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Long A, Lungu JC, Machila E, Schwaninger S, Spector J, Tadmor B, Fishman M, Mayosi BM, Musuku J. A programme to increase appropriate usage of benzathine penicillin for management of streptococcal pharyngitis and rheumatic heart disease in Zambia. Cardiovasc J Afr 2018; 28:242-247. [PMID: 28906539 PMCID: PMC5642026 DOI: 10.5830/cvja-2017-002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2015] [Accepted: 07/17/2016] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Rheumatic heart disease is highly prevalent and associated with substantial morbidity and mortality in many resource-poor areas of the world, including sub-Saharan Africa. Primary and secondary prophylaxis with penicillin has been shown to significantly improve outcomes and is recognised to be the standard of care, with intra-muscular benzathine penicillin G recommended as the preferred agent by many technical experts. However, ensuring compliance with therapy has proven to be challenging. As part of a public-private partnership initiative in Zambia, we conducted an educational and access-to-medicine programme aimed at increasing appropriate use of benzathine penicillin for the prevention and management of rheumatic heart disease, according to national guidelines. The programme was informed early on by identification of potential barriers to the administration of injectable penicillin, which included concern by health workers about allergic events. We describe this programme and report initial signs of success, as indicated by increased use of benzathine penicillin. We propose that a similar approach may have benefits in rheumatic heart disease programmes in other endemic regions.
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Isiguzo GC, Zunza M, Chirehwa M, Mayosi BM, Thabane L. Quality of pilot trial abstracts in heart failure is suboptimal: a systematic survey. Pilot Feasibility Stud 2018; 4:107. [PMID: 29862038 PMCID: PMC5977467 DOI: 10.1186/s40814-018-0302-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2018] [Accepted: 05/23/2018] [Indexed: 12/26/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pilot trials are miniature researches carried out with the sole aim of acting as the precursor for larger more definitive studies. Abstracts are used to summarize and introduce the findings to the reading audience. There is substantive empirical evidence showing that abstracts, despite their important roles, are not informative enough, lacking the necessary details. This systematic survey was designed to assess the quality of reporting of heart failure pilot trial abstracts. The quality of reporting was defined as the completeness of reporting based on adherence to the CONSORT extension for reporting of pilot trial abstracts. We also identified factors associated with reporting quality. METHODS We searched MEDLINE (PubMed), Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Scopus, and African-wide information databases for abstracts from heart failure pilot trials in humans published from 1 January 1990 to 30 November 2016. These were assessed to determine the extent of adherence to CONSORT extension checklist for reporting of abstracts of pilot trials. We screened identified studies for inclusion based on title and abstract. Data were independently extracted by two reviewers using the checklist. We used regression analysis to assess the association between completeness of reporting (measured as the number of items in the CONSORT extension checklist for reporting of abstracts in pilot trials contained in each abstract) and factors influencing the quality of the reports. RESULTS Two hundred and twenty-eight (228) articles were retrieved, of which 92 met the inclusion criteria. The mean CONSORT extension score was 8.3/16 (standard deviation 1.7); the least reported items were the source of funding (1% [1/92]), trial registration (13% [12/92]), randomization sequence (13% [12/92]), number randomized to each arm (16% [15/92]), and number analyzed in each arm (16% [15/92]). Multivariable regression analysis showed that pharmacological intervention pilot trials [incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.81-0.97] were significantly associated with better reporting. Other factors such as structured abstract (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.99-1.23) and CONSORT endorsement (IRR = 1.10; 95% CI, 0.99-1.23) only showed minimal relationship with better reporting quality. CONCLUSION The quality of reporting of abstracts of heart failure pilot trials was suboptimal. Pharmacological intervention was significantly associated with better reporting. These findings are consistent with previous research on reporting of trials.
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Barth D, Mayosi BM, Badri M, Whitelaw A, Engel ME. Invasive and non-invasive group A β-haemolytic streptococcal infections in patients attending public sector facilities in South Africa: 2003–2015. S Afr J Infect Dis 2018. [DOI: 10.4102/sajid.v33i1.29] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/01/2022] Open
Abstract
Background: The burden of disease caused by group A streptococcus (GAS) in Africa is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of invasive (iGAS) and non-invasive GAS (non-iGAS) infections in patients attending the public health sector of South Africa.Methods: iGAS and non-iGAS infection was defined as GAS isolated in culture from sterile and non-sterile sites respectively. Using annual census data, we calculated incidence rates (IR) of iGAS and non-iGAS infection by reviewing cases from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) database derived from the 9 provinces of South Africa between 2003 and 2015.Results: About 50% of the samples were collected in the Eastern Cape province which had data for all the years under observation; missing data from the other eight provinces precluded analysis of annual incidence. A multi-modal distribution of 5 256 GAS cases was observed in the Eastern Cape province. iGAS cases (n = 428) showed an annual mean IR of 0.48 (Range: 0.15–1.12) cases per 105 per year (py) with a marginal decrease from 2003 to 2015 (Rate Difference (RD), 0.23/105 py; 95% CI: 0.02–0.44/105 py). The mean annual IR for non-iGAS infection (n = 4828) was 5.48 (Range: 0.19–11.55) cases/105py; IR showed a decrease (RD, 11.36/105 py; 95% CI: 10.53–12.19/105 py). The Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator showed a decreasing trend in the incidence of non-iGAS infection (p = 0.002) over the study period.Conclusions: The incidence of non-iGAS infection in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa declined from 2003 to 2015. The trends from the Eastern Cape and incomplete data from other provinces indicate the need for a detailed prospective evaluation of GAS infection in South Africa to verify this trend and provide information for planning appropriate interventions.
