Longitudinal Patient-Reported Voice Quality in Early-Stage Glottic Cancer

OBJECTIVE

Patient-reported voice quality is an important outcome during counseling in early-stage glottic cancer. However, there is a paucity of adequate longitudinal studies concerning voice outcomes. This study aimed to investigate longitudinal trajectories for patient-reported voice quality and associated risk factors for treatment modalities such as transoral CO₂ laser microsurgery, single vocal cord irradiation, and local radiotherapy.

STUDY DESIGN

A longitudinal observational cohort study.

SETTING

Tertiary cancer center.

METHODS

Patients treated for Tcis-T1b, N0M0 glottic cancer were included in this study (N = 294). The Voice Handicap Index was obtained at baseline and during follow-up (N = 1944). Mixed-effects models were used for investigating the different trajectories for patient-reported voice quality.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up duration was 43.4 (SD 21.5) months. Patients received transoral CO₂ laser microsurgery (57.8%), single vocal cord irradiation (24.5%), or local radiotherapy (17.5%). A steeper improvement during the first year after treatment for single vocal cord irradiation (-15.7) and local radiotherapy (-12.4) was seen, compared with a more stable trajectory for laser surgery (-6.1). All treatment modalities showed equivalent outcomes during long-term follow-up. Associated risk factors for different longitudinal trajectories were age, tumor stage, and comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal patient-reported voice quality after treatment for early-stage glottic cancer is heterogeneous and nonlinear. Most improvement is seen during the first year of follow-up and differs between treatment modalities. No clinically significant differences in long-term trajectories were found. Insight into longitudinal trajectories can enhance individual patient counseling and provide the foundation for an individualized dynamic prediction model.

Sample size calculation for clinical trials analyzed with the meta-analytic-predictive approach

The meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) approach is a Bayesian method to incorporate historical controls in new trials that aims to increase the statistical power and reduce the required sample size. Here we investigate how to calculate the sample size of the new trial when historical data is available, and the MAP approach is used in the analysis. In previous applications of the MAP approach, the prior effective sample size (ESS) acted as a metric to quantify the number of subjects the historical information is worth. However, the validity of using the prior ESS in sample size calculation (i.e., reducing the number of randomized controls by the derived prior ESS) is questionable, because different approaches may yield different values for prior ESS. In this work, we propose a straightforward Monte Carlo approach to calculate the sample size that achieves the desired power in the new trial given available historical controls. To make full use of the available historical information to simulate the new trial data, the control parameters are not taken as a point estimate but sampled from the MAP prior. These sampled control parameters and the MAP prior based on the historical data are then used to derive the statistical power for the treatment effect and the resulting required sample size. The proposed sample size calculation approach is illustrated with real-life data sets with different outcomes from three studies. The results show that this approach to calculating the required sample size for the MAP analysis is straightforward and generic.

Diffusion tensor imaging of the brain in Pompe disease

Enzyme replacement therapy has drastically changed prospects of patients with Pompe disease, a progressive metabolic myopathy. As classic infantile patients survive due to treatment, they exhibit progressive white matter abnormalities, while brain involvement in late-onset patients is not fully elucidated. To study the underlying microstructure of white matter, we acquired structural (T1, T2, FLAIR) and diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) of the brain in 12 classic infantile patients (age 5-20 years) and 18 late-onset Pompe patients (age 11-56 years). Structural images were scored according to a rating scale for classic infantile patients. Fractional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity (MD) from classic infantile patients were compared to a reference population, using a Wilcoxon signed-rank, one sample test. Effect sizes (Hedges' G) were used to compare DTI metrics across different tracts. For late-onset patients, results were compared to (reported) tractography data on normal aging. In classic infantile patients, we found a significant lower FA and higher MD (p < 0.01) compared to the reference population. Large-association fibers were most severely affected. Classic infantile patients with advanced white matter abnormalities on structural MRI showed the largest deviations from the reference population. FA and MD were similar for younger and older late-onset patients in large WM-association fibers. We conclude that, while no deviations from typical neurodevelopment were found in late-onset patients, classic infantile Pompe patients showed quantifiable, substantially altered white matter microstructure, which corresponded with disease stage on structural MRI. DTI holds promise to monitor therapy response in future therapies targeting the brain.

