Prediction of breast cancer risk for adolescents and young adults with Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

While female survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have an increased risk of breast cancer (BC), no BC risk prediction model is available. We developed such models incorporating mean radiation dose to the breast or breast quadrant-specific radiation doses.

METHODS

Relative risks and age-specific incidence for BC and competing events (mortality or other subsequent cancer) were estimated from 1194 Dutch five-year HL survivors, treated at ages 11-40 during 1965-2000. Predictors were doses to ten breast segments or mean breast radiation dose, BC family history, year of and age at HL diagnosis, ages at menopause and first live birth. Models were independently validated using U.S. Childhood Cancer Survivor Study cohort participants.

RESULTS

Predicted absolute BC risks 25 years after HL diagnosis ranged from 1.0% for survivors diagnosed at ages 20-24, with <10 Gy mean breast radiation dose and menopausal 5 years after HL diagnosis, to 22.0% for survivors 25-29 years at diagnosis, ≥25 Gy mean breast dose, and no menopause within 5 years. In external validation, the observed/expected BC case ratio was 1.19 (95% confidence interval 0.97 to 1.47) for the breast segment-specific doses model, and 1.29 (1.05 to 1.60) for the mean breast dose model. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were 0.68 (0.63 to 0.74) and 0.68 (0.62 to 0.73), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Breast segment-specific or mean breast radiation dose with personal and clinical characteristics predicted absolute BC risk in HL survivors with moderate discrimination but good calibration, rendering the models useful for clinical decision-making.

Impact of risk-based therapy on late morbidity and mortality in neuroblastoma survivors: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

BACKGROUND

Early efforts at risk-adapted therapy for neuroblastoma are predicted to result in differential late effects; the magnitude of these differences has not been well described.

METHODS

Late mortality, subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs), and severe/life-threatening chronic health conditions (CHCs), graded according to CTCAE v4.03, were assessed among 5-year Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) survivors of neuroblastoma diagnosed 1987-1999. Using age, stage at diagnosis, and treatment, survivors were classified into risk groups (low [n = 425]; intermediate [n = 252]; high [n = 245]). Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of SMNs were compared with matched population controls. Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals for CHC compared with 1029 CCSS siblings.

RESULTS

Among survivors (49.8% male; median age = 21 years, range = 7-42; median follow-up = 19.3 years, range = 5-29.9), 80% with low-risk disease were treated with surgery alone, whereas 79.1% with high-risk disease received surgery, radiation, chemotherapy ± autologous stem cell transplant (ASCT). All-cause mortality was elevated across risk groups (SMRhigh = 27.7 [21.4-35.8]; SMRintermediate = 3.3 [1.7-6.5]; SMRlow = 2.8 [1.7-4.8]). SMN risk was increased among high- and intermediate-risk survivors (SIRhigh = 28.0 [18.5-42.3]; SIRintermediate = 3.7 [1.2-11.3]) but did not differ from the US population for survivors of low-risk disease. Compared with siblings, survivors had an increased risk of grade 3-5 CHCs, particularly among those with high-risk disease (HRhigh = 16.1 [11.2-23.2]; HRintermediate = 6.3 [3.8-10.5]; HRlow = 1.8 [1.1-3.1]).

CONCLUSION

Survivors of high-risk disease treated in the early days of risk stratification carry a markedly elevated burden of late recurrence, SMN, and organ-related multimorbidity, whereas survivors of low/intermediate-risk disease have a modest risk of late adverse outcomes.

Trends in Radiation Dose to the Contralateral Breast During Breast Cancer Radiation Therapy

Over 4 million survivors of breast cancer live in the United States, 35% of whom were treated before 2009. Approximately half of patients with breast cancer receive radiation therapy, which exposes the untreated contralateral breast to radiation and increases the risk of a subsequent contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Radiation oncology has strived to reduce unwanted radiation dose, but it is unknown whether a corresponding decline in actual dose received to the untreated contralateral breast has occurred. The purpose of this study was to evaluate trends in unwanted contralateral breast radiation dose to inform risk assessment of second primary cancer in the contralateral breast for long-term survivors of breast cancer. Individually estimated radiation absorbed doses to the four quadrants and areola central area of the contralateral breast were estimated for 2,132 women treated with radiation therapy for local/regional breast cancers at age <55 years diagnosed between 1985 and 2008. The two inner quadrant doses and two outer quadrant doses were averaged. Trends in dose to each of the three areas of the contralateral breast were evaluated in multivariable models. The population impact of reducing contralateral breast dose on the incidence of radiation-associated CBC was assessed by estimating population attributable risk fraction (PAR) in a multivariable model. The median dose to the inner quadrants of the contralateral breast was 1.70 Gy; to the areola, 1.20 Gy; and to the outer quadrants, 0.72 Gy. Ninety-two percent of patients received ≥1 Gy to the inner quadrants. For each calendar year of diagnosis, dose declined significantly for each location, most rapidly for the inner quadrants (0.04 Gy/year). Declines in dose were similar across subgroups defined by age at diagnosis and body mass index. The PAR for CBC due to radiation exposure >1 Gy for women <40 years of age was 17%. Radiation dose-reduction measures have reduced dose to the contralateral breast during breast radiation therapy. Reducing the dose to the contralateral breast to <1 Gy could prevent an estimated 17% of subsequent radiation-associated CBCs for women treated under 40 years of age. These dose estimates inform CBC surveillance for the growing number of breast cancer survivors who received radiation therapy as young women in recent decades. Continued reductions in dose to the contralateral breast could further reduce the incidence of radiation-associated CBC.

Cardiac Substructure Radiation Dose and Risk of Late Cardiac Disease in Survivors of Childhood Cancer: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE

Radiation-associated cardiac disease is a major cause of morbidity/mortality among childhood cancer survivors. Radiation dose-response relationships for cardiac substructures and cardiac diseases remain unestablished.

