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Koolhof IS, Firestone SM, Bettiol S, Charleston M, Gibney KB, Neville PJ, Jardine A, Carver S. Optimising predictive modelling of Ross River virus using meteorological variables. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009252. [PMID: 33690616 PMCID: PMC7978384 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009252] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Revised: 03/19/2021] [Accepted: 02/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Statistical models are regularly used in the forecasting and surveillance of infectious diseases to guide public health. Variable selection assists in determining factors associated with disease transmission, however, often overlooked in this process is the evaluation and suitability of the statistical model used in forecasting disease transmission and outbreaks. Here we aim to evaluate several modelling methods to optimise predictive modelling of Ross River virus (RRV) disease notifications and outbreaks in epidemiological important regions of Victoria and Western Australia. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We developed several statistical methods using meteorological and RRV surveillance data from July 2000 until June 2018 in Victoria and from July 1991 until June 2018 in Western Australia. Models were developed for 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Victoria and seven LGAs in Western Australia. We found generalised additive models and generalised boosted regression models, and generalised additive models and negative binomial models to be the best fit models when predicting RRV outbreaks and notifications, respectively. No association was found with a model's ability to predict RRV notifications in LGAs with greater RRV activity, or for outbreak predictions to have a higher accuracy in LGAs with greater RRV notifications. Moreover, we assessed the use of factor analysis to generate independent variables used in predictive modelling. In the majority of LGAs, this method did not result in better model predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We demonstrate that models which are developed and used for predicting disease notifications may not be suitable for predicting disease outbreaks, or vice versa. Furthermore, poor predictive performance in modelling disease transmissions may be the result of inappropriate model selection methods. Our findings provide approaches and methods to facilitate the selection of the best fit statistical model for predicting mosquito-borne disease notifications and outbreaks used for disease surveillance.
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Muhi S, Tayler N, Hoang T, Ballard SA, Graham M, Rojek A, Kwong JC, Trubiano JA, Smibert O, Drewett G, James F, Gardiner E, Chea S, Isles N, Sait M, Pasricha S, Taiaroa G, McAuley J, Williams E, Gibney KB, Stinear TP, Bond K, Lewin SR, Putland M, Howden BP, Williamson DA. Multi-site assessment of rapid, point-of-care antigen testing for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a low-prevalence setting: A validation and implementation study. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-WESTERN PACIFIC 2021; 9:100115. [PMID: 33937887 PMCID: PMC8076656 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100115] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2020] [Revised: 01/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/08/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Background In Australia, COVID-19 diagnosis relies on RT-PCR testing which is relatively costly and time-consuming. To date, few studies have assessed the performance and implementation of rapid antigen-based SARS-CoV-2 testing in a setting with a low prevalence of COVID-19 infections, such as Australia. Methods This study recruited participants presenting for COVID-19 testing at three Melbourne metropolitan hospitals during a period of low COVID-19 prevalence. The Abbott PanBioTM COVID-19 Ag point-of-care test was performed alongside RT-PCR. In addition, participants with COVID-19 notified to the Victorian Government were invited to provide additional swabs to aid validation. Implementation challenges were also documented. Findings The specificity of the Abbott PanBioTM COVID-19 Ag test was 99.96% (95% CI 99.73 - 100%). Sensitivity amongst participants with RT-PCR-confirmed infection was dependent upon the duration of symptoms reported, ranging from 77.3% (duration 1 to 33 days) to 100% in those within seven days of symptom onset. A range of implementation challenges were identified which may inform future COVID-19 testing strategies in a low prevalence setting. Interpretation Given the high specificity, antigen-based tests may be most useful in rapidly triaging public health and hospital resources while expediting confirmatory RT-PCR testing. Considering the limitations in test sensitivity and the potential for rapid transmission in susceptible populations, particularly in hospital settings, careful consideration is required for implementation of antigen testing in a low prevalence setting. Funding This work was funded by the Victorian Department of Health and Human Services. The funder was not involved in data analysis or manuscript preparation.