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Prendergast EA, Perkins S, Engel ME, Cupido B, Francis V, Joachim A, Al Kebsi M, Bode-Thomas F, Damasceno A, Abul Fadl A, El Sayed A, Gitura B, Kennedy N, Ibrahim A, Mucumbitsi J, Adeoye AM, Musuku J, Okello E, Olunuga T, Sheta S, Mayosi BM, Zühlke LJ. Participation in research improves overall patient management: insights from the Global Rheumatic Heart Disease registry (REMEDY). Cardiovasc J Afr 2018; 29:98-105. [PMID: 29570206 PMCID: PMC6008904 DOI: 10.5830/cvja-2017-054] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2017] [Accepted: 11/19/2017] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a major public health problem in low– and middle–income countries (LMICs), with a paucity of high–quality trial data to improve patient outcomes. Investigators felt that involvement in a recent large, observational RHD study impacted positively on their practice, but this was poorly defined. Aim The purpose of this study was to document the experience of investigators and research team members from LMICs who participated in a prospective, multi–centre study, the global Rheumatic Heart Disease Registry (REMEDY), conducted in 25 centres in 14 countries from 2010 to 2012. Methods We conducted an online survey of site personnel to identify and quantify their experiences. Telephone interviews were conducted with a subset of respondents to gather additional qualitative data. We asked about their experiences, positive and negative, and about any changes in RHD management practices resulting from their participation in REMEDY as a registry site. Results The majority of respondents in both the survey and telephone interviews indicated that participation as a registry site improved their management of RHD patients. Administrative changes included increased attention to follow–up appointments and details in patient records. Clinical changes included increased use of penicillin prophylaxis, and more frequent INR monitoring and contraceptive counselling. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that participation in clinical research on RHD can have a positive impact on patient management. Furthermore, REMEDY has led to increased patient awareness and improved healthcare workers’ knowledge and efficiency in caring for RHD patients.
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Deffur A, Wilkinson RJ, Mayosi BM, Mulder NM. ANIMA: Association network integration for multiscale analysis. Wellcome Open Res 2018. [DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14073.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Contextual functional interpretation of -omics data derived from clinical samples is a classical and difficult problem in computational systems biology. The measurement of thousands of data points on single samples has become routine but relating ‘big data’ datasets to the complexities of human pathobiology is an area of ongoing research. Complicating this is the fact that many publically available datasets use bulk transcriptomics data from complex tissues like blood. The most prevalent analytic approaches derive molecular ‘signatures’ of disease states or apply modular analysis frameworks to the data. Here we describe ANIMA (association network integration for multiscale analysis), a network-based data integration method using clinical phenotype and microarray data as inputs. ANIMA is implemented in R and Neo4j and runs in Docker containers. In short, the build algorithm iterates over one or more transcriptomics datasets to generate a large, multipartite association network by executing multiple independent analytic steps (differential expression, deconvolution, modular analysis based on co-expression, pathway analysis) and integrating the results. Once the network is built, it can be queried directly using Cypher, or via custom functions that communicate with the graph database via language-specific APIs. We developed a web application using Shiny, which provides fully interactive, multiscale views of the data. Using our approach, we show that we can reconstruct multiple features of disease states at various scales of organization, from transcript abundance patterns of individual genes through co-expression patterns of groups of genes to patterns of cellular behaviour in whole blood samples, both in single experiments as well as in a meta-analysis of multiple datasets.
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Barth D, M Mayosi B, Badri M, Whitelaw A, E Engel M. Invasive and non-invasive group A β-haemolytic streptococcal infections in patients attending public sector facilities in South Africa: 2003–2015. S Afr J Infect Dis 2018. [DOI: 10.1080/23120053.2017.1376546] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/18/2022] Open
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Hyle EP, Mayosi BM, Middelkoop K, Mosepele M, Martey EB, Walensky RP, Bekker LG, Triant VA. The association between HIV and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review. BMC Public Health 2017; 17:954. [PMID: 29246206 PMCID: PMC5732372 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-017-4940-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/04/2017] [Accepted: 11/22/2017] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has confronted decades of the HIV epidemic with substantial improvements in access to life-saving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Now, with improved survival, people living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD). We assessed the existing literature regarding the association of CVD outcomes and HIV in SSA. Methods We used the PRISMA guidelines to perform a systematic review of the published literature regarding the association of CVD and HIV in SSA with a focus on CVD surrogate and clinical outcomes in PLWH. Results From January 2000 until March 2017, 31 articles were published regarding CVD outcomes among PLWH in SSA. Data from surrogate CVD outcomes (n = 13) suggest an increased risk of CVD events among PLWH in SSA. Although acute coronary syndrome is reported infrequently in SSA among PLWH, limited data from five studies suggest extensive thrombus and hypercoagulability as contributing factors. Additional studies suggest an increased risk of stroke among PLWH (n = 13); however, most data are from immunosuppressed ART-naïve PLWH and thus are potentially confounded by the possibility of central nervous system infections. Conclusions Given ongoing gaps in our current understanding of CVD and other NCDs in PLWH in SSA, it is imperative to ascertain the burden of CVD outcomes, and to examine strategies for intervention and best practices to enhance the health of this vulnerable population. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4940-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Isiguzo G, Zunza M, Chirehwa M, Mayosi BM, Thabane L. Quality of abstracts of pilot trials in heart failure: A protocol for a systematic survey. Contemp Clin Trials Commun 2017; 8:258-263. [PMID: 29696217 PMCID: PMC5898522 DOI: 10.1016/j.conctc.2017.11.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2017] [Revised: 10/27/2017] [Accepted: 11/06/2017] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Pilot trials are initial small-scale studies done to inform the design of larger trials. Their findings like other studies are usually disseminated as peer-reviewed journal articles. Abstracts are used to introduce the contents to readers, and give a general idea about the full reports and sometimes are the only source of information available to readers. Despite their importance, the contents of abstracts of trial reports are usually not informative enough and lack the essential details. METHODS AND ANALYSIS This is a protocol for a planned systematic survey with a primary aim of analyzing the reporting quality measured as the completeness of the reporting of pilot trial abstracts in heart failure. The secondary aim will be to explore factors associated with better reporting quality.Abstracts of heart failure pilot trials in humans (journal and conference abstracts) published in the English language from 1 January 1990 to 30 November 2016 will be assessed to determine the reporting quality, based on the CONSORT 2010 statement extension to randomized pilot and feasibility trials. All non-pilot/feasibility trials and non-human pilot trials will be excluded. We will search Medline (PUBMED), Cochrane controlled trials register, Scopus and African wide information databases for pilot trials in heart failure. Title and abstracts of identified studies will be screened for inclusion and data extracted independently by two reviewers in duplicate without using the full text. Reported and unreported items on the abstracts will be presented as frequencies and percentages, a descriptive analysis will be used to interpret the reporting quality and regression analysis used for characteristics associated with greater statistical reporting at 95% confidence interval. REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER PROSPERO CRD42016049911.
