Test of Causal Nonlinear Quantum Mechanics by Ramsey Interferometry with a Trapped Ion

Quantum mechanics requires the time evolution of the wave function to be linear. While this feature has been associated with the preservation of causality, a consistent causal nonlinear theory was recently developed. Interestingly, this theory is unavoidably sensitive to the full physical spread of the wave function, rendering existing experimental tests for nonlinearities inapplicable. Here, using well-controlled motional superpositions of a trapped ion, we set a stringent limit of 5.4×10^{-12} on the magnitude of the unitless scaling factor ε[over ˜]_{γ} for the predicted causal nonlinear perturbation.

Ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 infection and reduced severity of COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Studies have demonstrated that reducing farnesoid X receptor activity with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) downregulates angiotensin-converting enzyme in human lung, intestinal and cholangiocytes organoids in vitro, in human lungs and livers perfused ex situ, reducing internalization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) into the host cell. This offers a potential novel target against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The objective of our study was to compare the association between UDCA exposure and SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as varying severities of COVID-19, in a large national cohort of participants with cirrhosis.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study among participants with cirrhosis in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver cohort, we compared participants with exposure to UDCA, with a propensity score (PS) matched group of participants without UDCA exposure, matched for clinical characteristics, and vaccination status. The outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic, at least moderate, severe, or critical COVID-19, and COVID-19-related death.

RESULTS

We compared 1607 participants with cirrhosis who were on UDCA, with 1607 PS-matched controls. On multivariable logistic regression, UDCA exposure was associated with reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-0.71, p < 0.0001). Among patients who developed COVID-19, UDCA use was associated with reduced disease severity, including symptomatic COVID-19 (aOR 0.54, 95% CI 0.39-0.73, p < 0.0001), at least moderate COVID-19 (aOR 0.51, 95% CI 0.32-0.81, p = 0.005), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25-0.94, p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, UDCA exposure was associated with both a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infection, and reduction in symptomatic, at least moderate, and severe/critical COVID-19.

The association between mental illness and all-cause mortality in patients with cirrhosis: a Veterans Affairs retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Mental health diagnoses are common and known to impact key outcomes in patients with chronic illnesses including cirrhosis. However, the independent impact of psychiatric comorbidities on mortality in these patients and potential mitigating effects of outpatient mental health-related care has not been well characterized.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2021. Adjusted Cox regression was performed to evaluate the association between mental health-related diagnoses [groups: alcohol use disorder (AUD)/substance use disorder (SUD) alone, non-AUD/SUD alone, and any mental health diagnosis (AUD/SUD or non-AUD/SUD)] and all-cause mortality. In subgroup analyses, the impact of regular outpatient mental health visits was also assessed.

RESULTS

We identified 115,409 patients, 81.7% of whom had any mental health diagnosis at baseline. During the study window there was a significant increase in the number of mental health clinic visits per person-year (β=0.078, 95% CI: 0.065-0.092, p < 0.001), but a decrease in AUD/SUD clinic utilization (p < 0.001). In regression models, there was a 54% increased hazard in all-cause mortality for any mental health diagnosis, 11% for non-AUD/SUD, and 44% for AUD/SUD (each p < 0.001). Regular mental health visits resulted in a 21% decreased risk in all-cause mortality for AUD/SUD diagnosis, compared with 3% and 9% for any mental health diagnosis and non-AUD/SUD diagnosis, respectively (each p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Mental illness is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality in veterans with cirrhosis. Regular outpatient mental health care may be protective against all-cause mortality, particularly among patients with AUD/SUD. Future studies should focus on relevant clinical practice changes, including implementing integrated care programs.

Medications for alcohol use disorder improve survival in patients with hazardous drinking and alcohol-associated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Medications for alcohol use disorder (MAUD) are highly effective in achieving and maintaining abstinence in patients with alcohol use disorder (AUD). Our aim was to evaluate the effect of MAUD on all-cause mortality in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and active alcohol use.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis and high-risk alcohol use disorder in the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) database. Propensity score matching for exposure to MAUD (acamprosate or naltrexone) within a year after cirrhosis diagnosis was performed to account for potential confounders, and the association between MAUD and all-cause mortality was subsequently evaluated using Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 9131 patients were included, of whom 886 (9.7%) were exposed to MAUD (naltrexone: 520, acamprosate: 307, both medications: 59). The duration of MAUD exposure was >3 months in 345 patients (39%). The strongest positive predictor of MAUD prescription was an inpatient diagnosis code for AUD, followed by a concurrent diagnosis of depression; the strongest negative predictor was a history of cirrhosis decompensation. After propensity score matching (866 patients in each group) with excellent covariate balance (absolute standardized mean differences <0.1), MAUD exposure was associated with improved survival, with an HR of 0.80 relative to no MAUD exposure (95% CI: 0.67-0.97, p = 0.024).