METHODS

Using the 25,481 5-year survivors of childhood cancer treated from 1970 to 1999 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we evaluated coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), valvular disease (VD), and arrhythmia. We reconstructed radiation doses for each survivor to the coronary arteries, chambers, valves, and whole heart. Excess relative rate (ERR) models and piecewise exponential models evaluated dose-response relationships.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence 35 years from diagnosis was 3.9% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.3) for CAD, 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.2) for HF, 1.2% (95% CI, 1.0 to 1.5) for VD, and 1.4% (95% CI, 1.1 to 1.6) for arrhythmia. A total of 12,288 survivors (48.2%) were exposed to radiotherapy. Quadratic ERR models improved fit compared with linear ERR models for the dose-response relationship between mean whole heart and CAD, HF, and arrhythmia, suggesting a potential threshold dose; however, such departure from linearity was not observed for most cardiac substructure end point dose-response relationships. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the whole heart did not increase the risk of any cardiac diseases. Mean doses of 5-9.9 Gy to the right coronary artery (rate ratio [RR], 2.6 [95% CI, 1.6 to 4.1]) and left ventricle (RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 1.3 to 3.7]) increased risk of CAD, and to the tricuspid valve (RR, 5.5 [95% CI, 2.0 to 15.1]) and right ventricle (RR, 8.4 [95% CI, 3.7 to 19.0]) increased risk of VD.

CONCLUSION

Among children with cancer, there may be no threshold dose below which radiation to the cardiac substructures does not increase the risk of cardiac diseases. This emphasizes their importance in modern treatment planning.

Use of Intramuscular Ephedrine Sulfate During Kidney Transplantation

Hypotension during kidney transplantation can be common. Vasopressor use during these procedures is often avoided, with a fear of decreasing renal perfusion in the transplanted kidney. However, adequate perfusion for the rest of the body is also necessary, and given that these patients often have underlying hypertension or other comorbid conditions, an appropriate mean arterial pressure (MAP) has to be maintained. Intramuscular injections of ephedrine have been studied in the anesthesiology literature in a variety of case types, and it is seen as a safe and effective method to boost MAP. We present a case series of three patients who underwent renal transplantation and who received an intramuscular injection of ephedrine for hypotension control. The medication worked well for increasing blood pressures without apparent side effects. All three patients were followed for more than one year, and all patients had good graft function at the end of that time period. This series shows that while further research is necessary in this arena, intramuscular ephedrine may have a place in the management of persistent hypotension in the operating room during kidney transplantation.

Late Health Outcomes Among Survivors of Wilms Tumor Diagnosed Over Three Decades: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE

To evaluate long-term morbidity and mortality among unilateral, nonsyndromic Wilms tumor (WT) survivors according to conventional treatment regimens.

METHODS

Cumulative incidence of late mortality (≥ 5 years from diagnosis) and chronic health conditions (CHCs) were evaluated in WT survivors from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Outcomes were evaluated by treatment, including nephrectomy combined with vincristine and actinomycin D (VA), VA + doxorubicin + abdominal radiotherapy (VAD + ART), VAD + ART + whole lung radiotherapy, or receipt of ≥ 4 chemotherapy agents.

RESULTS

Among 2,008 unilateral WT survivors, 142 deaths occurred (standardized mortality ratio, 2.9, 95% CI, 2.5 to 3.5; 35-year cumulative incidence of death, 7.8%, 95% CI, 6.3 to 9.2). The 35-year cumulative incidence of any grade 3-5 CHC was 34.1% (95% CI, 30.7 to 37.5; rate ratio [RR] compared with siblings 3.0, 95% CI, 2.6 to 3.5). Survivors treated with VA alone had comparable risk for all-cause late mortality relative to the general population (standardized mortality ratio, 1.0; 95% CI, 0.5 to 1.7) and modestly increased risk for grade 3-5 CHCs compared with siblings (RR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), but remained at increased risk for intestinal obstruction (RR, 9.4; 95% CI, 3.9 to 22.2) and kidney failure (RR, 11.9; 95% CI, 4.2 to 33.6). Magnitudes of risk for grade 3-5 CHCs, including intestinal obstruction, kidney failure, premature ovarian insufficiency, and heart failure, increased by treatment group intensity.

CONCLUSION

With approximately 40% of patients with newly diagnosed WT currently treated with VA alone, the burden of late mortality/morbidity in future decades is projected to be lower than that for survivors from earlier eras. Nevertheless, the risk of late effects such as intestinal obstruction and kidney failure was elevated across all treatment groups, and there was a dose-dependent increase in risk for all grade 3-5 CHCs by treatment group intensity.

Long-Term Morbidity and Mortality Among Survivors of Neuroblastoma Diagnosed During Infancy: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PURPOSE

To describe the risk of late mortality, subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs), and chronic health conditions (CHCs) in survivors of neuroblastoma diagnosed in infancy by treatment era and exposures.

METHODS

Among 5-year survivors of neuroblastoma in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study diagnosed age < 1 year between 1970 and 1999, we examined the cumulative incidence of late (> 5 years from diagnosis) mortality, SMN, and CHCs (grades 2-5 and 3-5). Multivariable Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs by decade and treatment (surgery-alone v chemotherapy with or without surgery [C ± S] v radiation with or without chemotherapy ± surgery [R ± C ± S]) among survivors and between survivors and 5,051 siblings.

RESULTS

Among 1,397 eligible survivors, the 25-year cumulative incidence of late mortality was 2.1% (95% CI, 1.3 to 3.9) with no difference by treatment era. Among 990 participants who completed a baseline survey, fewer survivors received radiation in more recent eras (51.2% 1970s, 20.4% 1980s, and 10.1% 1990s; P < .001). Risk of SMN was elevated only among individuals treated with radiation-containing regimens compared with surgery alone (HR[C ± S], 3.2 [95% CI, 0.9 to 11.6]; HR[R ± C ± S], 5.7 [95% CI, 1.2 to 28.1]). In adjusted models, there was a 50% reduction in risk of grade 3-5 CHCs in the 1990s versus 1970s (HR, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3 to 0.9]; P = .01); individuals treated with radiation had a 3.6-fold risk for grade 3-5 CHCs (95% CI, 2.1 to 6.2) versus those treated with surgery alone. When compared with siblings, risk of grade 3-5 CHCs for survivors was lowest in the most recent era (HR[1970s], 4.7 [95% CI, 3.4 to 6.5]; HR[1980s], 4.6 [95% CI, 3.3 to 6.4]; HR[1990s], 2.5 [95% CI, 1.7 to 3.9]).

