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De Simone B, Abu-Zidan FM, Kasongo L, Moore EE, Podda M, Sartelli M, Isik A, Bala M, Coimbra R, Balogh ZJ, Rasa K, Marchegiani F, Schena CA, DèAngelis N, Di Martino M, Ansaloni L, Coccolini F, Gumbs AA, Biffl WL, Pikoulis E, Pararas N, Chouillard E, ChoCO Collaborative group, Catena F. COVID-19 infection is a significant risk factor for death in patients presenting with acute cholecystitis: a secondary analysis of the ChoCO-W cohort study. World J Emerg Surg 2025; 20:16. [PMID: 40001181 PMCID: PMC11853863 DOI: 10.1186/s13017-025-00591-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Collaborators] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2024] [Accepted: 02/12/2025] [Indexed: 02/27/2025] [Imported: 05/04/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, there has been a surge in cases of acute cholecystitis. The ChoCO-W global prospective study reported a higher incidence of gangrenous cholecystitis and adverse outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Through this secondary analysis of the ChoCO-W study data, we aim to identify significant risk factors for mortality in patients with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the role of COVID-19 infection in patient outcomes and treatment efficacy." METHODS The ChoCO-W global prospective study reported data from 2546 patients collected at 218 centers from 42 countries admitted with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic, from October 1, 2020, to October 31, 2021. Sixty-four of them died. Nonparametric statistical univariate analysis was performed to compare patients who died and patients who survived. Significant factors were then entered into a logistic regression model to define factors predicting mortality. RESULTS The significant independent factors that predicted death in the logistic regression model with were COVID-19 infection (p < 0.001), postoperative complications (p < 0.001), and type (open/laparoscopic) of surgical intervention (p = 0.003). The odds of death increased 5 times with the COVID-19 infection, 6 times in the presence of complications, and it was reduced by 86% with adequate source control. Survivors predominantly underwent urgent laparoscopic cholecystectomy (52.3% vs. 23.4%). CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 was an independent risk factor for death in patients with acute cholecystitis. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy has emerged as the cornerstone of treatment for hemodynamically stable patients.
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Collaborators
Salomone Di Saverio, Ferdinando Agresta, Carlos Augusto Gomes, Susan J Moug, Aitor Landaluce-Olavarria, Begoña Estraviz-Mateos, Ana Uriguen-Etxeberria, Alessio Giordano, Alfonso Palmieri Luna, Luz Adriana Hernández Amín, Adriana María Palmieri Hernández, Amanda Shabana, Zakaria Andee Dzulkarnaen, Muhammad Asyraf Othman, Mohamad Ikhwan Sani, Andrea Balla, Rosa Scaramuzzo, Pasquale Lepiane, Andrea Bottari, Fabio Staderini, Fabio Cianchi, Andrea Cavallaro, Antonio Zanghì, Alessandro Cappellani, Roberto Campagnacci, Angela Maurizi, Mario Martinotti, Annamaria Ruggieri, Asri Che Jusoh, Karim Abdul Rahman, Anis Suraya M Zulkifli, Barbara Petronio, Belén Matías-García, Ana Quiroga-Valcárcel, Fernando Mendoza-Moreno, Boyko Atanasov, Fabio Cesare Campanile, Ilaria Vecchioni, Luca Cardinali, Grazia Travaglini, Elisa Sebastiani, Serge