Circulating proteins to predict COVID-19 severity

Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measured 4701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict COVID-19 severity in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different COVID-19 severity were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of COVID-19 severity. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.

Proteome-wide Mendelian randomization implicates nephronectin as an actionable mediator of the effect of obesity on COVID-19 severity

Obesity is a major risk factor for Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) severity; however, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are not fully understood. As obesity influences the plasma proteome, we sought to identify circulating proteins mediating the effects of obesity on COVID-19 severity in humans. Here, we screened 4,907 plasma proteins to identify proteins influenced by body mass index using Mendelian randomization. This yielded 1,216 proteins, whose effect on COVID-19 severity was assessed, again using Mendelian randomization. We found that an s.d. increase in nephronectin (NPNT) was associated with increased odds of critically ill COVID-19 (OR = 1.71, P = 1.63 × 10^-10). The effect was driven by an NPNT splice isoform. Mediation analyses supported NPNT as a mediator. In single-cell RNA-sequencing, NPNT was expressed in alveolar cells and fibroblasts of the lung in individuals who died of COVID-19. Finally, decreasing body fat mass and increasing fat-free mass were found to lower NPNT levels. These findings provide actionable insights into how obesity influences COVID-19 severity.

The dynamic changes and sex differences of 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 in 580 individuals

INTRODUCTION

Severe COVID-19 leads to important changes in circulating immune-related proteins. To date it has been difficult to understand their temporal relationship and identify cytokines that are drivers of severe COVID-19 outcomes and underlie differences in outcomes between sexes. Here, we measured 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 to investigate these questions.

METHODS

We measured circulating protein abundances using the SOMAscan nucleic acid aptamer panel in two large independent hospital-based COVID-19 cohorts in Canada and the United States. We fit generalized additive models with cubic splines from the start of symptom onset to identify protein levels over the first 14 days of infection which were different between severe cases and controls, adjusting for age and sex. Severe cases were defined as individuals with COVID-19 requiring invasive or non-invasive mechanical respiratory support.

RESULTS

580 individuals were included in the analysis. Mean subject age was 64.3 (sd 18.1), and 47% were male. Of the 147 proteins, 69 showed a significant difference between cases and controls (p < 3.4 × 10-4). Three clusters were formed by 108 highly correlated proteins that replicated in both cohorts, making it difficult to determine which proteins have a true causal effect on severe COVID-19. Six proteins showed sex differences in levels over time, of which 3 were also associated with severe COVID-19: CCL26, IL1RL2, and IL3RA, providing insights to better understand the marked differences in outcomes by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe COVID-19 is associated with large changes in 69 immune-related proteins. Further, five proteins were associated with sex differences in outcomes. These results provide direct insights into immune-related proteins that are strongly influenced by severe COVID-19 infection.

"Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations" and Incident Hospital Admissions in Older People with Major Neurocognitive Disorders Visiting Emergency Department: Results of an Experimental Study

INTRODUCTION

Older people with major neurocognitive disorders (MNCDs) visiting the emergency department (ED) are at high risk of hospital admissions. The "Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations" (ER2) tool decreases the length of stay (LOS) in the hospital when older people visiting ED are hospitalized after an index ED visit, regardless of their cognitive status. Its effect on hospital admissions has not yet been examined in older people with MNCD visiting ED. This study aimed to examine whether ER2 recommendations were associated with incident hospital admissions and LOS in ED in older people with MNCD visiting ED.

METHODS

A total of 356 older people with MNCD visiting ED of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) were recruited in this non-randomized, pre-post-intervention, single arm, prospective and longitudinal open label trial. ED staff and patients were blinded of the ER2 score, and patients received usual ED care during the observation period, whereas ED staff were informed about the ER2 score, and patients had ER2 tailor-made recommendations in addition to usual care during the intervention period. Hospital admissions and the LOS in ED were the outcomes.

RESULTS

There were less incident hospital admissions (odds ratio ≤ 0.61 with p ≤ 0.022) and longer LOS in ED (coefficient beta ≥4.28 with p ≤ 0.008) during the intervention period compared to the observation period.

DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION

ER2 recommendations have mixed effects in people with MNCD visiting ED. They were associated with reduced incident hospital admissions and increased LOS in ED, suggesting that they may have benefits in addition to usual ED care.

Association between access to primary care and unplanned emergency department return visits among patients 75 years and older

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors associated with unplanned return visits to the emergency department (ED) among the population aged 75 years and older. Moreover, it aims to determine the association between patients' access to primary care and unplanned return visits.

DESIGN

Data were collected from structured interviews, administrative databases, and medical charts at the index visits, and follow-up telephone calls were made at 3 months.

SETTING

Emergency departments of the 3 tertiary care hospitals in Montréal, Que.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling patients aged 75 years and older.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis was conducted of unplanned return visits within 3 months. Rate ratios (RRs) and odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs are presented.

RESULTS

During the study period, 4577 patients were identified, 2303 were recruited, and 1998 were retained for the analysis. Among the analysis sample, 33% were 85 and older, 34% lived alone, and 91% had a family physician. Before their ED visits, 16% of patients attempted to contact their family physicians. More than half of the patients reported having difficulty seeing their physicians for urgent problems, more than 40% had difficulty speaking with their family physicians by telephone, and more than one-third had difficulty booking appointments for new health problems. Within 3 months, 562 patients (28%) had made 894 return visits. Factors associated with a lower return visit rate included age 85 years and older (RR=0.80; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.96), less severe triage score (RR=0.83; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.92), and hospitalization at the index visit (RR=0.76; 95% CI 0.64 to 0.90). Factors that resulted in a higher return visit rate were difficulty booking appointments for new problems with their family physicians (RR=1.19; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.41), having had ED visits within the previous 6 months (RR=1.47; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.68), and higher Charlson comorbidity index scores (RR=1.06; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.11). Having had ED visits within the previous 6 months (OR=2.11; 95% CI 1.27 to 3.49), having a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (OR=1.41; 95% CI 1.19 to 1.68), and having received community care services (OR=3.00; 95% CI 0.95 to 9.53) also increased the odds of return visits.

CONCLUSION

Although most people 75 years and older have a family physician, problems still exist in terms of timely access. Unplanned return visits to the ED are associated with having more comorbidities, having had previous ED visits, having already received community services, and having difficulty booking appointments with family physicians for new problems.

Muscle Area and Density Assessed by Abdominal Computed Tomography in Healthy Adults: Effect of Normal Aging and Derivation of Reference Values

BACKGROUND

A growing body of evidence has demonstrated the prognostic value of skeletal muscle area and quality measured by computed tomography (CT) as biomarkers of sarcopenia and frailty. However, there exists little data in normal healthy subjects to inform reference values and determine the effects of advancing age and sex on CT muscle parameters.

METHODS

Abdominal CT images of patients (20-80 years of age) presenting to the emergency department with benign abdominal symptoms and no significant medical comorbidities were retrospectively collected from 2014 to 2017. Psoas and abdominal wall muscle area (PMA, WMA) and density (PMD, WMD) at the level of the L4 vertebrae were measured with the CoreSlicer.com web app. The normal reference range was computed by non-parameteric 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles stratified by sex and restricted by age to the younger subgroup (20-39 years of age).

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 390 otherwise healthy patients (162 males, 228 females). The lower reference range for PMA was <22.0 cm2 in males and <11.1 cm2 in females, and for WMA was <112.2 cm2 in males and <75.6 cm2 in females. There was a graded decline observed in PMA and WMA among older compared to younger adults (especially ≥60 years of age) (P<0.001) and among females compared to males (P<0.001). There was also a graded decline observed in PMD and WMD among older compared to younger adults (P<0.001), irrespective of sex.

CONCLUSION

This study has defined the normal reference values and age-associated down-trend for CT muscle parameters at L4 in a healthy population using an accessible web-based software, which help contextualize and interpret these imaging biomarkers of sarcopenia in clinical care.

"Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendations" (ER2) Tool for the Screening of Older Emergency Department Visitors With Major Neurocognitive Disorders: Results From the ER2 Database

Purpose: The Emergency Room Evaluation and Recommendation (ER²) is an application in the electronic medical file of patients visiting the Emergency Department (ED) of the Jewish General Hospital (JGH; Montreal, Quebec, Canada). It screens for older ED visitors at high risk of undesirable events. The aim of this study is to examine the performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], negative predictive value [NPV], positive likelihood ratio [LR+], negative likelihood ratio [LR-] and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) of the ER² high-risk level and its "temporal disorientation" item alone to screen for major neurocognitive disorders in older ED visitors at the JGH. Methods: Based on a cross-sectional design, 999 older adults (age 84.9 ± 5.6, 65.1% female) visiting the ED of the JGH were selected from the ER² database. ER² was completed upon the patients' arrival at the ED. The outcomes were ER²'s high-risk level, the answer to ER²'s temporal disorientation item (present vs. absent), and the diagnosis of major neurocognitive disorders (yes vs. no) which was confirmed when it was present in a letter or other files signed by a physician. Results: The sensitivities of both ER²'s high-risk level and temporal disorientation item were high (≥0.91). Specificity, the PPV, LR+, and AROC were higher for the temporal disorientation item compared to ER²'s high-risk level, whereas a highest sensitivity, LR-, and NPV were obtained with the ER² high-risk level. Both area under the receiver operating characteristic curves were high (0.71 for ER²'s high-risk level and 0.82 for ER² temporal disorientation item). The odds ratios (OR) of ER²'s high-risk level and of temporal disorientation item for the diagnosis of major neurocognitive disorders were positive and significant with all OR above 18, the highest OR being reported for the temporal disorientation item in the unadjusted model [OR = 26.4 with 95% confidence interval (CI) = 17.7-39.3]. Conclusion: Our results suggest that ER² and especially its temporal disorientation item may be used to screen for major neurocognitive disorders in older ED users.

Racial Disparities in Acute Coronary Syndrome Management Within a Universal Healthcare Context: Insights From the AMI-OPTIMA Trial

Background

Although prior studies have demonstrated racial disparities regarding acute coronary syndrome (ACS) care within private or mixed healthcare systems, few researchers have explored such disparities within universal healthcare systems. We aimed to evaluate the quality and outcomes of in-hospital ACS management for White patients vs patients of colour, within a universal healthcare context.

Methods

We performed a post hoc analysis of the Acute Myocardial Infarction - Knowledge Translation to Optimize Adherence to Evidence-Based Therapy study, a cluster-randomized trial evaluating a knowledge-translation intervention at 24 hospitals in Quebec, Canada (years: 2009 and 2012). The primary endpoint was coronary catheterization. The secondary endpoints included in-hospital mortality, percutaneous and surgical coronary revascularization, major bleeding, total stroke, and discharge prescription of evidence-based medical therapy.

Results

Of 3444 included patients, 2738 were White, and 706 were people of colour. The mean age was 68.2 years (33.3% women) among White patients and 69.5 years (36.0% women) among patients of colour. Patients of colour were less likely to undergo in-hospital coronary catheterization than were White patients (74.5% vs 80.3%, P = 0.001). This difference was attenuated after adjusting for patient-level characteristics (odds ratio 0.89; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.09), and it was eliminated after adjusting for hospital-level characteristics (odds ratio 1.04; 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.49).

Conclusions

Racial disparity in coronary catheterization for ACS persists within a universal healthcare context. Patients’ comorbidities and hospital-level factors may be partially responsible for this inequality. Future research on cardiovascular healthcare in patients with diverse racial/ethnic backgrounds in universal healthcare systems is needed to remediate racial inequality in ACS management.

Emergency room evaluation and recommendations for older emergency department users: results of the ER2 experimental study

PURPOSE

The study aims to examine whether the use of "emergency room evaluation and recommendations" (ER²) tool in daily ED practice reduces the length of stay in ED and hospital, and hospital admission in older patients visiting ED on stretcher.