CONCLUSION

MAUD are underutilized in patients with alcohol-associated cirrhosis with high-risk alcohol use behavior but are associated with improved survival after adjustment for confounders such as the severity of liver disease, age, and engagement in the healthcare system.

Type of Infection Is Associated with Prognosis in Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A National Veterans Health Administration Study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome in patients with cirrhosis with high short-term mortality. Infection is a frequent precipitant of ACLF; however, it is unclear if prognosis varies by difference infectious sources. To address this knowledge gap, we utilized a large national database of patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis in the Veterans Health Administration between 2008 and 2016. First ACLF hospitalizations were identified and infections were classified using validated algorithms, categorized as bacteremia, fungal, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), pyelonephritis/urinary tract infection, or skin and soft tissue/musculoskeletal infection (SST/MSK). Inverse probability treatment weighing for infection-associated ACLF followed by multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection type and 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total 22,589 ACLF hospitalizations were included, 3998 (17.7%) of which had ACLF grade 3. Infection was associated with 12,405 (54.9%) of ACLF hospitalizations. In regression models, SBP was associated with a 1.79-fold increased odds of 90-day mortality vs. no infection (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.58-2.02, p < 0.001), whereas SST/MSK infections had a lower relative odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.48, 95% CI 0.42-0.53, p < 0.001). There was a significant interaction between infection category and ACLF grade on the outcome of 90-day mortality (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The impact of infection on short-term mortality in ACLF varies depending on the source of infection. This has relevance for ACLF prognostication and challenges previous notions that bacterial infection invariably worsens prognosis among all patients with ACLF.

Association Between Bariatric Surgery and Alcohol Use-Related Hospitalization and All-Cause Mortality in a Veterans Affairs Cohort

Importance

Bariatric surgery procedures, in particular Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), have been associated with subsequent alcohol-related complications. However, previous studies lack data to account for changes in body mass index (BMI) or alcohol use over time, which are key potential confounders.

Objective

To evaluate the association between RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding on subsequent alcohol use disorder (AUD)-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality as compared with referral to a weight management program alone.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included 127 Veterans Health Administration health centers in the US. Patients who underwent RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding or who were referred to MOVE!, a weight management program, and had a BMI (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 30 or greater between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2021, were included in the study.

Exposures

RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy, or gastric banding or referral to the MOVE! program.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was time to AUD-related hospitalization from the time of bariatric surgery or MOVE! referral. The secondary outcome was time to all-cause mortality. Separate propensity scores were created for each pairwise comparison (RYGB vs MOVE! program, RYGB vs sleeve gastrectomy, sleeve gastrectomy vs MOVE!). Sequential Cox regression approaches were used for each pairwise comparison to estimate the relative hazard of the primary outcome in unadjusted, inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW)-adjusted (generated from the pairwise logistic regression models), and IPTW-adjusted approaches with additional adjustment for time-updating BMI and categorical Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise scores.

Results

A total of 1854 patients received RYGB (median [IQR] age, 53 [45-60] years; 1294 men [69.8%]), 4211 received sleeve gastrectomy (median [IQR] age, 52 [44-59] years; 2817 men [66.9%]), 265 received gastric banding (median [IQR] age, 55 [46-61] years; 199 men [75.1%]), and 1364 were referred to MOVE! (median [IQR] age, 59 [49-66] years; 1175 men [86.1%]). In IPTW Cox regression analyses accounting for time-updating alcohol use and BMI, RYGB was associated with an increased hazard of AUD-related hospitalization vs MOVE! (hazard ratio [HR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.20-2.41; P = .003) and vs sleeve gastrectomy (HR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.55-2.53; P < .001). There was no significant difference between sleeve gastrectomy and MOVE! (HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.56-1.03; P = .08). While RYGB was associated with a reduced mortality risk vs MOVE! (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.49-0.81; P < .001), this association was mitigated by increasing alcohol use over time.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that RYGB was associated with an increased risk of AUD-related hospitalizations vs both sleeve gastrectomy and the MOVE! program. The mortality benefit associated with RYGB was diminished by increased alcohol use, highlighting the importance of careful patient selection and alcohol-related counseling for patients undergoing this procedure.

