Spatial-temporal trends in leprosy burden and its associations with socioeconomic and physical geographic factors: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of our study was to assess the multiscalar changes in leprosy burden and its associated risk factors over the last three decades.

STUDY DESIGN

We conducted an in-depth examination of leprosy's spatial-temporal trends at multiple geographical scale (global, regional, and national), utilizing information from Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019).

METHODS

Incidence and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of leprosy were determined, with countries categorized based on leprosy incidence changes. We examined socioeconomic and physical geography influences on leprosy incidence via Spearman correlation analysis, using ternary phase diagrams to reveal the synergetic effects on leprosy occurrence.

RESULTS

Globally, incident cases of leprosy decreased by 27.86% from 1990 to 2019, with a reduction in ASIR (EAPC = -2.53), yet trends were not homogeneous across regions. ASIR and EAPC correlated positively with sociodemographic index (SDI), and an ASIR growth appeared in high SDI region (EAPC = 3.07). Leprosy burden was chiefly distributed in Tropical Latin America, Oceania, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. Negative correlations were detected between the incidence of leprosy and factors of SDI, GDP per capita, urban population to total population, and precipitation, whereas the number of refugee population, temperature, and elevation showed opposite positive results.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a global decline in leprosy over the past three decades, the disparities of disease occurrence at regional and national scales still persisted. Socioeconomic and physical geographic factors posed an obvious influence on the transmission risk of leprosy. The persistence and regional fluctuations of leprosy incidence necessitate the ongoing dynamic and multilayered control strategies worldwide in combating this ancient disease.

[Global trends in the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis in 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019]

Objective: To analyze the changing trend of incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis globally, and provide scientific basis for the formulation of health policy. Methods: In June 2022, through the Global Health Data exchange (GHDx) query tool (http: //ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) , the pneumoconiosis incidence and prevalence data was downloaded and organized. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) were used to estimate the trends of pneumoconiosis from 1990 to 2019. EAPC was estimated by linear regression model based on ASR. Results: The overall ASR of the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis decreased from 1990 to 2019, and their EAPCs were-0.85% (95%CI: -1.11%--0.60%) and -0.78% (95%CI: -1.08%--0.49%) . Over the past 30 years, the incidence and prevalence of pneumoconiosis in all SDI areas showed decreasing trends, especially in high SDI areas, their EAPCs were -1.46% (95%CI: -1.76%--1.15%) and -1.99% (95%CI: -2.44%--1.53%) . 110 countries/areas showed increasing trends in age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) , with Iran and Georgia showing the most pronounced upward trend, their EAPCs were 5.32% (95%CI: 4.43%-6.22%) and 4.39% (95%CI: 3.81%-4.97%) . 125 countries/areas showed anincreasing trends in prevalence ASR, with Iran had the fastest rise in prevalence (EAPC=6.40%, 95%CI: 5.33%-7.49%) . Conclusion: Although decreasing trends in the burden of pneumoconiosis are observed globally from 1990 to 2019, but the burden of pneumoconiosis in low-and middle-income countries or regions are still heavy. We need more effective strategies to prevent and reduce the burden of pneumoconiosis.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter: Trends from 1990 to 2019 and projections until 2044

Aims

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) is a critical public health issue worldwide, and its epidemiological patterns have changed over the decades. This work aimed to assess the global trends of AF/AFL and attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

Methods and results

The present study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to examine the temporal trends, attributable risks, and projections of AF/AFL. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR) were employed for this purpose. The findings revealed that in 2019, AF/AFL accounted for 4.72 million incident cases, 59.70 million prevalent cases, 0.32 million deaths, and 8.39 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Furthermore, the results indicated that males under 70 years of age had a higher incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than females, while the rates were similar for both genders between 70 and 74 years. However, this pattern was reversed in individuals over the age of 75, with females exhibiting a higher total incidence, prevalence, and DALYs than males. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs increased with an increase in the socio-demographic index (SDI). The three primary contributors to AF/AFL were high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, and smoking. Majority of risk factors exhibited a unimodal distribution, with a peak between the ages of 50 and 70.

Conclusions

The disease burden of AF/AFL is still severe worldwide and getting worse. To encourage prevention and treatment, systematic regional surveillance of AF/AFL should be put in place.

Global, regional, and national burden of asbestosis from 1990 to 2019 and the implications for prevention and control

BACKGROUND

Asbestosis is a common pneumoconiosis caused by long-term asbestos exposure. Analysis of the burden of asbestosis would help in creating informed public health strategies.

