Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Progress in controlling the transmission of schistosome parasites in Southern Ethiopia: the Geshiyaro Project in the Wolaita Zone

BACKGROUND

This paper describes changes in the prevalence and intensity of schistosome parasite infections in a project integrating mass drug administration (MDA), water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH), and behavioral change interventions.

METHODS

The Geshiyaro Project comprises three intervention arms. Arm 1 is subdivided into "Arm 1 pilot" (one district) and Arm 1 (four other districts), both receiving integrated community-wide MDA with intensive WaSH interventions. Arm 2 involves 17 districts with community-wide MDA interventions, while Arm 3 serves as a control with school-based MDA interventions in three districts. A total of 150 individuals, stratified by age group, were randomly selected from each of the 45 sentinel sites. Arm sizes were 584 (Arm 1 pilot), 1636 (Arm 1), 2203 (Arm 2), and 2238 (Arm 3). Statistical tests were employed to compare infection prevalence and intensity across the different arms.

RESULTS

The prevalence of schistosome parasite infection ranged from 0% to 2.6% and from 1.7% to 25.7% across districts, employing the Kato-Katz (KK) and point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) diagnostics, respectively. The mean infection intensity level showed no marked difference between baseline and follow-up surveys when measured by KK, except in Arm 2 (t = 6.89, P < 0.0001). Infection prevalence decreased significantly in Arm 1 (t = 8.62, P < 0.0001), Arm 2 (t = 6.94, P < 0.0001), and Arm 3 (t = 8.83, P < 0.0001), but not in Arm 1 pilot (t = 1.69, P = 0.09) by POC-CCA, when trace was considered positive. The decrease was significant only in Arm 1 (t = 3.28, P = 0.0001) and Arm 2 (t = 7.62, P < 0.0001) when the trace was considered negative in POC-CCA. Arm 2 demonstrated a significant difference in difference (DID) compared to the control group, Arm 3, regardless of whether trace in POC-CCA was considered positive (DID = 3.9%, df = 8780, P = 0.025) or negative (DID = -5.2, df = 8780, P = 0.0004).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of schistosomiasis was low when employing the KK diagnostic but moderate in some locations by the POC-CCA diagnostic. The infection level had decreased across all arms of the Geshiyaro study at mid-term of the 7-year project, but further efforts are needed to reduce the rate of parasite transmission based on the POC-CCA diagnostic scores.

"Our interventions are still here to support communities during the pandemic": Resuming mass drug administration for neglected tropical diseases after COVID-19 implementation delays

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted essential health services, including those provided by national neglected tropical disease (NTD) programs. Most mass drug administration (MDA) programs were postponed for 6-12 months following World Health Organization guidance released in April 2020 to temporarily halt NTD programs and launch necessary COVID-19 precautions. While NTD-endemic countries have since resumed MDA activities, it is critical to understand implementers' perspectives on the key challenges and opportunities for program relaunch, as these insights are critical for maximizing gains towards disease control and elimination during public health emergencies. Using data from using online surveys and focus group discussions, this mixed-methods study sought perspectives from Ministry of Health NTD Program Managers and implementing partners from non-governmental organizations working in sub-Saharan Africa. Data analysis revealed that findings converged around several main themes: disruptions for MDA programs included resource shortages due to prioritization of pandemic response, challenges adhering to COVID-19 safety protocols, and community hesitancy due to coronavirus transmission fears. Identified solutions for restarting MDA programs focused on adapting intervention delivery and packaging to minimize disease transmission, embracing technology to optimize intervention planning and delivery, and identifying opportunities to promote program integration between pandemic response strategies and NTD campaign delivery. Findings identifies key challenges due to disruptions to NTD program delivery and provide strategic recommendations for endemic countries to build resilient programs that can continue to perform during and beyond global pandemics.

