Otitis media at 6-monthly assessments of Australian First Nations children between ages 12-36 months: Findings from two randomised controlled trials of combined pneumococcal conjugate vaccines

OBJECTIVES

In remote communities of northern Australia, First Nations children with hearing loss are disproportionately at risk of poor school readiness and performance compared to their peers with no hearing loss. The aim of this trial is to prevent early childhood persisting otitis media (OM), associated hearing loss and developmental delay. To achieve this, we designed a mixed pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) schedule that could maximise immunogenicity and thereby prevent bacterial otitis media (OM) and a trajectory of educational and social disadvantage.

METHODS

In two sequential parallel, open-label, randomised controlled trials, eligible infants were first allocated 1:1:1 to standard or mixed PCV primary schedules at age 28-38 days, then at age 12 months to a booster dose (1:1) of 13-valent PCV, PCV13 (Prevenar13®, +P), or 10-valent pneumococcal non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugated vaccine, PHiD-CV10 (Synflorix®, +S). Here we report findings of standardised ear assessments conducted six-monthly from age 12-36 months, by booster dose.

RESULTS

From March 2013 to September 2018, 261 children were allocated to booster + P (n = 131) or + S (n = 130). There were no significant differences in prevalence of any OM diagnosis by booster dose or when stratified by primary schedule. We found high, almost identical prevalence of OM in both boost groups at each age (for example 88% of 129 and 91% of 128 children seen, respectively, at primary endpoint age 18 months, difference -3% [95% Confidence Interval -11, 5]). At each age prevalence of bilateral OM was 52%-78%, and tympanic membrane perforation was 10%-18%.

CONCLUSION

Despite optimal pneumococcal immunisation, the high prevalence of OM persists throughout early childhood. Novel approaches to OM prevention are needed, along with improved early identification strategies and evaluation of expanded valency PCVs.

Cessation of berry growth coincides with leaf complete stomatal closure at pre-veraison for grapevine (Vitis vinifera) subjected to progressive drought stress

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Drought events have devasting impacts on grape berry production. The aim of this study was to investigate berry growth in the context of leaf stomatal closure under progressive drought stress.

METHODS

Potted grapevine plants (varieties 'Syrah' and 'Cabernet Sauvignon') were evaluated at pre-verasion (30-45 d after anthesis, DAA) and post-veraison (90-107 DAA). Berry diameter, berry absolute growth rate (AGR), leaf stomatal conductance (Gs) at midday, plant water potential at predawn and midday (ΨPD and ΨMD, respectively), and soil relative water content were measured repeatedly. The ΨPD-threshold of 90 % loss in stomatal conductance (Gs10, i.e. complete stomatal closure) was determined. Data were related to plant dehydration phases I, II and III with corresponding boundaries Θ1 and Θ2, using the water potential curve method.

KEY RESULTS

At pre-veraison, berry AGR declined together with leaf Gs in response to soil drying in both varieties. Berry AGR transitioned from positive to negative (shrinkage) values when leaf Gs approached zero. The Gs10-threshold was -0.81 MPa in 'Syrah' and -0.74 MPa in 'Cabernet Sauvignon' and was linked to boundary Θ1. At post-veraison, berry AGR was negligible and negative AGR values were not intensified by increasing drought stress in either variety.

CONCLUSION

Leaf complete stomatal closure under progressive drought stress coincides with cessation of berry growth followed by shrinkage at pre-veraison (growth stage 1).

Pneumonitis After Concurrent Chemoradiation and Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Patients with Locally Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer

AIMS

Pneumonitis is a common and potentially deadly complication of combined chemoradiation and immune checkpoint inhibition (CRT-ICI) in patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). In this study we sought to identify the risk factors for pneumonitis with CRT-ICI therapy in LA-NSCLC cases and determine its impact on survival.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a retrospective chart review of 140 patients with LA-NSCLC who underwent curative-intent CRT-ICI with durvalumab between 2018 and 2021. Pneumonitis was diagnosed by a multidisciplinary team of clinical experts. We used multivariable cause-specific hazard models to identify risk factors associated with grade ≥2 pneumonitis. We constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard models to investigate the impact of pneumonitis on all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The median age of the cohort was 67 years; most patients were current or former smokers (86%). The cumulative incidence of grade ≥2 pneumonitis was 23%. Among survivors, 25/28 patients had persistent parenchymal scarring. In multivariable analyses, the mean lung dose (hazard ratio 1.14 per Gy, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.25) and interstitial lung disease (hazard ratio 3.8, 95% confidence interval 1.3-11.0) increased the risk for pneumonitis. In adjusted models, grade ≥2 pneumonitis (hazard ratio 2.5, 95% confidence interval 1.0-6.2, P = 0.049) and high-grade (≥3) pneumonitis (hazard ratio 8.3, 95% confidence interval 3.0-23.0, P < 0.001) were associated with higher all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for pneumonitis in LA-NSCLC patients undergoing CRT-ICI include the mean radiation dose to the lung and pre-treatment interstitial lung disease. Although most cases are not fatal, pneumonitis in this setting is associated with markedly increased mortality.