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Zühlke L, Mayosi BM. The life and the legacy of Hamilton Naki: Experimental heart transplant surgeon and teacher. J Heart Lung Transplant 2017; 36:1309-1310. [PMID: 29173393 DOI: 10.1016/j.healun.2017.10.006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2017] [Accepted: 10/16/2017] [Indexed: 10/18/2022] Open
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Wiyeh AB, Ochodo EA, Wiysonge CS, Kakia A, Awotedu AA, Ristic A, Mayosi BM. A systematic review of the efficacy and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in patients with pericardial effusion. Int J Cardiol 2017; 250:223-228. [PMID: 29107356 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcard.2017.10.049] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/19/2017] [Accepted: 10/13/2017] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Pericardial effusion is the abnormal accumulation of fluid in the pericardial space. The complications of pericardial effusion can either be acute (e.g., cardiac tamponade) or chronic (e.g., constrictive pericarditis). We have conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature to evaluate the efficacy and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in preventing complications of pericardial effusion. We searched for both published and unpublished studies. 29 studies, with a total of 109 patients were included in this review; 17 case reports, 11 case series, and one randomised controlled trial (RCT). All included studies had a high risk of bias. The most common causes of pericardial effusion were Staphylococcus aureus (12 studies with 23 cases) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (2 studies with 19 cases). The most common fibrinolytic agents used were streptokinase (15 studies) and urokinase (5 studies). Intrapericardial fibrinolysis prevented complications in 94 (86.2%) patients. Non-fatal procedure-related complications were reported 21 (19.2%) patients. No patient died following intrapericardial fibrinolysis. There is very low certainty of the efficiency and safety of intrapericardial fibrinolysis in preventing the complications of pericardial effusion. High quality RCTs are required to address this question.
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Shenje J, Lai RP, Ross IL, Mayosi BM, Wilkinson RJ, Ntsekhe M, Wilkinson KA. Effect of prednisolone on inflammatory markers in pericardial tuberculosis: A pilot study. IJC HEART & VASCULATURE 2017; 18:104-108. [PMID: 29750184 PMCID: PMC5941241 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijcha.2017.10.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2017] [Revised: 09/27/2017] [Accepted: 10/22/2017] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Pericardial disorders are a common cause of heart disease, and the most common cause of pericarditis in developing countries is tuberculous (TB) pericarditis. It has been shown that prednisolone added to standard anti-TB therapy leads to a lower rate of constrictive pericarditis. We conducted a pilot study to evaluate the effect of adjunctive prednisolone treatment on the concentration of inflammatory markers in pericardial tuberculosis, in order to inform immunological mechanisms at the disease site. METHODS Pericardial fluid, plasma and saliva samples were collected from fourteen patients with pericardial tuberculosis, at multiple time points. Inflammatory markers were measured using multiplex luminex analysis and ELISA. RESULTS In samples from 14 patients we confirmed a strongly compartmentalized immune response at the disease site and found that prednisolone significantly reduced IL-6 concentrations in plasma by 8 hours of treatment, IL-1beta concentrations in saliva, as well as IL-8 concentrations in both pericardial fluid and saliva by 24 hours. CONCLUSION Monitoring the early effect of adjunctive immunotherapy in plasma or saliva is a possibility in pericarditis.
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Munung NS, Mayosi BM, de Vries J. Equity in international health research collaborations in Africa: Perceptions and expectations of African researchers. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0186237. [PMID: 29036174 PMCID: PMC5643046 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0186237] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2017] [Accepted: 09/27/2017] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction and method Africa is currently host to a number of international genomics research and biobanking consortia, each with a mandate to advance genomics research and biobanking in Africa. Whilst most of these consortia promise to transform the way international health research is done in Africa, few have articulated exactly how they propose to go about this. In this paper, we report on a qualitative interviewing study in which we involved 17 genomics researchers in Africa. We describe their perceptions and expectations of international genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa. Results All interviewees were of the view that externally funded genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa, have played a critical role in building capacity for genomics research and biobanking in Africa and in providing an opportunity for researchers in Africa to collaborate and network with other researchers. Whilst the opportunity to collaborate was seen as a benefit, some interviewees stressed the importance of recognizing that these collaborations carry mutual benefits for all partners, including their collaborators in HICs. They also voiced two major concerns of being part of these collaborative initiatives: the possibility of exploitation of African researchers and the non-sustainability of research capacity building efforts. As a way of minimising exploitation, researchers in Africa recommended that genuine efforts be made to create transparent and equitable international health research partnerships. They suggested that this could be achieved through,: having rules of engagement, enabling African researchers to contribute to the design and conduct of international health projects in Africa, and mutual and respectful exchange of experience and capacity between research collaborators. These were identified as hallmarks to equitable international health research collaborations in Africa. Conclusion Genomics research and biobanking initiatives in Africa such as H3Africa have gone some way in defining aspects of fair and equitable research collaborations in Africa. However, they will need to strive at achieving equitable health research collaborations if they truly aim at setting a gold standard for how international health research should be conducted in Africa.
