Climate Changes and COVID-19

Climatic change, which influences population growth and land usage, has been theorized to be linked to the emergence and spread of new viruses like the currently unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. In this chapter, we explain how climate change may have altered the beginning, transmission, and maybe even the sickness consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Where possible, we also provide mechanistic explanations for how this may have occurred. We have presented evidence that suggests climate change may have had a role in the establishment and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and most possibly even in some of its clinical effects. Human activities bringing people into closer contact with bats and animals like pangolins that potentially represent the intermediate hosts, and evidence that climate-induced changes in vegetation are the main reservoir source of coronaviruses for human infection, are among the explanations. Although there are still unsubstantiated indications that the first viral pathogen may have escaped from a laboratory, it is possible that this encounter took place in the field or in marketplaces in the instance of COVID-19. We also present the argument that climate change is working to enhance transmission between diseased and uninfected humans, and this is true regardless of the source of the original development of the disease. Changes in temperature and humidity make it easier for viruses to survive, and the impacts of industrial pollution induce people to cough and sneeze, which releases highly infectious aerosols into the air. These three factors combine to make this a more likely scenario than it would otherwise be. We suggest that changes in climate are contributing to create conditions that are favorable for the development of more severe symptoms of illness. It is more difficult to build the argument for this circumstance, and much of it is indirect. However, climate change has caused some communities to adjust their nutritional habits, both in terms of the quantity of food they eat and the quality of the foods they consume. The effects frequently become apparent as a result of alterations that are imposed on the microbiome of the gut, which, in turn, influence the types of immune responses that are produced. The incidence of comorbidities like diabetes and animal vectors like bats that transmit other illnesses that modify vulnerability to SARS-CoV-2 are also two examples of the factors that have been affected by climate change. In order to curb the development of infectious illnesses caused by new viruses, it is necessary to understand the connection between environmental dynamics and the emergence of new coronaviruses. This knowledge should lead to initiatives aimed at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Three regimens for re-treatment failure of Sofosbuvir-based therapy for chronic hepatitis-C genotype-4: a cohort study

Despite the high sustained virologic response (SVR) rates of direct-acting antiviral (DAAs) therapy, a small number of patients does not eradicate the virus, and these patients represent a challenge. This study aims to compare the outcomes of three second-line regimens for DAAs-experienced patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). This prospective observational study was conducted at the Damanhur Viral Hepatitis Center from January 2017 to February 2020. We included patients with CHC who did not achieve SVR after the complete course of Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir±Ribavirin (SOF/DAC±RBV). The primary endpoint was SVR-12 after re-treatment. This study included 360 patients (with a mean age of 51.53±11.38 years). Approximately 51.1% of the patients were males, and 65.5% had liver cirrhosis. All patients of group 1 (45 patients) received SOF/VEL/VOX over 12-weeks; SVR-12 was achieved in 44 patients (97.8%). Group 2 (28 patients) received SOF/DAC/RBV over 24-weeks; (one patient was lost during follow-ups and one patient discontinued treatment due to hepatic decompensation). SVR-12 was achieved in 25 patients (96.2%). Group 3 (287 patients) received SOF/Ombitasvir/Paritaprevir/Ritonavir/RBV) over 12-weeks. Eight patients were lost during follow-ups, and one patient discontinued treatment due to grade 4 adverse events. SVR-12 was achieved in 276 patients (99.3%). There was no difference between the groups regarding their age, gender distribution, baseline viral load or comorbidities. Adverse events (thrombocytopenia, anemia, hyperbilirubinaemia and prolonged INR) were significantly higher in group 3, while group 1 did not experience any. The three studied retreatment regimens can be used for DAAs treatment-experienced patients considering availability. The SOF/VEL/VOX combination had the least adverse events.

Assessment of circulating levels of microRNA-326, microRNA-424, and microRNA-511 as biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma in Egyptians

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer. Differential expression of microRNAs (miRNAs)-326, miRNA-424, and miRNA-511 has been associated with the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC in different populations. However, limited information is available regarding their expression in Egyptian HCC patients.

AIM

To assess the role of circulating miRNAs-326, miRNA-424, and miRNA-511 in Egyptian HCC patients.

METHODS

This prospective observational study included 70 HCC patients and 25 healthy controls. The circulating levels of these three miRNAs were evaluated by real-time PCR. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to test the diagnostic accuracy of microRNA expression levels.

RESULTS

All miRNAs were differentially expressed in HCC patients; miRNAs326 and miRNA-424 were upregulated, while miRNA-511 was downregulated. Both miRNA-326 and miRNA-424 showed sensitivity and specificity of 97%, 71.4%, and 52%, 60%, respectively, to differentiate HCC from controls. Moreover, miRNA-326 was associated with survival and could differentiate between Child grades (A vs B); miRNA-424 significantly differentiated early vs intermediate stages of HCC; while miRNA-511 was significantly correlated with response to modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST).

