National Cohort Study of Resource Utilization in Older Adults With Emergency General Surgery Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Prior studies have sought to describe Emergency General Surgery (EGS) burden, but a detailed description of resource utilization for both operative and nonoperative management of EGS conditions has not been undertaken.

METHODS

Patient and hospital characteristics were extracted from Medicare data, 2015-2018. Operations, nonsurgical procedures, and other resources (i.e., radiology) were defined using Current Procedural Terminology codes.

RESULTS

One million eight hundred two thousand five hundred forty-five patients were included in the cohort. The mean age was 74.7 y and the most common diagnoses were upper gastrointestinal. The majority of hospitals were metropolitan (75.1%). Therapeutic radiology services were available in 78.4% of hospitals and operating rooms or endoscopy suites were available in 92.5% of hospitals. There was variability in resource utilization across EGS subconditions, with hepatobiliary (26.4%) and obstruction (23.9%) patients most frequently undergoing operation.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of EGS diseases in older adults involves several interventional resources. Changes in EGS models, acute care surgery training, and interhospital care coordination may be beneficial to the treatment of EGS patients.

Conditional Effects of Race on Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions

INTRODUCTION

Many emergency general surgery (EGS) conditions can be managed both operatively or nonoperatively; however, it is unknown whether the decision to operate affects Black and White patients differentially.

METHODS

We identified a nationwide cohort of Black and White Medicare beneficiaries, hospitalized for common EGS conditions from July 2015 to June 2018. Using near-far matching to adjust for measurable confounding and an instrumental variable analysis to control for selection bias associated with treatment assignment, we compare outcomes of operative and nonoperative management in a stratified population of Black and White patients. Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, 30-day mortality, nonroutine discharge, and 30-day readmissions. An interaction test based on a t test was used to determine the conditional effects of operative versus nonoperative management between Black and White patients.

RESULTS

A total of 556,087 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 59,519 (10.7%) were Black and 496,568 (89.3%) were White. Overall, 165,932 (29.8%) patients had an operation and 390,155 (70.2%) were managed nonoperatively. Significant outcome differences were seen between operative and nonoperative management for some conditions; however, no significant differences were seen for the conditional effect of race on outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to manage an EGS patient operatively versus nonoperatively has varying effects on surgical outcomes. These effects vary by EGS condition. There were no significant conditional effects of race on the outcomes of operative versus nonoperative management among universally insured older adults hospitalized with EGS conditions.

Effect of Serious Mental Illness on Surgical Consultation and Operative Management of Older Adults with Acute Biliary Disease: A Nationwide Study

BACKGROUND

Mental illness is associated with worse outcomes after emergency general surgery. To understand how preoperative processes of care may influence disparate outcomes, we examined rates of surgical consultation, treatment, and operative approach between older adults with and without serious mental illness (SMI).

STUDY DESIGN

We performed a nationwide, retrospective cohort study of Medicare beneficiaries aged 65.5 years or more hospitalized via the emergency department for acute cholecystitis or biliary colic. SMI was defined as schizophrenia spectrum, mood, and/or anxiety disorders. The primary outcome was surgical consultation. Secondary outcomes included operative treatment and surgical approach (laparoscopic vs open). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine outcomes with adjustment for potential confounders related to patient demographics, comorbidities, and rates of imaging.

RESULTS

Of 85,943 included older adults, 19,549 (22.7%) had SMI. Before adjustment, patients with SMI had lower rates of surgical consultation (78.6% vs 80.2%, p < 0.001) and operative treatment (68.2% vs 71.7%, p < 0.001), but no significant difference regarding laparoscopic approach (92.0% vs 92.1%, p = 0.805). In multivariable regression models with adjustment for confounders, there was no difference in odds of receiving a surgical consultation (odds ratio 0.98 [95% CI 0.93 to 1.03]) or undergoing operative treatment (odds ratio 0.98 [95% CI 0.93 to 1.03]) for patients with SMI compared with those without SMI.

CONCLUSIONS

Older adults with SMI had similar odds of receiving surgical consultation and operative treatment as those without SMI. As such, differences in processes of care that result in SMI-related disparities likely occur before or after the point of surgical consultation in this universally insured patient population.

Operative and Nonoperative Outcomes of Emergency General Surgery Conditions: An Observational Study Using a Novel Instrumental Variable

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of operative versus nonoperative management of emergency general surgery conditions on short-term and long-term outcomes.

