A machine learning model to predict therapeutic inertia in type 2 diabetes using electronic health record data

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the therapeutic inertia prevalence for patients with type 2 diabetes, develop and validate a machine learning model predicting therapeutic inertia, and determine the added predictive value of area-level social determinants of health (SDOH).

METHODS

This prognostic study with a retrospective cohort design used OneFlorida data (linked electronic health records (EHRs) from 1240 practices/clinics in Florida). The study cohort included adults (aged ≥ 18) with type 2 diabetes, HbA1C ≥ 7% (53 mmol/mol), ≥one ambulatory visit, and ≥one antihyperglycemic medication prescribed (excluded patients prescribed insulin before HbA1C). The outcome was therapeutic inertia, defined as absence of treatment intensification within six months after HbA1C ≥ 7% (53 mmol/mol). The predictors were patient, provider, and healthcare system factors. Machine learning methods included gradient boosting machines (GBM), random forests (RF), elastic net (EN), and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). The DeLong test compared the discriminative ability (represented by C-statistics) between models.

RESULTS

The cohort included 31,087 patients with type 2 diabetes (mean age = 58.89 (SD = 13.27) years, 50.50% male, 58.89% White). The therapeutic inertia prevalence was 39.80% among the 68,445 records. GBM outperformed (C-statistic from testing sample = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.83-0.84) RF (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.79-0.80), EN (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.80-0.81), and LASSO (C-statistic = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.80-0.81), p < 0.05. Area-level SDOH significantly increased the discriminative ability versus models without SDOH (C-statistic for GBM = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.84-0.85 vs. 0.84, 95% CI = 0.83-0.84), p < 0.05.

CONCLUSIONS

Using EHRs of patients with type 2 diabetes from a large state, machine learning predicted therapeutic inertia (prevalence = 40%). The model's ability to predict patients at high risk of therapeutic inertia is clinically applicable to diabetes care.

Racial/ethnic disparities in exposure to e-cigarette advertising among U.S. youth

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess exposure to e-cigarette advertising across multiple marketing channels among U.S. youth and to examine whether racial/ethnic disparities exist in exposure to e-cigarette advertisements.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data were drawn from a longitudinal survey of participants recruited from two nationally representative panels (NORC's AmeriSpeak® and GfK's KnowledgePanel). A total of 2043 youth aged 13-17 completed the initial 2018 survey, and 2013 youth completed the follow-up survey in 2019 (including a replenishment sample of 690 youth). Outcome variables were self-reported e-cigarette advertisement exposure in the past three months through various sources, such as television, point of sale, and online/social media. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (AOR) of the association between racial/ethnic identity and e-cigarette advertisement exposure.

RESULTS

The prevalence of reported exposure to e-cigarette advertisements through any channel was 79.8% (95% CI: 77.1-82.2) in 2018 and 74.9% (95% CI: 72.5-77.1) in 2019, respectively. Point of sale was the most common source of e-cigarette advertisement exposure in both years. Non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic Asian youth were more likely to report exposure to e-cigarette advertisements through television (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.44-2.99 and AOR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.17-3.82, respectively) and online/social media (AOR = 1.61; 95% CI: 1.11-2.33 and AOR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.10-3.59, respectively) channels compared with non-Hispanic White youth.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of U.S. youth reported exposure to e-cigarette advertising through a variety of marketing channels. Significant racial/ethnic disparities existed, with non-Hispanic Black and Asian youth reporting more marketing exposure than their non-Hispanic White counterparts.

A prospective cohort study exploring the impact of tonsillectomy on feeding difficulties in children

OBJECTIVES

Paediatric feeding difficulties are common, affecting up to 25% of otherwise healthy children, symptoms include food refusal, gagging, choking, and excessive mealtime duration. These symptoms are commonly described in pre-operative discussions about tonsillectomy. This prospective study explores the impact of tonsillectomy on paediatric feeding difficulties.

DESIGN

This prospective cohort study invited caregivers of children undergoing tonsillectomy to complete a PediEAT questionnaire about their children's feeding behaviours, pre and post-operatively. The study was completed in two phases with 9 questions administered in phase 1 and three additional questions added for phase 2. A free text comments box was also provided. Responses were graded from 0 to 5, where 0 is 'never a problem' and 5 is 'always a problem' with eating behaviours.

SETTING

The study was conducted at our institution, a tertiary paediatric ENT unit.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged between 6 months - 7 years undergoing tonsillectomy for any indication were invited to participate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes to the Pedi-EAT scores pre and post operatively were the main outcome measure.