Growth with Commensal Streptococci Alters Streptococcus mutans Behaviors

As oral bacteria grow and persist within biofilms attached to the tooth's surface, they interact with other species to form synergistic or antagonistic exchanges that govern homeostasis for the overall population. One example are the interactions between the cariogenic species Streptococcus mutans and oral commensal streptococci. Previously, we showed that the cell-cell signaling pathways of S. mutans were inhibited during coculture with other oral streptococci species, leading us to posit that the S. mutans transcriptome and behaviors are broadly altered during growth with these species. To test this hypothesis, we performed whole transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) on cocultures of S. mutans with either Streptococcus gordonii, Streptococcus sanguinis, or Streptococcus oralis and a quadculture containing all 4 species in comparison to S. mutans grown alone. Our results reveal that in addition to species-dependent changes to the S. mutans transcriptome, a conserved response to oral streptococci in general can be observed. We monitored the behavior of S. mutans by both microscopy imaging of biofilms and in a bacteriocin overlay assay and verified that S. mutans acts similarly with each of these species but noted divergences in phenotypes when cocultured with another cariogenic Streptococcus (Streptococcus sobrinus) or with oral nonstreptococci species. RNA-seq with oral nonstreptococci showed lack of a consistent gene expression profile and overlap of differentially expressed genes found with commensal streptococci. Finally, we investigated the role of upregulated S. mutans genes within our data sets to determine if they provided a fitness benefit during interspecies interactions. Eleven total genes were studied, and we found that a majority impacted the fitness of S. mutans in various assays, highlighted by increased biomass of commensal streptococci in mixed-species biofilms. These results confirm a common, species-independent modification of S. mutans behaviors with oral commensal streptococci that emphasizes the need to further evaluate oral bacteria within multispecies settings.

Psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care: A survey of current practice across UK and Ireland

Introduction

Psychological and psychosocial impacts of major trauma, defined as any injury that has the potential to be life-threatening and/or life changing, are common, far-reaching and often enduring. There is evidence that these aspects of major trauma care are often underserved. The aim of this research was to gain insight into the current provision and operationalisation of psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care across the UK and Ireland.

Methods

A cross-sectional online survey, open to health professionals working in major trauma network hospitals was undertaken. The survey had 69 questions across six sections: Participant Demographics, Psychological First Aid, Psychosocial Assessment and Care, Assessing and Responding to Distress, Clinical Psychology Services, and Major Trauma Keyworker (Coordinator) Role.

Results

There were 102 respondents from across the regions and from a range of professional groups. Survey findings indicate a lack of formalised systems to assess, respond and evaluate psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care, most notably for patients with lower-level distress and psychosocial support needs, and for trauma populations that don't reach threshold for serious injury or complex health need. The findings highlight the role of major trauma keyworkers (coordinators) in psychosocial aspects of care and that although major trauma clinical psychology services are increasingly embedded, many lack the capacity to meet demand.

Conclusion

Neglecting psychological and psychosocial aspects of major trauma care may extend peritraumatic distress, result in preventable Years Lived with Disability and widen post-trauma health inequalities. A stepped psychological and psychosocial care pathway for major trauma patients and their families from the point of injury and continuing as they move through services towards recovery is needed. Research to fulfil knowledge gaps to develop and implement such a model for major trauma populations should be prioritised along with the development of corresponding service specifications for providers.

COVID-19: Extensive epithelial damage and ciliary dyskinesia in hospitalised patients

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 can cause severe respiratory disease and it is predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will leave a substantial number of patients with long-term respiratory complications (1).