Chooklin, Serhii Chuklin, Pasquale Cianci, Enrico Restini, Sabino Capuzzolo, Giuseppe Currò, Rosalinda Filippo, Michele Rispoli, Daniel Aparicio-Sánchez, Virginia Durán Muñóz-Cruzado, Sandra Dios Barbeito, Samir Delibegovic, Amar Kesetovic, Diego Sasia, Felice Borghi, Giorgio Giraudo, Diego Visconti, Emanuele Doria, Mauro Santarelli, Davide Luppi, Stefano Bonilauri, Ugo Grossi, Giacomo Zanus, Alberto Sartori, Giacomo Piatto, Maurizio De Luca, Domenico Vita, Luigi Conti, Patrizio Capelli, Gaetano Maria Cattaneo, Athanasios Marinis, Styliani-Aikaterini Vederaki, Mehmet Bayrak, Yasemin Altıntas, Mustafa Yener Uzunoglu, Iskender Eren Demirbas, Yuksel Altinel, Serhat Meric, Yunus Emre Aktimur, Derya Salim Uymaz, Nail Omarov, Ibrahim Azamat, Eftychios Lostoridis, Eleni-Aikaterini Nagorni, Antonio Pujante, Gabriele Anania, Cristina Bombardini, Francesco Bagolini, Emre Gonullu, Baris Mantoglu, Recayi Capoglu, Stefano Cappato, Elena Muzio, Elif Colak, Suleyman Polat, Zehra Alan Koylu, Fatih Altintoprak, Zülfü Bayhan, Enrico Andolfi, Sulce Rezart, Jae Il Kim, Sung Won Jung, Yong Chan Shin, Octavian Enciu, Elena Adelina Toma, Fabio Medas, Gian Luigi Canu, Federico Cappellacci, Fabrizio D'Acapito, Giorgio Ercolani, Leonardo Solaini, Francesco Roscio, Federico Clerici, Roberta Gelmini, Francesco Serra, Elena Giulia Rossi, Francesco Fleres, Guglielmo Clarizia, Alessandro Spolini, Francesco Ferrara, Gabriela Nita, Jlenia Sarnari, Mahir Gachabayov, Abakar Abdullaev, Gaetano Poillucci, Gian Marco Palini, Luigi Veneroni, Gianluca Garulli, Micaela Piccoli, Gianmaria Casoni Pattacini, Francesca Pecchini, Giulio Argenio, Mariano Fortunato Armellino, Giuseppe Brisinda, Silvia Tedesco, Pietro Fransvea, Giuseppe Ietto, Caterina Franchi, Giulio Carcano, Gennaro Martines, Giuseppe Trigiante, Giulia Negro, Gustavo Machain Vega, Agustín Rodríguez González, Leonardo Ojeda, Gaetano Piccolo, Andrea Bondurri, Anna Maffioli, Claudio Guerci, Boo Han Sin, Zamri Zuhdi, Azlanudin Azman, Hussam Mousa, Shadi Al Bahri, Goran Augustin, Ivan Romic, Trpimir Moric, Ioannis Nikolopoulos, Jacopo Andreuccetti, Giusto Pignata, Rossella D'Alessio, Jakub Kenig, Urszula Skorus, Gustavo Pereira Fraga, Elcio Shiyoiti Hirano, Jackson Vinícius de Lima Bertuol, Eray Kurnaz, Mohammad Sohail Asghar, Ameer Afzal, Ali Akbar, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis, Konstantinos Lasithiotakis, Emmanuel Chrysos, Koray Das, Nazmi Özer, Ahmet Seker, Mohamed Ibrahim, Hytham K S Hamid, Ahmed Babiker, Konstantinos Bouliaris, George Koukoulis, Chrysoula-Christina Kolla, Andrea Lucchi, Laura Agostinelli, Antonio Taddei, Laura Fortuna, Carlotta Agostini, Leo Licari, Simona Viola, Cosimo Callari, Letizia Laface, Emmanuele Abate, Massimiliano Casati, Alessandro Anastasi, Giuseppe Canonico, Linda Gabellini, Lorenzo Tosi, Anna Guariniello, Federico Zanzi, Lovenish Bains, Larysa Sydorchuk, Oksana Iftoda, Andrii Sydorchuk, Michele Malerba, Federico Costanzo, Raffaele Galleano, Michela Monteleone, Andrea Costanzi, Carlo Riva, Maciej Walędziak, Andrzej Kwiatkowski, Łukasz Czyżykowski, Piotr Major, Marcin Strzałka, Maciej Matyja, Michal Natkaniec, Maria Rosaria Valenti, Maria Domenica Pia Di Vita, Maria Sotiropoulou, Stylianos Kapiris, Damien Massalou, Massimiliano Veroux, Alessio Volpicelli, Rossella Gioco, Matteo Uccelli, Marta Bonaldi, Stefano Olmi, Matteo Nardi, Giada Livadoti, Cristian Mesina, Theodor Viorel Dumitrescu, Mihai Calin Ciorbagiu, Michele Ammendola, Giorgio