RESULTS

102 participants were recruited between January 2020 and January 2022. The mean age of participants was 4.1 years, 87% had a concurrent adenoidectomy. The mean time to completion of post-operative questionnaire was 23 weeks after surgery. 9 of the 12 questions showed a statistically significant improvement in post-operative scores using a paired student t-test (p < 0.05). The most significant improvements related to 'gets tired from eating and is not able to finish' (1.49 pre-op, 0.91 post op, p < 0.01) and 'eats food that needs to be chewed' (1.4 pre-op, 0.72 post-op, p < 0.01). 13% of participants only underwent tonsillectomy and this group also showed a statistically significant improvement in fatigue during eating (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Symptoms of fatigue during eating and avoidance of food requiring mastication are most likely to improve following tonsillectomy in children.

A high-density and high-confinement tokamak plasma regime for fusion energy

The tokamak approach, utilizing a toroidal magnetic field configuration to confine a hot plasma, is one of the most promising designs for developing reactors that can exploit nuclear fusion to generate electrical energy1,2. To reach the goal of an economical reactor, most tokamak reactor designs3-10 simultaneously require reaching a plasma line-averaged density above an empirical limit-the so-called Greenwald density11-and attaining an energy confinement quality better than the standard high-confinement mode12,13. However, such an operating regime has never been verified in experiments. In addition, a long-standing challenge in the high-confinement mode has been the compatibility between a high-performance core and avoiding large, transient edge perturbations that can cause very high heat loads on the plasma-facing-components in tokamaks. Here we report the demonstration of stable tokamak plasmas with a line-averaged density approximately 20% above the Greenwald density and an energy confinement quality of approximately 50% better than the standard high-confinement mode, which was realized by taking advantage of the enhanced suppression of turbulent transport granted by high density-gradients in the high-poloidal-beta scenario14,15. Furthermore, our experimental results show an integration of very low edge transient perturbations with the high normalized density and confinement core. The operating regime we report supports some critical requirements in many fusion reactor designs all over the world and opens a potential avenue to an operating point for producing economically attractive fusion energy.

GOA-optimized deep learning for soybean yield estimation using multi-source remote sensing data

Accurately estimating large-area crop yields, especially for soybeans, is essential for addressing global food security challenges. This study introduces a deep learning framework that focuses on precise county-level soybean yield estimation in the United States. It utilizes a wide range of multi-variable remote sensing data. The model used in this study is a state-of-the-art CNN-BiGRU model, which is enhanced by the GOA and a novel attention mechanism (GCBA). This model excels in handling intricate time series and diverse remote sensing datasets. Compared to five leading machine learning and deep learning models, our GCBA model demonstrates superior performance, particularly in the 2019 and 2020 evaluations, achieving remarkable R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE values. This sets a new benchmark in yield estimation accuracy. Importantly, the study highlights the significance of integrating multi-source remote sensing data. It reveals that synthesizing information from various sensors and incorporating photosynthesis-related parameters significantly enhances yield estimation precision. These advancements not only provide transformative insights for precision agricultural management but also establish a solid scientific foundation for informed decision-making in global agricultural production and food security.

[Clinical and genetic analysis of a patient with HUPRA syndrome due to missense variants of SARS2 gene and literature review]

Objective: To explore the clinical manifestations and genotype of an infant with hyperuricemia, pulmonary hypertension, renal failure in infancy, and alkalosis syndrome (HUPRAS). Methods: Clinical data of the patient were collected. Peripheral blood samples from the patient and his parents were acquainted for whole exome sequencing. The filtrated variants were verified by Sanger sequencing. The pathogenicity of the variants was predicted by bioinformatic tools. Results: The patient is a male infant of 6 months old, carrying two missense variants in the SARS2 allele: a paternal inherited c.1205G>A (p. Arg402His) and a maternal inherited c.680G>A (p. Arg227Gln). The two variants were in extremely low population frequencies. The pathogenetic prediction tools categorized them as deleterious. Arg402 and Arg227 were highly conserved in evolution. The variants led to changes in the hydrogen bonds and hydrophobicity of seryl-tRNA synthetase encoded by SARS2. Conclusions: c.1205G>A (p. Arg402His) and c.680G>A (p. Arg227Gln) are the possible causative variants of the HUPRA syndrome.