Clinical consequences of nonadherence to Barrett's esophagus surveillance recommendations: a Multicenter prospective cohort study

Half of Barrett's esophagus (BE) surveillance endoscopies do not adhere to guideline recommendations. In this multicenter prospective cohort study, we assessed the clinical consequences of nonadherence to recommended surveillance intervals and biopsy protocol. Data from BE surveillance patients were collected from endoscopy and pathology reports; questionnaires were distributed among endoscopists. We estimated the association between (non)adherence and (i) endoscopic curability of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), (ii) mortality, and (iii) misclassification of histological diagnosis according to a multistate hidden Markov model. Potential explanatory parameters (patient, facility, endoscopist variables) for nonadherence, related to clinical impact, were analyzed. In 726 BE patients, 3802 endoscopies were performed by 167 endoscopists. Adherence to surveillance interval was 16% for non-dysplastic (ND)BE, 55% for low-grade dysplasia (LGD), and 54% of endoscopies followed the Seattle protocol. There was no evidence to support the following statements: longer surveillance intervals or fewer biopsies than recommended affect endoscopic curability of EAC or cause-specific mortality (P > 0.20); insufficient biopsies affect the probability of NDBE (OR 1.0) or LGD (OR 2.3) being misclassified as high-grade dysplasia/EAC (P > 0.05). Better adherence was associated with older patients (OR 1.1), BE segments ≤ 2 cm (OR 8.3), visible abnormalities (OR 1.8, all P ≤ 0.05), endoscopists with a subspecialty (OR 3.2), and endoscopists who deemed histological diagnosis an adequate marker (OR 2.0). Clinical consequences of nonadherence to guidelines appeared to be limited with respect to endoscopic curability of EAC and mortality. This indicates that BE surveillance recommendations should be optimized to minimize the burden of endoscopies.

Using joint models to study the association between CD4 count and the risk of death in TB/HIV data

Background

The association structure linking the longitudinal and survival sub-models is of fundamental importance in the joint modeling framework and the choice of this structure should be made based on the clinical background of the study. However, this information may not always be accessible and rationale for selecting this association structure has received relatively little attention in the literature. To this end, we aim to explore four alternative functional forms of the association structure between the CD4 count and the risk of death and provide rationale for selecting the optimal association structure for our data. We also aim to compare the results obtained from the joint model to those obtained from the time-varying Cox model.

Methods

We used data from the Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA) AIDS Treatment programme, the Starting Antiretroviral Therapy at Three Points in Tuberculosis (SAPiT) study, an open-label, three armed randomised, controlled trial between June 2005 and July 2010 (N=642). In our analysis, we combined the early and late integrated arms and compared results to the sequential arm. We utilized the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) to select the final model with the best structure, with smaller values indicating better model adjustments to the data.

Results

Patient characteristics were similar across the study arms. Combined integrated therapy arms had a reduction of 55% in mortality (HR:0.45, 95% CI:0.28-0.72) compared to the sequential therapy arm. The joint model with a cumulative effects functional form was chosen as the best association structure. In particular, our joint model found that the area under the longitudinal profile of CD4 count was strongly associated with a 21% reduction in mortality (HR:0.79, 95% CI:0.72-0.86). Where as results from the time-varying Cox model showed a 19% reduction in mortality (HR:0.81, 95% CI:0.77-0.84).

Conclusions

In this paper we have shown that the “current value” association structure is not always the best structure that expresses the correct relationship between the outcomes in all settings, which is why it is crucial to explore alternative clinically meaningful association structures that links the longitudinal and survival processes.

