Comparing Eight Prognostic Scores in Predicting Mortality of Patients with Acute-On-Chronic Liver Failure Who Were Admitted to an ICU: A Single-Center Experience

Limited data is available on long-term outcome predictions for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in an intensive care unit (ICU) setting. Assessing the reliability and accuracy of several mortality prediction models for these patients is helpful. Two hundred forty-nine consecutive patients with ACLF and admittance to the liver ICU in a single center in northern Taiwan between December 2012 and March 2015 were enrolled in the study and were tracked until February 2017. Ninety-one patients had chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis. Clinical features and laboratory data were collected at or within 24 h of the first ICU admission course. Eight commonly used clinical scores in chronic liver disease were calculated. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) III and chronic liver failure consortium (CLIF-C) ACLF scores were significantly superior to other models in predicting overall mortality as determined by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (area under the ROC curve (AUROC): 0.817). Subgroup analysis of patients with chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis displayed similar results. CLIF-C organ function (OF), CLIF-C ACLF, and APACHE III scores were statistically superior to the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0-III) and the simplified acute physiology (SAP) III scores in predicting 28-day mortality. In conclusion, for 28-day and overall mortality prediction of patients with ACLF admitted to the ICU, APACHE III, CLIF-OF, and CLIF-C ACLF scores might outperform other models. Further prospective study is warranted.

Integrated model for end-stage liver disease maybe superior to some other model for end-stage liver disease-based systems in addition to Child-Turcotte-Pugh and albumin-bilirubin scores in patients with hepatitis B virus-related liver cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis

OBJECTIVES

For mortality prediction of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) in patients with cirrhosis, no direct comparisons have been made among the eight models, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, integrated MELD (iMELD) score, MELD to sodium (MESO) index, modification of the MELD scoring system (Refit MELD), Refit MELD-Na and Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) score.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Between January 2005 and July 2017, 314 patients who met the criteria for liver cirrhosis with the first episode of SBP were enrolled in this retrospective study. Clinical and laboratory data were obtained at diagnosis. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or death.

RESULTS

Patients were predominantly middle-aged male. Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection accounted for the majority of the etiologies (41.7%) with 33.6% of the patients received antivirals. The in-hospital mortality rate was 39.8%. The cumulative 3-month and 6-month mortality rates were 51.6 and 60.2%, respectively. For patients with HBV related, not hepatitis C virus or alcohol related, liver cirrhosis, iMELD had the highest area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortality.

CONCLUSION

For patients with HBV-related liver cirrhosis and SBP, iMELD had the highest AUC among these eight models and was significantly superior to MELD, MESO, and Refit MELD in addition to CTP and ALBI scores in predicting 3-month and 6-month mortalities.

Interferon Is Superior to Direct Acting Antiviral Therapy in Tertiary Prevention of Early Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The elimination of chronic hepatitis C infection (CHC) by pegylated interferon plus ribavirin (Peg-IFN/RBV) decreases hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence rate. However, the tertiary prevention of HCC recurrence by direct acting antiviral agents (DAA) remains controversial. This study aims to compare the tertiary prevention effect between DAA and Peg-IFN/RBV in CHC-HCC patients. Three hundred and one patients who received curative HCC treatment were retrospectively recruited. The recurrence incidence rate (IR) was compared among patients either receiving Peg-IFN/RBV or DAA regimen or untreated by three timeframes (I: from HCC treatment to antiviral therapy; II: during antiviral therapy; III: after antiviral therapy). The prevention effect between Peg-IFN/RBV and DAA were compared in frame II and III after propensity score matching (PSM) with age, tumor staging, HCC treatment modality, and cirrhotic status. Before PSM, the recurrence IRs in three arms were comparable in frame I, while being lower in the Peg-IFN/RBV and DAA arm compared to the untreated arm in frame II. In frame III, the tertiary prevention effect lasted in the Peg-IFN/RBV arm (p < 0.001), but diminished in the DAA arm (p = 0.135) compared to untreated patients. After PSM, the HCC recurrence IR was higher in the DAA arm than the Peg-IFN/RBV arm in frame II (2724 vs. 666 per 10⁴ person-years, log-rank p = 0.042) and III (5259 vs. 3278 per 10⁴ person-years, log-rank p = 0.048). Preantiviral ALBI grade therapy is the only predictor for postantiviral therapy HCC recurrence. In conclusion, the tertiary prevention effect of HCC recurrence was not durable in DAA-treated patients, but persisted in Peg-IFN/RBV treatment patients.

