Exploring the County Level Mortality Pattern Variations in Rural Areas of Iran (2006- 2016)

BACKGROUND

Mortality rate in rural areas is a useful measure of the health of the population and the function of the health system, which varies over space and time. The objective of this research is to explore the spatial and temporal variations in the rural mortality rate in Iran at the county level in 2006, 2011 and 2016.

METHODS

data were gathered from the rural population and mortality statistics published by the Statistical Centre of Iran and the National Organization for Civil Registration. Global spatial patterns were assessed using the Global Moran's I and local clusters through the Local Moran' I.

RESULTS

Spatial distribution of rural mortality rate shows that during the years under study the number of counties with a lower rate has increased. The counties with rate of less form continuous areas in the southwest, central and east regions. The excess risk map reveals significant variations in both value and extent. Also, the values of Moran's index increased from 0.1848 in 2006 to 0.4041 in 2016, which indicates the strengthening of the cluster spatial pattern of the overall rural mortality rate. Local patterns have undergone substantial changes over space and time.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicate significant spatial and temporal variations in rural mortality rates in Iran. Policymakers can use this information to plan and enhance healthcare infrastructure in specific counties. The findings serve for evaluating the effectiveness of health policies, enabling policymakers to make informed decisions, allocate resources efficiently and design targeted interventions for improved public health outcomes.

Bentall Procedure to Repair Acute Type a Aortic Dissection in Pregnant Marfan Syndrome Woman With Preservation of Pregnancy

Background: Acute aortic dissection is the most common life-threatening disorder classically presenting with tearing chest pain radiating to the back yet can have deceiving clinical presentations.Case presentation: The patient was a 22-year-old pregnant woman (gravida 6, para 4, abortion1) at 26 weeks of gestation. She was a known case of Marfan syndrome who developed acute type A aortic dissection during pregnancy. Repair of aortic dissection was done through the Bentall procedure with a composite mechanical valved conduit while Fetal heart rate (FHR) was simultaneously monitored during surgery. Three months after surgical repair, the newborn was delivered via cesarean, and both mother and baby survived without any complications.Conclusions: In this case, we demonstrated that repair of type A aortic dissection can be done in pregnant women with preservation of fetus in the uterus through close cooperation among all members of a multi-disciplinary team.

Priority-setting for early access to COVID-19 vaccines in Islamic Republic of Iran

BACKGROUND

Priority-setting for early access to vaccines during a pandemic optimizes the impact of vaccine rollout, however, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have little experience in policymaking on this. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, the national clinical ethics committee developed a policy for early access to COVID-19 vaccines with support from the national committee on COVID-19 vaccine.

AIMS

This paper reports the process and results of a national COVID-19 vaccine priority-setting in the Islamic Republic of Iran and discusses its ethical and cultural aspects.

METHODS

A multidisciplinary team of experts planned and developed a national guideline following an extensive literature review and face-to-face consultations.

RESULTS

We present the list of priority groups and subgroups, tiered through a 4-phase process, as well as the ethical values and sociocultural issues underpinning COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

CONCLUSIONS

Our experience shows that a transparent and well-reasoned policymaking process can inform fair prioritysetting for pandemic vaccines, especially in LMICs.

Is it possible to reduce the rate of vertical transmission and improve perinatal outcomes by inclusion of remdesivir in treatment regimen of pregnant women with COVID-19?

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently one of the world's most critical health issues so far. Given the importance of appropriate treatment in pregnancy and the controversies about Remdesivir effectiveness and complications, the present study aimed to evaluate the impact of Remdesivir on maternal, fetal, and perinatal outcomes in pregnant women with COVID-19 diseases.

METHODS

A total of 189 pregnant women with positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) results for SARS-COV-2, and oxygen saturation [SpO2] of < 95%) were admitted to 12 hospitals affiliated with the Iran University of Medical Sciences from March 1^st, 2020 to June 7^th, 2021, namely the first four COVID-19 Picks in Iran. They were enrolled in this retrospective cohort study by census method and categorized into case and control groups, based on the inclusion of Remdesivir in their treatment protocol. Demographics, clinical outcomes, and pregnancy-related complications of the mothers and the neonates were compared between the two study groups.

RESULTS

A comparison of 54 mothers in the case and 135 in the control group showed no demographic and clinical characteristics difference. Neonates whose mothers did not receive Remdesivir had a higher rate of positive PCR (10.2%), compared to the Remdesivir group (1.9%) with a relative risk of 0.91 reported for Remdesivir (95% CI: 0.85-0.98, P = 0.04); besides, Remdesivir resulted in fewer neonatal intensive care unit admission rates in mild/moderate COVID-19 group (RR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.105-1.02, P = 0.03). Although neonatal death between the two groups was not statistically significant, from the clinical point seems important; 1(1.9%) in the case vs. 9(7.2%) in the control group. Interestingly LOS (Length of Stay) in the hospital was longer in the case group (median of 7 vs. 3 days; P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The inclusion of Remdesivir in the treatment protocol of pregnant women with COVID-19 may reduce vertical transmission and improve perinatal outcomes, thus being suggested to be considered.