Patterns of Care Utilization and Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance: Tracking Care Across the Pandemic

INTRODUCTION

We studied longitudinal trends in mortality, outpatient, and inpatient care for cirrhosis in a national cohort in the first 2 years of the coronavirus disease-2019 pandemic. We evaluated trends in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance and factors associated with completion.

METHODS

Within the national cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Administration from 2020 to 2021, we captured mortality, outpatient primary care provider, gastroenterology/hepatology (GI/HEP) visits, and hospitalizations. HCC surveillance was computed as percentage of time up to date with surveillance every 6 months (PTUDS). Multivariable models for PTUDS were adjusted for patient demographics, clinical factors, and facility-level variables.

RESULTS

The total cohort was 68,073; 28,678 were eligible for HCC surveillance. Outpatient primary care provider and GI/HEP appointment rates initially dropped from 30% to 7% with a rebound 1 year into the pandemic and steady subsequent use. Telemedicine monthly visit rates rose from less than 10% to a peak of 20% with a steady gradual decline. Nearly 70% of Veterans were up to date with HCC surveillance before the pandemic with an early pandemic nadir of approximately 50% and 60% PTUDS 2 years into the pandemic. In adjusted models, use of a population-based cirrhosis dashboard (β 8.5, 95% CI 6.9-10.2) and GI/HEP visits both in-person (β 3.2, 95% CI 2.9-3.6) and telemedicine (β 2.1, 95% CI 1.9-2.4) were associated with a higher PTUDS.

DISCUSSION

Outpatient utilization and HCC surveillance rates have rebounded but remain below at baseline. Population-based approaches and specialty care for cirrhosis were associated with a higher completion of HCC surveillance.

Nonselective beta blockers, hepatic decompensation, and mortality in cirrhosis: A national cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Little is known about the effectiveness of nonselective beta blockers (NSBBs) in preventing hepatic decompensation in routine clinical settings. We investigated whether NSBBs are associated with hepatic decompensation or liver-related mortality in a national cohort of veterans with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) A cirrhosis with no prior decompensations.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

In an active comparator, new user (ACNU) design, we created a cohort of new users of carvedilol ( n = 123) versus new users of selective beta blockers (SBBs) ( n = 561) and followed patients for up to 3 years. An inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) approach balanced demographic and clinical confounders. The primary analysis simulated intention-to-treat ("pseudo-ITT") with IPTW-adjusted Cox models; secondary analyses were pseudo-as-treated, and both were adjusted for baseline and time-updating drug confounders. Subgroup analyses evaluated NSBB effects by HCV viremia status, CTP class, platelet count, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) etiology, and age. In pseudo-ITT analyses of carvedilol versus SBBs, carvedilol was associated with a lower hazard of any hepatic decompensation (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.42-0.83) and the composite outcome of hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.76). Results were similar in pseudo-as-treated analyses (hepatic decompensation: HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.33-0.94; composite outcome: HR 0.62, 95% 0.38-1.01). In subgroup analyses, carvedilol was associated with lower hazard of primary outcomes in the absence of HCV viremia, higher CTP class and platelet count, younger age, and ALD etiology.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an ongoing need to noninvasively identify patients who may benefit from NSBBs for the prevention of hepatic decompensation.

Experimental Limit on Nonlinear State-Dependent Terms in Quantum Theory

Linear time evolution is one of the fundamental postulates of quantum theory. Past theoretical attempts to introduce nonlinearity into quantum evolution have violated causality. However, a recent theory has introduced nonlinear state-dependent terms in quantum field theory, preserving causality [D. E. Kaplan and S. Rajendran, Phys. Rev. D 105, 055002 (2022)PRVDAQ2470-001010.1103/PhysRevD.105.055002]. We report the results of an experiment that searches for such terms. Our approach, inspired by the Everett many-worlds interpretation of quantum theory, correlates a binary macroscopic classical voltage with the outcome of a projective measurement of a quantum bit, prepared in a coherent superposition state. Measurement results are recorded in a bit string, which is used to control a voltage switch. Presence of a nonzero voltage reading in cases of no applied voltage is the experimental signature of a nonlinear state-dependent shift of the electromagnetic field operator. We implement blinded measurement and data analysis with three control bit strings. Control of systematic effects is realized by producing one of the control bit strings with a classical random-bit generator. The other two bit strings are generated by measurements performed on a superconducting qubit in an IBM Quantum processor and on a ^{15}N nuclear spin in a nitrogen-vacancy center in diamond. Our measurements find no evidence for electromagnetic quantum state-dependent nonlinearity. We set a bound on the parameter that quantifies this nonlinearity |ε_{γ}|<4.7×10^{-11}, at 90% confidence level.

Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BACKGROUND

Liver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.

RESULTS

A total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.

CONCLUSION

The VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.

Comparison of infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 can be infection or vaccine-induced. Cirrhosis is associated with vaccine hyporesponsiveness, but whether there is decreased immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection in unvaccinated patients with cirrhosis is unknown.The objective of our study was to compare infection-induced and vaccine-induced immunity against COVID-19 among patients with cirrhosis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study among US Veterans with cirrhosis between November 27, 2020, and November 16, 2021, comparing a vaccine-induced immunity group, defined as participants without a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection but fully vaccinated with two doses of an mRNA vaccine, and infection-associated immunity group, defined as unvaccinated participants who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Both groups were propensity score matched for observed characteristics, including location, and the date of the immunity acquiring event, to control for the community prevalence of COVID-19 variants. The outcome was a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR more than 60 days after previous infection in the infection-induced, or after full vaccination in the vaccine-induced immunity group.

RESULTS

We compared 634 participants in the infection-induced immunity group with 27,131 participants in the vaccine-induced immunity group using inverse propensity of treatment weighting. Vaccine-induced immunity was associated with a reduced odds of developing SARS-CoV-2 infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.20, p < 0.0001). On multivariable logistic regression, vaccine-induced immunity was associated with reduced odds of developing symptomatic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.36; 95% CI, 0.33-0.41, p < 0.0001), moderate/severe/critical (aOR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.22-0.31, p < 0.0001), and severe or critical COVID-19 (aOR, 0.20; 95% CI, 0.16-0.26, p < 0.001), compared with infection-induced immunity.

CONCLUSIONS

In participants with cirrhosis, vaccine-induced immunity is associated with reduced risk of developing COVID-19, compared with infection-induced immunity.

Circulating messenger RNA variants as a potential biomarker for surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma

Background and rationale

Liver derived messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) transcripts were reported to be elevated in the circulation of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. We now report the detection of high-risk mRNA variants exclusively in the circulation of HCC patients. Numerous genomic alleles such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), nucleotide insertions and deletions (called Indels), splicing variants in many genes, have been associated with elevated risk of cancer. Our findings potentially offer a novel non-invasive platform for HCC surveillance and early detection.

Approach

RNAseq analysis was carried out in the plasma of 14 individuals with a diagnosis of HCC, 8 with LC and no HCC, and 6 with no liver disease diagnosis. RNA from 6 matching tumors and 5 circulating extracellular vesicle (EV) samples from 14 of those with HCC was also analyzed. Specimens from two cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) patients were also included in our study. HCC specific SNPs and Indels referred as "variants" were identified using GATK HaplotypeCaller and annotated by SnpEff to filter out high risk variants.

Results

The variant calling on all RNA samples enabled the detection of 5.2 million SNPs, 0.91 million insertions and 0.81 million deletions. RNAseq analyses in tumors, normal liver tissue, plasma, and plasma derived EVs led to the detection of 5480 high-risk tumor specific mRNA variants in the circulation of HCC patients. These variants are concurrently detected in tumors and plasma samples or tumors and EVs from HCC patients, but none of these were detected in normal liver, plasma of LC patients or normal healthy individuals. Our results demonstrate selective detection of concordant high-risk HCC-specific mRNA variants in free plasma, plasma derived EVs and tumors of HCC patients. The variants comprise of splicing, frameshift, fusion and single nucleotide alterations and correspond to cancer and tumor metabolism pathways. Detection of these high-risk variants in matching specimens from same subjects with an enrichment in circulating EVs is remarkable. Validation of these HCC selective ctmRNA variants in larger patient cohorts is likely to identify a predictive set of ctmRNA with high diagnostic performance and thus offer a novel non-invasive serology-based biomarker for HCC.

Development and validation of case-finding algorithms to identify acute pancreatitis in the Veterans Health Administration

PURPOSE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a frequently encountered adverse drug reaction. However, the validity of diagnostic codes for AP is unknown. We aimed to determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of a diagnostic code-based algorithm for identifying patients with AP within the US Veterans Health Administration and evaluate the value of adding readily available structured laboratory information.

