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Stodolak S, Woodhouse LJ, Sprigg N, Bereczki D, Bath PM. Abstract TP70: Incidence of Serious Adverse Events Following Acute Stroke: Data From the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) Trial. Stroke 2017. [DOI: 10.1161/str.48.suppl_1.tp70] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
Reporting of serious adverse events (SAEs) is an essential safety procedure in randomised controlled trials. Risk factors for SAEs post-stroke and the relationship of SAEs with outcome were studied in the ENOS trial.
Methods:
ENOS assessed glyceryl trinitrate (GTN, 5 mg) vs no GTN for 7 days in 4,011 patients with acute stroke and high blood pressure. Information on SAEs was collected up to day 90. SAEs were adjudicated centrally with blinding to treatment assignment.
Results:
SAEs were reported in 1022 (25.5%) patients, 43.8% of whom died. Patients who suffered SAEs were more likely to be older (mean age 74.2 vs. 69.0 years, p<0.001) and have a history of atrial fibrillation (AF) (relative risk [RR] 1.80, p<0.001). Patients with non-oral feeding at baseline were more vulnerable to SAEs (RR 2.14, p<0.001) and fatal SAEs (RR 3.77, p<0.001) as compared with those with oral feeding. Males were at less risk than females to suffer an SAE (RR 0.83, p<0.001), as were smokers (RR 0.73, p<0.001). Smokers also suffered fewer fatal SAEs (RR 0.55, p<0.001). GTN did not increase the incidence of SAEs. The most common type of SAE was pneumonia (6% incidence) with a high risk of death (RR 9.29, p<0.001).
Conclusions:
SAEs are associated with a range of risk factors that should be taken into account in clinical practice. AF and non-oral feeding status were associated with increased, and smoking with reduced, risk of of SAEs. Incidence of pneumonia was a common and life threatening issue amongst patients.
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Bath PM, Woodhouse LJ, Flaherty K, Havard D, England TJ, Sprigg N. Abstract 189: Intensive Versus Guideline Antiplatelet Therapy For Preventing Recurrence In Patients With Acute Ischaemic Stroke Or TIA: Results In Minor Stroke And TIA From The Triple Antiplatelets For Reducing Dependency In Ischaemic Stroke (TARDIS) Trial. Stroke 2017. [DOI: 10.1161/str.48.suppl_1.189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
The risk of recurrence following an ischaemic stroke (IS) or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) is high, especially immediately after the event. Since one antiplatelet agent is more effective than none, and two are are superior to one, even more intensive treatment might be more effective in preventing recurrence.
Methods:
TARDIS was an international prospective randomised open-label blinded-endpoint controlled trial. Patients with acute (<48 hours) non-cardioembolic IS or TIA were randomised to intensive antiplatelet therapy (combined aspirin, clopidogrel and dipyridamole) or guideline antiplatelets (clopidogrel alone, or combined aspirin and dipyridamole) given for one month. The primary outcome was stroke and TIA recurrence, and their severity (based on modified Rankin Scale), at 3 months. Patients or relatives gave written informed (proxy) consent and all sites had research ethics approval. The trial was funded by the British Heart Foundation and NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme.
Results:
The Independent Data Monitoring Committee recommended stopping the trial in March 2016 since a definitive result had been reached. Of 3,096 patients, 2213 (71%) were enrolled with minor stroke (NIHSS <=3) or TIA. At baseline: mean age 69 (SD 10); male 62%; prior stroke 10%; diabetes 18%; index event IS 57%, TIA 43%; severity in IS (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale) 1.8 (1.0); ABCD2 in TIA 5.1 (0.9); onset to randomisation <12 hours 11%, <24 hours 35%.
Summary:
The results will be available for presentation in quarter 4 2016. TARDIS is large enough to influence clinical practice.
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Bath PM, Scutt P, Blackburn DJ, Ankolekar S, Krishnan K, Ballard C, Burns A, Mant J, Passmore P, Pocock S, Reckless J, Sprigg N, Stewart R, Wardlaw JM, Ford GA. Intensive versus Guideline Blood Pressure and Lipid Lowering in Patients with Previous Stroke: Main Results from the Pilot 'Prevention of Decline in Cognition after Stroke Trial' (PODCAST) Randomised Controlled Trial. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0164608. [PMID: 28095412 PMCID: PMC5240987 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164608] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2016] [Accepted: 09/28/2016] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Stroke is associated with the development of cognitive impairment and dementia. We assessed the effect of intensive blood pressure (BP) and/or lipid lowering on cognitive outcomes in patients with recent stroke in a pilot trial. METHODS In a multicentre, partial-factorial trial, patients with recent stroke, absence of dementia, and systolic BP (SBP) 125-170 mmHg were assigned randomly to at least 6 months of intensive (target SBP <125 mmHg) or guideline (target SBP <140 mmHg) BP lowering. The subset of patients with ischaemic stroke and total cholesterol 3.0-8.0 mmol/l were also assigned randomly to intensive (target LDL-cholesterol <1.3 mmol/l) or guideline (target LDL-c <3.0 mmol/l) lipid lowering. The primary outcome was the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R). RESULTS We enrolled 83 patients, mean age 74.0 (6.8) years, and median 4.5 months after stroke. The median follow-up was 24 months (range 1-48). Mean BP was significantly reduced with intensive compared to guideline treatment (difference -10·6/-5·5 mmHg; p<0·01), as was total/LDL-cholesterol with intensive lipid lowering compared to guideline (difference -0·54/-0·44 mmol/l; p<0·01). The ACE-R score during treatment did not differ for either treatment comparison; mean difference for BP lowering -3.6 (95% CI -9.7 to 2.4), and lipid lowering 4.4 (95% CI -2.1 to 10.9). However, intensive lipid lowering therapy was significantly associated with improved scores for ACE-R at 6 months, trail making A, modified Rankin Scale and Euro-Qol Visual Analogue Scale. There was no difference in rates of dementia or serious adverse events for either comparison. CONCLUSION In patients with recent stroke and normal cognition, intensive BP and lipid lowering were feasible and safe, but did not alter cognition over two years. The association between intensive lipid lowering and improved scores for some secondary outcomes suggests further trials are warranted. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN ISRCTN85562386.
