Measures of Malaria Burden after Long-Lasting Insecticidal Net Distribution and Indoor Residual Spraying at Three Sites in Uganda: A Prospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) are the primary vector control interventions used to prevent malaria in Africa. Although both interventions are effective in some settings, high-quality evidence is rarely available to evaluate their effectiveness following deployment by a national malaria control program. In Uganda, we measured changes in key malaria indicators following universal LLIN distribution in three sites, with the addition of IRS at one of these sites.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Comprehensive malaria surveillance was conducted from October 1, 2011, to March 31, 2016, in three sub-counties with relatively low (Walukuba), moderate (Kihihi), and high transmission (Nagongera). Between 2013 and 2014, universal LLIN distribution campaigns were conducted in all sites, and in December 2014, IRS with the carbamate bendiocarb was initiated in Nagongera. High-quality surveillance evaluated malaria metrics and mosquito exposure before and after interventions through (a) enhanced health-facility-based surveillance to estimate malaria test positivity rate (TPR), expressed as the number testing positive for malaria/number tested for malaria (number of children tested for malaria: Walukuba = 42,833, Kihihi = 28,790, and Nagongera = 38,690); (b) cohort studies to estimate the incidence of malaria, expressed as the number of episodes per person-year [PPY] at risk (number of children observed: Walukuba = 340, Kihihi = 380, and Nagongera = 361); and (c) entomology surveys to estimate household-level human biting rate (HBR), expressed as the number of female Anopheles mosquitoes collected per house-night of collection (number of households observed: Walukuba = 117, Kihihi = 107, and Nagongera = 107). The LLIN distribution campaign substantially increased LLIN coverage levels at the three sites to between 65.0% and 95.5% of households with at least one LLIN. In Walukuba, over the 28-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with no change in the incidence of malaria (0.39 episodes PPY pre-intervention versus 0.20 post-intervention; adjusted rate ratio [aRR] = 1.02, 95% CI 0.36-2.91, p = 0.97) and non-significant reductions in the TPR (26.5% pre-intervention versus 26.2% post-intervention; aRR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.46-1.06, p = 0.09) and HBR (1.07 mosquitoes per house-night pre-intervention versus 0.71 post-intervention; aRR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.14-1.18, p = 0.10). In Kihihi, over the 21-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria (1.77 pre-intervention versus 1.89 post-intervention; aRR = 0.65, 95% CI 0.43-0.98, p = 0.04) but no significant change in the TPR (49.3% pre-intervention versus 45.9% post-intervention; aRR = 0.83, 95% 0.58-1.18, p = 0.30) or HBR (4.06 pre-intervention versus 2.44 post-intervention; aRR = 0.71, 95% CI 0.30-1.64, p = 0.40). In Nagongera, over the 12-mo post-intervention period, universal LLIN distribution was associated with a reduction in the TPR (45.3% pre-intervention versus 36.5% post-intervention; aRR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.76-0.88, p < 0.001) but no significant change in the incidence of malaria (2.82 pre-intervention versus 3.28 post-intervention; aRR = 1.10, 95% 0.76-1.59, p = 0.60) or HBR (41.04 pre-intervention versus 20.15 post-intervention; aRR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.31-2.47, p = 0.80). The addition of three rounds of IRS at ~6-mo intervals in Nagongera was followed by clear decreases in all outcomes: incidence of malaria (3.25 pre-intervention versus 0.63 post-intervention; aRR = 0.13, 95% CI 0.07-0.27, p < 0.001), TPR (37.8% pre-intervention versus 15.0% post-intervention; aRR = 0.54, 95% CI 0.49-0.60, p < 0.001), and HBR (18.71 pre-intervention versus 3.23 post-intervention; aRR = 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.50, p < 0.001). High levels of pyrethroid resistance were documented at all three study sites. Limitations of the study included the observational study design, the lack of contemporaneous control groups, and that the interventions were implemented under programmatic conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

Universal distribution of LLINs at three sites with varying transmission intensity was associated with modest declines in the burden of malaria for some indicators, but the addition of IRS at the highest transmission site was associated with a marked decline in the burden of malaria for all indicators. In highly endemic areas of Africa with widespread pyrethroid resistance, IRS using alternative insecticide formulations may be needed to achieve substantial gains in malaria control.

