Effectiveness of Antidepressants in Combination with Psychotherapy

BACKGROUND

Consensus-guidelines for prescribing antidepressants recommend that clinicians should be vigilant to match antidepressants to patient's medical history but provide no specific advice on which antidepressant is best for a given medical history.

AIMS OF THE STUDY

For patients with major depression who are in psychotherapy, this study provides an empirically derived guideline for prescribing antidepressant medications that fit patients' medical history.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational, cohort study analyzed a large insurance database of 3,678,082 patients. Data was obtained from healthcare providers in the U.S. between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2018. These patients had 10,221,145 episodes of antidepressant treatments. This study reports the remission rates for the 14 most commonly prescribed single antidepressants (amitriptyline, bupropion, citalopram, desvenlafaxine, doxepin, duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, mirtazapine, nortriptyline, paroxetine, sertraline, trazodone, and venlafaxine) and a category named "Other" (other antidepressants/combination of antidepressants). The study used robust LASSO regressions to identify factors that affected remission rate and clinicians' selection of antidepressants. The selection bias in observational data was removed through stratification. We organized the data into 16,770 subgroups, of at least 100 cases, using the combination of the largest factors that affected remission and selection bias. This paper reports on 2,467 subgroups of patients who had received psychotherapy.

RESULTS

We found large, and statistically significant, differences in remission rates within subgroups of patients. Remission rates for sertraline ranged from 4.5% to 77.86%, for fluoxetine from 2.86% to 77.78%, for venlafaxine from 5.07% to 76.44%, for bupropion from 0.5% to 64.63%, for desvenlafaxine from 1.59% to 75%, for duloxetine from 3.77% to 75%, for paroxetine from 6.48% to 68.79%, for escitalopram from 1.85% to 65%, and for citalopram from 4.67% to 76.23%. Clearly these medications are ideal for patients in some subgroups but not others. If patients are matched to the subgroups, clinicians can prescribe the medication that works best in the subgroup. Some medications (amitriptyline, doxepin, nortriptyline, and trazodone) always had remission rates below 11% and therefore were not suitable as single antidepressant therapy for any of the subgroups.

DISCUSSIONS

This study provides an opportunity for clinicians to identify an optimal antidepressant for their patients, before they engage in repeated trials of antidepressants.

IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH CARE PROVISION AND USE

To facilitate the matching of patients to the most effective antidepressants, this study provides access to a free, non-commercial, decision aid at http://MeAgainMeds.com.

IMPLICATIONS FOR HEALTH POLICIES

 Policymakers should evaluate how study findings can be made available through fragmented electronic health records at point-of-care. Alternatively, policymakers can put in place an AI system that recommends antidepressants to patients online, at home, and encourages them to bring the recommendation to their clinicians at their next visit.

IMPLICATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

 Future research could investigate (i) the effectiveness of our recommendations in changing clinical practice, (ii) increasing remission of depression symptoms, and (iii) reducing cost of care. These studies need to be prospective but pragmatic. It is unlikely random clinical trials can address the large number of factors that affect remission.

The Gender Self-Report: A multidimensional gender characterization tool for gender-diverse and cisgender youth and adults

Gender identity is a core component of human experience, critical to account for in broad health, development, psychosocial research, and clinical practice. Yet, the psychometric characterization of gender has been impeded due to challenges in modeling the myriad gender self-descriptors, statistical power limitations related to multigroup analyses, and equity-related concerns regarding the accessibility of complex gender terminology. Therefore, this initiative employed an iterative multi-community-driven process to develop the Gender Self-Report (GSR), a multidimensional gender characterization tool, accessible to youth and adults, nonautistic and autistic people, and gender-diverse and cisgender individuals. In Study 1, the GSR was administered to 1,654 individuals, sampled through seven diversified recruitments to be representative across age (10-77 years), gender and sexuality diversity (∼33% each gender diverse, cisgender sexual minority, cisgender heterosexual), and autism status (> 33% autistic). A random half-split subsample was subjected to exploratory factor analytics, followed by confirmatory analytics in the full sample. Two stable factors emerged: Nonbinary Gender Diversity and Female-Male Continuum (FMC). FMC was transformed to Binary Gender Diversity based on designated sex at birth to reduce collinearity with designated sex at birth. Differential item functioning by age and autism status was employed to reduce item-response bias. Factors were internally reliable. Study 2 demonstrated the construct, convergent, and ecological validity of GSR factors. Of the 30 hypothesized validation comparisons, 26 were confirmed. The GSR provides a community-developed gender advocacy tool with 30 self-report items that avoid complex gender-related "insider" language and characterize diverse populations across continuous multidimensional binary and nonbinary gender traits. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Social and Medical Determinants of Diabetes: A Time-Constrained Multiple Mediator Analysis