Public Mental Health services in the European region during the COVID-19 pandemic

The European Public Health Association (EUPHA), in conjunction with the Mental Health Foundation UK, conducted a purposely designed online survey of public and mental health professionals from across Europe, exploring public mental health responses to the pandemic in different regions, nations and localities. Participants were recruited from EUPHAs mental health division and through snowballing. Four broad areas were explored, namely; (1) perceived changes in available mental health supports during the pandemic; (2) whether or not a public mental health response plan had been developed; (3) if any demographic groups or priority areas had been given particularly consideration in this response and (4) how the response had been developed (i.e. whether intersectoral approaches had been adopted and the perceived degree to which service users and carers had been included in its development). Forty-four survey responses from twenty different European nations were collected and grouped according to whether respondents were practising in countries with low, medium or high COVID-19 incidence rates. The majority of responses were from public health professionals with over 20 years of experience. Results indicated wide variations in policy responses to the crisis and in the way mental health services have adapted to date. However, in the majority of countries surveyed, while an increase in online mental health supports during the pandemic was reported, no change in long term funding for mental health supports was observed. In addition, in the majority of countries, several vulnerable groups were rarely given specific attention in policy responses, namely low-income families, people with long-term health conditions or disabilities and ethnic minorities. In this workshop we will discuss the findings from this survey and explore what insights might be learned from experiences across Europe to date.

The use of psoriasis biomarkers, including trajectory of clinical response, to predict clearance and remission duration to UVB phototherapy

BACKGROUND

Remission duration and treatment response following phototherapy for psoriasis are highly variable and factors influencing these are poorly understood.

OBJECTIVES

Our primary outcome was to investigate whether selected clinical/serum biomarkers were associated with remission duration, and secondly with psoriasis clearance at the end of phototherapy. In addition, we looked at whether early trajectory of UVB clearance was associated with final clearance outcome.

METHODS

We performed a prospective cohort study of 100 psoriasis patients, routinely prescribed Narrowband UVB and measured selected clinical and biochemical biomarkers, including weekly PASI (psoriasis area and severity index) scores. Patients were followed up for 18 months.

RESULTS

The median time to relapse was 6 months (95% CI 5-18) if PASI90 was achieved, and 4 months (95% CI 3-9) if less than PASI90 was achieved. Achieving PASI100 did not result in prolonged remission. On UVB completion, the median final PASI (n = 96) was 1.0 (IQR 0.5, 1.6) with 78 (81%) achieving PASI75 and 39 (41%) achieving PASI90. Improved PASI90 response was significantly associated with lower BMI, higher baseline PASI, non-smoking status and lower cumulative NbUVB. Serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) and vitamin D were not associated with clearance or remission duration. Early treatment response from weeks 2-3 was predictive of final outcome. For example, achieving PASI30 at week 3 was significantly associated with PASI90 at the end of the course [36/77 (51%) vs. 2/24 (8%), P < 0.001].

CONCLUSIONS

Raised BMI and positive smoking status predicted poorer phototherapy response. For the first time, we have shown that PASI clearance trajectory over the first 2-3 weeks of UVB, can predict psoriasis clearance. This is an important new step towards developing psoriasis personalized prescribing, which can now be formally tested in clinical trials. These simple clinical measures can be used to inform patient treatment expectations; allowing treatment modifications and/or switching to alternative therapies.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of otitis media pathogens in infants receiving 10-valent non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10), 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) or a mixed primary schedule of both vaccines: A randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Aboriginal children in Northern Australia have a high burden of otitis media, driven by early and persistent nasopharyngeal carriage of otopathogens, including non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) and Streptococcus pneumoniae (Spn). In this context, does a combined mixed primary series of Synflorix and Prevenar13 provide better protection against nasopharyngeal carriage of NTHi and Spn serotypes 3, 6A and 19A than either vaccine alone?

METHODS

Aboriginal infants (n = 425) were randomised to receive Synflorix™ (S, PHiD-CV10) or Prevenar13™ (P, PCV13) at 2, 4 and 6 months (_SSS or _PPP, respectively), or a 4-dose early mixed primary series of PHiD-CV10 at 1, 2 and 4 months and PCV13 at 6 months of age (SSSP). Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at 1, 2, 4, 6 and 7 months of age. Swabs of ear discharge were collected from tympanic membrane perforations.