BACKGROUND

Many emergency general surgery conditions can be managed either operatively or nonoperatively, but high-quality evidence to guide management decisions is scarce.

METHODS

We included 507,677 Medicare patients treated for an emergency general surgery condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. Operative management was compared with nonoperative management using a preference-based instrumental variable analysis and near-far matching to minimize selection bias and unmeasured confounding. Outcomes were mortality, complications, and readmissions.

RESULTS

For hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions, operative management was associated with lower risk of mortality at 30 days [-2.6% (95% confidence interval: -4.0, -1.3)], 90 days [-4.7% (-6.50, -2.8)], and 180 days [-6.4% (-8.5, -4.2)]. Among 56,582 intestinal obstruction patients, operative management was associated with a higher risk of inpatient mortality [2.8% (0.7, 4.9)] but no significant difference thereafter. For upper gastrointestinal conditions, operative management was associated with a 9.7% higher risk of in-hospital mortality (6.4, 13.1), which increased over time. There was a 6.9% higher risk of inpatient mortality (3.6, 10.2) with operative management for colorectal conditions, which increased over time. For general abdominal conditions, operative management was associated with 12.2% increased risk of inpatient mortality (8.7, 15.8). This effect was attenuated at 30 days [8.5% (3.8, 13.2)] and nonsignificant thereafter.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of operative emergency general surgery management varied across conditions and over time. For colorectal and upper gastrointestinal conditions, outcomes are superior with nonoperative management, whereas surgery is favored for patients with hepatopancreaticobiliary conditions. For obstructions and general abdominal conditions, results were equivalent overall. These findings may support patients, clinicians, and families making these challenging decisions.

How have firearm laws changed in states with unexpected decreases or increases in firearm homicide, 1990-2019?

Background

Firearm violence is one of the leading preventable causes of death and injury in the United States and is on the rise. While policies regulating access to firearms offer opportunities to prevent firearm-related deaths, an understanding of the holistic impact of changing state firearm policies on firearm homicide rates over the last 30 years is limited.

Objectives

To identify US states that showed unexpected decreases and increases in firearm homicide rates and summarise their firearm policy changes in the last three decades.

Methods

We analysed changes in firearm homicide rates by US state and county from 1990 to 2019. We triangulated across three estimation approaches to derive state rankings and identify the top and bottom three states which consistently showed unexpected decreases (low outliers) and increases (high outliers) in firearm homicide rates. We summarised firearm policy changes in state outliers using the RAND State Firearm Law Database.

Results

We identified New York, District of Columbia, and Hawaii as low state outliers and Delaware, New Jersey, and Missouri as high state outliers. Low state outliers made more restrictive firearm policy changes than high state outliers, which covered a wider range of policy types. Restrictive changes in high state outliers primarily targeted high-risk populations (e.g., prohibited possessors, safe storage). Specific legislative details, such as the age threshold (18 vs 21 years old) for firearm minimum age requirements, also emerged as important for differentiating low from high state outliers.

Conclusions

While no firearm law change emerged as necessary or sufficient, an accumulation of diverse restrictive firearm policies may be key to alleviating the death toll from firearm homicide.

Examining disparities among older multimorbid emergency general surgery patients: An observational study of Medicare beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Qualifying comorbidity sets (QCS) are tools used to identify multimorbid patients at increased surgical risk. It is unknown how the QCS framework for multimorbidity affects surgical risk in different racial groups.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included Medicare patients age ≥65.5 who underwent an emergency general surgery operation from 2015 to 2018. Our exposure was race and multimorbidity, included in our model as an interaction term. The primary outcome of the study was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included routine discharge, 30-day readmission, length of stay, and complications.

RESULTS

In total, 163,148 patients who underwent and operation were included in this study. Of these, 13,852 (8.5%, p < 0.001) were Black, and 149,296 (91.5%, p < 0.001) were White. Black multimorbid patients had no significant differences in 30-day mortality, routine discharge or 30-day readmission when compared to White multimorbid patients after risk-adjustment. Black multimorbid patients had significantly lower odds of complications (OR 0.89, p = 0.014) compared to White multimorbid patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study of universally insured patients highlights the critical role of pre-operative health status and its association with surgical outcomes.

Development of a Machine Learning Model to Identify Colorectal Cancer Stage in Medicare Claims

PURPOSE

Staging information is essential for colorectal cancer research. Medicare claims are an important source of population-level data but currently lack oncologic stage. We aimed to develop a claims-based model to identify stage at diagnosis in patients with colorectal cancer.