Background A number of studies have shown an association between social determinants of health and the emergence of obesity and diabetes, but whether the relationship is causal is not clear. Objective To test whether social, environmental, and medical determinants directly or indirectly affect population-level diabetes prevalence after controlling for mediator-mediator interactions. Methods Data were obtained from the CDC and supplemented with nine other data sources for 3,109 US counties. The dependent variable was the prevalence of diabetes in 2017. Independent variables were a given county's 30 social, environmental, and medical characteristics in 2015 and 2016. A network multiple mediation analysis was conducted. First, we used Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression to relate the 2017 diabetes rate in each county to 30 predictors measured in 2016, identifying statistically significant and robust predictors as the mediators within the network model and as direct determinants of 2017 diabetes. Second, each of the direct causes of diabetes was taken as a new response variable and LASSO-regressed on the same 30 independent variables measured in 2015, identifying the indirect (mediated) causes of diabetes. Subsequently, these direct and indirect predictors were used to construct a network model. The completed network was then employed to estimate the direct and mediated impact of variables on diabetes. Results For 2017 diabetes rates, 63% of the variation was explained by five variables measured in 2016: the percentage of residents who were (1) obese, (2) African American, (3) physically inactive, (4) in poor health condition, and (5) had a history of diabetes. These five direct predictors, measured in 2016, mediated the effect of indirect variables measured in 2015, including the percentage of residents who were (1) Hispanic, (2) physically distressed, (3) smokers, (4) living with children in poverty, (5) experiencing limited access to healthy foods, and (6) had low income. Conclusion All of the direct predictors of diabetes prevalence, except the percentage of residents who were African American, were medical conditions potentially influenced by lifestyles. Counties characterized by higher levels of obesity, inactivity, and poor health conditions exhibited increased diabetes rates in the following year. The impact of social determinants of illness, such as low income, children in poverty, and limited access to healthy foods, had an indirect effect on the health of residents and, consequently, increased the prevalence of diabetes.

Impact of Political Leaning on COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy: A Network-Based Multiple Mediation Analysis

Prior studies have shown that political affiliation affected COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. This study re-examined the data to see if these findings hold after controlling for alternative explanations. The dependent variable in the study was COVID-19 vaccination rates in 3,109 counties in the United States as of April 2022. The study examined 36 possible alternative explanations for vaccine hesitancy, including demographic, social, economic, environmental, and medical variables known to affect vaccine hesitancy. County-level political affiliation was measured as a percent of voters in the county who were affiliated with Democratic or Republican political parties. Data were analyzed using a temporally constrained multiple mediation network, which allowed for the identification of both direct and indirect predictors of vaccination rates. Despite controlling for alternative explanations of hesitancy, there was a statistically significant relationship between the percentage of Republican supporters and rates of vaccine hesitancy. The higher the Republican affiliation, the lower the vaccination rates. It is possible that the Republican Party has played an organizing role in encouraging vaccine hesitancy and patient harm.

Selecting Antidepressants Based on Medical History and Stress Mechanism

Purpose At present, clinicians typically prescribe antidepressants based on the widely accepted "serotonin hypothesis." This study explores an alternative mechanism, the stress mechanism, for selecting antidepressants based on patients' medical history. Methods This study investigated clinicians' prescribing patterns for the 15 most common antidepressants, including amitriptyline, bupropion, citalopram, desvenlafaxine, doxepin, duloxetine, escitalopram, fluoxetine, mirtazapine, nortriptyline, paroxetine, ropinirole, sertraline, trazodone, and Venlafaxine. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was used to identify factors that affect the remission of depression symptoms after receiving an antidepressant. Results The study found that a wide range of factors influenced the propensity of clinicians to prescribe antidepressants, with the number of predictors ranging from 51 to 206 variables. The prevalence of prescribing an antidepressant ranged from 0.5% for doxepin to 24% for the combination of more than one antidepressant. The area under the receiver operating curves (AROC) ranged from 77.2% for venlafaxine to 90.5% for ropinirole, with an average AROC of 82% for predicting the propensity of medications. A variety of diagnoses and prior medications affected remission, in agreement that the central mechanism for the impact of medications on the brain is through stress reduction. For example, psychotherapy, whether done individually or in a group, whether done for a short or long time, and whether done with evaluation/assessment or not, had an impact on remission. Specifically, teenagers and octogenarians were less likely to benefit from bupropion, citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine, and sertraline compared to patients between 40 and 65 years old. The findings of this study suggest that considering a patient's medical history and individual characteristics is crucial for selecting the most effective antidepressant treatment. Conclusions Many studies have raised doubt about the serotonin hypothesis as the central mechanism for depression treatment. The identification of a wide range of predictors for prescribing antidepressants highlights the complexity of depression treatment and the need for individualized approaches that consider patients' comorbidities and previous treatments. The significant impact of comorbidities on the response to treatment makes it improbable that the mechanism of action of antidepressants is solely based on the serotonin hypothesis. It is hard to explain how comorbidities lead to the depletion of serotonin. These findings open up a variety of courses of action for the clinical treatment of depression, each addressing a different source of chronic stress in the brain. Overall, this study contributes to a better understanding of depression treatment and provides valuable insights for clinicians in selecting antidepressants based on patients' medical history.