METHODS

Data on asbestosis were analyzed using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to demonstrate temporal trends in the age-standardized rate (ASR) of asbestosis from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, 36,339 incident cases of asbestosis, led to 3572 deaths and 71,225 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019. During 1990-2019, the overall ASRs of incidence and DALYs declined by an annual average of 0.29 % and 0.27 %, with the respective EAPCs being -0.29 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: -0.43, -0.14) and -0.27 (95%CI: -0.53, -0.01). The ASRs of mortality increased with EAPC of 0.65 (95%CI: 0.34, 0.96). Trends in incidence and prevalence rose in females, but declined in males. The asbestosis burden was heterogeneous across regions and countries. The heaviest burden of asbestosis was observed in the United States, India, and China. Trends in ASRs of asbestosis varied across countries/territories. Pronounced increasing trends in incidence and prevalence occurred in Georgia, Iran, and Croatia.

CONCLUSIONS

Decreasing incident trend of asbestosis was observed globally over the past three decades. However, the ongoing asbestosis burden highlighted that asbestosis remained a challenge to public health, and cost-effective measures were required to reduce the asbestosis burden.

[Analysis and prediction of burden of viral hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2044]

OBJECTIVE

To measure the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019, and to predict its changes from 2020 to 2044, so as to provide insights into formulation of the targeted hepatitis C control strategy.

METHODS

The total burden due to hepatitis C-associated diseases in China from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) data resources, and the trends in age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of hepatitis C-associated acute hepatitis C (AHC), chronic liver diseases (CLD) and liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 were evaluated in China from 1990 to 2019 using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). In addition, the changes in the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases were predicted in China from 2020 to 2044 using a Bayesian model.

RESULTS

The prevalence, incidence, mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases all appeared an overall tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = -2.64%, -2.24%, -3.81% and -3.90%, respectively); however, there was a minor rise in the incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C-associated diseases from 2015 to 2019. The overall prevalence of hepatitis C-associated diseases reduced from 2 152.7/105 in 1990 to 1 254.1/105 in 2019 in China, with a reduction of 41.7%. The overall incidence reduced from 87.9/105 in 1990 to 55.0/105 in 2019 in China, with a reduction of 37.4%, and the highest incidence was seen for AHC, followed by CLD and liver cancer. The overall mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases was 4.0/105 and 100.8/105 in China from 1990 to 2019, with CLD showing the largest contributions to the gross mortality and DALY. The mortality and DALY rate of hepatitis C-associated diseases were 5.5/105 and 142.4/105 among men in China in 2019, which were both much higher than among women (2.8/105 and 60.3/105, respectively), and the overall prevalence (1 604.9/105), mortality (30.2/105) and DALYs (437.1/105) of hepatitis C-associated diseases were all highest among patients at ages of 70 years and older, and the highest incidence was seen among patients at ages of 0 to 9 years (167.3/105). The incidence of hepatitis C-associated diseases was predicted to rise in China from 2020 to 2044; however, the DALY rate was projected to appear a tendency towards a decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of hepatitis C-associated diseases showed a tendency towards a decline in China from 1990 to 2019, the burden remained high, and was predicted to slightly rise from 2020 to 2044. High attention should be paid to screening of hepatitis C among infants and treatment among adults.

Global burden and trends of three common road injuries from 1990 to 2019 and the implications for prevention and intervention

BACKGROUND

Analysis on the burden of specific types of road injuries (RIs) in the previous Global burden of disease (GBD) studies is lacking. The present work aimed to analyze the burden of three common RIs using the updated data of the GBD 2019, which would inform policy-making.

METHODS

Data on cyclist road injuries (CRIs), motorcyclist road injuries (MRIs), and motor vehicle road injuries (MVRIs) were extracted from the GBD 2019. Trends of age-standardized rate (ASR) were predicted using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Over the past three decades, the global incident ASRs of CRIs and MRIs presented increasing trends, but that of MVRIs declined slightly. However, trends of death and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) caused by three common RIs decreased in most regions and countries. Particularly, trends in ASRs of years of life lost (YLLs) cuased by RIs decreased more pronouncedly than that of years of life lived with disability (YLDs). The burden of three common RIs showed significant social and demographic characteristics. Low-middle and middle socio-demographic index (SDI) areas had a heavy burden of RIs, particularly CRIs and MRIs. However, the high SDI area undertook a relatively low burden, and presented more pronounced downward trends in death and DALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden and changing trends of three common RIs were geographically heterogeneous. The findings highlighted that increasing incident trends of RIs needed more cost-effective measures of prevention and intervention.