[Characteristics and clinical analysis of MLH1 c.463dupC gene mutation in a Lynch syndrome family]

In this study, a case of Lynch syndrome (LS) family line with a novel mutation site in the MLH1 c.463dupC gene was reported and the clinical and pathogenic genetic features of this family were analyzed. A 40-year-old female patient with colon cancer diagnosed at the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University on October 2, 2020 was retrospectively included. The clinical data of the family were collected and the family lineage was drawn. The family tumor history met the Amsterdam Criteria Ⅱ and the diagnostic criteria of LS in Chinese, which was a typical LS family lineage. A germline code-shift missense mutation c.463dupC in the MLH1 gene located in exon 6, a possible pathogenic variant, was detected by second-generation sequencing (NGS) in the patient. Subsequently, Sanger sequencing was performed on a total of 20 direct lineage members of the family of the MLH1 gene, 7 cases were found to harbor the mutation and included in the LS high-risk control. Follow-up to October 2023 showed that the patient had endometrial and cervical polyps, one case had colorectal cancer, and two cases had intestinal polyps, all were treated with early intervention and therapy; two cases did not show any clinical symptoms. This study is the first to report a new mutation site for the potentially pathogenic MLH1 c.463dupC, providing a rationale for the pathogenicity of the mutation and standardized health management for familial carriers.

Dietary habits and physical activity during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: associated factors, composite outcomes in a cross-sectional telephone survey of a Chinese population, and trend analysis

INTRODUCTION

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic created many challenges for Hong Kong residents attempting to maintain healthy lifestyle habits. This study aimed to measure the prevalences of unhealthy dietary habits and physical inactivity levels in Hong Kong Chinese, identify associated factors, and conduct a time trend analysis during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted in Hong Kong by simple random sampling. The survey comprised socio-demographic characteristics, clinical information, the Hong Kong Diet Score (HKDS), smoking and alcohol consumption, and a Chinese version of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire Short Form. The composite outcome was low HKDS, physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol consumption. We used 14 Health Behaviour Survey reports from 2003 to 2019 to establish a trend analysis regarding fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity level, smoking, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

We performed 1500 complete telephone surveys with a response rate of 58.8%. Most participants were older adults (≥65 years, 66.7%), women (65.6%), and married (77.9%). The HKDS was significantly lower in men, single individuals, low-income participants, alcohol drinkers, and patients with diabetes mellitus or renal disease. Participants who were single, undergoing long-term management of medical diseases, or had diabetes or renal diseases exhibited greater likelihood of physical inactivity.

CONCLUSION

Prevalences of unhealthy lifestyle habits were high among men, single individuals, and chronic disease patients during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong. The adoption of physical activity habits tended to decrease in the past two decades.

Toripalimab plus axitinib versus sunitinib as first-line treatment for advanced renal cell carcinoma: RENOTORCH, a randomized, open-label, phase III study

BACKGROUND

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in combination with tyrosine kinase inhibitors are standard treatments for advanced clear cell renal cell carcinoma (RCC). This phase III RENOTORCH study compared the efficacy and safety of toripalimab plus axitinib versus sunitinib for the first-line treatment of patients with intermediate-/poor-risk advanced RCC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients with intermediate-/poor-risk unresectable or metastatic RCC were randomized in a ratio of 1 : 1 to receive toripalimab (240 mg intravenously once every 3 weeks) plus axitinib (5 mg orally twice daily) or sunitinib [50 mg orally once daily for 4 weeks (6-week cycle) or 2 weeks (3-week cycle)]. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS) assessed by an independent review committee (IRC). The secondary endpoints were investigator-assessed PFS, overall response rate (ORR), overall survival (OS), and safety.

RESULTS

A total of 421 patients were randomized to receive toripalimab plus axitinib (n = 210) or sunitinib (n = 211). With a median follow-up of 14.6 months, toripalimab plus axitinib significantly reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 35% compared with sunitinib as assessed by an IRC [hazard ratio (HR) 0.65, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.49-0.86; P = 0.0028]. The median PFS was 18.0 months in the toripalimab-axitinib group, whereas it was 9.8 months in the sunitinib group. The IRC-assessed ORR was significantly higher in the toripalimab-axitinib group compared with the sunitinib group (56.7% versus 30.8%; P < 0.0001). An OS trend favoring toripalimab plus axitinib was also observed (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.40-0.92). Treatment-related grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in 61.5% of patients in the toripalimab-axitinib group and 58.6% of patients in the sunitinib group.

CONCLUSION

In patients with previously untreated intermediate-/poor-risk advanced RCC, toripalimab plus axitinib provided significantly longer PFS and higher ORR than sunitinib and had a manageable safety profile TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04394975.