Predicting 6-month mortality of patients from their medical history: Comparison of multimorbidity index to Deyo-Charlson index

While every disease could affect a patient's prognosis, published studies continue to use indices that include a selective list of diseases to predict prognosis, which may limit its accuracy. This paper compares 6-month mortality predicted by a multimorbidity index (MMI) that relies on all diagnoses to the Deyo version of the Charlson index (DCI), a popular index that utilizes a selective set of diagnoses. In this retrospective cohort study, we used data from the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk national cohort that included 6,082,018 diabetes-free veterans receiving primary care from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. For the MMI, 7805 diagnoses were assigned into 19 body systems, using the likelihood that the disease will increase risk of mortality. The DCI used 17 categories of diseases, classified by clinicians as severe diseases. In predicting 6-month mortality, the cross-validated area under the receiver operating curve for the MMI was 0.828 (95% confidence interval of 0.826-0.829) and for the DCI was 0.749 (95% confidence interval of 0.748-0.750). Using all available diagnoses (MMI) led to a large improvement in accuracy of predicting prognosis of patients than using a selected list of diagnosis (DCI).

Social Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccination Rates: A Time-Constrained Multiple Mediation Analysis

Objective To estimate the multiple direct/indirect effects of social, environmental, and economic factors on COVID-19 vaccination rates (series complete) in the 3109 continental counties in the United States (U.S.). Study design  The dependent variable was the COVID-19 vaccination rates in the U.S. (April 15, 2022). Independent variables were collected from reliable secondary data sources, including the Census and CDC. Independent variables measured at two different time frames were utilized to predict vaccination rates. The number of vaccination sites in a given county was calculated using the geographic information system (GIS) packages as of April 9, 2022. The Internet Archive (Way Back Machine) was used to look up data for historical dates. Methods  A chain of temporally-constrained least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regressions was used to identify direct and indirect effects on vaccination rates. The first regression identified direct predictors of vaccination rates. Next, the direct predictors were set as response variables in subsequent regressions and regressed on variables that occurred before them. These regressions identified additional indirect predictors of vaccination. Finally, both direct and indirect variables were included in a network model. Results  Fifteen variables directly predicted vaccination rates and explained 43% of the variation in vaccination rates in April 2022. In addition, 11 variables indirectly affected vaccination rates, and their influence on vaccination was mediated by direct factors. For example, children in poverty rate mediated the effect of (a) median household income, (b) children in single-parent homes, and (c) income inequality. For another example, median household income mediated the effect of (a) the percentage of residents under the age of 18, (b) the percentage of residents who are Asian, (c) home ownership, and (d) traffic volume in the prior year. Our findings describe not only the direct but also the indirect effect of variables. Conclusions  A diverse set of demographics, social determinants, public health status, and provider characteristics predicted vaccination rates. Vaccination rates change systematically and are affected by the demographic composition and social determinants of illness within the county. One of the merits of our study is that it shows how the direct predictors of vaccination rates could be mediators of the effects of other variables.

Guidelines for Triage of COVID-19 Patients Presenting With Multisystemic Symptoms

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This article describes how multisystemic symptoms, both respiratory and nonrespiratory, can be used to differentiate coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) from other diseases at the point of patient triage in the community. The article also shows how combinations of symptoms could be used to predict the probability of a patient having COVID-19.

METHODS

We first used a scoping literature review to identify symptoms of COVID-19 reported during the first year of the global pandemic. We then surveyed individuals with reported symptoms and recent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results to assess the accuracy of diagnosing COVID-19 from reported symptoms. The scoping literature review, which included 81 scientific articles published by February 2021, identified 7 respiratory, 9 neurological, 4 gastrointestinal, 4 inflammatory, and 5 general symptoms associated with COVID-19 diagnosis. The likelihood ratio associated with each symptom was estimated from sensitivity and specificity of symptoms reported in the literature. A total of 483 individuals were then surveyed to validate the accuracy of predicting COVID-19 diagnosis based on patient symptoms using the likelihood ratios calculated from the literature review. Survey results were weighted to reflect age, gender, and race of the US population. The accuracy of predicting COVID-19 diagnosis from patient-reported symptoms was assessed using area under the receiver operating curve (AROC).

RESULTS

In the community, cough, sore throat, runny nose, dyspnea, and hypoxia, by themselves, were not good predictors of COVID-19 diagnosis. A combination of cough and fever was also a poor predictor of COVID-19 diagnosis (AROC = 0.56). The accuracy of diagnosing COVID-19 based on symptoms was highest when individuals presented with symptoms from different body systems (AROC of 0.74-0.81); the lowest accuracy was when individuals presented with only respiratory symptoms (AROC = 0.48).

CONCLUSIONS

There are no simple rules that clinicians can use to diagnose COVID-19 in the community when diagnostic tests are unavailable or untimely. However, triage of patients to appropriate care and treatment can be improved by reviewing the combinations of certain types of symptoms across body systems.

Order of Occurrence of COVID-19 Symptoms

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 symptoms change after onset-some show early, others later. This article examines whether the order of occurrence of symptoms can improve diagnosis of COVID-19 before test results are available.