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Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akanda AS, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Assaye AM, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bjerregaard P, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bukhman G, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Burch M, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro FF, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chen H, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colquhoun SM, Coresh J, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Dixit P, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Dwivedi LK, Ebrahimi H, El Bcheraoui C, Ellingsen CL, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshetie S, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremichael MW, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Gemechu BL, Gemechu KS, Genova-Maleras R, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Girma BW, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez B, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hakuzimana A, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He F, Heredia-Pi IB, Herteliu C, Hilawe EH, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Irenso AA, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islam N, Jacobsen KH, Jaenisch T, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jin Y, John D, John O, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Ketema EB, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja ATA, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim P, Kim S, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kishawi S, Kissoon N, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Lachat C, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert N, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macarayan ER, Machado IE, Mackay MT, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Marks GB, Martin EA, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Massano J, Maulik PK, Mayosi BM, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta KM, Meier T, Mekonnen TC, Meles KG, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Menon GR, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Mikesell J, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Nanda L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nisar MI, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Nyakarahuka L, O'Donnell MJ, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, PA M, Pacella RE, Pakhale S, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Postma MJ, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rivas JC, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salama J, Salamati P, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Seid AM, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh PK, Singh A, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skarbek KAK, Skiadaresi E, Sligar A, Smith DL, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stokes MA, Strong M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadese F, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema CL, Tesssema B, Theis A, Thomas N, Thompson AH, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tsilimparis N, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varakin YY, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Velasquez IM, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vishnu A, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Waid JL, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Workicho A, Workie SB, Xavier D, Xu G, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1084-1150. [PMID: 28919115 PMCID: PMC5605514 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 488] [Impact Index Per Article: 69.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2017] [Revised: 05/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. INTERPRETATION Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Wiysonge CS, Ntsekhe M, Thabane L, Volmink J, Majombozi D, Gumedze F, Pandie S, Mayosi BM. Interventions for treating tuberculous pericarditis. Cochrane Database Syst Rev 2017; 9:CD000526. [PMID: 28902412 PMCID: PMC5618454 DOI: 10.1002/14651858.cd000526.pub2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Tuberculous pericarditis can impair the heart's function and cause death; long term, it can cause the membrane to fibrose and constrict causing heart failure. In addition to antituberculous chemotherapy, treatments include corticosteroids, drainage, and surgery. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of treatments for tuberculous pericarditis. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register (27 March 2017); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), published in the Cochrane Library (2017, Issue 2); MEDLINE (1966 to 27 March 2017); Embase (1974 to 27 March 2017); and LILACS (1982 to 27 March 2017). In addition we searched the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) search portal using 'tuberculosis' and 'pericard*' as search terms on 27 March 2017. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov and contacted researchers in the field of tuberculous pericarditis. This is a new version of the original 2002 review. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently screened search outputs, evaluated study eligibility, assessed risk of bias, and extracted data; and we resolved any discrepancies by discussion and consensus. One trial assessed the effects of both corticosteroid and Mycobacterium indicus pranii treatment in a two-by-two factorial design; we excluded data from the group that received both interventions. We conducted fixed-effect meta-analysis and assessed the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. MAIN RESULTS Seven trials met the inclusion criteria; all were from sub-Saharan Africa and included 1959 participants, with 1051/1959 (54%) HIV-positive. All trials evaluated corticosteroids and one each evaluated colchicine, M. indicus pranii immunotherapy, and open surgical drainage. Four trials (1841 participants) were at low risk of bias, and three trials (118 participants) were at high risk of bias.In people who are not infected with HIV, corticosteroids may reduce deaths from all causes (risk ratio (RR) 0.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59 to 1.09; 660 participants, 4 trials, low certainty evidence) and the need for repeat pericardiocentesis (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70 to 1.04; 492 participants, 2 trials, low certainty evidence). Corticosteroids probably reduce deaths from pericarditis (RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.80; 660 participants, 4 trials, moderate certainty evidence). However, we do not know whether or not corticosteroids have an effect on constriction or cancer among HIV-negative people (very low certainty evidence).In people living with HIV, only 19.9% (203/1959) were on antiretroviral drugs. Corticosteroids may reduce constriction (RR 0.55, 0.26 to 1.16; 575 participants, 3 trials, low certainty evidence). It is uncertain whether corticosteroids have an effect on all-cause death or cancer (very low certainty evidence); and may have little or no effect on repeat pericardiocentesis (RR 1.02, 0.89 to 1.18; 517 participants, 2 trials, low certainty evidence).For colchicine among people living with HIV, we found one small trial (33 participants) which had insufficient data to make any conclusions about any effects on death or constrictive pericarditis.Irrespective of HIV status, due to very low certainty evidence from one trial, it is uncertain whether adding M. indicus pranii immunotherapy to antituberculous drugs has an effect on any outcome.Open surgical drainage for effusion may reduce repeat pericardiocentesis In HIV-negative people (RR 0.23, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.76; 122 participants, 1 trial, low certainty evidence) but may make little or no difference to other outcomes. We did not find an eligible trial that assessed the effects of open surgical drainage in people living with HIV.The review authors found no eligible trials that examined the length of antituberculous treatment needed nor the effects of other adjunctive treatments for tuberculous pericarditis. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS For HIV-negative patients, corticosteroids may reduce death. For HIV-positive patients not on antiretroviral drugs, corticosteroids may reduce constriction. For HIV-positive patients with good antiretroviral drug viral suppression, clinicians may consider the results from HIV-negative patients more relevant.Further research may help evaluate percutaneous drainage of the pericardium under local anaesthesia, the timing of pericardiectomy in tuberculous constrictive pericarditis, and new antibiotic regimens.