An improved limit on the neutrinoless double-electron capture of 36Ar with GERDA

The GERmanium Detector Array (Gerda) experiment operated enriched high-purity germanium detectors in a liquid argon cryostat, which contains 0.33% of 36 Ar, a candidate isotope for the two-neutrino double-electron capture (2ν ECEC) and therefore for the neutrinoless double-electron capture (0ν ECEC). If detected, this process would give evidence of lepton number violation and the Majorana nature of neutrinos. In the radiative 0ν ECEC of 36 Ar, a monochromatic photon is emitted with an energy of 429.88 keV, which may be detected by the Gerda germanium detectors. We searched for the 36 Ar 0ν ECEC with Gerda data, with a total live time of 4.34 year (3.08 year accumulated during Gerda Phase II and 1.26 year during Gerda Phase I). No signal was found and a 90% CL lower limit on the half-life of this process was established T 1 / 2 > 1.5 · 10 22  year.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1140/epjc/s10052-023-12280-6.

Identification of new subtypes and potential genetic signatures in triple-negative breast cancer using weighted gene co-expression network analysis

OBJECTIVE

Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a heterogeneous disease with aggressive behavior and poor prognosis. Here, we used gene expression profiling to define new subtypes of TNBC, which may improve prevention and treatment through personalized medicine.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Gene expression profiles from the public datasets GSE76250, GSE61724, GSE61723, and GES76275 were subjected to co-expression analysis to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between TNBC and non-TNBC tissues. Consistency clustering was used to define TNBC subtypes, whose correlation with gene modules was analyzed. Enrichment analysis was used to identify module genes' biological functions and pathways. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was used to assess immune cell infiltration in the different TNBC subtypes, and the ChAMP package was used to examine methylation sites in TNBC.

RESULTS

A total of 4,958 DEGs in TNBC were identified, which showed the same expression differences across all datasets as in the dataset GSE76250 and clustered into 9 co-expression modules. TNBC samples clustered into two subtypes based on nine hub genes from the modules. Class I showed the most significant correlation with module 1, whose genes were related mainly to interleukin-1 response, while class II showed the most significant correlation with module 6, whose genes were related mainly to the transforming growth factor-β pathway. Class I was significantly enriched in cell cycle and DNA replication, and tumors of this subtype showed lower immune cell infiltration than class II tumors. Tumor infiltration by Th2 cells correlated positively with the expression of MCM10 and negatively with the expression of PREX2. A greater methylation of CIDEC, DLC1, EDNRB, EGR2 and SRPK1 correlated with better prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Class I TNBC, for which a useful biomarker is MCM10, may be associated with a worse prognosis than class II TNBC, for which PREX2 may serve as a biomarker.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

The Effects of Different Exercise Interventions on Patients with Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Exercise is a promising non-pharmacological therapy for subjective cognitive decline, but it is unclear which type of exercise is most effective. The objective was to assess the comparative effects and ranks of all exercise-based interventions on cognitive function in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SCD).

METHOD

In this network meta-analysis, Online databases for Web of Science, PubMed, Embase, Medline, Cochrane Library and PsycINFO were searched from inception to April 30, 2023. The included studies are randomized controlled trials assessing the efficacy of exercise interventions for individuals with SCD. The primary outcome measure is memory, while secondary outcome measures encompass executive function, attention, verbal fluency, and global cognitive function. Represented using Standardized Mean Differences (SMDs) along with their 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs). Bias assessment was conducted in accordance with the 'Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool, 2nd Edition' (RoB 2). Pairwise meta-analysis was carried out using the 'meta-analysis' module within STATA 14.0, and network meta-analysis was performed using the 'mvmeta' and 'network' packages available in STATA 14.0. Registration number CRD42023289687.

RESULT

This study included a total of 11 randomized controlled trials, encompassing 1,166 patients. Mind-body exercise was found to be efficacious in enhancing or sustaining memory (SMD: 0.58, 95%CI: 0.06 ~ 1.10) and executive function (SMD: 0.41, 95%CI: 0.09 ~ 0.73) in individuals with subjective cognitive decline. Furthermore, mind-body exercise exhibited the highest probability of being the most effective measures for improving or preventing the decline in memory (surface under cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA) value: 90.4) and executive function (SUCRA value: 91.8). The second-ranked moderate-intensity aerobic exercise has also shown a positive effect on the improvement of executive function in patients with subjective cognitive decline (SMD: 0.23, 95%CI: 0.03 ~ 0.43, SUCRA value: 68.2). However, we did not observe a significant effectiveness of exercise interventions on verbal fluency, attention, and overall cognitive function in subjective cognitive decline.