Social inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake for children and adolescents in Montreal, Canada

BACKGROUND

The success of current and prospective COVID-19 vaccine campaigns for children and adolescents will in part depend on the willingness of parents to accept vaccination. This study examined social determinants of parental COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake for children and adolescents.

METHODS

We used cross-sectional data from an ongoing COVID-19 cohort study in Montreal, Canada and included all parents of 2 to 18-year-olds who completed an online questionnaire between May 18 and June 26, 2021 (n = 809). We calculated child age-adjusted prevalence estimates of vaccine acceptance by parental education, race/ethnicity, birthplace, household income, and neighbourhood, and used multinomial logistic regression to estimate adjusted prevalence differences (aPD) and ratios (aPR). Social determinants of vaccine uptake were examined for the vaccine-eligible sample of 12 to 18 year-olds (n = 306).

RESULTS

Intention to vaccinate children against COVID-19 was high, with only 12.4% of parents unlikely to have their child vaccinated. Parents with younger children were less likely to accept vaccination, as were those from lower-income households, racialized groups, and those born outside Canada. Children from households with annual incomes <$100,000 had 18.4 percent lower prevalence of being vaccinated/very likely vaccinated compared to household incomes ≥$150,000 (95% CI: 10.1 to 26.7). Racialized parents reported greater unwillingness to vaccinate vs. White parents (aPD = 10.3; 95% CI: 1.5, 19.1). Vaccine-eligible adolescents from the most deprived neighbourhood were half as likely to be vaccinated compared to those from the least deprived neighbourhood (aPR = 0.48; 95% CI: 0.18 to 0.77).

INTERPRETATION

This study identified marked social inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake for children and adolescents. Efforts are needed to reach disadvantaged and marginalized populations with tailored strategies that promote informed decision making and facilitate access to vaccination.

A scoping review of malaria forecasting: past work and future directions

OBJECTIVES

There is a growing body of literature on malaria forecasting methods and the objective of our review is to identify and assess methods, including predictors, used to forecast malaria.

DESIGN

Scoping review. Two independent reviewers searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study.

INFORMATION SOURCES

Search strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE, ProQuest Dissertations & Theses and Web of Science. Key journals and websites were also manually searched.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR INCLUDED STUDIES

We included studies that forecasted incidence, prevalence or epidemics of malaria over time. A description of the forecasting model and an assessment of the forecast accuracy of the model were requirements for inclusion. Studies were restricted to human populations and to autochthonous transmission settings.

RESULTS

We identified 29 different studies that met our inclusion criteria for this review. The forecasting approaches included statistical modelling, mathematical modelling and machine learning methods. Climate-related predictors were used consistently in forecasting models, with the most common predictors being rainfall, relative humidity, temperature and the normalised difference vegetation index. Model evaluation was typically based on a reserved portion of data and accuracy was measured in a variety of ways including mean-squared error and correlation coefficients. We could not compare the forecast accuracy of models from the different studies as the evaluation measures differed across the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Applying different forecasting methods to the same data, exploring the predictive ability of non-environmental variables, including transmission reducing interventions and using common forecast accuracy measures will allow malaria researchers to compare and improve models and methods, which should improve the quality of malaria forecasting.

The associations between malaria, interventions, and the environment: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is driven by multiple factors, including complex and multifaceted connections between malaria transmission, socioeconomic conditions, climate and interventions. Forecasting models should account for all significant drivers of malaria incidence although it is first necessary to understand the relationship between malaria burden and the various determinants of risk to inform the development of forecasting models. In this study, the associations between malaria risk, environmental factors, and interventions were evaluated through a systematic review.

METHODS

Five electronic databases (CAB Abstracts, EMBASE, Global Health, MEDLINE and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses) were searched for studies that included both the effects of the environment and interventions on malaria within the same statistical model. Studies were restricted to quantitative analyses and health outcomes of malaria mortality or morbidity, outbreaks, or transmission suitability. Meta-analyses were conducted on a subset of results using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Eleven studies of 2248 potentially relevant articles that met inclusion criteria were identified for the systematic review and two meta-analyses based upon five results each were performed. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index was not found to be statistically significant associated with malaria with a pooled OR of 1.10 (95% CI 0.07, 1.71). Bed net ownership was statistically associated with decreasing risk of malaria, when controlling for the effects of environment with a pooled OR of 0.75 (95% CI 0.60, 0.95). In general, environmental effects on malaria, while controlling for the effect of interventions, were variable and showed no particular pattern. Bed nets ownership, use and distribution, have a significant protective effect while controlling for environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS

There are a limited number of studies which have simultaneously evaluated both environmental and interventional effects on malaria risk. Poor statistical reporting and a lack of common metrics were important challenges for this review, which must be addressed to ensure reproducibility and quality research. A comprehensive or inclusive approach to identifying malaria determinants using standardized indicators would allow for a better understanding of its epidemiology, which is crucial to improve future malaria risk estimations.