Ammerata, Roberto Romano, Mihail Slavchev, Evangelos P Misiakos, Dimitrios Papaconstantinou, Mohamed Elbahnasawy, Sherief Abdel-Elsalam, Daniel M Felsenreich, Julia Jedamzik, Nikolaos V Michalopoulos, Theodoros A Sidiropoulos, Maria Papadoliopoulou, Nicola Cillara, Antonello Deserra, Alessandro Cannavera, Ionuţ Negoi, Dimitrios Schizas, Athanasios Syllaios, Ilias Vagios, Stavros Gourgiotis, Nick Dai, Rekha Gurung, Marcus Norrey, Antonio Pesce, Carlo Vittorio Feo, Nicolo' Fabbri, Nikolaos Machairas, Panagiotis Dorovinis, Myrto D Keramida, Francesk Mulita, Georgios Ioannis Verras, Michail Vailas, Omer Yalkin, Nidal Iflazoglu, Direnc Yigit, Oussama Baraket, Karim Ayed, Mohamed Hedi Ghalloussi, Parmenion Patias, Georgios Ntokos, Razrim Rahim, Asaf Kedar, Robert G Sawyer, Anna Trinh, Kelsey Miller, Ruslan Sydorchuk, Ruslan Knut, Oleksandr Plehutsa, Rumeysa Kevser Liman, Zeynep Ozkan, Saleh Abdel Kader, Sanjay Gupta, Monika Gureh, Sara Saeidi, Mohsen Aliakbarian, Amin Dalili, Tomohisa Shoko, Mitsuaki Kojima, Raira Nakamoto, Semra Demirli Atici, Gizem Kilinc Tuncer, Tayfun Kaya, Spiros G Delis, Stefano Rossi, Biagio Picardi, Simone Rossi Del Monte, Tania Triantafyllou, Dimitrios Theodorou, Tadeja Pintar, Jure Salobir, Dimitrios K Manatakis, Nikolaos Tasis, Vasileios Acheimastos, Orestis Ioannidis, Lydia Loutzidou, Savvas Symeonidis, Tiago Correia de Sá, Mónica Rocha, Tommaso Guagni, Desiré Pantalone, Gherardo Maltinti, Vladimir Khokha, Wafaa Abdel-Elsalam, Basma Ghoneim, José Antonio López-Ruiz, Yasin Kara, Syaza Zainudin, Firdaus Hayati, Nornazirah Azizan, Victoria Tan Phooi Khei, Rebecca Choy Xin Yi, Harivinthan Sellappan, Zaza Demetrashvili, Nika Lekiashvili, Ana Tvaladze, Caterina Froiio, Daniele Bernardi, Luigi Bonavina, Angeles Gil-Olarte, Sebastiano Grassia, Estela Romero-Vargas, Francesco Bianco, Agron Dogjani, George Gendrikson, Costanza Martino, Vanni Agnoletti, Dimitrios Damaskos, Andrew Kirkpatrick, Mikhail Kurtenkov, Felipe Couto Gomes, Adolfo Pisanu, Oreste Nardello, Fabrizio Gambarini, Vanni Agnoletti, Antonio Biondi, Marco Vacante, Giulia Griggio, Roberta Tutino, Marco Massani, Giovanni Bisetto, Savino Occhionorelli, Dario Andreotti, Domenico Lacavalla, Gianluca Garulli,
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Kerr JA, Patton GC, Cini KI, Abate YH, Abbas N, Abd Al Magied AHA, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdulkader RS, Abdullahi A, Abeywickrama HM, Abie A, Abiodun O, Abohashem S, Abtahi D, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abukhadijah HJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Adams LC, Adane MM, Addo IY, Adedokun KA, Adegoke NA, Adesola RO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adiga U, Adnani QES, Afify AY, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Aghamiri S, Agostinis Sobrinho C, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahlstrom AJ, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad N, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akkaif MA, Akrami AE, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Ta'ani Z, Al Thaher Y, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Al-amer RM, Alansari A, Al-Ashwal FY, Albashtawy M, Alemayehu BA, Algammal AM, Alhabib KF, Alhuwail D, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali MD, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali W, Alif SM, Alimohamadi Y, Al-Jabi SW, Aljofan M, Aljunid SM, Alkhatib A, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Alomari