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England TJ, Sprigg N, Alasheev AM, Belkin AA, Kumar A, Prasad K, Bath PM. Granulocyte-Colony Stimulating Factor (G-CSF) for stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis. Sci Rep 2016; 6:36567. [PMID: 27845349 PMCID: PMC5109224 DOI: 10.1038/srep36567] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/27/2016] [Accepted: 10/18/2016] [Indexed: 12/11/2022] Open
Abstract
Granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) may enhance recovery from stroke through neuroprotective mechanisms if administered early, or neurorepair if given later. Several small trials suggest administration is safe but effects on efficacy are unclear. We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCT) assessing G-CSF in patients with hyperacute, acute, subacute or chronic stroke, and asked Investigators to share individual patient data on baseline characteristics, stroke severity and type, end-of-trial modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel Index, haematological parameters, serious adverse events and death. Multiple variable analyses were adjusted for age, sex, baseline severity and time-to-treatment. Individual patient data were obtained for 6 of 10 RCTs comprising 196 stroke patients (116 G-CSF, 80 placebo), mean age 67.1 (SD 12.9), 92% ischaemic, median NIHSS 10 (IQR 5–15), randomised 11 days (interquartile range IQR 4–238) post ictus; data from three commercial trials were not shared. G-CSF did not improve mRS (ordinal regression), odds ratio OR 1.12 (95% confidence interval 0.64 to 1.96, p = 0.62). There were more patients with a serious adverse event in the G-CSF group (29.6% versus 7.5%, p = 0.07) with no significant difference in all-cause mortality (G-CSF 11.2%, placebo 7.6%, p = 0.4). Overall, G-CSF did not improve stroke outcome in this individual patient data meta-analysis.
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Dziewas R, Mistry S, Hamdy S, Minnerup J, Van Der Tweel I, Schäbitz W, Bath PM. Design and implementation of Pharyngeal electrical Stimulation for early de-cannulation in TRACheotomized (PHAST-TRAC) stroke patients with neurogenic dysphagia: a prospective randomized single-blinded interventional study. Int J Stroke 2016; 12:430-437. [PMID: 27807279 DOI: 10.1177/1747493016676618] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Rationale Ongoing dysphagia in stroke patients weaned from mechanical ventilation often requires long-term tracheotomy to protect the airway from aspiration. In a recently reported single-centre pilot study, a significantly larger proportion (75%) of tracheotomized dysphagic stroke patients regained sufficient control of airway management allowing tracheotomy tube removal (decannulation) 24-72 h after pharyngeal electrical stimulation (PES) compared to controls who received standard therapy over the same time period (20%). Aim To assess the safety and efficacy of PES in accelerating dysphagia rehabilitation and enabling decannulation of tracheotomized stroke patients. Design International multi-centre prospective randomized controlled single-blind trial in approximately 126 ICU patients (the 90th percentile of the calculated maximum sample size). Study outcomes Primary outcome: proportion of stroke patients considered safe for decannulation 24-72 h after PES compared to control patients who do not receive PES. Key secondary outcomes focus on: dysphagia severity, decannulation rates, decannulation rate after a repeat PES treatment in patients persistently dysphagic after an initial PES treatment, stroke severity, duration of ICU-stay, occurrence of adverse events including pneumonia and need for recannulation over 30 days or until hospital discharge (if earlier). Discussion Dysphagia and related airway complications are reported as one of the main reasons for stroke patients remaining tracheotomized once successfully weaned from ventilation. This study will evaluate if PES can improve airway safety sufficiently enough to allow earlier tracheotomy tube removal.
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Law ZK, Meretoja A, Engelter ST, Christensen H, Muresan EM, Glad SB, Liu L, Bath PM, Sprigg N. Treatment of intracerebral haemorrhage with tranexamic acid - A review of current evidence and ongoing trials. Eur Stroke J 2016; 2:13-22. [PMID: 31008298 DOI: 10.1177/2396987316676610] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/21/2016] [Accepted: 09/29/2016] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
Purpose Haematoma expansion is a devastating complication of intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) with no established treatment. Tranexamic acid had been an effective haemostatic agent in reducing post-operative and traumatic bleeding. We review current evidence examining the efficacy of tranexamic acid in improving clinical outcome after ICH. Method We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL and clinical trial registers for studies using search strategies incorporating the terms 'intracerebral haemorrhage', 'tranexamic acid' and 'antifibrinolytic'. Authors of ongoing clinical trials were contacted for further details. Findings We screened 268 publications and retrieved 17 articles after screening. Unpublished information from three ongoing clinical trials was obtained. We found five completed studies. Of these, two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing intravenous tranexamic acid to placebo (n = 54) reported no significant difference in death or dependency. Three observational studies (n = 281) suggested less haematoma growth with rapid tranexamic acid infusion. There are six ongoing RCTs (n = 3089) with different clinical exclusions, imaging selection criteria (spot sign and haematoma volume), time window for recruitment and dosing of tranexamic acid. Discussion Despite their heterogeneity, the ongoing trials will provide key evidence on the effects of tranexamic acid on ICH. There are uncertainties of whether patients with negative spot sign, large haematoma, intraventricular haemorrhage, or poor Glasgow Coma Scale should be recruited. The time window for optimal effect of haemostatic therapy in ICH is yet to be established. Conclusion Tranexamic acid is a promising haemostatic agent for ICH. We await the results of the trials before definite conclusions can be drawn.