What role for One Health in the COVID-19 pandemic?

This commentary discusses the contributions that One Health (OH) principles can make in improving the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight four areas where the application of OH has the potential to significantly improve the governance of infectious diseases in general, and of COVID-19 in particular. First, more integrated surveillance infrastructure and monitoring of the occurrence of infectious diseases in both humans and animals can facilitate the detection of new infectious agents sharing similar genotypes across species and the monitoring of the spatio-temporal spread of such infections. This knowledge can guide public and animal health officials in their response measures. Second, application of the OH approach can improve coordination and active collaboration among stakeholders representing apparently incompatible domains. Third, the OH approach highlights the need for an effective institutional landscape, facilitating adequate regulation of hotspots for transmission of infectious agents among animals and humans, such as live animal markets. And finally, OH thinking emphasizes the need for equitable solutions to infectious disease challenges, suggesting that policy response mechanisms and interventions need to be reflective of the disproportionate disease burdens borne by vulnerable and marginalized populations, or by persons providing health care and other essential services to those sick.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies Among Children in School and Day Care in Montreal, Canada

IMPORTANCE

Quebec prioritized in-person learning after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, with school closures being implemented temporarily in selected schools or in hot-spot areas. Quebec's decision to keep most schools open was controversial, especially in Montreal, which was the epicenter of Canada's first and second waves; therefore, understanding the extent to which children were infected with SARS-CoV-2 provides important information for decisions about school closures.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in children and teenagers in 4 neighborhoods of Montreal, Canada.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study (the Enfants et COVID-19: Étude de séroprévalence [EnCORE] study) enrolled a convenience sample of children aged 2 to 17 years between October 22, 2020, and March 22, 2021, in Montreal, Canada.

EXPOSURES

Potential exposure to SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, collected using dried blood spots (DBSs) and analyzed with a research-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Parents also completed an online questionnaire that included questions on self-reported COVID-19 symptoms and tests, along with sociodemographic questions.

RESULTS

This study included 1632 participants who provided a DBS sample from 30 day cares, 22 primary schools, and 11 secondary schools. The mean (SD) age of the children who provided a DBS sample was 9.0 (4.4) years; 801 (49%) were female individuals, with 354 participants (22%) from day cares, 725 (44%) from primary schools, and 553 (34%) from secondary schools. Most parents had at least a bachelor's degree (1228 [75%]), and 210 (13%) self-identified as being a racial or ethnic minority. The mean seroprevalence was 5.8% (95% CI, 4.6%-7.0%) but increased over time from 3.2% (95% CI, 0.7%-5.8%) in October to November 2020 to 8.4% (95% CI, 4.4%-12.4%) in March to April 2021. Of the 95 children with positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody results, 78 (82%) were not tested or tested negative with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing, and all experienced mild (49 [52%]) or no clinical symptoms (46 [48%]). The children of parents who self-identified as belonging to a racial and ethnic minority group were more likely to be seropositive compared with children of White parents (adjusted seroprevalence ratio, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These results provide a benchmark of the seroprevalence status in Canadian children. The findings suggest that there was more transmission occurring in children compared with what was being detected by RT-PCR, although children experienced few or mild symptoms. It will be important to continue monitoring the serological status of children, particularly in the context of new COVID-19 variants of concern and in the absence of mass vaccination campaigns targeting young children.

Reconstruction of Zika Virus Introduction in Brazil

We estimated the speed of Zika virus introduction in Brazil by using confirmed cases at the municipal level. Our models indicate a southward pattern of introduction starting from the northeastern coast and a pattern of movement toward the western border with an average speed of spread of 42 km/day or 15,367 km/year.

