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Proietti M, Romiti GF, Vitolo M, Harrison SL, Lane DA, Fauchier L, Marin F, Näbauer M, Potpara TS, Dan GA, Maggioni AP, Cesari M, Boriani G, Lip GYH, Ekmekçiu U, Paparisto V, Tase M, Gjergo H, Dragoti J, Goda A, Ciutea M, Ahadi N, el Husseini Z, Raepers M, Leroy J, Haushan P, Jourdan A, Lepiece C, Desteghe L, Vijgen J, Koopman P, Van Genechten G, Heidbuchel H, Boussy T, De Coninck M, Van Eeckhoutte H, Bouckaert N, Friart A, Boreux J, Arend C, Evrard P, Stefan L, Hoffer E, Herzet J, Massoz M, Celentano C, Sprynger M, Pierard L, Melon P, Van Hauwaert B, Kuppens C, Faes D, Van Lier D, Van Dorpe A, Gerardy A, Deceuninck O, Xhaet O, Dormal F, Ballant E, Blommaert D, Yakova D, Hristov M, Yncheva T, Stancheva N, Tisheva S, Tokmakova M, Nikolov F, Gencheva D, Shalganov T, Kunev B, Stoyanov M, Marchov D, Gelev V, Traykov V, Kisheva A, Tsvyatkov H, Shtereva R, Bakalska-Georgieva S, Slavcheva S, Yotov Y, Kubíčková M, Marni Joensen A, Gammelmark A, Hvilsted Rasmussen L, Dinesen P, Riahi S, Krogh Venø S, Sorensen B, Korsgaard A, Andersen K, Fragtrup Hellum C, Svenningsen A, Nyvad O, Wiggers P, May O, Aarup A, Graversen B, Jensen L, Andersen M, Svejgaard M, Vester S, Hansen S, Lynggaard V, Ciudad M, Vettus R, Muda P, Maestre A, Castaño S, Cheggour S, Poulard J, Mouquet V, Leparrée S, Bouet J, Taieb J, Doucy A, Duquenne H, Furber A, Dupuis J, Rautureau J, Font M, Damiano P, Lacrimini M, Abalea J, Boismal S, Menez T, Mansourati J, Range G, Gorka H, Laure C, Vassalière C, Elbaz N, Lellouche N, Djouadi K, Roubille F, Dietz D, Davy J, Granier M, Winum P, Leperchois-Jacquey C, Kassim H, Marijon E, Le Heuzey J, Fedida J, Maupain C, Himbert C, Gandjbakhch E, Hidden-Lucet F, Duthoit G, Badenco N, Chastre T, Waintraub X, Oudihat M, Lacoste J, Stephan C, Bader H, Delarche N, Giry L, Arnaud D, Lopez C, Boury F, Brunello I, Lefèvre M, Mingam R, Haissaguerre M, Le Bidan M, Pavin D, Le Moal V, Leclercq C, Piot O, Beitar T, Martel I, Schmid A, Sadki N, Romeyer-Bouchard C, Da Costa A, Arnault I, Boyer M, Piat C, Fauchier L, Lozance N, Nastevska S, Doneva A, Fortomaroska Milevska B, Sheshoski B, Petroska K, Taneska N, Bakrecheski N, Lazarovska K, Jovevska S, Ristovski V, Antovski A, Lazarova E, Kotlar I, Taleski J, Poposka L, Kedev S, Zlatanovik N, Jordanova S, Bajraktarova Proseva T, Doncovska S, Maisuradze D, Esakia A, Sagirashvili E, Lartsuliani K, Natelashvili N, Gumberidze N, Gvenetadze R, Etsadashvili K, Gotonelia N, Kuridze N, Papiashvili G, Menabde I, Glöggler S, Napp A, Lebherz C, Romero H, Schmitz K, Berger M, Zink M, Köster S, Sachse J, Vonderhagen E, Soiron G, Mischke K, Reith R, Schneider M, Rieker W, Boscher D, Taschareck A, Beer A, Oster D, Ritter O, Adamczewski J, Walter S, Frommhold A, Luckner E, Richter J, Schellner M, Landgraf S, Bartholome S, Naumann R, Schoeler J, Westermeier D, William F, Wilhelm K, Maerkl M, Oekinghaus R, Denart M, Kriete M, Tebbe U, Scheibner T, Gruber M, Gerlach A, Beckendorf C, Anneken L, Arnold