Comparison of the Onset and End of Specific and Major Side Effects in Iranian Teenage Participants Vaccinated With COVID-19 Vaccine: Sinopharm and Soberana

Background

Clinical trials were conducted on children on side effects after vaccination. We tried to assess the frequency and onset of the main symptoms in children who were vaccinated. We aimed to evaluate early and delayed adverse effects after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine among Iranian pediatrics and adolescents in a national survey.

Methods

This cross-sectional study included people <18 years who received the Soberana (PastoCoVac) and Sinopharm vaccines since 2021. The basic information was gender, age, type of vaccine, and reaction after vaccination besides the main events that occurred for them. The required data were collected via a predetermined checklist by trained interviewers through phone calls by their parents or legal guardians. The independent t test and Fisher exact test were used. P values less than 0.05 were considered significant.

Results

A total of 11,042 participants (age range, 10-18 years) consisting of 5374 boys (47.8%) and 5768 girls (52.2%) were studied and 88.1% of the children (n = 9727) were vaccinated by Sinopharm and 11.9% (n = 1315) by Soberana. The data of kidney-related side effects had delayed improvement of side effects after the Sinopharm compared with the Soberana vaccines (P = 0.012). Cardiovascular and hematological side effects showed early-onset (P = 0.006) and delayed improvement of side effects (P = 0.002) after the Soberana vaccine compared with the Sinopharm vaccine. Neurological side effects showed delayed improvement of side effects after the Soberana vaccine compared with the Sinopharm vaccine (P = 0.027). Joint-related side effects showed early-onset (P = 0.004) and delayed improvement of side effects (P = 0.023) after the Soberana vaccine compared with the Sinopharm vaccine. Respiratory side effects showed delayed improvement of side effects after the Soberana vaccine compared with the Sinopharm vaccine (P = 0.013), and dermatological side effects showed early-onset (P = 0.050) and delayed improvement of side effects (P = 0.035) after the Soberana vaccine compared with the Sinopharm vaccine. There was not any statistically significant difference regarding gastrointestinal side effects between the 2 vaccines (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The cardiovascular and hematological, joint-related (non-neurologic musculoskeletal) and dermatological side effects after the Soberana vaccine appear earlier and end later compared with the Sinopharm vaccine. Improvement of renal side effects in the Sinopharm vaccine group and improvement of neurological and respiratory side effects in the Soberana vaccine group occurred with delay compared with other vaccines.

Personalized predictions of adverse side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines

Background

Misconceptions about adverse side effects are thought to influence public acceptance of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines negatively. To address such perceived disadvantages of vaccines, a novel machine learning (ML) approach was designed to generate personalized predictions of the most common adverse side effects following injection of six different COVID-19 vaccines based on personal and health-related characteristics.

Methods

Prospective data of adverse side effects following COVID-19 vaccination in 19943 participants from Iran and Switzerland was utilized. Six vaccines were studied: The AZD1222, Sputnik V, BBIBP-CorV, COVAXIN, BNT162b2, and the mRNA-1273 vaccine. The eight side effects were considered as the model output: fever, fatigue, headache, nausea, chills, joint pain, muscle pain, and injection site reactions. The total input parameters for the first and second dose predictions were 46 and 54 features, respectively, including age, gender, lifestyle variables, and medical history. The performances of multiple ML models were compared using Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC-AUC).

Results

The total number of people receiving the first dose of the AZD1222, Sputnik V, BBIBP-CorV, COVAXIN, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273 were 6022, 7290, 5279, 802, 277, and 273, respectively. For the second dose, the numbers were 2851, 5587, 3841, 599, 242 and 228. The Logistic Regression model for predicting different side effects of the first dose achieved ROC-AUCs of 0.620-0.686, 0.685-0.716, 0.632-0.727, 0.527-0.598, 0.548-0.655, 0.545-0.712 for the AZD1222, Sputnik V, BBIBP-CorV, COVAXIN, BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 vaccines, respectively. The second dose models yielded ROC-AUCs of 0.777-0.867, 0.795-0.848, 0.857-0.906, 0.788-0.875, 0.683-0.850, and 0.486-0.680, respectively.

Conclusions

Using a large cohort of recipients vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines, a novel and personalized strategy was established to predict the occurrence of the most common adverse side effects with high accuracy. This technique can serve as a tool to inform COVID-19 vaccine selection and generate personalized factsheets to curb concerns about adverse side effects.