Learning from public health and hospital resilience to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: protocol for a multiple case study (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Japan, and Mali)

BACKGROUND

All prevention efforts currently being implemented for COVID-19 are aimed at reducing the burden on strained health systems and human resources. There has been little research conducted to understand how SARS-CoV-2 has affected health care systems and professionals in terms of their work. Finding effective ways to share the knowledge and insight between countries, including lessons learned, is paramount to the international containment and management of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this project is to compare the pandemic response to COVID-19 in Brazil, Canada, China, France, Japan, and Mali. This comparison will be used to identify strengths and weaknesses in the response, including challenges for health professionals and health systems.

METHODS

We will use a multiple case study approach with multiple levels of nested analysis. We have chosen these countries as they represent different continents and different stages of the pandemic. We will focus on several major hospitals and two public health interventions (contact tracing and testing). It will employ a multidisciplinary research approach that will use qualitative data through observations, document analysis, and interviews, as well as quantitative data based on disease surveillance data and other publicly available data. Given that the methodological approaches of the project will be largely qualitative, the ethical risks are minimal. For the quantitative component, the data being used will be made publicly available.

DISCUSSION

We will deliver lessons learned based on a rigorous process and on strong evidence to enable operational-level insight for national and international stakeholders.

Water, sanitation, and hygiene risk factors of acute diarrhea among children under five years in the Gaza Strip

This cross-sectional community household-based study aims to evaluate the water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities in the Gaza Strip and to investigate their associations with the occurrence of acute diarrhea among children under five years. A survey using a structured questionnaire was conducted on 1,857 households with an child under five years from August 2017 to June 2018. About 69.7% of heads of households reported a diarrheal episode among their children during the two months preceding the survey. Multivariable logistic regression showed that sewage water observed around the households was associated with an increased risk of acute diarrhea (AOR = 2.45; P &lt; 0.001; 95% CI: 1.83–3.27). Nevertheless, the allocation of a special water tank for desalinated drinking water at home (AOR = 0.3; P = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.1–0.8), the connection of households to a closed sewerage system (AOR = 0.56; P &lt; 0.001; 95% CI: 0.43–0.73), and handwashing practices before and after eating (AOR = 0.42; P = 0.003; 95% CI: 0.24–0.74 and AOR = 0.50; P = 0.03; 95% CI: 0.26–0.94, respectively), as well as using desalinated water sources for drinking purposes, were inversely associated with the incidence of acute diarrhea among children under five. Further improvements in the existing sewerage system and the intensification of sanitation and hygiene promotion programs at the household levels may reduce the risk of acute diarrhea among children under five years in the Gaza Strip.

Determining health-care facility catchment areas in Uganda using data on malaria-related visits

OBJECTIVE

To illustrate the use of a new method for defining the catchment areas of health-care facilities based on their utilization.

METHODS

The catchment areas of six health-care facilities in Uganda were determined using the cumulative case ratio: the ratio of the observed to expected utilization of a facility for a particular condition by patients from small administrative areas. The cumulative case ratio for malaria-related visits to these facilities was determined using data from the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project. Catchment areas were also derived using various straight line and road network distances from the facility. Subsequently, the 1-year cumulative malaria case rate was calculated for each catchment area, as determined using the three methods.

FINDINGS

The 1-year cumulative malaria case rate varied considerably with the method used to define the catchment areas. With the cumulative case ratio approach, the catchment area could include noncontiguous areas. With the distance approaches, the denominator increased substantially with distance, whereas the numerator increased only slightly. The largest cumulative case rate per 1000 population was for the Kamwezi facility: 234.9 (95% confidence interval, CI: 226.2-243.8) for a straight-line distance of 5 km, 193.1 (95% CI: 186.8-199.6) for the cumulative case ratio approach and 156.1 (95% CI: 150.9-161.4) for a road network distance of 5 km.

CONCLUSION

Use of the cumulative case ratio for malaria-related visits to determine health-care facility catchment areas was feasible. Moreover, this approach took into account patients' actual addresses, whereas using distance from the facility did not.

Forecasting malaria in a highly endemic country using environmental and clinical predictors

Background

Malaria thrives in poor tropical and subtropical countries where local resources are limited. Accurate disease forecasts can provide public and clinical health services with the information needed to implement targeted approaches for malaria control that make effective use of limited resources. The objective of this study was to determine the relevance of environmental and clinical predictors of malaria across different settings in Uganda.

