Mammographic screening interval in relation to tumor characteristics and false-positive risk by race/ethnicity and age

BACKGROUND

Biennial screening mammography retains most of the benefits of annual breast cancer screening with reduced harms. Whether screening guidelines based on race/ethnicity and age would be more effective than age-based guidelines is unknown.

METHODS

Mammography data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium were linked to pathology and tumor databases. The authors identified women aged 40 to 74 years who underwent annual, biennial, or triennial screening mammography between 1994 and 2008. Logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of adverse tumor characteristics among 14,396 incident breast cancer cases and 10-year cumulative risks of false-positive recall and biopsy recommendation among 1,276,312 noncases.

RESULTS

No increased risk of adverse tumor characteristics associated with biennial versus annual screening were noted in white women, black women, Hispanic women aged 40 to 49 years, or Asian women aged 50 to 74 years. Hispanic women aged 50 to 74 years who screened biennially versus annually were found to have an increased risk of late-stage disease (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.0-2.5) and large tumors (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4). Asian women aged 40 to 49 years who underwent biennial screening had an elevated risk of positive lymph nodes (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.3-7.1). No elevated risks were associated with triennial versus biennial screening. Cumulative false-positive risks decreased markedly with a longer screening interval.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors found limited evidence of elevated risks of adverse tumor characteristics with biennial versus annual screening, whereas cumulative false-positive risks were lower. However, elevated risks of late-stage disease in Hispanic women and lymph node-positive disease in younger Asian women who screened less often than annually warrant consideration and replication.

Benign breast disease, mammographic breast density, and the risk of breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Benign breast disease and high breast density are prevalent, strong risk factors for breast cancer. Women with both risk factors may be at very high risk.

METHODS

We included 42818 women participating in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium who had no prior diagnosis of breast cancer and had undergone at least one benign breast biopsy and mammogram; 1359 women developed incident breast cancer in 6.1 years of follow-up (78.1% invasive, 21.9% ductal carcinoma in situ). We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox regression analysis. The referent group was women with nonproliferative changes and average density. All P values are two-sided.

RESULTS

Benign breast disease and breast density were independently associated with breast cancer. The combination of atypical hyperplasia and very high density was uncommon (0.6% of biopsies) but was associated with the highest risk for breast cancer (HR = 5.34; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.52 to 8.09, P < .001). Proliferative disease without atypia (25.6% of biopsies) was associated with elevated risk that varied little across levels of density: average (HR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.69, P = .003), high (HR = 2.02; 95% CI = 1.68 to 2.44, P < .001), or very high (HR = 2.05; 95% CI = 1.54 to 2.72, P < .001). Low breast density (4.5% of biopsies) was associated with low risk (HRs <1) for all benign pathology diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Women with high breast density and proliferative benign breast disease are at very high risk for future breast cancer. Women with low breast density are at low risk, regardless of their benign pathologic diagnosis.

Outcomes of screening mammography by frequency, breast density, and postmenopausal hormone therapy

IMPORTANCE

Controversy exists about the frequency women should undergo screening mammography and whether screening interval should vary according to risk factors beyond age.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the benefits and harms of screening mammography frequencies according to age, breast density, and postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) use.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort.

SETTING

Data collected January 1994 to December 2008 from mammography facilities in community practice that participate in the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) mammography registries.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were collected prospectively on 11,474 women with breast cancer and 922,624 without breast cancer who underwent mammography at facilities that participate in the BCSC.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

We used logistic regression to calculate the odds of advanced stage (IIb, III, or IV) and large tumors (>20 mm in diameter) and 10-year cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result by screening frequency, age, breast density, and HT use. The main predictor was screening mammography interval.

RESULTS

Mammography biennially vs annually for women aged 50 to 74 years does not increase risk of tumors with advanced stage or large size regardless of women's breast density or HT use. Among women aged 40 to 49 years with extremely dense breasts, biennial mammography vs annual is associated with increased risk of advanced-stage cancer (odds ratio [OR], 1.89; 95% CI, 1.06-3.39) and large tumors (OR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.37-4.18). Cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result was high among women undergoing annual mammography with extremely dense breasts who were either aged 40 to 49 years (65.5%) or used estrogen plus progestogen (65.8%) and was lower among women aged 50 to 74 years who underwent biennial or triennial mammography with scattered fibroglandular densities (30.7% and 21.9%, respectively) or fatty breasts (17.4% and 12.1%, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Women aged 50 to 74 years, even those with high breast density or HT use, who undergo biennial screening mammography have similar risk of advanced-stage disease and lower cumulative risk of false-positive results than those who undergo annual mammography. When deciding whether to undergo mammography, women aged 40 to 49 years who have extremely dense breasts should be informed that annual mammography may minimize their risk of advanced-stage disease but the cumulative risk of false-positive results is high.