Global, regional, and national burdens of myocarditis, 1990-2019: systematic analysis from GBD 2019 : GBD for myocarditis

OBJECTIVES

Myocarditis, a health-threatening heart disease, is attracting increasing attention. This systematic study was conducted to study the prevalence of disease through the trends of incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over the last 30 years, which would be helpful for the policymakers to better the choices for reasonable decisions.

METHODS

The global, regional, and national burdens of myocarditis from 1990-2019 were analyzed by using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. This study on myocarditis produced new findings according to age, sex, and Social-Demographic Index (SDI) by investigating DALYs, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

RESULTS

The number of myocarditis incidence increased by 62.19%, from 780,410 cases in 1990 to 1,265,770 cases in 2019. The ASIR decreased by 4.42% (95%CI, from -0.26% to -0.21%) over the past 30 years. The number of deaths from myocarditis increased by 65.40% from 19,618 in 1990 to 324,490 in 2019, but the ASDR was relatively stable over the investigated period. ASDR increased in low-middle SDI regions (EAPC=0.48; 95%CI, 0.24 to 0.72) and decreased in low SDI regions (EAPC=-0.97; 95%CI, from -1.05 to -0.89). The age-standardized DALY rate decreased by 1.19% (95%CI, from -1.33% to -1.04%) per year.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the ASIR and DALY for myocarditis decreased and the ASDR was stable over the past 30 years. The risk of incidences and death cases increased with age. Measures should be taken to control the risk of myocarditis in high-burden regions. Medical supplies should be improved in the high-middle SDI regions and middle SDI regions to reduce the deaths from myocarditis in these regions.

Global burden of cardiovascular disease from 1990 to 2019 attributable to dietary factors

BACKGROUND

While dietary factors play a crucial role in the incidence of cardiovascular disease, the specific dietary risk factors vary across regions and require further investigation.

OBJECTIVE

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) due to different dietary factors was analyzed by determining sex, age, and sociodemographic index (SDI) values for 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 and analyzed to determine population attributable fractions (PAFs), mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and trends thereof, for CVDs attributable to dietary risk factors from 1990 to 2019. We used a generalized linear model with a Gaussian distribution to calculate the estimated annual percentage changes (EPACs) in CVD mortality and DALY rates attributable to dietary risk factors. We also used a comparative risk-assessment framework to estimate the CVD mortality and DALYs attributable to dietary risk factors.

RESULTS

Approximately 40% of CVD mortality and DALY rates were attributable to dietary risk factors, with high sodium intake, low whole-grain intake, and low legume intake being the greatest dietary risk factors globally. Moreover, high-SDI regions had the highest PAFs for CVD mortality and DALYs associated with high red and processed meat intake, middle-SDI regions had the highest PAFs with high sodium intake, and low-SDI regions had the highest PAFs with low fruit and vegetable intake. The highest PAFs for CVD mortality and DALYs were associated with low whole-grain intake in 13 and 9 regions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Reducing sodium intake and increasing whole-grain and legume intake should be the top priority worldwide for improving regional diets and thereby decreasing CVD burdens. Other priorities should be set for different SDI-value regions, depending on the predominant dietary risk factors for CVDs in the respective regions.

Trends of the Global Burden of Disease Attributable to Cannabis Use Disorder in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019: Results from the Disease Burden Study 2019

Cannabis is the fourth psychoactive substance to be legalized which are of far-reaching significance to the world. We analyzed data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) to estimate the incidence and prevalence of cannabis use disorder (CUD) and calculated the disease burden of CUD in 204 countries and territories and 21 regions over the past three decades. We reported disease burden due to CUD in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized rate (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and analyzed associations between the burden of CUD and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles. Globally, the number of incidence cases of CUD was estimated to be increasing by 32.3% from 1990 to 2019 and males are nearly double higher than that of female. DALYs increase 38.6% from 1990. Young people aged 20-24 years old with cannabis use disorder have the highest DALYs in 2019, followed by those younger than 20 years old. India, Canada, USA, Qatar, Kenya, and high SDI quintile areas showed a high burden of disease. Nearly 200 million individuals are cannabis users worldwide, and CUD is a notable condition of GBD. The global cultivation of cannabis, rooted in different cultures, diversified access to cannabis, legalization in controversy, the promotion of medical cannabis, and many other factors promote the global cannabis industry is constantly updated and upgraded. It deserves more discussion in the future in terms of pathophysiological mechanisms, socioeconomics, law, and policy improvement.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11469-022-00999-4.

