Risk Factors and Prediction Model for Non-curative Resection of Early Gastric Cancer With Endoscopic Resection and the Evaluation

Background and Study Aim: EGC, also known as Early Gastric Cancer is known to lack the lymph node metastasis and confined along the mucosa, which is treated through an endoscopic resection procedure that includes ESD (Endoscopic Submucosal dissection) and EMR (Endoscopic Mucosal Resection). However, some cases underwent residual disease, recurrence, or additional gastrectomy because of non-curative resection. The following research aims to delineate the threat factors causing the non-curative resection as well as develop a predictive model. Patient and Methods: Effort was taken to collect all the records about the health history of pathologically diagnosed EGC who experienced endoscopic treatment in the Department of Endoscopy, the Capital Medical University, and Beijing Friendship Hospital from January 2012 to January 2020. Patients were grouped into two categories primarily; a curative resection group and finally a non-curative resection group based on the outcomes of the postoperative pathological and immunohistochemical examination results. The statistical methods used included single factor analysis, a multivariate logistic regression analysis and a chi-square test. A nomogram for the prediction of non-curative resection was constructed, which included information on age, gender, resection method, postoperative pathology, tumor size, ulcer, treatment, and infiltration depth. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration were performed to present the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. Results: Of 443 patients with 478 lesions who had undergone ESD or EMR for EGCs, 127 were identified as being treated non-curative resection. Older patients (>60 years), a large tumor size (>30 mm), submucosal lesion, piecemeal resection, EMR for treatment and undifferentiated tumor histology were associated with non-curative resection group. Our risk nomogram showed good discriminated performance in internal validation (bootstrap-corrected area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.881; P < 0.001). Conclusions: A validated prediction model was developed to identify people who were subject to undergoing a non-curative resection for ESD. The predictive model that we formulated is essential in providing reliable information to guide the decision-making process on the treatment for EGC before undertaking an endoscopic resection.

Serum Uric Acid Is a Mediator of the Association Between Obesity and Incident Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Obesity has been demonstrated to show a consistent link with the increased possibility of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Since both serum uric acid (SUA) and obesity are essential components of metabolic syndrome (MetS), it is uncertain whether the incidence of NAFLD results from serum uric acid, obesity, or other potential factors based on previous studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study enrolled 16,839 participants with no history of alcohol consumption and no fatty liver disease in 2010. All participants completed a survey which included health and lifestyle questionnaires, and underwent physical examination, ultrasonography, and laboratory examinations of blood samples. After the four-year follow up, 5,104 (30.31%) participants were diagnosed with NAFLD. The associations between SUA, BMI or obesity, and incident NAFLD were assessed by multivariate linear regression, logistic regression analysis, and mediation analysis, respectively.

RESULTS

By adjusting demographic and serum characteristics, linear correlation coefficients between obesity and SUA were 20.26 [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 15.74, 24.77), 13.31 (95% CI: 6.63, 19.99) and 22.21 (95% CI: 16.41, 28.02) in the total population, and in the female and male groups, respectively. The odds ratios were 2.49 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.87) in the total population, 5.71 (95% CI: 2.25, 14.45) in the female group and 1.99 (95% CI: 1.15, 3.45) in the male group for the correlation between obesity and incident NAFLD. The mediation analysis showed that SUA contributed to 10.03%, 0.58%, and 12.54% of obesity-related NAFLD development in the total population, females and males, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings showed mediation linkages of both obesity and SUA with the incident NAFLD. The role of SUA as a mediator constitutes clinical significance that should be recognized and considered.