Comparing CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLFlactate, and CLIF-C ACLF-D Prognostic Scores in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure Patients by a Single-Center ICU Experience

Patients with liver cirrhosis have a higher risk of developing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Poor prognosis with a high rate of short-term mortality leads to limited opportunities for further liver transplantation. Thus, precise prognostic evaluation of patients with ACLF is necessary before transplant surgery. In this study, a total of one hundred and thirty-five patients with ACLF admitted to the hepato-gastroenterologic intensive care unit (ICU) for intensive monitoring and treatment at Chang-Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH, Linkou, Taiwan) were screened from November 2012 to April 2015 and tracked until April 2017. Three new prognostic scores of ACLF, including CLIF-C ACLF (Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure score), CLIF-C ACLF-D (CLIF-C ACLF Development score), and CLLF-C ACLF_lactate (lactate-adjusted CLIF-C ACLF score) were compared. The primary outcome considered was overall mortality. Mortality predictions at 28, 90, 180, and 365 days were also calculated. By area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) analysis, the CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF-D scores were superior to CLIF-C ACLF_lactate scores in predicting 28-day mortality. The CLIF-C ACLF-D score had the highest AUROC in predicting overall mortality as well as at 90, 180, and 365 days. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF-D scores are significant predictors of outcome in critical patients with liver cirrhosis and ACLF. The CLIF-C ACLF-D score may have a superior predictive power for the prediction of 3-month, 6-month, and one-year mortality.

Fibrosis index predicts variceal bleeding and reduces need for nonselective beta-blocker in compensated cirrhosis with initial small esophageal varices without red-color sign

Background

Various non-invasive markers predicting hepatic fibrosis are poor predictors of esophageal variceal bleeding (EVB). Elastography performs well but resource-limited. Controversy for small EV prevention also exists. We aim to investigate if a non-invasive marker could predict subsequent EVB within 1 and 2 years in patients with compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC), initial small EV without red-color sign (RCS), without use of non-selective beta-blockers (NSBB) and endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL). This marker would also be tested if it could help reduce use of NSBB, thereby avoiding potential side effects and saving medical costs.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, 6,803 CLC patients fulfilling the inclusion-exclusion criteria were enrolled between 2001 and 2018, and were followed-up for 1 year, 2 years. The primary outcomes were subsequent EVB within 1 and 2 years of enrollment. Another 281 CLC patients with NSBB use were compared for additional outcome analysis.

Results

In total, 539 patients and 710 patients experienced EVB within 1 year and 2 years, respectively. The fibrosis index (FI) with cut-off value of 3.95 showed a negative predictive value (NPV) of 94.3% and an area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 62.95% for predicting subsequent EVB within 1 year. The EVB and mortality of patients with FI <3.95 and not taking NSBB were significantly lower than those of the other 3 groups. Similar results were demonstrated within 2 years.

Conclusions

In CLC patients with initial small EV and no RCS, low FI scores showed a high NPV and moderate AUROC in predicting subsequent EVB and mortalities, signifying clinically non-significant portal hypertension. Patients with low FI scores and not taking NSBB had significantly lowest EVB and mortality. The medical cost savings for cutting NSBB in these patients would be estimated at least $3 million per year in the U.S. Further randomized control trial study needed to validate this screening tool.

Real-World Experience of the One-Year Efficacy of Rifaximin Add-On to Lactulose Is Superior to Lactulose Alone in Patients with Cirrhosis Complicated with Recurrent Hepatic Encephalopathy in Taiwan

Background: Hepatic encephalopathy (HE), a neuropsychiatric complication of decompensated cirrhosis, is associated with high mortality and high risk of recurrence. Rifaximin add-on to lactulose for 3 to 6 months is recommended for the prevention of recurrent episodes of HE after the second episode. However, whether the combination for more than 6 months is superior to lactulose alone in the maintenance of HE remission is less evident. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the one-year efficacy of rifaximin add-on to lactulose for the maintenance of HE remission in Taiwan. Methods: We conducted a real-world single-center retrospective cohort study to compare the long-term efficacy of rifaximin add-on to lactulose (group R + L) versus lactulose alone (group L, control group). Furthermore, the treatment efficacy before and after rifaximin add-on to lactulose was also analyzed. The primary endpoint of our study was time to first HE recurrence (Conn score ≥ 2). All patients were followed up every three months until death, and censored at one year if still alive. Results and Conclusions: 12 patients were enrolled in group R + L. Another 31 patients were stratified into group L. Sex, comorbidity, ammonia level, and ascites grade were matched while age, HE grade, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score were adjusted in the multivariable logistic regression model. Compared with group L, significant improvement in the maintenance of HE remission and decreased episodes and days of HE-related hospitalizations were demonstrated in group R + L. The serum ammonia levels were significantly lower at the 3rd and 6th month in group 1. Concerning changes before and after rifaximin add-on in group R + L, mini-mental status examination (MMSE), episodes of hospitalization, and variceal bleeding also improved at 6 and 12 months. Days of hospitalization, serum ammonia levels also improved at 6th month. Except for concern over price, no patients discontinued rifaximin due to adverse events or complications. The above results provide evidence for the one-year use of rifaximin add-on to lactulose in reducing HE recurrence and HE-related hospitalization for patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