METHODS

We identified patients with possible AP events first based on the presence of a single hospital discharge ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis of AP (Algorithm 1). We then expanded Algorithm 1 by including relevant laboratory test results (Algorithm 2). Specifically, we considered amylase or lipase serum values obtained between 2 days before admission and the end of the hospitalization. Medical records of a random sample of patients identified by the respective algorithms were reviewed by two separate gastroenterologists to adjudicate AP events. The PPV (95% confidence interval [CI]) for the algorithms were calculated.

RESULTS

Algorithm 2, consisting of one ICD-9 or ICD-10 hospital discharge diagnosis of AP and the addition of lipase serum value ≥200 U/L, had a PPV 89.1% (95% CI 83.0%-95.2%), improving from the PPV of algorithm 1 (57.9% [95% CI 46.8-69.0]).

CONCLUSIONS

An algorithm consisting of an ICD-9 or ICD-10 diagnosis of AP with a lipase value ≥200 U/L achieved high PPV. This simple algorithm can be readily implemented in any electronic health records (EHR) systems and could be useful for future pharmacoepidemiologic studies on AP.

Dark Solar Wind

We study the solar emission of light dark sector particles that self-interact strongly enough to self-thermalize. The resulting outflow behaves like a fluid which accelerates under its own thermal pressure to highly relativistic bulk velocities in the solar system. Compared to the ordinary noninteracting scenario, the local outflow has at least ∼10^{3} higher number density and correspondingly at least ∼10^{3} lower average energy per particle. We show how this generic phenomenon arises in a dark sector composed of millicharged particles strongly self-interacting via a dark photon. The millicharged plasma wind emerging in this model has novel yet predictive signatures that encourages new experimental directions. This phenomenon demonstrates how a small step away from the simplest models can lead to radically different outcomes and thus motivates a broader search for dark sector particles.

ACR Appropriateness Criteria® Management of Liver Cancer: 2022 Update

The treatment and management of hepatic malignancies can be complex because it encompasses a variety of primary and metastatic malignancies and an assortment of local and systemic treatment options. When to use each of these treatments is critical to ensure the most appropriate care for patients. Interventional radiologists have a key role to play in the delivery of a variety of liver directed treatments including percutaneous ablation, transarterial embolization with bland embolic particles alone, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with injection of a chemotherapeutic emulsion, and transarterial radioembolization (TARE). Based on 9 clinical variants, the appropriateness of each treatment is described in this document. The ACR Appropriateness Criteria are evidence-based guidelines for specific clinical conditions that are reviewed annually by a multidisciplinary expert panel. The guideline development and revision process support the systematic analysis of the medical literature from peer reviewed journals. Established methodology principles such as Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation or GRADE are adapted to evaluate the evidence. The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method User Manual provides the methodology to determine the appropriateness of imaging and treatment procedures for specific clinical scenarios. In those instances in which peer reviewed literature is lacking or equivocal, experts may be the primary evidentiary source available to formulate a recommendation.

Third dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine appears to overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhosis is associated with immune dysregulation and hyporesponsiveness to several vaccines including those against COVID-19. Our aim was to compare outcomes between patients with cirrhosis who received 3 doses of either the Pfizer BNT162b2 mRNA or Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines to a propensity-matched control group of patients at similar risk of infection who received 2 doses.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who received 2 or 3 doses of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine at the Veterans Health Administration. Participants who received 3 doses of the vaccine (n = 13,041) were propensity score matched with 13,041 controls who received 2 doses, and studied between July 18, 2021 and February 11, 2022, when B.1.617.2 (delta) and B.1.1.529 (omicron) were the predominant variants. Outcomes were aggregated as all cases with COVID-19, symptomatic COVD-19, with at least moderate COVID-19, or severe or critical COVID-19.

RESULTS

Receipt of the third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with an 80.7% reduction in COVID-19 (95% CI 39.2-89.1, p <0.001), an 80.4% reduction in symptomatic COVID-19, an 80% reduction in moderate, severe or critical COVID-19, (95% CI 34.5-87.6%, p = 0.005), a 100% reduction in severe or critical COVID-19 (95% CI 99.2-100.0, p = 0.01), and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death (95% CI 99.8-100.0, p = 0.007). The magnitude of reduction in COVID-19 was greater with the third dose of BNT 162b2 than mRNA-1273 and among participants with compensated rather than decompensated cirrhosis.