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Kalladka D, Sinden J, Pollock K, Haig C, McLean J, Smith W, McConnachie A, Santosh C, Bath PM, Dunn L, Muir KW. Human neural stem cells in patients with chronic ischaemic stroke (PISCES): a phase 1, first-in-man study. Lancet 2016; 388:787-96. [PMID: 27497862 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)30513-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 279] [Impact Index Per Article: 34.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND CTX0E03 is an immortalised human neural stem-cell line from which a drug product (CTX-DP) was developed for allogeneic therapy. Dose-dependent improvement in sensorimotor function in rats implanted with CTX-DP 4 weeks after middle cerebral artery occlusion stroke prompted investigation of the safety and tolerability of this treatment in stroke patients. METHODS We did an open-label, single-site, dose-escalation study. Men aged 60 years or older with stable disability (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS] score ≥6 and modified Rankin Scale score 2-4) 6-60 months after ischaemic stroke were implanted with single doses of 2 million, 5 million, 10 million, or 20 million cells by stereotactic ipsilateral putamen injection. Clinical and brain imaging data were collected over 2 years. The primary endpoint was safety (adverse events and neurological change). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01151124. FINDINGS 13 men were recruited between September, 2010, and January, 2013, of whom 11 (mean age 69 years, range 60-82) received CTX-DP. Median NIHSS score before implantation was 7 (IQR 6-8) and the mean time from stroke was 29 (SD 14) months. Three men had subcortical infarcts only and seven had right-hemisphere infarcts. No immunological or cell-related adverse events were seen. Other adverse events were related to the procedure or comorbidities. Hyperintensity around the injection tracts on T2-weighted fluid-attenuation inversion recovery MRI was seen in five patients. At 2 years, improvement in NIHSS score ranged from 0 to 5 (median 2) points. INTERPRETATION Single intracerebral doses of CTX-DP up to 20 million cells induced no adverse events and were associated with improved neurological function. Our observations support further investigation of CTX-DP in stroke patients. FUNDING ReNeuron Limited.
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Bath PM. William M. Feinberg Award for Excellence in Clinical Stroke: High Explosive Treatment for Ultra-Acute Stroke: Hype of Hope. Stroke 2016; 47:2423-6. [PMID: 27444258 DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.116.013243] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2016] [Accepted: 06/08/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Bath PM, Appleton JP, Sprigg N. The Insulin Resistance Intervention after Stroke trial: A perspective on future practice and research. Int J Stroke 2016; 11:741-3. [DOI: 10.1177/1747493016660099] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2016] [Accepted: 05/30/2016] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
The prevention of recurrent events after ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack is well established and based on lifestyle changes, antithrombotics, statins, antihypertensives and carotid surgery. The international IRIS trial assessed whether pioglitazone, a glucose-lowering insulin-sensitizing drug, would reduce recurrent vascular events in patients with ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack. After 4.8 years, pioglitazone therapy was associated with reduced vascular events and new diabetes, and an increase in weight, oedema and bone fractures. Pioglitazone may add to the strategies for preventing further events in patients with stroke or transient ischaemic attack.