MA, Alqahtani SA, Alqarni AA, Alrawashdeh A, Alrimawi I, Alrousan SM, Alshahrani NZ, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Alvi FJ, Alvis-Guzman N, et alKerr JA, Patton GC, Cini KI, Abate YH, Abbas N, Abd Al Magied AHA, Abd ElHafeez S, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdollahi A, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdulkader RS, Abdullahi A, Abeywickrama HM, Abie A, Abiodun O, Abohashem S, Abtahi D, Abualruz H, Abubakar B, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abukhadijah HJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Aburuz S, Abu-Zaid A, Adams LC, Adane MM, Addo IY, Adedokun KA, Adegoke NA, Adesola RO, Adetunji JB, Adeyeoluwa TE, Adiga U, Adnani QES, Afify AY, Afolabi AA, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agampodi SB, Aghamiri S, Agostinis Sobrinho C, Agyemang-Duah W, Ahinkorah BO, Ahlstrom AJ, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad F, Ahmad MM, Ahmad N, Ahmad S, Ahmed A, Ahmed H, Ahmed LA, Ahmed MS, Ahmed MS, Ahmed SA, Ajami M, Akkaif MA, Akrami AE, Al Hamad H, Al Hasan SM, Al Ta'ani Z, Al Thaher Y, Alalwan TA, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Al-amer RM, Alansari A, Al-Ashwal FY, Albashtawy M, Alemayehu BA, Algammal AM, Alhabib KF, Alhuwail D, Ali A, Ali EA, Ali MD, Ali MU, Ali R, Ali W, Alif SM, Alimohamadi Y, Al-Jabi SW, Aljofan M, Aljunid SM, Alkhatib A, Almahmeed W, Al-Marwani S, Alomari MA, Alqahtani SA, Alqarni AA, Alrawashdeh A, Alrimawi I, Alrousan SM, Alshahrani NZ, Altaany Z, Altaf A, Alvi FJ, Alvis-Guzman N, Al-Wardat M, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Aly S, Alzoubi KH, Aman Mohammadi M, Amera TG, Amiri S, Amu H, Amugsi DA, Amusa GA, Ananda RA, Ancuceanu R, Ansari MT, Ansari S, Anuoluwa BS, Anuoluwa IA, Anvari S, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arab JP, Arabloo J, Arafat M, Aravkin AY, Areda D, Aregawi BB, Arifin H, Armocida B, Ärnlöv J, Arooj M, Arora A, Artamonov AA, Artanti KD, Arumugam A, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Asiamah-Asare BKY, Astell-Burt T, Athari SS, Atorkey P, Atreya A, Aumoldaeva ZM, Awoke MA, Awotidebe AW, Aychiluhm SB, Azimi A, Aziz SA, Aziz S, Azzam AY, Azzolino D, Babashahi M, Babu GR, Badran AA, Bagheri N, Bai R, Baig AA, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Baltatu OC, Bam K, Banik R, Barati S, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Barquera S, Barrow A, Barua L, Bastan MM, Basu S, Bayat R, Bayih MT, Bayleyegn NS, Beeraka NM, Behera P, Bejarano Ramirez DF, Bello UM, Belo L, Bennett DA, Bergami M, Berhe K, Berihun AA, Bhadoria AS, Bhala N, Bharadwaj R, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bhattacharjee P, Bhatti GK, Bhatti JS, Bilgin C, Bisignano C, Biswas B, Bizzozero Peroni B, Bjertness E, Bjørge T, Boloor A, Boppana SH, Bosoka SA, Bouaoud S, Boyko EJ, Braithwaite D, Brazo-Sayavera J, Brenner H, Bryazka D, Bugiardini R, Bui LP, Bustanji Y, Butt NS, Butt ZA, Çakmak Barsbay M, Calina D, Cámera LA, Campos LA, Cao S, Capodici A, Carletti C, Carvalho AF, Carvalho M, Cattafesta M, Cattaruzza MS, Cegolon L, Cembranel F, Cerin E, Cernigliaro A, Chadwick J, Chakraborty C, Chandrasekar EK, Chang JC, Chattu VK, Chaudhary AA, Chaurasia A, Chen AT, Chen H, Chew NWS, Chi G, Chimoriya R, Ching PR, Chitheer A, Choi DW, Chong B, Chong CL, Chopra H, Chopra S, Chou HI, Choudhari SG, Chung SC, Chung S, Chutiyami M, Cogen RM, Columbus A, Conrad N, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, da Silva AG, Dadras O, Dai X, Dalakoti M, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, D'Anna L, Danpanichkul P, Darcho SD, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Dash NR, Davletov K, Dehghan A, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Derbew Molla M, Dergaa I, Desale AT, Devanbu VGC, Devegowda D, Dhali A, Dhungel B, Diaz D, Dinu M, Do TC, do Prado CB, Dodangeh M, Doegah PT, Dohare S, Dokova KG, Doku PN, Dolatkhah N, D'Oria M, Dorostkar F, Doshi OP, Doshi RP, Dowou RK, Du M, Dumith SC, Dumuid D, Duncan BB, Dutta S, Ebrahimi A, Edvardsson K, Eighaei Sedeh A, Ekholuenetale M, El Arab RA, El Bayoumy IF, Eladl MA, El-Ashker S, Elbarazi I, Elgendy IY, Elhadi M, El-Metwally AA, Elmonem MA, Elnaem MH, Elsheikh R, Eltaha C, Emeto TI, Eslami M, Fabin N, Fadavian H, Fagbamigbe AF, Fakhradiyev IR, Faraji SN, Farinha CSES, Faris MEM, Faris PS, Farjoud Kouhanjani M, Farooque U, Farrokhpour H, Fasusi 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IA, Ofakunrin AOD, Oguta JO, Oh IH, Okati-Aliabad H, Okeke SR, Okekunle AP, Okonji OC, Olagunju AT, Olalusi OV, Olasehinde TA, Oliveira AB, Oliveira GMM, Oluwafemi YD, Omar HA, Omar Bali A, Omer NA, Ong SK, Ordak M, Ortiz A, Osborne A, Osman WMS, Otoiu A, Oumer A, Ouyahia A, Owolabi MO, Owusu IA, Oyebola K, Oyelade T, P A MP, Padron-Monedero A, Padubidri JR, Palicz T, Panda SK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandey A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Pant S, Pardhan S, Parekh U, Parija PP, Parikh RR, Park EC, Passera R, Patel J, Patoulias D, Paudel S, Peprah P, Pereira M, Perico N, Perna S, Petcu IR, Petermann-Rocha FE, Pham HN, Pham TT, Pirouzpanah S, Polibin RV, Popovic DS, Potani I, Pourghazi F, Pourshams A, Pradhan J, Pradhan PMS, Prasad M, Prashant A, Prates EJS, Puvvula J, Qattea I, Qiao Y, Radhakrishnan V, Radojˇić MR, Raggi C, Rahman FM, Rahman MM, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahman MA, Rahmanian M, Rahmanian V, Rahmati M, Rai RK, Raimondo I, Raj JP, Rajput P, Ramadan MM, Ramasamy C, Ramasamy SK, Ramazanu S, Rana K, Ranabhat CL, Rao M, Rao SJ, Rashedi S, Rashidi MM, Rasouli-Saravani A, Rathish D, Rauniyar SK, Rautalin I, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Redwan EMMM, Rege S, Rehman AU, Reis-Mendes A, Remuzzi G, Rezaei N, Rezaeian M, Rhee TG, Rocha-Gomes JR, Rodrigues da Silva TP, Rodriguez JAB, Roever L, Rohloff P, Romadlon DS, Rony MKK, Roshandel G, Rout HS, Roy N, Rwegerera GM, Saad AMA, Saber-Ayad MM, Sabzmakan L, Sadarangani KP, Saddik BA, Sadeghi M, Saeed U, Sagoe D, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Sahebkar A, Sahoo SS, Sajadi SM, Sajid MR, Salami AA, Salaroli LB, Saleem S, Saleh MA, Salem MR, Salihu D, Salimi S, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sarkar T, Sarmadi M, Sarode GS, Sarode SC, Sassano M, Saulam J, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saya GK, Schinckus C, Schmidt MI, Schuermans A, Selvaraj S, Sendekie AK, Sengupta P, Senol YC, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Sethi Y, Seylani A, Shafie M, Shah S, Shahid S, Shahwan MJ, Shamim MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsutdinova A, Shanawaz M, Shannawaz M, Sharath M, Sharifan A, Sharma M, Sharma U, Sharma V, Sheida F, Shenoy RR, Shetty PH, Shiferaw D, Shin MJ, Shirani Lapari M, Shiri R, Shittu A, Shool S, Shorofi SA, Shrestha G, Shrestha R, Shuval K, Si