METHODS

In total, 483 individuals who completed a COVID-19 test were recruited through Listservs. Participants then completed an online survey regarding their symptoms and test results. The order of symptoms was set according to (a) whether the participant had a "history of the symptom" due to a prior condition; and (b) whether the symptom "occurred first," or prior to, other symptoms of COVID-19. Two LASSO (Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator) regression models were developed. The first model, referred to as "time-invariant," used demographics and symptoms but not the order of symptom occurrence. The second model, referred to as "time-sensitive," used the same data set but included the order of symptom occurrence.

RESULTS

The average cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curve for the time-invariant model was 0.784. The time-sensitive model had an AROC curve of 0.799. The difference between the 2 accuracy levels was statistically significant (α < .05).

CONCLUSION

The order of symptom occurrence made a statistically significant, but small, improvement in the accuracy of the diagnosis of COVID-19.

The Role of Symptom Clusters in Triage of COVID-19 Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

COVID-19 manifests with a broad range of symptoms. This study investigates whether clusters of respiratory, gastrointestinal, or neurological symptoms can be used to diagnose COVID-19.

METHODS

We surveyed symptoms of 483 subjects who had completed COVID-19 laboratory tests in the last 30 days. The survey collected data on demographic characteristics, self-reported symptoms for different types of infections within 14 days of onset of illness, and self-reported COVID-19 test results. Robust LASSO regression was used to create 3 nested models. In all 3 models, the response variable was the COVID-19 test result. In the first model, referred to as the "main effect model," the independent variables were demographic characteristics, history of chronic symptoms, and current symptoms. The second model, referred to as the "hierarchical clustering model," added clusters of variables to the list of independent variables. These clusters were established through hierarchical clustering. The third model, referred to as the "interaction-terms model," also added clusters of variables to the list of independent variables; this time clusters were established through pairwise and triple-way interaction terms. Models were constructed on a randomly selected 80% of the data and accuracy was cross-validated on the remaining 20% of the data. The process was bootstrapped 30 times. Accuracy of the 3 models was measured using the average of the cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs).

RESULTS

In 30 bootstrap samples, the main effect model had an AUROC of 0.78. The hierarchical clustering model had an AUROC of 0.80. The interaction-terms model had an AUROC of 0.81. Both the hierarchical cluster model and the interaction model were significantly different from the main effect model (α = .04). Patients with different races/ethnicities, genders, and ages presented with different symptom clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Using clusters of symptoms, it is possible to more accurately diagnose COVID-19 among symptomatic patients.

Combined Symptom Screening and At-Home Tests for COVID-19

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

At-home rapid antigen tests provide a convenient and expedited resource to learn about severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection status. However, low sensitivity of at-home antigen tests presents a challenge. This study examines the accuracy of at-home tests, when combined with computer-facilitated symptom screening.

METHODS

The study used primary data sources with data collected during 2 phases at different periods (phase 1 and phase 2): one during the period in which the alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 was predominant in the United States and another during the surge of the delta variant. Four hundred sixty-one study participants were included in the analyses from phase 1 and 374 subjects from phase 2. Phase 1 data were used to develop a computerized symptom screening tool, using ordinary logistic regression with interaction terms, which predicted coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results. Phase 2 data were used to validate the accuracy of predicting COVID-19 diagnosis with (1) computerized symptom screening; (2) at-home rapid antigen testing; (3) the combination of both screening methods; and (4) the combination of symptom screening and vaccination status. The McFadden pseudo-R2 was used as a measure of percentage of variation in RT-PCR test results explained by the various screening methods.

RESULTS

The McFadden pseudo-R2 for the first at-home test, the second at-home test, and computerized symptom screening was 0.274, 0.140, and 0.158, respectively. Scores between 0.2 and 0.4 indicated moderate levels of accuracy. The first at-home test had low sensitivity (0.587) and high specificity (0.989). Adding a second at-home test did not improve the sensitivity of the first test. Computerized symptom screening improved the accuracy of the first at-home test (added 0.131 points to sensitivity and 6.9% to pseudo-R2 of the first at-home test). Computerized symptom screening and vaccination status was the most accurate method to screen patients for COVID-19 or an active infection with SARS-CoV-2 in the community (pseudo-R2 = 0.476).

CONCLUSION

Computerized symptom screening could either improve, or in some situations, replace at-home antigen tests for those individuals experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.

Procedure for Organizing a Post-FDA-approval Evaluation of Antidepressants

Purpose: The study reports the construction of a cohort used to study the effectiveness of antidepressants.

Methods: The cohort includes experiences of 3,678,082 patients with depression in the United States on antidepressants between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2018. A total of 10,221,145 antidepressant treatment episodes were analyzed. Patients who had no utilization of health services for at least two years, or who had died, were excluded from the analysis. Follow-up was passive, automatic, and collated from fragmented clinical services of diverse providers.

Results: The average follow-up was 2.93 years, resulting in 15,096,055 person-years of data. The mean age of the cohort was 46.54 years (standard deviation of 17.48) at first prescription of antidepressant, which was also the enrollment event (16.92% were over 65 years), and most were female (69.36%). In 10,221,145 episodes, within the first 100 days of start of the episode, 4,729,372 (46.3%) continued their treatment, 1,306,338 (12.8%) switched to another medication, 3,586,156 (35.1%) discontinued their medication, and 599,279 (5.9%) augmented their treatment.