Concordance between Ov16 Rapid Diagnostic Test(RDT) and Ov16 Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) for the Diagnosis of Onchocerciasis in Areas of Contrasting Endemicity in Cameroon

The diagnosis of onchocerciasis in endemic areas has been demanding given the need to replace the invasive skin snip method with a more sensitive and specific rapid point-of-contact tool. Filarial antigen detection tests are better alternative methods in diagnosing Onchocercal infections, as they detect infections and could be used to monitor transmission in endemic areas following mass drug administration. With the shift in paradigme from control to elimination, a rapid point- of-contact tool is required to support elimination programs. This was a cross-sectional, community-based study conducted in 50 villages selected from six health districts using a systematic sampling technique. Individuals ≥17 years who had lived in the community for a duration of 5 years and above provided blood specimens for IgG4 antibodies testing against O. volvulus antigens. Data were analyzed using SPSS v.20 and expectation maximization to classify optical densities for positive and negative samples from ELISA results. The kappa statistics was used to measure the level of agreement between the two tests. In a total of 5001 participants which were recruited for the study, 4416 (88.3 %) participant samples passed the plate quality control criteria and were considered for the test comparison analysis. Out of the 4416 participants, 292 (6.6 %) tested positive with Ov16 RDT and 310 (7.0 %) with Ov16 ELISA. All those who tested positive with the rapid test agreed positive with ELISA. The overall percentage agreement was 99.2 %, the Kappa score of 0.936. The results obtained indicate an excellent agreement between ELISA and RDT as measured by kappa (0.936) which was statistically significant (P<0.001). Our experience with the Ov16 ELISA biplex rapid test was favorable. However, the Ov16 RDT test may be more appropriate to use in remote areas for the point diagnosis of onchocerciasis in view towards achieving elimination in Africa.

Geostatistical modelling of the distribution, risk and burden of podoconiosis in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Understanding and accurately predicting the environmental limits, population at risk and burden of podoconiosis are critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services, planning control and elimination programs and implementing tailored case finding and surveillance activities.

METHODS

This is secondary analysis of a nationwide podoconiosis mapping survey in Kenya. We combined national representative prevalence survey data of podoconiosis with climate and environmental data, overlayed with population figures in a geostatistical modelling framework, to predict the environmental suitability, population living in at-risk areas and number of cases of podoconiosis in Kenya.

RESULTS

In 2020, the number of people living with podoconiosis in Kenya was estimated to be 9344 (95% uncertainty interval 4222 to 17 962). The distribution of podoconiosis varies by geography and three regions (Eastern, Nyanza and Western) represent >90% of the absolute number of cases. High environmental suitability for podoconiosis was predicted in four regions of Kenya (Coastal, Eastern, Nyanza and Western). In total, 2.2 million people live in at-risk areas and 4.2% of the total landmass of Kenya is environmentally predisposed for podoconiosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of podoconiosis is relatively low in Kenya and is mostly restricted to certain small geographical areas. Our results will help guide targeted prevention and treatment approaches through local planning, spatial targeting and tailored surveillance activities.

Application of loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assays for the detection of Onchocerca volvulus, Loa loa and Mansonella perstans in humans and vectors

Conventional diagnosis of filarial infections is based on morphological identification of microfilariae using light microscopy and requires considerable expertise, is time-consuming, and can be subjective. Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) has advantages over microscopy or PCR because of its operational simplicity, rapidity and versatility of readout options. LAMP assays represent a major step forward in improved filarial diagnostic tools suitable for low resource settings and field applicability. The study goal was to retrospectively evaluate the performance and suitability of the O-150, RF4, and Mp419 LAMP assays for diagnosing Onchocerca volvulus, Loa loa and Mansonella perstans infections, respectively, in humans and vectors under experimental and natural field conditions. Surveys were conducted in four health districts of Cameroon using skin snip and thick blood film methods to detect skin (O. volvulus) and blood (L. loa and M. perstans) dwelling microfilaria in humans. Engorged vectors (Simulium spp., Chrysops spp., and Culicoides spp.) were evaluated by LAMP. Dissected, wild-caught vectors were also analyzed. LAMP showed a prevalence of 40.4% (O. volvulus), 17.8% (L. loa) and 36.6% (M. perstans) versus 20.6% (O. volvulus), 17.4% (L. loa) and 33.8% (M. perstans) with microscopy. Simulium spp. were dissected for microscopy and pooled for LAMP. The O-150 LAMP assay infection rate was 4.3% versus 4.1% by microscopy. Chrysops spp. were dissected and analyzed individually in the LAMP assay. The RF4 LAMP assay infection rate was 23.5% versus 3.3% with microscopy. The RF4 LAMP assay also detected parasites in Chrysops spp. fed on low microfilaremic volunteers. The Mp419 LAMP assay infection rate was 0.2% for C. milnei and 0.04% for C. grahamii, while three other species were LAMP-negative. The sensitivity, species specificity, rapidity and ease of its use of these filarial LAMP assays, and validation of their performance in the field support use as alternatives to microscopy as diagnostic and surveillance tools in global health programs aimed to eliminate onchocerciasis.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Estimating the burden of mycetoma in Sudan for the period 1991-2018 using a model-based geostatistical approach