Screening outcomes in older US women undergoing multiple mammograms in community practice: does interval, age, or comorbidity score affect tumor characteristics or false positive rates?

Background Uncertainty exists about the appropriate use of screening mammography among older women because comorbid illnesses may diminish the benefit of screening. We examined the risk of adverse tumor characteristics and false positive rates according to screening interval, age, and comorbidity. Methods From January 1999 to December 2006, data were collected prospectively on 2993 older women with breast cancer and 137 949 older women without breast cancer who underwent mammography at facilities that participated in a data linkage between the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium and Medicare claims. Women were aged 66 to 89 years at study entry to allow for measurement of 1 year of preexisting illnesses. We used logistic regression analyses to calculate the odds of advanced (IIb, III, IV) stage, large (>20 millimeters) tumors, and 10-year cumulative probability of false-positive mammography by screening frequency (1 vs 2 years), age, and comorbidity score. The comorbidity score was derived using the Klabunde approximation of the Charlson score. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Adverse tumor characteristics did not differ statistically significantly by comorbidity, age, or interval. Cumulative probability of a false-positive mammography result was higher among annual screeners than biennial screeners irrespective of comorbidity: 48.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46.1% to 49.9%) of annual screeners aged 66 to 74 years had a false-positive result compared with 29.0% (95% CI = 28.1% to 29.9%) of biennial screeners. Conclusion Women aged 66 to 89 years who undergo biennial screening mammography have similar risk of advanced-stage disease and lower cumulative risk of a false-positive recommendation than annual screeners, regardless of comorbidity.

Risk factors for breast cancer for women aged 40 to 49 years: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Identifying risk factors for breast cancer specific to women in their 40s could inform screening decisions.

PURPOSE

To determine what factors increase risk for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years and the magnitude of risk for each factor.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (January 1996 to the second week of November 2011), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (fourth quarter of 2011), Scopus, reference lists of published studies, and the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium.

STUDY SELECTION

English-language studies and systematic reviews of risk factors for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years. Additional inclusion criteria were applied for each risk factor.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data on participants, study design, analysis, follow-up, and outcomes were abstracted. Study quality was rated by using established criteria, and only studies rated as good or fair were included. Results were summarized by using meta-analysis when sufficient studies were available or from the best evidence based on study quality, size, and applicability when meta-analysis was not possible. Data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium were analyzed with proportional hazards models by using partly conditional Cox regression. Reference groups for comparisons were set at U.S. population means.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Sixty-six studies provided data for estimates. Extremely dense breasts on mammography or first-degree relatives with breast cancer were associated with at least a 2-fold increase in risk for breast cancer. Prior breast biopsy, second-degree relatives with breast cancer, or heterogeneously dense breasts were associated with a 1.5- to 2.0-fold increased risk; current use of oral contraceptives, nulliparity, and age 30 years or older at first birth were associated with a 1.0- to 1.5-fold increased risk.

LIMITATIONS

Studies varied by measures, reference groups, and adjustment for confounders, which could bias combined estimates. Effects of multiple risk factors were not considered.

CONCLUSION

Extremely dense breasts and first-degree relatives with breast cancer were each associated with at least a 2-fold increase in risk for breast cancer in women aged 40 to 49 years. Identification of these risk factors may be useful for personalized mammography screening.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Cancer Institute.

Breast density, body mass index, and risk of tumor marker-defined subtypes of breast cancer

PURPOSE

Breast density and body mass index (BMI) are correlated attributes and are both potentially modifiable risk factors for breast cancer. However, relationships between these factors and risk of molecularly-defined subtypes of breast cancer have not been established.