Incorporating historical control information in ANCOVA models using the meta-analytic-predictive approach

The meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) approach is a Bayesian meta-analytic method to synthesize and incorporate information from historical controls in the analysis of a new trial. Classically, only a single parameter, typically the intercept or rate, is assumed to vary across studies, which may not be realistic in more complex models. Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) is often used to analyze trials with a pretest-posttest design, where both the intercept and the baseline effect (coefficient of the outcome at baseline) affect the estimated treatment effect. We extended the MAP approach to ANCOVA, to allow for variation in the intercept and the baseline effect across studies, and possibly also correlation between these parameters. The method was illustrated using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study (ADCS) and assessed with a simulation study. In the ADCS data, the proposed multivariate MAP approach yielded a prior effective sample size of 79 and 58 for the intercept and the baseline effect respectively and reduced the posterior standard deviation of the treatment effect by 12.6%. The result was robust to the choice of prior for the between-study variation. In the simulations, the proposed approach yielded power gains with a good control of the type I error rate. Ignoring the between-study correlation of the parameters or assuming no variation in the baseline effect generally led to less power gain. In conclusion, the MAP approach can be extended to a multivariate version for ANCOVA, which may improve the estimation of the treatment effect.

DEcrease STress through RESilience training for Students (DESTRESS) Study: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial nested in a longitudinal observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Chronic stress and burnout are highly prevalent among academically trained healthcare professionals, negatively affecting their well-being and capacity to engage in their work. Resilience to stress develops early in one's career path, hence offering resilience training to university students in these professions is one approach to fostering well-being and mental health. The aim of this study is to assess whether offering mindfulness-based resilience training to university students in healthcare professions reduces their perceived chronic stress.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study has a hybrid design combining a longitudinal observational cohort with a nested randomized controlled trial (RCT) with sequential multiple assignment and multistage adaptive interventions while taking participants' preferences into account. All students in healthcare related programmes at the Erasmus University Rotterdam are invited to participate. Within the observational cohort, students with a score of 14 or higher on the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) are invited to take part in the RCT (n = 706). Eligible participants are randomized to control or active intervention in a ratio of 1:6. Those randomized to the control group and non-randomized participants in the cohort receive passive web-based psychoeducation about chronic stress and burnout through referral to specific websites. Participants randomized to the intervention group receive one of 8 active mindfulness-based interventions. They select a rank order of 4 preferred interventions and are randomized across these with equal probability. Non-response to the intervention is followed by sequential randomized assignment to another intervention, for a total maximum of 3 sequential interventions. All participants receive questionnaires at baseline, before and after each 8-week intervention period, and at 1- and 2-year follow-up. The primary outcome is perceived chronic stress measured with the PSS. Secondary outcomes include mental well-being, burnout, quality of life, healthcare utilization, drug use, bodyweight, mental and physical stress-related symptoms, resilience, and study progress.

ETHICS AND REGISTRATION

Approval from the Medical Ethics Review Committee was obtained under protocol number MEC-2018-1645. The trial is registered in the Netherlands National Trial Register by registration number NL7623, 22/03/2019, https://www.trialregister.nl/.

Dynamic Digital Twin: Diagnosis, Treatment, Prediction, and Prevention of Disease During the Life Course

A digital twin (DT), originally defined as a virtual representation of a physical asset, system, or process, is a new concept in health care. A DT in health care is not a single technology but a domain-adapted multimodal modeling approach incorporating the acquisition, management, analysis, prediction, and interpretation of data, aiming to improve medical decision-making. However, there are many challenges and barriers that must be overcome before a DT can be used in health care. In this viewpoint paper, we build on the current literature, address these challenges, and describe a dynamic DT in health care for optimizing individual patient health care journeys, specifically for women at risk for cardiovascular complications in the preconception and pregnancy periods and across the life course. We describe how we can commit multiple domains to developing this DT. With our cross-domain definition of the DT, we aim to define future goals, trade-offs, and methods that will guide the development of the dynamic DT and implementation strategies in health care.

Longitudinal Anthropometric Measures and Risk of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation Among Community-Dwelling Men and Women

OBJECTIVE

To assess the sex-specific evolution of various anthropometric measures and the association of their longitudinal trajectories with new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

Among 5266 men and 7218 women free of AF at baseline from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, each anthropometric measure was measured 1 to 5 times from 1989 to 2014. Anthropometric measures were standardized to obtain hazard ratios per 1 SD increase to enable comparison. Joint models were used to assess the longitudinal association between anthropometric measures and incident AF. Use of the joint models is a preferred method for simultaneous analyses of repeated measurements and survival data for conferring less biased estimates.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 63.9 (8.9) years for men and 64.9 (9.8) years for women. Median follow-up time was 10.5 years. Longitudinal evolution of weight, height, waist circumference, hip circumference, and body mass index was associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF in both men and women. In joint models, larger height in men (hazard ratio [95% credible interval] per 1 SD, 1.27 [1.17 to 1.38]) and weight in women (1.24 [1.16 to 1.34]) showed the largest associations with AF. In joint models, waist to hip ratio was significantly associated with incident AF only in women (1.10 [1.03 to 1.18]).