M, Lengerer S, Bal Z, Uecker C, Förtsch H, Fechner S, Mages V, Martens E, Methe H, Schmidt T, Schaeffer B, Hoffmann B, Moser J, Heitmann K, Willems S, Willems S, Klaus C, Lange I, Durak M, Esen E, Mibach F, Mibach H, Utech A, Gabelmann M, Stumm R, Ländle V, Gartner C, Goerg C, Kaul N, Messer S, Burkhardt D, Sander C, Orthen R, Kaes S, Baumer A, Dodos F, Barth A, Schaeffer G, Gaertner J, Winkler J, Fahrig A, Aring J, Wenzel I, Steiner S, Kliesch A, Kratz E, Winter K, Schneider P, Haag A, Mutscher I, Bosch R, Taggeselle J, Meixner S, Schnabel A, Shamalla A, Hötz H, Korinth A, Rheinert C, Mehltretter G, Schön B, Schön N, Starflinger A, Englmann E, Baytok G, Laschinger T, Ritscher G, Gerth A, Dechering D, Eckardt L, Kuhlmann M, Proskynitopoulos N, Brunn J, Foth K, Axthelm C, Hohensee H, Eberhard K, Turbanisch S, Hassler N, Koestler A, Stenzel G, Kschiwan D, Schwefer M, Neiner S, Hettwer S, Haeussler-Schuchardt M, Degenhardt R, Sennhenn S, Steiner S, Brendel M, Stoehr A, Widjaja W, Loehndorf S, Logemann A, Hoskamp J, Grundt J, Block M, Ulrych R, Reithmeier A, Panagopoulos V, Martignani C, Bernucci D, Fantecchi E, Diemberger I, Ziacchi M, Biffi M, Cimaglia P, Frisoni J, Boriani G, Giannini I, Boni S, Fumagalli S, Pupo S, Di Chiara A, Mirone P, Fantecchi E, Boriani G, Pesce F, Zoccali C, Malavasi VL, Mussagaliyeva A, Ahyt B, Salihova Z, Koshum-Bayeva K, Kerimkulova A, Bairamukova A, Mirrakhimov E, Lurina B, Zuzans R, Jegere S, Mintale I, Kupics K, Jubele K, Erglis A, Kalejs O, Vanhear K, Burg M, Cachia M, Abela E, Warwicker S, Tabone T, Xuereb R, Asanovic D, Drakalovic D, Vukmirovic M, Pavlovic N, Music L, Bulatovic N, Boskovic A, Uiterwaal H, Bijsterveld N, De Groot J, Neefs J, van den Berg N, Piersma F, Wilde A, Hagens V, Van Es J, Van Opstal J, Van Rennes B, Verheij H, Breukers W, Tjeerdsma G, Nijmeijer R, Wegink D, Binnema R, Said S, Erküner Ö, Philippens S, van Doorn W, Crijns H, Szili-Torok T, Bhagwandien R, Janse P, Muskens A, van Eck M, Gevers R, van der Ven N, Duygun A, Rahel B, Meeder J, Vold A, Holst Hansen C, Engset I, Atar D, Dyduch-Fejklowicz B, Koba E, Cichocka M, Sokal A, Kubicius A, Pruchniewicz E, Kowalik-Sztylc A, Czapla W, Mróz I, Kozlowski M, Pawlowski T, Tendera M, Winiarska-Filipek A, Fidyk A, Slowikowski A, Haberka M, Lachor-Broda M, Biedron M, Gasior Z, Kołodziej M, Janion M, Gorczyca-Michta I, Wozakowska-Kaplon B, Stasiak M, Jakubowski P, Ciurus T, Drozdz J, Simiera M, Zajac P, Wcislo T, Zycinski P, Kasprzak J, Olejnik A, Harc-Dyl E, Miarka J, Pasieka M, Ziemińska-Łuć M, Bujak W, Śliwiński A, Grech A, Morka J, Petrykowska K, Prasał M, Hordyński G, Feusette P, Lipski P, Wester A, Streb W, Romanek J, Woźniak P, Chlebuś M, Szafarz P, Stanik W, Zakrzewski M, Kaźmierczak J, Przybylska A, Skorek E, Błaszczyk H, Stępień M, Szabowski S, Krysiak W, Szymańska M, Karasiński J, Blicharz J, Skura M, Hałas K, Michalczyk L, Orski Z, Krzyżanowski K, Skrobowski A, Zieliński L, Tomaszewska-Kiecana M, Dłużniewski M, Kiliszek M, Peller M, Budnik M, Balsam