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Watkins DA, Johnson CO, Colquhoun SM, Karthikeyan G, Beaton A, Bukhman G, Forouzanfar MH, Longenecker CT, Mayosi BM, Mensah GA, Nascimento BR, Ribeiro ALP, Sable CA, Steer AC, Naghavi M, Mokdad AH, Murray CJL, Vos T, Carapetis JR, Roth GA. Global, Regional, and National Burden of Rheumatic Heart Disease, 1990-2015. N Engl J Med 2017; 377:713-722. [PMID: 28834488 DOI: 10.1056/nejmoa1603693] [Citation(s) in RCA: 686] [Impact Index Per Article: 98.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Rheumatic heart disease remains an important preventable cause of cardiovascular death and disability, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated global, regional, and national trends in the prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease as part of the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS We systematically reviewed data on fatal and nonfatal rheumatic heart disease for the period from 1990 through 2015. Two Global Burden of Disease analytic tools, the Cause of Death Ensemble model and DisMod-MR 2.1, were used to produce estimates of mortality and prevalence, including estimates of uncertainty. RESULTS We estimated that there were 319,400 (95% uncertainty interval, 297,300 to 337,300) deaths due to rheumatic heart disease in 2015. Global age-standardized mortality due to rheumatic heart disease decreased by 47.8% (95% uncertainty interval, 44.7 to 50.9) from 1990 to 2015, but large differences were observed across regions. In 2015, the highest age-standardized mortality due to and prevalence of rheumatic heart disease were observed in Oceania, South Asia, and central sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated that in 2015 there were 33.4 million (95% uncertainty interval, 29.7 million to 43.1 million) cases of rheumatic heart disease and 10.5 million (95% uncertainty interval, 9.6 million to 11.5 million) disability-adjusted life-years due to rheumatic heart disease globally. CONCLUSIONS We estimated the global disease prevalence of and mortality due to rheumatic heart disease over a 25-year period. The health-related burden of rheumatic heart disease has declined worldwide, but high rates of disease persist in some of the poorest regions in the world. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Medtronic Foundation.).
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Sani MU, Mayosi BM. The Pacemaker and ICD Reuse Programme of the Pan-African Society of Cardiology. Heart 2017; 103:1844-1845. [DOI: 10.1136/heartjnl-2017-311462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
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Smedema JP, van Geuns RJ, Truter R, Mayosi BM, Crijns HJGM. Contrast-enhanced cardiac Magnetic Resonance: distinction between cardiac sarcoidosis and infarction scar. SARCOIDOSIS VASCULITIS AND DIFFUSE LUNG DISEASES 2017; 34:307-314. [PMID: 32476863 DOI: 10.36141/svdld.v34i4.5715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2016] [Accepted: 01/09/2017] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
Abstract
Objectives: To review the value of delayed contrast-enhanced cardiac magnetic resonance (CECMR) in differentiating patients with cardiac sarcoidosis (CS) from those with coronary artery disease and recent myocardial infarctions. Background: Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) accurately delineates myocardial necrosis or fibrosis. The pattern of LGE in ischemic and non-ischemic myocardial disease is different, and might be helpful in distinguishing CS from ischemic disease. Methods: The CECMR studies of 30 patients with CS were compared to those performed in 30 consecutive infarct patients, who had been managed with primary coronary interventions, and 10 healthy controls. Two experienced blinded observers classified patients by assessing the distribution of LGE. Results: LV LGE was present in 29/30 CS (mean 3.8 segments, range 0-12), all infarct (mean 4.3 segments, range 0-9), and none of the patients in the control group. The amount of LV LGE did not differ significantly between CS and infarct patients (19 ± 11% and 19 ± 12%, P= 0.8). The CS group exhibited a predominantly patchy, 3 layer LGE (P = 0.01), whereas confluent transmural LGE (P = 0.04) with a vascular distribution (P < 0.001) was prevalent in the infarct group. Significantly more RV LGE (P = 0.01) and dilation (P = 0.02) were found in the CS group. The two observers classified patients correctly as CS in 72% and 83% of cases, as ischemic in nature in 77% and 80% of cases, and as normal in 90% and 100% respectively. Conclusions: Gadolinium CMR was helpful in differentiating patients with CS from patients with ischemic heart disease and previous myocardial infarctions. In a subgroup of ischemic patients the pattern of LGE was atypical, and suggestive of non-ischemic etiology. (Sarcoidosis Vasc Diffuse Lung Dis 2017; 34: 307-314).
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Mayosi BM, Fish M, Shaboodien G, Mastantuono E, Kraus S, Wieland T, Kotta MC, Chin A, Laing N, Ntusi NB, Chong M, Horsfall C, Pimstone SN, Gentilini D, Parati G, Strom TM, Meitinger T, Pare G, Schwartz PJ, Crotti L. Identification of Cadherin 2 (
CDH2
) Mutations in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2017; 10:CIRCGENETICS.116.001605. [DOI: 10.1161/circgenetics.116.001605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 103] [Impact Index Per Article: 14.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2016] [Accepted: 02/22/2017] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background—
Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a genetically heterogeneous condition caused by mutations in genes encoding desmosomal proteins in up to 60% of cases. The 40% of genotype-negative cases point to the need of identifying novel genetic substrates by studying genotype-negative ARVC families.
Methods and Results—
Whole exome sequencing was performed on 2 cousins with ARVC. Validation of 13 heterozygous variants that survived internal quality and frequency filters was performed by Sanger sequencing. These variants were also genotyped in all family members to establish genotype–phenotype cosegregation. High-resolution melting analysis followed by Sanger sequencing was used to screen for mutations in cadherin 2 (
CDH2
) gene in unrelated genotype-negative patients with ARVC. In a 3-generation family, we identified by whole exome sequencing a novel mutation in
CDH2
(c.686A>C, p.Gln229Pro) that cosegregated with ARVC in affected family members. The
CDH2
c.686A>C variant was not present in >200 000 chromosomes available through public databases, which changes a conserved amino acid of cadherin 2 protein and is supported as the causal mutation by parametric linkage analysis. We subsequently screened 73 genotype-negative ARVC probands tested previously for mutations in known ARVC genes and found an additional likely pathogenic variant in
CDH2
(c.1219G>A, p.Asp407Asn).