METHODS

We used breast density and BMI data collected by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium from 1,054,466 women ages 40 to 84 years receiving mammography, including 13,797 women subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer. Cases were classified into three groups on the basis of expression of the estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and HER2:1) ER-positive (ER+, n = 10,026), 2) HER2-expressing (ER-negative/PR-negative/HER2-positive, n = 308), or triple-negative (ER-negative/PR-negative/HER2-negative, n = 705). Using Cox regression, we evaluated subtype-specific associations with breast density and BMI.

RESULTS

Breast density was similarly positively associated with risk of all subtypes, especially among women ages 40 to 64 years. BMI was positively associated with risks of ER+ and triple-negative breast cancer in women ages 50 to 84 who were not users of hormone therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Breast density is positively associated with breast cancer risk, regardless of disease subtype. Associations with BMI appear to vary more by breast cancer subtype. Additional studies are needed to confirm and further characterize risk factors for HER2-expressing and triple-negative breast cancer.

Hospitalization for infection and risk of acute ischemic stroke: the Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Little is known about the acute precipitants of ischemic stroke, although evidence suggests infections contribute to risk. We hypothesized that acute hospitalization for infection is associated with the short-term risk of stroke.

METHODS

The case-crossover design was used to compare hospitalization for infection during case periods (90, 30, or 14 days before an incident ischemic stroke) and control periods (equivalent time periods exactly 1 or 2 years before stroke) in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a population-based cohort of 5888 elderly participants from 4 US sites. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated by conditional logistic regression. Confirmatory analyses assessed hazard ratios of stroke from Cox regression models, with hospitalization for infection as a time-varying exposure.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.2 years, 669 incident ischemic strokes were observed in participants without a baseline history of stroke. Hospitalization for infection was more likely during case than control time periods; for 90 days before stroke, OR=3.4 (95% CI, 1.8 to 6.5). The point estimates of risks were higher when we examined shorter intervals: for 30 days, OR=7.3 (95% CI, 1.9 to 40.9), and for 14 days, OR=8.0 (95% CI, 1.7 to 77.3). In survival analyses, risk of stroke was associated with hospitalization for infection in the preceding 90 days, adjusted hazard ratio=2.4 (95% CI, 1.6 to 3.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalization for infection is associated with a short-term increased risk of stroke, with higher risks observed for shorter intervals preceding stroke.

The contribution of a 9p21.3 variant, a KIF6 variant, and C-reactive protein to predicting risk of myocardial infarction in a prospective study

Background

Genetic risk factors might improve prediction of coronary events. Several variants at chromosome 9p21.3 have been widely reported to be associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) in prospective and case-control studies. A variant of KIF6 (719Arg) has also been reported to be associated with increased risk of CHD in large prospective studies, but not in case-control studies. We asked whether the addition of genetic information (the 9p21.3 or KIF6 variants) or a well-established non-genetic risk factor (C-reactive protein [CRP]) can improve risk prediction by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS)--a prospective observational study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease among > 5,000 participants aged 65 or older.

Methods

Improvement of risk prediction was assessed by change in the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) and by net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

Among white participants the FRS was improved by addition of KIF6 719Arg carrier status among men as assessed by the AUC (from 0.581 to 0.596, P = 0.03) but not by NRI (NRI = 0.027, P = 0.32). Adding both CRP and 719Arg carrier status to the FRS improved risk prediction by the AUC (0.608, P = 0.02) and NRI (0.093, P = 0.008) in men, but not women (P ≥ 0.24).

Conclusions

While none of these risk markers individually or in combination improved risk prediction among women, a combination of KIF6 719Arg carrier status and CRP levels modestly improved risk prediction among white men; although this improvement is not significant after multiple-testing correction. These observations should be investigated in other prospective studies.

Association of coagulation-related and inflammation-related genes and factor VIIc levels with stroke: the Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND

Thrombosis and inflammation are critical in stroke etiology, but associations of coagulation and inflammation gene variants with stroke, and particularly factor VII levels, are inconclusive.

OBJECTIVES

To test the associations between 736 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) between tagging haplotype patterns of 130 coagulation and inflammation genes, and stroke events, in the 5888 participants aged ≥ 65 years of the observational Cardiovascular Health Study cohort.