METHODS

We included patients age 66 years or older with colorectal cancer in the SEER-Medicare registry. Using patients diagnosed from 2014 to 2016, we developed models (multinomial logistic regression, elastic net regression, and random forest) to classify patients into stage I-II, III, or IV on the basis of demographics, diagnoses, and treatment utilization identified in Medicare claims. Models developed in a training cohort (2014-2016) were applied to a testing cohort (2017), and performance was evaluated using cancer stage listed in the SEER registry as the reference standard.

RESULTS

The cohort of patients with 30,543 colorectal cancer included 14,935 (48.9%) patients with stage I-II, 9,203 (30.1%) with stage III, and 6,405 (21%) with stage IV disease. A claims-based model using elastic net regression had a scaled Brier score (SBS) of 0.45 (95% CI, 0.43 to 0.46). Performance was strongest for classifying stage IV (SBS, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.59 to 0.64; sensitivity, 93%; 95% CI, 91 to 94) followed by stage I-II (SBS, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.47; sensitivity, 86%; 95% CI, 85 to 76) and stage III (SBS, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.33; sensitivity, 62%; 95% CI, 61 to 64).

CONCLUSION

Machine learning models effectively classified colorectal cancer stage using Medicare claims. These models extend the ability of claims-based research to risk-adjust and stratify by stage.

Early VTE Prophylaxis in Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Propensity Score Weighted EAST Multi-Center Study

BACKGROUND

Patients with TBI are at high risk of venous thromboembolism events (VTE). We hypothesized that early chemical VTE prophylaxis initiation (≤24 hours of a stable head CT) in severe TBI would reduce VTE without increasing risk of intracranial hemorrhage expansion (ICHE).

METHODS

A retrospective review of adult patients ≥18 years of age with isolated severe TBI (AIS ≥ 3) who were admitted to 24 level 1 and level 2 trauma centers from January 1, 2014 to December 31 2020 was conducted. Patients were divided into those who did not receive any VTE prophylaxis (NO VTEP), who received VTE prophylaxis ≤24 hours after stable head CT (VTEP ≤24) and who received VTE prophylaxis >24 hours after stable head CT (VTEP>24). Primary outcomes were VTE and ICHE. Covariate balancing propensity score weighting was utilized to balance demographic & clinical characteristics across three groups. Weighted univariate logistic regression models were estimated for VTE & ICHE with patient group as predictor of interest.

RESULTS

Of 3,936 patients, 1,784 met inclusion criteria. Incidences of VTE was significantly higher in the VTEP>24 group, with higher incidences of DVT in the group. Higher incidences of ICHE were observed in the VTEP≤24 and VTEP>24 groups. After propensity score weighting, there was a higher risk of VTE in patients in VTEP >24 compared to those in VTEP≤24 ( [OR] = 1.51; [95%CI] = 0.69-3.30; p = 0.307), however was not significant. Although, the No VTEP group had decreased odds of having ICHE compared to VTEP≤24 (OR = 0.75; 95%CI = 0.55-1.02, p = 0.070), the result was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large multi-center analysis, there were no significant differences in VTE based on timing of initiation of VTE prophylaxis. Patients who never received VTE prophylaxis had decreased odds of ICHE. Further evaluation of VTE prophylaxis in larger randomized studies will be necessary for definitive conclusions.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

level III, Therapeutic Care Management.

Youth Firearm Injury: A Review for Pediatric Critical Care Clinicians

Firearms are now the leading cause of death among youth in the United States, with rates of homicide and suicide rising even more steeply during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. These injuries and deaths have wide-ranging consequences for the physical and emotional health of youth and families. While pediatric critical care clinicians must treat the injured survivors, they can also play a role in prevention by understanding the risks and consequences of firearm injuries; taking a trauma-informed approach to the care of injured youth; counseling patients and families on firearm access; and advocating for youth safety policy and programming.

Higher center volume is significantly associated with lower mortality in trauma patients with shock

INTRODUCTION

Injured patients presenting in shock are at high risk of mortality despite numerous efforts to improve resuscitation. Identifying differences in outcomes among centers for this population could yield insights to improve performance. We hypothesized that trauma centers treating higher volumes of patients in shock would have lower risk-adjusted mortality.