CDH2
encodes cadherin 2 (also known as N-cadherin), a protein that plays a vital role in cell adhesion, making it a biologically plausible candidate gene in ARVC pathogenesis.
Conclusions—
These data implicate
CDH2
mutations as novel genetic causes of ARVC and contribute to a more complete identification of disease genes involved in cardiomyopathy.
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Sani MU, Davison BA, Cotter G, Damasceno A, Mayosi BM, Ogah OS, Mondo C, Dzudie A, Ojji DB, Kouam CK, Suliman A, Yonga G, Ba SA, Maru F, Alemayehu B, Edwards C, Sliwa K. Echocardiographic predictors of outcome in acute heart failure patients in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from THESUS-HF. Cardiovasc J Afr 2017; 28:60-67. [PMID: 28262911 PMCID: PMC5514351 DOI: 10.5830/cvja-2016-070] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2015] [Accepted: 07/10/2016] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The role of echocardiography in the risk stratification of acute heart failure (HF) is unknown. Some small studies and retrospective analyses have found little change in echocardiographic variables during admission for acute HF and some echocardiographic parameters were not found to be associated with outcomes. It is unknown which echocardiographic variables will predict outcomes in sub-Saharan African patients admitted with acute HF. Using echocardiograms, this study aimed to determine the predictors of death and re-admissions within 60 days and deaths up to 180 days in patients with acute heart failure. METHODS Out of the 1 006 patients in the THESUS-HF registry, 954 had had an echocardiogram performed within a few weeks of admission. Echocardiographic measurements were performed according to the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines. We examined the associations between each echocardiographic predictor and outcome using regression models. RESULTS Heart rate and left atrial size predicted death within 60 days or re-admission. Heart rate, left ventricular posterior wall thickness in diastole (PWTd), and presence of aortic stenosis were associated with the risk of death within 180 days. PTWd added to clinical variables in predicting 180-day mortality rates. CONCLUSIONS Echocardiographic variables, especially those of left ventricular size and function, were not found to have additional predictive value in patients admitted for acute HF. Left atrial size, aortic stenosis, heart rate and measures of hypertrophy (LV PWTd) had some predictive value, suggesting the importance of early treatment of hypertension and severe valvular heart disease.
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Ntusi NA, Shaboodien G, Badri M, Gumedze F, Mayosi BM. Clinical features, spectrum of causal genetic mutations and outcome of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy in South Africans. Cardiovasc J Afr 2017; 27:152-158. [PMID: 27841901 PMCID: PMC5101433 DOI: 10.5830/cvja-2015-075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2014] [Accepted: 09/15/2015] [Indexed: 11/06/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Little is known about the clinical characteristics, spectrum of causal genetic mutations and outcome of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) in Africans. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical and genetic features and outcome of HCM in African patients. METHODS Information on clinical presentation, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic findings, and outcome of cases with HCM was collected from the Cardiac Clinic at Groote Schuur Hospital over a mean duration of follow up of 9.1 ± 3.4 years. Genomic DNA was screened for mutations in 15 genes that cause HCM, i.e. cardiac myosin-binding protein C (MYBPC3), cardiac β-myosin heavy chain (MYH7), cardiac troponin T2 (TNNT2), cardiac troponin I (TNNI3), regulatory light chain of myosin (MYL2), essential light chain of myosin (MYL3), tropomyosin 1 (TPM1), phospholamban (PLN), α-actin (ACTC1), cysteine and glycine-rich protein 3 (CSRP3), AMP-activated protein kinase (PRKAG2), α-galactosidase (GLA), four-and-a-half LIM domains 1 (FHL1), lamin A/C (LMNA) and lysosome-associated membrane protein 2 (LAMP2). Survival and its predictors were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression methods, respectively. RESULTS Forty-three consecutive patients [mean age 38.5 ± 14.3 years; 25 (58.1%) male; and 13 (30.2%) black African] were prospectively enrolled in the study from January 1996 to December 2012. Clinical presentation was similar to that reported in other studies. The South African founder mutations that cause HCM were not found in the 42 probands. Ten of 35 index cases (28.6%) tested for mutations in 15 genes had disease-causing mutations in MYH7 (six cases or 60%) and MYBPC3 (four cases or 40%). No disease-causing mutation was found in the other 13 genes screened. The annual mortality rate was 2.9% per annum and overall survival was 74% at 10 years, which was similar to the general South African population. Cox's proportional hazards regression showed that survival was predicted by New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class at last visit (p equals; 0.026), but not by the presence of a disease-causing mutation (p = 0.474). CONCLUSIONS Comprehensive genetic screening was associated with a 29% yield of causal genetic mutations in South African HCM cases, all in MYH7 and MBPC3 genes. A quarter of the patients had died after a decade of follow up, with NYHA functional class serving as a predictor of survival.