Methods

Forecasting models were based on health facility data collected by the Uganda Malaria Surveillance Project and satellite-derived rainfall, temperature, and vegetation estimates from 2006 to 2013. Facility-specific forecasting models of confirmed malaria were developed using multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average models and produced weekly forecast horizons over a 52-week forecasting period.

Results

The model with the most accurate forecasts varied by site and by forecast horizon. Clinical predictors were retained in the models with the highest predictive power for all facility sites. The average error over the 52 forecasting horizons ranged from 26 to 128% whereas the cumulative burden forecast error ranged from 2 to 22%.

Conclusions

Clinical data, such as drug treatment, could be used to improve the accuracy of malaria predictions in endemic settings when coupled with environmental predictors. Further exploration of malaria forecasting is necessary to improve its accuracy and value in practice, including examining other environmental and intervention predictors, including insecticide-treated nets.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0758-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Residential address errors in public health surveillance data: a description and analysis of the impact on geocoding

The residential addresses of persons with reportable communicable diseases are used increasingly for spatial monitoring and cluster detection, and public health may direct interventions based upon the results of routine spatial surveillance. There has been little assessment, however, of the quality of address data in reportable disease notifications and of the corresponding impact of these errors on geocoding and routine public health practices. The objectives of this study were to examine address errors for a selected reportable disease in a large urban center in Canada and to assess the impact of identified errors on geocoding and the estimated spatial distribution of the disease. We extracted data for all notifications of campylobacteriosis from the Montreal public health department from 1995 to 2008 and used an address verification algorithm to determine the validity of the residential address for each case and to suggest corrections for invalid addresses. We assessed the types of address errors as well as the resulting positional errors, calculating the distance between the original address and the correct address as well as changes in disease density. Address errors and missing addresses were prevalent in the public health records (10% and 5%, respectively) and they influenced the observed distribution of campylobacteriosis in Montreal, with address correction changing case location by a median of 1.1 km. Further examination of the extent of address errors in public health data is essential, as is the investigation of how these errors impact routine public health functions.

Machine learning and dengue forecasting: Comparing random forests and artificial neural networks for predicting dengue burden at national and sub-national scales in Colombia

The robust estimate and forecast capability of random forests (RF) has been widely recognized, however this ensemble machine learning method has not been widely used in mosquito-borne disease forecasting. In this study, two sets of RF models were developed at the national (pooled department-level data) and department level in Colombia to predict weekly dengue cases for 12-weeks ahead. A pooled national model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) was also developed and used as a comparator to the RF models. The various predictors included historic dengue cases, satellite-derived estimates for vegetation, precipitation, and air temperature, as well as population counts, income inequality, and education. Our RF model trained on the pooled national data was more accurate for department-specific weekly dengue cases estimation compared to a local model trained only on the department's data. Additionally, the forecast errors of the national RF model were smaller to those of the national pooled ANN model and were increased with the forecast horizon increasing from one-week-ahead (mean absolute error, MAE: 9.32) to 12-weeks ahead (MAE: 24.56). There was considerable variation in the relative importance of predictors dependent on forecast horizon. The environmental and meteorological predictors were relatively important for short-term dengue forecast horizons while socio-demographic predictors were relevant for longer-term forecast horizons. This study demonstrates the potential of RF in dengue forecasting with a feasible approach of using a national pooled model to forecast at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, including sociodemographic predictors is likely to be helpful in capturing longer-term dengue trends.

The intersectional jeopardy of disability, gender and sexual and reproductive health: experiences and recommendations of women and men with disabilities in Northern Uganda

The 2030 Sustainable Development Goals committed to "Leave No One Behind" regardless of social identity. While access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services has improved globally, people with disabilities continue to face enormous barriers to SRH, infringing on their SRH rights (SRHR). Uganda adopted pro-disability legislation to promote the rights of people with disabilities. Despite these legal instruments, SRHR of people with disabilities continue to be violated and denied. To address this, we sought to understand and document how people with disabilities perceive the relationships between their use of SRH services, legislation, and health policy in three districts of the post-conflict Northern region of Uganda. Through an intersectionality-informed analysis, we interviewed 32 women and men with different types of impairments (physical, sensory and mental) and conducted two focus groups with 12 hearing and non-hearing disabled people as well as non-participant observations at seven health facilities. We found that disabled people's access to SHR services is shaped by the intersections of gender, disability, and violence, and that individuals with disabilities experienced discrimination across both private-not-for-profit and public health facilities. They also encountered numerous physical, attitudinal, and communication accessibility barriers. Despite policy implementation challenges, people with disabilities expected to exercise their rights and made concrete multi-level recommendations to redress situations of inequity and disadvantages in SRH service utilisation. Intersectionality revealed blind spots in policy implementation and service utilisation gaps. Universal health coverage can be operationalised in actionable measures where its universality meets with social justice.