CONCLUSION

Neuroblastoma survivors treated during infancy have a relatively low absolute burden of late mortality and SMN. Encouragingly, risk of CHCs has declined in more recent eras with reduced exposure to radiation therapy.

Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of Children's Oncology Group Breast Cancer Screening Guidelines for Chest-Irradiated Hodgkin Lymphoma Survivors

PURPOSE

To evaluate the outcomes and cost-effectiveness of the Children's Oncology Group Guideline recommendation for breast cancer (BC) screening using mammography (MAM) and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in female chest-irradiated childhood Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT), increasingly replacing MAM in practice, was also examined.

METHODS

Life years (LYs), quality-adjusted LYs (QALYs), BC mortality, health care costs, and false-positive screen frequencies of undergoing annual MAM, DBT, MRI, MAM + MRI, and DBT + MRI from age 25 to 74 years were estimated by microsimulation. BC risks and non-BC mortality were estimated from female 5-year survivors of HL in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the US population. Test performance of MAM and MRI was synthesized from HL studies, and that of DBT from the general population. Costs (2017 US dollars [USD]) and utility weights were obtained from the medical literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated.

RESULTS

With 100% screening adherence, annual BC screening extended LYs by 0.34-0.46 years over no screening. If the willingness-to-pay threshold to gain a quality-adjusted LY was ICER < $100,000 USD, annual MAM at age 25-74 years was the only cost-effective strategy. When nonadherence was taken into consideration, only annual MAM at age 30-74 years (ICER = $56,972 USD) was cost-effective. Supplementing annual MAM with MRI costing $545 USD was not cost-effective under either adherence condition. If MRI costs were reduced to $300 USD, adding MRI to annual MAM at age 30-74 years could become more cost-effective, particularly in the reduced adherence condition (ICER = $133,682 USD).

CONCLUSION

Annual BC screening using MAM at age 30-74 years is effective and cost-effective in female chest-irradiated HL survivors. Although annual adjunct MRI is not cost-effective at $545 USD cost, it could become cost-effective as MRI cost is reduced, a plausible scenario with the emergent use of abbreviated MRI.

Development and validation of a population-based anatomical colorectal model for radiation dosimetry in late effects studies of survivors of childhood cancer

PURPOSE

The purposes of this study were to develop and integrate a colorectal model that incorporates anatomical variations of pediatric patients into the age-scalable MD Anderson Late Effects (MDA-LE) computational phantom, and validate the model for pediatric radiation therapy (RT) dose reconstructions.

METHODS

Colorectal contours were manually derived from whole-body non-contrast computed tomography (CT) scans of 114 pediatric patients (age range: 2.1-21.6 years, 74 males, 40 females). One contour was used for an anatomical template, 103 for training and 10 for testing. Training contours were used to create a colorectal principal component analysis (PCA)-based statistical shape model (SSM) to extract the population's dominant deformations. The SSM was integrated into the MDA-LE phantom. Geometric accuracy was assessed between patient-specific and SSM contours using several overlap metrics. Two alternative colorectal shapes were generated using the first 17 dominant modes of the PCA-based SSM. Dosimetric accuracy was assessed by comparing colorectal doses from test patients' CT-based RT plans (ground truth) with reconstructed doses for the mean and two alternative models in age-matched MDA-LE phantoms.

RESULTS

When using all 103 PCA modes, the mean (min-max) Dice similarity coefficient, distance-to-agreement and Hausdorff distance between the patient-specific and reconstructed contours for the test patients were 0.89 (0.85-0.91), 2.1 mm (1.7-3.0), and 8.6 mm (5.7-14.3), respectively. The average percent difference between reconstructed and ground truth mean and maximum colorectal doses for the mean (alternative 1, 2) model were 6.3% (8.1%, 6.1%) and 4.4% (4.3%, 4.7%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed, validated and integrated a colorectal PCA-based SSM into the MDA-LE phantom and demonstrated its dosimetric performance for accurate pediatric RT dose reconstruction.

Association of Changes in Cancer Therapy Over 3 Decades With Risk of Subsequent Breast Cancer Among Female Childhood Cancer Survivors: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS)

Importance

Breast cancer is the most common invasive subsequent malignant disease in childhood cancer survivors, though limited data exist on changes in breast cancer rates as primary cancer treatments have evolved.

Objective

To quantify the association between temporal changes in cancer treatment over 3 decades and subsequent breast cancer risk.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Retrospective cohort study of 5-year cancer survivors diagnosed when younger than 21 years between 1970 and 1999, with follow-up through December 5, 2020.

Exposures

Radiation and chemotherapy dose changes over time.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Breast cancer cumulative incidence rates and age-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared across treatment decades (1970-1999). Piecewise exponential models estimated invasive breast cancer and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) risk and associations with treatment exposures, adjusted for age at childhood cancer diagnosis and attained age.

Results

Among 11 550 female survivors (median age, 34.2 years; range 5.6-66.8 years), 489 developed 583 breast cancers: 427 invasive, 156 DCIS. Cumulative incidence was 8.1% (95% CI, 7.3%-9.0%) by age 45 years. An increased breast cancer risk (SIR, 6.6; 95% CI, 6.1-7.2) was observed for survivors compared with the age-sex-calendar-year-matched general population. Changes in therapy by decade included reduced rates of chest (34% in the 1970s, 22% in the 1980s, and 17% in the 1990s) and pelvic radiotherapy (26%, 17%, and 13% respectively) and increased rates of anthracycline chemotherapy exposures (30%, 51%, and 64%, respectively). Adjusting for age and age at diagnosis, the invasive breast cancer rate decreased 18% every 5 years of primary cancer diagnosis era (rate ratio [RR], 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.90). When accounting for chest radiotherapy exposure, the decline attenuated to an 11% decrease every 5 years (RR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81-0.99). When additionally adjusted for anthracycline dose and pelvic radiotherapy, the decline every 5 years increased to 14% (RR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96). Although SIRs of DCIS generally increased over time, there were no statistically significant changes in incidence.