Global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

To date, no study has evaluated trends in the burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2019 study. Herein, we report on the global burden of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases in terms of age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019, based on analysis of GBD 2019 data.

METHODS

The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to determine the trends in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global age-standardized incidence rate showed an upward trend (EAPC = 0.10), whereas the global age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs showed a downward trend (EAPC = - 0.88 and - 0.89, respectively). Low-(187.08 in 2019) and low-middle (178.11 in 2019)SDI regions had much higher age-standardized DALYs. Eastern Europe saw the largest increases in the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs. Lithuania had the largest increase in mortalities caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases(EAPC = 4.61). The age-standardized mortality rates and DALYs were higher in men than in women.

CONCLUSION

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases increased globally; however, both the age-standardized mortality rate and DALYs caused by alcohol-induced cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases showed decreasing trends. Future studies should devise preventive strategies for low and low-middle SDI regions, Eastern Europe, Lithuania, and other high-risk regions.

A comparative study of the disease burden attributable to asbestos in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia between 1990 and 2019

Background

Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia are the main asbestos-producing countries, and all forms of asbestos are carcinogenic to humans. The objective of this study was to estimate the disease burden attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019 in major producing countries, including Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Methods

Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates (ASDR) of disease burden attributable to asbestos by country, age, and sex were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Percentage change and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were used to assess the trends of ASDR and ASMR of disease burden attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019.

Results

Asbestos-related diseases were highly heterogeneous across Global, Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. There was a downward trend in ASMR and ASDR of diseases burden related to asbestos globally. The age-specific mortality rate of disease attributable to asbestos increased in men and women, although it decreased in women aged 85–89, the highest age-specific mortality rate were observed in age 95 + group in men [162.14 (95% UI: 103.76–215.45)] and women [30.58 (95% UI: 14.83–44.33)] per 100 000 population, respectively. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause of death and DALYS attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019 globally and in Brazil, China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. China had the highest percentage change (73.31%) and EAPC [3.41 (95% CI: 2.75–4.08)] in ASMR related to exposure to asbestos in men, with the highest percentage change (73.31%) and EAPC [3.41 (95% CI: 2.75–4.08)] in ASDR in men.

Conclusions

The ASMR and ASDR of disease burden attributable to asbestos decreased between 1990 and 2019 globally. TBL cancer was the leading cause of death and DALYs attributable to asbestos between 1990 and 2019. There has been an increasing trend in mortality and DALYs globally, especially in older men. The burden of disease attributable to asbestos is increasing in China, especially in men.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14437-6.

Global burden of rheumatic heart disease: trends from 1990 to 2019

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a critical public health issue worldwide, and its epidemiological patterns have changed over the decades. This article aimed to estimate the global trends of RHD, and attributable risks from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

Data on RHD burden were explored from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Trends of the RHD burden were estimated using the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and age-standardized rate (ASR).

Results

During 1990–2019, increasing trends in the ASR of incidence and prevalence of RHD were observed worldwide, with the respective EAPCs of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52 to 0.63) and 0.57 (95%CI 0.50 to 0.63). Meanwhile, increasing trends commonly occurred in low and middle Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions and countries. The largest increasing trends in the ASR of incidence and prevalence were seen in Fiji, with the respective EAPCs being 2.17 (95%CI 1.48 to 2.86) and 2.22 (95%CI 1.53 to 2.91). However, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to RHD showed pronounced decreasing trends of ASR globally, in which the EAPCs were − 2.98 (95%CI − 3.03 to − 2.94) and − 2.70 (95%CI − 2.75 to − 2.65), respectively. Meanwhile, decreasing trends were also observed in all SDI areas and geographic regions. The largest decreasing trends of death were observed in Thailand (EAPC = − 9.55, 95%CI − 10.48 to − 8.61). Among the attributable risks, behavioral risk-related death and DALYs caused by RHD had pronounced decreasing trends worldwide and in SDI areas.