Interventions for vector-borne diseases focused on housing and hygiene in urban areas: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Over half the world's human populations are currently at risk from vector-borne diseases (VBDs), and the heaviest burden is borne by the world's poorest people, communities, and countries. The aim of this study was to conduct a review on VBD interventions relevant to housing and hygiene (including sanitation and waste management) in urban areas.

MAIN BODY

We conducted a scoping review, which involved systematically searching peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 2000 and 2016 using five scientific databases and one database for grey literature. Different data extraction tools were used for data coding and extraction. We assessed the quality of each study using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool and extracted descriptive characteristics and data about implementation process and transferability from all studies using the Template for Intervention Description and Replication and ASTAIRE (a tool for analyzing the transferability of health promotion interventions) tools. We reviewed 44 studies. Overall, the studies were judged to be of high risk for bias. Our results suggest multifaceted interventions, particularly community-based interventions, have the potential to achieve wider and more sustained effects than do standard vertical single-component programs. The evaluations of multifaceted interventions tend to include integrated evaluations, using not only entomological indicators but also acceptability and sustainability indicators.

CONCLUSIONS

This review highlighted the important need for higher quality research in VBDs and improved and standardized reporting of interventions. Significant research gaps were found regarding qualitative research and implementation research, and results highlighted the need for more interventions focus on sanitation and hygiene practices.

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014-2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014-2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses' reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21-70%) followed by Zika (6-45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses' reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

Implementation challenges of an integrated One Health surveillance system in humanitarian settings: A qualitative study in Palestine

Objectives

Several factors have changed interactions between people, animals, plants, and the environment - renewing the relevance of the One Health surveillance system in the fight against zoonotic diseases such as COVID-19. Therefore, this study aimed to explore barriers to implementing an integrated One Health surveillance system in Palestine.

Methods

This qualitative study was conducted from April 2020 until August 2020. Data were collected using semi-structured interview guides. Seven key stakeholders were interviewed during data collection. A thematic analysis was performed.

Results

Four overarching themes emerged explaining barriers to integrated implementation of the One Health surveillance system. They are lack of policy coherence, limited financial resources, poor governance and leadership, and lack of One Health training programmes.

Conclusion

Improved understanding of the transmission and effective control (including One Health approach) of zoonotic disease and better governance and leadership are critical in the diseases that threaten public health, such as the COVID-19.

Assessing temporal associations between environmental factors and malaria morbidity at varying transmission settings in Uganda

Background

Environmental factors play a major role in transmission of malaria given their relationship to both the development and survival of the mosquito and parasite. The associations between environmental factors and malaria can be used to inform the development of early warning systems for increases in malaria burden. The objective of this study was to assess temporal relationships between rainfall, temperature and vegetation with malaria morbidity across three different transmission settings in Uganda.

Methods

Temporal relationships between environmental factors (weekly total rainfall, mean day time temperature and enhanced vegetation index series) and malaria morbidity (weekly malaria case count data and test positivity rate series) over the period January 2010–May 2013 in three sites located in varying malaria transmission settings in Uganda was explored using cross-correlation with pre-whitening. Sites included Kamwezi (low transmission), Kasambya (moderate transmission) and Nagongera (high transmission).

Results

Nagongera received the most rain (30.6 mm) and experienced, on average, the highest daytime temperatures (29.8 °C) per week. In the study period, weekly TPR and number of malaria cases were highest at Kasambya and lowest at Kamwezi. The largest cross-correlation coefficients between environmental factors and malaria morbidity for each site was 0.27 for Kamwezi (rainfall and cases), 0.21 for Kasambya (vegetation and TPR), and −0.27 for Nagongera (daytime temperature and TPR). Temporal associations between environmental factors (rainfall, temperature and vegetation) with malaria morbidity (number of malaria cases and TPR) varied by transmission setting. Longer time lags were observed at Kamwezi and Kasambya compared to Nagongera in the relationship between rainfall and number of malaria cases. Comparable time lags were observed at Kasambya and Nagongera in the relationship between temperature and malaria morbidity. Temporal analysis of vegetation with malaria morbidity revealed longer lags at Kasambya compared to those observed at the other two sites.