CONCLUSIONS

Administration of a third dose of a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine was associated with a more significant reduction in COVID-19 in patients with cirrhosis than in the general population, suggesting that the third dose can overcome vaccine hyporesponsiveness in this population.

LAY SUMMARY

Cirrhosis is associated with decreased responsiveness to several vaccines, including those against COVID-19. In this study of 26,082 participants with cirrhosis during the delta and omicron surge, receipt of the third dose of the vaccine was associated with an 80% reduction in COVID-19, a 100% reduction in severe/critical COVID-19, and a 100% reduction in COVID-19-related death. These findings support the importance of a third dose of mRNA vaccine among patients with cirrhosis.

Cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals for chronic hepatitis C virus in the United States from a payer perspective

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been a breakthrough therapeutic innovation in the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) with significantly improved efficacy, safety, and tolerability. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating patients with HCV with DAAs compared with pre-DAAs or no treatment over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the US Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system. METHODS: A hybrid decision-tree and Markov model simulated the health outcomes of a cohort of 142,147 patients with HCV with an average age of 63 years. Demographic data, treatment rates and distribution, treatment efficacy by subpopulation, and health state costs were sourced from VA data. Treatment costs and utility values were sourced from publicly available databases and prior publications for older regimens. RESULTS: Over a lifetime horizon, the use of DAAs results in a significant reduction in advanced liver disease events compared with pre-DAA and no treatment. Total cost savings of $7 and $9 billion over a lifetime horizon (50 years) were predicted for patients who received DAA treatments compared with patients treated with pre-DAA treatments and those who were untreated, respectively. Cost savings were achieved quickly after treatment, with DAAs being inexpensive when compared with both the pre-DAA and untreated scenarios within 5 years. The DAA intervention dominated (ie, more effective and less costly) for both the pre-DAA and untreated strategies on both a per-patient and cohort basis. CONCLUSIONS: The use of DAA-based treatments in patients with HCV in the VA system significantly reduced long-term HCV-related morbidity and mortality, while providing cost savings within only 5 years of treatment. DISCLOSURES: This work was supported by Gilead Inc. Health Economic Outcomes Research group, grant number GS-US-18-HCV003. Drs Yehoshua and Kaushik are employees of Gilead in the Health Economic Outcome Research group. These individuals reviewed the manuscript but did not contribute to input or output of the Markov model. Maple Health Group (Dr El-Moustaid, Ms Raad, and Dr Smith) are consultants hired by Gilead for Markov modeling expertise. The model used in this study was previously published and peer reviewed. Data inputted into the model related to patient demographic, treatment outcomes, clinical outcomes, and costs were completely independent in derivation by Drs Kaplan, Serper, and Durkin and were not influenced by the funding sponsor. Dr Kaplan reports grants from Gilead Inc. during the conduct of the study and grants from Gilead Inc., other from Glycotest Inc., other from AstraZeneca, other from Exact Sciences, and other from Bayer outside the submitted work.

Impact of NAFLD on clinical outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib: an international cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) on overall survival (OS), treatment response and toxicity in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with sorafenib is unknown. We examined the impact of NAFLD on survival and toxicity in an international cohort of patients receiving sorafenib.

METHODS

Clinical and demographic data were collected from patients consecutively treated at specialist centres in Europe and North America. The impact of NAFLD on OS, sorafenib-specific survival and toxicity compared with other aetiologies of liver disease using multivariable Cox-proportional hazards and logistic regression modelling was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 5201 patients received sorafenib; 183 (3.6%) had NAFLD-associated HCC. NAFLD-associated HCC patients were more likely to be older women (median age 65.8 versus 63.0 years, p < 0.01 and 10.4% versus 2.3%, < 0.01), with a median body mass index (BMI) of 29.4. After controlling for known prognostic factors, no difference in OS in patients with or without NAFLD was observed [hazard ratio (HR): 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.84-1.18, p = 0.98]. NAFLD-associated patients had more advanced stage HCC when they commenced sorafenib [Barcelona Clinic Liver Class (BCLC) C/D 70.9% versus 58.9%, p < 0.01] and were more likely to be commenced on a lower starting dose of sorafenib (51.4 versus 36.4%, p < 0.01). There was no difference in sorafenib-specific survival between NAFLD and other aetiologies (HR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.79-1.17, p = 0.96). Adverse events were similar between NAFLD and non-NAFLD HCC groups, including rates of greater than grade 2 hypertension (6.3% versus 5.8%, p = 1.00).