METHODS

A total of 3931 older patients visiting ED of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) on stretcher were recruited in this non-randomized, pre-post intervention, single arm, prospective and longitudinal open-label trial. ED staff and patients were blinded of the ER² score and patients received usual ED care over the observational phase, whereas ED staff were informed about the ER² score and patients had usual care plus interventions based on tailor-made geriatric recommendations during the interventional phase. The length of stay in ED and in hospital, and hospital admission were the outcomes.

RESULTS

The ER² recommendations were associated with increased length of stay in ED (β = 2.94 with P ≤ 0.001) and decreased length of stay in hospital (β = - 2.07 with P = 0.011). No effect was found for hospital admission (Odd Ratio (OR) = 0.92 with P = 0.182).

CONCLUSION

Emergency room evaluation and recommendations (ER²) tool had mixed effects. Shorter hospital stay has been reported for older ED users hospitalized, but increased ED stay and no effects on hospital admission were found.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Utilities of Insulin-Like Growth Factor Binding Protein-7 in Patients With Dyspnea

OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether insulin-like growth factor binding protein-7 (IGFBP7) would aid in the diagnosis and prognosis of acute heart failure (HF) beyond N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration.

BACKGROUND

IGFBP7 is associated with impaired ventricular relaxation and worse prognosis.

METHODS

The ICON-RELOADED (International Collaborative of NT-proBNP-Re-evaluation of Acute Diagnostic Cut-Offs in the Emergency Department) study was a prospective, multicenter clinical trial that enrolled subjects presenting with dyspnea. Six-month prognosis for death or repeat hospitalization was obtained.

RESULTS

Among 1,449 patients, 274 (18.9%) were diagnosed with acute HF. Those with IGFBP7 concentrations in the highest quartile were older, male, had hypertension and HF, had lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and lowest ejection fraction (41 ± 20%; all p < 0.001). Independent predictors of IGFBP7 were age, male sex, history of diabetes, history of HF, and eGFR. Median concentrations of NT-proBNP (2,844 ng/ml vs. 99 ng/ml) and IGFBP7 (146.1 ng/ml vs. 86.1 ng/ml) were higher in those with acute HF (both; p < 0.001). Addition of IGFBP7 to NT-proBNP concentrations improved discrimination, therefore increasing the area under the receiver operating curve for diagnosis of acute HF (from 0.91 to 0.94; p < 0.001 for differences). Addition of IGFBP7 to a complete model of independent predictors of acute HF improved model calibration. IGFBP7 significantly reclassified acute HF diagnosis beyond NT-proBNP (net reclassification index: +0.25). Higher log₂-IGFBP7 concentrations in patients with acute HF predicted death or rehospitalization at 6 months (hazard ratio: 1.84 per log₂-SD; 95% confidence interval: 1.30 to 2.61; p = 0.001). In Kaplan-Meier analyses, supramedian concentrations of IGFBP7 were associated with shorter event-free survival (log-rank: p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with acute dyspnea, concentrations of IGFBP7 add to NT-proBNP for diagnosis of acute HF and provide added prognostic utility for short-term risk.

Prognosis tools for short-term adverse events in older emergency department users: result of a Québec observational prospective cohort

Background

The “Program of Research on the Integration of Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy” (PRISMA-7) and “Emergency room evaluation and recommendations” (ER²) are both clinical tools used in Québec Emergency Departments (EDs) for screening of older ED users at higher risk of poor outcomes, such as prolonged length of stay (LOS) in EDs and in hospital. The study aimed to: 1) examine whether the PRISMA-7 and ER² risk levels were associated with length of stays in ED and hospital, as well as hospital admission; and 2) compare the criteria performance (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratios and area under receiver operating characteristic curve) of the PRISMA-7 and ER2 high-risk levels for these three ED adverse events in Québec older patients visiting ED on a stretcher.

Methods

A total of 1905 older patients who visited the ED of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Québec, Canada) on stretchers were recruited in this prospective observational cohort. Upon their ED arrival, PRISMA-7 and ER² were performed. The outcomes were LOS in ED and in hospital, and hospital admission.