FINDINGS

At the primary endpoint at 7 months of age, the proportion of nasopharyngeal (Np) swabs positive for PCV13-only serotypes 3, 6A, or 19A was 0%, 0.8%, and 1.5% in the _PPP, _SSS, and SSSP groups respectively, and NTHi 55%, 52%, and 52% respectively, and no statistically significant vaccine group differences in other otopathogens at any age. The most common serotypes (in order) were 16F, 11A, 10A, 7B, 15A, 6C, 35B, 23B, 13, and 15B, accounting for 65% of carriage. Ear discharge swabs (n = 108) were culture positive for NTHi (52%), S. aureus (32%), and pneumococcus (20%).

CONCLUSIONS

Aboriginal infants experience nasopharyngeal colonisation and tympanic membrane perforations associated with NTHi, non-PCV13 pneumococcal serotypes and S. aureus in the first months of life. Nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococcus or NTHi was not significantly reduced in the early 4-dose combined SSSP group compared to standard _PPP or _SSS schedules at any time point. Current pneumococcal conjugate vaccine formulations do not offer protection from early onset NTHi and pneumococcal colonisation in this high-risk population.

A systematic review and in-depth analysis of outcome reporting in early phase studies of colorectal cancer surgical innovation

AIM

Early phase studies are essential to evaluate new technologies prior to randomized evaluation. Evaluation is limited, however, by inconsistent measurement and reporting of outcomes. This study examines outcome reporting in studies of innovative colorectal cancer surgery.

METHODS

Systematic searches identified studies of invasive procedures treating primary colorectal adenocarcinoma. Included were a random sample of studies which authors reported as 'new' or 'modified'. Outcomes were extracted verbatim and categorized using an existing framework of 32 domains relevant to early phase studies. Outcomes were classified as 'measured' (where there was an explicit statement to that effect or evidence that data collection had occurred) or 'mentioned but not measured' (where outcomes were discussed but data collection was not evident). Patterns of identified outcomes are described.

RESULTS

Of 8373 records, 816 were potentially eligible. Full-text review of a random sample of 218 studies identified 51 for inclusion of which 34 (66%) were 'new' and 17 (33%) were 'modified'. Some 2073 outcomes were identified, and all mapped to domains. 'Anticipated disadvantages' were most frequently identified [660 (32%) outcomes identified across 50 (98%) studies]. No domain was represented in all studies. Under half (944, 46%) of outcomes were 'measured'. 'Surgeon's/operator's experience of the innovation' was more frequently 'mentioned but not measured' [207 (18%) outcomes across 46 (90%) studies] than 'measured' [17 (2%) outcomes, 11 (22%) studies].

CONCLUSION

There is outcome reporting heterogeneity in studies of early phase colorectal cancer surgery. The adoption of core outcome sets may help to resolve these inconsistencies and enable efficient evaluation of surgical innovations.

Burnout and attitudes toward deliberate self harm amongst UK junior doctors

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) is a major global health problem and a significant risk factor for death by suicide. Despite this, those who suffer are often confronted with negative attitudes from healthcare professionals whilst seeking help, with detrimental consequences for treatment outcomes. While several factors may affect attitudes to DSH amongst healthcare professionals, there is now growing evidence to suggest an association with burnout. As current levels of burnout amongst junior doctors are estimated to be high, understanding the nature of this association is crucial. The over-arching aim of this project is therefore to explore junior doctors' attitudes toward DSH in comparison with other presenting conditions and to explore any possible relationship these may have with features of burnout. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey of junior doctors working within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde. After collecting sociodemographic information, participants were presented with both the abbreviated Maslach Burnout Inventory and the Medical Condition Regard Scale for patients presenting with; Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), Type I Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM), Schizophrenia and DSH. Significant differences in attitudes according to presenting complaints/conditions were identified. Participants reported the highest regard for TIDM and lowest regard for DSH, varying as a function of speciality and years of NHS service. 21% of participants were experiencing 'burnout' to a high degree, and scores also varied as a function of speciality and years of NHS service. No association between burnout and attitudes were observed for any of the investigated diagnoses. Our findings highlight the desperate need for evidence-based interventions to address burnout and negative attitudes toward DSH amongst junior doctors. Moreover, they may suggest that these attitudes worsen through the course of junior doctor training. We would therefore advocate for further research to assess the efficacy of interventions designed to address this.

Outcome selection, measurement and reporting for new surgical procedures and devices: a systematic review of IDEAL/IDEAL-D studies to inform development of a core outcome set

BACKGROUND

Outcome selection, measurement and reporting for the evaluation of new surgical procedures and devices is inconsistent and lacks standardization. A core outcome set may promote the safe and transparent evaluation of surgical innovations. This systematic review examined outcome selection, measurement and reporting in studies conducted within the IDEAL (Idea, Development, Exploration, Assessment and Long-term monitoring) framework to examine current practice and inform the development of a core outcome set for early-phase studies of surgical procedures/devices.