CONCLUSION

We conclude that miRNA-326, miRNA-424, and miRNA-511 have diagnostic and prognostic roles in Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus-related HCC and should be considered for better disease management.

Patterns of liver profile disturbance in patients with COVID-19

Fever and cough are the most common clinical symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but complications (such as pneumonia, respiratory distress syndrome, and multiorgan failure) can occur in people with additional comorbidities. COVID-19 may be a new cause of liver disease, as liver profile disturbance is one of the most common findings among patients. The molecular mechanism underlying this phenomenon, however, is still unknown. In this paper, we review the most current research on the patterns of change in liver profile among patients with COVID-19, the possible explanation for these findings, and the relation to pre-existing liver disease in these patients.

Plasma cell-free DNA integrity index and hepatocellular carcinoma treated or not with direct-acting antivirals: A case-control study

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The clinical value of the cell-free DNA (cf-DNA) integrity index as a diagnostic biomarker of hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was investigated and correlated with alpha-fetoprotein (AFP).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This case-control study was conducted on 160 patients with HCV genotype 4-related liver cirrhosis. Group 1 consisted of 80 patients with HCC, including 40 patients naïve to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and 40 patients who received DAAs and achieved sustained virological response. Group 2 comprised 80 patients with cirrhosis without HCC. Plasma cf-DNA integrity index using ALU 115 and ALU 247 sequences was assessed using SYBR Green-based real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The cf-DNA integrity index was calculated as the ratio of Q247/Q115 where Q115 and Q247 are the ALU-qPCR results obtained using ALU 115 and ALU 247, respectively.

RESULTS

Patients with HCC had significantly lower plasma cf-DNA integrity index than those with liver cirrhosis. No significant difference in the cf-DNA integrity index was observed between patients with HCC who received DAAs and those who did not. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed an area under the ROC curve of 0.965 and 0.886 for detecting HCC using the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP, respectively. The combination of the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP improved the sensitivity from 81.6% to 94.7%, positive predictive value from 93.4% to 94.7%, negative predictive value from 84.4% to 94.9%, and accuracy from 88.4% to 94.8%.

CONCLUSION

The cf-DNA integrity index can predict the occurrence of HCV genotype 4-related HCC. No significant difference in the cf-DNA integrity index was observed between patients with HCC who received DAAs and those without previous DAAs. The combination of the cf-DNA integrity index and AFP provides better HCC prediction accuracy.

Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study

We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was reconstructed with covariates based on predictor’s statistical significance and clinically relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded (24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p <0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age ≥ 60 years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05–3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.14–2.19; p = 0.006), hypertension (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22–2.36; p = 0.002), chronic renal insufficiency (OR = 3.15, 95% CI 1.84–5.38; p <0.0001), tachycardia (OR = 1.65, 95% CI 1.22–2.23; p <0.001), hypoxemia (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 4.05–7.98; p <0.0001), GCS <13 (OR 515.2, 95% CI 148.5–1786.9; p <0.0001), the use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulation (OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.22–0.74, p = 0.003) and azithromycin (OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09–0.26; p <0.0001) were independent negative predictors of mortality. In conclusion, age >60 years, comorbidities, tachycardia, hypoxemia, and altered consciousness level are independent predictors of mortality among Egyptian hospitalized patients with COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of anticoagulants and azithromycin is associated with reduced mortality.

Survival and outcomes for co-infection of chronic hepatitis C with and without cirrhosis and COVID-19: A multicenter retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Chronic liver disease, particularly cirrhosis, is associated with worse outcomes in patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

AIM

To assess outcomes of COVID-19 infection among patients with pre-existing hepatitis C with or without liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

This multicenter, retrospective cohort study included all cases of confirmed co-infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and chronic hepatitis C with or without liver cirrhosis who were admitted to six hospitals (Al-Sahel Hospital, Al-Matareya Hospital, Al-Ahrar Hospital, Ahmed Maher Teaching Hospital, Al-Gomhoreya Hospital, and the National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institute) affiliated with the General Organization for Teaching Hospitals and Institutes in Egypt. Patients were recruited from May 1, 2020, to July 31, 2020. Demographic, laboratory, imaging features, and outcomes were collected. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to detect factors affecting mortality.

