COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy

OBJECTIVE

Mathematical models are vital tools to understand transmission dynamics and assess the impact of interventions to mitigate COVID-19. However, historically, their use in Africa has been limited. In this scoping review, we assess how mathematical models were used to study COVID-19 vaccination to potentially inform pandemic planning and response in Africa.

METHODS

We searched six electronic databases: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health, MathSciNet and Africa-Wide NiPAD, using keywords to identify articles focused on the use of mathematical modelling studies of COVID-19 vaccination in Africa that were published as of October 2022. We extracted the details on the country, author affiliation, characteristics of models, policy intent and heterogeneity factors. We assessed quality using 21-point scale criteria on model characteristics and content of the studies.

RESULTS

The literature search yielded 462 articles, of which 32 were included based on the eligibility criteria. Nineteen (59%) studies had a first author affiliated with an African country. Of the 32 included studies, 30 (94%) were compartmental models. By country, most studies were about or included South Africa (n = 12, 37%), followed by Morocco (n = 6, 19%) and Ethiopia (n = 5, 16%). Most studies (n = 19, 59%) assessed the impact of increasing vaccination coverage on COVID-19 burden. Half (n = 16, 50%) had policy intent: prioritising or selecting interventions, pandemic planning and response, vaccine distribution and optimisation strategies and understanding transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Fourteen studies (44%) were of medium quality and eight (25%) were of high quality.

CONCLUSIONS

While decision-makers could draw vital insights from the evidence generated from mathematical modelling to inform policy, we found that there was limited use of such models exploring vaccination impacts for COVID-19 in Africa. The disparity can be addressed by scaling up mathematical modelling training, increasing collaborative opportunities between modellers and policymakers, and increasing access to funding.

Evidence-based Decision Making: Infectious Disease Modeling Training for Policymakers in East Africa

Background

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases is an important decision-making tool for outbreak control. However, in Africa, limited expertise reduces the use and impact of these tools on policy. Therefore, there is a need to build capacity in Africa for the use of mathematical modeling to inform policy. Here we describe our experience implementing a mathematical modeling training program for public health professionals in East Africa.

Methods

We used a deliverable-driven and learning-by-doing model to introduce trainees to the mathematical modeling of infectious diseases. The training comprised two two-week in-person sessions and a practicum where trainees received intensive mentorship. Trainees evaluated the content and structure of the course at the end of each week, and this feedback informed the strategy for subsequent weeks.

Findings

Out of 875 applications from 38 countries, we selected ten trainees from three countries - Rwanda (6), Kenya (2), and Uganda (2) - with guidance from an advisory committee. Nine trainees were based at government institutions and one at an academic organization. Participants gained skills in developing models to answer questions of interest and critically appraising modeling studies. At the end of the training, trainees prepared policy briefs summarizing their modeling study findings. These were presented at a dissemination event to policymakers, researchers, and program managers. All trainees indicated they would recommend the course to colleagues and rated the quality of the training with a median score of 9/10.

Conclusions

Mathematical modeling training programs for public health professionals in Africa can be an effective tool for research capacity building and policy support to mitigate infectious disease burden and forecast resources. Overall, the course was successful, owing to a combination of factors, including institutional support, trainees' commitment, intensive mentorship, a diverse trainee pool, and regular evaluations.

Increasing access to pediatric surgical care: Assessing district hospital readiness in rural Rwanda

Introduction/Background

Safe and quality surgery is crucial for child health. In Rwanda, district hospitals serve as primary entry points for pediatric patients needing surgical care. This paper reports on the organizational readiness and facility capacity to provide pediatric surgery in three district hospitals in rural Rwanda.

Methods

We administered the Children's Surgical Assessment Tool (CSAT), adapted for a Rwandan district hospital, to assess facility readiness across 5 domains (infrastructure, workforce, service delivery, financing, and training) at three Partners in Health supported district hospitals (Kirehe, Rwinkwavu, and Butaro District Hospitals). We used the Safe Surgery Organizational Readiness Tool (SSORT) to measure perceived individual and team readiness to implement surgical quality improvement interventions across 14 domains.

Results

None of the facilities had a dedicated pediatric surgeon, and the most common barriers to pediatric surgery were lack of surgeon (68%), lack of physician anesthesiologists (19%), and inadequate infrastructure (17%). There were gaps in operating and recovery room infrastructure, and information management for pediatric outpatients and referrals. In SSORT interviews (n=47), the highest barriers to increasing pediatric surgery capacity were facility capacity (mean score=2.6 out of 5), psychological safety (median score=3.0 out of 5), and resistance to change (mean score=1.5 out of 5 with 5=no resistance).

Conclusions

This study highlights challenges in providing safe and high-quality surgical care to pediatric patients in three rural district hospitals in Rwanda. It underscores the need for targeted interventions to address facility and organizational barriers prior to implementing interventions to expand pediatric surgical capacity.

COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in three rural communes in Haiti: A cross-sectional study

Vaccines are the most effective mechanism for ending the COVID-19 pandemic. However, reluctance to accept vaccines has hindered the efforts of health authorities to combat the virus. In Haiti, as of July 2021, less than 1% of the country's population has been fully vaccinated in part due to vaccine hesitancy. Our goal was to assess Haitian attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination and investigate the primary reasons for Moderna vaccine hesitancy. We conducted a cross-sectional survey across three rural Haitian communities, in September 2021. The research team used electronic tablets to collect quantitative data from 1,071 respondents, selected randomly across the communities. We report descriptive statistics and identify variables associated with vaccine acceptance using logistic regression built using a backward stepwise approach. Among 1,071 respondents, the overall acceptance rate was 27.0% (n = 285). The most common reason for vaccine hesitancy was "concern about side effects" (n = 484, 67.1%) followed by "concern about contracting COVID-19 from the vaccine" (n = 472, 65.4%). Three-quarters of respondents (n = 817) identified their healthcare workers as their most trustworthy source for information related to the vaccine. In the bivariate analysis, male gender (p = .06) and no history of drinking alcohol (p < .001) were significantly associated with being more likely to take the vaccine. In the final reduced model, only those with a history of drinking alcohol were significantly more likely to take the vaccine (aOR = 1.47 (1.23, 1.87) p < .001). The acceptance rate for the COVID-19 vaccine is low, and public health experts should design and strengthen vaccination campaigns to combat misinformation and public distrust.

Feasibility and effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood glucose among insulin-dependent patients with type 2 diabetes: open randomized control trial in three rural districts in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes in sub Saharan Africa (SSA) has been on the rise. Effective control of blood glucose is key towards reducing the risk of diabetes complications. Findings mainly from high-income countries have demonstrated the effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood-glucose (SMBG) in controlling blood glucose levels. However, there are limited studies describing the implementation of SMBG in rural SSA. This study explores the feasibility and effectiveness of implementing SMBG among patients diagnosed with insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes in rural Rwanda.

METHODS

Participants were randomized into intervention (n = 42) and control (n = 38) groups. The intervention group received a glucose-meter, blood test-strips, log-book, waste management box and training on SMBG in addition to usual care. The control group continued with their usual care consisting of, routine monthly medical consultation and health education. The primary outcomes were adherence to the implementation of SMBG (testing schedule and recording data in the log-book) and change in hemoglobin A1c. Descriptive statistics and a paired t-test were used to analyze the primary outcomes.

RESULTS

In both the intervention and control arms, majority of the participants were female (59.5% vs 52.6%) and married (71.4% vs 73.7%). Most had at most a primary level education (83.3% vs. 89.4%) and were farmers (54.8% vs. 50.0%). Among those in the intervention group, 63.4% showed good adherence to implementing SMBG based on the number of tests recorded in the glucose meter. Only 20.3% demonstrated accurate recording of the glucose level tests in log-books. The mean difference of the HbA1C from baseline to six months post-intervention was significantly better among the intervention group -0.94% (95% CI -1.46, -0.41) compared to the control group 0.73% (95% CI -0.09, 1.54) p < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Our study showed that among patients with insulin-dependent type 2 diabetes residing in rural Rwanda, SMBG was feasible and demonstrated positive outcomes in improving blood glucose control. However, there is need for strategies to enhance accuracy in recording blood glucose test results in the log-book.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The trial was registered retrospectively on the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, on 17^th May 2019. The registration number is PACTR201905538846394.

mHealth-community health worker telemedicine intervention for surgical site infection diagnosis: a prospective study among women delivering via caesarean section in rural Rwanda

Background

Surgical site infections (SSIs) cause a significant global public health burden in low and middle-income countries. Most SSIs develop after patient discharge and may go undetected. We assessed the feasibility and diagnostic accuracy of an mHealth-community health worker (CHW) home-based telemedicine intervention to diagnose SSIs in women who delivered via caesarean section in rural Rwanda.

Methods

This prospective cohort study included women who underwent a caesarean section at Kirehe District Hospital between September 2019 and March 2020. At postoperative day 10 (±3 days), a trained CHW visited the woman at home, provided wound care and transmitted a photo of the wound to a remote general practitioner (GP) via WhatsApp. The GP reviewed the photo and made an SSI diagnosis. The next day, the woman returned to the hospital for physical examination by an independent GP, whose SSI diagnosis was considered the gold standard for our analysis. We describe the intervention process indicators and report the sensitivity and specificity of the telemedicine-based diagnosis.

Results

Of 787 women included in the study, 91.4% (n=719) were located at their home by the CHW and all of them (n=719, 100%) accepted the intervention. The full intervention was completed, including receipt of GP telemedicine diagnosis within 1 hour, for 79.0% (n=623). The GPs diagnosed 30 SSIs (4.2%) through telemedicine and 38 SSIs (5.4%) through physical examination. The telemedicine sensitivity was 36.8% and specificity was 97.6%. The negative predictive value was 96.4%.