PATIENTS/METHODS

With 16 years of follow-up, age-adjusted and sex-adjusted Cox models were used to estimate associations of SNPs and FVIIc levels with future stroke.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and fifteen strokes occurred in 5255 genotyped participants without baseline stroke (748 ischemic strokes; 586 among whites). Among whites, six SNPs were associated with stroke, with a nominal P-value of < 0.01: rs6046 and rs3093261 (F7); rs4918851 and rs3781387 (HABP2); and rs3138055 (NFKB1A) and rs4648004 (NFKB1). Two of these SNPs were associated with FVIIc levels (units of percentage activity): rs6046 (β = -18.5, P = 2.38 × 10(-83)) and rs3093261 (β = 2.99, P = 3.93 × 10(-6)). After adjustment for age, sex, race, and cardiovascular risk factors, the association of FVIIc quintiles (Q) with stroke were as follows (hazard ratio; 95% confidence interval): Q1, reference; Q2, 1.4, 1.1-1.9); Q3, 1.1, 0.8-1.5); Q4, 1.5, 1.1-2.0); and Q5, 1.6, 1.2-2.2). Associations between SNPs and stroke were independent of FVIIc levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Variations in FVII-related genes and FVIIc levels were associated with risk of incident ischemic stroke in this elderly cohort, suggesting a potential causal role for FVII in stroke etiology.

Gender differences in tea, coffee, and cognitive decline in the elderly: the Cardiovascular Health Study

Although caffeine can enhance cognitive function acutely, long-term effects of consumption of caffeine-containing beverages such as tea and coffee are uncertain. Data on 4,809 participants aged 65 and older from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) were used to examine the relationship of consumption of tea and coffee, assessed by food frequency questionnaire, on change in cognitive function by gender. Cognitive performance was assessed using serial Modified Mini-Mental State (3MS) examinations, which were administered annually up to 9 times. Linear mixed models were used to estimate rates of change in standard 3MS scores and scores modeled using item response theory (IRT). Models were adjusted for age, education, smoking status, clinic site, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, coronary heart disease, depression score, and APOE genotype. Over the median 7.9 years of follow-up, participants who did not consume tea or coffee declined annually an average of 1.30 points (women) and 1.11 points (men) on standard 3MS scores. In fully adjusted models using either standard or IRT 3MS scores, we found modestly reduced rates of cognitive decline for some, but not all, levels of coffee and tea consumption for women, with no consistent effect for men. Caffeine consumption was also associated with attenuation in cognitive decline in women. Dose-response relationships were not linear. These longitudinal analyses suggest a somewhat attenuated rate of cognitive decline among tea and coffee consumers compared to non-consumers in women but not in men. Whether this association is causal or due to unmeasured confounding requires further study.

Albuminuria and the risk of incident stroke and stroke types in older adults

BACKGROUND

The kidney biomarker that best reflects risk of stroke is unknown. We sought to evaluate the association of stroke with 3 kidney biomarkers: albuminuria, cystatin C, and glomerular filtration rate.

METHODS

These 3 biomarkers were determined in 3,287 participants without history of stroke from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal cohort study of men and women age 65 years and older from 4 US communities. The biomarkers were albuminuria ascertained using urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) from morning spot urine, creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and cystatin C. Outcomes were incident stroke (any, ischemic, or hemorrhagic) during follow-up between 1996 and 2006.

RESULTS

A total of 390 participants had an incident stroke: 81% ischemic, 12% hemorrhagic, and 7% unclassified. In adjusted Cox regression models, UACR was more strongly related to any stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke than eGFR and cystatin C. The hazard ratio (HR) of any stroke comparing the top to bottom quintile of UACR was 2.10 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.47-3.00), while HR for eGFR was 1.29 (95% CI 0.91-1.84) and for cystatin C was 1.22 (95% CI 0.85-1.74). When considering clinically relevant categories, elevated UACR was associated with increased hazard of any stroke and ischemic stroke regardless of eGFR or cystatin C categories.

CONCLUSIONS

UACR was the kidney biomarker most strongly associated with risk of incident stroke. Results in this elderly cohort may not be applicable to younger populations. These findings suggest that measures of glomerular filtration and permeability have differential effects on stroke risk.