Conclusions

Pronounced decreasing trends of death and DALYs caused by RHD were observed in regions and countries from 1990 to 2019, but the RHD burden remains a substantial challenge globally. The results would inform the strategies for more effective prevention and control of RHD.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-022-02829-3.

Spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of melanoma in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: Results from the 2019 global burden of disease study

This study aimed to estimate the latest magnitudes and temporal trends of melanoma burden at the national, regional, and global levels. The data on melanoma incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 came from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the temporal trends and Spearman rank correlation was used to analyze the influential factors of EAPC. From 1990 to 2019, the incident cases of melanoma increased by 170% to 289,950, death increased by 90% to 62,840, and DALYs increased by 67% to 1,707,800 globally. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of melanoma increased globally by an average of 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.93-1.32], while the age-standardized rates of death and DALYs both declined with the EAPC of -0.27 (95% CI: -0.36 to -0.19) and -0.49 (95% CI: -0.57 to -0.41). In 2019, the highest burden of melanoma was observed in Australasia, followed by high-income North America and Europe regions, which all presented an incremental growth in ASIR. The positive association between the EAPC in ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in 2019 (ρ = 0.600, P < 0.001) suggested that countries with higher SDI have experienced a more rapid increase in ASIR of melanoma. In conclusion, the burden of melanoma is increasing globally but differed greatly across the world. Notably, the high burden areas are facing a continuing increase in incidence, which implies more targeted strategies should be taken for reducing the increasing melanoma burden.

Global burden analysis and AutoGluon prediction of accidental carbon monoxide poisoning by Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Accidental carbon monoxide poisoning (ACOP) is the most common occupational toxic disease, but related data are scarce or non-existent in many countries. This article investigates the global burden of ACOP based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) and the World Bank database. In our study, numbers and age-standardized rates of ACOP prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs) were analyzed at global, regional, and national level. Besides, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rates were calculated by generalizing the linear model. Age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) are included to access their internal relevance. Globally, in 2019, there were approximately 0.97 million ACOP incidence cases (95% CI 0.66 million to 1.4 million), and 41,142 (95% UI 32,957 to 45,934) people died from it. Compared with 1990, the morbidity and mortality of ACOP in 2019 are on a downward trend. By sexes, from 1990 to 2019, females have higher morbidity and lower mortality. This correlation enables us to evaluate the level and status of public health services in various countries. We also evaluated the correlation between ACOP and economic parameters and use newly released machine learning tool-AutoGluon to predict the epidemiology of ACOP. The results of this study can be used by the health authorities to consider the burden of ACOP that could be addressed with preventive and therapeutic measures.

Trends in burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in countries, regions, and worldwide from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease study

Background

Antituberculosis-drug resistance is an important public health issue, and its epidemiological patterns has dramatically changed in recent decades. This study aimed to estimate the trends of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), which can be used to inform health strategies.

Methods

Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease study 2017. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the trends of MDR-TB burden at global, regional, and national level from 1990 to 2017 using the linear regression model.

Results

Globally, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of MDR-TB burden including incidence, prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) had pronounced increasing trends from 1990 to 1999, with the EAPCs were 17.63 [95% confidence interval (CI): 10.77–24.92], 17.57 (95% CI 11.51–23.95), 21.21 (95% CI 15.96–26.69), and 21.90 (95% CI 16.55–27.50), respectively. Particularly, the largest increasing trends were seen in areas and countries with low and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI). However, the trends in incidence, prevalence, death and DALYs of MDR-TB decreased globally from 2000 to 2017, with the respective EAPCs were − 1.37 (95% CI − 1.62 to − 1.12), − 1.32 (95% CI − 1.38 to − 1.26), − 3.30 (95% CI − 3.56 to − 3.04) and − 3.32 (95% CI − 3.59 to − 3.06). Decreasing trends of MDR-TB were observed in most regions and countries, particularly that of death and DALYs in Slovenia were − 18.96 (95% CI − 20.82 to − 17.06) and -19.35 (95% CI − 21.10 to − 17.55), respectively. Whereas the pronounced increasing trends of MDR-TB occurred in Papua New Guinea, Singapore, and Australia.

Conclusions

The ASR of MDR-TB showed pronounced decreasing trends from 2000 to 2017. However, the MDR-TB burden remains a substantial challenge to the TB control globally, and requires effective control strategies and healthcare systems.