalized linear models in an AIC-based model selection framework.Spatial patterns of reproductive success were best explained by features associated with petroleum exploration and extraction, which offer early-seral vegetation resource subsidies. Effect sizes of anthropogenic features eclipsed natural heterogeneity by two orders of magnitude. We conclude that anthropogenic early-seral forage subsidies support high springtime reproductive success, mitigating or exceeding winter losses, maintaining populations. Synthesis and Applications. Modeling spatial structuring in reproductive success can become a key goal of remote camera-based global networks, yielding ecological insights into mechanisms of invasion and range shifts to inform effective decision-making for global biodiversity conservation.

Antarctic ecosystems in transition - life between stresses and opportunities

Important findings from the second decade of the 21st century on the impact of environmental change on biological processes in the Antarctic were synthesised by 26 international experts. Ten key messages emerged that have stakeholder-relevance and/or a high impact for the scientific community. They address (i) altered biogeochemical cycles, (ii) ocean acidification, (iii) climate change hotspots, (iv) unexpected dynamism in seabed-dwelling populations, (v) spatial range shifts, (vi) adaptation and thermal resilience, (vii) sea ice related biological fluctuations, (viii) pollution, (ix) endangered terrestrial endemism and (x) the discovery of unknown habitats. Most Antarctic biotas are exposed to multiple stresses and considered vulnerable to environmental change due to narrow tolerance ranges, rapid change, projected circumpolar impacts, low potential for timely genetic adaptation, and migration barriers. Important ecosystem functions, such as primary production and energy transfer between trophic levels, have already changed, and biodiversity patterns have shifted. A confidence assessment of the degree of 'scientific understanding' revealed an intermediate level for most of the more detailed sub-messages, indicating that process-oriented research has been successful in the past decade. Additional efforts are necessary, however, to achieve the level of robustness in scientific knowledge that is required to inform protection measures of the unique Antarctic terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and their contributions to global biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Projected climate change threatens significant range contraction of Cochemiea halei (Cactaceae), an island endemic, serpentine-adapted plant species at risk of extinction

AIM

Threats faced by narrowly distributed endemic plant species in the face of the Earth's sixth mass extinction and climate change exposure are especially severe for taxa on islands. We investigated the current and projected distribution and range changes of Cochemiea halei, an endemic island cactus. This taxon is of conservation concern, currently listed as vulnerable on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature Red List and as a species of special concern under Mexican federal law. The goals of this study are to (a) identify the correlations between climate variables and current suitable habitat for C. halei; (b) determine whether the species is a serpentine endemic or has a facultative relationship with ultramafic soils; and (c) predict range changes of the species based on climate change scenarios.

LOCATION

The island archipelago in Bahía Magdalena on the Pacific coast, Baja California Sur, Mexico.

METHODS

We used temperature and precipitation variables at 30-arc second resolution and soil type, employing multiple species distribution modeling methods, to identify important climate and soil conditions driving current habitat suitability. The best model of current suitability is used to predict possible effects of four climate change scenarios based on best-case to worst-case representative concentration pathways, with projected climate data from two general circulation models, over two time periods.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

The occurrence of the species is found to be strongly correlated with ultramafic soils. The most important climate predictor for habitat suitability is annual temperature range. The species is predicted to undergo range contractions from 21% to 53%, depending on the severity and duration of exposure to climate change. The broader implications for a wide range of narrowly adapted, threatened, and endemic plant species indicate an urgent need for threat assessment based on habitat suitability and climate change modeling.

Population genomic data in spider mites point to a role for local adaptation in shaping range shifts