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Abstract
BACKGROUND Beta-blockers refer to a mixed group of drugs with diverse pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic properties. They have shown long-term beneficial effects on mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) when used in people with heart failure or acute myocardial infarction. Beta-blockers were thought to have similar beneficial effects when used as first-line therapy for hypertension. However, the benefit of beta-blockers as first-line therapy for hypertension without compelling indications is controversial. This review is an update of a Cochrane Review initially published in 2007 and updated in 2012. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of beta-blockers on morbidity and mortality endpoints in adults with hypertension. SEARCH METHODS The Cochrane Hypertension Information Specialist searched the following databases for randomized controlled trials up to June 2016: the Cochrane Hypertension Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (2016, Issue 6), MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), and ClinicalTrials.gov. We checked reference lists of relevant reviews, and reference lists of studies potentially eligible for inclusion in this review, and also searched the the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform on 06 July 2015. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of at least one year of duration, which assessed the effects of beta-blockers compared to placebo or other drugs, as first-line therapy for hypertension, on mortality and morbidity in adults. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We selected studies and extracted data in duplicate, resolving discrepancies by consensus. We expressed study results as risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) and conducted fixed-effect or random-effects meta-analyses, as appropriate. We also used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence. GRADE classifies the certainty of evidence as high (if we are confident that the true effect lies close to that of the estimate of effect), moderate (if the true effect is likely to be close to the estimate of effect), low (if the true effect may be substantially different from the estimate of effect), and very low (if we are very uncertain about the estimate of effect). MAIN RESULTS Thirteen RCTs met inclusion criteria. They compared beta-blockers to placebo (4 RCTs, 23,613 participants), diuretics (5 RCTs, 18,241 participants), calcium-channel blockers (CCBs: 4 RCTs, 44,825 participants), and renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors (3 RCTs, 10,828 participants). These RCTs were conducted between the 1970s and 2000s and most of them had a high risk of bias resulting from limitations in study design, conduct, and data analysis. There were 40,245 participants taking beta-blockers, three-quarters of them taking atenolol. We found no outcome trials involving the newer vasodilating beta-blockers (e.g. nebivolol).There was no difference in all-cause mortality between beta-blockers and placebo (RR 0.99, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.11), diuretics or RAS inhibitors, but it was higher for beta-blockers compared to CCBs (RR 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.14). The evidence on mortality was of moderate-certainty for all comparisons.Total CVD was lower for beta-blockers compared to placebo (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.97; low-certainty evidence), a reflection of the decrease in stroke (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.96; low-certainty evidence) since there was no difference in coronary heart disease (CHD: RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.07; moderate-certainty evidence). The effect of beta-blockers on CVD was worse than that of CCBs (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.29; moderate-certainty evidence), but was not different from that of diuretics (moderate-certainty) or RAS inhibitors (low-certainty). In addition, there was an increase in stroke in beta-blockers compared to CCBs (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.40; moderate-certainty evidence) and RAS inhibitors (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.53; moderate-certainty evidence). However, there was little or no difference in CHD between beta-blockers and diuretics (low-certainty evidence), CCBs (moderate-certainty evidence) or RAS inhibitors (low-certainty evidence). In the single trial involving participants aged 65 years and older, atenolol was associated with an increased CHD incidence compared to diuretics (RR 1.63, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.32). Participants taking beta-blockers were more likely to discontinue treatment due to adverse events than participants taking RAS inhibitors (RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.54; moderate-certainty evidence), but there was little or no difference with placebo, diuretics or CCBs (low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS Most outcome RCTs on beta-blockers as initial therapy for hypertension have high risk of bias. Atenolol was the beta-blocker most used. Current evidence suggests that initiating treatment of hypertension with beta-blockers leads to modest CVD reductions and little or no effects on mortality. These beta-blocker effects are inferior to those of other antihypertensive drugs. Further research should be of high quality and should explore whether there are differences between different subtypes of beta-blockers or whether beta-blockers have differential effects on younger and older people.
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Calligaro GL, Zijenah LS, Peter JG, Theron G, Buser V, McNerney R, Bara W, Bandason T, Govender U, Tomasicchio M, Smith L, Mayosi BM, Dheda K. Effect of new tuberculosis diagnostic technologies on community-based intensified case finding: a multicentre randomised controlled trial. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2017; 17:441-450. [PMID: 28063795 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30384-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 57] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2016] [Revised: 09/14/2016] [Accepted: 09/19/2016] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Inadequate case detection results in high levels of undiagnosed tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa. Data for the effect of new diagnostic tools when used for community-based intensified case finding are not available, so we investigated whether the use of sputum Xpert-MTB/RIF and the Determine TB LAM urine test in two African communities could be effective. METHODS In a pragmatic, randomised, parallel-group trial with individual randomisation stratified by country, we compared sputum Xpert-MTB/RIF, and if HIV-infected, the Determine TB LAM urine test (novel diagnostic group), with laboratory-based sputum smear microscopy (routine diagnostic group) for intensified case finding in communities with high tuberculosis and HIV prevalence in Cape Town, South Africa, and Harare, Zimbabwe. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to these groups with computer-generated allocation lists, using culture as the reference standard. In Cape Town, participants were randomised and tested at an Xpert-equipped mobile van, while in Harare, participants were driven to a local clinic where the same diagnostic tests were done. The primary endpoint was the proportion of culture-positive tuberculosis cases initiating tuberculosis treatment in each study group at 60 days. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01990274. FINDINGS Between Oct 18, 2013, and March 31, 2015, 2261 individuals were screened and 875 (39%) of these met the criteria for diagnostic testing. 439 participants were randomly assigned to the novel group and 436 to the routine group. 74 (9%) of 875 participants had confirmed tuberculosis. If late culture-based treatment initiation was excluded, more patients with culture-positive tuberculosis were initiated on treatment in the novel group at 60 days (36 [86%] of 42 in the novel group vs 18 [56%] of 32 in the routine group). Thus the difference in the proportion initiating treatment between groups was 29% (95% CI 9-50, p=0·0047) and 53% more patients initiated therapy in the novel diagnostic group than in the routine diagnostic group. One culture-positive patient was treated based only on a positive LAM test. INTERPRETATION Compared with traditional tools, Xpert-MTB/RIF for community-based intensified case finding in HIV and tuberculosis-endemic settings increased the proportion of patients initiating treatment. By contrast, urine LAM testing was not found to be useful for intensive case finding in this setting. FUNDING European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership and South African Medical Research Council.