Conclusions and Relevance

Invasive breast cancer rates in childhood cancer survivors have declined with time, especially in those younger than 40 years. This appears largely associated with the reduced use of chest radiation therapy, but was tempered by concurrent changes in other therapies.

Genome architecture used to supplement species delineation in two cryptic marine ciliates

The purpose of this study is to determine which taxonomic methods can elucidate clear and quantifiable differences between two cryptic ciliate species, and to test the utility of genome architecture as a new diagnostic character in the discrimination of otherwise indistinguishable taxa. Two cryptic tintinnid ciliates, Schmidingerella arcuata and Schmidingerella meunieri, are compared via traditional taxonomic characters including lorica morphometrics, ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene barcodes and ecophysiological traits. In addition, single-cell 'omics analyses (single-cell transcriptomics and genomics) are used to elucidate and compare patterns of micronuclear genome architecture between the congeners. The results include a highly similar lorica that is larger in S. meunieri, a 0%-0.5% difference in rRNA gene barcodes, two different and nine indistinguishable growth responses among 11 prey treatments, and distinct patterns of micronuclear genomic architecture for genes detected in both ciliates. Together, these results indicate that while minor differences exist between S. arcuata and S. meunieri in common indices of taxonomic identification (i.e., lorica morphology, DNA barcode sequences and ecophysiology), differences exist in their genomic architecture, which suggests potential genetic incompatibility. Different patterns of micronuclear architecture in genes shared by both isolates also enable the design of species-specific primers, which are used in this study as unique "architectural barcodes" to demonstrate the co-occurrence of both ciliates in samples collected from a NW Atlantic estuary. These results support the utility of genomic architecture as a tool in species delineation, especially in ciliates that are cryptic or otherwise difficult to differentiate using traditional methods of identification.

Minimally Invasive Esophagectomy Is Associated with Superior Survival Compared to Open Surgery

INTRODUCTION

Minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE) has not been associated with a long-term survival advantage compared to open esophagectomy (OE). We investigated survival differences between MIE, including laparoscopic and robotic, and OE.

METHODS

Patients undergoing esophagectomy from 2010 to 2014 with T_1-4N_0-3M₀, adenocarcinoma or squamous cell histology, in middle or lower esophagus were queried from the National Cancer Database and stratified into groups based on their surgical procedure: robotic, laparoscopic, or OE. Propensity matching (1:1) was done between robotic and laparoscopic to produce an MIE group. The MIE group was matched to OE yielding a 1:1:2 matching of robotic:laparoscopic:OE. Postoperative outcomes and survival (Kaplan-Meier) were compared between groups.

RESULTS

Prior to matching, 7,163 patients met inclusion criteria and a greater portion underwent OE (67.7%) than MIE (laparoscopic 24.9% and robotic 7.4%). Matching yielded similar groups (robotic = 527, laparoscopic = 527, and OE =1054). Compared to OE, MIE patients had a significantly greater number of nodes sampled and trended toward increased R0 resections (96.1% vs 94.3%, P = .053). OE was associated with a longer median postoperative stay (10 vs 9 days, P = .001). Mortality at 30 and 90 days was similar. However, postoperative survival for MIE was significantly greater than OE (P < .001). No survival difference existed between robotic and laparoscopic (P = .723).

CONCLUSIONS

MIE is associated with increased number of nodes examined and a shorter postoperative length of stay. After propensity matching, patients undergoing MIE had better long but not short-term survival than OE. This benefit seems to be independent of the use of robotic technology.

Body region-specific 3D age-scaling functions for scaling whole-body computed tomography anatomy for pediatric late effects studies