Trajectories of neighborhood poverty and associations with subclinical atherosclerosis and associated risk factors: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

The authors used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and latent trajectory class modeling to determine patterns of neighborhood poverty over 20 years (1980-2000 residential history questionnaires were geocoded and linked to US Census data). Using these patterns, the authors examined 1) whether trajectories of neighborhood poverty were associated with differences in the amount of subclinical atherosclerosis (common carotid intimal-media thickness) and 2) associated risk factors (body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, current smoking) at baseline (January 2000-August 2002). The authors found evidence of 5 stable trajectory groups with differing levels of neighborhood poverty ( approximately 6%, 12%, 20%, 30%, and 45%) and 1 group with 29% poverty in 1980 and approximately 11% in 2000. Mostly for women, higher cumulative neighborhood poverty was generally significantly associated with worse cardiovascular outcomes. Trends generally persisted after adjustment for adulthood socioeconomic position and race/ethnicity, although they were no longer statistically significant. Among women who had moved during the 20 years, the long-term measure had stronger associations with outcomes (except smoking) than a single, contemporaneous measure. Results indicate that cumulative 20-year exposure to neighborhood poverty is associated with greater cardiovascular risk for women. In residentially mobile populations, single-point-in-time measures underestimate long-term effects.

Ginkgo biloba for preventing cognitive decline in older adults: a randomized trial

CONTEXT

The herbal product Ginkgo biloba is taken frequently with the intention of improving cognitive health in aging. However, evidence from adequately powered clinical trials is lacking regarding its effect on long-term cognitive functioning.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether G. biloba slows the rates of global or domain-specific cognitive decline in older adults.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The Ginkgo Evaluation of Memory (GEM) study, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial of 3069 community-dwelling participants aged 72 to 96 years, conducted in 6 academic medical centers in the United States between 2000 and 2008, with a median follow-up of 6.1 years.

INTERVENTION

Twice-daily dose of 120-mg extract of G. biloba (n = 1545) or identical-appearing placebo (n = 1524).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Rates of change over time in the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MSE), in the cognitive subscale of the Alzheimer Disease Assessment Scale (ADAS-Cog), and in neuropsychological domains of memory, attention, visual-spatial construction, language, and executive functions, based on sums of z scores of individual tests.

RESULTS

Annual rates of decline in z scores did not differ between G. biloba and placebo groups in any domains, including memory (0.043; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.034-0.051 vs 0.041; 95% CI, 0.032-0.050), attention (0.043; 95% CI, 0.037-0.050 vs 0.048; 95% CI, 0.041-0.054), visuospatial abilities (0.107; 95% CI, 0.097-0.117 vs 0.118; 95% CI, 0.108-0.128), language (0.045; 95% CI, 0.037-0.054 vs 0.041; 95% CI, 0.033-0.048), and executive functions (0.092; 95% CI, 0.086-0.099 vs 0.089; 95% CI, 0.082-0.096). For the 3MSE and ADAS-Cog, rates of change varied by baseline cognitive status (mild cognitive impairment), but there were no differences in rates of change between treatment groups (for 3MSE, P = .71; for ADAS-Cog, P = .97). There was no significant effect modification of treatment on rate of decline by age, sex, race, education, APOE*E4 allele, or baseline mild cognitive impairment (P > .05).

CONCLUSION

Compared with placebo, the use of G. biloba, 120 mg twice daily, did not result in less cognitive decline in older adults with normal cognition or with mild cognitive impairment.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00010803.

CRP gene variation and risk of community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

CRP has several potentially antibacterial effects, and variation in the CRP gene is known to influence CRP levels. Whether this variation influences risk of infection, and hence whether CRP has anti-infective activity in humans, is uncertain.

METHODS

We evaluated a series of haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms among 5374 individuals in the Cardiovascular Health Study, a cohort of older adults from four communities, who were followed for community-acquired pneumonia for 12-13 years. Secondarily, we evaluated whether these polymorphisms varied among men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study who self-reported pneumonia on biennial questionnaires.

RESULTS

There were 581 (507 white and 74 black) Cardiovascular Health Study participants with incident hospitalizations for pneumonia. No single nucleotide polymorphism or haplotypes were associated with risk among white Cardiovascular Health Study participants. Among black participants, the haplotype tagged by A790T was associated with lower risk of incident pneumonia (hazard ratio 0.5; 95% confidence interval: 0.3-0.9) and with higher CRP levels. In Health Professionals Follow-up Study, a separate haplotype was associated with less frequent self-reported pneumonia but not with circulating CRP levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Some genetic variants in CRP may be associated with risk of pneumonia, but haplotypes associated with risk are variably associated with baseline CRP levels. If CRP is a relevant component of innate immunity in humans, the inducibility or tissue-specificity of expression may be at least as important as chronic circulating levels.