Conclusions: We present a procedure for constructing a cohort using claims data. A surrogate measure for self-reported symptom remission based on the patterns of use of antidepressants has been proposed to address the absence of outcomes in claims. Future studies can use the procedures described here to organize studies of the comparative effectiveness of antidepressants.

Emerging approaches to multiple chronic condition assessment

Older adults experience a higher prevalence of multiple chronic conditions (MCCs). Establishing the presence and pattern of MCCs in individuals or populations is important for healthcare delivery, research, and policy. This report describes four emerging approaches and discusses their potential applications for enhancing assessment, treatment, and policy for the aging population. The National Institutes of Health convened a 2-day panel workshop of experts in 2018. Four emerging models were identified by the panel, including classification and regression tree (CART), qualifying comorbidity sets (QCS), the multimorbidity index (MMI), and the application of omics to network medicine. Future research into models of multiple chronic condition assessment may improve understanding of the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of older persons.

Differential diagnosis of COVID-19 and influenza

This study uses two existing data sources to examine how patients' symptoms can be used to differentiate COVID-19 from other respiratory diseases. One dataset consisted of 839,288 laboratory-confirmed, symptomatic, COVID-19 positive cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from March 1, 2019, to September 30, 2020. The second dataset provided the controls and included 1,814 laboratory-confirmed influenza positive, symptomatic cases, and 812 cases with symptomatic influenza-like-illnesses. The controls were reported to the Influenza Research Database of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) between January 1, 2000, and December 30, 2018. Data were analyzed using case-control study design. The comparisons were done using 45 scenarios, with each scenario making different assumptions regarding prevalence of COVID-19 (2%, 4%, and 6%), influenza (0.01%, 3%, 6%, 9%, 12%) and influenza-like-illnesses (1%, 3.5% and 7%). For each scenario, a logistic regression model was used to predict COVID-19 from 2 demographic variables (age, gender) and 10 symptoms (cough, fever, chills, diarrhea, nausea and vomiting, shortness of breath, runny nose, sore throat, myalgia, and headache). The 5-fold cross-validated Area under the Receiver Operating Curves (AROC) was used to report the accuracy of these regression models. The value of various symptoms in differentiating COVID-19 from influenza depended on a variety of factors, including (1) prevalence of pathogens that cause COVID-19, influenza, and influenza-like-illness; (2) age of the patient, and (3) presence of other symptoms. The model that relied on 5-way combination of symptoms and demographic variables, age and gender, had a cross-validated AROC of 90%, suggesting that it could accurately differentiate influenza from COVID-19. This model, however, is too complex to be used in clinical practice without relying on computer-based decision aid. Study results encourage development of web-based, stand-alone, artificial Intelligence model that can interview patients and help clinicians make quarantine and triage decisions.

Modeling the Probability of COVID-19 Based on Symptom Screening and Prevalence of Influenza and Influenza-Like Illnesses

BACKGROUND

The importance of various patient-reported signs and symptoms to the diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) changes during, and outside, of the flu season. None of the current published studies, which focus on diagnosis of COVID-19, have taken this seasonality into account.

OBJECTIVE

To develop predictive algorithm, which estimates the probability of having COVID-19 based on symptoms, and which incorporates the seasonality and prevalence of influenza and influenza-like illness data.

METHODS

Differential diagnosis of COVID-19 and influenza relies on demographic characteristics (age, race, and gender), and respiratory (eg, fever, cough, and runny nose), gastrointestinal (eg, diarrhea, nausea, and loss of appetite), and neurological (eg, anosmia and headache) signs and symptoms. The analysis was based on the symptoms reported by COVID-19 patients, 774 patients in China and 273 patients in the United States. The analysis also included 2885 influenza and 884 influenza-like illnesses in US patients. Accuracy of the predictions was calculated using the average area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curves.

RESULTS

The likelihood ratio for symptoms, such as cough, depended on the flu season-sometimes indicating COVID-19 and other times indicating the reverse. In 30-fold cross-validated data, the symptoms accurately predicted COVID-19 (AROC of 0.79), showing that symptoms can be used to screen patients in the community and prior to testing.

CONCLUSION

Community-based health care providers should follow different signs and symptoms for diagnosing COVID-19 during, and outside of, influenza season.

Neighborhood Socioeconomic Environment and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Associations and Mediation Through Food Environment Pathways in Three Independent Study Samples

OBJECTIVE

We examined whether relative availability of fast-food restaurants and supermarkets mediates the association between worse neighborhood socioeconomic conditions and risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

As part of the Diabetes Location, Environmental Attributes, and Disparities Network, three academic institutions used harmonized environmental data sources and analytic methods in three distinct study samples: 1) the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk (VADR) cohort, a national administrative cohort of 4.1 million diabetes-free veterans developed using electronic health records (EHRs); 2) Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS), a longitudinal, epidemiologic cohort with Stroke Belt region oversampling (N = 11,208); and 3) Geisinger/Johns Hopkins University (G/JHU), an EHR-based, nested case-control study of 15,888 patients with new-onset T2D and of matched control participants in Pennsylvania. A census tract-level measure of neighborhood socioeconomic environment (NSEE) was developed as a community type-specific z-score sum. Baseline food-environment mediators included percentages of 1) fast-food restaurants and 2) food retail establishments that are supermarkets. Natural direct and indirect mediating effects were modeled; results were stratified across four community types: higher-density urban, lower-density urban, suburban/small town, and rural.