Mycetoma is widespread in tropical and subtropical regions favouring arid areas with low humidity and a short rainy season. Sudan is one of the highly endemic countries for mycetoma. Estimating the population at risk and the number of cases is critical for delivering targeted and equitable prevention and treatment services. In this study, we have combined a large dataset of mycetoma cases recorded by the Mycetoma Research Centre (MRC) in Sudan over 28 years (1991-2018) with a collection of environmental and water and hygiene-related datasets in a geostatistical framework to produce estimates of the disease burden across the country. We developed geostatistical models to predict the number of cases of actinomycetoma and eumycetoma in areas considered environmentally suitable for the two mycetoma forms. Then used the raster dataset (gridded map) with the population estimates for 2020 to compute the potentially affected population since 1991. The geostatistical models confirmed this heterogeneous and distinct distribution of the estimated cases of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma across Sudan. For eumycetoma, these higher-risk areas were smaller and scattered across Al Jazirah, Khartoum, White Nile and Sennar states, while for actinomycetoma a higher risk for infection is shown across the rural districts of North and West Kurdufan. Nationally, we estimated 63,825 people (95%CI: 13,693 to 197,369) to have been suffering from mycetoma since 1991 in Sudan,51,541 people (95%CI: 9,893-166,073) with eumycetoma and 12,284 people (95%CI: 3,800-31,296) with actinomycetoma. In conclusion, the risk of mycetoma in Sudan is particularly high in certain restricted areas, but cases are ubiquitous across all states. Both prevention and treatment services are required to address the burden. Such work provides a guide for future control and prevention programs for mycetoma, highly endemic areas are clearly targeted, and resources are directed to areas with high demand.

Role of socioeconomic factors in developing mycetoma: Results from a household survey in Sennar State, Sudan

BACKGROUND

Mycetoma is a chronic, progressively destructive disease of subcutaneous tissues and bones caused by certain species of bacteria or fungi. We conducted a cross-sectional community-based study alongside mapping of mycetoma in five administrative units with high mycetoma endemicity in the Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan.

METHODS

A household survey was administered which included questions about the household members, household characteristics, economic activity and history of mycetoma. A clinical examination was conducted on all members of the household. If mycetoma was suspected, an individual questionnaire was completed collecting demographic, clinical and epidemiological data as well as information on the use of health care and associated costs. Geographical coordinates and photos of the lesions were taken, and the affected persons were referred to the medical centre for confirmation of the diagnosis and treatment. We compared the characteristics of households with confirmed cases of mycetoma with those without confirmed cases, and individuals with confirmed mycetoma with those in whom mycetoma was not confirmed.

RESULTS

In total 7,798 households in 60 villages were surveyed; 515 suspected cases were identified and 359 cases of mycetoma were confirmed. Approximately 15% of households with mycetoma had more than one household member affected by this disease. Households with mycetoma were worse off with respect to water supply, toilet facilities, electricity and electrical appliances compared to the survey households. Only 23% of study participants with mycetoma had sought professional help. Of these, 77% of patients travelled an average of six hours to visit a medical facility. More than half of patients had to pay towards their treatment. The estimated average cost of treatment was 26,957 Sudanese pounds per year (566 US dollars, exchange rate 2018).

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this survey suggest that agricultural practices and reduced access to sanitation and clean water can be risk factors in developing mycetoma. Poor access to health care and substantial financial costs were barriers to seeking treatment for mycetoma.

Individual Risk Factors of Mycetoma Occurrence in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan: A Case-Control Study