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Gibney KB, Attwood LO, Nicholson S, Tran T, Druce J, Healy J, Strachan J, Franklin L, Hall R, Cross GB. Emergence of Attenuated Measles Illness Among IgG-positive/IgM-negative Measles Cases: Victoria, Australia, 2008-2017. Clin Infect Dis 2021; 70:1060-1067. [PMID: 31056637 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz363] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2019] [Accepted: 04/30/2019] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Waning measles immunity among vaccinated individuals may result in an attenuated illness. This study compares the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory profile of measles cases with waning immunity with other measles cases. METHODS Polymerase chain reaction-positive (+) measles cases notified to Victoria's Department of Health and Human Services from 2008 to 2017 with immunoglobulin (Ig) M and IgG tested at diagnosis were classified according to serology at diagnosis: IgG negative (-) (nonimmune), IgM+/IgG+ (indeterminate), or IgM-/IgG+ (waning immunity). RESULTS Between 2008 and 2017, 297 measles cases were notified, of whom 190 (64%) were included; 151 of 190 (79%) were nonimmune at diagnosis, 26 (14%) were indeterminate, and 13 (7%) had waning immunity. Between 2008-2013 and 2014-2017, the proportion of cases with waning immunity increased from 0 of 87 (0%) to 13 of 103 (13%) (P < .001) and the diagnostic sensitivity of initial IgM fell from 93% to 81% (P = .012), respectively. Seven (54%) waning immunity cases reported receiving measles-containing vaccines; 1 case had 2 documented doses. Compared with nonimmune and indeterminate cases, waning immunity cases were more likely to be male; less likely to report fever, coryza, and cough; and had lower burden of virus (higher cycle threshold values). Waning immunity cases had higher IgG titers than indeterminate cases (mean optical density values, 1.96 vs 0.71; P = .004). Onward transmission from 1 waning immunity case was documented. CONCLUSIONS Waning immunity among measles cases, associated with secondary vaccine failure and modified clinical illness, is emerging in Victoria with transmission potential.
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Betts JM, Tay EL, Johnson PDR, Lavender CJ, Gibney KB, O'Brien DP, Globan M, Tzimourtas N, O'Hara MA, Crouch SR. Buruli ulcer: a new case definition for Victoria. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2020; 44. [PMID: 33349204 DOI: 10.33321/cdi.2020.44.93] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Abstract Laboratory-confirmed infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans is currently notifiable to health departments in several jurisdictions. Accurate surveillance is imperative to understanding current and emerging areas of endemicity and to facilitate research into a neglected tropical disease with poorly-understood transmission dynamics. The state of Victoria currently reports some of the highest numbers of M. ulcerans cases in the world each year, with 340 cases notified in 2018 (an incidence of 5.5 per 100,000 population). In May 2019, a group of clinical, laboratory and public health experts met to discuss a new case definition for the surveillance of M. ulcerans disease in Victoria, incorporating clinical and epidemiological elements. The new case definition supports important public health messaging and actions for residents and visitors to popular tourist areas in Victoria.
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Koolhof IS, Gibney KB, Bettiol S, Charleston M, Wiethoelter A, Arnold AL, Campbell PT, Neville PJ, Aung P, Shiga T, Carver S, Firestone SM. The forecasting of dynamical Ross River virus outbreaks: Victoria, Australia. Epidemics 2019; 30:100377. [PMID: 31735585 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100377] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/01/2019] [Revised: 11/04/2019] [Accepted: 11/04/2019] [Indexed: 10/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most epidemiologically important mosquito-borne disease. During RRV epidemics in the State of Victoria (such as 2010/11 and 2016/17) notifications can account for up to 30% of national RRV notifications. However, little is known about factors which can forecast RRV transmission in Victoria. We aimed to understand factors associated with RRV transmission in epidemiologically important regions of Victoria and establish an early warning forecast system. We developed negative binomial regression models to forecast human RRV notifications across 11 Local Government Areas (LGAs) using climatic, environmental, and oceanographic variables. Data were collected from July 2008 to June 2018. Data from July 2008 to June 2012 were used as a training data set, while July 2012 to June 2018 were used as a testing data set. Evapotranspiration and precipitation were found to be common factors for forecasting RRV notifications across sites. Several site-specific factors were also important in forecasting RRV notifications which varied between LGA. From the 11 LGAs examined, nine experienced an outbreak in 2011/12 of which the models for these sites were a good fit. All 11 LGAs experienced an outbreak in 2016/17, however only six LGAs could predict the outbreak using the same model. We document similarities and differences in factors useful for forecasting RRV notifications across Victoria and demonstrate that readily available and inexpensive climate and environmental data can be used to predict epidemic periods in some areas. Furthermore, we highlight in certain regions the complexity of RRV transmission where additional epidemiological information is needed to accurately predict RRV activity. Our findings have been applied to produce a Ross River virus Outbreak Surveillance System (ROSS) to aid in public health decision making in Victoria.