Results

The PRISMA-7 and ER² risk levels were associated with length of stay in ED and hospital as well as with hospital admission. Prolonged stays and higher hospitalization rates were associated with high-risk levels, whereas those in low-risk level groups had significantly shorter LOS and a lower rate of hospital admission (P < 0.006). While performance measures were poor for both assessment tools, ER² had a greater prognostic testing accuracy compared with PRISMA-7.

Conclusion

PRISMA-7 and ER² were both associated with incidental short-term ED adverse events but their overall prognostic testing accuracy was low, suggesting that they cannot be used as prognostic tools for this purpose.

Muscle Mass and Direct Oral Anticoagulant Activity in Older Adults With Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) are hydrophilic drugs with plasma levels inversely proportional to lean body mass. Sarcopenic patients with low muscle mass may be at risk for supra-therapeutic DOAC levels and bleeding complications. We therefore sought to examine the influence of lean body mass on DOAC levels in older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted with patients 65 years of age or more receiving rivaroxaban or apixaban for AF. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was measured using a bioimpedance device and a dual X-ray absorptiometry scanner. DOAC levels were measured using a standardized anti-Xa assay 4 hours after (peak) and 1 hour before (trough) ingestion.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 62 patients (47% female, 77.0 ± 6.1 years). The prescribed DOACs were apixaban 2.5 mg (21%), apixaban 5 mg (53%), and rivaroxaban 20 mg (26%). Overall, 16% had supra-therapeutic DOAC levels at trough and 25% at peak. In the multivariable logistic regression model, lower ALM was independently associated with supra-therapeutic DOAC levels at trough (odds ratio per ↓ 1-kg 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.49) and peak (odds ratio per ↓ 1-kg 1.18, 95% confidence interval 1.02 to 1.37). Addition of ALM to a model consisting of age, total body weight, and renal function resulted in improved discrimination for supra-therapeutic DOAC levels.

CONCLUSION

Our proof-of-concept study has identified an association between ALM and DOAC levels in older adults with AF. Further research is needed to determine the impact of ALM on bleeding complications and the potential role of ALM-guided dosing for sarcopenic patients.

PRISMA-7 and Risk for Short-Term Adverse Events in Older Patients Visiting the Emergency Department: Results of a Large Observational and Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The "Program of Research on the Integration of Services for the Maintenance of Autonomy" (PRISMA-7) is the reference tool for the assessment of older patients visiting the emergency departments (EDs) in the province of Quebec (Canada). This study aimed to examine 1) whether the PRISMA-7 high-risk level for disabilities was associated with the length of stay in ED and in hospital, and hospital admission; and 2) performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], negative predictive value [NPV], likelihood ratios [LR]) of the PRISMA-7 high-risk level for the length of stay in ED and hospital, and hospital admission in older ED users.

METHODS

A total of 12,983 older ED users of the Jewish General Hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) were recruited in this observational and prospective cohort study. All enrolled participants had a PRISMA-7 assessment upon their arrival at ED. The length of stay in ED and hospital, and hospital admission were used as outcomes.

RESULTS

A PRISMA-7 high-risk level was associated with an increased length of stay in ED and hospital (β ≥2.1 with P≤0.001 and Hazard ratio (HR)= ≥1.2 with P≤0.001) as well as in hospital (HR=1.27 with P≤0.001) in patients on a stretcher. All performance criteria were low (i.e., <0.78). Patients with a PRISMA-7 high-risk level were discharged significantly later from ED and hospital compared to those with low-risk level (P=0.001).

INTERPRETATION

A PRISMA-7 high-risk level was associated with a long length of stay in ED and hospital, and hospital admission in patients on a stretcher but had poor performance criteria for these adverse events, suggesting that it cannot be used as a prognostic tool in older ED users.

Diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism with d-Dimer Adjusted to Clinical Probability

BACKGROUND

Retrospective analyses suggest that pulmonary embolism is ruled out by a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter in patients with a low clinical pretest probability (C-PTP) and by a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter in patients with a moderate C-PTP.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study in which pulmonary embolism was considered to be ruled out without further testing in outpatients with a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter or with a moderate C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter. All other patients underwent chest imaging (usually computed tomographic pulmonary angiography). If pulmonary embolism was not diagnosed, patients did not receive anticoagulant therapy. All patients were followed for 3 months to detect venous thromboembolism.