METHODS

We queried the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study from 2016 to 2018 for injured patients ≥16 years of age at Level I&II trauma centers who had an initial systolic blood pressure (SBP) of <90 mmHg. We excluded patients with critical head injury (abbreviated injury score [AIS] head ≥5) and patients coming from centers with a shock patient volume of ≤10 for the study period. The primary exposure was tertile of center-level shock patient volume (low, medium, or high volume). We compared risk-adjusted mortality by tertile of volume using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model incorporating age, injury severity, mechanism, and physiology.

RESULTS

Of 1,805 included patients at 29 centers, 915 (50.7%) died. The median annual shock trauma patient volume was 9 patients for low volume centers, medium 19.5, and high 37. Median ISS was higher at high volume compared to low volume centers (22 vs 18, p <0.001). Raw mortality was 54.9% at high volume centers, 46.7% for medium, and 42.9% for low. Time elapsed from arrival to emergency department (ED) to the operating room (OR) was lower at high volume than low volume centers (median 47 vs 78 min) p = 0.003. In adjusted analysis, hazard ratio for high volume centers (referenced to low volume) was 0.76 (95% CI 0.59-0.97, p = 0.030).

CONCLUSION

After adjusting for patient physiology and injury characteristics, center-level volume is significantly associated with mortality. Future studies should seek to identify key practices associated with improved outcomes in high-volume centers. Furthermore, shock patient volume should be considered when new trauma centers are opened.

Law enforcement in the trauma bay: a survey of members of the American Academy for the Surgery of Trauma

Background

Trauma patients frequently come into contact with law enforcement officers (LEOs) during the course of their medical care, but little is known about how LEO presence affects processes of care. We surveyed members of the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) to assess their perspectives on frequency, circumstances, and implications of LEO presence in trauma bays nationwide.

Methods

Survey items addressed respondents' experience with the frequency and context of LEO presence and their perspectives on the impact of LEO presence for patients, clinical care, and public safety. Respondent demographics, professional characteristics, and practice setting were collected. The survey was distributed electronically to AAST members in September and October of 2020. Responses were compared by participant age, gender, race, ethnicity, urban versus rural location using χ2 tests.

Results

Of 234 respondents, 189 (80.7%) were attending surgeons, 169 (72.2%) identified as white, and 144 (61.5%) as male. 187 respondents (79.9%) observed LEO presence at least weekly. Respondents found LEO presence was most helpful for public safety, followed by clinical care, and then for patients. Older respondents rated LEO presence as helpful more often than younger respondents regarding the impact on patients, clinical care, and public safety (p<0.001 across all domains). When determining LEO access, respondents assessed severity of the patient's condition, the safety of emergency department staff, the safety of LEOs, and a patient's potential role as a threat to public safety.

Conclusions

Respondents described a wide range of perspectives on the impact and consequence of LEO in the trauma bay, with little policy to guide interactions. The overlap of law enforcement and healthcare in the trauma bay deserves attention from institutional and professional policymakers to preserve patient safety and autonomy and patient-centered care.

Level of evidence

IV, survey study.

Preventing the most common firearm deaths: Modifiable factors related to firearm suicide

BACKGROUND

More than 20,000 firearm suicides occur every year in America. Firearm restrictive legislation, firearm access, demographics, behavior, access to care, and socioeconomic metrics have been correlated to firearm suicide rates. Research to date has largely evaluated these contributors singularly. We aimed to evaluate them together as they exist in society. We hypothesized that state firearm laws would be associated with reduced firearm suicide rates.

METHODS

We acquired the 2013 to 2016 data for firearm suicide rates from The Centers for Disease Control Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research. Firearm laws were obtained from the State Firearms Law Database. Depression rates and access to care were obtained from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program. Population demographics, poverty, and access to social support were obtained from the American Community Survey. Firearm access estimates were retrieved from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. We used a univariate panel linear regression with fixed effect for state and firearm suicide rates as the outcome. We created a final multivariable model to determine the adjusted associations of these factors with firearm suicide rates.

RESULTS

In univariate analysis, firearm access, heavy drinking behavior, demographics, and access to care correlated to increased firearm suicide rates. The state proportion identifying as white and the proportion of those in poverty receiving food benefits correlated to decreased firearm suicide rates. In multivariable regression, only heavy drinking (β, 0.290; 95% confidence interval, 0.092-0.481; P = .004) correlated to firearm suicides rates increases.