Mycetoma is a serious chronic subcutaneous granulomatous inflammatory disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, where it impacts profoundly on patients, families, and communities. Individual-level risk factors for the disease are poorly understood. To address this, a case-control study was conducted based on data collected from 60 villages in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan. Based on the presence of swelling in any part of the body, or sinus formation with or without grain discharge evident from the lesion by ultrasound examination, we diagnosed 359 cases of mycetoma. For each case, we included three healthy sex-matched persons, with no evidence of mycetoma, from the same village as the control group (n = 1077). The odds for mycetoma were almost three times higher in individuals in the age group 16–30 years (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.804, 95% CI = 1.424–5.523) compared to those in age group ≤ 15 years. Other factors contributing to the odds of mycetoma were history of local trauma (AOR = 1.892, 95% CI = 1.425–2.513), being unmarried (AOR = 3.179, 95% CI = 2.339–4.20) and owning livestock (AOR = 3.941, 95% CI = 2.874–5.405). In conclusion, certain factors found to be associated with mycetoma in this study could inform a high index of suspicion for mycetoma diagnosis, which would improve early case detection. Other factors found to be associated could inform the development of an interventional program for mycetoma control in Sudan, including education on healthy farming practices and the risks of puncture wounds for individuals residing in endemic areas. However, this work was conducted in one endemic state, while mycetoma cases occur in all states of Sudan. Replicating this study over a wider area would give a fuller picture of the situation, providing the control program with more comprehensive information on the risk factors for the disease.

Progress in health among regions of Ethiopia, 1990-2019: a subnational country analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities.

METHODS

We gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment.

FINDINGS

The SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59-7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01-4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96-6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26-1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79-22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71-48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51-70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91-72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53-66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69-1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities.

INTERPRETATION

There were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Clinical epidemiological characteristics of mycetoma in Eastern Sennar locality, Sennar State, Sudan

Mycetoma epidemiological features remain uncharacterised. Few studies have been conducted in a community-based setting to explore the epidemiological features and risk factors for mycetoma in Sudan. To bridge this gap, this study was conducted in Eastern Sennar Locality, Sennar State, Sudan, to report the clinical, epidemiological characteristics of mycetoma patients and the disease burden in the state. We used cluster sampling; sixty villages were randomly selected across the locality's five administrative units, and a household-to-household survey was conducted. We collected data using pre-designed questionnaires at the community, household, and individual levels. We performed descriptive analyses of the data and produced prevalence maps using ArcGIS 10.5 ([ESRI] Inc., Redlands CA, USA). A total of 41,176 individuals were surveyed, and 359 mycetoma patients were identified. The overall prevalence of mycetoma was 0.87% (95%CI = 0.78-0.97%), the prevalence among males was 0.83% (95%CI = 0.71-0.96%), and females 0.92% (95% CI = 0.79-1.06%). Individuals in the age group 31-45 years had the highest prevalence among the different age groups (1.52%, 95% CI = 1.23-1.86%). The prevalence map showed patients clustered within the central and north-eastern part of the locality, while villages in the south-western part had few or no cases. In conclusion, this clinical epidemiological study is pioneering and shows that mycetoma is prevalent in certain parts of Sudan. This data obtained will support the design of measures to reduce the disease burden in the state. The survey procedures and protocols can be adopted for further studies in Sudan and beyond.

How can we better integrate the prevention, treatment, control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases with other health interventions? A systematic review

Background

Globally, about 1.7 billion people living in poverty are affected by one or more of a group of disabling, disfiguring and poverty-promoting conditions known as neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Major global health actors, like the WHO, have endorsed a shift from vertical to integrated NTD management.

Objective

This systematic review aimed to evaluate how integration is being conducted and how we can improve it.

Methods

PubMed, Medline, Cochrane library, Web of Science, Trip, Embase, Global Health and Google Scholar were searched from 1 April to 22 July 2020. We included peer-reviewed articles published between 1 January 2000 and 22 July 2020 in English.

Results

Database searches produced 24 565 studies, of which 35 articles met the inclusion criteria. Twenty of these articles were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Twenty articles were also published between 2015 and 2020. Literature revealed that NTDs have been integrated—among themselves; with water, sanitation and hygiene programmes; with vector control; with primary healthcare; with immunisation programmes; and with malaria management. Integrated mass drug administration for multiple NTDs was the most common method of integration. The three complex, yet common characteristics of successful integration were good governance, adequate financing and total community engagement.

Conclusion

The dataset identified integrated management of NTDs to be cost effective and potentially to increase treatment coverage. However, the identified modes of integration are not exclusive and are limited by the available literature. Nonetheless, integration should urgently be implemented, while considering the programmatic and sociopolitical context.

PROSPERO registration number

The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO number, CRD42020167358.

Modelling the spatial distribution of mycetoma in Sudan

BACKGROUND

Mycetoma is a neglected tropical disease that is reported worldwide and Sudan has the highest reported number of mycetoma infections across the globe. The incidence, prevalence and burden of mycetoma globally are not precisely known and its risk factors remain largely unelucidated.