CONCLUSION

Considering the entire longitudinal trajectories in joint models, anthropometric measures were positively associated with an increased risk for new-onset AF among men and women in the general population. Increase in measure of central obesity showed a stronger association with increased risk of AF onset among women compared with men.

Joint Modeling of Repeated Measurements of Different Biomarkers Predicts Mortality in COVID-19 Patients in the Intensive Care Unit

Introduction:

Predicting disease severity is important for treatment decisions in patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit (ICU). Different biomarkers have been investigated in COVID-19 as predictor of mortality, including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR). Using repeated measurements in a prediction model may result in a more accurate risk prediction than the use of single point measurements. The goal of this study is to investigate the predictive value of trends in repeated measurements of CRP, PCT, IL-6, and suPAR on mortality in patients admitted to the ICU with COVID-19.

Methods:

This was a retrospective single center cohort study. Patients were included if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR test and if IL-6, PCT, suPAR was measured during any of the ICU admission days. There were no exclusion criteria for this study. We used joint models to predict ICU-mortality. This analysis was done using the framework of joint models for longitudinal and survival data. The reported hazard ratios express the relative change in the risk of death resulting from a doubling or 20% increase of the biomarker’s value in a day compared to no change in the same period.

Results:

A total of 107 patients were included, of which 26 died during ICU admission. Adjusted for sex and age, a doubling in the next day in either levels of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were significantly predictive of in-hospital mortality with HRs of 1.523 (1.012-6.540), 75.25 (1.116-6247), and 24.45 (1.696-1057) respectively. With a 20% increase in biomarker value in a subsequent day, the HR of PCT, IL-6, and suPAR were 1.117 (1.03-1.639), 3.116 (1.029-9.963), and 2.319 (1.149-6.243) respectively.

Conclusion:

Joint models for the analysis of repeated measurements of PCT, suPAR, and IL-6 are a useful method for predicting mortality in COVID-19 patients in the ICU. Patients with an increasing trend of biomarker levels in consecutive days are at increased risk for mortality.

Sex Differences in Neoplastic Progression in Barrett’s Esophagus: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

Simple Summary

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Endoscopic surveillance plays an important role in the timely detection of neoplastic progression. However, the cost-effectiveness of current surveillance strategies is debatable. Previous studies have shown that male Barrett’s patients have lower neoplastic progression risk than females. However, these studies do not provide a more practical translation of these sex disparities into different surveillance intervals. The current multicenter prospective cohort study aimed to evaluate sex differences in 868 BE patients; not only with respect to neoplastic progression risk, but also concerning the difference in time to detection of high-grade dysplasia (HGD)/EAC: time to neoplastic progression was estimated to be almost twice as low in males than in females. In contrast, the stage of neoplasia appeared to be higher in females. Our results can guide future discussions for sex-specific guidelines, supporting the implementation of neoplastic risk stratification per individual patient in BE surveillance.

Abstract

Recommendations in Barrett’s esophagus (BE) guidelines are mainly based on male patients. We aimed to evaluate sex differences in BE patients in (1) probability of and (2) time to neoplastic progression, and (3) differences in the stage distribution of neoplasia. We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study including 868 BE patients. Cox regression modeling and accelerated failure time modeling were used to estimate the sex differences. Neoplastic progression was defined as high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and/or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Among the 639 (74%) males and 229 females that were included (median follow-up 7.1 years), 61 (7.0%) developed HGD/EAC. Neoplastic progression risk was estimated to be twice as high among males (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.11–4.62) than females. The risk of HGD was found to be higher in males (HR 3.76, 95% CI 1.33–10.6). Time to HGD/EAC (AR 0.52, 95% CI 0.29–0.95) and HGD (AR 0.40, 95% CI 0.19–0.86) was shorter in males. Females had proportionally more EAC than HGD and tended to have higher stages of neoplasia at diagnosis. In conclusion, both the risk of and time to neoplastic progression were higher in males. However, females were proportionally more often diagnosed with (advanced) EAC. We should strive for improved neoplastic risk stratification per individual BE patient, incorporating sex disparities into new prediction models.