The incidence and predictors of post transarterial chemoembolization variceal bleeding in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the standard of care for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Variceal bleeding is a life-threatening complication and may alter the initial treatment plan. This study was aimed to elucidate the risk factors for variceal bleeding in HCC patients receiving TACE treatment.

METHODS

From 2005 to 2016, a total of 1233 treatment-naive HCC patients receiving first time TACE treatment in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou medical center were recruited. Pre-TACE status including baseline characteristics, prior history of ascites, and parameters for liver function evaluation were analyzed. All the variables were compared between patients with and without variceal bleeding.

RESULTS

Among the 1233 patients, the median age was 63.7 (range 25.8-91.5) years old, and 73.5% were male. Variceal bleeding events were documented in 19 patients (1.5%) within 3 months post TACE treatment. Patients with younger age, cirrhosis, pre-treatment ascites and advanced fibrosis status (higher MELD score, CTP score, ALBI grade, FIB-4 and APRI score) were more likely to encounter post-treatment variceal bleeding. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed existence of ascites (adjusted HR: 4.859 (1.947-12.124), p = 0.001), and higher FIB-4 score (adjusted HR: 4.481 (1.796-11.179), p = 0.001) were the independent predictive factors for variceal bleeding. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding are more likely to encounter tumor progression (42.1% vs. 20.3%, p = 0.039) and mortality owing to GI bleeding (15.8% vs. 3%, p = 0.032).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of post-TACE variceal bleeding was 1.5%. Patients with post-TACE variceal bleeding have poorer TACE treatment response. The pre-treatment ascites and FIB-4 score are the independent predictors for post-TACE variceal bleeding.

Dynamic Change of Albumin-Bilirubin Score Is Good Predictive Parameter for Prognosis in Chronic Hepatitis C-hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Receiving Transarterial Chemoembolization

Background and Aims: The Albumin-Bilirubin (ALBI) grade is a good index for liver function evaluation and is also associated with the outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving TACE. However, the correlation between the dynamic change to the ALBI score and clinical outcome is seldom discussed. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the application of ALBI grade and dynamic change of ALBI grade (delta ALBI grade) after first TACE for prognosis prediction in HCC patients with chronic hepatitis C infection. Method: From January 2005 to December 2015, newly diagnosed naive chronic hepatitis C-hepatocellular carcinoma (CHC-HCC) patients who were treated with TACE as the initial treatment at the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Medical Center, were retrospectively recruited. The pre-treatment host factors, tumor status and noninvasive markers were collected. The Cox regression model was used to identify independent predictors of overall survival and tumor recurrence. Results: Among 613 treatment-naive CHC-HCC patients, 430 patients died after repeated TACE during a median follow-up of 26.9 months. Complete remission after repeated TACE occurred in 46.2% patients, and 208 patients (33.9%) had tumor recurrence, with a median recurrence-free interval of 8.5 months. In Cox regression analysis, ALBI grade II/III (aHR: 1.088, p = 0.035) and increased delta ALBI grade (aHR: 1.456, p = 0.029) were independent predictive factors for tumor recurrence. Furthermore, ALBI grade II/III (aHR: 1.451, p = 0.005) and increased delta ALBI grade during treatment (aHR: 1.436, p = 0.006) were predictive factors for mortality, while achieving complete response after repeated TACE (aHR: 0.373, p < 0.001) and anti-viral therapy (aHR: 0.580, p = 0.002) were protective factors for mortality. Conclusion: Both ALBI and delta ALBI grade are independent parameters to predict survival and tumor recurrence of CHC-HCC patients receiving TACE treatment.