CONCLUSIONS

During our study, few firearm laws changed. Heavy drinking behavior association with firearm suicide rates suggests an opportunity for interventions exists in the health care setting.

Injury characteristics and circumstances of firearm trauma: Assessing suicide survivors and decedents

INTRODUCTION

Despite representing fewer than 5% of suicide attempts, firearms account for over half of deaths. Yet there is little clinical information regarding firearm attempts, particularly survivors. We assessed clinical factors differentiating firearm suicide survivors from decedents, firearm attempters from other methods, and firearm attempters from similarly injured trauma patients.

METHODS

We used clinical data from the National Trauma Data Bank (2017) to assess firearm suicide attempts using cross-sectional and case-control designs. We used logistic and multinomial regression to compare groups and assess firearm type and discharge destination.

RESULTS

Older age, being uninsured, and injury location were associated with increased mortality among firearm attempters. Older age, White race, male sex, and being uninsured were associated with firearm attempts. Major psychiatric disorders were associated with firearm attempts and using a rifle or shotgun. Major psychiatric disorders, female sex, and smoking were associated with psychiatric discharge. Black and other race were associated with law enforcement discharge, and Black race was associated with lower odds of psychiatric discharge. Uninsured patients had lower odds of discharge to long-term care, psychiatric, or rehabilitation facilities.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies factors associated with firearm suicide and includes indicators of disparities in health services for patients at high risk of suicide death.

The variable role of damage control laparotomy over 19 years of trauma care in Pennsylvania

BACKGROUND

Damage control laparotomy emphasizes physiologic stabilization of critically injured patients and allows staged surgical management. However, there is little consensus on the optimal criteria for damage control laparotomy. We examined variability between centers and over time in Pennsylvania.

METHODS

We analyzed the Pennsylvania Trauma Outcomes Study data between 2000 and 2018, excluding centers performing <10 laparotomies/year. Laparotomy was defined using International Classification of Diseases codes, and damage control laparotomy was defined by a code for "reopening of recent laparotomy" or a return to the operating room >4 hours from index laparotomy that was not unplanned. We examined trends over time and by center. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to predict both damage control laparotomy and mortality, generate observed:expected ratios, and identify outliers for each. We compared risk-adjusted mortality rates to center-level damage control laparotomy rates.

RESULTS

In total, 18,896 laparotomies from 22 centers were analyzed; 3,549 damage control laparotomies were performed (18.8% of all laparotomies). The use of damage control laparotomy in Pennsylvania varied from 13.9% to 22.8% over time. There was wide variation in center-level use of damage control laparotomy, from 11.1% to 29.4%, despite adjustment. Factors associated with damage control laparotomy included injury severity and admission vital signs. Center identity improved the model as demonstrated by likelihood ratio test (P < .001), suggesting differences in center-level practices. There was minimal correlation between center-level damage control laparotomy use and mortality.

CONCLUSION

There is wide center-level variation in the use of damage control laparotomy among centers, despite adjustment for patient factors. Damage control laparotomy is both resource intensive and highly morbid; regional resources should be allocated to address this substantial practice variation to optimize damage control laparotomy use.

Rates of Surgical Consultations After Emergency Department Admission in Black and White Medicare Patients

Importance

A surgical consultation is a critical first step in the care of patients with emergency general surgery conditions. It is unknown if Black Medicare patients and White Medicare patients receive surgical consultations at similar rates when they are admitted from the emergency department.

Objective

To determine whether Black Medicare patients have similar rates of surgical consultations when compared with White Medicare patients after being admitted from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was a retrospective cohort study that took place at US hospitals with an emergency department and used a computational generalization of inverse propensity score weight to create patient populations with similar covariate distributions. Participants were Medicare patients age 65.5 years or older admitted from the emergency department for an emergency general surgery condition between July 1, 2015, and June 30, 2018. The analysis was performed during February 2022. Patients were classified into 1 of 5 emergency general surgery condition categories based on principal diagnosis codes: colorectal, general abdominal, hepatopancreatobiliary, intestinal obstruction, and upper gastrointestinal.

Exposures

Black vs White race.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Receipt of a surgical consultation after admission from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition.

