Can "deaths of despair" serve as a focus for planning and evaluating clinical and preventive services for Veterans?

Deaths of despair, a composite outcome including suicide and drug- and alcohol-related deaths, have been increasing, especially in subpopulations and geographic areas sensitive to economic and social hardships. The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has begun evaluating the utility of this concept to guide planning and evaluations of clinical and preventive services for Veterans. In this study, mortality rates for middle-aged American men for 2013 to 2017 were from CDC WONDER, and rates for all Veterans, those using VHA healthcare services (VHA-utilizers), and other (non-VHA) Veterans were derived from National Death Index data. Findings demonstrated that rates for the composite were higher in VHA-utilizers and lower in non-VHA Veterans than middle-aged American men, consistent with use of VHA services by Veterans with the greatest needs. State rates in Veteran men were significantly and positively correlated with state rates for American men, and both were correlated with other characteristics of the social environment. The lack of correlation between rates for suicide and drug-related deaths indicates that deaths of despair cannot be modeled by assuming parallel paths from reactions to community-based stressors to the component outcomes; models should allow for an impact of community characteristics on partitioning between outcomes.

Critical Periods for Increased Mortality After Discharge From Inpatient Mental Health Units: Opportunities for Prevention

OBJECTIVE

Studies of patients in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health system and elsewhere have documented elevated mortality from suicide during a critical period within 30 to 90 days after discharge from inpatient mental health units. To support program planning, VA evaluated whether the elevated mortality during this critical period was specific to suicide or whether there were similar increases in other causes of death.

METHODS

Indicators of age, gender, inpatient diagnoses, and suicide attempts and ideation from VA records were combined with indicators of vital status and cause of death from the National Death Index. Analyses compared all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the first 30 and 90 days postdischarge with mortality in days 91 to 365 after discharge for the 106,430 VA patients discharged from inpatient mental health units in 2013-2014.

RESULTS

Elevated mortality during the first 30 and first 90 days after discharge was not specific to suicide. Higher rates of all-cause mortality were noted, including elevated mortality due to external causes other than suicide among young and middle-aged patients (ages 18-64) during the first 30 days and among older patients (≥65) during the first 90 days. An increase in natural-cause mortality among older patients was attributable to greater mortality among those with dementia diagnoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated rates of nonsuicide external-cause mortality in the critical period within 30 to 90 days after discharge from inpatient mental health care suggest important opportunities for prevention. Greater mortality among patients with dementia or related neurodegenerative diseases raises questions regarding current strategies for managing behavioral symptoms and transitions to end-of-life care.

Developing a practical suicide risk prediction model for targeting high-risk patients in the Veterans health Administration

OBJECTIVES

The US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has begun using predictive modeling to identify Veterans at high suicide risk to target care. Initial analyses are reported here.

METHODS

A penalized logistic regression model was compared with an earlier proof-of-concept logistic model. Exploratory analyses then considered commonly-used machine learning algorithms. Analyses were based on electronic medical records for all 6,360 individuals classified in the National Death Index as having died by suicide in fiscal years 2009-2011 who used VHA services the year of their death or prior year and a 1% probability sample of time-matched VHA service users alive at the index date (n = 2,112,008).

RESULTS

A penalized logistic model with 61 predictors had sensitivity comparable to the proof-of-concept model (which had 381 predictors) at target thresholds. The machine learning algorithms had relatively similar sensitivities, the highest being for Bayesian additive regression trees, with 10.7% of suicides occurred among the 1.0% of Veterans with highest predicted risk and 28.1% among the 5.0% of with highest predicted risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on these results, VHA is using penalized logistic regression in initial intervention implementation. The paper concludes with a discussion of other practical issues that might be explored to increase model performance.

Substance use disorders and the risk of suicide mortality among men and women in the US Veterans Health Administration

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Limited information is available regarding links between specific substance use disorders (SUDs) and suicide mortality; however, the preliminary evidence that is available suggests that suicide risk associated with SUDs may differ for men and women. This study aimed to estimate associations between SUDs and suicide for men and women receiving Veterans Health Administration (VHA) care.

DESIGN

A cohort study using national administrative health records.

SETTING

National VHA system, USA.

PARTICIPANTS

All VHA users in fiscal year (FY) 2005 who were alive at the beginning of FY 2006 (n = 4 863 086).

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome of suicide mortality was assessed via FY 2006-2011 National Death Index (NDI) records. Current SUD diagnoses were the primary predictors of interest, and were assessed via FY 2004-2005 VHA National Patient Care Database (NPCD) records.