P, Opolski G, Tymińska A, Ozierański K, Wancerz A, Borowiec A, Majos E, Dabrowski R, Szwed H, Musialik-Lydka A, Leopold-Jadczyk A, Jedrzejczyk-Patej E, Koziel M, Lenarczyk R, Mazurek M, Kalarus Z, Krzemien-Wolska K, Starosta P, Nowalany-Kozielska E, Orzechowska A, Szpot M, Staszel M, Almeida S, Pereira H, Brandão Alves L, Miranda R, Ribeiro L, Costa F, Morgado F, Carmo P, Galvao Santos P, Bernardo R, Adragão P, Ferreira da Silva G, Peres M, Alves M, Leal M, Cordeiro A, Magalhães P, Fontes P, Leão S, Delgado A, Costa A, Marmelo B, Rodrigues B, Moreira D, Santos J, Santos L, Terchet A, Darabantiu D, Mercea S, Turcin Halka V, Pop Moldovan A, Gabor A, Doka B, Catanescu G, Rus H, Oboroceanu L, Bobescu E, Popescu R, Dan A, Buzea A, Daha I, Dan G, Neuhoff I, Baluta M, Ploesteanu R, Dumitrache N, Vintila M, Daraban A, Japie C, Badila E, Tewelde H, Hostiuc M, Frunza S, Tintea E, Bartos D, Ciobanu A, Popescu I, Toma N, Gherghinescu C, Cretu D, Patrascu N, Stoicescu C, Udroiu C, Bicescu G, Vintila V, Vinereanu D, Cinteza M, Rimbas R, Grecu M, Cozma A, Boros F, Ille M, Tica O, Tor R, Corina A, Jeewooth A, Maria B, Georgiana C, Natalia C, Alin D, Dinu-Andrei D, Livia M, Daniela R, Larisa R, Umaar S, Tamara T, Ioachim Popescu M, Nistor D, Sus I, Coborosanu O, Alina-Ramona N, Dan R, Petrescu L, Ionescu G, Popescu I, Vacarescu C, Goanta E, Mangea M, Ionac A, Mornos C, Cozma D, Pescariu S, Solodovnicova E, Soldatova I, Shutova J, Tjuleneva L, Zubova T, Uskov V, Obukhov D, Rusanova G, Soldatova I, Isakova N, Odinsova S, Arhipova T, Kazakevich E, Serdechnaya E, Zavyalova O, Novikova T, Riabaia I, Zhigalov S, Drozdova E, Luchkina I, Monogarova Y, Hegya D, Rodionova L, Rodionova L, Nevzorova V, Soldatova I, Lusanova O, Arandjelovic A, Toncev D, Milanov M, Sekularac N, Zdravkovic M, Hinic S, Dimkovic S, Acimovic T, Saric J, Polovina M, Potpara T, Vujisic-Tesic B, Nedeljkovic M, Zlatar M, Asanin M, Vasic V, Popovic Z, Djikic D, Sipic M, Peric V, Dejanovic B, Milosevic N, Stevanovic A, Andric A, Pencic B, Pavlovic-Kleut M, Celic V, Pavlovic M, Petrovic M, Vuleta M, Petrovic N, Simovic S, Savovic Z, Milanov S, Davidovic G, Iric-Cupic V, Simonovic D, Stojanovic M, Stojanovic S, Mitic V, Ilic V, Petrovic D, Deljanin Ilic M, Ilic S, Stoickov V, Markovic S, Kovacevic S, García Fernandez A, Perez Cabeza A, Anguita M, Tercedor Sanchez L, Mau E, Loayssa J, Ayarra M, Carpintero M, Roldán Rabadan I, Leal M, Gil Ortega M, Tello Montoliu A, Orenes Piñero E, Manzano Fernández S, Marín F, Romero Aniorte A, Veliz Martínez A, Quintana Giner M, Ballesteros G, Palacio M, Alcalde O, García-Bolao I, Bertomeu Gonzalez V, Otero-Raviña F, García Seara J, Gonzalez Juanatey J, Dayal N, Maziarski P, Gentil-Baron P, Shah D, Koç M, Onrat E, Dural IE, Yilmaz K, Özin B, Tan Kurklu S, Atmaca Y, Canpolat U, Tokgozoglu L, Dolu AK, Demirtas B, Sahin D, Ozcan Celebi O, Diker E, Gagirci G, Turk UO, Ari H, Polat N, Toprak N, Sucu M, Akin Serdar O, Taha Alper A, Kepez A, Yuksel Y, Uzunselvi A, Yuksel S, Sahin M, Kayapinar