Purpose.Radiation epidemiology studies of childhood cancer survivors treated in the pre-computed tomography (CT) era reconstruct the patients' treatment fields on computational phantoms. For such studies, the phantoms are commonly scaled to age at the time of radiotherapy treatment because age is the generally available anthropometric parameter. Several reference size phantoms are used in such studies, but reference size phantoms are only available at discrete ages (e.g.: newborn, 1, 5, 10, 15, and Adult). When such phantoms are used for RT dose reconstructions, the nearest discrete-aged phantom is selected to represent a survivor of a specific age. In this work, we (1) conducted a feasibility study to scale reference size phantoms at discrete ages to various other ages, and (2) evaluated the dosimetric impact of using exact age-scaled phantoms as opposed to nearest age-matched phantoms at discrete ages.Methods.We have adopted the University of Florida/National Cancer Institute (UF/NCI) computational phantom library for our studies. For the feasibility study, eight male and female reference size UF/NCI phantoms (5, 10, 15, and 35 years) were downscaled to fourteen different ages which included next nearest available lower discrete ages (1, 5, 10 and 15 years) and the median ages at the time of RT for Wilms' tumor (3.9 years), craniospinal (8.0 years), and all survivors (9.1 years old) in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) expansion cohort treated with RT. The downscaling was performed using our in-house age scaling functions (ASFs). To geometrically validate the scaling, Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), mean distance to agreement (MDA), and Euclidean distance (ED) were calculated between the scaled and ground-truth discrete-aged phantom (unscaled UF/NCI) for whole-body, brain, heart, liver, pancreas, and kidneys. Additionally, heights of the scaled phantoms were compared with ground-truth phantoms' height, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 50th percentile height. Scaled organ masses were compared with ground-truth organ masses. For the dosimetric assessment, one reference size phantom and seventeen body-size dependent 5-year-old phantoms (9 male and 8 female) of varying body mass indices (BMI) were downscaled to 3.9-year-old dimensions for two different radiation dose studies. For the first study, we simulated a 6 MV photon right-sided flank field RT plan on a reference size 5-year-old and 3.9-year-old (both of healthy BMI), keeping the field size the same in both cases. Percent of volume receiving dose ≥15 Gy (V₁₅) and the mean dose were calculated for the pancreas, liver, and stomach. For the second study, the same treatment plan, but with patient anatomy-dependent field sizes, was simulated on seventeen body-size dependent 5- and 3.9-year-old phantoms with varying BMIs. V₁₅, mean dose, and minimum dose received by 1% of the volume (D₁), and by 95% of the volume (D₉₅) were calculated for pancreas, liver, stomach, left kidney (contralateral), right kidney, right and left colons, gallbladder, thoracic vertebrae, and lumbar vertebrae. A non-parametric Wilcoxon rank-sum test was performed to determine if the dose to organs of exact age-scaled and nearest age-matched phantoms were significantly different (p < 0.05).Results.In the feasibility study, the best DSCs were obtained for the brain (median: 0.86) and whole-body (median: 0.91) while kidneys (median: 0.58) and pancreas (median: 0.32) showed poorer agreement. In the case of MDA and ED, whole-body, brain, and kidneys showed tighter distribution and lower median values as compared to other organs. For height comparison, the overall agreement was within 2.8% (3.9 cm) and 3.0% (3.2 cm) of ground-truth UF/NCI and CDC reported 50th percentile heights, respectively. For mass comparison, the maximum percent and absolute differences between the scaled and ground-truth organ masses were within 31.3% (29.8 g) and 211.8 g (16.4%), respectively (across all ages). In the first dosimetric study, absolute difference up to 6% and 1.3 Gy was found for V₁₅and mean dose, respectively. In the second dosimetric study, V₁₅and mean dose were significantly different (p < 0.05) for all studied organs except the fully in-beam organs. D₁and D₉₅were not significantly different for most organs (p > 0.05).Conclusion.We have successfully evaluated our ASFs by scaling UF/NCI computational phantoms from one age to another age, which demonstrates the feasibility of scaling any CT-based anatomy. We have found that dose to organs of exact age-scaled and nearest aged-matched phantoms are significantly different (p < 0.05) which indicates that using the exact age-scaled phantoms for retrospective dosimetric studies is a better approach.

White matter tracts that overlap with the thalamus and the putamen are protected against multiple sclerosis pathology

BACKGROUND

The thalamus and the putamen are highly connected hubs implicated in multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology. It remains unclear if white matter (WM) tracts, which pass through them, have a different susceptibility to MS pathology, and if so, if their impact on disability predominates over that exerted by disease in other WM tracts. We hypothesized that WM tracts connected to and passing through these hubs (subsequently termed hub+ tracts) would be more susceptible to MS-related pathology than tracts that do not pass through them (hub- tracts) due to retrograde and anterograde distant degeneration. Thus, we compared the lesion load and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) derived metrics between hub+ and hub- tracts and assessed the relationship between these MRI metrics and those of physical impairment.

METHODS

Eighteen patients (mean age of 45.5 years, 12 females) had 3 Tesla MRI consisting of T1-weighted and T2-weighted Fluid Attenuated Inversion Recovery (FLAIR), and NODDI from which the orientation dispersion index (ODI), neurite density index (NDI), and isotropic volume fraction (IVF) were derived. Forty-nine WM tracts, i.e., 12 hub+ and 37 hub- tracts, were segmented out. Exploratory analyses of the differences in lesion burden, whole tract and normal appearing WM (NAWM) NODDI metrics were carried out between the two types of tracts using a Mann-Whitney U test. Correlations with physical impairment, quantified using the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) and timed 25-foot walk (T25FW) test were assessed using Spearman correlation analyses.

RESULTS

Hub- tracts had larger T1- (p<0.001) and T2-lesion (p<0.001) volumes; lower ODI (p<0.001), NDI (p<0.001) and higher IVF (p = 0.020) in comparison to hub+ tracts. Measures of tissue injury in hub+ tracts correlated with those of clinical disability, though less strongly than in hub- tracts.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to our hypothesis, our exploratory pilot study results suggest that WM tracts that overlap with the thalamus and the putamen have a lower degree of lesional and non-lesional tissue injury, suggesting a protective role of the hubs against MS pathology or a higher degree of vulnerability of those not passing through hub stations. We also show a weaker association between disability impairment and hub+ pathology, compared to that in hub- tracts. Our findings point to a potential role of disease location in relation to hubs as guidance for treatment personalization in MS.

Lung Cancer as a Subsequent Malignant Neoplasm in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer-related death in adults, has not been well studied as a subsequent malignant neoplasm (SMN) in childhood cancer survivors. We assessed prevalence, risk factors, and outcomes for lung SMN in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort.

METHODS

Among 25,654 5-year survivors diagnosed with childhood cancer (<21 years), lung cancer was self-reported and confirmed by pathology record review. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) and cumulative incidences were calculated, comparing survivors to the general population, and hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression for diagnosis and treatment exposures.

RESULTS

Forty-two survivors developed a lung SMN [SIR, 4.0; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.9-5.4] with a cumulative incidence of 0.16% at 30 years from diagnosis (95% CI, 0.09%-0.23%). In a treatment model, chest radiation doses of 10-30 Gy (HR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.05-11.0), >30-40 Gy (HR, 4.6; 95% CI, 1.5-14.3), and >40 Gy (HR, 9.1; 95% CI, 3.1-27.0) were associated with lung SMN, with a monotone dose trend (P trend < 0.001). Survivors of Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR, 9.3; 95% CI, 6.2-13.4) and bone cancer (SIR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.8-9.1) were at greatest risk for lung SMN.

CONCLUSIONS

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for lung cancer compared with the general population. Greatest risk was observed among survivors who received chest radiotherapy or with primary diagnoses of Hodgkin lymphoma or bone cancer.

IMPACT

This study describes the largest number of observed lung cancers in childhood cancer survivors and elucidates need for further study in this aging and growing population.