CONCLUSION

Survival in HCC does not appear to be influenced by the presence of NAFLD. NAFLD-associated HCC derive similar clinical benefit from sorafenib compared with other aetiologies.

Modeling Optimal Clinical Thresholds for Elective Abdominal Hernia Repair in Patients With Cirrhosis

IMPORTANCE

Patients with cirrhosis have increased risk of postoperative mortality. Several models have been developed to estimate this risk; however, current risk estimation scores cannot compare surgical risk with the risk of not operating.

OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical optimal thresholds to favor operative or nonoperative management for a common cirrhosis surgical scenario, the symptomatic abdominal hernia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a Markov cohort decision analytical modeling study evaluating elective surgery vs nonoperative management for a symptomatic abdominal hernia in a patient with cirrhosis. Transition probabilities and utilities were derived from the literature and from data using an established cirrhosis cohort in the Veterans Health Administration. Participants included patients who were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia. Data were obtained from patients diagnosed with cirrhosis between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2018. Data were analyzed from January 1 to May 1, 2022.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Expected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each pathway and iterated over baseline model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) scores ranging from 6 to 25. Markov models were cycled over a 5-year time horizon.

RESULTS

A total 2740 patients with cirrhosis (median [IQR] age, 62 [56-66] years; 2699 [98.5%] men) were referred to a surgery clinic for a symptomatic abdominal hernia; 1752 patients (63.9%) did not receive surgery. The median (IQR) follow-up was 42.1 (25.3-70.0) months. Using this cohort to estimate the mortality risk of operative and nonoperative pathways, an initial MELD-Na threshold of 21.3 points, below which surgery was associated with maximized QALYs was identified. Nonoperative management was associated with increased QALYs above this MELD-Na threshold. Although more patients experienced death with a surgical treatment decision across all initial MELD-Na values, this was counterbalanced by increased time spent in a resolved hernia state associated with increased utility. Model results were sensitive to the probability of hernia recurrence and hernia incarceration and utility decrement in the symptomatic hernia state.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This decision analytical model study found that elective surgical treatment for a symptomatic abdominal hernia was favored even in the setting of relatively high MELD-Na scores. Patient symptoms, hernia-specific characteristics, and surgeon and center expertise may potentially impact the optimal strategy, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.

External Validation of the FIPS Score for Post-TIPS Mortality in a National Veterans Affairs Cohort

BACKGROUND

The Freiburg index of post-TIPS survival (FIPS) score was recently demonstrated to improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality relative to existing standards. As this score was derived from a German cohort over an extended time period, it is unclear if performance will translate well to other settings. This study aimed to externally validate the FIPS score in a large Veterans Affairs (VA) cohort over two separate eras of TIPS-related care.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement in the VA from 2008 to 2020. Cox regression models for post-TIPS survival were constructed using FIPS, MELD, MELD-Na, or CTP scores as predictors. Discrimination (Harrell's C) and calibration (joint tests of calibration curve slope and intercept) were evaluated for each score. A stratified analysis was performed for time periods between 2008-2013 and 2014-2020.

RESULTS

The cohort of 1,274 patients was 97.3% male with mean age 60.9 years and mean MELD-Na 14. The FIPS score demonstrated the highest overall discrimination versus MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP (0.634 vs. 0.585, 0.626, 0.612, respectively). However, in the modern treatment era (2014-2020), the FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na. Additionally, the FIPS score demonstrated poor calibration at one-month and six-month post-TIPS timepoints (joint p = 0.04 and 0.004, respectively). MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP were well-calibrated at each timepoint (each joint p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The FIPS score performed similarly to MELD-Na in the modern TIPS treatment era and demonstrated regions of poor calibration. Future models derived with contemporary data may improve prediction of post-TIPS mortality.

Algorithms to Identify Alcoholic Hepatitis Hospitalizations in Patients with Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a clinically diagnosed syndrome with high short-term mortality for which liver transplantation may be curative. A lack of validated algorithms to identify AH hospitalizations has hindered clinical epidemiology research.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis using Veterans Health Administration (VHA) data from 2008 to 2015. We randomly sampled hospitalizations based upon abnormal liver tests and administrative codes for acute hepatitis or alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). Hospitalizations were manually adjudicated for AH per society guidelines. A priori algorithms were evaluated to compute positive predicted value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+), and were tested in an external University of Pennsylvania Health System (UPHS) cohort.