O, Ozcan T, Kaya H, Yilmaz MB, Kutlu M, Demir M, Gibbs C, Kaminskiene S, Bryce M, Skinner A, Belcher G, Hunt J, Stancombe L, Holbrook B, Peters C, Tettersell S, Shantsila A, Lane D, Senoo K, Proietti M, Russell K, Domingos P, Hussain S, Partridge J, Haynes R, Bahadur S, Brown R, McMahon S, Y H Lip G, McDonald J, Balachandran K, Singh R, Garg S, Desai H, Davies K, Goddard W, Galasko G, Rahman I, Chua Y, Payne O, Preston S, Brennan O, Pedley L, Whiteside C, Dickinson C, Brown J, Jones K, Benham L, Brady R, Buchanan L, Ashton A, Crowther H, Fairlamb H, Thornthwaite S, Relph C, McSkeane A, Poultney U, Kelsall N, Rice P, Wilson T, Wrigley M, Kaba R, Patel T, Young E, Law J, Runnett C, Thomas H, McKie H, Fuller J, Pick S, Sharp A, Hunt A, Thorpe K, Hardman C, Cusack E, Adams L, Hough M, Keenan S, Bowring A, Watts J, Zaman J, Goffin K, Nutt H, Beerachee Y, Featherstone J, Mills C, Pearson J, Stephenson L, Grant S, Wilson A, Hawksworth C, Alam I, Robinson M, Ryan S, Egdell R, Gibson E, Holland M, Leonard D, Mishra B, Ahmad S, Randall H, Hill J, Reid L, George M, McKinley S, Brockway L, Milligan W, Sobolewska J, Muir J, Tuckis L, Winstanley L, Jacob P, Kaye S, Morby L, Jan A, Sewell T, Boos C, Wadams B, Cope C, Jefferey P, Andrews N, Getty A, Suttling A, Turner C, Hudson K, Austin R, Howe S, Iqbal R, Gandhi N, Brophy K, Mirza P, Willard E, Collins S, Ndlovu N, Subkovas E, Karthikeyan V, Waggett L, Wood A, Bolger A, Stockport J, Evans L, Harman E, Starling J, Williams L, Saul V, Sinha M, Bell L, Tudgay S, Kemp S, Brown J, Frost L, Ingram T, Loughlin A, Adams C, Adams M, Hurford F, Owen C, Miller C, Donaldson D, Tivenan H, Button H, Nasser A, Jhagra O, Stidolph B, Brown C, Livingstone C, Duffy M, Madgwick P, Roberts P, Greenwood E, Fletcher L, Beveridge M, Earles S, McKenzie D, Beacock D, Dayer M, Seddon M, Greenwell D, Luxton F, Venn F, Mills H, Rewbury J, James K, Roberts K, Tonks L, Felmeden D, Taggu W, Summerhayes A, Hughes D, Sutton J, Felmeden L, Khan M, Walker E, Norris L, O’Donohoe L, Mozid A, Dymond H, Lloyd-Jones H, Saunders G, Simmons D, Coles D, Cotterill D, Beech S, Kidd S, Wrigley B, Petkar S, Smallwood A, Jones R, Radford E, Milgate S, Metherell S, Cottam V, Buckley C, Broadley A, Wood D, Allison J, Rennie K, Balian L, Howard L, Pippard L, Board S, Pitt-Kerby T. Epidemiology and impact of frailty in patients with atrial fibrillation in Europe. Age Ageing 2022; 51:6670566. [PMID: 35997262 DOI: 10.1093/ageing/afac192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2022] [Revised: 06/08/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Frailty is a medical syndrome characterised by reduced physiological reserve and increased vulnerability to stressors. Data regarding the relationship between frailty and atrial fibrillation (AF) are still inconsistent. OBJECTIVES We aim to perform a comprehensive evaluation of frailty in a large European cohort of AF patients. METHODS A 40-item frailty index (FI) was built according to the accumulation of deficits