Timely eradication of HCV viremia by PegIFN/RBV is crucial in prevention of post RFA recurrence in CHC-HCC patients

BACKGROUND

Secondary prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) who achieve sustained virologic response (SVR) with interferon-based therapy has been proved effective. However, tertiary prevention with PegIFN/RBV therapy of HCC recurrence seems limited effect in CHC-HCC patients post curative therapies. This study aims to investigate the timing and impact of PegIFN/RBV treatment on prevention of HCC recurrence in patients after RFA treatment.

METHODS

From 2013 to 2016, a total of 137 CHC-HCC patients from a 508 patient based cohort receiving complete RFA treatment in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, Linkou Medical Center were retrospectively recruited. Pre-RFA patient demographics were analyzed by cox regression analysis for prediction on tumor recurrence. Statistics analysis was performed with SPSS V.20 (IBM, USA).

RESULTS

The mean age of the 137 patients were 69.6 year-old and 71.5% of patients were cirrhotic. After propensity score matching, one hundred and two patients were enrolled into the analysis. Fifty-one patients (50%) received PegIFN/RBV therapy and twenty-seven patients (52.9%) achieved SVR. Patients who could achieve SVR had lower tumor recurrence rate than non-SVR and untreated groups (29.6% vs. 66.7% vs. 49.0%, P = 0.030). The effect is more prominent in those achieve SVR prior to compared with after RFA despite not reach statistically significant (26.1% vs. 50.0%, P = 0.334).

CONCLUSION

Timely treatment with SVR achievement has the lowest tumor recurrence rate in CHC-HCC patients. Secondary prevention might be even more important than tertiary prevention in CHC patients, especially regarding prevention of post RFA HCC recurrence.

Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD

Classification of cirrhosis based on clinical stages is rapid and based on five stages at present. Two other relevant events, hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), can be considered in a clinical perspective but no study has implemented a seven-stage classification and confirmed its value before. In addition, long-term validation of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in large cohorts of patients with cirrhosis and comparison with clinical findings are insufficient. Therefore, we performed a study to address these items. From the Chang-Gung Research Database (CGRD), 20,782 patients with cirrhosis were enrolled for an historical survival study. The MELD score, the five-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of esophageal varices (EV), EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis) and a novel seven-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of EV, EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis, HE, SBP) were compared with their Cox models by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The addition of HE and SBP to the seven-stage model had a 5% better prediction result than the five-stage model did in the survival ROC analysis. The result showed that the seven clinical stages are associated with an increased risk for mortality. However, the predicted performances of the seven-stage model and MELD system are likely equivalent. In conclusion, the study (i) proved that clinical staging of cirrhosis based on seven items/stages had higher prognostic value than the five-stage model and (ii) confirmed the validity of the MELD criteria vs. clinical assessment.

Bacteremia (Sepsis), Hepatorenal Syndrome, and Serum Creatinine Levels Rather than Types or Microbial Patterns Predicted the Short-Term Survival of Cirrhotic Patients Complicated with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis

(1) Background: Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a major and severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites. Over the years, advance in antibiotic treatment has led to changes in microbial patterns in some regions, including the emergence of extended-spectrum beta-lactamases resistant (ESBL)-producing bacteria and an increase in Gram-positive bacteria (GPC). In addition, three SBP types (classic SBP, culture-negative neutrophilic ascites (CNNA), and monomicrobial non-neutrocytic bacterascites (MNB)), may also have different prognoses. Therefore, the study aimed to investigate the microbial pattern and the predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with SBP. (2) Methods: Patients discharged with a diagnosis of the first episode of SBP between January 2006 and July 2017 were enrolled. Patients' clinical, demographic, hematological, and biochemical data were obtained at diagnosis, and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based scores were calculated accordingly. Patients were followed up until February 2018 or until death. (3) Results: A total of 327 patients were analyzed. The prevalence of classic SBP was nearly equivalent to CNNA. As for the microbial pattern, Gram-negative bacillus (GNB) remained more prevalent than GPC (75 vs. 25%), with E. coli being the most common bacterial species, followed by K. Pneumoniae and then Staphylococcus. The percentage of ESBL strain in culture-positive patients was 10.9%. By univariable and multivariable logistic regression survival analysis, there was no significant difference in predicting short-term mortality among the three SBP types, neither between GNB vs. GPC nor between ESBL- and non-ESBL-producing bacteria. Only bacteremia (sepsis), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and serum creatinine (Cr) were independent predictors of in-hospital and 3-month mortality, whereas HRS and Cr were independent predictors of 6-month mortality. (4) Conclusions: SBP types, Gram stain result, and ESBL strain did not affect survival. Only bacteremia (sepsis), HRS, and serum Cr independently predicted the short-term mortality in patients with SBP.