RESULTS

Of 368 hospitalizations, 142 (38.6%) were adjudicated as AH. AH patients were younger (55 vs. 58 years, p < 0.001), less likely to have prior cirrhosis decompensation (57% vs. 73.9%, p < 0.001), and had higher AST-to-ALT ratios (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001) and higher bilirubin levels (median 2.9 vs. 1.9 mg/dL, p < 0.001). Algorithms combining clinical laboratory criteria (AST > 85 U/L but < 450 U/L, AST-to-ALT ratio > 2, total bilirubin > 5 mg/dL) and administrative coding criteria yielded the highest PPV (96.4%, 95% CI 87.7-99.6) and the highest LR+ (43.0, 95% CI 10.6-173.5). Several algorithms demonstrated 100% PPV for definite AH in the UPHS external cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have identified algorithms for AH hospitalizations with excellent PPV and LR+. These high-specificity algorithms may be used in VHA datasets to identify patients with high likelihood of AH, but should not be used to study AH incidence.

Major Shifts in Outpatient Cirrhosis Care Delivery Attributable to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Cohort Study

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted health care delivery in the United States, with increased reliance on telemedicine visits as opposed to in-person outpatient appointments. We used national data to evaluate shifts in modes of hepatology outpatient care for patients with cirrhosis during the pandemic. This was a retrospective cohort study among U.S. veterans with cirrhosis. We used linear regression to evaluate absolute and percentage changes from baseline in hepatology in-person visits and telemedicine visits from January 1, 2020, to August 11, 2020. The proportion of in-person and telemedicine visits were plotted geographically to demonstrate state-level shifts in care delivery over time. Patient-level characteristics in the pre-COVID and during-COVID periods were also compared. We identified 5,618 in-person and 6,210 telemedicine hepatology visits among patients with cirrhosis. In-person visits significantly declined (-16.0% per week; 95% confidence interval [CI] -20.7, -11.2; P < 0.001), while telemedicine visits significantly increased (61.3% per week; 95% CI 45.1, 77.5; P < 0.001) in the early during-COVID period. At the U.S. state level, we found that nearly all states experienced a significant shift toward telemedicine over the course of several weeks. Patients over the age of 70 years and Black patients were less likely to receive telemedicine visits in the pre-COVID period (each P < 0.05), although these differences were eliminated in the during-COVID periods. Conclusion: Among patients with cirrhosis, hepatology outpatient care delivery has shifted heavily toward telemedicine due to COVID-19. This occurred across the United States, and changes have been sustained through August 2020. Expanded telemedicine visits among older patients and Black patients may reflect dedicated efforts to increased access to care among these groups.

Postvaccination COVID-19 infection is associated with reduced mortality in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients develop breakthrough COVID-19 infection despite vaccination. The aim of this study was to identify outcomes in patients with cirrhosis who developed postvaccination COVID-19.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study among US veterans with cirrhosis and postvaccination or unvaccinated COVID-19. Patients were considered fully vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 14 days after the second dose of either the Pfizer BNT162b2, the Moderna 1273-mRNA, or the single-dose Janssen Ad.26.COV2.S vaccines and partially vaccinated if COVID-19 was diagnosed 7 days after the first dose of any vaccine but prior to full vaccination. We investigated the association of postvaccination COVID-19 with mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 3242 unvaccinated and 254 postvaccination COVID-19 patients with cirrhosis (82 after full and 172 after partial vaccination). In a multivariable analysis of a 1:2 propensity-matched cohort including vaccinated (n = 254) and unvaccinated (n = 508) participants, postvaccination COVID-19 was associated with reduced risk of death (adjusted HR [aHR], 0.21; 95% CI, 0.11-0.42). The reduction was observed after both full (aHR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.08-0.63) and partial (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.07-0.54) vaccination, following the 1273-mRNA (aHR, 0.12; 95% CI 0.04-0.37) and BNT162b2 (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10-0.71) vaccines and among patients with compensated (aHR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.08-0.45) and decompensated (aHR, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.08-0.90) cirrhosis. Findings were consistent in a sensitivity analysis restricted to participants who developed COVID-19 after vaccine availability.

CONCLUSIONS

Though patients with cirrhosis can develop breakthrough COVID-19 after full or partial vaccination, these infections are associated with reduced mortality.