METHODS

This study aimed to identify the environmental predictors of fungal and bacterial mycetoma in Sudan and to identify areas of the country where these niche predictors are met. Demographic and clinical data from confirmed mycetoma patients seen at the Mycetoma Research Centre from 1991 to 2018 were included in this study. Regression and machine learning techniques were used to model the relationships between mycetoma occurrence in Sudan and environmental predictors.

RESULTS

The strongest predictors of mycetoma occurrence were aridity, proximity to water, low soil calcium and sodium concentrations and the distribution of various species of thorny trees. The models predicted the occurrence of eumycetoma and actinomycetoma in the central and southeastern states of Sudan and along the Nile river valley and its tributaries.

CONCLUSION

Our results showed that the risk of mycetoma in Sudan varies geographically and is linked to identifiable environmental risk factors. Suitability maps are intended to guide health authorities, academic institutes and organisations involved in planning national scale surveys for early case detection and management, leading to better patient treatment, prevention and control of mycetoma.

Mapping of Podoconiosis Cases and Risk Factors in Kenya: A Nationwide Cross-sectional Study

Podoconiosis is a type of tropical lymphedema that is clinically distinguished from lymphatic filariasis (LF) because it is ascending and commonly bilateral but asymmetric. The disease is a result of a genetically determined inflammatory reaction to long-term exposure to mineral particles in irritant red clay soils derived mainly from volcanic soils. We conducted the first nationwide mapping of the prevalence and risk factors of podoconiosis in Kenya. We performed a population-based cross-sectional survey to determine the national prevalence of podoconiosis and included 6,228 individuals from 48 villages in 24 sub-counties across 15 counties. Participants answered a questionnaire about the history of symptoms compatible with podoconiosis, received a point-of-care antigen test, and underwent a physical examination if they had lymphedema. A confirmed case of podoconiosis was defined as a case in a resident of the study village who had lower limb bilateral and asymmetric lymphedema lasting more than 1 year, negative test results for Wuchereria bancrofti antigen, and other causes of lymphedema ruled out. Of all the individuals surveyed, 89 had lymphedema; of those, 16 of 6228 (0.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1-0.5) were confirmed to have podoconiosis. A high prevalence of podoconiosis was found in western (Siaya, 3.1%; Busia, 0.9%) and central (Meru, 1.1%) regions, and a low prevalence was observed in northern (Marsabit, 0.2%), eastern (Makueni, 0.2%), and coastal (Tana River, 0.1%) regions. The identified risk factors were age 56 years or older (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.66; 95% CI, 2.32-13.83; P < 0.001) and rarely wearing shoes (aOR, 18.92; 95% CI, 4.55-78.71; P < 0.001). These results indicated that the podoconiosis prevalence is low and localized in Kenya; therefore, elimination is achievable if appropriate disease prevention, management, and behavioral strategies are promoted.

Podoconiosis - From known to unknown: Obstacles to tackle

Podoconiosis is a non-filarial and non-communicable disease leading to lymphedema of the lower limbs. Worldwide, 4 million individuals live with podoconiosis, which is accompanied by disability and painful intermittent acute inflammatory episodes that attribute to significant disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Different risk factors like contact with volcanic red clay soil, high altitude (above 1000 m), high seasonal rainfall (above 1000 mm/year) and occupation (e.g., subsistence farmer) are associated with the risk of podoconiosis. Although podoconiosis was described to be endemic in 32 countries in Africa, parts of Latin America and South East Asia, knowledge about related genetics, pathophysiology, immunology and especially the causing molecule(s) in the soil remain uncertain. Thus, podoconiosis can be considered as one of the most neglected diseases. This review provides an overview about this non-filarial related geochemical disease and aim to present perspectives and future directions that might be important for better understanding of the disease, prospect for point-of-care diagnosis, achieving protection and developing novel treatment strategies.