Conclusions

Implementation of an mHealth-CHW home-based intervention in rural Rwanda and similar settings is feasible. Patients’ acceptance of the intervention was key to its success. The telemedicine-based SSI diagnosis had a high negative predictive value but a low sensitivity. Further studies must explore strategies to improve accuracy, such as accompanying wound images with clinical data or developing algorithms using machine learning.

Gender equity in health research publishing in Africa

INTRODUCTION

Women researchers find it more difficult to publish in academic journals than men, an inequity that affects women's careers and was exacerbated during the pandemic, particularly for women in low-income and middle-income countries. We measured publishing by sub-Saharan African (SSA) women in prestigious authorship positions (first or last author, or single author) during the time frame 2014-2016. We also examined policies and practices at journals publishing high rates of women scientists from sub-Saharan Africa, to identify potential structural enablers affecting these women in publishing.

METHODS

The study used Namsor V.2, an application programming interface, to conduct a secondary analysis of a bibliometric database. We also analysed policies and practices of ten journals with the highest number of SSA women publishing in first authorship positions.

RESULTS

Based on regional analyses, the greatest magnitude of authorship inequity is in papers from sub-Saharan Africa, where men comprised 61% of first authors, 65% of last authors and 66% of single authors. Women from South Africa and Nigeria had greater success in publishing than those from other SSA countries, though women represented at least 20% of last authors in 25 SSA countries. The journals that published the most SSA women as prominent authors are journals based in SSA. Journals with overwhelmingly male leadership are also among those publishing the highest number of SSA women.

CONCLUSION

Women scholars in SSA face substantial gender inequities in publishing in prestigious authorship positions in academic journals, though there is a cadre of women research leaders across the region. Journals in SSA are important for local women scholars and the inequities SSA women researchers face are not necessarily attributable to gender discrepancy in journals' editorial leadership.

Does community-based health insurance protect women from financial catastrophe after cesarean section? A prospective study from a rural hospital in Rwanda

BACKGROUND

The implementation of community-based health insurance in (CBHI) in Rwanda has reduced out of pocket (OOP) spending for the > 79% of citizens who enroll in it but the effect for surgical patients is not well described. For all but the poorest citizens who are completely subsidized, the OOP (out of pocket) payment at time of service is 10%. However, 55.5% of the population is below the international poverty line meaning that even this copay can have a significant impact on a family's financial health. The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of OOP payments for cesarean sections in the context of CBHI and determine if having it reduces catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).

METHODS

This study is nested in a larger randomized controlled trial of women undergoing cesarean section at a district hospital in Rwanda. Eligible patients were surveyed at discharge to quantify household income and routine monthly expenditures and direct and indirect spending related to the hospitalization. This was used in conjunction with hospital billing records to calculate the rate of catastrophic expenditure by insurance group.

RESULTS

About 94% of the 340 women met the World Bank definition of extreme poverty. Of the 330 (97.1%) with any type of health insurance, the majority (n = 310, 91.2%) have CBHI. The average OOP expenditure for a cesarean section and hospitalization was $9.36. The average cost adding transportation to the hospital was $19.29. 164 (48.2%) had to borrow money and 43 (12.7%) had to sell possessions. The hospital bill alone was a CHE for 5.3% of patients. However, when including transportation costs, 15.4% incurred a CHE and including lost wages, 22.6%.

CONCLUSION

To ensure universal health coverage (UHC), essential surgical care must be affordable. Despite enrollment in universal health insurance, cesarean section still impoverishes households in rural Rwanda, the majority of whom already lie below the poverty line. Although CBHI protects against CHE from the cost of healthcare, when adding in the cost of transportation, lost wages and caregivers, cesarean section is still often a catastrophic financial event. Further innovation in financial risk protection is needed to provide equitable UHC.

Mixed Methods Lot Quality Assurance Sampling: A novel, rapid methodology to inform equity focused maternal health programming in rural Rajasthan, India

India has experienced a significant increase in facility-based delivery (FBD) coverage and reduction in maternal mortality. Nevertheless, India continues to have high levels of maternal health inequity. Improving equity requires data collection methods that can produce a better contextual understanding of how vulnerable populations access and interact with the health care system at a local level. While large population-level surveys are valuable, they are resource intensive and often lack the contextual specificity and timeliness to be useful for local health programming. Qualitative methods can be resource intensive and may lack generalizability. We describe an innovative mixed-methods application of Large Country-Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LC-LQAS) that provides local coverage data and qualitative insights for both FBD and antenatal care (ANC) in a low-cost and timely manner that is useful for health care providers working in specific contexts. LC-LQAS is a version of LQAS that combines LQAS for local level classification with multistage cluster sampling to obtain precise regional or national coverage estimates. We integrated qualitative questions to uncover mothers' experiences accessing maternal health care in the rural district of Sri Ganganagar, Rajasthan, India. We interviewed 313 recently delivered, low-income women in 18 subdistricts. All respondents participated in both qualitative and quantitative components. All subdistricts were classified as having high FBD coverage with the upper threshold set at 85%, suggesting that improved coverage has extended to vulnerable women. However, only two subdistricts were classified as high ANC coverage with the upper threshold set at 40%. Qualitative data revealed a severe lack of agency among respondents and that household norms of care seeking influenced uptake of ANC and FBD. We additionally report on implementation outcomes (acceptability, feasibility, appropriateness, effectiveness, fidelity, and cost) and how study results informed the programs of a local health non-profit.