RESULTS

Across studies, worse NSEE was associated with higher T2D risk. In VADR, relative availability of fast-food restaurants and supermarkets was positively and negatively associated with T2D, respectively, whereas associations in REGARDS and G/JHU geographies were mixed. Mediation results suggested that little to none of the NSEE-diabetes associations were mediated through food-environment pathways.

CONCLUSIONS

Worse neighborhood socioeconomic conditions were associated with higher T2D risk, yet associations are likely not mediated through food-environment pathways.

Effectiveness of common antidepressants: a post market release study

BACKGROUND

This study summarizes the experiences of patients, who have multiple comorbidities, with 15 mono-treated antidepressants.

METHODS

This is a retrospective, observational, matched case control study. The cohort was organized using claims data available through OptumLabs for depressed patients treated with antidepressants between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2018. The cohort included patients from all states within United States of America. The analysis focused on 3,678,082 patients with major depression who had 10,221,145 antidepressant treatments. Using the robust, and large predictors of remission, and propensity to prescribe an antidepressant, the study created 16,770 subgroups of patients. The study reports the remission rate for the antidepressants within the subgroups. The overall impact of antidepressant on remission was calculated as the common odds ratio across the strata.

FINDINGS

The study accurately modelled clinicians' prescription patterns (cross-validated Area under the Receiver Operating Curve, AROC, of 82.0%, varied from 77% to 90%) and patients' remission (cross-validated AROC of 72.0%, varied from 69.5% to 78%). In different strata, contrary to published randomized studies, remission rates differed significantly and antidepressants were not equally effective. For example, in age and gender subgroups, the best antidepressant had an average remission rate of 50.78%, 1.5 times higher than the average antidepressant (30.30% remission rate) and 20 times higher than the worst antidepressant. The Breslow-Day chi-square test for homogeneity showed that across strata a homogenous common odds-ratio did not exist (alpha<0.0001). Therefore, the choice of the optimal antidepressant depended on the strata defined by the patient's medical history.

INTERPRETATION

Study findings may not be appropriate for specific patients. To help clinicians assess the transferability of study findings to specific patient, the web site http://hi.gmu.edu/ad assesses the patient's medical history, finds similar cases in our data, and recommends an antidepressant based on the experience of remission in our data. Patients can share this site's recommendations with their clinicians, who can then assess the appropriateness of the recommendations.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson foundation grant #76786. The development of related web site was supported by grant 247-02-20 from Virginia's Commonwealth Health Research Board.

Multi-omic molecular profiling guide's efficacious treatment selection in refractory metastatic breast cancer: a prospective phase II clinical trial

This prospective phase II clinical trial (Side Out 2) explored the clinical benefits of treatment selection informed by multi‐omic molecular profiling (MoMP) in refractory metastatic breast cancers (MBCs). Core needle biopsies were collected from 32 patients with MBC at trial enrollment. Patients had received an average of 3.94 previous lines of treatment in the metastatic setting before enrollment in this study. Samples underwent MoMP, including exome sequencing, RNA sequencing (RNA‐Seq), immunohistochemistry, and quantitative protein pathway activation mapping by Reverse Phase Protein Microarray (RPPA). Clinical benefit was assessed using the previously published growth modulation index (GMI) under the hypothesis that MoMP‐selected therapy would warrant further investigation for GMI ≥ 1.3 in ≥ 35% of the patients. Of the 32 patients enrolled, 29 received treatment based on their MoMP and 25 met the follow‐up criteria established by the trial protocol. Molecular information was delivered to the tumor board in a median time frame of 14 days (11–22 days), and targetable alterations for commercially available agents were found in 23/25 patients (92%). Of the 25 patients, 14 (56%) reached GMI ≥ 1.3. A high level of DNA topoisomerase I (TOPO1) led to the selection of irinotecan‐based treatments in 48% (12/25) of the patients. A pooled analysis suggested clinical benefit in patients with high TOPO1 expression receiving irinotecan‐based regimens (GMI ≥ 1.3 in 66.7% of cases). These results confirmed previous observations that MoMP increases the frequency of identifiable actionable alterations (92% of patients). The MoMP proposed allows the identification of biomarkers that are frequently expressed in MBCs and the evaluation of their role as predictors of response to commercially available agents. Lastly, this study confirmed the role of MoMP for informing treatment selection in refractory MBC patients: more than half of the enrolled patients reached a GMI ≥ 1.3 even after multiple lines of previous therapies for metastatic disease.

A surrogate measure for patient reported symptom remission in administrative data

BACKGROUND

In real-world pragmatic administrative databases, patient reported remission is often missing.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluate if, in administrative data, five features of antidepressant use patterns can replace patient-reported symptom remission.