METHODS

Web of Science and Scopus citation searches were performed to identify author-reported IDEAL/IDEAL-D studies for any surgical procedure/device. Outcomes were extracted verbatim, including contextual information regarding outcome selection and measurement. Outcomes were categorized to inform a conceptual framework of outcome domains relevant to evaluating innovation.

RESULTS

Some 48 studies were identified. Outcome selection, measurement and reporting varied widely across studies in different IDEAL stages. From 1737 outcomes extracted, 22 domains specific to evaluating innovation were conceptualized under seven broad categories: procedure completion success/failure; modifications; unanticipated events; surgeons' experiences; patients' experiences; resource use specific to the innovative procedure/device; and other innovation-specific outcomes. Most innovation-specific outcomes were measured and reported in only a small number of studies.

CONCLUSION

This review highlighted the need for guidance and standardization in outcome selection and reporting in the evaluation of new surgical procedures/devices. Novel outcome domains specific to innovation have been identified to establish a core outcome set for future evaluations of surgical innovations.

Correlation between work impairment, scores of rhinitis severity and asthma using the MASK-air® App

BACKGROUND

In allergic rhinitis, a relevant outcome providing information on the effectiveness of interventions is needed. In MASK-air (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network), a visual analogue scale (VAS) for work is used as a relevant outcome. This study aimed to assess the performance of the work VAS work by comparing VAS work with other VAS measurements and symptom-medication scores obtained concurrently.

METHODS

All consecutive MASK-air users in 23 countries from 1 June 2016 to 31 October 2018 were included (14 189 users; 205 904 days). Geolocalized users self-assessed daily symptom control using the touchscreen functionality on their smart phone to click on VAS scores (ranging from 0 to 100) for overall symptoms (global), nose, eyes, asthma and work. Two symptom-medication scores were used: the modified EAACI CSMS score and the MASK control score for rhinitis. To assess data quality, the intra-individual response variability (IRV) index was calculated.

RESULTS

A strong correlation was observed between VAS work and other VAS. The highest levels for correlation with VAS work and variance explained in VAS work were found with VAS global, followed by VAS nose, eye and asthma. In comparison with VAS global, the mCSMS and MASK control score showed a lower correlation with VAS work. Results are unlikely to be explained by a low quality of data arising from repeated VAS measures.

CONCLUSIONS

VAS work correlates with other outcomes (VAS global, nose, eye and asthma) but less well with a symptom-medication score. VAS work should be considered as a potentially useful AR outcome in intervention studies.

Child Caries Management: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Dental Practice

This multicenter 3-arm, parallel-group, patient-randomized controlled trial compared clinical effectiveness of 3 treatment strategies over 3 y for managing dental caries in primary teeth in UK primary dental care. Participants aged 3 to 7 y with at least 1 primary molar with dentinal carious lesion were randomized across 3 arms (1:1:1 via centrally administered system with variable-length random permuted blocks): C+P, conventional carious lesion management (complete carious tooth tissue removal and restoration placement) with prevention; B+P, biological management (sealing in carious tooth tissue restoratively) with prevention; and PA, prevention alone (diet, plaque removal, fluorides, and fissure sealants). Parents, children, and dentists were not blind to allocated arm. Co–primary outcomes were 1) the proportion of participants with at least 1 episode of dental pain and/or infection and 2) the number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection during follow-up (minimum, 23 mo). In sum, 1,144 participants were randomized (C+P, n = 386; B+P, n = 381; PA, n = 377) by 72 general dental practitioners, of whom 1,058 (C+P, n = 352; B+P, n = 352; PA, n = 354) attended at least 1 study visit and were included in the primary analysis. The median follow-up was 33.8 mo (interquartile range, 23.8 to 36.7). Proportions of participants with at least 1 episode of dental pain and/or infection were as follows: C+P, 42%; B+P, 40%; PA, 45%. There was no evidence of a difference in incidence of dental pain and/or infection when B+P (adjusted risk difference [97.5% CI]: −2% [−10% to 6%]) or PA (4% [−4% to 12%]) was compared with C+P. The mean (SD) number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection were as follows: C+P, 0.62 (0.95); B+P, 0.58 (0.87); and PA, 0.72 (0.98). Superiority could not be concluded for number of episodes between B+P (adjusted incident rate ratio (97.5% CI): 0.95 [0.75 to 1.21]) or PA (1.18 [0.94 to 1.48]) and C+P. In conclusion, there was no evidence of a difference among the 3 treatment approaches for incidence or number of episodes of dental pain and/or infection experienced by these participants with high caries risk and established disease (trial registration: ISRCTN77044005).