Heart failure subphenotypes based on repeated biomarker measurements are associated with clinical characteristics and adverse events (Bio-SHiFT study)

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to identify heart failure (HF) subphenotypes using 92 repeatedly measured circulating proteins in 250 patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, and to investigate their clinical characteristics and prognosis.

METHODS

Clinical data and blood samples were collected tri-monthly until the primary endpoint (PEP) or censoring occurred, with a maximum of 11 visits. The Olink Cardiovascular III panel was measured in baseline samples and the last two samples before the PEP (in 66 PEP cases), or the last sample before censoring (in 184 PEP-free patients). The PEP comprised cardiovascular death, heart transplantation, Left Ventricular Assist Device implantation, and hospitalization for HF. Cluster analysis was performed on individual biomarker trajectories to identify subphenotypes. Then biomarker profiles and clinical characteristics were investigated, and survival analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

Clustering revealed three clinically diverse subphenotypes. Cluster 3 was older, with a longer duration of, and more advanced HF, and most comorbidities. Cluster 2 showed increasing levels over time of most biomarkers. In cluster 3, there were elevated baseline levels and increasing levels over time of 16 remaining biomarkers. Median follow-up was 2.2 (1.4-2.5) years. Cluster 3 had a significantly poorer prognosis compared to cluster 1 (adjusted event-free survival time ratio 0.25 (95%CI:0.12-0.50), p < 0.001). Repeated measurements clusters showed incremental prognostic value compared to clusters using single measurements, or clinical characteristics only.

CONCLUSIONS

Clustering based on repeated biomarker measurements revealed three clinically diverse subphenotypes, of which one has a significantly worse prognosis, therefore contributing to improved (individualized) prognostication.

Vascular biomechanics and molecular disease activity in the thoracic aorta: a novel imaging method

AIMS

The influence haemodynamics have on vessel wall pathobiology in aortic disease is incomplete. This aim of this study was to develop a repeatable method for assessing the relationship between aortic wall shear stress (WSS) and disease activity by fusing 4D flow cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) with hybrid positron emission tomography (PET).

METHODS AND RESULTS

As part of an ongoing clinical trial, patients with bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) were prospectively imaged with both 18F-sodium fluoride (18F-NaF) PET, a marker of calcification activity, and 4D flow CMR. We developed novel software allowing accurate 3D co-registration and high-resolution comparison of aortic peak systolic WSS and 18F-NaF PET uptake (maximum tissue-to-background ratio). Intra-observer repeatability of both measurements was determined using Bland-Altman plots and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs). The relationship between localized WSS and 18F-NaF uptake was analysed using linear mixed-effect models. Twenty-three patients with BAV (median age 50 [44-55] years, 22% female) were included. Intra-observer repeatability for WSS (ICC = 0.92) and 18F-NaF (ICC = 0.91) measurements obtained within 1.4 ± 0.6 cm2 regions of interest was excellent. On multivariable analysis, 18F-NaF PET uptake was independently and negatively associated with WSS as well as diastolic blood pressure (both P < 0.05), adjusted for age.

CONCLUSION

Fused assessment of WSS and 18F-NaF PET uptake is feasible and repeatable, demonstrating a clear association between these two factors. This high spatial resolution approach has major potential to advance our understanding of the relationship between vascular haemodynamics and disease activity.