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Anderson CS, Robinson T, Lindley RI, Arima H, Lavados PM, Lee TH, Broderick JP, Chen X, Chen G, Sharma VK, Kim JS, Thang NH, Cao Y, Parsons MW, Levi C, Huang Y, Olavarría VV, Demchuk AM, Bath PM, Donnan GA, Martins S, Pontes-Neto OM, Silva F, Ricci S, Roffe C, Pandian J, Billot L, Woodward M, Li Q, Wang X, Wang J, Chalmers J. Low-Dose versus Standard-Dose Intravenous Alteplase in Acute Ischemic Stroke. N Engl J Med 2016; 374:2313-23. [PMID: 27161018 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1515510] [Citation(s) in RCA: 290] [Impact Index Per Article: 36.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Thrombolytic therapy for acute ischemic stroke with a lower-than-standard dose of intravenous alteplase may improve recovery along with a reduced risk of intracerebral hemorrhage. METHODS Using a 2-by-2 quasi-factorial open-label design, we randomly assigned 3310 patients who were eligible for thrombolytic therapy (median age, 67 years; 63% Asian) to low-dose intravenous alteplase (0.6 mg per kilogram of body weight) or the standard dose (0.9 mg per kilogram); patients underwent randomization within 4.5 hours after the onset of stroke. The primary objective was to determine whether the low dose would be noninferior to the standard dose with respect to the primary outcome of death or disability at 90 days, which was defined by scores of 2 to 6 on the modified Rankin scale (range, 0 [no symptoms] to 6 [death]). Secondary objectives were to determine whether the low dose would be superior to the standard dose with respect to centrally adjudicated symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage and whether the low dose would be noninferior in an ordinal analysis of modified Rankin scale scores (testing for an improvement in the distribution of scores). The trial included 935 patients who were also randomly assigned to intensive or guideline-recommended blood-pressure control. RESULTS The primary outcome occurred in 855 of 1607 participants (53.2%) in the low-dose group and in 817 of 1599 participants (51.1%) in the standard-dose group (odds ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.95 to 1.25; the upper boundary exceeded the noninferiority margin of 1.14; P=0.51 for noninferiority). Low-dose alteplase was noninferior in the ordinal analysis of modified Rankin scale scores (unadjusted common odds ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.13; P=0.04 for noninferiority). Major symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage occurred in 1.0% of the participants in the low-dose group and in 2.1% of the participants in the standard-dose group (P=0.01); fatal events occurred within 7 days in 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively (P=0.01). Mortality at 90 days did not differ significantly between the two groups (8.5% and 10.3%, respectively; P=0.07). CONCLUSIONS This trial involving predominantly Asian patients with acute ischemic stroke did not show the noninferiority of low-dose alteplase to standard-dose alteplase with respect to death and disability at 90 days. There were significantly fewer symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhages with low-dose alteplase. (Funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and others; ENCHANTED ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01422616.).
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Appleton JP, Sprigg N, Bath PM. Blood pressure management in acute stroke. Stroke Vasc Neurol 2016; 1:72-82. [PMID: 28959467 PMCID: PMC5435190 DOI: 10.1136/svn-2016-000020] [Citation(s) in RCA: 43] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2016] [Revised: 05/20/2016] [Accepted: 05/21/2016] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Blood pressure (BP) is elevated in 75% or more of patients with acute stroke and is associated with poor outcomes. Whether to modulate BP in acute stroke has long been debated. With the loss of normal cerebral autoregulation, theoretical concerns are twofold: high BP can lead to cerebral oedema, haematoma expansion or haemorrhagic transformation; and low BP can lead to increased cerebral infarction or perihaematomal ischaemia. Published evidence from multiple large, high-quality, randomised trials is increasing our understanding of this challenging area, such that BP lowering is recommended in acute intracerebral haemorrhage and is safe in ischaemic stroke. Here we review the evidence for BP modulation in acute stroke, discuss the issues raised and look to on-going and future research to identify patient subgroups who are most likely to benefit.
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Bath PM, Scutt P, Love J, Clavé P, Cohen D, Dziewas R, Iversen HK, Ledl C, Ragab S, Soda H, Warusevitane A, Woisard V, Hamdy S. Pharyngeal Electrical Stimulation for Treatment of Dysphagia in Subacute Stroke: A Randomized Controlled Trial. Stroke 2016; 47:1562-70. [PMID: 27165955 PMCID: PMC4878285 DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.115.012455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 86] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2015] [Accepted: 04/04/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text. Background and Purpose— Dysphagia is common after stroke, associated with increased death and dependency, and treatment options are limited. Pharyngeal electric stimulation (PES) is a novel treatment for poststroke dysphagia that has shown promise in 3 pilot randomized controlled trials. Methods— We randomly assigned 162 patients with a recent ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke and dysphagia, defined as a penetration aspiration score (PAS) of ≥3 on video fluoroscopy, to PES or sham treatment given on 3 consecutive days. The primary outcome was swallowing safety, assessed using the PAS, at 2 weeks. Secondary outcomes included dysphagia severity, function, quality of life, and serious adverse events at 6 and 12 weeks. Results— In randomized patients, the mean age was 74 years, male 58%, ischemic stroke 89%, and PAS 4.8. The mean treatment current was 14.8 (7.9) mA and duration 9.9 (1.2) minutes per session. On the basis of previous data, 45 patients (58.4%) randomized to PES seemed to receive suboptimal stimulation. The PAS at 2 weeks, adjusted for baseline, did not differ between the randomized groups: PES 3.7 (2.0) versus sham 3.6 (1.9), P=0.60. Similarly, the secondary outcomes did not differ, including clinical swallowing and functional outcome. No serious adverse device-related events occurred. Conclusions— In patients with subacute stroke and dysphagia, PES was safe but did not improve dysphagia. Undertreatment of patients receiving PES may have contributed to the neutral result. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.controlled-trials.com. Unique identifier: ISRCTN25681641.