Local adaptation is particularly likely in invertebrate pests that typically have short generation times and large population sizes, but there are few studies on pest species investigating local adaptation and separating this process from contemporaneous and historical gene flow. Here, we use a population genomic approach to investigate evolutionary processes in the two most dominant spider mites in China, Tetranychus truncatus Ehara and Tetranychus pueraricola Ehara et Gotoh, which have wide distributions, short generation times, and large population sizes. We generated genome resequencing of 246 spider mites mostly from China, as well as Japan and Canada at a combined total depth of 3,133×. Based on demographic reconstruction, we found that both mite species likely originated from refugia in southwestern China and then spread to other regions, with the dominant T. truncatus spreading ~3,000 years later than T. pueraricola. Estimated changes in population sizes of the pests matched known periods of glaciation and reinforce the recent expansion of the dominant spider mites. T. truncatus showed a greater extent of local adaptation with more genes (76 vs. 17) associated with precipitation, including candidates involved in regulation of homeostasis of water and ions, signal transduction, and motor skills. In both species, many genes (135 in T. truncatus and 95 in T. pueraricola) also showed signatures of selection related to elevation, including G-protein-coupled receptors, cytochrome P450s, and ABC-transporters. Our results point to historical expansion processes and climatic adaptation in these pests which could have contributed to their growing importance, particularly in the case of T. truncatus.

Opposing life stage-specific effects of ocean warming at source and sink populations of range-shifting coral-reef fishes

Climate change is altering the latitudinal distributions of species, with their capacity to keep pace with a shifting climate depending on the stochastic expression of population growth rates, and the influence of compensatory density feedback on age-specific survival rates. We use population-abundance time series at the leading edge of an expanding species' range to quantify the contribution of stochastic environmental drivers and density feedbacks to the dynamics of life stage-specific population growth. Using a tropical, range-shifting Indo-Pacific damselfish (Abudefduf vaigiensis) as a model organism, we applied variants of the phenomenological Gompertz-logistic model to a 14-year dataset to quantify the relative importance of density feedback and stochastic environmental drivers on the separate and aggregated population growth rates of settler and juvenile life stages. The top-ranked models indicated that density feedback negatively affected the growth of tropical settlers and juveniles. Rates of settlement were negatively linked to temperatures experienced by parents at potential source populations in the tropics, but their subsequent survival and that of juveniles increased with the temperatures experienced at the temperate sink. Including these stochastic effects doubled the deviance explained by the models, corroborating an important role of temperature. By incorporating sea-surface temperature projections for the remainder of this century into these models, we anticipate improved conditions for the population growth of juvenile coral-reef fishes, but not for settlers in temperate ecosystems. Previous research has highlighted the association between temperature and the redistribution of species. Our analyses reveal the contrasting roles of different life stages in the dynamics of range-shifting species responding to climate change, as they transition from vagrancy to residency in their novel ranges.

Climate change has different predicted effects on the range shifts of two hybridizing ambush bug (Phymata, Family Reduviidae, Order Hemiptera) species

AIM

A universal attribute of species is that their distributions are limited by numerous factors that may be difficult to quantify. Furthermore, climate change-induced range shifts have been reported in many taxa, and understanding the implications of these shifts remains a priority and a challenge. Here, we use Maxent to predict current suitable habitat and to project future distributions of two closely related, parapatrically distributed Phymata species in light of anthropogenic climate change.

LOCATION

North America.

TAXON

Phymata americana Melin 1930 and Phymata pennsylvanica Handlirsch 1897, Family: Reduviidae, Order: Hemiptera.

METHODS

We used the maximum entropy modeling software Maxent to identify environmental variables maintaining the distribution of two Phymata species, Phymata americana and Phymata pennsylvanica. Species occurrence data were collected from museum databases, and environmental data were collected from WorldClim. Once we gathered distribution maps for both species, we created binary suitability maps of current distributions. To predict future distributions in 2050 and 2070, the same environmental variables were used, this time under four different representative concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5; as well, binary suitability maps of future distributions were also created. To visualize potential future hybridization, the degree of overlap between the two Phymata species was calculated.

RESULTS

The strongest predictor to P. americana ranges was the mean temperature of the warmest quarter, while precipitation of the driest month and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were strong predictors of P. pennsylvanica ranges. Future ranges for P. americana are predicted to increase northwestward at higher CO2 concentrations. Suitable ranges for P. pennsylvanica are predicted to decrease with slight fluctuations around range edges. There is an increase in overlapping ranges of the two species in all future predictions.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

These evidences for different environmental requirements for P. americana and P. pennsylvanica account for their distinct ranges. Because these species are ecologically similar and can hybridize, climate change has potentially important eco-evolutionary ramifications. Overall, our results are consistent with effects of climate change that are highly variable across species, geographic regions, and over time.