Mapping the planet's critical areas for biodiversity and nature's contributions to people

Meeting global commitments to conservation, climate, and sustainable development requires consideration of synergies and tradeoffs among targets. We evaluate the spatial congruence of ecosystems providing globally high levels of nature's contributions to people, biodiversity, and areas with high development potential across several sectors. We find that conserving approximately half of global land area through protection or sustainable management could provide 90% of the current levels of ten of nature's contributions to people and meet minimum representation targets for 26,709 terrestrial vertebrate species. This finding supports recent commitments by national governments under the Global Biodiversity Framework to conserve at least 30% of global lands and waters, and proposals to conserve half of the Earth. More than one-third of areas required for conserving nature's contributions to people and species are also highly suitable for agriculture, renewable energy, oil and gas, mining, or urban expansion. This indicates potential conflicts among conservation, climate and development goals.

Mapping the planet's critical natural assets

Sustaining the organisms, ecosystems and processes that underpin human wellbeing is necessary to achieve sustainable development. Here we define critical natural assets as the natural and semi-natural ecosystems that provide 90% of the total current magnitude of 14 types of nature's contributions to people (NCP), and we map the global locations of these critical natural assets at 2 km resolution. Critical natural assets for maintaining local-scale NCP (12 of the 14 NCP) account for 30% of total global land area and 24% of national territorial waters, while 44% of land area is required to also maintain two global-scale NCP (carbon storage and moisture recycling). These areas overlap substantially with cultural diversity (areas containing 96% of global languages) and biodiversity (covering area requirements for 73% of birds and 66% of mammals). At least 87% of the world's population live in the areas benefitting from critical natural assets for local-scale NCP, while only 16% live on the lands containing these assets. Many of the NCP mapped here are left out of international agreements focused on conserving species or mitigating climate change, yet this analysis shows that explicitly prioritizing critical natural assets and the NCP they provide could simultaneously advance development, climate and conservation goals.

Comparative mapping and validation of multiple disease resistance QTL for simultaneously controlling common and dwarf bunt in bread wheat

KEY MESSAGE

Resistance QTL on chromosomes 1AL and 7AL are effective against common and dwarf bunt, QTL on 1BS affects common bunt and QTL on 7DS affects dwarf bunt in bread wheat. Common bunt, caused by Tilletia caries and T. laevis, and dwarf bunt, caused by T. controversa, negatively affect grain yield and quality of wheat and are particularly destructive in low-input and organic production systems. Two recombinant inbred line (RIL) populations derived by crossing the highly and durably resistant cultivars 'Blizzard' and 'Bonneville' to the susceptible cultivar 'Rainer' were evaluated for their resistance to common and dwarf bunt in artificially inoculated field and greenhouse trials over two growing seasons and genotyped with a 15 K SNP array. Bunt resistance QTL were mapped to chromosomes 1AL, 1BS, 7AL and 7DS. Common bunt resistance was regulated by the major QTL QBt.ifa-1BS and QBt.ifa-1AL together with the moderate effect QTL QBt.ifa-7AL. Dwarf bunt resistance was on the other hand regulated by the QTL QBt.ifa-1AL, QBt.ifa-7AL and QBt.ifa-7DS. Common bunt resistance QTL exhibited pronounced epistatic effects, while epistatic effects were of smaller magnitude for dwarf bunt QTL. Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) markers were developed from SNPs associated with bunt resistance QTL and successfully used for QTL validation in an independent set of RILs. These KASP markers have the potential to support targeted introgression of QTL into elite wheat germplasm and accelerate breeding for enhanced bunt resistance. Durable protection against both common and dwarf bunt can be achieved by combining multiple resistance genes in the same genetic background.