Podoconiosis: key priorities for research and implementation

Podoconiosis is a non-infectious tropical lymphoedema causing swelling of the lower legs. Podoconiosis is associated with stigma, depression and reduced productivity, resulting in significant socio-economic impacts for affected individuals, families and communities. It is caused by barefoot exposure to soils and affects disadvantaged populations. Evidence from the past 5 y suggests that podoconiosis is amenable to public health interventions, e.g. footwear and hygiene-based morbidity management, which reduce acute clinical episodes. Although much has been learned in recent years, advances in care for these patients and worldwide control requires further reliable and relevant research. To develop a comprehensive global control strategy, the following key research priorities are important: better understanding of the global burden of podoconiosis through extended worldwide mapping, development of new point-of-care diagnostic methods and approaches to define the presence of the environmental characteristics that contribute to the development of the condition, improving treatment through an increased understanding of the pathogenesis of dermal changes over time, improved understanding of optimal ways of providing patient care at the national level, including research to optimize behavioural change strategies, determine the optimum package of care and integrate approaches to deliver robust surveillance, monitoring and evaluation of control programmes.

Developing and validating a clinical algorithm for the diagnosis of podoconiosis

BACKGROUND

Difficulties in reliably diagnosing podoconiosis have severely limited the scale-up and uptake of the World Health Organization-recommended morbidity management and disability prevention interventions for affected people. We aimed to identify a set of clinical features that, combined into an algorithm, allow for diagnosis of podoconiosis.

METHODS

We identified 372 people with lymphoedema and administered a structured questionnaire on signs and symptoms associated with podoconiosis and other potential causes of lymphoedema in northern Ethiopia. All individuals were tested for Wuchereria bancrofti-specific immunoglobulin G4 in the field using Wb123.

RESULTS

Based on expert diagnosis, 344 (92.5%) of the 372 participants had podoconiosis. The rest had lymphoedema due to other aetiologies. The best-performing set of symptoms and signs was the presence of moss on the lower legs and a family history of leg swelling, plus the absence of current or previous leprosy, plus the absence of swelling in the groin, plus the absence of chronic illness (such as diabetes mellitus or heart or kidney diseases). The overall sensitivity of the algorithm was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 87.6 to 94.4) and specificity was 95% (95% CI 85.45 to 100).

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a clinical algorithm of clinical history and physical examination that could be used in areas suspected or endemic for podoconiosis. Use of this algorithm should enable earlier identification of podoconiosis cases and scale-up of interventions.

Clinical, haematological and biochemical profiling of podoconiosis lymphoedema patients prior to their involvement in a clinical trial in the Northwest Region of Cameroon

BACKGROUND

Prior to carrying out clinical trials, it is important to assess the health status of the study participants to be able to interpret subsequent changes that may be related to the effects of the treatments during the follow-up of patients. This study presents the clinical, haematological and biochemical profiles of podoconiosis patients prior to their involvement in the PodoLEDoxy clinical trial.

METHODS

All lower limb lymphoedema patients visiting the centre were screened and a podoconiosis diagnosis was based on clinical manifestation and detailed medical history. Patients who satisfied the eligibility criteria were enrolled in the study and their demographic data, vital signs and medical history were collected followed by biochemical and haematological examinations.

RESULTS

Of the 222 participants enrolled in the study, 55.4% and 41.4% had either stage 3 or 2 podoconiosis as their highest stages, respectively. On physical examination, gastritis (46%) and poor vision (2.7%) were the most prevalent health issues identified. The majority of haematological and biochemical values were within the normal range except for mean platelet volume (47.7%), plateletcrit (58.1%), platelet distribution width (66.2%), mean corpuscular volume (67.6%) and red cell distribution width-standard deviation (79.3%), where >40% of the study participants had values out of the normal.

CONCLUSION

The clinical, haematological and biochemical profiles of the study participants were largely within the normal range except for certain haematological parameters that might be worth investigating.

The health and economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia

Background

Podoconiosis is one of the leading causes of lymphoedema-related morbidity in low-income settings, but little is known about the scale of its health and economic impact. This information is required to inform control programme planning and policy. In this study, we estimated the health and economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia.

Methods

We developed a model to estimate the health burden attributed to podoconiosis in terms of the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and the economic burden. We estimated the economic burden by quantifying the treatment and morbidity-management costs incurred by the healthcare system in managing clinical cases, patients' out-of-pocket costs and their productivity costs.

Results

In 2017, there were 1.5 million cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia, which corresponds to 172 073 DALYs or 182 per 100 000 people. The total economic burden of podoconiosis in Ethiopia is estimated to be US$213.2 million annually and 91.1% of this resulted from productivity costs. The average economic burden per podoconiosis case was US$136.9.

Conclusions

The national cost of podoconiosis is formidable. If control measures are scaled up and the morbidity burden reduced, this will lead to Ethiopia saving millions of dollars. Our estimates provide important benchmark economic costs to programme planners, policymakers and donors for resource allocation and priority setting.