Y, Sibuyi NRS, Siddig EE, Siervo M, Silva DAS, Silva LMLR, Singh A, Singh B, Singh H, Singh JA, Singh K, Singh L, Singh M, Singh PS, Singh S, Skryabina AA, Smith AE, Smith G, Soliman SSM, Soraneh S, Spartalis M, Srichawla BS, Stanikzai MH, Starodubova AV, Straif K, Stubbs P, Subramaniyan V, Suleiman Odidi MO, Sulkowski A, Sultan Meo A, Sun Z, Sunny S, Sunuwar DR, Swain CK, Szarpak L, T Y SS, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabatabaei SM, Tabatabaei Malazy O, Tabatabaeizadeh SA, Tabatabai S, Tabche C, Tabish M, Taiba J, Tampa M, Tamuzi JL, Tan KK, Tanwar M, Tariq S, Tat NY, Temsah MH, Temsah RMH, Teramoto M, Terefa DR, Tewari J, Thangaraju P, Thapar R, Thavamani A, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas J, Tiruneh SA, Tiruye TY, Titova MV, Tiwari K, Tomo S, Tonelli M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Trabelsi K, Tran NH, Tran TH, Tran Minh Duc N, Trico D, Truyen TTTT, Tsegay GM, Tumurkhuu M, Tye SC, Udoakang AJ, Ullah A, Ullah S, Ullah S, Umair M, Umar L, Umar UM, Unim B, Upadhya D, Upadhyay E, Usman JS, Ustunsoz D, Vaezghasemi M, Vaithinathan AG, Van den Eynde J, Varghese J, Vasankari TJ, Vaziri S, Vellingiri B, Venketasubramanian N, Verma M, Verras GI, Villalobos-Daniel VE, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vukovic R, Wahiduzzaman M, Wang C, Wang S, Wang X, Wang Y, Weerakoon KG, Wei FL, Wicaksana AL, Wickramasinghe DP, Wickramasinghe ND, Willeit P, Wojewodzic MW, Xia Q, Xiao G, Xie W, Xu S, Xu X, Yahya G, Yamagishi K, Yano Y, Yao H, Yarahmadi A, Yaribeygi H, Ye P, Yesuf SA, Yin D, Yon DK, Yonemoto N, Yu C, Yuan CW, Yuce D, Yunusa I, Zamagni G, Zastrozhin M, Zeariya MGM, Zhang CJP, Zhang H, Zhang J, Zhang L, Zhang X, Zhang Z, Zhao H, Zheng DX, Zhong A, Zhong CC, Zhou J, Zhu B, Zhumagaliuly A, Zielińska M, Zitoun OA, Zoghi G, Zou Z, Zyoud SH, Gakidou E, Sawyer SM, Azzopardi PS. Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet 2025; 405:785-812. [PMID: 40049185 PMCID: PMC11920006 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(25)00397-6] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/04/2024] [Revised: 11/13/2024] [Accepted: 02/24/2025] [Indexed: 03/10/2025] [Imported: 05/04/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions. METHODS Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15-24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990-2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2021, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, and that of obesity alone tripled. By 2021, 93·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 89·6-96·6) individuals aged 5-14 years and 80·6 million (78·2-83·3) aged 15-24 years had obesity. At the super-region level in 2021, the prevalence of overweight and of obesity was highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and the greatest increase from 1990 to 2021 was seen in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Taiwan [province of China], Maldives, and China). By 2021, for females in both age groups, many countries in Australasia (eg, Australia) and in high-income North America (eg, Canada) had already transitioned to obesity predominance, as had males and females in a number of countries in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) and Oceania (eg, Cook Islands and American Samoa). From 2022 to 2050, global increases in overweight (not obesity) prevalence are forecasted to stabilise, yet the increase in the absolute proportion