RESULTS

A total of 2017 patients were enrolled and evaluated, of whom 7.4% had pulmonary embolism on initial diagnostic testing. Of the 1325 patients who had a low C-PTP (1285 patients) or moderate C-PTP (40 patients) and a negative d-dimer test (i.e., <1000 or <500 ng per milliliter, respectively), none had venous thromboembolism during follow-up (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.00 to 0.29%). These included 315 patients who had a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of 500 to 999 ng per milliliter (95% CI, 0.00 to 1.20%). Of all 1863 patients who did not receive a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism initially and did not receive anticoagulant therapy, 1 patient (0.05%; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.30) had venous thromboembolism. Our diagnostic strategy resulted in the use of chest imaging in 34.3% of patients, whereas a strategy in which pulmonary embolism is considered to be ruled out with a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter would result in the use of chest imaging in 51.9% (difference, -17.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -19.2 to -15.9).

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter identified a group of patients at low risk for pulmonary embolism during follow-up. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; PEGeD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02483442.).

Screening for older inpatients at risk for long length of stay: which clinical tool to use?

Background

Screening for inpatients at risk for long length of stay (LOS) is the first step of an effective hospital care plan for older inpatients. This study aims, in older adults admitted to a geriatric acute care ward, to examine and compare the 6-item brief geriatric assessment (BGA) and the “Programme de Recherche sur l’Intégration des Services pour le Maintien de l’Autonomie” (PRISMA-7) risk levels with long LOS, and to establish their performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratios) for LOS.

Methods

Based on an observational, retrospective, cohort design, 166 inpatients aged ≥75 admitted to a geriatric acute care ward of a McGill University-affiliated hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada) were recruited. The risk levels of the 6-item BGA (low, moderate and high) and the PRISMA-7 (low versus high) were calculated from a baseline assessment. The LOS was subsequently calculated in number of days.

Results

Only the 6-item BGA high risk level was associated with a long LOS (Odds ratio = 1.1 with P = 0.028 and Hazard ratio = 2.1 with P = 0.004). Kaplan-Meier distributions showed that there was no significant difference in the delay of hospital discharge between the low and high-risk level reported by the PRISMA-7 (P = 0.381), whereas the 6-item BGA three risk levels differed significantly (P = 0.008), with individuals at high risk levels being discharged later when compared to those with low (P = 0.001) and moderate (P = 0.019) risk levels. Both tools’ performance criteria were poor (i.e., < 0.70), except for PRISMA-7’s sensitivity which was 100%.

Conclusion

The 6-item BGA risk levels were associated with LOS, low risk-level being associated with short LOS and high-risk level with long LOS, but no association was reported with the PRISMA-7 risk levels. Both tools had poor performance criteria for long LOS, suggesting that they cannot be used as prognostic tools with current scientific knowledge.

Ten-Year Statin Adherence in Survivors of ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background          Adherence to statins is often sub-optimal and declines over time. Direct costs incurred by patients are frequently cited as responsible for inadequate statin adherence. To determine whether survivors of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), who benefit from low or no cost drug dispensation, have optimal long-term adherence to statins, we aimed to evaluate the ten-year adherence to statin of these patients. Methods          The AMI-QUEBEC Study follows a cohort of STEMI survivors hospitalized at 17 hospitals in Quebec, Canada during the year 2003. We obtained their 10-year data on lipid lowering therapy (LLT) consumption. Optimal adherence was defined as the proportion of days covered of ≥80%. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine factors independently associated with optimal adherence to statins. Results          Complete 10-year data on statin dispensation was available for 524 patients. Optimal adherence remained stable over time at 80% and more during the 10-year follow-up period. During the last five years, 12% of patients did not use any LLT. Older age, living in less socially deprived areas, concomitant use of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), and admission to hospitals with percutaneous coronary interventions facilities (PCI-hospitals) were associated with improved statin adherence.   Conclusion Future studies are needed to explore the potential factors associated with concomitant use of ACEI/ARB, and admission to PCI-hospitals that may have optimized statin adherence. Socially deprived patients may benefit from more support and encouragement to enhance their long-term statin adherence.