METHOD

We re-examined data from Sequence Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) study. Remission was measured using 50% reduction in Hamilton index. Pattern of antidepressant use was examined through five variables: (a) number of prior ineffective antidepressants, (b) duration of taking current antidepressant, (c) receiving therapeutic dose of the medication, and (d) switching to another medication, or (e) augmenting with another antidepressant. The likelihood ratio (LR) associated with each of these predictors was assessed in 90% of data (3329 cases) and evaluated in 10% of data (350 cases) set-aside for evaluation. The accuracy of predictions was calculated using Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AROC).

RESULTS

Patients who took antidepressants for 14 weeks (LR = 2.007) were more likely to have symptom remission. Prior use of 3 antidepressants reduced the odds of remission (LR = 0.771). Patients who received antidepressants below therapeutic dose were 5 times less likely to experience remission (LR = 0.204). Antidepressant that were augment or switched, almost never led to remission (LR = 0.008, LR = 0.002 respectively). Patterns of antidepressant use accurately (AROC = 0.93) predicted symptom remission.

CONCLUSION

Within the first 100 days, antidepressants use patterns could serve as a surrogate measure for patient-reported remission of symptoms.

Computational Barthel Index: an automated tool for assessing and predicting activities of daily living among nursing home patients

Background

Assessment of functional ability, including activities of daily living (ADLs), is a manual process completed by skilled health professionals. In the presented research, an automated decision support tool, the Computational Barthel Index Tool (CBIT), was constructed that can automatically assess and predict probabilities of current and future ADLs based on patients’ medical history.

Methods

The data used to construct the tool include the demographic information, inpatient and outpatient diagnosis codes, and reported disabilities of 181,213 residents of the Department of Veterans Affairs’ (VA) Community Living Centers. Supervised machine learning methods were applied to construct the CBIT. Temporal information about times from the first and the most recent occurrence of diagnoses was encoded. Ten-fold cross-validation was used to tune hyperparameters, and independent test sets were used to evaluate models using AUC, accuracy, recall and precision. Random forest achieved the best model quality. Models were calibrated using isotonic regression.

Results

The unabridged version of CBIT uses 578 patient characteristics and achieved average AUC of 0.94 (0.93–0.95), accuracy of 0.90 (0.89–0.91), precision of 0.91 (0.89–0.92), and recall of 0.90 (0.84–0.95) when re-evaluating patients. CBIT is also capable of predicting ADLs up to one year ahead, with accuracy decreasing over time, giving average AUC of 0.77 (0.73–0.79), accuracy of 0.73 (0.69–0.80), precision of 0.74 (0.66–0.81), and recall of 0.69 (0.34–0.96). A simplified version of CBIT with 50 top patient characteristics reached performance that does not significantly differ from full CBIT.

Conclusion

Discharge planners, disability application reviewers and clinicians evaluating comparative effectiveness of treatments can use CBIT to assess and predict information on functional status of patients.

US veterans administration diabetes risk (VADR) national cohort: cohort profile

PURPOSE

The veterans administration diabetes risk (VADR) cohort facilitates studies on temporal and geographic patterns of pre-diabetes and diabetes, as well as targeted studies of their predictors. The cohort provides an infrastructure for examination of novel individual and community-level risk factors for diabetes and their consequences among veterans. This cohort also establishes a baseline against which to assess the impact of national or regional strategies to prevent diabetes in veterans.

PARTICIPANTS

The VADR cohort includes all 6 082 018 veterans in the USA enrolled in the veteran administration (VA) for primary care who were diabetes-free as of 1 January 2008 and who had at least two diabetes-free visits to a VA primary care service at least 30 days apart within any 5-year period since 1 January 2003, or veterans subsequently enrolled and were diabetes-free at cohort entry through 31 December 2016. Cohort subjects were followed from the date of cohort entry until censure defined as date of incident diabetes, loss to follow-up of 2 years, death or until 31 December 2018.

FINDINGS TO DATE

The incidence rate of type 2 diabetes in this cohort of over 6 million veterans followed for a median of 5.5 years (over 35 million person-years (PY)) was 26 per 1000 PY. During the study period, 8.5% of the cohort were lost to follow-up and 17.7% died. Many demographic, comorbidity and other clinical variables were more prevalent among patients with incident diabetes.

FUTURE PLANS

This cohort will be used to study community-level risk factors for diabetes, such as attributes of the food environment and neighbourhood socioeconomic status via geospatial linkage to residence address information.

Relative accuracy of social and medical determinants of suicide in electronic health records

OBJECTIVE

This paper compares the accuracy of predicting suicide from Social Determinants of Health (SDoH) or history of illness.

POPULATION STUDIED

5 313 965 Veterans who at least had two primary care visits between 2008 and 2016.