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Nelson CK, Franklin LJ, Gibney KB. Infectious Disease Notification Practices in Victoria, 2016-17. ACTA ACUST UNITED AC 2019; 43. [PMID: 31426732 DOI: 10.33321/cdi.2019.43.34] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
Abstract
Introduction Infectious disease surveillance in Victoria, Australia is based upon a legislated requirement for doctors and laboratories to notify suspected or diagnosed cases of specific conditions to the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The department undertakes regular audits of notification practices in Victoria typically every two years. The objective of this particular audit was to describe notification practices in 2016 and 2017, assess the effect of enhanced surveillance programs (ESPs) on Indigenous status data completeness and provide a baseline assessment that can be used to monitor the impact of a recent legislative change to notification requirements for several of the notifiable diseases which came into effect on 1 September 2018. Methods Notified cases reported to DHHS between 1 January 2016 and 31 December 2017 which met the confirmed and probable national case definitions were analysed by year, notifier type (doctor-only, laboratory-only, or both) and condition category (urgent versus routine). For three notifiable conditions (gonococcal infection and hepatitis B and hepatitis C of unspecified duration) Indigenous status completeness was compared pre- and post ESP commencement. Results The number of notified cases in Victoria increased 50% from 76,904 in 2016 to 115,318 in 2017 with a 277% increase in notified influenza alone. Almost half of cases were notified by both laboratory and doctor. Indigenous status was more likely to be complete following the introduction of ESPs (relative risk, RR 1.36 (95%CI: 1.33 - 1.40) p>0 .001). Discussion DHHS Victoria experienced a 1.5-fold increase in notified cases in 2017 compared with 2016, which was almost entirely attributable to influenza. For three notifiable conditions which had ESPs introduced during this period, Indigenous status reporting significantly improved. Indigenous identifiers on pathology request forms and data linkage are both interventions which are being considered to improve Indigenous status reporting in Victoria.
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Gibney KB, Cheng AC. Reducing the melioidosis burden: public health, chronic disease prevention, or improved case management? THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2019; 19:800-802. [PMID: 31285142 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(19)30303-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
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Gibney KB, Leder K. Socioeconomic disparities and infection: it's complicated. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2018; 19:116-117. [PMID: 30558993 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(18)30511-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2018] [Accepted: 08/07/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2023]
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Roth GA, Abate D, Abate KH, Abay SM, Abbafati C, Abbasi N, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdela J, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe HT, Abebe M, Abebe Z, Abejie AN, Abera SF, Abil OZ, Abraha HN, Abrham AR, Abu-Raddad LJ, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Adib MG, Admasie A, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Ahmed S, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aichour MTE, Akbari ME, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Al-Eyadhy A, Al-Raddadi RM, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alam T, Alebel A, Alene KA, Alijanzadeh M, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Alonso J, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Aminde LN, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Animut MD, Anjomshoa M, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Arora A, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asfaw ET, Ataro Z, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Ayele Y, Ayer R, Azzopardi PS, Babazadeh A, Bacha U, Badali H, Badawi A, Bali AG, Ballesteros KE, Banach M, Banerjee K, Bannick MS, Banoub JAM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barquera S, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Baynes HW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Belachew AB, Belay E, Belay YA, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bertolacci GJ, Beuran M, Beyranvand T, Bhalla A, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgo B, Biehl MH, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Bililign N, Bin Sayeed MS, Bisanzio D, Biswas T, Blacker BF, Basara BB, Borschmann R, Bosetti C, Bozorgmehr K, Brady OJ, Brant LC, Brayne C, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Briant PS, Britton G, Brugha T, Busse R, Butt ZA, Callender CSKH, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cano J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castillo Rivas J, Castle CD, Castro C, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chaiah Y, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chaturvedi P, Chiang PPC, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer A, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Chung SC, Cicuttini FM, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Cooper LT, Cortesi PA, Cortinovis M, Cousin E, Cowie BC, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crowe CS, Crump JA, Cunningham M, Daba AK, Dadi AF, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Dargan PI, Daryani A, Das SK, Gupta RD, Neves JD, Dasa TT, Dash AP, Davis AC, Davis Weaver N, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De La Hoz FP, De Neve JW, Degefa MG, Degenhardt L, Degfie TT, Deiparine S, Demoz GT, Demtsu BB, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Dervenis N, Des Jarlais DC, Dessie GA, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Dinberu MT, Ding EL, Dirac MA, Djalalinia S, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, Dorsey ER, Doshi PP, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duken EE, Duncan BB, Duraes AR, Ebrahimi H, Ebrahimpour S, Edessa D, Edvardsson D, Eggen AE, El Bcheraoui C, El Sayed Zaki M, El-Khatib Z, Elkout H, Ellingsen CL, Endres M, Endries AY, Er B, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeili R, Esteghamati A, Fakhar M, Fakhim H, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Farhadi F, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Farzaei MH, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fentahun N, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes E, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Finegold S, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Foigt NA, Foreman KJ, Fornari C, Frank TD, Fukumoto T, Fuller JE, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gallus S, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Garcia-Gordillo MA, Gardner WM, Gebre AK, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael B, Gebremichael TG, Gelano TF, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Geramo YCD, Gething PW, Gezae KE, Ghadami MR, Ghadimi R, Ghasemi Falavarjani K, Ghasemi-Kasman M, Ghimire M, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gillum RF, Ginawi IA, Giroud M, Giussani G, Goenka S, Goldberg EM, Goli S, Gómez-Dantés H, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Gorman TM, Goto A, Goulart AC, Gnedovskaya EV, Grada A, Grosso G, Gugnani HC, Guimaraes ALS, Guo Y, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gutiérrez RA, Gyawali B, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hagos TB, Hailegiyorgis TT, Hailu GB, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hasan M, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He Y, Hedayatizadeh-Omran A, Hegazy MI, Heibati B, Heidari M, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Herteliu C, Heydarpour F, Heydarpour P, Heydarpour S, Hibstu DT, Hoek HW, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hoogar P, Hosgood HD, Hosseini SM, Hosseinzadeh M, Hostiuc M, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsiao T, Hu G, Huang JJ, Husseini A, Hussen MM, Hutfless S, Idrisov B, Ilesanmi OS, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Irvine CMS, Islam N, Islam SMS, Islami F, Jacobsen KH, Jahangiry L, Jahanmehr N, Jain SK, Jakovljevic M, Jalu MT, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jenkins KJ, Jha RP, Jha V, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Joshi A, Jozwiak JJ, Jungari SB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalani R, Karami M, Karami Matin B, Karch A, Karema C, Karimi-Sari H, Kasaeian A, Kassa DH, Kassa GM, Kassa TD, Kassebaum NJ, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kazemi Z, Karyani AK, Kazi DS, Kefale AT, Keiyoro PN, Kemp GR, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaei B, Khafaie MA, Khajavi A, Khalid N, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan MS, Khan MA, Khang YH, Khater MM, Khoja AT, Khosravi A, Khosravi MH, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kibret