One hundred thirty-three observed COVID-19 deaths in 10 months: unpacking lower than predicted mortality in Rwanda

The African region was predicted to have worse COVID-19 infection and death rates due to challenging health systems and social determinants of health. However, in the 10 months after its first case, Rwanda recorded 10316 cases and 133 COVID-19-related deaths translating to a case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.3%, which raised the question: why does Rwanda have a low COVID-19 CFR? Here we analysed COVID-19 data and explored possible explanations to better understand the disease burden in the context of Rwanda's infection control strategies.We investigated whether the age distribution plays a role in the observed low CFR in Rwanda by comparing the expected number of deaths for 10-year age bands based on the CFR reported in other countries with the observed number of deaths for each age group. We found that the age-specific CFRs in Rwanda are similar to or, in some older age groups, slightly higher than those in other countries, suggesting that the lower population level CFR reflects the younger age structure in Rwanda, rather than a lower risk of death conditional on age. We also accounted for Rwanda's comprehensive SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies and reliable documentation of COVID-19-related deaths and deduced that these measures may have allowed them to likely identify more asymptomatic or mild cases than other countries and reduced their reported CFR.Overall, the observed low COVID-19 deaths in Rwanda is likely influenced by the combination of effective infection control strategies, reliable identification of cases and reporting of deaths, and the population's young age structure.

Implementation of blood glucose self-monitoring among insulin-dependent patients with type 2 diabetes in three rural districts in Rwanda: 6 months open randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Most patients diagnosed with diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) present with poorly controlled blood glucose, which is associated with increased risks of complications and greater financial burden on both the patients and health systems. Insulin-dependent patients with diabetes in SSA lack appropriate home-based monitoring technology to inform themselves and clinicians of the daily fluctuations in blood glucose. Without sufficient home-based data, insulin adjustments are not data driven and adopting individual behavioural change for glucose control in SSA does not have a systematic path towards improvement.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This study explores the feasibility and impact of implementing self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) in patients with type 2 diabetes in rural Rwandan districts. This is an open randomised controlled trial comprising of two arms: (1) Intervention group-participants will receive a glucose metre, blood test strips, logbook, waste management box and training on how to conduct SMBG in additional to usual care and (2) Control group-participants will receive usual care, comprising of clinical consultations and routine monthly follow-up. We will conduct qualitative interviews at enrolment and at the end of the study to assess knowledge of diabetes. At the end of the study period, we will interview clinicians and participants to assess the perceived usefulness, facilitators and barriers of SMBG. The primary outcomes are change in haemoglobin A1c, fidelity to SMBG protocol by patients, appropriateness and adverse effects resulting from SMBG. Secondary outcomes include reliability and acceptability of SMBG and change in the quality of life of the participants.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the Rwanda National Ethics Committee (Kigali, Rwanda No.102/RNEC/2018). We will disseminate the findings of this study through presentations within our study settings, scientific conferences and publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PACTR201905538846394; pre-results.

Stuck in the middle: a systematic review of authorship in collaborative health research in Africa, 2014-2016

Background

Collaborations are often a cornerstone of global health research. Power dynamics can shape if and how local researchers are included in manuscripts. This article investigates how international collaborations affect the representation of local authors, overall and in first and last author positions, in African health research.

Methods

We extracted papers on 'health' in sub-Saharan Africa indexed in PubMed and published between 2014 and 2016. The author's affiliation was used to classify the individual as from the country of the paper's focus, from another African country, from Europe, from the USA/Canada or from another locale. Authors classified as from the USA/Canada were further subclassified if the author was from a top US university. In primary analyses, individuals with multiple affiliations were presumed to be from a high-income country if they contained any affiliation from a high-income country. In sensitivity analyses, these individuals were presumed to be from an African country if they contained any affiliation an African country. Differences in paper characteristics and representation of local coauthors are compared by collaborative type using χ² tests.