model in the AF patients enrolled in the ESC-EHRA EORP-AF General Long-Term Registry. Association of baseline characteristics, clinical management, quality of life, healthcare resources use and risk of outcomes with frailty was examined. RESULTS Among 10,177 patients [mean age (standard deviation) 69.0 (11.4) years, 4,103 (40.3%) females], 6,066 (59.6%) were pre-frail and 2,172 (21.3%) were frail, whereas only 1,939 (19.1%) were considered robust. Baseline thromboembolic and bleeding risks were independently associated with increasing FI. Frail patients with AF were less likely to be treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs) (odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.55-0.89), especially with non-vitamin K antagonist OACs and managed with a rhythm control strategy, compared with robust patients. Increasing frailty was associated with a higher risk for all outcomes examined, with a non-linear exponential relationship. The use of OAC was associated with a lower risk of outcomes, except in patients with very/extremely high frailty. CONCLUSIONS In this large cohort of AF patients, there was a high burden of frailty, influencing clinical management and risk of adverse outcomes. The clinical benefit of OAC is maintained in patients with high frailty, but not in very high/extremely frail ones.
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Kouli O, Murray V, Bhatia S, Cambridge WA, Kawka M, Shafi S, Knight SR, Kamarajah SK, McLean KA, Glasbey JC, Khaw RA, Ahmed W, Akhbari M, Baker D, Borakati A, Mills E, Thavayogan R, Yasin I, Raubenheimer K, Ridley W, Sarrami M, Zhang G, Egoroff N, Pockney P, Richards T, Bhangu A, Creagh-Brown B, Edwards M, Harrison EM, Lee M, Nepogodiev D, Pinkney T, Pearse R, Smart N, Vohra R, Sohrabi C, Jamieson A, Nguyen M, Rahman A, English C, Tincknell L, Kakodkar P, Kwek I, Punjabi N, Burns J, Varghese S, Erotocritou M, McGuckin S, Vayalapra S, Dominguez E, Moneim J, Salehi M, Tan HL, Yoong A, Zhu L, Seale B, Nowinka Z, Patel N, Chrisp B, Harris J, Maleyko I, Muneeb F, Gough M, James CE, Skan O, Chowdhury A, Rebuffa N, Khan H, Down B, Fatimah Hussain Q, Adams M, Bailey A, Cullen G, Fu YXJ, McClement B, Taylor A, Aitken S, Bachelet B, Brousse de Gersigny J, Chang C, Khehra B, Lahoud N, Lee Solano M, Louca M, Rozenbroek P, Rozitis E, Agbinya N, Anderson E, Arwi G, Barry I, Batchelor C, Chong T, Choo LY, Clark L, Daniels M, Goh J, Handa A, Hanna J, Huynh L, Jeon A, Kanbour A, Lee A, Lee J, Lee T, Leigh J, Ly D, McGregor F, Moss J, Nejatian M, O'Loughlin E, Ramos I, Sanchez B, Shrivathsa A, Sincari A, Sobhi S, Swart R, Trimboli J, Wignall P, Bourke E, Chong A, Clayton S, Dawson A, Hardy E, Iqbal R, Le L, Mao S, Marinelli I, Metcalfe H, Panicker D, R HH, Ridgway S, Tan HH, Thong S, Van M, Woon S, Woon-Shoo-Tong XS, Yu S, Ali K, Chee J, Chiu C, Chow YW, Duller A, Nagappan P, Ng S, Selvanathan M, Sheridan C, Temple M, Do JE, Dudi-Venkata NN, Humphries E, Li L, Mansour LT, Massy-Westropp C, Fang B, Farbood K, Hong