Clinical outcome of non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection for early gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Early gastric cancer (EGC) is defined as cancer cells confined to the mucosal or submucosal layer, irrespective of size or presence of lymph node metastasis. The recent EGC endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) guidelines (2021 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society (JGES) guidelines, 2nd edition) revised the concept from "endoscopic curative/non-curative resection" (NCR) to "endoscopic curability (eCura)". Under this, eCuraA and eCuraB signify curative resections (CRs), while eCuraC (including eCuraC-1 and eCura-C2) indicate NCRs. This study retrospectively analyzes clinical and pathological data from EGC patients who underwent endoscopic resection, assessing the long-term clinical outcomes in a substantial cohort after undergoing NCR.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed clinical and pathological data from 443 EGC patients, encompassing 478 lesions, who received endoscopic treatment. The long-term clinical outcomes of patients who underwent NCR were statistically evaluated. Characteristics of the NCR group were compared with those of the surgical group, employing single- and multi-factor logistic regression analyses to identify risk factors that necessitate further surgical intervention. Prognostically, the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-Rank test determined the impact of risk factors on recurrence-free survival post-surgery in NCR patients. Differences were assessed using a method incorporating statistically significant differences in the multi-factor Cox regression analysis, evaluating the hazard ratio (HR) for disease recurrence following NCR.

RESULTS

In this study, 443 EGC cases were pathologically diagnosed, comprising a total of 478 lesions. Of these, 127 cases underwent non-curative endoscopic resection, resulting in a NCR rate of 24.4%. Long-term follow-up was achieved for 117 (92.12%) patients. The metastasis/recurrence rate at 6 months stood at 23.1%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified lesion size ≥2.0 and <3 cm [P=0.02, HR =0.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.02-0.67], presence of ulceration (P=0.03, HR =5.48, 95% CI: 1.23-24.33), lymphatic invasion (P=0.05, HR =17.51, 95% CI: 1.07-286.23), positive vertical margins (P=0.09, HR =3.77, 95% CI: 0.81-17.53), and flat macroscopic morphology (P=0.048, HR =4.8, 95% CI: 1.01-22.73) as independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival post non-curative endoscopic resection in EGC patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The recurrence/metastasis rate in patients who underwent NCR is notably higher compared to the control group. Significant prognostic risk factors include tumor size ≥2.0 and <3 cm, positive vertical margins, lymphatic invasion, and flat type (one of pathological gross classification). Patients in the eCuraC-2 category of NCR should consider further surgical intervention. The necessity for additional surgical intervention in these patients warrants further investigation.

External validation of the BEST-J score and a new risk prediction model for ESD delayed bleeding in patients with early gastric cancer

BACKGROUND

Delayed bleeding is an important adverse event after gastric endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). We aimed to externally validate the Bleeding after ESD Trend from Japan (BEST-J) score and subsequently develop a risk prediction model for bleeding in Chinese patients with early gastric cancer (EGC) after ESD.

METHODS

The clinical data of patients who underwent ESD for EGC in Beijing Friendship Hospital from June 2013 to December 2019 were collected retrospectively. The BEST-J score was evaluated according to the clinical data. Through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of the clinical data, the factors affecting delayed bleeding were identified, and a new risk prediction model for bleeding was established. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive value of the two prediction models.

RESULTS

A total of 444 patients with EGC undergoing ESD were included, of whom 27 patients had delayed bleeding (6.1%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that a history of smoking (P = 0.029), tumor size > 20 mm (P = 0.022), intraoperative use of hemoclips (P = 0.025), resection of multiple tumors (P = 0.027), and prolongation of activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) (P = 0.020) were independent influencing factors for delayed bleeding. ROC curve analysis showed that the areas under the curves (AUCs) were different between the BEST-J score and the newly built prediction model (0.624 vs. 0.749, P = 0.012).

CONCLUSIONS

The BEST-J score has moderately good discrimination for Chinese patients with EGC. However, for patients with EGC without severe comorbidities, the new risk prediction model may predict delayed bleeding better than the BEST-J score.

Systolic Blood Pressure Mediates Body Mass Index and Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Background/Aims: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is one of the most common chronic liver diseases. Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and body mass index (BMI) are associated with NAFLD. We aimed to evaluate the mediating effect of SBP in the association between BMI and NAFLD.