Impact of an invasive strategy in the elderly hospitalized with acute coronary syndrome with emphasis on the nonagenarians

BACKGROUND

Published data about nonagenarians with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) were mainly descriptive and limited by small sample sizes and unadjusted outcomes. We aim to describe the characteristics, management, and the impact of an invasive strategy on major adverse events in elderly patients hospitalized with ACS with focus on the nonagerians.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data collected as part of the AMI-OPTIMA study, a cluster-randomized study of knowledge translation intervention versus usual care on optimal discharge medications in patients admitted with ACS at 24 Canadian hospitals. To determine whether an invasive strategy improved outcomes in the elderly, we used inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounders between patients who underwent invasive versus conservative strategies. Of 4,569 consecutive patients: 2,395 (52%) were <70 years old, 1,031 (23%) were septuagenarians, 941 (21%) were octogenarians, and 202 (4.4%) were nonagenarians. An invasive strategy was associated with reduced in-hospital all-cause mortality in all age groups: 1.1% versus 3.8% in patients <70 years old (P < 0.001), 2.9% versus 7.4% in septuagenarians (P < 0.001), 5.1% versus 14.7% in octogenarians (P < 0.001), and 12.0% versus 25.1% in nonagenarians (P = 0.001). An invasive strategy was also associated with higher thrombolysis in myocardial infarction major bleeds in the nonagenarians (9.0% vs. 2.0%; P = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

The reduction in in-hospital mortality associated with an invasive strategy in elderly and nonagenarians presented with ACS is generating hypothesis and merits further studies to confirm these benefits and to guide clinicians in the management of these high-risk patients.

Predicting a long hospital stay after admission to a geriatric assessment unit: Results from an observational retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Morbidities and related disabilities often lead to older inpatients having a long hospital stay. The aim of this study was to examine whether the 6-item brief geriatric assessment (BGA), developed and validated in France to determine a priori levels of risk of a long hospital stay (i.e.; low, moderate, high), could be successfully used with patients admitted to a geriatric assessment unit (GAU) in Quebec.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational retrospective cohort design.

SETTING

A GAU of a McGill University affiliated hospital (Montreal, Quebec, Canada).

PARTICIPANTS

499 inpatients (84.7 ± 7.2 years; 73.3% female) recruited upon their admission.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The BGA comprises 6 items: age > 85 years, male gender, ≥ 5 drugs per day, use of home-help support, history of falls and temporal disorientation. It was administered at baseline and a priori levels of risk of a long hospital stay (i.e., low, moderate, high) were determined. Length of hospital stay (LHS, in days) was calculated using the hospital registry. The association between a priori levels of risk from the BGA and LSH was examined using regression models and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

The LHS increased with the 6-item BGA a priori level of risk (P = 0.010). High-risk (Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.68 with P < 0.001) and moderate-risk (HR = 1.24 with P = 0.039) of a long hospital stay successfully predicted a long stay. Kaplan-Meier distributions of time to discharge showed that inpatients classified as having high and moderate risk levels for a long hospital stay were discharged later than those with a low risk level (P < 0.001 and P = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

The 6-item BGA a priori levels of risk for a long hospital stay successfully predicted a long stay among patients admitted to a GAU in Quebec.