FINDINGS

In unadjusted analyses, a diagnosis of any current SUD and the specific current diagnoses of alcohol, cocaine, cannabis, opioid, amphetamine and sedative use disorders were all associated significantly with increased risk of suicide for both males and females [hazard ratios (HRs)] ranging from 1.35 for cocaine use disorder to 4.74 for sedative use disorder for men, and 3.89 for cannabis use disorder to 11.36 for sedative use disorder for women]. Further, the HR estimates for the relations between any SUD, alcohol, cocaine and opioid use disorders and suicide were significantly stronger for women than men (P < 0.05). After adjustment for other factors, most notably comorbid psychiatric diagnoses, associations linking SUDs with suicide were attenuated markedly and the greater suicide risk among females was observed for only any SUD and opioid use disorder (P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Current substance use disorders (SUDs) signal increased suicide risk, especially among women, and may be important markers to consider including in suicide risk assessment strategies. None the less, other co-occurring psychiatric disorders may partially explain associations between SUDs and suicide, as well as the observed excess suicide risk associated with SUDs among women.

Design and conduct of a provider survey to determine a clinically persuasive effect size in planning VA Cooperative Study #590 (Li+)

Background

The estimation of an effect size is an important step in designing an adequately powered, feasible clinical trial intended to change clinical practice. During the planning phase of VA Cooperative Study #590, “Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled Study of Lithium for Preventing Repeated Suicidal Self-Directed Violence in Patients with Depression or Bipolar Disorder (Li+),” it was not clear what effect size would be considered large enough to influence prescribing behavior among practicing clinicians.

Methods

We conducted an online survey of VA psychiatrists to assess their interest in the study question, their clinical experience with lithium, and their opinion about what suicide reduction rate would change their prescribing habits. The 9-item survey was hosted on SurveyMonkey^© and VA psychiatrists were individually emailed an invitation to complete an anonymous online survey. Three email waves were sent over three weeks.

Results

Overall, 862 of 2713 VA psychiatrists (response rate = 31.8%) responded to the anonymous survey. 74% of the respondents would refer a patient to the proposed trial, 9% would not, and 17% were unsure. Presented with suicide reduction rates in 10% increments ranging from 10 to 100%, 61% of respondents indicated that they would use lithium if suicide attempts were reduced by at least 40%; 83% would use lithium if it reduced attempts by at least 50%.

Conclusions

Even with the limitations of response bias and the reliability of responses on future prescribing behavior, a survey of potential users of a clinical trial's results offers a convenient, empirical method for determining and justifying clinically relevant effect sizes.

Does Suicidal Ideation as Measured by the PHQ-9 Predict Suicide Among VA Patients?

OBJECTIVE

Frequency of suicidal ideation in the past two weeks, assessed by item 9 of the nine-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), has been positively associated with suicide mortality among patients in a setting other than the Veterans Health Administration (VHA). To inform suicide prevention activities at the VHA, it is important to evaluate whether item 9 is associated with suicide risk among patients in the VHA system.

METHODS

PHQ-9 assessments (N=447,245) conducted by the VHA between October 1, 2009, and September 30, 2010, were collected. National Death Index data were used to ascertain suicide mortality from the date of PHQ-9 assessment through September 30, 2011. Multivariable proportional hazards regressions were used to evaluate associations between responses to item 9 and suicide mortality.

RESULTS

After the analyses adjusted for covariates, a response of "several days" for item 9 was associated with a 75% increased risk of suicide (hazard ratio [HR]=1.75, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.24-2.46), a response of "more than half the days" was associated with a 115% increased risk of suicide (HR=2.15, CI=1.32-3.51), and a response of "nearly every day" was associated with a 185% increased risk of suicide (HR=2.85, CI=1.81-4.47), compared with a response of "not at all." However, 71.6% of suicides during the study period occurred among patients who responded "not at all" to item 9 from their most recent PHQ-9.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher levels of suicidal ideation, indicated by item 9 of the PHQ-9, were associated with increased risk of suicide among patients in the VHA system.

Predictive Modeling and Concentration of the Risk of Suicide: Implications for Preventive Interventions in the US Department of Veterans Affairs

OBJECTIVES

The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) evaluated the use of predictive modeling to identify patients at risk for suicide and to supplement ongoing care with risk-stratified interventions.

METHODS

Suicide data came from the National Death Index. Predictors were measures from VHA clinical records incorporating patient-months from October 1, 2008, to September 30, 2011, for all suicide decedents and 1% of living patients, divided randomly into development and validation samples. We used data on all patients alive on September 30, 2010, to evaluate predictions of suicide risk over 1 year.