Modeling the underlying biological processes in Alzheimer's disease using a multivariate competing risk joint model

Many clinical trials repeatedly measure several longitudinal outcomes on patients. Patient follow‐up can discontinue due to an outcome‐dependent event, such as clinical diagnosis, death, or dropout. Joint modeling is a popular choice for the analysis of this type of data. Using example data from a prodromal Alzheimer's disease trial, we propose a new type of multivariate joint model in which longitudinal brain imaging outcomes and memory impairment ratings are allowed to be associated both with time to open‐label medication and dropout, and where the brain imaging outcomes may also directly affect the memory impairment ratings. Existing joint models for multivariate longitudinal outcomes account for the correlation between the longitudinal outcomes through the random effects, often by assuming a multivariate normal distribution. However, for these models, it is difficult to interpret how the longitudinal outcomes affect each other. We model the dependence between the longitudinal outcomes differently so that a first longitudinal outcome affects a second one. Specifically, for each longitudinal outcome, we use a linear mixed‐effects model to estimate its trajectory, where, for the second longitudinal outcome, we include the linear predictor of the first outcome as a time‐varying covariate. This facilitates an easy and direct interpretation of the association between the longitudinal outcomes and provides a framework for latent mediation analysis to understand the underlying biological processes. For the trial considered here, we found that part of the intervention effect is mediated through hippocampal brain atrophy. The proposed joint models are fitted using a Bayesian framework via MCMC simulation.

Heart rate variability is associated with left ventricular systolic, diastolic function and incident heart failure in the general population

BACKGROUND

HRV has mostly shown associations with systolic dysfunction and more recently, with diastolic dysfunction in Heart failure (HF) patients. But the role of sympathetic nervous system in changes of left ventricular (LV) systolic and diastolic function and new-onset HF has not been extensively studied.

METHODS

Among 3157 men and 4405 women free of HF and atrial fibrillation retrospectively included from the population-based Rotterdam Study, we used linear mixed models to examine associations of RR-interval differences and standard deviation of RR-intervals corrected for heart rate (RMSSDc and SDNNc) with longitudinal changes of LV ejection fraction (LVEF), E/A ratio, left atrial (LA) diameter, E/e' ratio. Afterwards, using cox regressions, we examined their association with new-onset HF.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 65 (9.95) in men and 65.7 (10.2) in women. Every unit increase in log RMSSDc was accompanied by 0.75% (95%CI:-1.11%;-0.39%) and 0.31% (- 0.60%;-0.01%) lower LVEF among men and women each year, respectively. Higher log RMSSDc was linked to 0.03 (- 0.04;-0.01) and 0.02 (- 0.03;-0.003) lower E/A and also - 1.76 (- 2.77;- 0.75) and - 1.18 (- 1.99;-0.38) lower LVM index in both sexes and 0.72 mm (95% CI: - 1.20;-0.25) smaller LA diameters in women. The associations with LVEF in women diminished after excluding HF cases during the first 3 years of follow-up. During a median follow-up of 8.7 years, hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident HF were 1.34 (1.08;1.65) for log RMSSDc in men and 1.15 (0.93;1.42) in women. SDNNc showed similar associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Indices of HRV were associated with worse systolic function in men but mainly with improvement in LA size in women. Higher HRV was associated with higher risk of new-onset HF in men. Our findings highlight potential sex differences in autonomic function underlying cardiac dysfunction and heart failure in the general population.

Dynamic personalized risk prediction in chronic heart failure patients: a longitudinal, clinical investigation of 92 biomarkers (Bio-SHiFT study)

The aim of our observational study was to derive a small set out of 92 repeatedly measured biomarkers with optimal predictive capacity for adverse clinical events in heart failure, which could be used for dynamic, individual risk assessment in clinical practice. In 250 chronic HFrEF (CHF) patients, we collected trimonthly blood samples during a median of 2.2 years. We selected 537 samples for repeated measurement of 92 biomarkers with the Cardiovascular Panel III (Olink Proteomics AB). We applied Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalization to select the optimal set of predictors of the primary endpoint (PE). The association between repeatedly measured levels of selected biomarkers and the PE was evaluated by multivariable joint models (mvJM) with stratified fivefold cross validation of the area under the curve (cvAUC). The PE occurred in 66(27%) patients. The optimal set of biomarkers selected by LASSO included 9 proteins: NT-proBNP, ST2, vWF, FABP4, IGFBP-1, PAI-1, PON-3, transferrin receptor protein-1, and chitotriosidase-1, that yielded a cvAUC of 0.88, outperforming the discriminative ability of models consisting of standard biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, eGFR clinically adjusted) − 0.82 and performing equally well as an extended literature-based set of acknowledged biomarkers (NT-proBNP, hs-TnT, hs-CRP, GDF-15, ST2, PAI-1, Galectin 3) − 0.88. Nine out of 92 serially measured circulating proteins provided a multivariable model for adverse clinical events in CHF patients with high discriminative ability. These proteins reflect wall stress, remodelling, endothelial dysfunction, iron deficiency, haemostasis/fibrinolysis and innate immunity activation. A panel containing these proteins could contribute to dynamic, personalized risk assessment.