Results

Of the 7100 articles identified, 68.3% included collaborators from the USA, Canada, Europe and/or another African country. 54.0% of all 43 429 authors and 52.9% of 7100 first authors were from the country of the paper's focus. Representation dropped if any collaborators were from USA, Canada or Europe with the lowest representation for collaborators from top US universities-for these papers, 41.3% of all authors and 23.0% of first authors were from country of paper's focus. Local representation was highest with collaborators from another African country. 13.5% of all papers had no local coauthors.

Discussion

Individuals, institutions and funders from high-income countries should challenge persistent power differentials in global health research. South-South collaborations can help African researchers expand technical expertise while maintaining presence on the resulting research.

Health Facility Cost of Cesarean Delivery at a Rural District Hospital in Rwanda Using Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing

Objective To determine the health facility cost of cesarean section at a rural district hospital in Rwanda. Methods Using time-driven activity-based costing, this study calculated capacity cost rates (cost per minute) for personnel, infrastructure and hospital indirect costs, and estimated the costs of medical consumables and medicines based on purchase prices, all for the pre-, intra- and post-operative periods. We estimated copay (10% of total cost) for women with community-based health insurance and conducted sensitivity analysis to estimate total cost range. Results The total cost of a cesarean delivery was US$339 including US$118 (35%) for intra-operative costs and US$221 (65%) for pre- and post-operative costs. Costs per category included US$46 (14%) for personnel, US$37 (11%) for infrastructure, US$109 (32%) for medicines, US$122 (36%) for medical consumables, and US$25 (7%) for hospital indirect costs. The estimated copay for women with community-based health insurance was US$34 and the total cost ranged from US$320 to US$380. Duration of hospital stay was the main marginal cost variable increasing overall cost by US$27 (8%). Conclusions for Practice The cost of cesarean delivery and the cost drivers (medicines and medical consumables) in our setting were similar to previous estimates in sub-Saharan Africa but higher than earlier average estimate in Rwanda. The estimated copay is potentially catastrophic for poor rural women. Investigation on the impact of true out of pocket costs on women's health outcomes, and strategies for reducing duration of hospital stay while maintaining high quality care are recommended.

Growing research in global surgery with an eye towards equity

Background

Global surgery research is often generated through collaborative partnerships between researchers from both low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and high-income countries (HICs). Inequitable engagement of LMIC collaborators can limit the impact of the research.

Methods

This article describes evidence of inequities in the conduct of global surgery research and outlines reasons why the inequities in this research field may be more acute than in other global health research disciplines. The paper goes on to describe activities for building a collaborative research portfolio in rural Rwanda.

Results

Inequities in global surgery research collaborations can be attributed to: a limited number and experience of researchers working in this field; time constraints on both HIC and LMIC global surgery researchers; and surgical journal policies. Approaches to build a robust, collaborative research portfolio in Rwanda include leading research trainings focused on global surgery projects, embedding surgical fellows in Rwanda to provide bidirectional research training and outlining all research products, ensuring that all who are engaged have opportunities to grow in capacities, including leading research, and that collaborators share opportunities equitably. Of the 22 published or planned papers, half are led by Rwandan researchers, and the research now has independent research funding.

Conclusion

It is unacceptable to gather data from an LMIC without meaningful engagement in all aspects of the research and sharing opportunities with local collaborators. The strategies outlined here can help research teams build global surgery research portfolios that optimize the potential for equitable engagement.

Adapting operational research training to the Rwandan context: the Intermediate Operational Research Training programme

Background: Promoting national health research agendas in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires adequate numbers of individuals with skills to initiate and conduct research. Recently, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have joined research capacity building efforts to increase research leadership by LMIC nationals. Partners In Health, an international NGO operating in Rwanda, implemented its first Intermediate Operational Research Training (IORT) course to cultivate Rwandan research talent and generate evidence to improve health care delivery.

Objective: This paper describes the implementation of IORT to share experiences with other organizations interested in developing similar training programmes.

Methods: The Intermediate Operational Research Training utilized a deliverable-driven training model, using learning-by-doing pedagogy with intensive hands-on mentorship to build research skills from protocol development to scientific publication. The course had short (two-day) but frequent training sessions (seven sessions over eight months). Trainees were clinical and programme staff working at the district level who were paired to jointly lead a research project.

Results: Of 10 trainees admitted to the course from a pool of 24 applicants, nine trainees completed the course with five research projects published in peer-reviewed journals. Strengths of the course included supportive national and institutional research capacity guidelines, building from a successful training model, and trainee commitment. Challenges included delays in ethical review, high mentorship workload of up to 250 hours of practicum mentorship, lack of access to literature in subscription journals and high costs of open access publication.

Conclusions: The IORT course was an effective way to support the district-based government and NGO staff in gaining research skills, as well as answering research questions relevant to health service delivery at district hospitals. Other NGOs should build on successful programmes while adapting course elements to address context-specific challenges. Mentorship for LMIC trainees is critical for effectiveness of research capacity building initiatives.