RESULTS

Modeling demonstrated that suicide rates were 82 and 60 times greater than the rate in the overall sample in the highest 0.01% stratum for calculated risk for the development and validation samples, respectively; 39 and 30 times greater in the highest 0.10%; 14 and 12 times greater in the highest 1.00%; and 6.3 and 5.7 times greater in the highest 5.00%.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive modeling can identify high-risk patients who were not identified on clinical grounds. VHA is developing modeling to enhance clinical care and to guide the delivery of preventive interventions.

Posttraumatic stress disorder and suicide in 5.9 million individuals receiving care in the veterans health administration health system

BACKGROUND

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) confers risk for suicidal ideation and suicide attempts but a link with suicide is not yet established. Prior analyses of users of the Veterans health administration (VHA) Health System suggest that other mental disorders strongly influence the association between PTSD and suicide in this population. We examined the association between PTSD and suicide in VHA users, with a focus on the influence of other mental disorders.

METHODS

Data were based on linkage of VA National Patient Care Database records and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention׳s National Death Index, with data from fiscal year 2007-2008. Analyses were based on multivariate logistic regression and structural equation models.

RESULTS

Among users of VHA services studied (N=5,913,648), 0.6% (N=3620) died by suicide, including 423 who had had been diagnosed with PTSD. In unadjusted analysis, PTSD was associated with increased risk for suicide, with odds ratio, OR (95% confidence interval, 95% CI)=1.34 (1.21, 1.48). Similar results were obtained after adjustment for demographic variables and veteran characteristics. After adjustment for multiple other mental disorder diagnoses, PTSD was associated with decreased risk for suicide, OR (95% CI)=0.77 (0.69, 0.86). Major depressive disorder (MDD) had the largest influence on the association between PTSD and suicide.

LIMITATIONS

The analyses were cross-sectional. VHA users were studied, with unclear relevance to other populations.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest the importance of identifying and treating comorbid MDD and other mental disorders in VHA users diagnosed with PTSD in suicide prevention efforts.

Tobacco use disorder and the risk of suicide mortality

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tobacco use may be a risk factor for suicide mortality; however, prior research has produced equivocal findings and has been limited by relatively small sample sizes to study the rare event of suicide, as well as a lack of adjustment for other important factors, including psychiatric illness. We estimate the predictive association between tobacco use disorder and the risk of suicide mortality, adjusting for other important variables.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING

The United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA).

PARTICIPANTS

All individuals who received VHA services in fiscal year (FY) 2005 and were alive at the start of FY 2006 (n = 4 863 086).

MEASUREMENTS

Tobacco use disorder was assessed via FYs 2004-05 VHA National Patient Care Database records. The outcome of suicide mortality was assessed during the follow-up interval from the beginning of FY 2006 to the end of FY 2008 using National Death Index records.

FINDINGS

Of the 4 863 086 individuals in the study, 4823 died by suicide during the follow-up interval. In the unadjusted model, tobacco use disorder was associated with an increased risk of suicide [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.88; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.76, 2.02]. After adjustment for model covariates, the association remained statistically significant, although attenuated (HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.27, 1.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Tobacco use disorder may confer a modest excess risk of death by suicide. Psychiatric disorders may partially explain the relationship between tobacco use disorder and suicide.

Associations between body mass index and suicide in the veterans affairs health system

OBJECTIVES

Associations between BMI and suicide risks and methods for individuals receiving care in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health system were evaluated.

DESIGN AND METHODS

For 4,005,640 patients in fiscal years 2001-2002, multivariable survival analyses assessed associations between BMI and suicide, through FY2009. Covariates included demographics, psychiatric, and nonpsychiatric diagnoses, receipt of VHA mental health encounters, and regional network. Among suicide decedents, multivariable Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) regression examined associations between BMI and suicide method.

RESULTS

1.3% of patients were underweight, 24.3% normal weight, 40.6% overweight, and 33.8% obese. Underweight was associated with increased suicide risk (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.36) compared to normal. Overweight and obese status were associated with lower risk (AHR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.82; AHR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.66, respectively). Among suicide decedents, high lethality methods were most common among underweight and least common among obese individuals. Adjusting for covariates, BMI was not associated with method lethality, yet some associations were observed between BMI and specific methods.

CONCLUSION

Among VHA patients, BMI was negatively associated with suicide risks. These differences may partly relate to choice of suicide method. Low BMI offers an additional resource for clinical suicide risk assessments.

Suicide mortality following nursing home discharge in the Department of Veterans Affairs health system

OBJECTIVES

We assessed suicide rates up to 6 months following discharge from US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) nursing homes.