of the global population with obesity is forecasted to be greater than between 1990 and 2021, with substantial increases forecast between 2022 and 2030, which continue between 2031 and 2050. By 2050, super-region obesity prevalence is forecasted to remain highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and forecasted increases in obesity are still expected to be largest across southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Timor-Leste and North Korea), but also in south Asia (eg, Nepal and Bangladesh). Compared with those aged 15-24 years, in most super-regions (except Latin America and the Caribbean and the high-income super-region) a greater proportion of those aged 5-14 years are forecasted to have obesity than overweight by 2050. Globally, 15·6% (12·7-17·2) of those aged 5-14 years are forecasted to have obesity by 2050 (186 million [141-221]), compared with 14·2% (11·4-15·7) of those aged 15-24 years (175 million [136-203]). We forecasted that by 2050, there will be more young males (aged 5-14 years) living with obesity (16·5% [13·3-18·3]) than overweight (12·9% [12·2-13·6]); while for females (aged 5-24 years) and older males (aged 15-24 years), overweight will remain more prevalent than obesity. At a regional level, the following populations are forecast to have transitioned to obesity (vs overweight) predominance before 2041-50: children and adolescents (males and females aged 5-24 years) in north Africa and the Middle East and Tropical Latin America; males aged 5-14 years in east Asia, central and southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America; females aged 5-14 years in Australasia; females aged 15-24 years in Australasia, high-income North America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa; and males aged 15-24 years in high-income North America. INTERPRETATION Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents. Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
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Nagy R, Ocskay K, Sipos Z, Szentesi A, Vincze Á, Czakó L, Izbéki F, Shirinskaya NV, Poluektov VL, Zolotov AN, Zhu Y, Xia L, He W, Sutton R, Szatmary P, Mukherjee R, Burridge IS, Wauchope E, Francisco E, Aparicio D, Pinto B, Gomes A, Nunes V, Tantau VM, Sagau ED, Tantau AI, Suceveanu AI, Tocia C, Dumitru A, Pando E, Alberti P, Cirera A, Molero X, Lee HS, Jung MK, Kim EJ, Lee S, Rebollo MLR, Nistal RB, Santervas SI, Lesko D, Soltes M, Radonak J, Zatorski H, Małecka-Panas E, Fabisiak A, Yaroslav MS, Mykhailo VM, Olekcandr AT, Barauskas G, Simanaitis V, Ignatavicius P, Jinga M, Balaban VD, Patoni C, Gong L, Song K, Li Y, Gonçalves TC, Freitas M, Macedo V, Vornhuelz M, Klauss S, Beyer G, Koksal AS, Tozlu M, Eminler AT, Monclús NT, Comas EP, Oballe JAR, Nawacki Ł, Głuszek S, Rama-Fernández A, Galego M, de la Iglesia D, Aykut UE, Duman DG, Aslan R, Gherbon A, Deng L, Huang W, Xia Q, Poropat G, Radovan A, Vranić L, Ricci C, Ingaldi C, Casadei R, Negoi I, Ciubotaru C, Iordache FM, Constantinescu G, Sandru V, Altintas E, Balci HR, Constantino J, Aveiro D, Pereira J, Gunay S, Misirlioglu Sucan S, et alNagy R, Ocskay K, Sipos Z, Szentesi A, Vincze Á, Czakó L, Izbéki F, Shirinskaya NV, Poluektov VL, Zolotov AN, Zhu Y, Xia L, He W, Sutton R, Szatmary P, Mukherjee R, Burridge IS, Wauchope E, Francisco E, Aparicio D, Pinto B, Gomes A, Nunes V, Tantau VM, Sagau ED, Tantau AI, Suceveanu AI, Tocia C, Dumitru A, Pando E, Alberti P, Cirera A, Molero X, Lee