H, Huang Y, Joan M, Koh C, Liu YHA, Mahajan T, Muller E, Park R, Tanudisastro M, Wu JJG, Chopra P, Giang S, Radcliffe S, Thach P, Wallace D, Wilkes A, Chinta SH, Li J, Phan J, Rahman F, Segaran A, Shannon J, Zhang M, Adams N, Bonte A, Choudhry A, Colterjohn N, Croyle JA, Donohue J, Feighery A, Keane A, McNamara D, Munir K, Roche D, Sabnani R, Seligman D, Sharma S, Stickney Z, Suchy H, Tan R, Yordi S, Ahmed I, Aranha M, El Sabawy D, Garwood P, Harnett M, Holohan R, Howard R, Kayyal Y, Krakoski N, Lupo M, McGilberry W, Nepon H, Scoleri Y, Urbina C, Ahmad Fuad MF, Ahmed O, Jaswantlal D, Kelly E, Khan MHT, Naidu D, Neo WX, O'Neill R, Sugrue M, Abbas JD, Abdul-Fattah S, Azlan A, Barry K, Idris NS, Kaka N, Mc Dermott D, Mohammad Nasir MN, Mozo M, Rehal A, Shaikh Yousef M, Wong RH, Curran E, Gardner M, Hogan A, Julka R, Lasser G, Ní Chorráin N, Ting J, Browne R, George S, Janjua Z, Leung Shing V, Megally M, Murphy S, Ravenscroft L, Vedadi A, Vyas V, Bryan A, Sheikh A, Ubhi J, Vannelli K, Vawda A, Adeusi L, Doherty C, Fitzgerald C, Gallagher H, Gill P, Hamza H, Hogan M, Kelly S, Larry J, Lynch P, Mazeni NA, O'Connell R, O'Loghlin R, Singh K, Abbas Syed R, Ali A, Alkandari B, Arnold A, Arora E, Azam R, Breathnach C, Cheema J, Compton M, Curran S, Elliott JA, Jayasamraj O, Mohammed N, Noone A, Pal A, Pandey S, Quinn P, Sheridan R, Siew L, Tan EP, Tio SW, Toh VTR, Walsh M, Yap C, Yassa J, Young T, Agarwal N, Almoosawy SA, Bowen K, Bruce D, Connachan R, Cook A, Daniell A, Elliott M, Fung HKF, Irving A, Laurie S, Lee YJ, Lim ZX, Maddineni S, McClenaghan RE, Muthuganesan V, Ravichandran P, Roberts N, Shaji S, Solt S, Toshney E, Arnold C, Baker O, Belais F, Bojanic C, Byrne M, Chau CYC, De Soysa S, Eldridge M, Fairey M, Fearnhead N, Guéroult A, Ho JSY, Joshi K, Kadiyala N, Khalid S, Khan F, Kumar K, Lewis E, Magee J, Manetta-Jones D, Mann S, McKeown L, Mitrofan C, Mohamed T, Monnickendam A, Ng AYKC, Ortu A, Patel M, Pope T, Pressling S, Purohit K, Saji S, Shah Foridi J, Shah R, Siddiqui SS, Surman K, Utukuri M, Varghese A, Williams CYK, Yang JJ, Billson E, Cheah E, Holmes P, Hussain S, Murdock D, Nicholls A, Patel P, Ramana G, Saleki M, Spence H, Thomas D, Yu C, Abousamra M, Brown C, Conti I, Donnelly A, Durand M, French N, Goan R, O'Kane E, Rubinchik P, Gardiner H, Kempf B, Lai YL, Matthews H, Minford E, Rafferty C, Reid C, Sheridan N, Al 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Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. Lancet Digit Health 2022; 4:e520-e531. [PMID: 35750401 DOI: 10.1016/s2589-7500(22)00069-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2021] [Revised: 01/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications. METHODS We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC). FINDINGS In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]). INTERPRETATION In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required. FUNDING British Journal of Surgery Society.
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