Estimating program coverage in the treatment of severe acute malnutrition: a comparative analysis of the validity and operational feasibility of two methods

Background

Many health programs can assess coverage using standardized cluster survey methods, but estimating the coverage of nutrition programs presents a special challenge due to low disease prevalence. Used since 2012, the Semi-Quantitative Evaluation of Access and Coverage (SQUEAC) employs both qualitative and quantitative methods to identify key barriers to access and estimate coverage of therapeutic feeding programs. While the tool has been increasingly used in programs, the validity of certain methodological elements has been the subject of debate.

Methods

We conducted a study comparing a SQUEAC conjugate Bayesian analysis to a two-stage cluster survey estimating the coverage of a therapeutic feeding program in Niger in 2016.

Results

We found that the coverage estimate from the conjugate Bayesian analysis was sensitive to the prior estimation. With the exception of prior estimates produced by an external support team, all prior estimates resulted in a conflict with the likelihood result, excluding interpretation of the final coverage estimate. Allowing for increased uncertainty around the prior estimate did not materially affect conclusions.

Conclusion

SQUEAC is a demanding analytical method requiring both qualitative and quantitative data collection and synthesis to identify program barriers and estimate coverage. If the necessary technical capacity is not available to objectively specify an accurate prior for a conjugate Bayesian analysis, alternatives, such as a two-stage cluster survey or a larger likelihood survey, may be considered to ensure valid coverage estimation.

Trial registration

NCT03280082. Retrospectively registered on September 12, 2017.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12963-018-0167-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Exposure to Genocide as a Risk Factor for Homicide Perpetration in Rwanda: A Population-Based Case-Control Study

A population-based case-control study was conducted to assess the relationship between genocide exposure and homicide perpetration in Rwanda. A sample of 150 homicide perpetrators who were charged with and confessed to having committed homicide between 1 May 2011 and 31 May 2013 and 450 controls were enrolled. Cases were matched to controls by neighborhood, age and sex. Socio-demographic, background and genocide-related information was collected from study subjects' next of kin. Four characteristics of genocide exposure were: genocide survivor, genocide perpetrator, having lost a first-degree relative to genocide and having a first-degree relative convicted of genocide. We assessed the impact of each genocide-exposure variable using conditional logistic regression. Of the 150 cases, 124 (82.7%) were male and 26 (17.3%) were female. The mean age of the alleged homicide perpetrators was 33 years, with a peak in the age group 20-29 years (39.3%). After adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics and past common criminal records, having a first-degree relative who had been convicted of genocide crimes was a significant predictor for homicide perpetration (odds ratio [OR] = 14.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6-129.4). Being a genocide perpetrator, a genocide survivor and having lost a first-degree family member to genocide were not identified as risk factors for homicide perpetration. In Rwanda, young people who experienced early exposure to trauma by witnessing their first-degree relatives' active participation in the genocide, are more likely to commit homicide. Socio-economic and psychotherapeutic programs targeting this population group are needed to rehabilitate these young people for violent behavior change.

Using mobile health technology and community health workers to identify and refer caesarean-related surgical site infections in rural Rwanda: a randomised controlled trial protocol

INTRODUCTION

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, where rates of SSIs can reach 30%. Due to limited access, there is minimal follow-up postoperatively. Community health workers (CHWs) have not yet been used for surgical patients in most settings. Advancements in telecommunication create an opportunity for mobile health (mHealth) tools to support CHWs. We aim to evaluate the use of mHealth technology to aid CHWs in identification of SSIs and promote referral of patients back to healthcare facilities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Prospective randomised controlled trial conducted at Kirehe District Hospital, Rwanda, from November 2017 to November 2018. Patients ≥18 years who undergo caesarean section are eligible. Non-residents of Kirehe District or patients who remain in hospital >10 days postoperatively will be excluded. Patients will be randomised to one of three arms. For arm 1, a CHW will visit the patient's home on postoperative day 10 (±3 days) to administer an SSI screening protocol (fever, pain or purulent drainage) using an electronic tablet. For arm 2, the CHW will administer the screening protocol over the phone. For both arms 1 and 2, the CHW will refer patients who respond 'yes' to any of the questions to a health facility. For arm 3, patients will not receive follow-up care. Our primary outcome will be the impact of the mHealth-CHW intervention on the rate of return to care for patients with an SSI.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received ethical approval from the Rwandan National Ethics Committee and Partners Healthcare. Results will be disseminated to Kirehe District Hospital, Rwanda Ministry of Health, Rwanda Surgical Society, Partners In Health, through conferences and peer-reviewed publications.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03311399.

Care-seeking patterns among families that experienced under-five child mortality in rural Rwanda

Background

Over half of under-five deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa and appropriate, timely, quality care is critical for saving children’s lives. This study describes the context surrounding children’s deaths from the time the illness was first noticed, through the care-seeking patterns leading up to the child’s death, and identifies factors associated with care-seeking for these children in rural Rwanda.