Results

A total of 1 686 940 patients were included in the study. Of those included, 214 788 patients were Black (12.7%) and 1 472 152 patients were White (87.3%). After standardizing for medical and diagnostic imaging covariates, Black patients had 14% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation (odds ratio [OR], 0.86; 95% CI, 0.85-0.87) with a risk difference of -3.17 (95% CI, -3.41 to -2.92). After standardizing for socioeconomic covariates, Black patients remained at an 11% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation compared with similar White patients (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.88-0.90) with a risk difference of -2.49 (95% CI, -2.75 to -2.23). Additionally, when restricting the analysis to Black patients and White patients who were treated in the same hospitals, Black patients had 8% lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation when compared with White patients (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.90-0.93) with a risk difference of -1.82 (95% CI, -2.18 to -1.46).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, Black Medicare patients had lower odds of receiving a surgical consultation after being admitted from the emergency department with an emergency general surgery condition when compared with similar White Medicare patients. These disparities in consultation rates cannot be fully attributed to medical comorbidities, insurance status, socioeconomic factors, or individual hospital-level effects.

Analyzing Impact of Multimorbidity on Long-Term Outcomes after Emergency General Surgery: A Retrospective Observational Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of multimorbidity on long-term outcomes for older emergency general surgery patients.

STUDY DESIGN

Medicare beneficiaries, age 65 and older, who underwent operative management of an emergency general surgery condition were identified using Centers for Medicare & Medicaid claims data. Patients were classified as multimorbid based on the presence of a Qualifying Comorbidity Set (a specific combination of comorbid conditions known to be associated with increased risk of in-hospital mortality in the general surgery setting) and compared with those without multimorbidity. Risk-adjusted outcomes through 180 days after discharge from index hospitalization were calculated using linear and logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Of 174,891 included patients, 45.5% were identified as multimorbid. Multimorbid patients had higher rates of mortality during index hospitalization (5.9% vs 0.7%, odds ratio [OR] 3.05, p < 0.001) and through 6 months (17.1% vs 3.4%, OR 2.33, p < 0.001) after discharge. Multimorbid patients experienced higher rates of readmission at 1 month (22.9% vs 11.4%, OR 1.48, p < 0.001) and 6 months (38.2% vs 21.2%, OR 1.48, p < 0.001) after discharge, lower rates of discharge to home (42.5% vs 74.2%, OR 0.52, p < 0.001), higher rates of discharge to rehabilitation/nursing facility (28.3% vs 11.3%, OR 1.62, p < 0.001), greater than double the use of home oxygen, walker, wheelchair, bedside commode, and hospital bed (p < 0.001), longer length of index hospitalization (1.33 additional in-patient days, p < 0.001), and higher costs through 6 months ($5,162 additional, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older, multimorbid patients experience worse outcomes, including survival and independent function, after emergency general surgery than nonmultimorbid patients through 6 months after discharge from index hospitalization. This information is important for setting recovery expectations for high-risk patients to improve shared decision-making.

The Epidemiology of Firearm Injuries in the US: The Need for Comprehensive, Real-time, Actionable Data

This Viewpoint summarizes current data on firearm injuries in the US, discusses the limitations of available data sources, and proposes measures for a comprehensive system to track firearm injury and death

Multimorbidity Confers Greater Risk for Older Patients in Emergency General Surgery Than the Presence of Multiple Comorbidities: A Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of multimorbidity on outcomes for older emergency general surgery patients.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to understand whether having multiple comorbidities confers the same amount of risk as specific combinations of comorbidities (multimorbidity) for a patient undergoing emergency general surgery.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using state discharge data.

SUBJECTS

Medicare beneficiaries who underwent an operation for an emergency general surgery condition in New York, Florida, or Pennsylvania (2012-2013).

MEASURES

Patients were classified as multimorbid using Qualifying Comorbidity Sets (QCSs). Outcomes included in-hospital mortality, hospital length of stay and discharge status.

RESULTS

Of 312,160 patients, a large minority (37.4%) were multimorbid. Non-QCS patients did not have a specific combination of comorbidities to satisfy a QCS, but 64.1% of these patients had 3+ comorbid conditions. Multimorbidity was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (10.5% vs. 3.9%, P <0.001), decreased rates of discharge to home (16.2% vs. 37.1%, P <0.001), and longer length of stay (10.4 d±13.5 vs. 6.7 d±9.3, P <0.001) when compared with non-QCS patients. Risks varied between individual QCSs.

CONCLUSIONS

Multimorbidity, defined by satisfying a specific QCS, is strongly associated with poor outcomes for older patients requiring emergency general surgery in the United States. Variation in risk of in-hospital mortality, discharge status, and length of stay between individual QCSs suggests that multimorbidity does not carry the same prognostic weight as having multiple comorbidities-the specifics of which are important in setting expectations for individual, complex patients.