METHODS

In VA Minimum Data Set (MDS) records, we identified 281 066 live discharges from the 137 VA nursing homes during fiscal years 2002 to 2008. We used MDS and administrative data to assess resident age, gender, behaviors, pain, and indications of psychoses, bipolar disorder, dementia, and depression. We identified vital status and suicide mortality within 6 months of discharge through National Death Index searches.

RESULTS

Suicide rates within 6 months of discharge were 88.0 per 100 000 person-years for men and 89.4 overall. Standardized mortality ratios relative to age- and gender-matched individuals in the VA patient population were 2.3 for men (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.9, 2.8) and 2.4 overall (95% CI = 2.0, 2.9). In multivariable proportional hazards regression analyses, resident characteristics, diagnoses, behaviors, and pain were not significantly associated with suicide risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Suicide risk was elevated following nursing home discharge. This underscores the importance of ongoing VA efforts to enhance discharge planning and timely postdischarge follow-up.

Noncancer pain conditions and risk of suicide

IMPORTANCE

There are limited data on the extent to which suicide mortality is associated with specific pain conditions.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the associations between clinical diagnoses of noncancer pain conditions and suicide among individuals receiving services in the Department of Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.

DESIGN

Retrospective data analysis.

SETTING

Data were extracted from National Death Index and treatment records from the Department of Veterans Healthcare System.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals receiving services in fiscal year 2005 who remained alive at the start of fiscal year 2006 (N = 4 863 086).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Analyses examined the association between baseline clinical diagnoses of pain-related conditions (arthritis, back pain, migraine, neuropathy, headache or tension headache, fibromyalgia, and psychogenic pain) and subsequent suicide death (assessed in fiscal years 2006-2008).

RESULTS

Controlling for demographic and contextual factors (age, sex, and Charlson score), elevated suicide risks were observed for each pain condition except arthritis and neuropathy (hazard ratios ranging from 1.33 [99% CI, 1.22-1.45] for back pain to 2.61 [1.82-3.74] for psychogenic pain). When analyses controlled for concomitant psychiatric conditions, the associations between pain conditions and suicide death were reduced; however, significant associations remained for back pain (hazard ratio, 1.13 [99% CI, 1.03-1.24]), migraine (1.34 [1.02-1.77]), and psychogenic pain (1.58 [1.11-2.26]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

There is a need for increased awareness of suicide risk in individuals with certain noncancer pain diagnoses, in particular back pain, migraine, and psychogenic pain.

Changes in suicide rates and in mental health staffing in the veterans health administration, 2005-2009

OBJECTIVE

Between 2005 and 2009, the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) enhanced its mental health programs and increased outpatient mental health staffing by 52.8%. However, suicide rates among VHA patients remained the same. This study evaluated this finding by examining variability in staffing increases between VHA's 21 regional networks (Veterans Integrated Service Networks) (VISNs) and associations with suicide rates.

METHODS

Suicide rates among VHA patients were derived from the National Death Index and VHA clinical and administrative records for 2005 and 2009. Comparisons across VISNs used measures of proportional change in mental health staffing (overall and in inpatient, residential, intensive case management, and outpatient programs) and comparable measures of mental health staffing per 1,000 mental health patients.

RESULTS

Significant correlations were found between proportional changes from 2005 to 2009 in suicide rates and outpatient mental health staffing (r=-.453, p=.039) and outpatient mental health staffing per 1,000 patients (r=-.533, p=.013). The ten VISNs above the median in proportional changes in mental health staffing had average decreases in suicide rates of 12.6% while those below had increases of 11.6% (p=.005). For proportional changes in mental health staffing per 1,000 patients, those above the median had decreases of 11.2% and those below had increases of 13.8% (p=.014). For the average VISN, it would have required a 27.5%-36.8% increase in outpatient staff over 2005 levels to decrease suicide rates by 10%.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental health enhancements in VHA were associated with decreases in suicide rates in VISNs where the increases in mental health outpatient staffing were greatest.

Implementation and early utilization of a Suicide Hotline for veterans

Suicide crisis lines have a respected history as a strategy for reducing deaths from suicide and suicidal behaviors. Until recently, however, evidence of the effectiveness of these crisis lines has been sparse. Studies published during the past decade suggest that crisis lines offer an alternative to populations who may not be willing to engage in treatment through traditional mental health settings. Given this promising evidence, in 2007, the Department of Veterans Affairs in collaboration with the Department of Health and Human Services' Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration implemented a National Suicide Hotline that is staffed 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, by Veterans Affairs clinical staff. We report here on the implementation of this suicide hotline and our early observations of its utilization in a largely male population.