Genetic characterization and genome-wide association mapping for dwarf bunt resistance in bread wheat accessions from the USDA National Small Grains Collection

Dwarf bunt-resistant bread wheat accessions and SNP markers associated with DB resistance identified in this study are valuable resources for characterization and deployment of DB resistance in bread wheat. Dwarf bunt (DB), caused by Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn, can significantly reduce grain yield and quality on autumn-sown wheat in regions with prolonged snow cover. DB can be managed with the use of resistant cultivars. The objectives of the present study were to characterize DB resistance in a large set of bread wheat accessions from the National Small Grains Collection and use a genome-wide association study approach to identify genetic loci associated with DB resistance. A total of 292 accessions were selected using historical DB resistance data recorded across many trials and years in the Germplasm Resources Information Network (GRIN) and re-tested for DB resistance in replicated field nurseries in Logan, UT, in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Ninety-eight accessions were resistant with DB normalized incidence ≤ 10%, and twenty-eight of these were highly resistant with DB normalized incidence ≤ 1% in both GRIN and the field nurseries. Based on the presence of marker haplotypes of the four published dwarf bunt QTL on 6DS, 6DL, 7AL, and 7DS, highly resistant accessions identified in this study may provide novel resistance and should be further evaluated. This study validated one previously identified QTL on 6DS and identified an additional locus on 6DS. These loci explained 9-15% of the observed phenotypic variation. The resistant accessions and molecular markers identified in the present study may provide valuable resources for characterization and deployment of DB resistance in bread wheat.

Identification and assessment of two major QTLs for dwarf bunt resistance in winter wheat line 'IDO835'

Two major dwarf bunt resistance QTLs were mapped to a known Bt9 locus and a novel locus. The associated KASP markers were developed and validated in other two populations. Dwarf bunt (DB), caused by Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn, and common bunt (CB), caused by T. caries and T. foetida, are two destructive diseases that reduce grain yield and quality in wheat. Breeding for bunt-resistant cultivars is important in many wheat production areas, especially where organic wheat is grown. However, few molecular markers have been used in selection of bunt resistance. In the present study, a doubled haploid (DH) population derived from the bunt-resistant line 'IDO835' and the susceptible cultivar 'Moreland' was evaluated for DB resistance in a field nursery in Logan, Utah, for four growing seasons. The population was genotyped with the Illumina 90 K SNP iSelect marker platform. Two major QTLs were consistently identified on chromosomes 6DL (Q.DB.ui-6DL) and 7AL (Q.DB.ui-7AL), explaining up to 53% and 38% of the phenotypic variation, respectively. Comparative study suggested that Q.DB.ui-6DL was located in the same region as the CB resistance gene Bt9, and Q.DB.ui-7AL was located at a novel locus for bunt resistance. Based on Chinese Spring reference sequence and annotations (IWGSC RefSeq v1.1), both resistance QTLs were mapped to disease resistance gene-rich (NBS-LRR and kinase genes) regions. To validate the identified QTL and design user-friendly markers for MAS, five SNPs were converted to Kompetitive Allele-Specific PCR (KASP) markers and used to genotype two validation panels, including a DH population and a diverse winter wheat population from USDA-ARS National Small Grain Collection, as well as a Bt gene investigation panel, consisting of 15 bunt differential lines and 11 resistant lines.

Modeling of crop wild relative species identifies areas globally for in situ conservation

The impact of climate change is causing challenges for the agricultural production and food systems. More nutritious and climate resilient crop varieties are required, but lack of available and accessible trait diversity is limiting crop improvement. Crop wild relatives (CWR) are the wild cousins of cultivated crops and a vast resource of genetic diversity for breeding new, higher yielding, climate change tolerant crop varieties, but they are under-conserved (particularly in situ), largely unavailable and therefore underutilized. Here we apply species distribution modelling, climate change projections and geographic analyses to 1261 CWR species from 167 major crop genepools to explore key geographical areas for CWR in situ conservation worldwide. We identify 150 sites where 65.7% of the CWR species identified can be conserved for future use.

Evaluating the impacts of protected areas on human well-being across the developing world

Protected areas (PAs) are fundamental for biodiversity conservation, yet their impacts on nearby residents are contested. We synthesized environmental and socioeconomic conditions of >87,000 children in >60,000 households situated either near or far from >600 PAs within 34 developing countries. We used quasi-experimental hierarchical regression to isolate the impact of living near a PA on several aspects of human well-being. Households near PAs with tourism also had higher wealth levels (by 17%) and a lower likelihood of poverty (by 16%) than similar households living far from PAs. Children under 5 years old living near multiple-use PAs with tourism also had higher height-for-age scores (by 10%) and were less likely to be stunted (by 13%) than similar children living far from PAs. For the largest and most comprehensive socioeconomic-environmental dataset yet assembled, we found no evidence of negative PA impacts and consistent statistical evidence to suggest PAs can positively affect human well-being.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