Risk Communication in Early Containment of COVID-19 Pandemic in Iran: Implementation of the World Health Organization Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (WHO-SPRP)

Background: Health systems must have functional and efficient preparedness and response plans to manage pandemics. Moreover, it is essential to adjust to changing circumstances and the dynamic character of pandemics. The World Health Organization (WHO) introduced the Strategic Preparedness and Response Plan (SPRP), emphasizing 144 measures across 10 pillars, helping governments prepare and respond to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to determine how the Iranian health system, based on the WHO-SPRP, addresses strategic preparedness and response plan in the COVID-19 pandemic at the national level. Methods: The WHO-SPRP was adopted and translated into Persian by 2 bilingual natives. The chief of the health office requested that authorized officers complete the SPRP. Then, a meeting was held by officers of related units involved in COVID-19 management to address the SPRP at regional and national levels. Results: Our findings suggest that up to August 2020, effective risk communication and community engagement were not fully established. Our response plan lacked evidence-based information and educational messaging to consistently shape public opinion and impression of a respiratory pandemic. Conclusion: The Iranian health care system and services were almost able to address the SPRP and perform the major indicators that the WHO had proposed. However, special attention should be paid to risk communication and community engagement to empower informed decision-making by individuals and communities.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Air Emergency Versus Ground Emergency Medical Services Regarding the Patient's Transportation and Treatment in Selected Hospital

Background: The prehospital emergency system is the first initiator of medical care as an alternative to hospitals and health care services that helps patients and injured people in critical situations and accidents. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of air ambulance versus ground ambulance regarding the patient's transportation and treatment. Methods: In this cost-effectiveness analysis study, 300 patients who were transferred to the Shohadaye HaftomTir hospital by air ambulance and 300 patients transferred by ground ambulance during the study period were selected in 2021-2022. This study examined the costs from the society's perspective. After drawing the decision tree model in TreeAge software, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated; and to evaluate the strength of the analysis results, one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses were done on all costs and consequence parameters. Results: The effectiveness rate in the ground ambulance group and in the air ambulance group was 0.42591 and 0.5566, respectively, and the total cost of transportation and treatment by ambulance in these patients was $412.88 and for patients transported and treated by air ambulance was $11898.05. Therefore, air ambulance costs more and is more effective than ground ambulance, and the amount of incremental cost and effectiveness of air ambulance compared with ground ambulance was $11485.17 and 0.130773 units, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the 2 strategies was 87825.28, and the cost-effectiveness threshold was $7200. To determine the strength of the study results, one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses were done and the results of the cost-effectiveness analysis was not changed. Conclusion: Our study showed that ground ambulance is more cost-effective than air ambulance and the most important reason is that the total cost of air ambulance is 26 times more than ground ambulance, however, it is more effective than ground ambulance.

The distance between new and previous incisions does not affect skin necrosis in total knee arthroplasty: a parallel-randomized controlled clinical trial

Background

To avoid skin necrosis, an 8 cm distance between the new and previous incision is recommended in patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA). It was hypothesized that making a new incision less than 8 cm of the prior scar does not increase the risk of skin complications, and the new incision can be made anywhere, regardless of the distance from the previous scar. This study investigated how making a new incision, irrespective of the previous scars, affects skin necrosis.

Methods

In this parallel, randomized clinical trial, by simple randomization method using a random number table, 50 patients with single longitudinal knee scars were randomly assigned to two groups with a 1:1 ratio and 25 participants in each group. Patients with a minimum age of 60 and a single longitudinal previous scar on the knee were included. The exclusion criteria were diabetes mellitus, hypertension, morbid obesity, smoking, vascular disorders, cardiopulmonary disorders, immune deficiencies, dementia, and taking steroids and angiogenesis inhibitors. TKA was performed through an anterior midline incision, regardless of the location of the previous scar in the intervention group. TKA was performed with a new incision at least 8 cm distant from the old incision in the control group. Skin necrosis and scar-related complications were evaluated on the first and second days and first, second, and fourth weeks after the surgery. Knee function was assessed using the Knee Society Score (KSS) six months after the surgery.

Results

The baseline characteristics of the groups did not differ significantly. The average distance from the previous scar was 4.1 ± 3.2 cm in the intervention group and 10.2 ± 2.1 cm in the control group. Only one patient in the control group developed skin necrosis (P-value = 0.31). Other wound-related complications were not observed in both groups. The mean KSS was 83.2 ± 10.2 and 82.9 ± 11.1 in the intervention and control groups, respectively (P-value = 0.33).

Conclusions

It is possible that in TKA patients, the new incision near a previous scar does not increase the risk of skin necrosis and other complications.