Methods

Secondary analysis of a verbal and social autopsy study of caregivers who reported the death of a child between March 2013 to February 2014 that occurred after discharge from the child’s birth facility in southern Kayonza and Kirehe districts in Rwanda. Bivariate analyses using Fisher’s exact tests were conducted to identify child, caregiver, and household factors associated with care-seeking from the formal health system (i.e., community health worker or health facility). Factors significant at α = 0.10 significance level were considered for backwards stepwise multivariate logistic regression, stopping when remaining factors were significantly associated with care-seeking at α = 0.05 significance level.

Results

Among the 516 eligible deaths among children under-five, 22.7% (n = 117) did not seek care from the health system. For those who did, the most common first point of contact was community health workers (45.8%). In multivariate logistic regression, higher maternal education (OR = 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89, 5.98), having diarrhea (OR = 4.21, 95%CI: 1.95, 9.07) or fever (OR = 2.03, 95%CI: 1.11, 3.72), full household insurance coverage (3.48, 95%CI: 1.79, 6.76), and longer duration of illness (OR = 22.19, 95%CI: 8.88, 55.48) were significantly associated with formal care-seeking.

Conclusion

Interventions such as community health workers and insurance promote access to care, however a gap remains as many children had no contact with the health system prior to death and those who sought formal care still died. Further efforts are needed to respond to urgent cases in communities and further understand remaining barriers to accessing appropriate, quality care.

Research capacity building integrated into PHIT projects: leveraging research and research funding to build national capacity

Background

Inadequate research capacity impedes the development of evidence-based health programming in sub-Saharan Africa. However, funding for research capacity building (RCB) is often insufficient and restricted, limiting institutions’ ability to address current RCB needs. The Doris Duke Charitable Foundation’s African Health Initiative (AHI) funded Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) partnership projects in five African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania and Zambia) to implement health systems strengthening initiatives inclusive of RCB.

Methods

Using Cooke’s framework for RCB, RCB activity leaders from each country reported on RCB priorities, activities, program metrics, ongoing challenges and solutions. These were synthesized by the authorship team, identifying common challenges and lessons learned.

Results

For most countries, each of the RCB domains from Cooke’s framework was a high priority. In about half of the countries, domain specific activities happened prior to PHIT. During PHIT, specific RCB activities varied across countries. However, all five countries used AHI funding to improve research administrative support and infrastructure, implement research trainings and support mentorship activities and research dissemination. While outcomes data were not systematically collected, countries reported holding 54 research trainings, forming 56 mentor-mentee relationships, training 201 individuals and awarding 22 PhD and Masters-level scholarships. Over the 5 years, 116 manuscripts were developed. Of the 59 manuscripts published in peer-reviewed journals, 29 had national first authors and 18 had national senior authors. Trainees participated in 99 conferences and projects held 37 forums with policy makers to facilitate research translation into policy.

Conclusion

All five PHIT projects strongly reported an increase in RCB activities and commended the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation for prioritizing RCB, funding RCB at adequate levels and time frames and for allowing flexibility in funding so that each project could implement activities according to their trainees’ needs. As a result, many common challenges for RCB, such as adequate resources and local and international institutional support, were not identified as major challenges for these projects. Overall recommendations are for funders to provide adequate and flexible funding for RCB activities and for institutions to offer a spectrum of RCB activities to enable continued growth, provide adequate mentorship for trainees and systematically monitor RCB activities.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-017-2657-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Prevalence of Untreated Surgical Conditions in Rural Rwanda: A Population-Based Cross-sectional Study in Burera District

Importance

In low- and middle-income countries, community-level surgical epidemiology is largely undefined. Accurate community-level surgical epidemiology is necessary for surgical health systems planning.

Objective

To determine the prevalence of surgical conditions in Burera District, Northern Province, Rwanda.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A cross-sectional study with a 2-stage cluster sample design (at village and household level) was carried out in Burera District in March and May 2012. A team of surgeons randomly sampled 30 villages with probability proportionate to village population size, then sampled 23 households within each village. All available household members were examined.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The presence of 10 index surgical conditions (injuries/wounds, hernias/hydroceles, breast masses, neck masses, obstetric fistulas, undescended testes, hypospadias, hydrocephalus, cleft lip/palate, and clubfoot) was determined by physical examination. Prevalence was estimated overall and for each condition. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with surgical conditions, accounting for the complex survey design.

Results

Of the 2165 examined individuals, 1215 (56.2%) were female. The prevalence of any surgical condition among all examined individuals was 12% (95% CI, 9.2-14.9%). Half of conditions were hernias/hydroceles (49.6%), and 44% were injuries/wounds. In multivariable analysis, children 5 years or younger had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with married individuals 21 to 35 years of age (reference group) (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; 95% CI, 1.26-4.04; P = .01). The oldest group, people older than 50 years, also had twice the odds of having a surgical condition compared with the reference group (married, aged >50 years: OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.28-4.23; P = .01; unmarried, aged >50 years: OR, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.02-5.52; P = .06). Unmarried individuals 21 to 35 years of age and unmarried individuals aged 36 to 50 years had higher odds of a surgical condition compared with the reference group (aged 21-35 years: OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 0.74-3.82; P = .22; aged 36-50 years: OR, 3.35; 95% CI, 1.29-9.11; P = .02). There was no statistical difference in odds by sex, wealth, education, or travel time to the nearest hospital.

