Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves

Various indicators of resource scarcity and methods for extrapolating resource availability are examined for phosphorus. These include resource lifetime, and trends in resource price, ore grade and discovery rates, and Hubbert curve extrapolation. Several of these indicate increasing scarcity of phosphate resources. Calculated resource lifetime is subject to a number of caveats such as unanticipated future changes in resource discovery, mining and beneficiation technology, population growth or per-capita demand. Thus it should be used only as a rough planning index or as a relative indicator of potential scarcity. This paper examines the uncertainty in one method for estimating available resources from historical production data. The confidence intervals for the parameters and predictions of the Hubbert curves are computed as they relate to the amount of information available. These show that Hubbert-type extrapolations are not robust for predicting the ultimately recoverable reserves or year of peak production of phosphate rock. Previous successes of the Hubbert curve are for cases in which there exist alternative resources, which is not the situation for phosphate. It is suggested that data other than historical production, such as population growth, identified resources and economic factors, should be included in making such forecasts.

Virtual phosphorus ore requirement of Japanese economy

Phosphorus is indispensable for agricultural production. Hence, the consumption of imported food indirectly implies the import of phosphorus resources. The global consumption of agricultural products depends on a small number of ore-producing countries. For sustainable management of phosphorus resources, the global supply and demand network should be clarified. In this study, we propose the virtual phosphorus ore requirement as a new indicator of the direct and indirect phosphorus requirements for our society. The virtual phosphorus ore requirement indicates the direct and indirect demands for phosphorus ore transformed into agricultural products and fertilizer. In this study, the virtual phosphorus ore requirement was evaluated for the Japanese economy in 2005. Importantly, the results show that our society requires twice as much phosphorus ore as the domestic demand for fertilizer production. The phosphorus contained in "eaten" agricultural products was only 12% of virtual phosphorus ore requirement.

Optimization of low-cost phosphorus removal from wastewater using co-treatments with constructed wetlands

Eighteen wastewater treatment systems were operated for one year to investigate phosphorus (P) removal. Systems paired co-treatment reactors containing iron or calcium drinking water treatment residuals with vertical-flow constructed wetland mesocosms planted with Schoenoplectus tabernaemontani (K.C. Gmel.) Palla. For secondary municipal wastewater, soluble reactive P (SRP) concentrations were reduced from 0.70 to 0.03 mg L(-1) (95%) or 0.01 mg L(-1) (98%) by systems with the calcium or iron co-treatments, respectively (compared to 0.09 mg L(-1) or 87% by controls). Total P (TP) concentrations were reduced from 1.00 to 0.07 mg L(-1) (93%) and 0.05 mg L(-1) (95%) by the same treatments (compared to 0.16 mg L(-1) or 84% by controls). For anaerobically digested dairy wastewater, SRP was reduced from 7.68 to 6.43 mg L(-1) (16%) or 5.95 mg L(-1) (22%) by the systems with calcium or iron, respectively (compared to 7.37 mg L(-1) or 4% by controls). For this wastewater, the TP was reduced from 48.5 to 22.5 mg L(-1) (53%) and 22.7 mg L(-1) (53%) by the same treatments (compared to 24.1 mg L(-1) or 50% by controls) but performance improved substantially with a design modification tested.

[Coupling effect of water and fertilizers on spring wheat yield in semi-arid area of western Liaoning Province]

With optimum saturation design, a field experiment was conducted to study the coupling effect of water and fertilizers on spring wheat yield in semiarid area of western Liaoning Province. Regression model shows that water was the most important factor affecting spring wheat yield. Under natural raining and when the upper and the lower limit of irrigation was 360 mm and 45 mm, respectively, N was the most sensitive factor, water was the second, and P was the third. The effects of N, P and water on yield were statistically significant, and met the law of diminishing return. The most economic matching pattern of N, P and water was N 186 kg.hm-2, P 63 kg.hm-2, and water 300 mm. Properly increasing phosphorus fertilizer at the lack of water could strengthen the drought-resistance of spring wheat.