Pediatric and Adolescent COVID-19 Vaccination Side Effects: A Retrospective Cohort Study of Iranian Teenage group in 2021

To determine the safety and efficacy profile of teenager COVID‐19 vaccination. In this retrospective cohort study, contact numbers of parents of teenagers under 18 years of age referred to a teenager vaccination centers in Tehran‐Iran to receive the corona vaccine were collected, and the following information was obtained via the phones: demographic information, type of vaccine, and the number of doses received, as well as additional information like complications and required treatments. Eleven thousand forty‐two subjects aged 10−18 years, mean age 14.55 ± 1.83 year  including 5374 boys and 5768 girls were investigated. 88.1% received the Sinopharm and 11.9% the Soberana vaccine. General side effects, including fatigue, fever and chills, injection site pain and dizziness, and so forth happened in 2978 cases; 7421 children presented with at least one general or organ‐specific side effect following vaccination, including potentially critical side effects, such as vascular injuries, respiratory complication, and so forth. 0.1% of the subject needed hospital admission. The breakthrough infection happened in 200 individuals. Our study shows that Sinopharm and Soberana (PastoCoVac) COVID‐19 vaccines are generally safe with no serious side effects in less than 18 years old. COVID‐19 infection and reinfection can occur after vaccination, but the incidence is actually tolerable and significantly lower than in the unvaccinated group.

Only 0.1% of the children with side effects related to vaccination need hospital admission.

Regarding the ABO group, +A and then +O were the dominant blood group that developed COVID‐19.

In total, 412 children developed major side effects (observed in 3.73% of all population and account for 5.5% of all observed side effects).

In total, 3289 children developed general side effects following vaccination (0.2978 i.e., 2978 cases per 10 000 vaccinated children or about 30% of vaccinated children).

There were 7421 children (67%) with at least one general or organ‐specific side effect following vaccination, including dermatological, gastrointestinal, respiratory, joint‐related, neurological, cardiovascular, and renal side effects following vaccination.

All children who developed COVID‐19 after vaccination had a previous history of COVID‐19.

There is no difference regarding the development of COVID‐19 after vaccination between the two vaccines of Sinopharm and Soberana.

Only 1.8% of the children developed COVID‐19 after vaccination (Sinopharm [1.9%] and Soberana [1.5%]).

After receiving both doses, the chance of developing COVID‐19 was the lowest.

Regarding general side effects, fatigue, pain, and dizziness were higher in the Sinopharm group compared to the Soberana group.

Soberana shows early side effects compared to Sinopharm.

Linear mixed model analysis to evaluate correlations between remdesivir adverse effects with age and gender of patients with mild Covid‐19 pneumonia

We aimed to assess longitudinal changes in clinical indexes of corona disease 2019 (Covid‐19) patients with mild pulmonary infection during 5 days of remdesivir therapy and determine the effect of age and gender on remdesivir adverse effects (AE). Patients' clinical data including inflammatory markers, liver and renal function tests, and heart rate (HR) were extracted from medical records. Linear mixed model (LMM) was used to analyze longitudinal changes in patients' clinical indexes. Gender and age were inserted in LMM as covariates to find their correlation with AE and clinical indexes. Of 84 patients, 35 patients met our criteria for the study. There were significant increases in mean levels of white blood cell (WBC; p = 0.005), alanine aminotransferase (ALT; p = 0.001), aspartate aminotransferase (p = 0.001), blood urea nitrogen (BUN; p = 0.001), and creatinine (p = 0.006), whereas mean levels of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (p = 0.005), C‐reactive protein (p = 0.001), alkaline phosphatase (p = 0.001), and potassium (p = 0.003) decreased significantly. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.001) and HR (p = 0.001) showed a notable decline over the course of treatment. LMM analysis showed that mean changes in WBC (β = 0.94, p = 0.029), creatinine (β = 0.12, p = 0.020), and HR (β = 6.47, p = 0.008) were greater in males than in females. Also, age of patients had a significant effect on the mean changes of WBC (β = −0.02, p = 0.023), sodium (β = −0.06, p = 0.010), BUN (β = 0.23, p = 0.001), and HR (β = −0.29, p = 0.001). Despite no renal and liver dysfunction, Covid‐19 patients with mild pulmonary infection may develop some remdesivir AE and attributed side effects might be affected by gender and age of patients.