CONCLUSION

Mind-body exercise may potentially be the optimal strategies for enhancing memory and executive function in individuals with subjective cognitive decline. Additionally, moderate-intensity aerobic exercise has shown a modest positive effect on executive function in subjective cognitive decline. When resources permit, practical application of these findings may be considered. Nevertheless, further support for the conclusions of this study is warranted through larger sample sizes and well-designed multicenter trials.

Rationale and Design of a Phase II Trial of Combined Serplulimab and Chemotherapy in Patients with Histologically Transformed Small Cell Lung Cancer: a Prospective, Single-arm and Multicentre Study

AIMS

Transformed small cell lung cancer (T-SCLC) is a highly aggressive clinical disease with a notably poor prognosis. It most often arises from epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) following treatment. To date, no standard treatment has been established for T-SCLC. Platinum-etoposide was the most commonly used regimen, but progression-free survival remains unsatisfactory. Therefore, there is an urgent unmet need to develop novel and effective strategies for this population. Our study, a multicentre, open-label, single-arm phase II clinical trial (NCT05957510), aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of serplulimab plus chemotherapy in untreated T-SCLC patients after histological transformation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In total, 36 eligible participants experiencing SCLC transformation from EGFR-mutant NSCLC will be enrolled to receive combination therapy of serplulimab, etoposide and carboplatin for four to six cycles, followed by maintenance therapy with serplulimab for up to 2 years. The primary endpoint is progression-free survival; secondary endpoints include objective response rate, overall survival and safety.

RESULTS

Enrolment started in July 2023 and is ongoing, with an estimated completion date of December 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

This study aims to provide valuable insights into the efficacy and safety of combining serplulimab with chemotherapy for treating patients with T-SCLC originating from EGFR-mutant NSCLC.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

[Analysis and prediction of burden of viral hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2044]

OBJECTIVE

To measure the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2044, so as to provide insights into formulation of the targeted hepatitis C control strategy.

METHODS

The total burden due to hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of hepatitis C-associated acute hepatitis C (AHC), chronic liver diseases (CLD) and liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated in China from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2044 using a Bayesian model.

RESULTS

The prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases all appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = -2.64%, -2.24%, -3.81% and -3.90%, respectively); however, there was a minor rise in the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C-associated diseases from 2015 to 2019. The overall prevalence of hepatitis C-associated diseases reduced from 2 152.7/105 in 1990 to 1 254.1/105 in 2019 in China, with a reduction of 41.7%. The overall incidence reduced from 87.9/105 in 1990 to 55.0/105 in 2019 in China, with a reduction of 37.4%, and the highest incidence was seen for AHC, followed by CLD and liver cancer. The overall mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases was 4.0/105 and 100.8/105 in China from 1990 to 2019, with CLD showing the largest contributions to the gross mortality and DALY. The mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases were 5.5/105 and 142.4/105 among men in China in 2019, which were both much higher than among women (2.8/105 and 60.3/105, respectively), and the overall prevalence (1 604.9/105), mortality (30.2/105) and DALYs (437.1/105) of hepatitis C-associated diseases were all highest among patients at ages of 70 years and older, and the highest incidence was seen among patients at ages of 0 to 9 years (167.3/105). The incidence of hepatitis C-associated diseases was predicted to rise in China from 2020 to 2044; however, the DALY rate was projected to appear a tendency towards a decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases showed a tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, the burden remained high, and was predicted to slightly rise from 2020 to 2044. High attention should be paid to screening of hepatitis C among infants and treatment among adults.

[Burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2030]

OBJECTIVE

To measure the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2030.