METHODS

A total of 21 072 participants were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression and linear regression models were used to describe the association between BMI, SBP, and NAFLD. The impact of SBP on the association between BMI and NAFLD was determined through mediation analysis.

RESULTS

BMI was positively associated with incident NAFLD overall (odds ratio (OR) = 1.171, 95% CI (1.153-1.189)) and in the female (OR = 1.189, 95% CI (1.157-1.222)) and male groups (OR = 1.162, 95% CI (1.141-1.184)) (P < .001). SBP also showed positive effects in the general, female, and male groups (P < .001). The effect of BMI on SBP also indicated similar positive results in the general (β = 0.913, 95% CI (0.799-1.026)), female (β = 0.956, 95% CI (0.760-1.151)), and male (β = 0.867, 95% CI (0.727-1.006)) groups (P < .001). Mediation analysis showed that SBP contributed to 14.23% of the relationship between BMI and NAFLD in the general group and 31.07 and 22.67% of the relationship in the female and male groups of individuals younger than 50 years old, respectively. The mediation effect appeared higher among females than among males, especially in participants younger than 50 years.

CONCLUSION

SBP and BMI contribute to the development of NAFLD. SBP mediates a positive association between BMI and NAFLD among individuals younger than 50 years, especially among females.

No potential causal link between HP infection and IBD: A 2way Mendelian randomization study

Recent epidemiological research suggests a possible negative correlation between Helicobacter pylori infection and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, conflicting studies have provided unclear evidence regarding these causal relationships. Therefore, recommending specific prevention and treatment strategies for H. pylori infection and IBD is challenging. We used various antibodies (anti-H. pylori IgG, VacA, and GroEl) related to H. pylori infection as indicators. We acquired relevant genetic variants from public databases within the Genome-wide Association Studies (GWAS) dataset using IBDs tool variables from 2 different GWAS datasets. We thoroughly examined the data and screened for IVs that fulfilled these criteria. Subsequently, Bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) was conducted to predict the potential causality between the 2. To ensure the accuracy and robustness of our results, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses. Based on our comprehensive MR analysis, no potential causal relationship was observed between H. pylori infection and IBD. Across various methodologies, including IVW, MR-Egger, and weighted median, our findings showed P values > .05. The only exception was observed in the reverse MR analysis using the MR-Egger method, which yielded a P value of < .05. However, because the IVW method is considered the most statistically significant method for MR, and its P value was > .05, we do not believe that a potential causal relationship exists between them. Our sensitivity analysis did not suggest significant horizontal pleiotropism. Although heterogeneity was detected in the analysis of IBD (IIBDGC source) versus H. pylori GroEL antibody levels (MR-Egger, Qp = 0.038; IVW, Qp = 0.043), the results remained reliable because we selected IVW as a random-effects model in our MR analysis method. Based on our MR research, no direct correlation was observed between H. pylori infection and IBD risk. This implies that eradicating H. pylori may not provide substantial benefits in preventing or treating regional IBD, and vice versa. Nevertheless, the use of H. pylori serological index substitution has limitations, and further research using histological diagnosis and additional MR studies is required to comprehensively assess the link between H. pylori infection and IBD.

Risk of de novo esophageal cancer in liver transplant recipients: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

De novo malignancy is the leading cause of death in liver transplant recipients. Numerous studies consistently show a significantly increased risk of esophageal cancer after liver transplantation. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the incidence and risk factors associated with de novo esophageal cancer post-liver transplantation.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, Medline and Cochrane Library were systematically searched. Screening, quality assessment, and data extraction were completed. The search was completed in November 2023. Standardized incidence rates (SIRs) were used to measure the risk of esophageal cancer among liver transplant recipients, along with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). A random effects model was employed for comprehensive analysis, and results were presented using a forest plot. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken by systematically excluding individual studies one by one, while potential publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. Additionally, subgroup analyses were also performed to explore sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Out of 1,037 articles collected, only twelve met the inclusion criteria after rigorous screening. Statistical analysis showed a significantly increased risk of esophageal cancer following liver transplantation compared to the general population (SIR =6.75, 95% CI: 4.35-10.46).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of esophageal cancer significantly increases after liver transplantation, so regular gastrointestinal endoscopy is necessary after the procedure.