Rapid Assessment of Ecosystem Service Co-Benefits of Biodiversity Priority Areas in Madagascar

The importance of ecosystems for supporting human well-being is increasingly recognized by both the conservation and development sectors. Our ability to conserve ecosystems that people rely on is often limited by a lack of spatially explicit data on the location and distribution of ecosystem services (ES), the benefits provided by nature to people. Thus there is a need to map ES to guide conservation investments, to ensure these co-benefits are maintained. To target conservation investments most effectively, ES assessments must be rigorous enough to support conservation planning, rapid enough to respond to decision-making timelines, and often must rely on existing data. We developed a framework for rapid spatial assessment of ES that relies on expert and stakeholder consultation, available data, and spatial analyses in order to rapidly identify sites providing multiple benefits. We applied the framework in Madagascar, a country with globally significant biodiversity and a high level of human dependence on ecosystems. Our objective was to identify the ES co-benefits of biodiversity priority areas in order to guide the investment strategy of a global conservation fund. We assessed key provisioning (fisheries, hunting and non-timber forest products, and water for domestic use, agriculture, and hydropower), regulating (climate mitigation, flood risk reduction and coastal protection), and cultural (nature tourism) ES. We also conducted multi-criteria analyses to identify sites providing multiple benefits. While our approach has limitations, including the reliance on proximity-based indicators for several ES, the results were useful for targeting conservation investments by the Critical Ecosystem Partnership Fund (CEPF). Because our approach relies on available data, standardized methods for linking ES provision to ES use, and expert validation, it has the potential to quickly guide conservation planning and investment decisions in other data-poor regions.

A novel QTL associated with dwarf bunt resistance in Idaho 444 winter wheat

KEY MESSAGE

A novel QTL, Q.DB.ui-7DS, and the PCR-based markers identified in the current study will accelerate variety development for resistance to dwarf and common bunt of wheat. Dwarf bunt [Tilletia controversa J.G. Kühn [as 'contraversa'], in Rabenhorst, Hedwigia 13: 188 (1874)] is a destructive disease of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) that reduces grain yield and quality. A number of distinct genes conferring resistance to dwarf bunt have been used by breeding programs for nearly 100 years. However, few markers were identified that can be used in selection of dwarf bunt resistance. A recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from the bunt-resistant germplasm, Idaho 444 (IDO444), and the susceptible cultivar, Rio Blanco, was evaluated for phenotypic reaction to dwarf bunt inoculation in four trials in two locations (USU and USDA) over 3 years. The population was genotyped with the Diversity Arrays Technology (DArT) and the Illumina Infinium 9K iSelect marker platforms. A total of three QTL were detected, and resistant alleles were from IDO444. QTL Q.DB.ui-7DS on 7DS was determined based on the location of a DArT marker wPt-2565 (X116197), which was consistently detected and explained 32 to 56 % of phenotypic variation among the four trials. QTL Q.DB.ui-1A on 1A was detected in three Utah State University (USU) trials and explained 11-15 % of phenotypic variation. QTL Q.DB.ui-2B on 2B was detected in two USU and one United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) trials and explained up to 6 % of phenotypic variation. Two PCR-based markers were developed based on the sequence of wPt-2565 and validated in the RIL population and used in genotyping of dwarf bunt differential lines, known resistance sources, and resistant cultivars.

Estimation of genetic diversity using SSR markers in sunflower

Microsatellites or simple sequence repeats (SSRs) were used for the estimation of genetic diversity among a group of 40 sunflower lines developed at the research area of Department of Plant Breeding and Genetics, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. Total numbers of alleles amplified by 22 polymorphic primers were 135 with an average of 6.13 alleles per locus, suggesting that SSR is a powerful technique for assessment of genetic diversity at molecular level. The expected heterozygosity (PIC) ranged from 0.17 to 0.89. The highest PIC value was observed at the locus C1779. The genetic distances ranged from 9 to 37%. The highest genetic distance was observed between the lines L50 and V3. Genetic distances were low showing lesser amount of genetic diversity among the sunflower lines.