Clinical Trial Registration: 10/05/2013 https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01851538?term=nCT01851538&draw=2&rank=1.

Kidney function and the risk of sudden cardiac death in the general population

Background

Chronic kidney disease increases sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk, but the association between kidney function and SCD in a general population is largely unknown. Therefore, we investigated the association between kidney function and SCD in a general middle-aged and elderly population.

Methods

We included individuals aged ≥45 years from a prospective population-based cohort study. The association between kidney function assessments [estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine (eGFRcreat), cystatin C (eGFRcys) or both (eGFRcreat-cys)] and SCD was investigated using Cox proportional-hazards and joint models. Absolute 10-year risks were computed using competing risk analyses. Mediation analyses were performed using a four-way decomposition method.

Results

We included 9687 participants (median follow-up 8.9 years; mean age 65.3 years; 56.7% women; 243 SCD cases). Lower eGFRcys and eGFRcreat-cys were associated with increased SCD risk [hazard ratio (HR) 1.23, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.34 and HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.06–1.29, per 10 mL/min/1.73 m² eGFR decrease]. A significant trend (P = 0.001) across eGFRcys categories was found, with an HR of 2.11 (95% CI 1.19–3.74) for eGFRcys <60 compared with eGFRcys >90 mL/min/1.73 m². Comparing eGFRcys of 90 to 60 mL/min/1.73 m², absolute 10-year risk increased from 1.0% to 2.5%. Identified subgroups at increased risk included older participants and participants with atrial fibrillation. The associations were not mediated by coronary heart disease, hypertension or diabetes.

Conclusions

Reduced kidney function is associated with increased SCD risk in the general population, especially with eGFRcys. eGFRcys could be added to prediction models and screening programmes for SCD prevention.

Incorporating historical controls in clinical trials with longitudinal outcomes using the modified power prior

Several dynamic borrowing methods, such as the modified power prior (MPP), the commensurate prior, have been proposed to increase statistical power and reduce the required sample size in clinical trials where comparable historical controls are available. Most methods have focused on cross‐sectional endpoints, and appropriate methodology for longitudinal outcomes is lacking. In this study, we extend the MPP to the linear mixed model (LMM). An important question is whether the MPP should use the conditional version of the LMM (given the random effects) or the marginal version (averaged over the distribution of the random effects), which we refer to as the conditional MPP and the marginal MPP, respectively. We evaluated the MPP for one historical control arm via a simulation study and an analysis of the data of Alzheimer's Disease Cooperative Study (ADCS) with the commensurate prior as the comparator. The conditional MPP led to inflated type I error rate when there existed moderate or high between‐study heterogeneity. The marginal MPP and the commensurate prior yielded a power gain (3.6%–10.4% vs. 0.6%–4.6%) with the type I error rates close to 5% (5.2%–6.2% vs. 3.8%–6.2%) when the between‐study heterogeneity is not excessively high. For the ADCS data, all the borrowing methods improved the precision of estimates and provided the same clinical conclusions. The marginal MPP and the commensurate prior are useful for borrowing historical controls in longitudinal data analysis, while the conditional MPP is not recommended due to inflated type I error rates.

Peripheral Immune Cell Numbers and C-Reactive Protein in Parkinson's Disease: Results from a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

The immune system is known to be involved in Parkinson's disease (PD) pathogenesis, but the temporal relationship between peripheral immune responses and PD remains unknown.

OBJECTIVE

We determined the association between peripheral immune cell numbers, C-reactive protein (CRP), and prevalent as well as incident PD.

