Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19.

INTERPRETATION

As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

V. CS. Glycemic status among newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients and their treatment outcomes- A prospective cohort study

Introduction and Aim: Tuberculosis is a serious systemic infection, which is a serious threat for developing countries including India. To address the disease burden, India has rolled out National Tuberculosis Elimination Program (NTEP) incorporating daily drug regimen with appropriate weight bands for treatment. Monitoring treatment outcomes for daily drug regimen with one-year post-treatment follow-up was the objective of the study.   Materials and Methods: A prospective community-based cohort study was conducted between January 2020 and September 2021, in Udupi district. Patients were recruited from 62 different Primary health centres. Their baseline data was collected, glycaemic status was assessed using glycated hemoglobin. The patients were followed up till their treatment completion and one-year post-treatment follow-up was also done.   Results: One hundred and two patients were diagnosed with tuberculosis during the 1st quarter of 2020 (Jan-Mar 2020) and started on daily drug regimen treatment. Favourable outcomes were noted among 107(95.1%), while unfavourable outcomes were noted among 5(4.9%). Females in younger age group and free from comorbidities had favourable outcomes. Older age groups, prediabetics, patients with lower BMI, and pulmonary tuberculosis had unfavourable outcomes.   Conclusion: The daily drug regimen for tuberculosis was found to be effective in terms of reducing the treatment failure rates. Evaluation of glycaemic status using Glycosylated hemoglobin at the time of diagnosis of tuberculosis is desirable. So that, life style modification could be suggested to avoid progression of prediabetes to diabetes. Screening for diabetes using Glycosylated hemoglobin at treatment initiation is advocated to avoid unfavourable outcomes during TB treatment.

Psychological well-being and coping strategies among secondary school teachers: A cross-sectional study

INTRODUCTION

Educators, academicians, and teachers are responsible for the development of the nation's human capital. Teacher coping methods are becoming more widely recognized as a key factor in determining teacher effectiveness. The aim of this study was to identify the various coping strategies adopted by high school teachers in Southern India.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in government, aided, and unaided schools of Udupi, a coastal district in Southern India. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data from 460 high school teachers chosen based on convenience sampling. The coping strategies were identified using a modified version of Brief COPE(Coping Orientation to Problems Experienced) Inventory (Carver, 1997). Data were entered using SPSS version 15 and descriptive statistics was performed.

RESULTS

The study found that teachers had moderate level of coping skills in all domains. The most popular coping techniques used by secondary school teachers were positive reframing, active coping, and planning; nevertheless, substance use was recognized as the least popular coping strategy.

CONCLUSION

Positive reframing, active coping, and preparation were the most commonly used coping strategies by the teachers in the survey. Teachers are a vital resource who have received less attention than they deserve for their psychological well-being. A customized intervention program based on their perceived needs could be a good place to start.

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

BACKGROUND

Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.

METHODS

We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.

RESULTS

In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries.

Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990-2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.

FINDINGS

In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (-28·4 to -2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (-33·0 to -5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (-13·6% [-28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (-13·6% [-29·3 to 8·9]).

INTERPRETATION

Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08-1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45-9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000-279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01-1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000-425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82-1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820-11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300-100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69-5·02), 6·17 (5·48-7·02), and 1·17 (1·07-1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03-2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05-1·08) times greater among females than males.

INTERPRETATION

As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050

BACKGROUND

The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020.

METHODS

We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050.

FINDINGS

In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7-8·8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5-0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0-25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied.

INTERPRETATION

Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Serration pattern analysis as a practical adjunct tool for categorization of subepidermal autoimmune blistering diseases

BACKGROUND

Serration pattern analysis helps in the classification of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders; more precisely, it helps to differentiate epidermolysis bullosa acquisita from other subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders. Most of the published reports of this tool have come from a single center.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives of the study were to study the utility of serration pattern analysis in classifying subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders.

METHODS

Seventy five cases of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders were enrolled in this prospective study. A three millimeter punch biopsy was taken from the perilesional skin or mucosa for direct immunofluorescence; indirect immunofluorescence was carried out using salt-split skin. Subclassification of subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders was done based on direct immunofluorescence, indirect immunofluorescence on salt-split skin, indirect immunofluorescence using knockout skin and serration pattern analysis findings.

RESULTS

Indirect immunofluorescence was positive in 68 cases; 14 cases showed a dermal staining pattern while the rest showed either an epidermal or a combined pattern. All patients with epidermal or combined staining patterns showed "n" serrated pattern on direct immunofluorescence. Nine patients with dermal staining on indirect immunofluorescence also revealed an "n" serration pattern on direct immunofluorescence indicating the diagnosis of anti-p200 pemphigoid, and the rest showed a "u" serrated pattern. Three patients with negative indirect immunofluorescence showed "u" serration on direct immunofluorescence while the rest showed "n" serration.

LIMITATIONS

ELISA and immunoblotting could not be performed due to resource constraints.