Phase II study of ceralasertib (AZD6738) in combination with durvalumab in patients with advanced/metastatic melanoma who have failed prior anti-PD-1 therapy

BACKGROUND

Modulating the DNA damage response and repair (DDR) pathways is a promising strategy for boosting cancer immunotherapy. Ceralasertib (AZD6738) is an oral inhibitor of the serine/threonine protein kinase ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related protein, which is crucial for DDR.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This phase II trial evaluated ceralasertib plus durvalumab for the treatment of patients with metastatic melanoma who had failed anti-programmed cell death protein 1 therapy.

RESULTS

Among the 30 patients, we observed an overall response rate of 31.0% and a disease control rate of 63.3%. Responses were evident across patients with acral, mucosal, and cutaneous melanoma. The median duration of response was 8.8 months (range, 3.8-11.7 months). The median progression-free survival was 7.1 months (95% confidence interval, 3.6-10.6 months), and the median overall survival was 14.2 months (95% confidence interval, 9.3-19.1 months). Common adverse events were largely hematologic and manageable with dose interruptions and reductions. Exploratory biomarker analysis suggested that tumors with an immune-enriched microenvironment or alterations in the DDR pathway were more likely to respond to the study treatment.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that ceralasertib in combination with durvalumab has promising antitumor activity among patients with metastatic melanoma who have failed anti-programmed cell death protein 1 therapy, and constitute a population with unmet needs.

Coronary Artery Disease in Young Women After Radiation Therapy for Breast Cancer: The WECARE Study

Background

Radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer increases risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Women treated for left- vs right-sided breast cancer receive greater heart radiation exposure, which may further increase this risk. The risk of radiation-associated CAD specifically among younger breast cancer survivors is not well defined.

Objectives

The purpose of this study was to report CAD risk among participants in the Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology Study.

Methods

A total of 1,583 women who were <55 years of age when diagnosed with breast cancer between 1985 and 2008 completed a cardiovascular health questionnaire. Risk of radiation-associated CAD was evaluated by comparing women treated with left-sided RT with women treated with right-sided RT using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Effect modification by treatment and cardiovascular risk factors was examined.

Results

In total, 517 women who did not receive RT and 94 women who had a pre-existing cardiovascular disease diagnosis were excluded, leaving 972 women eligible for analysis. Their median follow-up time was 14 years (range 1-29 years). The 27.5-year cumulative incidences of CAD for women receiving left- vs right-sided RT were 10.5% and 5.8%, respectively (P = 0.010). The corresponding HR of CAD for left- vs right-sided RT in the multivariable Cox model was 2.5 (95% CI: 1.3-4.7). There was no statistically significant effect modification by any factor evaluated.

Conclusions

Young women treated with RT for left-sided breast cancer had over twice the risk of CAD compared with women treated with RT for right-sided breast cancer. Laterality of RT is independently associated with an increased risk of CAD and should be considered in survivorship care of younger breast cancer patients.

Late-onset kidney failure in survivors of childhood cancer: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

BACKGROUND

The incidence of and risk factors for late-onset kidney failure among survivors over the very long term remains understudied.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 25,530 childhood cancer survivors (median follow-up 22.3 years, interquartile range 17.4-28.8) diagnosed between 1970 and 1999, and 5045 siblings from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study were assessed for self-reported late-onset kidney failure, defined as dialysis, renal transplantation, or death attributable to kidney disease. Piecewise exponential models evaluated associations between risk factors and the rate of late-onset kidney failure.

RESULTS

A total of 206 survivors and 10 siblings developed late-onset kidney failure, a 35-year cumulative incidence of 1.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4-1.9) and 0.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.1-0.4), respectively, corresponding to an adjusted rate ratio (RR) of 4.9 (95% CI = 2.6-9.2). High kidney dose from radiotherapy (≥15Gy; RR = 4.0, 95% CI = 2.1-7.4), exposure to high-dose anthracycline (≥250 mg/m2; RR = 1.6, 95% CI = 1.0-2.6) or any ifosfamide chemotherapy (RR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.2-5.7), and nephrectomy (RR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.0-3.4) were independently associated with elevated risk for late-onset kidney failure among survivors. Survivors who developed hypertension, particularly in the context of prior nephrectomy (RR = 14.4, 95% CI = 7.1-29.4 hypertension with prior nephrectomy; RR = 5.9, 95% CI = 3.3-10.5 hypertension without prior nephrectomy), or diabetes (RR = 2.2, 95%CI = 1.2-4.2) were also at elevated risk for late-onset kidney failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk for late-onset kidney failure. Kidney dose from radiotherapy ≥15 Gy, high-dose anthracycline, any ifosfamide, and nephrectomy were associated with increased risk of late-onset kidney failure among survivors. Successful diagnosis and management of modifiable risk factors such as diabetes and hypertension may mitigate the risk for late-onset kidney failure. The association of late-onset kidney failure with anthracycline chemotherapy represents a novel finding that warrants further study.

Radiation therapy related cardiac disease risk in childhood cancer survivors: Updated dosimetry analysis from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We previously evaluated late cardiac disease in long-term survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) based on heart radiation therapy (RT) doses estimated from an age-scaled phantom with a simple atlas-based heart model (H_Atlas). We enhanced our phantom with a high-resolution CT-based anatomically realistic and validated age-scalable cardiac model (H_Hybrid). We aimed to evaluate how this update would impact our prior estimates of RT-related late cardiac disease risk in the CCSS cohort.

METHODS

We evaluated 24,214 survivors from the CCSS diagnosed from 1970 to 1999. RT fields were reconstructed on an age-scaled phantom with H_Hybrid and mean heart dose (D_m), percent volume receiving ≥ 20 Gy (V₂₀) and ≥ 5 Gy with V₂₀ = 0 ( [Formula: see text] ) were calculated. We reevaluated cumulative incidences and adjusted relative rates of grade 3-5 Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events outcomes for any cardiac disease, coronary artery disease (CAD), and heart failure (HF) in association with D_m, V₂₀, and [Formula: see text] (as categorical variables). Dose-response relationships were evaluated using piecewise-exponential models, adjusting for attained age, sex, cancer diagnosis age, race/ethnicity, time-dependent smoking history, diagnosis year, and chemotherapy exposure and doses. For relative rates, D_m was also considered as a continuous variable.