Conclusions

This study showed that temporal associations between environmental factors with malaria morbidity vary by transmission setting in Uganda. This suggests the need to incorporate local transmission differences when developing malaria early warning systems that have environmental predictors in Uganda. This will result in development of more accurate early warning systems, which are a prerequisite for effective malaria control in such a setting.

A qualitative study of health information technology in the Canadian public health system

Background

Although the adoption of health information technology (HIT) has advanced in Canada over the past decade, considerable challenges remain in supporting the development, broad adoption, and effective use of HIT in the public health system. Policy makers and practitioners have long recognized that improvements in HIT infrastructure are necessary to support effective and efficient public health practice. The objective of this study was to identify aspects of health information technology (HIT) policy related to public health in Canada that have succeeded, to identify remaining challenges, and to suggest future directions to improve the adoption and use of HIT in the public health system.

Methods

A qualitative case study was performed with 24 key stakeholders representing national and provincial organizations responsible for establishing policy and strategic direction for health information technology.

Results

Identified benefits of HIT in public health included improved communication among jurisdictions, increased awareness of the need for interoperable systems, and improvement in data standardization. Identified barriers included a lack of national vision and leadership, insufficient investment, and poor conceptualization of the priority areas for implementing HIT in public health.

Conclusions

The application of HIT in public health should focus on automating core processes and identifying innovative applications of HIT to advance public health outcomes. The Public Health Agency of Canada should develop the expertise to lead public health HIT policy and should establish a mechanism for coordinating public health stakeholder input on HIT policy.

Decentralized control of human visceral leishmaniasis in endemic urban areas of Brazil: a literature review

OBJECTIVES

Human migration and concomitant HIV infections are likely to bring about major changes in the epidemiology of some parasitic infections in Brazil. Human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) control is particularly fraught with intricacies. It is against a backdrop of decentralized health care that the complex HVL control initiatives are brought to bear. This comprehensive review aims to explore the obstacles facing decentralized HVL control in urban endemic areas in Brazil.

METHOD

A literature search was carried out in December 2015 by means of three databases: MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Web of Science.

RESULTS

Although there have been many strides that have been made in elucidating the eco-epidemiology of Leishmania infantum, which forms the underpinnings of the national control program, transmission risk factors for HVL are still insufficiently elucidated in urban settings. Decentralized HVL epidemiological surveillance and control for animal reservoirs and vectors may compromise sustainability. In addition, it may hamper timely human HVL case management. With the burgeoning of the HIV-HVL co-infection, the potential human transmission may be underestimated.

CONCLUSION

HVL is a disease with focal transmission at a critical juncture, which warrants that the bottlenecks facing the control program within contexts of decentralized healthcare systems be taken into account. In addition, HIV-driven HVL epidemics may substantially increase the transmission potential of the human reservoir. Calculating the basic reproductive number to fine-tune interventions will have to take into consideration the specific socio-economic development context.

The Impact of Multiple Rounds of Indoor Residual Spraying on Malaria Incidence and Hemoglobin Levels in a High-Transmission Setting

BACKGROUND

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) is widely used as a vector control measure, although there are conflicting findings of its effectiveness in reducing malaria incidence. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of multiple IRS rounds on malaria incidence and hemoglobin levels in a cohort of children in rural southeastern Uganda.

METHODS

The study was based upon a dynamic cohort of children aged 0.5-10 years enrolled from August 2011 to June 2017 in Nagongera Subcounty. Confirmed malaria infections and hemoglobin levels were recorded over time for each participant. After each of 4 rounds of IRS, malaria incidence, hemoglobin levels, and parasite density were evaluated and compared with pre-IRS levels. Analyses were carried out at the participant level while accounting for repeated measures and clustering by household.

RESULTS

Incidence rate ratios comparing post-IRS to pre-IRS incidence rates for age groups 0-3, 3-5, and 5-11 were 0.108 (95% confidence interval [CI], .078-.149), 0.173 (95% CI, .136-.222), and 0.226 (95% CI, .187-.274), respectively. The mean hemoglobin levels significantly increased from 11.01 (pre-IRS) to 12.18 g/dL (post-IRS).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the policy recommendation of IRS usage in a stable and perennial transmission area to rapidly reduce malaria transmission.