P3131Evolution of subclinical rheumatic heart disease: a multi-centre retrospective cohort study

Background

Screening echocardiography (echo) detects subclinical rheumatic heart disease (RHD) which is categorised as definite or borderline. The natural history of subclinical RHD is not known. Follow up single centre studies have included a relatively small number of participants, and have shown variable progression rates.

Aim

To determine incidence of and factors associated with progression and regression among a cohort of children with baseline subclinical RHD across multiple countries and regions.

Methods

This is a retrospective cohort study of RHD evolution in children with subclinical RHD. Study sites were Australia, Fiji, Malawi, New Zealand, and Uganda. Progression or regression was determined from echos obtained at baseline and most recent follow-up. Factors associated with echo progression or regression were identified using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

482 participants (131 with definite, 351 with borderline subclinical RHD) from 5 countries were included (mean age 11.5 years, range 5–19 years). Mean follow up was 3.4 yrs (range 0.4–9.5 yrs). Of 482 participating children, 204 (42%) regressed. Among 131 children with definite lesions, 48 (37%) regressed to borderline or normal, and 83 (63%) remained definite. Among 351 children with borderline lesions, 39 (11.1%) progressed, 156 (44.4%) remained borderline, and 156 (44.4%) regressed to normal. World Heart Federation defines subcategories based on characteristics of affected valves. By subcategory, children with definite C (pathological aortic regurgitation and 2 morphologic characteristics of the aortic valve) and borderline A (at least 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve without pathologic mitral regurgitation or stenosis) were less likely to regress, and borderline A was more likely to progress. In univariable analysis, good adherence (>80%) to penicillin prophylaxis (BPG) was associated with more regression among all patients (definite + borderline) (OR 1.9, CI 1, 3.5; p=0.04) but this association did not remain significant after adjustment. With multivariable analysis, borderlines prescribed BPG was the only factor related to progression from borderline to definite (OR 4.1, CI 1.8, 9.3, p<0.01).

Conclusion

This is the largest reported subclinical RHD cohort followed to report outcomes. 42% of definite RHD regressed with subtype C more likely to regress. 11% of borderline RHD progressed. Borderline A was more likely to progress and less likely to regress. We have also identified that being prescribed BPG is associated with borderline progression. This is likely because children with more advanced borderline disease may be more likely to be prescribed BPG. This study highlights that RHD evolution is variable out to 3–4 years post echo detection. While borderline disease is likely, in some cases, to reflect the earliest change of RHD, how this should be monitored and whether it should be treated with BPG should be a priority for future prospective evaluation.

P666Anti-platelet therapy in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: randomised controlled proof of concept trial (APPLE COPD-ICON 2)

Acknowledgement/Funding

Astra Zeneca (Funder reference number ISSBRIL0303)

Psoriasis treat to target: defining outcomes in psoriasis using data from a real-world, population-based cohort study (the British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register, BADBIR)

Background

The ‘treat to target’ paradigm improves outcomes and reduces costs in chronic disease management but is not yet established in psoriasis.

Objectives

To identify treatment targets in psoriasis using two common measures of disease activity: Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) and Physician's Global Assessment (PGA).

Methods

Data from a multicentre longitudinal U.K. cohort of patients with psoriasis receiving systemic or biologic therapies (British Association of Dermatologists Biologics and Immunomodulators Register, BADBIR) were used to identify absolute PASI thresholds for 90% (PASI 90) and 75% (PASI 75) improvements in baseline disease activity, using receiver operating characteristic curves. The relationship between PGA (clear, almost clear, mild, moderate, moderate–severe, severe) and PASI (range 0–72) was described, and the concordance between absolute and relative definitions of response was determined. The same approach was used to establish treatment response and eligibility definitions based on PGA.