Expression and functional analysis of NUCLEAR FACTOR-Y, subunit B genes in barley

NUCLEAR FACTOR-Y, subunit B (NF-YB) comprises a multigene family in plants and has been shown to play important roles in growth, development, and response to environmental stress. In this study, five NF-YBs containing the full-length coding region were obtained from barley (Hordeum vulgare) through database sequence analysis, cloning, and sequencing. Sequence alignment and phylogenetic analysis showed that HvNF-YB3 and HvNF-YB1 were clustered with NF-YB2 and NF-YB3 in Arabidopsis, suggesting these NF-YBs are evolutionary and functionally related. To test this hypothesis, HvNF-YB3 and HvNF-YB1 were overexpressed in Arabidopsis. Overexpression of HvNF-YB1 greatly promoted early flowering in Arabidopsis, supporting that HvNF-YB1may have conserved gene function in flowering time control as NF-YB2 and NF-YB3 in Arabidopsis. Overexpression of HvNF-YB3 in Arabidopsis had no effect on flowering time. An analysis of barley single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, however, revealed a significant association between an HvNF-YB3 SNP and heading date. While it is unknown whether HvNF-YB3 directly contributes to heading date regulation, the results implied that HvNF-YB3 may also have conserved function in flowering time (heading date in barley) control. Further studies are needed to directly verify these gene functions in barley. Barley NF-YBs showed different expression patterns associated with tissue types, developmental stages, and response to different stress treatments, suggesting that barley NF-YBs may be involved in other physiological processes.

The Shallow Implantation of Bismuth During the Growth of Bismuth Nanocrystals in Al2O3 by Pulsed Laser Deposition

The effect of the laser energy density used to deposit Bi onto amorphous aluminum oxide (a-Al2O3) on the growth of Bi nanocrystals has been investigated using transmission electron microscopy of cross section samples. The laser energy density on the Bi target was varied by one order of magnitude (0.4 to 5 J cm-2). Across the range of energy densities, in addition to the Bi nanocrystals nucleated on the a-Al2O3 surface, a dark and apparently continuous layer appears below the nanocrystals. Energy dispersive X-ray analysis on the layer have shown it is Bi rich. The separation from the Bi layer to the bottom of the nanocrystals on top is consistent with the implantation range of Bi species in a-Al2O3. As the laser energy density increases, the implantation range has been measured to increase. The early stages of the Bi growth have been analyzed in order to determine how the Bi implanted layer develops.

Malignant disease in peptic ulcer surgery patients after long term follow-up: A cohort study of 1992 patients

AIMS

To assess the effect of previous peptic ulcer surgery on subsequent malignant events, in particular in relation to previous vagotomy, a historical cohort study was conducted.

METHODS

All patients undergoing surgery for peptic ulcer disease with accurate follow-up data at a large peptic ulcer clinic in the Western Infirmary, Glasgow, from 1965 to 1983 were assessed. All cancer events and specific cancer events (gastric, bronchial, laryngeal, colorectal, bladder, breast, prostate, pancreas, kidney, oesophageal cancers) were determined as outcome measures and expressed as standardised incidence ratio (SIR).

RESULTS

Vagotomy and drainage accounted for 67% of all procedures for peptic ulcer disease. Eighty-three percent were habitual smokers. For all peptic ulcer surgery patients, the SIR for all cancer events was 0.86. For specific cancers, the SIRs were bronchial cancer (SIR 1.13); laryngeal cancer (SIR 2.17), colorectal cancer (SIR 0.67). For vagotomised patients the risk of gastric cancer was significantly elevated (SIR 1.50).

CONCLUSIONS

An excess of cancers attributable to smoking have been found in peptic ulcer surgery patients. Vagotomised patients have a higher risk of gastric cancer after long term follow-up. This finding may have implications for screening and the safety of long term acid suppression with agents such as proton pump inhibitors.