RESULTS

Consistent with previous findings with H_Atlas, reevaluation using H_Hybrid dosimetry found that, D_m ≥ 10 Gy, V₂₀ ≥ 0.1%, and [Formula: see text]  ≥ 50% were all associated with increased cumulative incidences and relative rates for any cardiac disease, CAD, and HF. While updated risk estimates were consistent with previous estimates overall without statistically significant changes, there were some important and significant (P < 0.05) increases in risk with updated dosimetry for D_m in the category of 20 to 29.9 Gy and V₂₀ in the category of 30% to 79.9%. When changes in the linear dose-response relationship for D_m were assessed, the slopes of the dose response were steeper (P < 0.001) with updated dosimetry. Changes were primarily observed among individuals with chest-directed RT with prescribed doses ≥ 20 Gy.

CONCLUSION

These findings present a methodological advancement in heart RT dosimetry with improved estimates of RT-related late cardiac disease risk. While results are broadly consistent with our prior study, we report that, with updated cardiac dosimetry, risks of cardiac disease are significantly higher in two dose and volume categories and slopes of the Dm-specific RT-response relationships are steeper. These data support the use of contemporary RT to achieve lower heart doses for pediatric patients, particularly those requiring chest-directed RT.

Aortic root replacement with Medtronic Freestyle bioprosthesis: 25-year experience

BACKGROUND

Stentless porcine bioprothesis is a surgical strategy to treat aortic root disease. Use has been limited due to the concern for long-term valve degeneration. This study evaluated the perioperative and late outcomes of patients with aortic root disease requiring root replacement.

METHODS

A total of 409 patients underwent aortic root replacement by a single surgeon using a stentless porcine bioroot between February 1996 and May 2020. The cohort was divided into two groups (age ≤65 and >65 years). Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the data and Kaplan-Meier curves used to evaluate long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients age >65 years were more likely to be female (p = .01), have hypertension (p = .01), require circulatory arrest (p = .01), and have concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (p = .04). Baseline creatinine >1.8 (p = .20), diabetes (p = .06), and ejection fraction (p = .20) were similar between groups. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year survival for patients age ≤65 years were 92%, 87%, and 69%, respectively, significantly better than patients age >65 (88%, 73%, and 43%, respectively) (p < .01, Figure 1). The 1-, 5-, and 10-year freedom from reoperation for patients ≤65 years were 99%, 97%, and 93% versus 99%, 98%, and 96% in patients age >65 years, respectively (p = .24).

CONCLUSION

Patients with aortic root disease can be treated with acceptable perioperative outcomes, long-term survival, and low reoperation rates using a stentless porcine bioprothesis. It should be considered irrespective of age due to its excellent durability and freedom from anti-coagulation requirement.

Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Chest Radiation: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Dutch Hodgkin Late Effects and LATER Cohorts

PURPOSE

Women treated with chest radiation for childhood cancer have one of the highest risks of breast cancer. Models producing personalized breast cancer risk estimates applicable to this population do not exist. We sought to develop and validate a breast cancer risk prediction model for childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation incorporating treatment-related factors, family history, and reproductive factors.

METHODS

Analyses were based on multinational cohorts of female 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed younger than age 21 years and treated with chest radiation. Model derivation was based on 1,120 participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study diagnosed between 1970 and 1986, with median attained age 42 years (range 20-64) and 242 with breast cancer. Model validation included 1,027 participants from three cohorts, with median age 32 years (range 20-66) and 105 with breast cancer.

RESULTS

The model included current age, chest radiation field, whether chest radiation was delivered within 1 year of menarche, anthracycline exposure, age at menopause, and history of a first-degree relative with breast cancer. Ten-year risk estimates ranged from 2% to 23% for 30-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.73) and from 5% to 34% for 40-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.84). The highest risks were among premenopausal women older than age 40 years treated with mantle field radiation within a year of menarche who had a first-degree relative with breast cancer. It showed good calibration with an expected-to-observed ratio of the number of breast cancers of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.16).

CONCLUSION

Breast cancer risk varies among childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation. Accurate risk prediction may aid in refining surveillance, counseling, and preventive strategies in this population.

Late morbidity and mortality among survivors of neuroblastoma treated with contemporary therapy: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

10044

Background: Survival rates for neuroblastoma vary widely based on risk group. Therapies have evolved over the past four decades to de-intensify treatment for individuals with low/intermediate risk disease and intensify therapy for those with high risk disease. Risk stratification is predicted to result in differential outcomes in late morbidity and mortality; the magnitude of these differences has not been well studied. Methods: We evaluated late mortality, subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMN) and chronic health conditions (CHC) graded according to CTCAE v4.03 among 491 5-year CCSS survivors of neuroblastoma diagnosed 1987-1999 at ≥1 year of age. Using age, stage at diagnosis, and treatment, survivors were classified into risk groups (low [n=182]; intermediate [n=70]; high [n=239]). Standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and standardized incidence ratios (SIR) of SMN were calculated using rates from NCHS and SEER, respectively. Cox regression models estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for CHC compared to 1,029 CCSS siblings. Results: Among survivors (48% male; median age 22 years, range 7-42; median follow-up 19 years, range 5-29), 80.4% with low risk disease were treated with surgery alone, while 77.8% with high risk disease received surgery, radiation, chemotherapy ± transplant. The 15-year cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality was 9.2% (CI: 7.1-11.4), with a recurrence-related mortality of 7.3% (CI: 5.3-9.3) and SMN-related mortality of 0.3% (CI: 0-0.7). All-cause mortality was significantly higher in all risk groups: (low, SMR=5.8 [CI: 2.6-13.0]; intermediate, SMR=5.7 [CI: 1.4-23.5]; high, SMR=38.6 [CI: 27.9-53.5]). The risk of SMN was elevated among high risk survivors (SIR=25.1, CI: 16.7-37.6), but did not differ from the US population for survivors of low or intermediate risk disease. Table describes the HR of CHCs (grades 1-5 and 3-5) in survivors, by risk group, as compared with siblings, as well as categories of CHCs for which survivors were at increased risk. Conclusions: Long-term survivors of neuroblastoma have a high risk of late morbidity and mortality; risk is particularly pronounced among survivors of high risk disease. Vigilant lifelong medical surveillance will be required for this relatively young population as they age.[Table: see text]