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Scheitz JF, MacIsaac RL, Abdul-Rahim AH, Siegerink B, Bath PM, Endres M, Lees KR, Nolte CH. Statins and risk of poststroke hemorrhagic complications. Neurology 2016; 86:1590-6. [PMID: 27016519 DOI: 10.1212/wnl.0000000000002606] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2015] [Accepted: 12/07/2015] [Indexed: 11/15/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess whether statin treatment before or after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) affects the risk of acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), postacute ICH, and mortality within 90 days. METHODS Data were sought from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive, an international repository of clinical trials data. Using propensity score matching, we retrospectively compared patients with prior statin treatment and newly initiated statin within 3 days after AIS to patients without statin exposure. Outcomes of interest were acute symptomatic ICH (sICH), any acute ICH, postacute ICH, and mortality during follow-up of 3 months. RESULTS A total of 8,535 patients (mean age 70 years, 54% male, median baseline NIH Stroke Scale score 13) were analyzed. After propensity score matching, prior statin use was not strongly associated with sICH (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.33, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83-2.14) or any ICH (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 0.92-1.98). There was no evidence of an interaction between prior statin use and thrombolysis. New initiation of statins was not associated with postacute ICH (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.60, 95% CI 0.70-3.65). There was a signal towards lower 90-day mortality in patients with prior statin use (adjusted HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-1.00) and especially early initiation of statins (adjusted HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.46-0.97). CONCLUSIONS Statin use prior to AIS was not associated with early hemorrhagic complications, irrespective of treatment with thrombolysis. New initiation of statin treatment early after AIS did not affect risk of postacute ICH, but might be associated with reduced mortality.
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Cohen DL, Roffe C, Beavan J, Blackett B, Fairfield CA, Hamdy S, Havard D, McFarlane M, McLauglin C, Randall M, Robson K, Scutt P, Smith C, Smithard D, Sprigg N, Warusevitane A, Watkins C, Woodhouse L, Bath PM. Post-stroke dysphagia: A review and design considerations for future trials. Int J Stroke 2016; 11:399-411. [PMID: 27006423 DOI: 10.1177/1747493016639057] [Citation(s) in RCA: 252] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2015] [Accepted: 12/21/2015] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Post-stroke dysphagia (a difficulty in swallowing after a stroke) is a common and expensive complication of acute stroke and is associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and institutionalization due in part to aspiration, pneumonia, and malnutrition. Although most patients recover swallowing spontaneously, a significant minority still have dysphagia at six months. Although multiple advances have been made in the hyperacute treatment of stroke and secondary prevention, the management of dysphagia post-stroke remains a neglected area of research, and its optimal management, including diagnosis, investigation and treatment, have still to be defined.
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Maysami S, Wong R, Pradillo JM, Denes A, Dhungana H, Malm T, Koistinaho J, Orset C, Rahman M, Rubio M, Schwaninger M, Vivien D, Bath PM, Rothwell NJ, Allan SM. A cross-laboratory preclinical study on the effectiveness of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist in stroke. J Cereb Blood Flow Metab 2016; 36:596-605. [PMID: 26661169 PMCID: PMC4776311 DOI: 10.1177/0271678x15606714] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2015] [Accepted: 07/21/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Stroke represents a global challenge and is a leading cause of permanent disability worldwide. Despite much effort, translation of research findings to clinical benefit has not yet been successful. Failure of neuroprotection trials is considered, in part, due to the low quality of preclinical studies, low level of reproducibility across different laboratories and that stroke co-morbidities have not been fully considered in experimental models. More rigorous testing of new drug candidates in different experimental models of stroke and initiation of preclinical cross-laboratory studies have been suggested as ways to improve translation. However, to our knowledge, no drugs currently in clinical stroke trials have been investigated in preclinical cross-laboratory studies. The cytokine interleukin 1 is a key mediator of neuronal injury, and the naturally occurring interleukin 1 receptor antagonist has been reported as beneficial in experimental studies of stroke. In the present paper, we report on a preclinical cross-laboratory stroke trial designed to investigate the efficacy of interleukin 1 receptor antagonist in different research laboratories across Europe. Our results strongly support the therapeutic potential of interleukin 1 receptor antagonist in experimental stroke and provide further evidence that interleukin 1 receptor antagonist should be evaluated in more extensive clinical stroke trials.
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Gibson CL, Bath PM. Feasibility of progesterone treatment for ischaemic stroke. J Cereb Blood Flow Metab 2016; 36:487-91. [PMID: 26661235 PMCID: PMC4776310 DOI: 10.1177/0271678x15616782] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2015] [Accepted: 07/11/2015] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
Two multi-centre phase III clinical trials examining the protective potential of progesterone following traumatic brain injury have recently failed to demonstrate any improvement in outcome. Thus, it is timely to consider how this impacts on the translational potential of progesterone treatment for ischaemic stroke. A wealth of experimental evidence supports the neuroprotective properties of progesterone, and associated metabolites, following various types of central nervous system injury. In particular, for ischaemic stroke, studies have also begun to reveal possible mechanisms of such neuroprotection. However, the results in traumatic brain injury now question whether further clinical development of progesterone for ischaemic stroke is relevant.