A comparison of the anatomic distribution of cutaneous melanoma in two populations with different levels of sunlight: the west of Scotland and Queensland, Australia 1982-2001

To explore whether the anatomic distribution of melanoma differs with ambient sunlight levels, we compared age- and site-specific melanoma incidence in two genetically similar populations from different geographic regions. We ascertained all new cases of invasive cutaneous melanoma in the west of Scotland and Queensland 1982-2001. Melanoma incidence was calculated for four anatomic regions (head and neck, trunk, upper and lower limbs), standardized to the European population and adjusted for relative surface area of each site. Highest rates among males aged <40 years and 40-59 years were observed on the trunk, but on the upper limbs among Queensland females and lower limbs among Scottish females. After age 60, melanoma rates were highest on the head and neck in both sexes. In both sexes and at all ages, lower limb melanomas were more common in Scotland than expected from the Queensland population. These analyses indicate that while the overall distribution of melanoma is similar in populations with different levels of ambient sunlight, important differences remain. Identifying the causes of these differences is likely to provide better understanding of how sunlight causes melanoma.

Comparison of breast cancer mortality rates with those of ovarian and colorectal carcinoma

Background

Traditional survival curves cannot easily be used to predict outcome for an individual patient on a year-to-year basis. This difficulty is partly overcome by yearly mortality analysis. This method was employed to analyse long-term follow-up of three cancers: colorectal, ovarian and breast cancer.

Methods

The study used prospectively collected cancer registry data from geographically defined regions in Scotland. Cohort sizes were 7196 patients with breast cancer, 3200 with colorectal cancer and 1866 with ovarian cancer. Follow-up extended to 23 years.

Results

Two distinct patterns of mortality emerged. Mortality rates for ovarian and colorectal cancer were initially high (41 and 21 per cent) but decreased rapidly; by 10 years patients had either died or were cured. The influence of stage diminished with follow-up. Breast cancer mortality was lower than that of colorectal or ovarian cancer, but remained raised in comparison to the general population throughout follow-up. The influence of breast cancer size reduced with follow-up, whereas that of nodal status persisted.

Conclusion

Patients with breast cancer live at increased risk of death to the end of follow-up, supporting the concept of dormancy in breast cancer biology. This was not observed with colorectal or ovarian cancer.

The natural history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the USA, and it remains one of the few diseases that continues to increase its numbers. The development and progression of COPD can vary dramatically between individuals. A low level of lung function remains the cornerstone of COPD diagnosis and is a key predictor of prognosis. Lung function, however, is not the only factor in determining morbidity and mortality related to COPD, with factors such as body mass index, exercise capability and comorbid disease being important predictors of poor outcomes. Exacerbations of COPD are additional important indicators of both quality of life and outcomes in COPD patients. Definitions of exacerbations can vary, ranging from an increase in symptoms to COPD-related hospitalisations and death. COPD exacerbations are more common in patients with lower levels of lung function and may lead to more rapid declines in lung function. Better understanding of the natural history of COPD may lead to better definitions of specific COPD phenotypes, better interventions and improved outcomes.

Stomatal conductance is a key parameter to assess limitations to photosynthesis and growth potential in barley genotypes

Fourteen genotypes of barley were compared for response to salinity by monitoring the parameters gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence. We present relationships between stomatal conductance (gs) gas exchange chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and aboveground dry matter (AGDM). We found that genetic variability provided a continuum of data for gs across control and saline conditions. We used this continuum of gs values to test the overall relationships between gs and net photosynthesis (A), leaf internal CO2 concentration (Ci), actual quantum yield of PSII electron transport (PhiPSII), relative electron yield over net CO2 assimilation rate (ETR/A), and AGDM. The relationship between gs and A was highly significant (P < 0.0001) for both control and saline treatments, while correlations between gs and Ci, and Ci and A were significant only under control conditions. Unexpectedly, we found positive correlations between gs and PhiPSII (P < 0.0001) for both conditions. A comparison between relationships of gs and A, and gs and PhiPSII seemed to indicate a possible acclimation to salinity at the chloroplastic level. Finally, the relationships between gs and ETR/A were exceptionally strong for both growing conditions (P < 0.0001) indicating that, as gs values were negatively affected in barley by genetics and salinity as main or interactive effects, there was a progressive increase in photorespiration in barley. Overall, we found that stomatal conductance was a key parameter in the study of barley responses to limiting situations for photosynthesis. We also found a strong relationship between AGDM and gs regardless of growing conditions and genotypes. For breeding evaluations to select barley genotypes for salinity tolerance, it may be possible to replace all measurements of gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence by the simple use of a porometer.