HS, Jung MK, Kim EJ, Lee S, Rebollo MLR, Nistal RB, Santervas SI, Lesko D, Soltes M, Radonak J, Zatorski H, Małecka-Panas E, Fabisiak A, Yaroslav MS, Mykhailo VM, Olekcandr AT, Barauskas G, Simanaitis V, Ignatavicius P, Jinga M, Balaban VD, Patoni C, Gong L, Song K, Li Y, Gonçalves TC, Freitas M, Macedo V, Vornhuelz M, Klauss S, Beyer G, Koksal AS, Tozlu M, Eminler AT, Monclús NT, Comas EP, Oballe JAR, Nawacki Ł, Głuszek S, Rama-Fernández A, Galego M, de la Iglesia D, Aykut UE, Duman DG, Aslan R, Gherbon A, Deng L, Huang W, Xia Q, Poropat G, Radovan A, Vranić L, Ricci C, Ingaldi C, Casadei R, Negoi I, Ciubotaru C, Iordache FM, Constantinescu G, Sandru V, Altintas E, Balci HR, Constantino J, Aveiro D, Pereira J, Gunay S, Misirlioglu Sucan S, Dronov O, Kovalska I, Bush N, Rana SS, Chooklin S, Chuklin S, Saizu IA, Gheorghe C, Göltl P, Hirth M, Mateescu RB, Papuc G, Minkov GA, Enchev ET, Mastrangelo L, Jovine E, Chen W, Zhu Q, Gąsiorowska A, Fabisiak N, Bezmarevic M, Litvin A, Mottes MC, Choi EK, Bánovčin P, Nosáková L, Kovacheva-Slavova MD, Kchaou A, Tlili A, Marino MV, Kusnierz K, Mickevicius A, Hollenbach M, Molcan P, Ioannidis O, Tokarev MV, Ince AT, Semenenko IA, Galeev S, Ramírez-Maldonado E, Sallinen V, Pencik P, Bajor J, Sarlós P, Hágendorn R, Gódi S, Szabó I, Czimmer J, Pár G, Illés A, Faluhelyi N, Kanizsai P, Nagy T, Mikó A, Németh B, Hamvas J, Bod B, Varga M, Török I, Novák J, Patai Á, Sümegi J, Góg C, Papp M, Erőss B, Váncsa S, Teutsch B, Márta K, Hegyi PJ, Tornai T, Lázár B, Hussein T, Tarján D, Lipp M, Kovács B, Urbán O, Fürst E, Tari E, Kocsis I, Maurovich-Horvát P, Tihanyi B, Eperjesi O, Kormos Z, Deák PÁ, Párniczky A, Hegyi P. Discharge protocol in acute pancreatitis: an international survey and cohort analysis. Sci Rep 2023; 13:22109. [PMID: 38092809 PMCID: PMC10719286 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-48480-z] [Show More Authors] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 11/27/2023] [Indexed: 12/17/2023] [Imported: 09/21/2024] Open
Abstract
There are several overlapping clinical practice guidelines in acute pancreatitis (AP), however, none of them contains suggestions on patient discharge. The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group (HPSG) has recently developed a laboratory data and symptom-based discharge protocol which needs to be validated. (1) A survey was conducted involving all members of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) to understand the characteristics of international discharge protocols. (2) We investigated the safety and effectiveness of the HPSG-discharge protocol. According to our international survey, 87.5% (49/56) of the centres had no discharge protocol. Patients discharged based on protocols have a significantly shorter median length of hospitalization (LOH) (7 (5;10) days vs. 8 (5;12) days) p < 0.001), and a lower rate of readmission due to recurrent AP episodes (p = 0.005). There was no difference in median discharge CRP level among the international cohorts (p = 0.586). HPSG-protocol resulted in the shortest LOH (6 (5;9) days) and highest median CRP (35.40 (13.78; 68.40) mg/l). Safety was confirmed by the low rate of readmittance (n = 35; 5%). Discharge protocol is necessary in AP. The discharge protocol used in this study is the first clinically proven protocol. Developing and testifying further protocols are needed to better standardize patients' care.
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