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Zühlke L, Karthikeyan G, Engel ME, Rangarajan S, Mackie P, Cupido-Katya Mauff B, Islam S, Daniels R, Francis V, Ogendo S, Gitura B, Mondo C, Okello E, Lwabi P, Al-Kebsi MM, Hugo-Hamman C, Sheta SS, Haileamlak A, Daniel W, Goshu DY, Abdissa SG, Desta AG, Shasho BA, Begna DM, ElSayed A, Ibrahim AS, Musuku J, Bode-Thomas F, Yilgwan CC, Amusa GA, Ige O, Okeahialam B, Sutton C, Misra R, Abul Fadl A, Kennedy N, Damasceno A, Sani MU, Ogah OS, Elhassan TOHM, Mocumbi AO, Adeoye AM, Mntla P, Ojji D, Mucumbitsi J, Teo K, Yusuf S, Mayosi BM. Clinical Outcomes in 3343 Children and Adults With Rheumatic Heart Disease From 14 Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Circulation 2016; 134:1456-1466. [DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.116.024769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 160] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2016] [Accepted: 09/20/2016] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Background:
There are few contemporary data on the mortality and morbidity associated with rheumatic heart disease or information on their predictors. We report the 2-year follow-up of individuals with rheumatic heart disease from 14 low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia.
Methods:
Between January 2010 and November 2012, we enrolled 3343 patients from 25 centers in 14 countries and followed them for 2 years to assess mortality, congestive heart failure, stroke or transient ischemic attack, recurrent acute rheumatic fever, and infective endocarditis.
Results:
Vital status at 24 months was known for 2960 (88.5%) patients. Two-thirds were female. Although patients were young (median age, 28 years; interquartile range, 18–40), the 2-year case fatality rate was high (500 deaths, 16.9%). Mortality rate was 116.3/1000 patient-years in the first year and 65.4/1000 patient-years in the second year. Median age at death was 28.7 years. Independent predictors of death were severe valve disease (hazard ratio [HR], 2.36; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.80–3.11), congestive heart failure (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.70–2.72), New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.32–2.10), atrial fibrillation (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.10–1.78), and older age (HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02 per year increase) at enrollment. Postprimary education (HR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54–0.85) and female sex (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.52–0.80) were associated with lower risk of death. Two hundred and four (6.9%) patients had new congestive heart failure (incidence, 38.42/1000 patient-years), 46 (1.6%) had a stroke or transient ischemic attack (8.45/1000 patient-years), 19 (0.6%) had recurrent acute rheumatic fever (3.49/1000 patient-years), and 20 (0.7%) had infective endocarditis (3.65/1000 patient-years). Previous stroke and older age were independent predictors of stroke/transient ischemic attack or systemic embolism. Patients from low- and lower-middle–income countries had significantly higher age- and sex-adjusted mortality than patients from upper-middle–income countries. Valve surgery was significantly more common in upper-middle–income than in lower-middle– or low-income countries.
Conclusions:
Patients with clinical rheumatic heart disease have high mortality and morbidity despite being young; those from low- and lower-middle–income countries had a poorer prognosis associated with advanced disease and low education. Programs focused on early detection and the treatment of clinical rheumatic heart disease are required to improve outcomes.
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Lim SS, Allen K, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Hay SI, Holmberg M, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Larson HJ, Liang X, Lopez AD, Lozano R, McNellan CR, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Olsen HE, Pigott DM, Salomon JA, Vos T, Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed KY, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam U, Alasfoor D, AlBuhairan FS, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alemu ZA, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alkhateeb MAB, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barber R, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Barrientos-Gutierrez T, Basu S, Bayou TA, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff KA, Bikbov B, Binagwaho A, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Broday DM, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cecílio P, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Che X, Chen AZ, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cohen AJ, Cooke GS, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Neves JD, Davis AC, Davletov K, de Castro EF, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Del Gobbo LC, Deribe K, Derrett S, Des Jarlais DC, Deshpande A, deVeber GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felicio MM, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt N, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Gabbe B, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Gessner BD, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin W, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Graetz N, Greenwell KF, Griswold M, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Haakenstad A, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Inoue M, Islami F, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Jansen HAFM, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karunapema P, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim S, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krueger H, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Kyu HH, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lan Q, Langan SM, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, El Razek MMA, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mapoma CC, Margolis DJ, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensink GBM, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, de la Cruz Monis J, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mori R, Mueller UO, Murdoch ME, Murimira B, Murray J, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Neal B, Nejjari C, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ngalesoni FN, Nguhiu P, Nguyen G, Le Nguyen Q, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Park EK, Park HY, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patel V, Caicedo AJP, Patil ST, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Ranganathan K, Rao PC, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Roberts B, Rodriguez A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy N, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Santos JV, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Sawyer SM, Schmidhuber J, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford K, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Levy TS, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shey M, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Sligar A, Soneji S, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soshnikov S, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stahl HC, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steckling N, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stranges S, Strong M, Sun J, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Tarawneh MR, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Tedla BA, Tefera W, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Donkelaar A, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Veerman JL, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Volkow P, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Wanga V, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wolfe I, Won S, Woolf AD, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zegeye EA, Zhao Y, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Murray CJL. Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1813-1850. [PMID: 27665228 PMCID: PMC5055583 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31467-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 31.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2016] [Revised: 08/13/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). METHODS We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. FINDINGS In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59·3 (95% uncertainty interval 56·8-61·8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85·5 (84·2-86·5) in Iceland to 20·4 (15·4-24·9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r2=0·88) and the MDG index (r2=0·92), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r2=0·79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7·9 (IQR 5·0-10·4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10·0 [6·7-13·1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5·5 [2·1-8·9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. INTERPRETATION GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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