METHODS

The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in burdens of hepatitis B-associated diseases were evaluated from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and annual percent change (APC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2023 using the Bayesian model.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases reduced from 2 725.98/105 in 1990 to 1 397.31/105 in 2019 in China [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -2.35%, 95% confidential interval (CI): (-2.58%, -2.13%)], with a reduction in the prevalence from 12 239.53/105 in 1990 to 6 566.12/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -2.34%, 95% CI: (-2.54%, -2.14%)], a reduction in the mortality from 24.67/105 in 1990 to 8.07/105 in 2019 [EAPC = -4.92%, 95% CI: (-5.37%, -4.47%)], and a reduction in the DALY rate from 793.38/105 in 1990 to 247.71/105 in 2019 [(EAPC = -5.15%, 95% CI: (-5.64%, -4.66%)]. The DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases were mainly attributed to liver cancer, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases appeared a tendency towards a rise in China from 2012 to 2019 [APC = 1.30%, 95% CI: (0.16%, 2.45%)]. The overall burden of hepatitis Bassociated diseases was higher in males than in females, and the DALY rate of hepatitis B-associated diseases increased with age, with the greatest DALY rate seen among patients at ages of 50 to 69 years. The overall incidence of hepatitis B-associated diseases was projected to be 866.79/105 in China in 2030, with the greatest incidence seen in acute hepatitis B (854.87/105), and the burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases was predicted to decline in China from 2020 to 2030; however, the burden of liver disease was projected to appear a tendency towards a rise.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of hepatitis B-associated diseases appears an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2030; however, the burden of liver cancer appears a tendency towards aggravation. Early diagnosis and treatment of liver cancer should be given a high priority.

[Spatial distribution characteristics of the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody in Hunan Province in 2020]

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody, and to examine the correlation between the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody in Hunan Province in 2020, so as to provide insights into advanced schistosomiais control in the province.

METHODS

The epidemiological data of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province in 2020 were collected, including number of permanent residents in survey villages, number of advanced schistosomiasis patients, number of residents receiving serological tests and number of residents seropositive for anti-Schistosoma antibody, and the prevalence advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody were descriptively analyzed. Village-based spatial distribution characteristics of prevalence advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody were identified in Hunan Province in 2020, and the correlation between the revalence advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody was examined using Spearman correlation analysis.

RESULTS

The prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis was 0 to 2.72% and the seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody was 0 to 20.25% in 1 153 schistosomiasis-endemic villages in Hunan Province in 2020. Spatial clusters were identified in both the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis (global Moran's I = 0.416, P < 0.01) and the seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody (global Moran's I = 0.711, P < 0.01) in Hunan Province. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified 98 schistosomiasis-endemic villages with high-high clusters of the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis, 134 endemic villages with high-high clusters of the seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody and 36 endemic villages with high-high clusters of both the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody in Hunan Province. In addition, spearman correlation analysis showed a positive correlation between the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody (rs = 0.235, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There were spatial clusters of the prevalence of advanced schistosomiasis and seroprevalence of anti-Schistosoma antibody in Hunan Province in 2020, which were predominantly located in areas neighboring the Dongting Lake. These clusters should be given a high priority in the schistosomiasis control programs.

Safety and efficacy of oral anticoagulants in extreme weights

BACKGROUND

The 2021 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis' (ISTH) recommends standard doses of apixaban and rivaroxaban regardless of high body mass index (BMI) and weight, but had not compare DOACs head-to-head in obesity or address underweight patients.

METHODS

Our aim is to evaluate the safety and efficacy of DOACs in underweight and obese patients compared to warfarin. The primary endpoints include incidence of thromboembolic and bleeding events. Descriptive statistics was used for continuous variables. The Kruskal-Wallis test was used to compare the four-groups for continuous measures and the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test was used to analyze categorical data. The chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, was used for categorical variables, and the Mann-Whitney test (the non-parametric counterpart to the two-sample t-test) for continuous data.

RESULTS

Of 2940 patients receiving anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) treatment or atrial fibrillation (AF), 492 met eligibility criteria. Within each group, 248 patients received warfarin, 101 received apixaban, 100 received rivaroxaban and 43 received dabigatran. Patients were characterized in 4 body mass index (BMI) categories, in which 80 were underweight and 412 were obese.

CONCLUSIONS

When each DOAC was compared to warfarin in rates of VTE, apixaban showed statistically significant lower rate of VTE (p = 0.0149). However, no statistical significance was identified in the rate of VTE between DOACs combined vs. warfarin (p = 0.1529). When each DOAC was compared to warfarin, apixaban showed the lowest rate of overall bleeding (p = 0.0194). However, no statistical difference in the rate of bleeding was observed between DOACs combined vs. warfarin (p = 0.3284). Patients with extreme body weights requiring anticoagulation for VTE and AF may safety benefit from DOAC therapy. This evaluation showed apixaban with the lowest rate of VTE and bleeding compared to warfarin, rivaroxaban, and dabigatran. These results provide experience for the clinician to use DOACs, particularly apixaban, in underweight and obese populations.