METHODS

This study was embedded in the population-based setting of the Rotterdam Study. We repeatedly measured peripheral immune cell numbers (differential leukocyte count and platelet count, granulocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio [GLR], platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio [PLR], and adapted systemic immune-inflammation index [adapted SII]) and CRP between 1990 and 2016. Participants were continuously followed-up for PD until 2018. We estimated the association of the markers with prevalent and incident PD using logistic regression models and joint models, respectively. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking, body mass index, and medication use. Odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR) are shown per doubling of the marker.

RESULTS

A total of 12,642 participants were included in this study. The mean age (standard deviation) was 65.1 (9.8) years and 57.5%were women. Participants with a higher lymphocyte count were less likely to have prevalent PD (adjusted OR: 0.34, 95%CI 0.17-0.68). Participants with a higher GLR, PLR, and adapted SII were more likely to have prevalent PD, but these effects were explained by the lymphocyte count. The peripheral immune cell numbers and CRP were not significantly associated with the risk of incident PD.

CONCLUSION

We found participants with a higher lymphocyte count to be less likely to have prevalent PD, but we did not find an association between peripheral immune cell numbers nor CRP and the risk of incident PD.

The use of OCT to detect signs of intracranial hypertension in patients with sagittal suture synostosis: Reference values and correlations

PURPOSE

To obtain pediatric normative reference values and determine whether optical coherence tomography (OCT) corresponds better with clinical signs of intracranial hypertension (ICH) compared to the traditional screening method fundoscopy in a large cohort of one type of single suture craniosynostosis.

METHODS

Control subjects without optic nerve diseases and isolated sagittal synostosis patients aged 3-10 years who underwent fundoscopy and OCT were included in this prospective cohort study. Normative reference values were obtained through bootstrap analysis. Main outcome was the association between peripapillary total retinal thickness (TRT) and total retinal volume (TRV) and appearance on fundoscopy. Signs and symptoms suggestive of ICH, including skull growth arrest, fingerprinting, and headache, were scored.

RESULTS

Sixty-four healthy controls and 93 isolated sagittal synostosis patients were included. Normative cut-off values for mean TRT are < 256 μm and > 504 μm and for mean TRV < 0.21 mm³ and > 0.39 mm³. TRT was increased in 16 (17%) and TRV in 15 (16%) of 93 patients, compared to only 4 patients with papilledema on fundoscopy (4%). Both parameters were associated with papilledema on fundoscopy (OR = 16.7, p = 0.02, and OR = 18.2, p = 0.01). Skull growth arrest was significantly associated with abnormal OCT parameters (OR = 13.65, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The established cut-off points can be applied to screen for ICH in pediatrics. The present study detected abnormalities with OCT more frequent than with fundoscopy, which were associated with skull growth arrest. Therefore, a combination of OCT, fundoscopy, and skull growth arrest can improve clinical decision-making in craniosynostosis.

Demographic, clinical, and service-use characteristics related to the clinician's recommendation to transition from child to adult mental health services

PURPOSE

The service configuration with distinct child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) and adult mental health services (AMHS) may be a barrier to continuity of care. Because of a lack of transition policy, CAMHS clinicians have to decide whether and when a young person should transition to AMHS. This study describes which characteristics are associated with the clinicians' advice to continue treatment at AMHS.

METHODS

Demographic, family, clinical, treatment, and service-use characteristics of the MILESTONE cohort of 763 young people from 39 CAMHS in Europe were assessed using multi-informant and standardized assessment tools. Logistic mixed models were fitted to assess the relationship between these characteristics and clinicians' transition recommendations.

RESULTS

Young people with higher clinician-rated severity of psychopathology scores, with self- and parent-reported need for ongoing treatment, with lower everyday functional skills and without self-reported psychotic experiences were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment. Among those who had been recommended to continue treatment, young people who used psychotropic medication, who had been in CAMHS for more than a year, and for whom appropriate AMHS were available were more likely to be recommended to continue treatment at AMHS. Young people whose parents indicated a need for ongoing treatment were more likely to be recommended to stay in CAMHS.

CONCLUSION

Although the decision regarding continuity of treatment was mostly determined by a small set of clinical characteristics, the recommendation to continue treatment at AMHS was mostly affected by service-use related characteristics, such as the availability of appropriate services.