RESULTS

This retrospective cohort study included 125 patients with chronic hepatitis C and COVID-19 co-infection, of which 64 (51.20%) had liver cirrhosis and 40 (32.00%) died. Fever, cough, dyspnea, and fatigue were the most frequent symptoms in patients with liver cirrhosis. Cough, sore throat, fatigue, myalgia, and diarrhea were significantly more common in patients with liver cirrhosis than in non-cirrhotic patients. There was no difference between patients with and without cirrhosis regarding comorbidities. Fifteen patients (23.40%) with liver cirrhosis presented with hepatic encephalopathy. Patients with liver cirrhosis were more likely than non-cirrhotic patients to have combined ground-glass opacities and consolidations in CT chest scans: 28 (43.75%) vs 4 (6.55%), respectively (P value < 0.001). These patients also were more likely to have severe COVID-19 infection, compared to patients without liver cirrhosis: 29 (45.31%) vs 11 (18.04%), respectively (P value < 0.003). Mortality was higher in patients with liver cirrhosis, compared to those with no cirrhosis: 33 (51.56%) vs 9 (14.75%), respectively (P value < 0.001). All patients in Child-Pugh class A recovered and were discharged. Cirrhotic mortality occurred among decompensated patients only. A multivariate regression analysis revealed the following independent factors affecting mortality: Male gender (OR 7.17, 95%CI: 2.19–23.51; P value = 0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR 4.03, 95%CI: 1.49–10.91; P value = 0.006), and liver cirrhosis (OR 1.103, 95%CI: 1.037–1.282; P value < 0.0001). We found no differences in liver function, COVID-19 disease severity, or outcomes between patients who previously received direct-acting antiviral therapy (and achieved sustained virological response) and patients who did not receive this therapy.

CONCLUSION

Patients with liver cirrhosis are susceptible to higher severity and mortality if infected with COVID-19. Male gender, diabetes mellitus, and liver cirrhosis are independent factors associated with increased mortality risk.

Hepatic and gastrointestinal disturbances in Egyptian patients infected with coronavirus disease 2019: A multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Various liver and gastrointestinal involvements occur in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at variable prevalence. Most studies report mild liver function disturbances correlated with COVID-19 severity, though liver failure is unusual.

AIM

To study liver and gastrointestinal dysfunctions in Egyptian patients with COVID-19 and their relation to disease outcomes.

METHODS

This multicentre cohort study was conducted on 547 Egyptian patients from April 15, 2020 to July 29, 2020. Consecutive polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 cases were included from four quarantine hospitals affiliated to the Egyptian ministry of health. Demographic information, laboratory characteristics, treatments, fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, COVID-19 severity, and outcomes were recorded and compared according to the degree of liver enzyme elevation and the presence of gastrointestinal symptoms. Follow-ups were conducted until discharge or death. Regression analyses were performed to determine the independent factors affecting mortality.

RESULTS

This study included 547 patients, of whom 53 (9.68%) died during hospitalization and 1 was discharged upon his request. Patients' mean age was 45.04 ± 17.61 years, and 21.98% had severe or critical COVID-19. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were available for 430 and 428 patients, respectively. In total, 26% and 32% of patients had elevated ALT and AST, respectively. Significant liver injury with ALT or AST elevation exceeding 3-fold was recorded in 21 (4.91%) and 16 (3.73%) patients, respectively. Male gender, smoking, hypertension, chronic hepatitis C, and lung involvement were associated with elevated AST or ALT. AST was elevated in 50% of patients over 60-years-old. FIB-4 was significantly higher in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), those with more severe COVID-19, and non-survivors. The independent variables affecting outcome were supplementary vitamin C intake (1 g daily capsules) [odds ratio (OR): 0.05, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.008-0.337]; lung consolidation (OR: 4.540, 95%CI: 1.155-17.840); ICU admission (OR: 25.032, 95%CI: 7.110-88.128); and FIB-4 score > 3.25 (OR: 10.393, 95%CI: 2.459-43.925). Among 60 (13.98%) patients with gastrointestinal symptoms, 52 (86.67%) had diarrhoea. Patients with gastrointestinal symptoms were predominantly females with higher body mass index, and 50 (83.40%) patients had non-severe COVID-19.

CONCLUSION

Few Egyptian patients with COVID-19 developed a significant liver injury. The independent variables affecting mortality were supplementary vitamin C intake, lung consolidation, ICU admission, and FIB-4 score.