Inferior Hip Dislocation in a 60-Year-Old Man; a Case Report

Inferior hip dislocation or luxatio erecta femoris is among the rarest hip dislocations, which has been described in limited studies. The patients usually present with their hip in flexion, abduction, and external rotation. Hip dislocation is an orthopedic emergency, and a reduction needs to be performed promptly to avoid devastating complications such as avascular necrosis. Here, we present a rare case of inferior hip dislocation in a 60-year-old man following a car-motorcycle collision. The patient presented to the emergency department with left hip flexion, abduction, external rotation, and inability to move his leg due to pain. Closed reduction under procedural sedation was attempted in the emergency department once, which was unsuccessful. The patient was then taken to the operating room for another attempt of closed reduction under general anesthesia. The patient was discharged after two days with pin traction and double crutches. After two weeks, the pin was removed, and full weight-bearing was permitted. After 12 weeks, the patient had mild pain with unusual activity and slight limping; however, imaging revealed no signs of any complications.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Mortality for COVID-19 Patients on Day 0 in the ICU

Rationale: Given the expanding number of COVID-19 cases and the potential for new waves of infection, there is an urgent need for early prediction of the severity of the disease in intensive care unit (ICU) patients to optimize treatment strategies. Objectives: Early prediction of mortality using machine learning based on typical laboratory results and clinical data registered on the day of ICU admission. Methods: We retrospectively studied 797 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in Iran and the United Kingdom (U.K.). To find parameters with the highest predictive values, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Pearson chi-squared tests were used. Several machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest (RF), logistic regression, gradient boosting classifier, support vector machine classifier, and artificial neural network algorithms were utilized to build classification models. The impact of each marker on the RF model predictions was studied by implementing the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation technique (LIME-SP). Results: Among 66 documented parameters, 15 factors with the highest predictive values were identified as follows: gender, age, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine, international normalized ratio (INR), albumin, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), white blood cell count, segmented neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, red cell distribution width (RDW), and mean cell hemoglobin (MCH) along with a history of neurological, cardiovascular, and respiratory disorders. Our RF model can predict patient outcomes with a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 75%. The performance of the models was confirmed by blindly testing the models in an external dataset. Conclusions: Using two independent patient datasets, we designed a machine-learning-based model that could predict the risk of mortality from severe COVID-19 with high accuracy. The most decisive variables in our model were increased levels of BUN, lowered albumin levels, increased creatinine, INR, and RDW, along with gender and age. Considering the importance of early triage decisions, this model can be a useful tool in COVID-19 ICU decision-making.

Agreement between Prehospital and Final Diagnosis in Patients with Acute Allergic Reactions: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: Acute allergic reactions are usually first encountered in the prehospital setting and account for about 0.3% to 0.8% of prehospital runs in different countries. Right, and rapid recognition and treatment are necessary to decrease mortality and morbidity, especially in severe critical cases. This study evaluates the accuracy of prehospital care providers’ diagnosis in patients with acute allergic reactions in comparison with final (discharge) diagnosis as the gold standard. Methods: Patients who were transported to 2 urban referral hospitals between 2008 and 2014 under the dispatch code of “acute allergic reaction” were included in the study, retrospectively. Demographic data, etiology of an allergic reaction, clinical presentations, vital signs stability, and need for epinephrine injection were evaluated. The prehospital care providers’ diagnosis (documented on-call report) was compared with the final diagnosis (documented on discharge summary form). Results: A total of 300 patients were included in the study. In 55 (18.3%) cases the prehospital care providers’ and final diagnoses were different. Diagnoses were similar in 245 (81.6%) patients. Kappa coefficient was calculated as 0.621which shows a moderate-to-substantial agreement between prehospital and final diagnoses. Fifteen patients (5%) were discharged from the hospital with a diagnosis of anaphylaxis and only 4 cases (26.6%) were diagnosed in the prehospital setting. Conclusion: Although the overall agreement between prehospital and final diagnosis of acute allergic reactions calculated in this study was good, the accuracy of diagnosing the anaphylaxis (as the most critical allergic reaction with a potential fatality) was less than optimal.

A Scoping Review of Different Methods of Assessing the Impact of New Medical Technologies at Early Stages of Development

Background: Investing in the R & D sector of new medical technologies is associated with the risk of being rejected by paying organizations because of the lack of value-for-money. The purpose of this study is to investigate the different methods of evaluating the impacts of emerging medical technologies.

Methods: Using scoping review method, we analyzed studies that investigated methods for assessing the impacts of emerging medical technologies on development. To find these studies, the Cochran Library, ISI Web of Knowledge, Embase, Ebsco and Pubmed databases from 2000 to 2018 were searched. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed using the STROBE Checklist. Two reviewers independently selected the qualified studies. Charting and collating the data were used based on the method proposed by Arksey and O'Malley.

Results: Overall, 38 studies met the inclusion criteria. Sixteen methods were identified and put in five distinct categories: forecasting, Pro-HTA, Early-HTA, priority setting, and HHS were found to measure the impact of emerging technologies. The quality of these studies was acceptable. Few studies were conducted on emerging pharmaceutical technologies, and they were mostly on emerging medical devices. The Early HTA methods were often used to measure the effects of pharmaceutical technologies and medical devices technologies. The Pro-HTA method used dynamic modeling to examine the impact of medical technologies on a broad range of dimensions, while the HTA and Early-HTA methods used cost-effectiveness techniques throughout the development process. The HHS method used a multivariate decision-making technique.