Trajectories of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate predict mortality in older adults: the cardiovascular health study

BACKGROUND

Dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) has been proposed as an antiaging hormone, but its importance is unclear. Assessment of an individual's ability to maintain a DHEAS set point, through examination of multiple DHEAS levels over time, may provide insight into biologic aging.

METHODS

Using Cox proportional hazard models, we examined the relationship between DHEAS trajectory patterns and all-cause death in 950 individuals aged >or=65 years who were enrolled in the Cardiovascular Health Study and had DHEAS levels measured at three to six time points.

RESULTS

Overall, there was a slight decline in DHEAS levels over time (-0.013 microg/mL/y). Three trajectory components were examined: slope, variability, and baseline DHEAS. When examined individually, a steep decline or extreme variability in DHEAS levels was associated with higher mortality (p < .001 for each), whereas baseline DHEAS level was not. In adjusted models including all three components, steep decline (hazard ratio [HR] 1.75, confidence interval [CI] 1.32-2.33) and extreme variability (HR 1.89, CI 1.47-2.43) remained significant predictors of mortality, whereas baseline DHEAS level remained unpredictive of mortality (HR 0.97 per standard deviation, CI 0.88-1.07). The effect of trajectory pattern was more pronounced in men than in women. Individuals with both a steep decline and extreme variability in DHEAS levels had a significantly higher death rate than those with neither pattern (141 vs 48 deaths per 1,000 person-years, p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show significant heterogeneity in the individual trajectories of DHEAS levels and suggest that these trajectories provide important biologic information about the rate of aging, whereas the DHEAS level itself does not.

Midlife and late-life obesity and the risk of dementia: cardiovascular health study

BACKGROUND

While high adiposity in middle age appears to be related to greater dementia risk, studies exploring this association in the elderly are conflicting.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate associations between midlife and late-life obesity and risk of dementia.

DESIGN

Prospective study with mean follow-up of 5.4 years (1992-1994 through 1999).

SETTING

Community-dwelling sample in 4 US sites recruited from Medicare eligibility files.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2798 adults without dementia (mean age, 74.7 years; 59.1% women) participating in the Cardiovascular Health Study who underwent magnetic resonance imaging were measured for height and weight at baseline at age 65 years or older (late life), and self-reported weight at age 50 years (midlife). Body mass index (BMI) (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) was calculated at both times.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Dementia, Alzheimer disease, and vascular dementia classified by a multidisciplinary committee using standardized criteria.

RESULTS

Classification resulted in 480 persons with incident dementia, 245 with Alzheimer disease (no vascular dementia), and 213 with vascular dementia (with or without Alzheimer disease). In evaluations of midlife obesity, an increased risk of dementia was found for obese (BMI >30) vs normal-weight (BMI 20-25) persons, adjusted for demographics (hazard ratio [HR], 1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.87) and for cardiovascular risk factors (1.36; 0.94-1.95). The risk estimates were reversed in assessments of late-life BMI. Underweight persons (BMI <20) had an increased risk of dementia (1.62; 1.02-2.64), whereas being overweight (BMI >25-30) was not associated (0.92; 0.72-1.18) and being obese reduced the risk of dementia (0.63; 0.44-0.91) compared with those with normal BMI.

CONCLUSION

These results help explain the "obesity paradox" as differences in dementia risk across time are consistent with physical changes in the trajectory toward disability.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of neighborhood cohesion and stressors with depressive symptoms in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis

PURPOSE

This study examined associations of neighborhood social cohesion, violence, and aesthetic quality with depressive symptoms among 2,619 healthy adults aged 45-84 years enrolled in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

METHODS

Neighborhood characteristics were estimated by surveying a separate sample of area residents. Measures of aesthetic environment, social cohesion, and violence were combined into a summary score with increasing scores indicating more favorable environments. Depressive symptoms were measured using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression (CES-D) scale. Marginal maximum likelihood estimation was used to assess associations of neighborhood characteristics with CES-D score at baseline and with the odds of developing incident depression (CES-D score >/=16 or use of antidepressants) over a 4-5 year follow-up among persons with CES-D less than 16 at baseline. Models were adjusted for age, income, education, and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

Lower levels of social cohesion and aesthetic quality and higher levels of violence were associated with higher mean CES-D scores in men and women (P for trend <0.01, adjusted mean difference in CES-D per 1 SD increase in summary score -1.01 [95% confidence interval = -1.85, -0.17] and -1.08 [95% confidence interval = -1.88, -0.28] in men and women, respectively). Associations of neighborhood characteristics with incident depression were in the expected direction for women but confidence intervals were wide (odds ratio of incident depression = 0.89 [0.63, 1.26]). No association was seen for men (odds ratio = 0.96 [0.74, 1.25]).