Schistosoma mansoni infection and the occurrence, characteristics, and survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: an observational study over a decade

Schistosoma mansoni infection (SMI) is suspected to be directly and indirectly involved in hepato-carcinogenesis. This study evaluated the association of a previous SMI with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development, patients, tumor characteristics, treatment outcomes, and survival. This observational study included patients with HCC with and without previous SMI who presented to the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Kasr-Alainy hospital (November 2009 to December 2019). It also included 313 patients with liver cirrhosis without HCC. Clinical and laboratory features of the patients (complete blood count, liver/renal functions , alpha-fetoprotein, and hepatitis B/C status), tumor characteristics (Triphasic CT and/or dynamic MRI), liver stiffness (transient elastography), HCC treatment outcome, and overall survival were studied. This study included 1446 patients with HCC; 688(47.6%) composed group-1, defined by patients having a history of SMI, and 758(52.4%) were in group-2 and without history of SMI. Male sex, smoking, diabetes mellitus, splenomegaly, deteriorated performance status, synthetic liver functions, and platelet count were significantly higher in group-1. The groups did not differ with regard to liver stiffness, tumor characteristics, or the occurrence of post-HCC treatment hepatic decompensation or recurrence. HCC treatment response was better in group-2. Group-1 showed lower sustained virological response to hepatitis C direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) compared with group-2 (60% versus 84.3%, respectively, P = 0.027). Prior SMI was associated with HCC (adjusted odds ratio = 1.589, 95% confidence interval = 1.187-2.127), and it was concluded that it increases the risk of HCC. In addition, it significantly affects the performance status, laboratory characteristics, response to DAAs, and overall survival.

Validation of a machine learning approach using FIB-4 and APRI scores assessed by the metavir scoring system: A cohort study

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

The study aim was to improve and validate the accuracy of the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) scores for use in a potential machine-learning (ML) method that accurately predicts the extent of liver fibrosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective multicenter study included 69,106 patients with chronic hepatitis C planned for antiviral therapy from January 2010-December 2014 with liver biopsy results. FIB-4 and APRI scores were calculated and their performance for predicting significant liver fibrosis (F3-F4) assessed against the Metavir scoring system. ML was used for feature selection and reduction to identify the most relevant attributes (CfsSubseteval/best first) for prediction.

RESULTS

In this study, 57,492 (83.2%) patients were F0-F2, and 11,615 (16.8%) patients were F3-F4. The revalidation of FIB-4 and APRI showed lower accuracy and higher disagreement with the biopsy results, with AUCs of 0.68 and 0.58, respectively. FIB-4 diagnosed fewer (14%) F3-F4 patients, and the high specificity and negative predictive values of FIB-4 and APRI reflected the low prevalence of F3-F4 in the study population. Out of 15 attributes, age (>35 years), AFP (>6.5 ng/ml), and platelet count (<150,000/mm³) were the most relevant risk attributes, and patients with one or more of these risk factors were likely to be F3-F4, with a classification accuracy of ≤ 92% and receiver operating characteristics area of 0.74.

CONCLUSION

FIB-4 and APRI scores were not very accurate and missed diagnosing most of the F3-F4 patients. ML implementation improved medical decisions and minimized the required clinical data to three risk factors.

Machine Learning Prediction Models for Diagnosing Hepatocellular Carcinoma with HCV-related Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Considered as one of the most recurrent types of liver malignancy, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) needs to be assessed in a non-invasive way. The objective of the current study is to develop prediction models for Chronic Hepatitis C (CHC)-related HCC using machine learning techniques.

METHODS

A dataset, for 4423 CHC patients, was investigated to identify the significant parameters for predicting HCC presence. In this study, several machine learning techniques (Classification and regression tree, alternating decision tree, reduce pruning error tree and linear regression algorithm) were used to build HCC classification models for prediction of HCC presence.

RESULTS

Age, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), alkaline phosphate (ALP), albumin, and total bilirubin attributes were statistically found to be associated with HCC presence. Several HCC classification models were constructed using several machine learning algorithms. The proposed HCC classification models provide adequate area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and high accuracy of HCC diagnosis. AUROC ranges between 95.5% and 99%, plus overall accuracy between 93.2% and 95.6%.

CONCLUSION

Models with simplistic factors have the power to predict the existence of HCC with outstanding performance.

Simple predictors of nonresponse to direct-acting antivirals in chronic hepatitis C patients

OBJECTIVES

The introduction of direct acting antivirals (DAAs) has resulted in very high sustained virological response rates (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis-C (CHC). There are still a minority who fails to achieve SVR. This study aims to identify simple factors associated with nonresponse to DAAs using routine pretreatment workup.

METHODS

A retrospective study included 10 655 CHC patients who were candidates for anti-viral therapy. Pretreatment demographics, laboratory results, ultrasonography and FIB-4were obtained.