Conclusions and Relevance

The prevalence of surgically treatable conditions in northern Rwanda was considerably higher than previously estimated modeling and surveys in comparable low- and middle-income countries. This surgical backlog must be addressed in health system plans to increase surgical infrastructure and workforce in rural Africa.

Emergency general surgery in Rwandan district hospitals: a cross-sectional study of spectrum, management, and patient outcomes

Background

Management of emergency general surgical conditions remains a challenge in rural sub-Saharan Africa due to issues such as insufficient human capacity and infrastructure. This study describes the burden of emergency general surgical conditions and the ability to provide care for these conditions at three rural district hospitals in Rwanda.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study included all patients presenting to Butaro, Kirehe and Rwinkwavu District Hospitals between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2015 with emergency general surgical conditions, defined as non-traumatic, non-obstetric acute care surgical conditions. We describe patient demographics, clinical characteristics, management and outcomes.

Results

In 2015, 356 patients presented with emergency general surgical conditions. The majority were male (57.2%) and adults aged 15–60 years (54.5%). The most common diagnostic group was soft tissue infections (71.6%), followed by acute abdominal conditions (14.3%). The median length of symptoms prior to diagnosis differed significantly by diagnosis type (p < 0.001), with the shortest being urological emergencies at 1.5 days (interquartile range (IQR):1, 6) and the longest being complicated hernia at 17.5 days (IQR: 1, 208). Of all patients, 54% were operated on at the district hospital, either by a general surgeon or general practitioner. Patients were more likely to receive surgery if they presented to a hospital with a general surgeon compared to a hospital with only general practitioners (75% vs 43%, p < 0.001). In addition, the general surgeon was more likely to treat patients with complex diagnoses such as acute abdominal conditions (33.3% vs 4.1%, p < 0.001) compared to general practitioners. For patients who received surgery, 73.3% had no postoperative complications and 3.2% died.

Conclusion

While acute abdominal conditions are often considered the most common emergency general surgical condition in sub-Saharan Africa, soft tissue infections were the most common in our setting. This could represent a true difference in epidemiology in rural settings compared to referral facilities in urban settings. Patients were more likely to receive an operation in a hospital with a general surgeon as opposed to a general practitioner. This provides evidence to support increasing the surgical workforce in district hospitals in order to increase surgical availability for patients.

Health, nutrition, and development of children born preterm and low birth weight in rural Rwanda: a cross-sectional study

Background

As care for preterm and low birth weight (LBW) infants improves in resource-limited settings, more infants are surviving the neonatal period. Preterm and (LBW) infants are at high-risk of nutritional and medical comorbidities, yet little is known about their developmental outcomes in low-income countries. This study evaluated the health, nutritional, and developmental status of preterm/LBW children at ages 1–3 years in Rwanda.

Methods

Cross-sectional study of preterm/LBW infants discharged between October 2011 and October 2013 from a hospital neonatal unit in rural Rwanda. Gestational age and birth weight were gathered from hospital records to classify small for gestational age (SGA) at birth and prematurity. Children were located in the community for household assessments in November–December 2014. Caregivers reported demographics, health status, and child development using locally-adapted Ages and Stages Questionnaires (ASQ-3). Anthropometrics were measured. Bivariate associations with continuous ASQ-3 scores were conducted using Wilcoxon Rank Sum and Kruskal Wallis tests.

Results

Of 158 eligible preterm/LBW children discharged from the neonatal unit, 86 (54.4%) were alive and located for follow-up. Median birth weight was 1650 grams, median gestational age was 33 weeks, and 50.5% were SGA at birth. At the time of household interviews, median age was 22.5 months, 46.5% of children had feeding difficulties and 39.5% reported signs of anemia. 78.3% of children were stunted and 8.8% wasted. 67.4% had abnormal developmental screening. Feeding difficulties (p = 0.008), anemia symptoms (p = 0.040), microcephaly (p = 0.004), stunting (p = 0.034), SGA (p = 0.023), very LBW (p = 0.043), lower caregiver education (p = 0.001), and more children in the household (p = 0.016) were associated with lower ASQ-3 scores.

Conclusions

High levels of health, growth, and developmental abnormalities were seen in preterm/LBW children at age 1–3 years. As we achieve necessary gains in newborn survival in resource-limited settings, follow-up and early intervention services are critical for ensuring high-risk children reach their developmental potential.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article doi: (10.1186/s12887-017-0946-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.