CONCLUSION

Neighborhood social cohesion, aesthetic quality, and violence are associated with the presence of depressive symptoms in residents.

Gene variants associated with ischemic stroke: the cardiovascular health study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to determine whether 74 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which had been associated with coronary heart disease, are associated with incident ischemic stroke.

METHODS

Based on antecedent studies of coronary heart disease, we prespecified the risk allele for each of the 74 SNPs. We used Cox proportional hazards models that adjusted for traditional risk factors to estimate the associations of these SNPs with incident ischemic stroke during 14 years of follow-up in a population-based study of older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS).

RESULTS

In white CHS participants, the prespecified risk alleles of 7 of the 74 SNPs (in HPS1, ITGAE, ABCG2, MYH15, FSTL4, CALM1, and BAT2) were nominally associated with increased risk of stroke (one-sided P<0.05, false discovery rate=0.42). In black participants, the prespecified risk alleles of 5 SNPs (in KRT4, LY6G5B, EDG1, DMXL2, and ABCG2) were nominally associated with stroke (one-sided P<0.05, false discovery rate=0.55). The Val12Met SNP in ABCG2 was associated with stroke in both white (hazard ratio, 1.46; 90% CI, 1.05 to 2.03) and black (hazard ratio, 3.59; 90% CI, 1.11 to 11.6) participants of CHS. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the 10-year cumulative incidence of stroke were greater among Val allele homozygotes than among Met allele carriers in both white (10% versus 6%) and black (12% versus 3%) participants of CHS.

CONCLUSIONS

The Val12Met SNP in ABCG2 (encoding a transporter of sterols and xenobiotics) was associated with incident ischemic stroke in white and black participants of CHS.

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 and risk of venous thrombosis in older adults

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) is an enzyme involved in inflammation and platelet function. Inherited deficiency and elevated levels are associated with atherosclerosis. Given potential common etiologies of atherosclerosis and venous thrombosis (VT), we hypothesized that low and high Lp-PLA2 would be associated with VT risk. Lp-PLA(2) mass and activity were measured in baseline samples of Cardiovascular Health Study participants (5,888 men and women age > or =65), excluding 354 reporting pre-baseline VT. The study endpoint was VT unrelated to cancer after 11.6 years follow-up. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models, adjusting for age, race, sex, and body-mass index. With 129 cases of VT, there was no association of Lp-PLA2 activity with risk. Adjusted hazard ratios were 1.19 (CI 0.62, 2.29) and 0.87 (CI 0.43, 1.76) for the lowest and highest decile, respectively, compared to the 10-25th percentile. Corresponding hazard ratios for Lp-PLA2 mass were 1.63 (CI 0.79, 3.34) and 1.33 (CI 0.61, 2.87). Results were robust to several definitions of low or high Lp-PLA2. While the association of Lp-PLA(2) levels with arterial disease events implies a role for this enzyme in atherogenesis, our findings suggest that it is not prothrombotic.

Biomarkers of Inflammation and MRI-Defined Small Vessel Disease of the Brain: The Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To clarify the role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of small vessel disease of the brain, we investigated the association between common variation in the C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin (IL)-6 genes, plasma CRP and IL6 levels, and presence of MRI-defined white matter lesions (WML) and brain infarcts (BI) in elderly participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study.

METHODS

Tag single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CRP and IL6 genes were selected from the SeattleSNPs database. In cross-sectional analyses, logistic regression models adjusting for known cardiovascular disease risk factors were constructed to assess the associations of plasma CRP and IL6 levels and common CRP and IL6 gene haplotypes with presence of WML or BI in Blacks (n=532) and Whites (n=2905).