RESULTS

At post-treatment week 4, 10 495 patients (98.5%) were responders and 160 (1.5%) were non-responders. About 50.6% of non-responders were males and 61.3% were cirrhotic. Non-responders had significantly higher baseline BMI, liver enzymes, AFP and a significantly lower albumin, platelet count by univariate analysis ((P < 0.001). Sex, previous treatment, BMI, liver cirrhosis, AST, Albumin and platelet counts were the independent predictors of non-response. At post-treatment week 12, HCV-PCR results were available only for 7259 patients and 210 (2.9%) were non-responders. 54.8% of non-responders were cirrhotic and 51.4% were males. Non-responders had significantly higher AST, AFP and INR and a significantly lower albumin level, platelet count by univariate analysis (P < 0.05). Sex, previous treatment, AST, Albumin, WBC and platelet counts were the independent predictors of non-response. SVR-4 among treatment naive patients was 98.6% while among treatment experienced was 96.8%. SVR-12 among treatment naive patients was 97.9% while among treatment experienced was 87.9%.Cirrhotics had SVR-4 rate 97.7% and SVR-12 rate 96.21%.

CONCLUSION

Routine pre-treatment work up for HCV G4 patients receiving DAAs can help in prediction of non-response.

Assessment of facility performance during mass treatment of chronic hepatitis C in Egypt: Enablers and obstacles

BACKGROUND

The national committee for control of viral hepatitis (NCCVH) in Egypt, settled by the Ministry of health, treated over one million patients in around 60 centers with chronological changes in drug combinations. This research aims to study the health care facilities and services provided by NCCVH treatment centers in Egypt and explore hinders faced.

METHODS

A cross-sectional operational research study. Multistage random sampling technique was applied for Egyptian governorates. From each stratum one governorate was chosen from which one center was randomly selected. Quality of recorded data for each center in the central server (Data-oriented parameter), newly designed score to assess the overall performance of the centers was retrieved from computer based recording system. A self-administered questionnaire was completed by the centers head.

RESULTS

This study included 24 treatment centers from urban, rural areas, Upper and Lower Egypt. The Upper centers showed the best completeness of follow-up records and the least compliance rates. None of the centers had 100% completeness of follow-up data. Proportion of SVR is minimally less than proportion of patient with known outcome in all treatment centers. A novel indicator standardizing the comparisons of performance of different facilities was introduced: Total number of physicians/total number of SVR patients with completed records. The highest response rate: Monfiya Governorate (Lower Egypt), Aswan (Upper Egypt), Completeness of follow-up records: Kalyoubia (Lower Egypt), Sohag governorate (Upper Egypt). The average administrative score was 64%.

CONCLUSION

Challenges of NCCVH program: overcrowdings, resistant sociocultural background among rural patients, limited accessibility for internal migrants and incompleteness of data entry are system lacking points. Strengths include, clear patient pathway, well-established database online application, well-trained physicians and treatment availability.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score: A new simple score for diagnosis of HCC

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

The risk of hepatocarcinogenesis depends on background liver factors, of which fibrosis is a major determinant. Serum markers and scores are of increasing importance in non-invasive diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis. Our aim was to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a non-invasive fibrosis score calculated using routine patient data.

PATIENTS AND MTHODS

Our retrospective study included 1,291 hepatitis C related-HCC Egyptian patients (Group 1) recruited from the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University in the period between February 2009 and June 2016 and 1072 chronic hepatitis C-naïve patients (Group 2) with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) and cirrhosis (F4). King score, Fibro Q score, Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), AST to ALT ratio (AAR), LOK score, Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), Fibro-α and Biotechnology Research Center (BRC) scores were calculated for all patients. Regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for significant scores with the best cut-off for predicting HCC. A regression equation was used to calculate predicted probabilities of HCC using the following variables; age, gender, haemoglobin, international normalised ratio (INR), albumin and alpha fetoprotein. The appropriate score cut-off points yielding optimal sensitivity and specificity were determined by ROC curve analysis.

RESULTS

There was a highly significant difference between the two groups for all calculated scores (P = 0.0001). Our new score, the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score (Logit probability of HCC =  - 2.524 + 0.152*age - 0.121*Hb - 0.696*INR - 1.059*Alb + 0.022*AFP + 0.976*Sex. Male = 1, Female = 0), with a cut-off of 0.559 was superior to other scores for predicting HCC, having a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80.6%.

CONCLUSION

The HMC-CU score is a promising, easily calculated, accurate, cost-effective score for HCC prediction in chronic HCV patients with advanced liver fibrosis.

Predictors of recurrence and survival of hepatocellular carcinoma: A prospective study including transient elastography and cancer stem cell markers

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS

To investigate whether the measurement of liver stiffness (LSM) using fibroscan and the serum Cancer Stem Cells (CSC): Ep-CAM and cytokeratin-19, could predict the recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and their impact on clinical outcome and overall survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a prospective study, including 179 HCV-related HCC patients. All patients were treated following the BCLC guidelines. All HCC patients had transient elastography, measurements of Ep-CAM and cytokeratin-19 before and six months post-treatment. We looked for predictors of recurrence and performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier estimates.