Effect of smoking-related features and 731 immune cell phenotypes on esophageal cancer: a two-sample and mediated Mendelian randomized study

INTRODUCTION

Numerous observational studies have indicated that smoking is a substantial risk factor for esophageal cancer. However, there is a shortage of research that delves into the specific causal relationship and potential mediators between the two. Our study aims to validate the correlation between smoking-related traits and esophageal cancer while exploring the possible mediating effects of immune factors.

METHODS

Initially, we conducted bidirectional univariate Mendelian Randomization (MR) analyses to forecast the causal effects linking smoking-related traits and esophageal cancer. Subsequently, we employed a two-step MR analysis to scrutinize immune cell phenotypes that could mediate these effects. Finally, the coefficient product method was employed to determine the precise mediating impact. Additionally, we have refined our sensitivity analysis to ensure the reliability of the outcomes.

RESULTS

After analysis, Smoking status: Never had a significant negative association with the incidence of esophageal cancer (inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, p=1.82e-05, OR=0.10, 95%CI=0.04~0.29). Ever smoked (IVW, p=1.49e-02, OR=4.31, 95%CI=1.33~13.94) and Current tobacco smoking (IVW, p=1.49e-02, OR=4.31, 95%CI=1.33~13.94) showed the promoting effect on the pathogenesis of esophageal cancer. Through further examination, researchers discovered 21 immune cell phenotypes that have a causal relationship with esophageal cancer. After careful screening, two immune cell phenotypes were found to have potential mediating effects. In particular, it was observed that in the case of the preventive effect of Smoking status: Never on esophageal cancer, the absolute count of CD62L plasmacytoid dendritic cells mediated a reduction of 4.21%, while the mediating effect of CD27 in CD20-CD38-B cells was -4.12%. In addition, sensitivity analyses did not reveal significant heterogeneity or level pleiotropy.

CONCLUSION

The study provides new evidence for the causal relationship between smoking-related features and esophageal cancer and proposes immune factors with potential mediating effects. However, this finding needs to be further demonstrated by more extensive clinical studies.

Closure methods for large defects after gastrointestinal endoscopic submucosal dissection

Nowadays, endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) is commonly performed for the removal of large gastrointestinal lesions. Endoscopic mucosal defect closure after ESD is vital to avoid adverse events. In recent years, many innovative instruments have emerged and proved to be beneficial. In this paper, we conducted a thorough literature review and summarized the closure methods for large-size post-ESD mucosal defects over decades. We separated these methods into five categories based on the operational principle: "side closure" method, "ring closure" method, "layered closure" method, "hand suturing closure" method, and "specially designed device closure" method. Side closure with clips assisted by instruments such as threads or loops is applicable for each segment of the gastrointestinal tract to prevent postoperative bleeding. If the defect tension is too large to close with the traditional side closure methods, zigzag closure and ring closure could be applied to gather the bilateral defect edges together and achieve continuous closure. In the stomach and rectum with a high risk of submucosal dead space between the submucosa and muscular layers, side closure methods with muscle layer grasping clip or layered closure methods could enable the involvement of the deep submucosa and muscle layers. The ring closure method and specially designed devices including over-the-scope clip, Overstitch, and X-tack could resolve perforation effectively. Individual closure method requires endoscope reinsertion or sophisticated operation, which may be limited by the deep location and the narrow lumen, respectively. Although specially designed devices are expected to offer promising prospectives, the cost-effectiveness remains to be a problem.