Suicide among veterans in 16 states, 2005 to 2008: comparisons between utilizers and nonutilizers of Veterans Health Administration (VHA) services based on data from the National Death Index, the National Violent Death Reporting System, and VHA administrative records

OBJECTIVES

We sought to compare suicide rates among veterans utilizing Veterans Health Administration (VHA) services versus those who did not.

METHODS

Suicide rates from 2005 to 2008 were estimated for veterans in the 16 states that fully participated in the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), using data from the National Death Index, NVDRS, and VHA records.

RESULTS

Between 2005 and 2008, veteran suicide rates differed by age and VHA utilization status. Among men aged 30 years and older, suicide rates were consistently higher among VHA utilizers. However, among men younger than 30 years, rates declined significantly among VHA utilizers while increasing among nonutilizers. Over these years, an increasing proportion of male veterans younger than 30 years received VHA services, and these individuals had a rising prevalence of diagnosed mental health conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

The higher rates of suicide for utilizers of VHA among veteran men aged 30 and older were consistent with previous reports about which veterans utilize VHA services. The increasing rates of mental health conditions in utilizers younger than 30 years suggested that the decreasing relative rates in this group were related to the care provided, rather than to selective enrollment of those at lower risk for suicide.

Prevalence and characteristics of suicide ideation and attempts among active military and veteran participants in a national health survey

The relationships between military service and suicide are not clear, and comparatively little is known about the characteristics and correlates of suicide ideation and attempts among those with history of military service. We used data from a national health survey to estimate the prevalence and correlates of suicidal behaviors among veterans and service members in 2 states. The prevalence of suicidal behaviors among Veterans was similar to previous estimates of ideation and attempts among adults in the US general population.

Reducing suicidal ideation and depression in older primary care patients: 24-month outcomes of the PROSPECT study

OBJECTIVE

The Prevention of Suicide in Primary Care Elderly: Collaborative Trial (PROSPECT) evaluated the impact of a care management intervention on suicidal ideation and depression in older primary care patients. This is the first report of outcomes over a 2-year period.

METHOD

Study participants were patients 60 years of age or older (N=599) with major or minor depression selected after screening 9,072 randomly identified patients of 20 primary care practices randomly assigned to provide either the PROSPECT intervention or usual care. The intervention consisted of services of 15 trained care managers, who offered algorithm-based recommendations to physicians and helped patients with treatment adherence over 24 months.

RESULTS

Compared with patients receiving usual care, those receiving the intervention had a higher likelihood of receiving antidepressants and/or psychotherapy (84.9%-89% versus 49%-62%) and had a 2.2 times greater decline in suicidal ideation over 24 months. Treatment response occurred earlier on average in the intervention group and increased from months 18 to 24, while no appreciable increase in treatment response occurred in the usual care group during the same period. Among patients with major depression, a greater number achieved remission in the intervention group than in the usual-care group at 4 months (26.6% versus 15.2%), 8 months (36% versus 22.5%), and 24 months (45.4% versus 31.5%). Patients with minor depression had favorable outcomes regardless of treatment assignment.

CONCLUSIONS

Sustained collaborative care maintains high utilization of depression treatment, reduces suicidal ideation, and improves the outcomes of major depression over 2 years.

Stigma and the acceptability of depression treatments among african americans and whites

BACKGROUND

Stigma is associated with depression treatment, however, whether stigma differs between depression treatment modalities is not known, nor have racial differences in depression treatment stigma been fully explored.

OBJECTIVE

To measure stigma for four depression treatments and estimate its association with treatment acceptability for African Americans and whites.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional, anonymous mailed survey.

PARTICIPANTS

Four hundred and ninety African-American and white primary care patients.

MEASUREMENTS

The acceptability of four depression treatments (prescription medication, mental health counseling, herbal remedy, and spiritual counseling) was assessed using a vignette. Treatment-specific stigma was evaluated by asking whether participants would: (1) feel ashamed; (2) feel comfortable telling friends and family; (3) feel okay if people in their community knew; and (4) not want people at work to know about each depression treatment. Sociodemographics, depression history, and current depressive symptoms were measured.

RESULTS

Treatment-specific stigma was lower for herbal remedy than prescription medication or mental health counseling (p < .01). Whites had higher stigma than African Americans for all treatment modalities. In adjusted analyses, stigma relating to self [AOR 0.43 (0.20-0.95)] and friends and family [AOR 0.42 (0.21-0.88)] was associated with lower acceptability of mental health counseling. Stigma did not account for the lower acceptability of prescription medication among African Americans.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment associated stigma significantly affects the acceptability of mental health counseling but not prescription medication. Efforts to improve depression treatment utilization might benefit from addressing concerns about stigma of mental health counseling.