RESULTS

TACE was the most common procedure (77.1%), followed by microwave ablation (15.6%). Complete ablation was achieved in 97 patients; 55 of them developed HCC recurrence. After treatment, LSM increased significantly with a significant reduction in CSCs levels in complete and partial response groups. The median time to observe any recurrence was 14 months. LSM increased significantly post-treatment in patients with recurrence versus no recurrence. Higher levels of CSCs were recorded at baseline and post-treatment in patients with recurrence but without statistical significance. We used univariate analysis to predict the time of recurrence by determining baseline CK-19 and platelet levels as the key factors, while the multivariate analysis determined platelet count as a single factor. The univariate analysis for prediction of overall survival included several factors, LSM and EpCAM (baseline and post-ablation) among them, while multivariate analysis included factors such as Child score B and incomplete ablation.

CONCLUSION

Dynamic changes were observed in LSM and CSCs levels in response to HCC treatment and tumour recurrence. Child score and complete ablation are factors that significantly affect survival.

Liver stiffness measurement changes following hepatocellular carcinoma treatment with percutaneous microwave ablation or transarterial chemoembolization: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Liver stiffness increases after the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Transient elastography for liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using fibroscan is a simple noninvasive method of proven efficacy. This study aims to assess the changes in LSM following HCC treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study included 150 patients with hepatitis C virus related HCC attending the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Kasr Al-Ainy Hospital between March 2014 and October 2015 who underwent either transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or microwave ablation (MWA). Baseline LSM was carried out 3 and 6 months after treatment. The response rate was calculated according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria; overall survival and LSM changes were then compared between the two procedures.

RESULTS

MWA showed higher rates of complete ablation (77.4%) than did TACE (31.7%) (P=0.004). Increase in LSM 3 and 6 months after treatment was statistically significant in the TACE group (P<0.001) but not in the MWA group (P=0.4). Patients who showed complete ablation had statistically significant lower baseline LSM than those with incomplete ablation, and their 6 months increase in LSM was also significantly lower. Logistic regression revealed that with each unit increase in baseline stiffness, 3% reduction in the odds of complete ablation is expected, and this did not change after controlling for the type of treatment. Child-Pugh class, number, and size of HCCs were our independent prognostic factors by Cox proportional analysis.

CONCLUSION

The increase in LSM is significant after TACE than after MWA. Moreover, lower pre-ablation LSM is a predictor of complete ablation.

Tumor behavior of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C treatment by direct-acting antivirals: comparative analysis with non-direct-acting antivirals-treated patients

INTRODUCTION

Scarce reports have commented on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) behavior after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs).

AIM

To analyze differences in tumor behavior between patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced HCC and were either treated or not using DAAs.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This case-control study includes patients with HCV-related HCC who received generic DAAs (group I) and all non-DAA treated patients with HCC who presented to our clinic during the same period (group II). Patient and tumor characteristics, treatment types and outcome were compared between the two groups.

RESULTS

Group I included 89 patients and group II included 207 patients. No significant difference was detected between groups regarding HCC number or size. Group I showed a more infiltrative HCC pattern, whereas group II had more circumscribed and delineated lesions. The incidence of portal vein thrombosis and significant lymphadenopathy was significantly higher in group I (P=0.03 and 0.03, respectively). Serum levels of α-fetoprotein were significantly higher in group I (P=0.02). These factors significantly affected the response to HCC management (P=0.03). Incidence of complete responses were 47.2 and 49.8% for groups I and II, respectively, whereas incomplete responses were 12.4 and 25.1%, respectively. Supportive treatment was applied to 40.4% in group I and 25.1% in group II.

CONCLUSION

HCC behavior was more aggressive in DAA-treated patients regarding portal vein thrombosis, malignant lymphadenopathy, and HCC imaging characteristics, which affected the chance of ablation and the treatment response.

Evaluation of liver steatosis, measured by controlled attenuation parameter, in patients with hepatitis C-induced advanced liver fibrosis and hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Steatosis is a documented feature of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). There is an association between steatosis decrease and fibrosis progression. The association between steatosis and advanced fibrosis versus hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development has not been precisely evaluated. The controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) was applied as an immediate and efficient process to detect and quantify hepatic steatosis with adequate accuracy.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to assess the difference in liver steatosis between patients with hepatitis C virus-related advanced hepatic fibrosis versus HCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study included 130 patients with HCC, attending the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Cairo University, and 54 patients with CHC between October 2015 and June 2016. Clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded. Liver stiffness and CAP were obtained by using the FibroScan 502, touch.