Conclusion: Different methods were used to investigate the impacts of emerging medical technologies. Chronologically Pro-HTA methods are new ways for investigating emerging medical technologies beyond clinical and economic impacts. Assessing the feasibility of implementing Pro-HTA in real environments deserves further research.

Symptom Prediction and Mortality Risk Calculation for COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Background: Early prediction of symptoms and mortality risks for COVID-19 patients would improve healthcare outcomes, allow for the appropriate distribution of healthcare resources, reduce healthcare costs, aid in vaccine prioritization and self-isolation strategies, and thus reduce the prevalence of the disease. Such publicly accessible prediction models are lacking, however. Methods: Based on a comprehensive evaluation of existing machine learning (ML) methods, we created two models based solely on the age, gender, and medical histories of 23,749 hospital-confirmed COVID-19 patients from February to September 2020: a symptom prediction model (SPM) and a mortality prediction model (MPM). The SPM predicts 12 symptom groups for each patient: respiratory distress, consciousness disorders, chest pain, paresis or paralysis, cough, fever or chill, gastrointestinal symptoms, sore throat, headache, vertigo, loss of smell or taste, and muscular pain or fatigue. The MPM predicts the death of COVID-19-positive individuals. Results: The SPM yielded ROC-AUCs of 0.53-0.78 for symptoms. The most accurate prediction was for consciousness disorders at a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 70%. 2,440 deaths were observed in the study population. MPM had a ROC-AUC of 0.79 and could predict mortality with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 70%. About 90% of deaths occurred in the top 21 percentile of risk groups. To allow patients and clinicians to use these models easily, we created a freely accessible online interface at www.aicovid.net. Conclusion: The ML models predict COVID-19-related symptoms and mortality using information that is readily available to patients as well as clinicians. Thus, both can rapidly estimate the severity of the disease, allowing shared and better healthcare decisions with regard to hospitalization, self-isolation strategy, and COVID-19 vaccine prioritization in the coming months.

Medical therapy versus percutaneous coronary intervention in ischemic heart disease: A cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: Ischemic heart disease is categorized into two acute and chronic groups, and its treatments include revascularization and medical therapy. The aim of this study is to evaluate the economic burden of medical therapy compared to percutaneous coronary intervention in ischemic heart disease.

Methods: This study has been done in two steps. The first was a systematic review and meta-analysis to measure the effectiveness of two interventions and the second step was a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of society. The data analysis included a meta-analysis and the Markov cohort simulation. RewMan v5 and tree age software were utilized. Uncertainties related to the model parameters were evaluated using one-way and two-way sensitivity analyses.

Results: Regarding the effectiveness of interventions, the odd ratio of the quality of life in the medical therapy group (CI: 0.76-1.10) was 0.91 times the PCI group (p=0.34). This rate for mortality in medical therapy (CI: 0.52-9.68) was 2.23 times more than the PCI group; this result was not significant (p=0.02). In the cost-effectiveness analysis, the cost-effectiveness threshold was $ 16,482; ICER in increasing the QoL and reduction in the mortality rate was $ 25320.11 and $ 562.6691, respectively. Regarding the sensitivity analysis, the model was not sensitive in changing parameters in a specific domain.

Conclusion: According to this study, PCI is more cost-effective than medical therapy in the reduction of mortality rate and in the field of increasing quality of life. MT strategy is more cost-effective than the PCI. This study considers controversies regarding the most appropriate treatment for patients with ischemic heart disease that is helpful for health policymakers, cardiologists and health managers.

Concordance of triage performed with emergency severity index in the emergency departments of Rasoul Akram and Haft Tir hospitals

Introduction: Triage is prioritizing patients by disease severity in the shortest possible time. Proper triage increases the quality of patient care services, increases patient’s satisfaction, decreases patient waiting time, decreases mortality, and enhances emergency department efficiency. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the concordance of triage performed by nurses with ESI standard, at Rasoul Akram and Haft Tir hospitals, which are the most important educational centers of Iran University of Medical Sciences. Patients and Methods: This is a cross-sectional design study done in 2019. The study population is patients referred to Rasoul Akram and Haft Tir hospitals. A sample of 800 patients was selected. In this study, we determined how triage level were determined and compared with triaging by emergency medicine assistant. Data were analyzed by SPSS 23. Results: Out of 800 samples, the highest triage level was related to level three (79.1%) and levels two, four and one were in the next levels. 13.5% of the cases were not properly triaged according to the ESI standard and the adaptation coefficient (kappa) between the triage level specified in the patient file with the emergency severity index (ESI) triage level between physician and nurse was 58%, which was a significant difference (P<0.001). The relationship between correct triage leveling and patients’ complaints was significant (P<0.001). Conclusion: Nurses triage education about appropriate triage and ESI tool should be one of the most urgent topics and priorities of the studied hospitals. Over triage causes resources wasted and under triage may harm the patient’s health.