Containment measures for emerging and re-emerging vector-borne and other infectious diseases of poverty in urban settings: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The emergence and re-emergence of vector-borne and other infectious diseases of poverty pose a threat to the health of populations living in urban and low-income settings. A detailed understanding of intervention strategies, including effectiveness of past outbreak containment, is necessary to improve future practices. The objective was to determine what is known about the effectiveness of containment measures for emerging and re-emerging vector-borne and other infectious diseases of poverty in urban settings and identify research gaps and implications for public health practice.

MAIN BODY

We conducted a scoping review and systematically searched peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 2000 and 2016. Different data extraction tools were used for data coding and extraction, and data on implementation process and transferability were extracted from all studies. A quality assessment was conducted for each included study. We screened 205 full-text articles and reports for a total of 31 articles included in the review. The quality of the studies was generally low to moderate. The largest body of evidence concerned control activities for Ebola virus and dengue fever. The majority of interventions (87%) relied on multiple types of measures, which were grouped into four categories: 1) healthcare provision; 2) epidemiological investigation and/or surveillance; 3) environmental or sanitary interventions; and 4) community-based interventions. The quality of the majority of studies (90%) was poor or moderate, and one-third of the studies did not provide a clear description of the outcomes and of the procedures and/or tools used for the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results highlight the difficulty of establishing causation when assessing the effect of containment measures. Studies that extend beyond solely reporting on effectiveness and take into account the complexity of real-world settings are urgently needed. We recommend the allocation of research efforts to the evaluation of the implementation processes of interventions as well as their comprehensive and systematic description using validated checklists.

How are large-scale One Health initiatives targeting infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance evaluated? A scoping review

While One Health initiatives are gaining in popularity, it is unclear if and how they are evaluated when implementation at scale is intended. The main purpose of this scoping review was to describe how One Health initiatives targeting infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance at a large scale are evaluated. Secondary objectives included identifying the main facilitators and barriers to the implementation and success of these initiatives, and how their impacts were assessed. Twenty-three studies evaluating One Health initiatives were eligible. Most studies included the human (n = 22) and animal (n = 15) sectors; only four included the environment sector. The types of evaluated initiative (non-exclusive) included governance (n = 5), knowledge (n = 6), protection (n = 17), promotion (n = 16), prevention (n = 9), care (n = 8), advocacy (n = 10) and capacity (n = 10). Studies used normative (n = 4) and evaluative (n = 20) approaches to assess the One Health initiatives, the latter including impact (n = 19), implementation (n = 8), and performance (n = 7) analyses. Structural and economic, social, political, communication and coordination-related factors, as well as ontological factors, were identified as both facilitators and barriers for successful One Health initiatives. These results identified a wide range of evaluation methods and indicators used to demonstrate One Health's added values, strengths, and limitations: the inherent complexity of the One Health approach leads to the use of multiple types of evaluation. The strengths and remaining gaps in the evaluation of such initiative highlight the relevance of comprehensive, mixed-method, context-sensitive evaluation frameworks to inform and support the implementation of One Health initiatives by stakeholders in different governance settings.

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on the Palestinian family: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

The current study aims to understand and assess the consequences of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on Palestinian families.

METHODS

This online community-based cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted between 19 April 2020 and 5 June 2020, using a validated questionnaire. The questionnaire comprised of three sections: sociodemographic characteristics, living conditions, and impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. A convenience sampling method was used to select participants.

RESULTS

A total of 570 adults aged ⩾18 years participated in the study. Of them, 258 (45.3%), 120 (21%), and 192 (33.7%) were residing in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and East Jerusalem, respectively. A large portion of participants (73.2%) reported that the containment measures of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had caused an excessive burden on their families; 549 (96.3%) revealed that water supplies were not always available at home. However, paying attention to personal hygiene and home cleaning was more than usual before the announcement of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The mean times of going out of their homes have dropped significantly following the onset of the pandemic, p value = 0.001 (95% confidence interval). In addition, 192 (33.7%) participants reported that they changed to working remotely from home with 66 (11.6%) having lost their employment.

CONCLUSION

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic was associated with an additional burden on the Palestinian families. Moreover, we suggest discussing the obtained results with local and national stakeholders to ensure that they know to improve their actions.