Recurrent Cardiovascular Events in Survivors of Myocardial Infarction With ST-Segment Elevation (from the AMI-QUEBEC Study)

The characteristics and predictors of long-term recurrent ischemic cardiovascular events (RICEs) after myocardial infarction with ST-segment elevation (STEMI) have not yet been clarified. We aimed to characterize the 10-year incidence, types, and predictors of RICE. We obtained 10-year follow-up of STEMI survivors at 17 Quebec hospitals in Canada (the AMI-QUEBEC Study) in 2003. There were 858 patients; mean age was 60 years and 73% were male. The majority of patients receive reperfusion therapy; 53.3% and 39.2% of patients received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and fibrinolytic therapy, respectively. Seventy-five percent of patients underwent in-hospital PCI (elective, rescue, and primary). At 10 years, 42% of patients suffered a RICE, with most RICEs (88%) caused by recurrent cardiac ischemia. The risk of RICE was the highest during the first year (23.5 per patient-year). At 10 years, the all-cause mortality was 19.3%, with 1/3 of deaths being RICE-related. Previous cardiovascular event, heart failure during the index STEMI hospitalization, discharge prescription of calcium blocker increased the risk of RICE by almost twofold. Each point increase in TIMI (Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction) score augmented the risk of RICE by 6%, whereas discharge prescription of dual antiplatelets reduced the risk of RICE by 23%. Our findings suggested that survivors of STEMI remain at high long-term risk of RICE despite high rate of reperfusion therapy and in-hospital PCI. Patients with previous cardiovascular event, in-hospital heart failure, and high TIMI score were particularly susceptible to RICE. Future studies are needed to confirm the impacts of calcium blocker and dual antiplatelets on long-term risk of RICE.

Patient Needs, Required Level of Care, and Reasons Delaying Hospital Discharge for Nonacute Patients Occupying Acute Hospital Beds

This study aims to determine the proportion of nonacute patients occupying acute care beds and to describe their needs, the appropriate level of alternative care, and reasons preventing discharge. Data from 952 patients hospitalized in an acute care unit for 30 days were obtained from their medical charts and by consulting with the medical team at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Among them, 333 (35%) were determined nonacute on day 30 of hospitalization. According to the Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP), 55% had no medical, nursing, or patient needs. Among nonacute patients with AEP needs, 88% were related to nursing/life-support services and 12% related to patient condition factors. Regarding alternative level of care, 186 (56%) were waiting for out-of-hospital resources, of which 36% were waiting for palliative care, 33% for long-term care, 18% for rehabilitation, and 12% for home care. For the remaining 147 (44%) nonacute patients, the alternative resources remained undetermined although acute care was no longer required. Main reasons preventing discharge included unavailability of alternative resources, ongoing assessment to determine appropriate resources, ongoing process with community care, and family/patient education/counseling. Available subacute facilities and community-based care would liberate acute care beds and facilitate their appropriate use.

Detection and correction of prescription errors by an emergency department pharmacy service

OBJECTIVES

Emergency departments (EDs) are recognized as a high-risk setting for prescription errors. Pharmacist involvement may be important in reviewing prescriptions to identify and correct errors. The objectives of this study were to describe the frequency and type of prescription errors detected by pharmacists in EDs, determine the proportion of errors that could be corrected, and identify factors associated with prescription errors.

METHODS

This prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care teaching ED on 25 consecutive weekdays. Pharmacists reviewed all documented prescriptions and flagged and corrected errors for patients in the ED. We collected information on patient demographics, details on prescription errors, and the pharmacists' recommendations.

RESULTS

A total of 3,136 ED prescriptions were reviewed. The proportion of prescriptions in which a pharmacist identified an error was 3.2% (99 of 3,136; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-3.8). The types of identified errors were wrong dose (28 of 99, 28.3%), incomplete prescription (27 of 99, 27.3%), wrong frequency (15 of 99, 15.2%), wrong drug (11 of 99, 11.1%), wrong route (1 of 99, 1.0%), and other (17 of 99, 17.2%). The pharmacy service intervened and corrected 78 (78 of 99, 78.8%) errors. Factors associated with prescription errors were patient age over 65 (odds ratio [OR] 2.34; 95% CI 1.32-4.13), prescriptions with more than one medication (OR 5.03; 95% CI 2.54-9.96), and those written by emergency medicine residents compared to attending emergency physicians (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.18-4.14).

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacists in a tertiary ED are able to correct the majority of prescriptions in which they find errors. Errors are more likely to be identified in prescriptions written for older patients, those containing multiple medication orders, and those prescribed by emergency residents.