RESULTS

All included patients had genotype 4. The mean CAP value was significantly lower in HCC (209.5±57.1 dB/m) versus CHC (259.9±54.9 dB/m). Receiver operating characteristic curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.75 for the differentiation between groups. At a cutoff value of 237 dB/m, sensitivity was 72.3%, specificity was 70.7%, positive likelihood ratio was 2.5, and negative likelihood ratio was 0.4 in the differentiation between CHC versus HCC. Logistic regression analysis revealed an odds ratio of 6.4 for the diagnosis of HCC with CAP of less than 237 dB/m. Multivariate analysis, controlling for age, sex, BMI, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels, revealed a significantly increased odds for HCC diagnosis (odds ratio: 4.3, P=0.006).

CONCLUSION

The progression of CHC is associated with a decrease in steatosis, particularly toward advanced fibrosis and HCC. Steatosis reduction less than 237 dB/m is likely to be associated with HCC.

A new prognostic score can predict survival after hepatocellular carcinoma treatment in a cohort of 1302 Egyptian hepatocellular carcinoma patients

INTRODUCTION

Survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) differs between regions and countries according to the different underlying factors and the degree of standard of care that enables early diagnosis and management. Our aim was to identify the most potent predictive factors of survival in Egyptian HCC patients receiving curative or palliative treatments.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective study included 1302 HCC patients attending the HCC multidisciplinary clinic, Cairo University, between February 2009 and December 2016. Clinical, laboratory, tumor characteristics, and treatment data were collected. Prognostic scores for each of the treatment categories, curative or palliative, were developed using routine laboratory tests.

RESULTS

Patients were predominantly men, mean age 57.79±7.56 years. All cases developed HCC in addition to cirrhosis, mainly hepatitis C virus-related (88.2%). Most of the patients were Child-Pugh A (56.8%) or B (34.4%) and had single lesions. Transarterial chemoembolization was the most common line of treatment (42.08%). The overall median survival was 18.3 months from the date of diagnosis. Cigarette smoking, Child-Pugh score, performance status, number and size of the focal lesion, α-fetoprotein, and application of a specific treatment, particularly curative treatment, were the significant independent prognostic factors for survival. We found no impact of diabetes mellitus or hypertension on survival. Multidisciplinary HCC clinic predictive scores of survival after palliative and curative treatments were developed including independent prognostic factors, age, and portal vein status.

CONCLUSION

A new Egyptian prognostic score of tumor and patients factors can predict the survival of patients with HCC after palliative and curative treatments.

Interleukin-18 and its gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) influence chronic hepatitis C progression

INTRODUCTION

Interleukin-18 (IL-18) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that is induced by hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Inter-individual variations of IL-18 gene expression may alter HCV-associated liver injury. Variable single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been detected within IL-18 gene sequence. Quantitative assessment of IL-18 plasma level and detection of genotype frequencies of 2 functional polymorphisms of its gene (-607 C/A and -137 G/C) were done to assess their impact on the severity of chronic hepatitis C (CHC).

METHODOLOGY

Cases group (I) comprised 110 treatment naïve CHC Egyptian patients (78 Males and 32 Females, mean age = 40.7 ± 11.8 years) who underwent routine laboratory investigations. Assessment of plasma level of IL-18 was done by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), detection of IL-18 gene polymorphisms at positions -607 C/A and -137 G/C by polymerase chain reaction sequence specific polymorphism (PCR-SSP) analysis and Liver biopsy with METAVIR scoring were done. The control group (II) comprised 90 healthy participants.

RESULTS

Plasma levels of IL-18 were significantly higher in cases than the control group. We found a statistically highly significant (p < 0.001) positive correlation between IL-18 plasma level and both METAVIR necro-inflammatory grade and fibrosis stage. The A/A allele at -607 position was significantly more frequent (p < 0.05) in patients with F ≤ 1.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher IL-18 plasma levels are found in CHC patients and positively correlate with the severity of liver disease. The presence of A/A allele at -607 position of IL-18 gene promoter is associated with milder liver disease.

De-novo versus recurrent hepatocellular carcinoma following direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C virus

INTRODUCTION

A recent appearance of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) led to a surge in hepatitis C virus (HCV) management. Nowadays, a large proportion of treated patients have cirrhosis with a retained possibility to develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) even after complete cure. We aimed to study tumoral differences between patients who developed HCC after DAAs as either a recurrence or de-novo HCC.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 89 patients who presented to our HCC multidisciplinary clinic with HCC lesions following DAA therapy. A total of 45 patients had complete response to HCC according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors before DAAs intake. Another 44 patients developed de-novo lesions after DAA treatment. Both groups were compared regarding their baseline characteristics, tumor criteria, response to DAAs as well response to HCC treatment.