Results

Data from 13 422 patients were available (58% male, 91% white ethnicity, mean age 44·9 years), including over 23 000 longitudinal PASI and PGA scores. An absolute PASI ≤ 2 was concordant with PASI 90 and an absolute PASI ≤ 4 was concordant with PASI 75 in 90% and 88% of cases, respectively. These findings were robust to subgroups of timing of assessment, baseline disease severity and treatment modality. PASI and PGA were strongly correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient 0·92). The median PASI increased from 0 (interquartile range 0–0, range 0–23) to 19 (interquartile range 15–25, range 0–64) for PGA clear to severe, respectively. PGA clear/almost clear was concordant with PASI ≤ 2 in 90% of cases, and PGA moderate–severe severe was concordant with the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence PASI eligibility criteria for biologics in 81% of cases.

Conclusions

An absolute PASI ≤ 2 and PGA clear/almost clear represent relevant disease end points to inform treat‐to‐target management strategies in psoriasis.

What's already known about this topic?

The most commonly used relative disease activity measure in psoriasis is ≥ 90% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 90); however, it has several limitations including dependency on a baseline severity assessment.

Defining an absolute target disease activity end point in psoriasis has the potential to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs, as demonstrated by treat‐to‐target approaches in other chronic diseases such as hypertension and diabetes.

The Physician's Global Assessment (PGA) is a popular alternative measure of psoriasis severity in daily practice; however, its utility has not been formally assessed with respect to PASI.

What does this study add?

An absolute PASI ≤ 2 corresponds with PASI 90 response and is a relevant disease end point for treat‐to‐target approaches in psoriasis.

There is a strong correlation between PASI and PGA.

PGA moderate–severe/severe may serve as an alternative eligibility criterion for biologics to PASI‐based definitions, and PGA clear/almost clear is an appropriate alternative absolute treatment end point.

What are the clinical implications of this work?

Absolute PASI ≤ 2 and PGA clear/almost clear represent relevant disease end points to inform treat‐to‐target management strategies in psoriasis.

Linked Editorial: Takeshita. Br J Dermatol 2020; 182:1075–1076.

Persistence and effectiveness of nonbiologic systemic therapies for moderate-to-severe psoriasis in adults: a systematic review

Background

The persistence and effectiveness of systemic therapies for moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis in current clinical practice are poorly characterized.

Objectives

To systematically review observational studies investigating the persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters (FAE) and methotrexate, involving at least 100 adult patients with moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis, exposed to therapy for ≥ 3 months.

Methods

MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and PubMed were searched from 1 January 2007 to 1 November 2017 for observational studies reporting on persistence (therapy duration or the proportion of patients discontinuing therapy during follow‐up) or effectiveness [improvements in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) or Physician's Global Assessment (PGA)]. This review was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018099771.

Results

Of 411 identified studies, eight involving 4624 patients with psoriasis were included. Variations in the definitions and analyses of persistence and effectiveness outcomes prevented a meta‐analysis from being conducted. One prospective multicentre study reported drug survival probabilities of 23% (ciclosporin), 42% (acitretin) and 50% (methotrexate) at 1 year. Effectiveness outcomes were not reported for either acitretin or ciclosporin. The persistence and effectiveness of FAE and methotrexate were better characterized, but mean discontinuation times ranged from 28 to 50 months for FAE and 7·7 to 22·3 months for methotrexate. At 12 months of follow‐up, three studies reported that 76% (FAE), 53% (methotrexate) and 59% (methotrexate) of patients achieved ≥ 75% reduction in PASI, and one reported that 76% of FAE‐exposed patients achieved a markedly improved or clear PGA.

Conclusions

The comparative persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAE and methotrexate in real‐world clinical practice in the past decade cannot be well described due to the inconsistency of the methods used.

What's already known about this topic?

Research examining acitretin, ciclosporin, fumaric acid esters (FAE) and methotrexate for the treatment of moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis has focused on safety and efficacy in randomized controlled trials.

The persistence and effectiveness of acitretin, ciclosporin, FAE and methotrexate since the introduction of biologic therapies in real‐world clinical practice are poorly understood.

What does this study add?

This systematic review examines the persistence and effectiveness of methotrexate, acitretin, ciclosporin and FAE for moderate‐to‐severe psoriasis.

Data on the persistence and effectiveness of systemic therapies are lacking, particularly for acitretin and ciclosporin.

The definitions of persistence and reporting of effectiveness are inconsistent.

Further good‐quality observational studies are needed to explore the real‐world persistence and effectiveness of systemic treatments used for psoriasis.

Linked Comment: Garcia-Doval and Sbidian. Br J Dermatol 2019; 181:237.

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