The effect of interprofessional education on healthcare providers' intentions to engage in interprofessional shared decision-making: Perspectives from the theory of planned behaviour

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

The present study aimed to investigate the effects of interprofessional education on healthcare providers' intentions to engage in an interprofessional shared decision-making (IP-SDM) process at emergency department and exploring the affecting factors on their intentions.

METHODS

We conducted the study through a sequential explanatory mixed method (quantitative-qualitative) design. All ED residents and nurses from two university hospitals were invited and assigned to the intervention and control groups. The intervention group was exposed to case-based learning sessions conducted by applying interprofessional strategies. The intentions of the participants engaged in IP-SDM were assessed before and 2 weeks after the intervention by a questionnaire designed based on the theory of planned behaviour. The questionnaire scores were compared between the intervention and control groups using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Partial eta-squared (η² ) was used for effect size calculations in ANCOVA. Subsequently, to explore the affecting factors in engagement in IP-SDM, qualitative data were collected through semi-structured individual interviews. The inductive content analysis approach by Elo and Kyngas was employed to analyze the qualitative data.

RESULTS

Out of 117 potentially eligible healthcare professionals, 113 completed the study in the intervention (n = 55) and control (n = 58) groups. The results showed that the difference between the mean scores of the learners in the intervention (1.41 ± 0.27) and control (0.80 ± 0.52) groups was statistically significant (P-value = .00001). The main effect of the intervention and a large educational effect size for the intervention were found to be statistically significant F (1, 11) = 180.54, P-value = .00001, η² = 0.62. The qualitative data analysis showed two main categories of "team-based facilitators" and "contextual challenges" as the main affecting factors in the engagement of participant in IP-SDM.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggested that applying interprofessional education strategies could improve the learners' intention to engage in IP-SDM. Moreover, the results showed that the interprofessional collaboration among team members, adherence to the team-based care principles, and administrative support at different levels could be the influential factors the intentions of the participants to engage in IP-SDM.

The effect of prehospital telecardiology on the mortality and morbidity of ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

The sooner the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) is performed, the better prognosis is expected in patients with acute myocardial infarction. The objective is to evaluate the effect of prehospital triage based on electrocardiogram (ECG) and telecardiology on the mortality and morbidity of ST-segment elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients undergoing PPCI.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted based on the data extracted from the hospital information system (HIS) of one general hospital, which had the capability of performing PPCI 24 h a day, 7 days a week. All patients with STEMI who undergone PPCI during 1 year, transferred by emergency medical service (EMS) and their data were registered in the HIS were eligible. Besides the baseline characteristics, first medical contact (FMC)-to-balloon time was recorded. Morbidity based on predischarge left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and mortality based on Global Registry of Acute Cardiac Events (GRACE) score were also recorded. Patients who were referred to the hospital by EMS with prehospital ECG and telecardiology were compared with those without prehospital ECG.

RESULTS

Totally, 298 patients with STEMI were enrolled, of whom 183 patients (61.4%) had prehospital ECG (telecardiology), and 115 patients (38.6%) had not. The means of predischarge LVEF of the patients in the first and the second groups were 40.7 ± 10.4 and 40.6 ± 11.2, respectively (P = 0.946). The mean of the probability of 6-month mortality based on GRACE score in the first group was significantly less than that of the second group (P = 0.004). Analyses of multivariable ordinal logistic regression showed that 6-month mortality severity risk in the second group was 1.5 times more than the first group (95% confidence interval 0.8-2.6), although this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.199).

CONCLUSIONS

It is likely that prehospital telecardiology, with shortening FMC to balloon time result in reducing probability 6-month mortality in STEMI patients who undergone PPCI. However, the process of telecardiology had no effect on predischarge LVEF in the current study.

Accuracy of the pre-hospital triage tools (qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP) in predicting probable COVID-19 patients' outcomes transferred by Emergency Medical Services

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the efficiency of pre-hospital triage tools including the qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP in determining the prognosis of probable COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

In this diagnostic accuracy study, all probable COVID-19 patients older than 16-year-old who were transferred to the hospital by the Tehran Emergency Medical Services (EMS) during the first month of the pandemic, entered to the study. The scores of qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP were calculated using data gathered while providing pre-hospital care. The primary outcome was death; and the secondary outcomes were ICU admission, length of stay in the ICU, and length of hospital stay.