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Krishnan K, Scutt P, Woodhouse L, Adami A, Becker JL, Cala LA, Casado AM, Chen C, Dineen RA, Gommans J, Koumellis P, Christensen H, Collins R, Czlonkowska A, Lees KR, Ntaios G, Ozturk S, Phillips SJ, Sprigg N, Szatmari S, Wardlaw JM, Bath PM. Continuing versus Stopping Prestroke Antihypertensive Therapy in Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Subgroup Analysis of the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke Trial. J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis 2016; 25:1017-1026. [PMID: 26853137 PMCID: PMC4851456 DOI: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2016.01.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2015] [Revised: 12/29/2015] [Accepted: 01/02/2016] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE More than 50% of patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) are taking antihypertensive drugs before ictus. Although antihypertensive therapy should be given long term for secondary prevention, whether to continue or stop such treatment during the acute phase of ICH remains unclear, a question that was addressed in the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial. METHODS ENOS was an international multicenter, prospective, randomized, blinded endpoint trial. Among 629 patients with ICH and systolic blood pressure between 140 and 220 mmHg, 246 patients who were taking antihypertensive drugs were assigned to continue (n = 119) or to stop (n = 127) taking drugs temporarily for 7 days. The primary outcome was the modified Rankin Score at 90 days. Secondary outcomes included death, length of stay in hospital, discharge destination, activities of daily living, mood, cognition, and quality of life. RESULTS Blood pressure level (baseline 171/92 mmHg) fell in both groups but was significantly lower at 7 days in those patients assigned to continue antihypertensive drugs (difference 9.4/3.5 mmHg, P < .01). At 90 days, the primary outcome did not differ between the groups; the adjusted common odds ratio (OR) for worse outcome with continue versus stop drugs was .92 (95% confidence interval, .45-1.89; P = .83). There was no difference between the treatment groups for any secondary outcome measure, or rates of death or serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with acute ICH, immediate continuation of antihypertensive drugs during the first week did not reduce death or major disability in comparison to stopping treatment temporarily.
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Ban L, Sprigg N, Abdul Sultan A, Nelson-Piercy C, Bath PM, Tata LJ. Abstract 140: Incidence of Stroke in and Around Pregnancy: A UK Population-based Cohort Study. Stroke 2016. [DOI: 10.1161/str.47.suppl_1.140] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Introduction:
There are very few population-based studies on the incidence of stroke in women of childbearing age, stratifying by stroke types and pregnancy-related periods.
Methods:
We used an open cohort study design including all women aged 15-49 years from UK linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care records in 1997-2014. The exposure of our study was pregnancy resulting in a live or a stillbirth and associated antenatal and postpartum periods. The outcome of the study was the first ever stroke diagnosis, defined using ICD-10 codes (I60-I64, O22.5 and O87.3) or relevant Read codes, and classified as having ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) or unspecified. We calculated the absolute rates of stroke per 100,000 person-years and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for different exposure periods. We stratified the analysis by maternal age and types of stroke.
Results:
Of 2,047,858 women, we identified 336,957 women with 453,776 deliveries. There were totally 2,526 women with a first incidence of stroke: IS 1,140 (45.1%), SAH 684 (27.1%), ICH 368 (14.6%) and unspecified 334 (13.2%). The overall incidence rate of stroke was 24.9 (95%CI 23.6-26.2) per 100,000 person-years in the non-pregnant period (IS 11.2 [10.4-12.1], ICH 3.6 [3.2-4.2], SAH 6.8 [6.2-7.5] and unspecified 3.3 [2.9-3.8]). The incidence was however higher around delivery (281.9 [141.6-561.2]) and in the first six weeks postpartum (43.8 [25.3-75.9]) and the rate ratios compared to the non-pregnant period after adjusting for age were 19.2 (9.6-38.3) and 3.0 (1.7-5.2) respectively.
Conclusions:
Although the incidence of stroke for young women was relatively low, the incidence around delivery or in the early postpartum was significantly higher compared to other periods, regardless of maternal age.
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Woodhouse L, Sprigg N, Bath PM. Abstract WP418: Outcome Comparison Between Patients Suffering a Stroke/TIA or a Moderate/major Bleed: Data From the ‘Triple Antiplatelets for Reducing Dependency After Ischaemic Stroke’ (TARDIS) Trial. Stroke 2016. [DOI: 10.1161/str.47.suppl_1.wp418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Introduction:
After ischaemic stroke (IS) or TIA, recurrence and moderate/major bleeding are each associated with worse outcome. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes for patients who did and did not have recurrence or bleeding using data from the ongoing TARDIS trial.
Method:
TARDIS is assessing the safety and efficacy of intensive vs guideline antiplatelet agents in 4,100 patients with acute non-cardioembolic IS or TIA. Information on bleeding, and recurrent IS and TIA is collected up to day 90. Functional outcome are assessed centrally with blinding to treatment assignment at day 90. Data are unadjusted odds ratio (OR) or mean difference (MD) with 95% confidence interval (CI), and do not take account of treatment assignment.
Results:
In 2697 recruited patients (of a planned 4100), recurrent events (178, 6.6%) were more common in patients with a qualifying event of TIA (p=0.017). Major (51 patients, 1.9%), including fatal (7 patients, 0.3%) bleeding were uncommon. Patients with a recurrence or moderate/major bleeding event had worse outcomes at day 90 than those without such events: more deaths, dependency (modified Rankin Scale), disability (Barthel Index), cognitive impairment (TICS-M), worse quality of life (EQ-5D HUS) and more mood disturbance (Zung depression scale) - all comparisons p<0.001.
Conclusion:
Recurrent events are more common after TIA. Both recurrence and bleeding are associated with a worse outcome.
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Sprigg N, Robson K, Bath PM. Abstract TP364: Use of Do Not Attempt Resuscitation (DNAR) Forms Early in Haemorrahgic Stroke: Data From the Ongoing Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Primary Intracerebral Haemorrhage (TICH-2) Study. Stroke 2016. [DOI: 10.1161/str.47.suppl_1.tp364] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Introduction:
International guidelines recommend the avoidance of DNAR in the first few days after haemorrhagic stroke.
Methods:
The ongoing TICH-2 records, at days 2 and 7, whether the participant has a DNAR order. Baseline characteristics and outcomes were compared between those that had a DNAR and those that did not. Outcomes included; early death (died on or before day 7), day 90 modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel index (BI), cognition and Euroqol-5D.