Low-dose radiation to cardiac substructures and late-onset cardiac disease: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS)

10027

Background: Thoracic radiotherapy (RT) is a risk factor for cardiac disease among survivors of childhood cancer based on studies considering RT doses to the entire heart. Dose to specific cardiac substructures may provide more precise dose-response associations to guide RT planning. We report associations between RT dose to cardiac substructures and risk of specific cardiac outcomes. Methods: We determined the cumulative incidences of CTCAE grade 3 – 5 coronary artery disease (CAD), heart failure (HF), and valvular disease (VD) among 25,481 5-year childhood cancer survivors diagnosed 1970 – 1999 in the CCSS. Median age at diagnosis was 6.1 years (0 – 20 years) and at last follow-up 29.8 years (5.6 – 65.9 years). For the 12,228 individuals receiving RT, fields were reconstructed on an age scaled computational phantom. Mean doses to the entire heart, cardiac chambers, valves, and left main, anterior descending (LAD), circumflex, and right coronary (RCA) arteries were estimated. Adjusted piecewise exponential models (including cumulative anthracycline dose) evaluated associations between mean RT dose to each structure and outcomes. Results: At 30 years from diagnosis, the cumulative incidences of grades 3 – 5 CAD, HF, and VD were 2.3% (95% CI 2.0 – 2.5), 2.6% (95% CI 2.4 – 2.9), and 0.6% (95% CI 0.5 – 0.8) respectively. Low dose RT (mean 5 – 9.9 Gy) to the RCA (relative rate [RR] = 2.6, 95% CI 1.6 – 4.1, p < 0.001), LAD (RR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.1 – 3.3, p = 0.019), and left ventricle (RR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.3 – 3.7, p = 0.002) was associated with increased risk of CAD relative to those not exposed; mean dose of 5 – 9.9 Gy to the entire heart was not (RR = 1.1, 95% CI = 0.8 – 1.6, p = 0.59). Table shows the associated cumulative incidences of CAD for these structures. Mean RT doses of 5 – 9.9 Gy to the aortic valve (RR = 4.6, 95% CI 1.5 – 14.0, p = 0.008) and tricuspid valve (RR = 5.5, 95% CI 2.0 – 15.1, p = 0.001) were associated with risk of VD compared to those with no RT; mean heart dose 5 – 9.9 Gy was not (RR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.2 – 1.3, p = 0.16). No cardiac structure was significantly associated with an increased risk of HF at a mean dose of 5 – 9.9 Gy. Mean RT doses below 5 Gy were not associated with increased risks of CAD, HF, or VD; doses ≥10 Gy to nearly all substructures and the entire heart were. Conclusions: Low dose RT to the coronary arteries and cardiac valves (5 – 9.9 Gy) from RT is associated with increased risk of CAD and VD, respectively. Sensitivity to low dose RT may vary across the heart and doses to specific structures may be more predictive of late cardiac disease than whole heart dose. These data can guide RT planning to prioritize substructures for avoidance.[Table: see text]

Efficacy of clinical breast examination in chest-irradiated female survivors of childhood Hodgkin lymphoma (HL)

10028

Background: Female survivors of childhood HL treated with ≥10 Gy of chest radiation are at high risk for breast cancer (BC). The Children’s Oncology Group (COG) guidelines recommend CBE annually starting at puberty and then semiannually from age 25, plus lifetime annual mammography (MAM) and breast Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) starting 8y after chest radiation or age 25, whichever is later. While imaging-based screening recommendations are largely consistent with US guidelines for women at high BC risk, only the COG guidelines recommend CBE. The benefits of lifetime CBE starting from puberty for life in chest-irradiated HL survivors is unknown. Methods: Life-years (LYs) and lifetime BC mortality risk were estimated from a simulated cohort of 5-million HL survivors using the data from 5y female survivors of HL in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) treated with ≥10 Gy of chest radiation. The simulated cohort underwent annual MAM+MRI from age 25 for life, with and without annual CBE from age 11 (presumed age of puberty) to age 24 and with and without semiannual CBE from age 25 for life with 100% adherence. BC included in-situ and invasive BC. Treatment-related BC incidence and non-BC mortality risks were estimated from the CCSS data. Risks at age <25 were extrapolated from the CCSS estimates while risks beyond age 50 were extrapolated additionally using the US population rates. CBE sensitivity (17.8%, in-situ and invasive BC) and specificity (98%) and MAM+MRI sensitivity (84.2-86.0%, in-situ; 96.7-97.1%, invasive) and specificity (75.3%) were obtained from the medical literature. Results: The CCSS cohort included 1057 female HL survivors. BC (all invasive) developed in three patients at age <25 (ages: 23, 24, 24). In the simulated cohort receiving no screening, lifetime BC risk was 40.8% and BC mortality was 17.5%. HL survivors around age 50 were at a 7.4-fold higher risk of developing BC and a 5.2-fold higher risk of non-BC mortality when compared with the general population. Compared to no annual CBE for ages 11-24y, undergoing annual CBE did not increase gains in LYs or reduce lifetime BC mortality relative to no screening (Table). Among those who survived to age ≥25, undergoing semiannual CBE from age 25 for life compared to no semiannual CBE also resulted in little gain in LYs or reduction in lifetime BC mortality relative to no screening. Conclusions: Lifetime CBE starting at puberty in conjunction with MAM+MRI appears to add little survival benefits compared with no CBE, suggesting that COG guidelines may be revised without adverse effect on long-term outcomes for chest-irradiated female survivors of childhood HL.[Table: see text]