Demographic and Regional Factors Associated With Reporting Homicides of Transgender People in the United States

INTRODUCTION

The American Medical Association recently declared homicides of transgender individuals an epidemic. However, transgender homicide victims are often classified as nontransgender. Our objective was to describe existing data and coding of trans (i.e., transgender) victims and to examine the risk factors for homicides of trans people relative to nontrans people across the United States.

METHODS

A retrospective review of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Violent Death Reporting System for the years 2003-2018 identified victims defined as transgender either through the "transgender" variable or narrative reports. Fisher's exact tests and logistic regression models were run to compare the demographics of trans victims to those not identified as trans.

RESULTS

Of the 147 transgender victims identified, 14.4% were incorrectly coded as nontrans despite clear indication of trans status in the narrative description, and 6% were coded as hate crimes. Relative to nontrans victims, trans victims were more frequently Black (54.4% versus 40.7%, P = 0.001), had a mental health condition (26.5% versus 11.3%, P < 0.001), or reported being a sex worker (9.5% versus 0.2%, P < 0.001). There were disproportionately few homicides of transgender people in the South (13.6% of trans victims versus 29.1% of nontrans victims, P < 0.001). Conversely, the West and Midwest accounted for a higher-than-expected proportion of trans victims relative to nontrans victims (23.1% of trans victims versus 16.2% of nontrans victims, P = 0.03; 24.5% of trans victims versus 16.8% of nontrans victims, P = 0.02, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Though the murder of transgender individuals is a known public health crisis, inconsistencies still exist in the assessment and reporting of transgender status. Further, these individuals were more likely to have multiple distinct vulnerabilities. These findings provide important information for injury and violence prevention researchers to improve reporting of transgender status in the medical record and local trauma registries.

County-Level Variation in Changes in Firearm Mortality Rates Across the US, 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019

IMPORTANCE

Firearm violence remains a critical public health challenge, disproportionately impacting some US regions. County-level variation may hold key insights into how firearm mortality rates vary across the US.

OBJECTIVE

To model county-level changes in firearm mortality rates (total, homicide, and suicide) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 and identify and characterize hot spots showing unexpected changes over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This is a cross-sectional study with 2 time points using a novel small area estimation method to analyze restricted access mortality microdata by cause of death and US county. The analysis included 3111 US counties from 49 states and the District of Columbia from January 1, 1989, to December 31, 2019. Bayesian spatial models were fitted to map geographical variation in changes in age-standardized firearm mortality rates (per 100 000 person-years) from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019. County outliers (or hot spots) were defined as having observed rates that fell outside the 95% credible intervals of their expected posterior predictive distribution. These counties were characterized using visualization and descriptive statistics of their characteristics. Data were analyzed from June to December 2021.

EXPOSURES

County of residence.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Five-year age-standardized mortality rates by US county, age, and cause of death for 1989 to 1993 and 2015 to 2019.

RESULTS

Between 1989 and 2019, 1 036 518 firearm deaths were recorded in counties across the US. Suicide was the most common cause of firearm mortality (589 285 deaths) followed by homicide (412 231 deaths). Age-standardized rates (deaths per 100 000 individuals) for firearm deaths and suicides increased from 1989 to 1993 vs 2015 to 2019 (mean [SD] change, 0.16 [8.78] for firearm deaths and 1.21 [6.91] for suicides), while firearm homicides decreased (mean [SD] change, -0.39 [3.96]). However, these national trends were not homogeneous across counties and often varied by geographical region. The West and Midwest showed the most pronounced increases in firearm suicide rates, whereas the Southeast showed localized increases in firearm homicide rates, despite the national decreasing trend. Critical hot spots were identified in urban counties of Alabama, and firearm homicide rates (per 100 000) in Baltimore City, Maryland, almost doubled from 29.71 to 47.43, and by 2015 to 2019 it accounted for 66.7% of all firearm homicide in Maryland. By contrast, District of Columbia showed promising improvements over time, decreasing from 56.5 firearm homicides per 100 000 in 1989 to 1993 to 14.45 in 2015 to 2019.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There was substantial variation in rates and changes in firearm deaths among US counties. Geographical hot spots may be useful to inform targeted prevention efforts and local policy responses.