Results:
Of the 926 participants in TICH-2 who reached day 90, 156 (16.8%) participants had a DNAR at day 2 increasing to 194 (21.0%) at day 7; giving a total of 210 (22.7%) people having a DNAR. The patients with a DNAR were found to be older (79 versus 67), more likely to be female (56.2% versus 41.1%) and their average baseline severity (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, NIHSS) was worse (19 versus 10). There were 96 early deaths, 92 (95.8%) had a DNAR. Only 4 people without a DNAR died early. Early death, day 90 mRS, BI and Euroqol-5D were significantly worse for the people who had a DNAR (all p-values <0.0001). Cognition (p=0.0321) was also significant. All deaths by day 90 were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model, giving a hazard ratio of 10.8 (7.2, 16.2), with p<0.0001. All models were adjusted for age, NIHSS and mRS at baseline.
Conclusion:
Use of DNAR early after intracerebral haemorrhage is common and an independent predictor of death and poor outcome, although use of early DNAR in some patients maybe appropriate.
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Sprigg N, Robson K, Bath PM. Abstract WP361: Patients From the Tranexamic Acid for Hyperacute Intracerebral Haemorrhage (TICH-2) Trial Suffering From Hyperglycaemia at Baseline; Their Characteristics and Day 90 Outcomes. Stroke 2016. [DOI: 10.1161/str.47.suppl_1.wp361] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Introduction:
Hyperglycaemia (HG) at presentation has been associated with poor outcome in intracerebral haemorrhage. Relationship with haematoma location (HL) has not been studied.
Methods:
In the ongoing TICH-2 study, history of diabetes and blood glucose level is recorded at baseline. Baseline characteristics and day 90 outcomes were compared for those with HG (glucose>6.5 mmol/L) and people with a history of diabetes. Day 90 outcomes include; modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Barthel index (BI) and Euroqol-5D (EQ-5D).
Results:
As of 21st July 2015, of 1065 participants, 477 (44.8%) of these had HG. Patients with HG had more lobar and infra-tentorial, than deep locations (chi-square: p<0.0001) and their baseline NIHSS scores were worse (multiple linear regression (MLR): p<0.0001). Day 90 mRS was worse for the HG patients (ordinal logistic regression, OR (95% CI): 1.87 (1.47, 2.38), p<0.0001). MLR was performed on other day 90 outcomes; BI (p=0.0103), EQ-5D (p<0.0001) and Zung (p=0.0447) were all worse for the HG group. The total number of patients with a SAE was found to differ significantly (chi-square: p<0.0001). Deaths were analysed and found to be non-significant. Patients with a history of diabetes were found to have significantly higher baseline glucose levels than those without (9.8 vs. 6.7, MLR: p<0.0001). BI was the only significant outcome for patients with diabetes (p=0.0473).
Conclusion:
Participants with HG had different haematoma locations and a worse NIHSS score at baseline. They also had significantly worse outcomes at day 90. History of diabetes was related to glucose level and BI at day 90 but not HL or other outcomes.
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Krishnan K, Scutt P, Woodhouse L, Adami A, Becker JL, Berge E, Cala LA, Casado AM, Caso V, Chen C, Christensen H, Collins R, Czlonkowska A, Dineen RA, Gommans J, Koumellis P, Lees KR, Ntaios G, Ozturk S, Phillips SJ, Pocock SJ, de Silva A, Sprigg N, Szatmari S, Wardlaw JM, Bath PM. Glyceryl Trinitrate for Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage. Stroke 2016; 47:44-52. [DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.115.010368] [Citation(s) in RCA: 28] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2015] [Accepted: 10/26/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Scutt P, Blackburn D, Krishnan K, Ballard C, Burns A, Ford GA, Mant J, Passmore P, Pocock S, Reckless J, Sprigg N, Stewart R, Wardlaw JM, Bath PM. Baseline characteristics, analysis plan and report on feasibility for the Prevention Of Decline in Cognition After Stroke Trial (PODCAST). Trials 2015; 16:509. [PMID: 26545986 PMCID: PMC4636808 DOI: 10.1186/s13063-015-1033-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2015] [Accepted: 10/27/2015] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND A common complication after stroke is development of cognitive impairment and dementia. However, effective strategies for reducing the risk of developing these problems remain undefined. Potential strategies include intensive lowering of blood pressure (BP) and/or lipids. This paper summarises the baseline characteristics, statistical analysis plan and feasibility of a randomised control trial of blood pressure and lipid lowering in patients post-stroke with the primary objective of reducing cognitive impairment and dementia. METHODS The Prevention Of Decline in Cognition After Stroke Trial (PODCAST) was a multi-centre prospective randomised open-label blinded-endpoint controlled partial-factorial internal pilot trial running in secondary and primary care. Participants without dementia were enrolled 3-7 months post ischaemic stroke or spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage, and randomised to intensive versus guideline BP lowering (target systolic BP <125 mmHg versus <140 mmHg); patients with ischaemic stroke were also randomised to intensive or guideline lipid lowering (target LDL cholesterol <1.4 mmol/L versus <3 mmol/L). The primary outcome was the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised; a key secondary outcome was to assess feasibility of performing a large trial of one or both interventions. Data are number (%) or mean (standard deviation). The trial was planned to last for 8 years with follow-up between 1 and 8 years. The plan for reporting the main results is included as Additional file 2. RESULTS 83 patients (of a planned 600) were recruited from 19 UK sites between 7 October 2010 and 31 January 2014. Delays, due to difficulties in the provision of excess treatment costs and to complexity of follow-up, led to few centres taking part and a much lower recruitment rate than planned. Patient characteristics at baseline were: age 74 (SD 7) years, male 64 (77 %), index stroke ischaemic 77 (93 %), stroke onset to randomisation 4.5 [SD 1.3] months, Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised 86 (of 100, SD 8), Montreal Cognitive Assessment 24 (of 30, SD 3), BP 147/82 (SD 19/11) mmHg, total cholesterol 4.0 (SD 0.8) mmol/L and LDL cholesterol 2.0 (SD 0.7) mmol/L, modified Rankin Scale 1.1 (SD 0.8). CONCLUSION Limited recruitment suggests that a large trial is not feasible using the current protocol. The effects of the interventions on BP, lipids, and cognition will be reported in the main publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION ISRCTN85562386 registered on 23 September 2009.