RESULTS

Both groups showed no significant difference regarding their baseline characteristics (age, sex, Child-Pugh score, and performance status) or response to DAAs (P=0.5). No significant difference was present between groups according to number, site, and size of lesions. However, time elapsed between the end of DAAs therapy and first diagnosis of HCC was significantly longer in de-novo group (15.22±16.39 months) versus recurrence group (6.76±5.1 months) (P=0.008). In addition, response to ablation was significantly better in de-novo lesions compared with recurrent HCC (P=0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

Although de-novo HCC lesions significantly developed later than recurrent lesions in DAAs-treated patients, their response rates were significantly better. No differences were detected between both groups in their response to DAAs and their tumoral characteristics.

Transarterial Chemoembolization Combined with Either Radiofrequency or Microwave Ablation in Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Introduction:

Local ablative therapy and trans arterial chemoembolization (TACE) are applied to ablate non resectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Combination of both techniques has proven to be more effective. We aimed to study combined ablation techniques and assess survival benefit comparing TACE with radiofrequency (RFA) versus TACE with microwave (MWA) techniques.

Methods:

We retrospectively studied 22 patients who were ablated using TACE-RFA and 45 with TACE-MWA. All were classified as Child A-B and lesions did not exceed 5 cm in diameter. TACE was followed within two weeks by either RFA or MWA. We recorded total and partial ablation rates and complication rates. Survival analysis was then performed.

Results:

TACE-MWA showed a higher tendency to provide complete response rates than TACE-RFA (P 0.06). This was particularly evident with lesions sized 3-5 cm (P 0.01). Rates of complications showed no significant difference between the groups. Overall median survival was 27 months. The overall actuarial probability of survival was 80.1% at 1 year, 55% at 2 years, and 36.3% at 3 years. The recurrence free survival at 1 year, 2years and 3 years for the TACE-RFA group was 70%, 42% and 14% respectively and for TACE-MWA group 81.2%, 65.1% and 65.1% without any significant difference (P 0.1). In relation to the size of focal lesions, no statistically significant difference in the survival rates was detected between the groups.

Conclusion:

TACE-MWA led to better response rates than TACE-RFA with tumors 3-5 cm, with no difference in survival rates.

Interferon-γ and Interleukin-10 Gene Polymorphisms are not Predictors of Chronic Hepatitis C (Genotype-4) Disease Progression

Immunoregulatory cytokines have an influence on hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection outcome. This study aimed to determine whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in IFN- γ and IL-10 genes are associated with susceptibility and/or are markers of prognosis regarding chronic hepatitis C outcomes. IFN γ (+874T/A) and IL-10 (-1082G/A) genotypes were determined in 75 HCV genotype 4 patients with different disease severities (chronic hepatitis, n=25, liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on top of liver cirrhosis, n=50) and 25 healthy participants using allele-specific polymerase chain reaction. No statistical differences in allele or genotype distributions of IFN γ and IL-10 genes were detected between patients and controls or between patientgroups. No significant difference in the frequency of IL-10 SNP at position -1082 or IFN-γ at position +874T/A was found between chronic HCV genotype 4 and with progression of disease severity in liver cirrhosis or HCC. In conclusion; interferon-γ and interleukin-10 gene polymorphisms are not predictors of disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C (Genotype-4).

Microwave ablation versus transarterial chemoembolization in large hepatocellular carcinoma: prospective analysis

OBJECTIVE

Limited therapies are offered for large hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). It carries dismal prognosis and efforts tried changing its management from a palliative to a curative mode. Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is a palliative procedure that may have survival benefit if compared to non-management of large lesions. Microwave ablation (MWA) has emerged as a relatively new technique with promise of larger and faster ablation. We aim to evaluate the efficacy and safety of percutaneous MWA versus TACE for large tumors (5-7 cm) and to assess their effects on local tumor progression and survival.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Sixty-four patients with large lesions are managed in our multidisciplinary HCC clinic and were divided into two groups treated either by MWA or TACE. Complete response rate, local recurrence, de novo lesions, and overall survival analysis are compared between both procedures.

RESULTS

Both groups were comparable as regards the demographic and ultrasonographic features. MWA showed higher rates of complete ablation (75%) with fewer sessions, lower incidence of tumor recurrence (p = 0.02), development of de novo lesions (p = 0.03), occurrence of post-treatment ascites (p = 0.003), and higher survival rates (p = 0.04). The mean survival of the microwave group was 21.7 months with actuarial probability of survival at 12 and 18 months 78.2% and 68.4%, respectively. The mean survival of the TACE group was 13.7 months with actuarial probability of survival at 12 and 18 months being 52.4% and 28.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

MWA showed better results than TACE in the management of large HCC lesions.