RESULTS

The data of 557 individuals with the mean age of 56.93±18.31 were analyzed of whom 67.5% were males. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP for ICU admission was 0.553, 0.557, and 0.551, respectively. The AUC of qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP for death was 0.596, 0.566, and 0.604, respectively. The best obtained cut-off point for qSOFA was a score >0 (the sensitivity and specificity were 25.0 and 85.68%, respectively), for NEWS was a score >2 (the sensitivity and specificity were 83.61 and 32.67%, respectively), and for PRESEP was a score >1 (the sensitivity and specificity were 54.10 and 55.56%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Based on the findings of the current study, it is likely that the available pre-hospital triage tools (qSOFA, NEWS, and PRESEP) do not have proper efficacy to predict death, ICU admission, and disease severity of COVID-19 patients.

Validity, reliability and acceptability of Professionalism Mini-Evaluation Exercise (P-MEX) for emergency medicine residency training

Professionalism is a core competency in the medical profession. In this paper, we aimed to confirm the validity, reliability and acceptability of the Professionalism Mini-Evaluation Exercise (P-MEX) instrument for the emergency medicine (EM) residency program. Twenty-two EM attending physicians completed 383 P-MEX forms (the Persian version) for 90 EM residents. Construct validity was assessed via structural equation modeling (SEM). The reliability coefficient was estimated by the generalizability theory, and acceptability was assessed using two researcher-made questionnaires to evaluate the perspectives of residents and assessors. There was a consensus among the participants regarding the content of P-MEX. According to the results of SEM, the first implementation of the original model was associated with a moderate fit and high item loadings. The model modified with correlated error variances for two pairs of items showed an appropriate fit. The reliability of P-MEX was 0.81 for 14 occasions. The perception survey indicated high acceptability for P-MEX from the viewpoint of the residents and increasing satisfaction with P-MEX among the assessors over time.

According to the results of the research, P-MEX is a reliable, valid, and acceptable instrument for assessing professionalism in EM residents.

Application of data mining techniques for predicting residents' performance on pre-board examinations: A case study

CONTEXT

Predicting residents' academic performance is critical for medical educational institutions to plan strategies for improving their achievement.

AIMS

This study aimed to predict the performance of residents on preboard examinations based on the results of in-training examinations (ITE) using various educational data mining (DM) techniques.

SETTINGS AND DESIGN

This research was a descriptive cross-sectional pilot study conducted at Iran University of Medical Sciences, Iran.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

A sample of 841 residents in six specialties participating in the ITEs between 2004 and 2014 was selected through convenience sampling. Data were collected from the residency training database using a researcher-made checklist.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The analysis of variance was performed to compare mean scores between specialties, and multiple-regression was conducted to examine the relationship between the independent variables (ITEs scores in postgraduate 1^st year [PGY1] to PG 3^rd year [PGY3], sex, and type of specialty training) and the dependent variable (scores of postgraduate 4^th year called preboard). Next, three DM algorithms, including multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network (MLP-ANN), support vector machine, and linear regression were utilized to build the prediction models of preboard examination scores. The performance of models was analyzed based on the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). In the final step, the MLP-ANN was employed to find the association rules. Data analysis was performed in SPSS 22 and RapidMiner 7.1.001.

RESULTS

The ITE scores on the PGY-2 and PGY-3 and the type of specialty training were the predictors of scores on the preboard examination (R ² = 0.129, P < 0.01). The algorithm with the overall best results in terms of measuring error values was MLP-ANN with the condition of ten-fold cross-validation (RMSE = 0.325, MAE = 0.212). Finally, MLP-ANN was utilized to find the efficient rules.

CONCLUSIONS

According to the results of the study, MLP-ANN was recognized to be useful in the evaluation of student performance on the ITEs. It is suggested that medical, educational databases be enhanced to benefit from the potential of DM approach in the identification of residents at risk, allowing instructors to offer constructive advice in a timely manner.

The Role of Pre-Hospital Telecardiology in Reducing the Coronary Reperfusion Time; a Brief Report

INTRODUCTION

Telecardiology is defined as using telecommunication for remote treatment of cardiac patients. This study aimed to assess the role of pre-hospital triage via telecardiology on coronary reperfusion time of patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted from September, 2015 to January, 2018 in six academic referral hospitals, Tehran, Iran. Studied patients were divided into two groups of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) following telecardiology or PCI following emergency department (ED) diagnosis of STEMI and time to reperfusion was compared between them.

RESULTS

1205 patients with the mean age of 58.99 ± 12.33 (19-95) years entered the study (82.7% male). 841 (69.8%) cases were transferred directly to the Cath-Lab following telecardiology and 364 (30.2%) cases were first admitted to the ED. There was no significant difference between the groups regarding mean age (p = 0.082) and gender (p = 0.882) of participants. Symptom-to-device interval time in patients who underwent PCI following telecardiology was significantly lower (p < 0.001); however, the difference was not significant in the first medical contact (FMC)-to-device interval time (p = 0.268).

CONCLUSIONS

It is likely that the use of telecardiology in pre-hospital triage plays an important role in reducing time to PCI for patients with STEMI.