CONCLUSION

Based on indirect immunofluorescence and serration pattern analysis, classification of the majority of patients with subepidermal autoimmune blistering disorders was possible in our study. Pattern recognition is a cost-effective tool and can be easily learnt. It is recommended to be practiced in all laboratories where facilities for advanced immunological diagnosis are unavailable.

SMART STEP - SMARTphone-driven exercise and pedometer-based STEP intervention to promote physical activity among desk-based employees: Study protocol for a three-arm cluster randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Prolonged sitting in desk-based office workers is found to be associated with increased cardiometabolic risk and poor cognitive performance. Technology-based physical activity (PA) interventions using smartphone applications (SmPh app) to promote PA levels might be effective in reducing cardiometabolic risk among sedentary population but the evidence remains inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

The objective is to investigate the effects of a technology-based PA intervention compared to PA education with a worksite manual or no intervention on PA levels, cardiometabolic risk, cognitive performance, and work productivity among desk-based employees.

METHOD

A three-arm clustered randomized trial will be conducted. The study will be conducted among various administrative offices of a multifaceted university in India. Desk-based employees aged between 30 and 50 years (n = 159; 53 in each arm) will be recruited. Employees from various constituent institutions (clusters) of the university will be randomized into one of the three following groups - SMART: SmPh app-driven break reminders (visual exercise prompts) plus pedometer-based step intervention, TRADE: worksite PA education with a manual plus American College of Sports Medicine guided PA prescription, or CONTROL: usual work group. At baseline and after the 1st, 3rd and 6th month of the trial period, accelerometer-measured sitting time and PA levels, cardiometabolic risk (fasting blood glucose, triglycerides, insulin, blood pressure, heart rate variability, functional capacity, and subcutaneous fat), cognitive performance (executive function), sickness absenteeism and work limitations will be assessed by a blinded assessor. Therapist delivering interventions will not be blinded.

CONCLUSION

This trial will determine whether a combined SmPh-app and pedometer-based intervention is more effective than education or no intervention in altering PA levels, cardiometabolic risk and cognitive performance among desk-based employees in India. This study has the potential to foster institutional recommendations for using SmPh-based technology and pedometers to promote PA and reduce sedentary behavior at work.

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

BACKGROUND

Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time.

METHODS

For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development.

FINDINGS

By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4-82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5-42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4-41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3-84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4-44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4-81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6-60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4-15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019.

INTERPRETATION

After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Economic burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus management: Epidemiological determinants from a coastal community of Southern India

Expenditure on diabetes mellitus is increasing worldwide and is determined by multiple factors and knowledge about these factors may help to improve patient management and reduce health-care cost. The present study aims to determine the factors influencing the expenditure incurred by patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 809 patients with T2DM from a coastal community in Southern India. Expenditure incurred for the management of T2DM in the previous year was collected using a predesigned survey tool. Duration of disease, source of diabetes care, presence of comorbidities, hospitalization, and adherence to medications were studied as potential cost predictors. Age, gender, education, occupation, and socioeconomic status as key determinants were evaluated. Expenditure incurred by patients with T2DM was estimated to be INR 5041 (2516-11,224) annually while the presence of comorbidities led to higher expenditure, INR 9133 (4034-19,053). Medication and hospitalization were the major drivers of direct cost. Subjects visiting private health facilities had a higher median cost with respect to diabetes-related care. Advancing age, male gender, high socioeconomic status, higher literacy, and longer duration of diabetes were identified as significant independent predictors of cost on multivariate analysis. The high cost of diabetes supports the need for strengthening public and private primary care facilities to provide standard care for diabetes.

Are free workplace health promotion apps adequately mapped with behavior change theories, techniques and desired features? A content analysis

Free smartphone applications that aim to promote physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior at workplaces were questioned for its content such as technical features, behavior change techniques (BCT) and security concerns. To evaluate systematically whether smartphone apps are mapped adequately with BCTs and security concerns. Free apps in Google Play store were searched and coded for BCTs systematically in July 2020. Two reviewers independently coded apps that aimed to promote physical activity (n = 18) and reduce sedentary behavior (n = 16) using a taxonomy of 26 BCTs. BCTs, features and security concerns among apps promoting physical activity and reducing sedentary behavior were analyzed. While the features (social support, gamification, or rewards) help increase physical activity and decrease sedentary behavior, the apps do not typically include the above features. Further, the apps were based on an average of 13 (4-21) BCTs. The BCTs coded most frequently were "self-monitoring" (100%), "general encouragement" (97%), and "goal setting" (n = 94%). No significant relation between user rating and BCTs was found in the apps. Majority of the free apps that aimed to increase physical activity or reduce sedentary behavior at workplaces were not adequately based on BCTs and lacked essential features facilitating long term behavior compliance at workplaces. Hence, there is a need to develop newer applications mapped adequately with BCTs, involving the collaborative work of behavioral scientists, app developers and policymakers. Clinical Trial Registry of India CTRI/2020/03/024138.

Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability.

METHODS

We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050.

FINDINGS

An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51-1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5-21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3-449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7-479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3-142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2-63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35-2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3-65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence.

INTERPRETATION

As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.

Predictors of psychological well-being among high school teachers: A cross-sectional study from Southern India

Background: Well-being is increasingly emerging as an important determinant of teacher effectiveness. Aim and objective: To assess the predictors of psychological well-being in Southern India. Settings and design: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 460 high school teachers from government and private schools in Udupi district. Methods and materials: Ryff’s psychological well-being scale (1989) was used. Statistical analysis used: Predictors were identified using logistic regression and p<0.05 was considered to be statistically significant Results: Autonomy, personal growth, positive relations, purpose in life and self-acceptance emerged as predictors of psychological well-being. Age predicted the subdomain of autonomy; number and age of children predicted environmental mastery; gender, monthly income and travelling time of teachers predicted the subdomain of self-acceptance among teachers. Conclusion: Teachers are an important resource whose psychological well-being has not received the attention it is due. An intervention program designed to fit their felt needs may be a step in the right direction.

Effect of maternal perceived stress during pregnancy on gestational diabetes mellitus risk: A prospective case-control study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A variety of risk factors have been reported for the development of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). But limited review on the role of antenatal perceived stress necessitated the design of the present study to evaluate the association between GDM and perceived stress during pregnancy.

METHODS

A prospective case-control study was carried out among 100 GDM cases and 273 matched controls, attending regular antenatal clinic at two private hospitals of Karnataka. Data was collected by personal interviews using a standard questionnaire. Perceived stress was assessed using the Cohen 10-item Perceived Stress Scale. Score of ≥20 was identified as high stress. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 15 was used for analysis.

RESULTS

Exposure rates for high maternal perceived stress among cases during pregnancy were noted. The odds of GDM were 13 folds higher among those with high antenatal stress (≥20) compared to those with low (<20) (p < 0.001) perceived stress. No correlation between maternal antenatal stress and blood glucose following OGTT was noted.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified high perceived stress during pregnancy as a potential risk factor for GDM.

Prevalence of Maternal Measles Antibody and Its Associated Factors among Infants in Coastal Karnataka, India

BACKGROUND

The current recommendation in India to commence first dose of measles immunization is at 9 months of age. The effectiveness of measles vaccination is greatly impacted by the level of maternal measles antibody (MMA) during infancy.

OBJECTIVES

To find the prevalence of MMA and to study the maternal and infant factors associated with persistence of MMA among the infants in a Indian rural community.

METHODOLOGY

Dried blood spot sample was collected before vaccination among infants aged 9 months and above when they came for first dose of measles vaccine to assess measles-specific maternal IgG antibody titers by enzyme immunoassay. Maternal and child factors influencing persistence of MMA were collected by interviewing the mothers. Association between various factors affecting seropositivity was tested using univariate logistic regression analysis and strength of association is reported as risk ratio with 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

Based on the qualitative estimation among all the recruited children (250) in the study, 4 (1.6%) infants showed the presence of MMA whereas 25 (10%) of children had MMA on quantitative estimation. The effect of maternal factors, child nutrition, and sociodemographic factors on the presence of MMA was not found to be statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of persistent MMA (IgG titer ≥200 mIU/ml) among the infants aged 9-12 months was 10%. The choice of vaccinating infants at the end of 9 months for the first dose of measles vaccine is justified as the remaining (90%) of infants were susceptible for measles infection at this age.

Goiter Prevalence and Interrelated Components from Coastal Karnataka

OBJECTIVE

To assess prevalence of goiter and associated factors among school going children in Udupi district.

METHODS

A school based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 6-12 year old children. A sample of 30 villages was selected from the entire district by probability proportionate to size. One school was then randomly selected from each of the 30 villages. Goiter was assessed clinically and was graded as per the recommended criteria of World Health Organization (WHO)/ United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF)/ International Council for the Control of Iodine Deficiency Disorders (ICCIDD). Salt and urine samples were collected from a subsample for iodine estimation.

RESULTS

A total of 2703 children were examined. The mean (±SD) age of the participants was 9.6 y (±1.9). The overall prevalence of goiter in Udupi district was found to be 9.3% with 7.0% and 2.3% having grade 1 and grade 2 goiter respectively. Prevalence of goiter was significantly higher among females [153(11.1%)] as compared to males [98(7.4%)] (p = 0.001). Of the 543 salt samples analyzed, 379 (69.8%) salt samples had adequate salt iodine content (> 15 ppm); while among the children with goiter 32 (8.4%) had inadequate salt iodine. Median iodine value was 202.12 mcg/l among the 270 urine samples tested for iodine levels.

CONCLUSION

Goiter prevalence at 9.3% in the coastal district contributes to the endemicity of the public health problem. The district had adequate iodine nutrition based on median urinary iodine levels. Hence, other contributing factors for the persistence of endemic goiter need to be explored.