Amin HI, Madi D, Mahasha PW, Majeed A, Maleki A, Maleki S, Mamun AA, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masoumi SZ, Mayala BK, Meharie BG, Meheretu HAA, Meles HG, Melku M, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Meretoja TJ, Mersha AM, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mirica A, Mirzaei-Alavijeh M, Mohamad O, Mohammad Y, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed JA, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokonnon TM, Molokhia M, Moradi M, Moradi Y, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Munro SB, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naghavi M, Naveed M, Nayak VC, Nazari J, Ndejjo R, Nepal S, Netsere HB, Ngalesoni FN, Nguefack-Tsague G, Ngunjiri JW, Nigatu YT, Nigussie SN, Nnaji CA, Noubiap JJ, Nuñez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Odukoya OO, Ogbo FA, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Omer MO, Omonisi AEE, Onwujekwe OE, Orisakwe OE, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, P A M, Padubidri JR, Pakhale S, Pana A, Pandi-Perumal SR, Patel UK, Pathak M, Patton GC, Pawar S, Peprah EK, Pokhrel KN, Postma MJ, Pottoo FH, Pourjafar H, Pribadi DRA, Quazi Syed Z, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rahmani AM, Ram P, Rana J, Ranabhat CL, Rao S, Rao SJ, Rathi P, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Rawassizadeh R, Renjith V, Reta MA, Rezaei N, Rezapour A, Ribeiro AI, Ross JM, Rumisha SF, Sagar R, Sahu M, Sajadi SM, Salem MR, Samy AM, Sathian B, Schutte AE, Seidu AA, Sha F, Shafaat O, Shahbaz M, Shaikh MA, Shaka MF, Sheikh A, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Shivakumar KM, Sidemo NB, Singh JA, Skryabin VY, Skryabina AA, Soheili A, Soltani S, Somefun OD, Sorrie MB, Spurlock EE, Sufiyan MB, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tamir Z, Tamiru AT, Tanser FC, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalegn Y, Tesfay FH, Tessema B, Tessema ZT, Thakur B, Tolani MA, Topor-Madry R, Torrado M, Tovani-Palone MR, Traini E, Tsai AC, Tsegaye GW, Ullah I, Ullah S, Umeokonkwo CD, Unnikrishnan B, Vardavas C, Violante FS, Vo B, Wado YD, Waheed Y, Wamai RG, Wang Y, Ward P, Werdecker A, Wickramasinghe ND, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wondmeneh TG, Yamada T, Yaya S, Yeshaw Y, Yeshitila YG, Yilma MT, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yosef T, Yusefzadeh H, Zaidi SS, Zaki L, Zamanian M, Zastrozhin MS, Zastrozhina A, Zewdie DT, Zhang Y, Zhang ZJ, Ziapour A, Hay SI, Dwyer-Lindgren L. Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.

FINDINGS

The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020.

INTERPRETATION

Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Baseline Mapping of Neglected Tropical Diseases in Africa: The Accelerated WHO/AFRO Mapping Project

Mapping is a prerequisite for effective implementation of interventions against neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Before the accelerated World Health Organization (WHO)/Regional Office for Africa (AFRO) NTD Mapping Project was initiated in 2014, mapping efforts in many countries were frequently carried out in an ad hoc and nonstandardized fashion. In 2013, there were at least 2,200 different districts (of the 4,851 districts in the WHO African region) that still required mapping, and in many of these districts, more than one disease needed to be mapped. During its 3-year duration from January 2014 through the end of 2016, the project carried out mapping surveys for one or more NTDs in at least 2,500 districts in 37 African countries. At the end of 2016, most (90%) of the 4,851 districts had completed the WHO-required mapping surveys for the five targeted Preventive Chemotherapy (PC)-NTDs, and the impact of this accelerated WHO/AFRO NTD Mapping Project proved to be much greater than just the detailed mapping results themselves. Indeed, the AFRO Mapping Project dramatically energized and empowered national NTD programs, attracted donor support for expanding these programs, and developed both a robust NTD mapping database and data portal. By clarifying the prevalence and burden of NTDs, the project provided not only the metrics and technical framework for guiding and tracking program implementation and success but also the research opportunities for developing improved diagnostic and epidemiologic sampling tools for all 5 PC-NTDs—lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis, and trachoma.