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Woodhouse L, Scutt P, Krishnan K, Berge E, Gommans J, Ntaios G, Wardlaw J, Sprigg N, Bath PM. Effect of Hyperacute Administration (Within 6 Hours) of Transdermal Glyceryl Trinitrate, a Nitric Oxide Donor, on Outcome After Stroke: Subgroup Analysis of the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) Trial. Stroke 2015; 46:3194-201. [PMID: 26463698 DOI: 10.1161/strokeaha.115.009647] [Citation(s) in RCA: 75] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2015] [Accepted: 09/01/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Nitric oxide donors are candidate treatments for acute stroke, potentially through hemodynamic, reperfusion, and neuroprotectant effects, especially if given early. Although the large Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial of transdermal glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) was neutral, a prespecified subgroup suggested that GTN improved functional outcome if administered early after stroke onset. METHODS Prospective analysis of subgroup of patients randomized into the ENOS trial within 6 hours of stroke onset. Safety and efficacy of GTN versus no GTN were assessed using data on early and late outcomes. RESULTS Two hundred seventy-three patients were randomized within 6 hours of ictus: mean (SD) age, 69.9 (12.7) years; men, 154 (56.4%); ischemic stroke, 208 (76.2%); Scandinavian Stroke Scale, 32.1 (11.9); and total anterior circulation syndrome, 86 (31.5%). When compared with no GTN, the first dose of GTN lowered blood pressure by 9.4/3.3 mm Hg (P<0.01, P=0.064) and shifted the modified Rankin Scale to a better outcome by day 90, adjusted common odds ratio, 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.80). Significant beneficial effects were also seen with GTN for disability (Barthel Index), quality of life (EuroQol-Visual Analogue Scale), cognition (telephone Mini-Mental State Examination), and mood (Zung Depression Scale). GTN was safe to administer with less serious adverse events by day 90 (GTN 18.8% versus no GTN 34.1%) and death (hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence interval, 0.20-0.99; P=0.047). CONCLUSIONS In a subgroup analysis of the large ENOS trial, transdermal GTN was safe to administer and associated with improved functional outcome and fewer deaths when administered within 6 hours of stroke onset. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00989716.
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Flint AC, Rao VA, Chan SL, Cullen SP, Faigeles BS, Smith WS, Bath PM, Wahlgren N, Ahmed N, Donnan GA, Johnston SC. Improved Ischemic Stroke Outcome Prediction Using Model Estimation of Outcome Probability: The THRIVE-c Calculation. Int J Stroke 2015; 10:815-21. [DOI: 10.1111/ijs.12529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/10/2014] [Accepted: 02/25/2015] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
Abstract
Background and purpose The Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) score is a previously validated ischemic stroke outcome prediction tool. Although simplified scoring systems like the THRIVE score facilitate ease-of-use, when computers or devices are available at the point of care, a more accurate and patient-specific estimation of outcome probability should be possible by computing the logistic equation with patient-specific continuous variables. Methods We used data from 12 207 subjects from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive and the Safe Implementation of Thrombolysis in Stroke – Monitoring Study to develop and validate the performance of a model-derived estimation of outcome probability, the THRIVE-c calculation. Models were built with logistic regression using the underlying predictors from the THRIVE score: age, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and the Chronic Disease Scale (presence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, or atrial fibrillation). Receiver operator characteristics analysis was used to assess model performance and compare the THRIVE-c model to the traditional THRIVE score, using a two-tailed Chi-squared test. Results The THRIVE-c model performed similarly in the randomly chosen development cohort ( n = 6194, area under the curve = 0·786, 95% confidence interval 0·774–0·798) and validation cohort ( n = 6013, area under the curve = 0·784, 95% confidence interval 0·772–0·796) ( P = 0·79). Similar performance was also seen in two separate external validation cohorts. The THRIVE-c model (area under the curve = 0·785, 95% confidence interval 0·777–0·793) had superior performance when compared with the traditional THRIVE score (area under the curve = 0·746, 95% confidence interval 0·737–0·755) ( P < 0·001). Conclusion By computing the logistic equation with patientspecific continuous variables in the THRIVE-c calculation, outcomes at the individual patient level are more accurately estimated. Given the widespread availability of computers and devices at the point of care, such calculations can be easily performed with a simple user interface.
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