Clinico-epidemiological presentations and management of Nipah virus infection during the outbreak in Kozhikode district, Kerala state, India 2023

India experienced its sixth Nipah virus (NiV) outbreak in September 2023 in the Kozhikode district of Kerala state. The NiV is primarily transmitted by spillover events from infected bats followed by human-to-human transmission. The clinical specimens were screened using real-time RT-PCR, and positive specimens were further characterized using next-generation sequencing. We describe here an in-depth clinical presentation and management of NiV-confirmed cases and outbreak containment activities. The current outbreak reported a total of six cases with two deaths, with a case fatality ratio of 33.33%. The cases had a mixed presentation of acute respiratory distress syndrome and encephalitis syndrome. Fever was a persistent presentation in all the cases. The Nipah viral RNA was detected in clinical specimens until the post-onset day of illness (POD) 14, with viral load in the range of 1.7-3.3 × 104 viral RNA copies/mL. The genomic analysis showed that the sequences from the current outbreak clustered into the Indian clade similar to the 2018 and 2019 outbreaks. This study highlights the vigilance of the health system to detect and effectively manage the clustering of cases with clinical presentations similar to NiV, which led to early detection and containment activities.

Extreme value modelling of SARS-CoV-2 community transmission using discrete generalized Pareto distributions

Superspreading has been suggested to be a major driver of overall transmission in the case of SARS-CoV-2. It is, therefore, important to statistically investigate the tail features of superspreading events (SSEs) to better understand virus propagation and control. Our extreme value analysis of different sources of secondary case data indicates that case numbers of SSEs associated with SARS-CoV-2 may be fat-tailed, although substantially less so than predicted recently in the literature, but also less important relative to SSEs associated with SARS-CoV. The results caution against pooling data from both coronaviruses. This could provide policy- and decision-makers with a more reliable assessment of the tail exposure to SARS-CoV-2 contamination. Going further, we consider the broader problem of large community transmission. We study the tail behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 cluster cases documented both in official reports and in the media. Our results suggest that the observed cluster sizes have been fat-tailed in the vast majority of surveyed countries. We also give estimates and confidence intervals of the extreme potential risk for those countries. A key component of our methodology is up-to-date discrete generalized Pareto models which allow for maximum likelihood-based inference of data with a high degree of discreteness.

Potential for international spread of wild poliovirus via travelers

BACKGROUND

The endgame of polio eradication is hampered by the international spread of poliovirus via travelers. In response to ongoing importations of poliovirus into polio-free countries, on 5 May 2014, WHO's Director-General declared the international spread of wild poliovirus a public health emergency of international concern. Our objective was to develop a mathematical model to estimate the international spread of polio infections.

METHODS

Our model took into account polio endemicity in polio-infected countries, population size, polio immunization coverage rates, infectious period, the asymptomatic-to-symptomatic ratio, and also the probability of a traveler being infectious at the time of travel. We applied our model to three scenarios: (1) number of exportations of both symptomatic and asymptomatic polio infections out of currently polio-infected countries, (2) the risk of spread of poliovirus to Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims, and (3) the importation risk of poliovirus into India.

RESULTS

Our model estimated 665 polio exportations (>99 % of which were asymptomatic) from nine polio-infected countries in 2014, of which 78.3 % originated from Pakistan. Our model also estimated 21 importations of poliovirus into Saudi Arabia via Hajj pilgrims and 20 poliovirus infections imported to India in the same year.

CONCLUSION

The extent of importations of asymptomatic and symptomatic polio infections is substantial. For countries that are vulnerable to polio outbreaks due to poor national polio immunization coverage rates, our newly developed model may help guide policy-makers to decide whether imposing an entry requirement in terms of proof of vaccination against polio would be justified.