STUDY DESIGN

The dependent variable was suicide or intentional self-injury. The independent variables were 10 495 International Classification of Disease (ICD) Version 9 codes, age, and gender. The ICD codes included 40 V-codes used for measuring SDoH, such as family disruption, family history of substance abuse, lack of education, legal impediments, social isolation, unemployment, and homelessness. The sample was randomly divided into training (90 percent) and validation (10 percent) sets. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC) was used to measure accuracy of predictions in the validation set.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Separate analyses were done for inpatient and outpatient codes; the results were similar. In the hospitalized group, the mean age was 67.2 years, and 92.1 percent were male. The mean number of medical diagnostic codes during the study period was 37; and 12.9 percent had at least one SDoH V-code. At least one episode of suicide or intentional self-injury occurred in 1.89 percent of cases. SDoH V-codes, on average, elevated the risk of suicide or intentional self-injury by 24-fold (ranging from 4- to 86-fold). An index of 40 SDoH codes predicted suicide or intentional self-injury with an AROC of 0.64. An index of 10 445 medical diagnoses, without SDoH V-codes, had AROC of 0.77. The combined SDoH and medical diagnoses codes also had AROC of 0.77.

CONCLUSION

In predicting suicide or intentional self-harm, SDoH V-codes add negligible information beyond what is already available in medical diagnosis codes.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Policies that affect SDoH (eg, housing policies, resilience training) may not have an impact on suicide rates, if they do not change the underlying medical causes of SDoH.

Worry less about the algorithm, more about the sequence of events

Background: Many algorithms exist for learning network structure and parameters from data. Some of these algorithms include Grow Shrink, Incremental Association Markov Blanket, IAMB, Fast IAMB, and Interleaved IAMB, Hill Climbing, Restricted Maximization and Maximum-Minimum Hill Climbing. These algorithms optimize the fit to the data, while ignoring the order of occurrences of the variables in the network structure. Objective: This paper examines if sequence information (i.e., one variable occurs before another) can make algorithms for learning directed acyclical graph networks more accurate. Methods: A 13- variable network was simulated, where information on sequence of occurrence of some of the variables was assumed to be known. In each simulation 10,000 observations were generated. These observations were used by 4 conditional dependency and 4 search and score algorithms to discover the network from the simulated data. Partial sequence was used to prohibit a directed arc from a later variable to an earlier one. The Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AROC) was used to compare the accuracy of the sequence-constrained and unconstrained algorithms in predicting the last node in the network. In addition, we examined the performance of sequence constrained algorithms in a real data set. We analyzed 1.3 million disability assessments done on 296,051 residents in Veterans Affairs nursing homes; where the sequence of occurrence of variables was inferred from the average age of occurrence of disabilities. We constructed three networks using Grow-Shrink algorithm, one without and the other two use two permutation of the observed sequence. The fit of these three models to data was examined using Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Results: In simulated data, algorithms that used sequenced constraints (AROC = 0.94, confidence intervals, C.I. = 0.86 to 1) were significantly more accurate than the same algorithm without use of sequence constraints (AROC = 0.74, C.I. = 0.65 to 0.83). The agreement between discovered and observed networks improved from range of 0.54 to 0.97 to range of 0.88 to 1. In the real data set, the Bayesian network constructed with use of sequence had 6% lower BIC scores. Conclusions: Sequence information improved accuracy of all eight learning algorithms and should be routinely examined in learning network structure from data.

Prior antibiotic exposure and risk of type 2 diabetes among Veterans

BACKGROUND

Exposure to antibiotics may increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. Veterans are at increased risk for diabetes and for exposure to antibiotics.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of antibiotic exposure for risk of diabetes.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans at the New York Harbor Healthcare System enrolled in primary care, 2004-2014, with ≥2 glycosylated hemoglobin test results <6.5%.

MAIN MEASURES

The primary exposure was any antimicrobial prescribed >6 months prior to the date of diabetes diagnosis, loss to follow-up, death, or the end of the study, measured as the number of courses of antimicrobial prescriptions filled and the mean daily dose (MDD). The primary outcome was incident diagnosis of diabetes through 2014, defined ≥2 ICD-9 codes for diabetes or ≥2 prescriptions of diabetes medications, other than metformin. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model antimicrobial medications, demographic and anthropometric measures, and comorbid cardiovascular conditions to incident diabetes. Models incorporated time varying covariates of antimicrobial medication and MDD to analyze associations by antimicrobial class.

KEY RESULTS

Among 14,361 Veterans, 9922 (69.1%) were prescribed any antimicrobial medication during the study period. 1413 (9.8%) individuals developed type 2 diabetes. Increased risk of diabetes was associated with >1 prescription (HR 1.13 [1.01-1.26]) compared to none. Time varying analysis of the total number of cumulative courses prescribed showed increased diabetes risk for cephalosporin (HR 1.17 [1.04-1.31]), macrolide (HR 1.08 [1.03-1.13]) and penicillin (HR 1.05 [1.02-1.07]). MDD showed increased risk per 100-unit (mg) increase in antibiotic exposure from (HR 1.05 [1.02-1.08]) for sulfonamide to (HR 1.70 [1.51-1.92]) for cephalosporin.

CONCLUSION

Any and repeated exposure to certain antibiotics may increase diabetes risk among Veterans. Results from this study add to the growing evidence suggesting that antibiotic exposure increases risk for diabetes. Antibiotic stewardship may be enhanced by better understanding this risk, and may lower the incidence of diabetes in populations at risk.