RESULTS

Plasma IL6 and CRP levels were associated with presence of WML and BI in both races. In Whites, common haplotypes of the IL6 gene were significantly associated with WML and BI. The common haplotype tagged by the -174G/C promoter polymorphism was associated with an increased risk of WML (OR=1.14; 95% CI: [1.02; 1.28]). The common haplotype tagged by the -572G/C promoter polymorphism was associated with an increased risk of BI (OR=1.57; 95% CI: [1.15; 2.14]). Significant associations were lacking for WML or BI with IL6 gene variation in Blacks, or with CRP gene variation in either race.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of a genetic basis underlying the relationship between plasma biomarkers of inflammation and small vessel disease of the brain. Further studies to elucidate the specific role of IL6 in disease pathogenesis are warranted.

Weight, mortality, years of healthy life, and active life expectancy in older adults

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether weight categories predict subsequent mortality and morbidity in older adults.

DESIGN

Multistate life tables, using data from the Cardiovascular Health Study, a longitudinal population-based cohort of older adults.

SETTING

Data were provided by community-dwelling seniors in four U.S. counties: Forsyth County, North Carolina; Sacramento County, California; Washington County, Maryland; and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania.

PARTICIPANTS

Five thousand eight hundred eighty-eight adults aged 65 and older at baseline.

MEASUREMENTS

The age- and sex-specific probabilities of transition from one health state to another and from one weight category to another were estimated. From these probabilities, future life expectancy, years of healthy life, active life expectancy, and the number of years spent in each weight and health category after age 65 were estimated.

RESULTS

Women who are healthy and of normal weight at age 65 have a life expectancy of 22.1 years. Of that, they spend, on average, 9.6 years as overweight or obese and 5.3 years in fair or poor health. For both men and women, being underweight at age 65 was associated with worse outcomes than being normal weight, whereas being overweight or obese was rarely associated with worse outcomes than being normal weight and was sometimes associated with significantly better outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Similar to middle-aged populations, older adults are likely to be or to become overweight or obese, but higher weight is not associated with worse health in this age group. Thus, the number of older adults at a "healthy" weight may be much higher than currently believed.

Association of gene variants with incident myocardial infarction in the Cardiovascular Health Study

OBJECTIVE

We asked whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that had been nominally associated with cardiovascular disease in antecedent studies were also associated with cardiovascular disease in a population-based prospective study of 4522 individuals aged 65 or older.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Based on antecedent studies, we prespecified a risk allele and an inheritance model for each of 74 SNPs. We then tested the association of these SNPs with myocardial infarction (MI) in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS). The prespecified risk alleles of 8 SNPs were nominally associated (1-sided P<0.05) with increased risk of MI in White CHS participants. The false discovery rate for these 8 was 0.43, suggesting that about 4 of these 8 are likely to be true positives. The 4 of these 8 SNPs that had the strongest evidence for association with cardiovascular disease before testing in CHS (association in 3 antecedent studies) were in KIF6 (CHS HR=1.29; 90%CI 1.1 to 1.52), VAMP8 (HR=1.2; 90%CI 1.02 to 1.41), TAS2R50 (HR=1.13; 90%CI 1 to 1.27), and LPA (HR=1.62; 90%CI 1.09 to 2.42).

CONCLUSIONS

Although most of the SNPs investigated were not associated with MI in CHS, evidence from this investigation combined with previous studies suggests that 4 of these SNPs are likely associated with MI.

Association of insulin resistance with distance to wealthy areas: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis

Little is known about environmental determinants of type 2 diabetes. The authors hypothesized that insulin resistance is positively related to distance to a wealthy area and to local neighborhood poverty. Data were derived from The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a study of adults aged 45-84 years in six US locales, and the 2000 US Census. The homeostasis model assessment (HOMA) index was used to measure insulin resistance. Linear regression was used to estimate associations between area characteristics and insulin resistance after adjustment for age, sex, income, education, and race/ethnicity and for the potential mediators diet, physical activity, and body mass index (n = 4,821). Among persons not treated for diabetes, distance to a wealthy area was associated with HOMA independent of local poverty and person-level covariates: per 4.4-km change, the relative increase in HOMA was 13% (95% confidence interval: 7%, 19%), similar to the effect of a body mass index increase of 1.7 kg/m(2) on HOMA. This association was reduced after adjustment for physical activity, diet, and body mass index (relative increase = 9%, 95% confidence interval: 3%, 15%). Local neighborhood poverty was also positively, but more weakly associated with insulin resistance, with no association after adjustment for race/ethnicity. This study shows that proximity to resources in high-income areas is related to insulin resistance.