GD, Kidanemariam ZT, Kiirithio DN, Kim D, Kim YE, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek K, Kivimäki M, Knudsen AKS, Kocarnik JM, Kochhar S, Kokubo Y, Kolola T, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko MA, Krishan K, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar GA, Kumar M, Kumar P, Kutz MJ, Kuzin I, Kyu HH, Lad DP, Lad SD, Lafranconi A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam JO, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Lansky S, Larson HJ, Latifi A, Lau KMM, Lazarus JV, Lebedev G, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leili M, Leshargie CT, Li S, Li Y, Liang J, Lim LL, Lim SS, Limenih MA, Linn S, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Lonsdale C, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Ma S, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Maddison ER, Madotto F, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maghavani DP, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Manda AL, Mandarano-Filho LG, Manguerra H, Mansournia MA, Mapoma CC, Marami D, Maravilla JC, Marcenes W, Marczak L, Marks A, Marks GB, Martinez G, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Marzan MB, Masci JR, Massenburg BB, Mathur MR, Mathur P, Matzopoulos R, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehrotra R, Mehta KM, Mehta V, Mekonnen TC, Melese A, Melku M, Memiah PTN, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistu DT, Mengistu G, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Mezgebe HB, Miazgowski B, Miazgowski T, Millear AI, Miller TR, Miller-Petrie MK, Mini GK, Mirabi P, Mirarefin M, Mirica A, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw AT, Mitiku H, Moazen B, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadifard N, Mohammed MA, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mokdad AH, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Moradi G, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moradinazar M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Moreno Velásquez I, Morgado-Da-Costa J, Morrison SD, Moschos MM, Mouodi S, Mousavi SM, Muchie KF, Mueller UO, Mukhopadhyay S, Muller K, Mumford JE, Musa J, Musa KI, Mustafa G, Muthupandian S, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Nahvijou A, Naik G, Nair S, Najafi F, Naldi L, Nam HS, Nangia V, Nansseu JR, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Neamati N, Negoi I, Negoi RI, Neupane S, Newton CRJ, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen AQ, Nguyen G, Nguyen HT, Nguyen HT, Nguyen LH, Nguyen M, Nguyen TH, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nirayo YL, Nixon MR, Nolutshungu N, Nomura S, Norheim OF, Noroozi M, Norrving B, Noubiap JJ, Nouri HR, Nourollahpour Shiadeh M, Nowroozi MR, Nyasulu PS, Odell CM, Ofori-Asenso R, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong KL, Ong SKS, Oren E, Orpana HM, Ortiz A, Ortiz JR, Otstavnov SS, Øverland S, Owolabi MO, Özdemir R, P A M, Pacella R, Pakhale S, Pakhare AP, Pakpour AH, Pana A, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Parisi A, Park EK, Parry CDH, Parsian H, Patel S, Pati S, Patton GC, Paturi VR, Paulson KR, Pereira A, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pirsaheb M, Pishgar F, Polinder S, Postma MJ, Pourshams A, Poustchi H, Pujar A, Prakash S, Prasad N, Purcell CA, Qorbani M, Quintana H, Quistberg DA, Rade KW, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rafiei A, Rahim F, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Ranjan P, Rao PC, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Razo-García C, Reddy KS, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezaeian S, Rezai MS, Riahi SM, Ribeiro ALP, Rios-Blancas MJ, Roba KT, Roberts NLS, Robinson SR, Roever L, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rostami A, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sachdev PS, Saddik B, Sadeghi E, Safari H, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salam N, Salama JS, Salamati P, Saldanha RDF, Saleem Z, Salimi Y, Salvi SS, Salz I, Sambala EZ, Samy AM, Sanabria J, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santomauro DF, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sao Jose BP, Sarker AR, Sarmiento-Suárez R, Sarrafzadegan N, Sartorius B, Sarvi S, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawant AR, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Sayyah M, Schaeffner E, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Scott JG, Sekerija M, Sepanlou SG, Serván-Mori E, Seyedmousavi S, Shabaninejad H, Shackelford KA, Shafieesabet A, Shahbazi M, Shaheen AA, Shaikh MA, Shams-Beyranvand M, Shamsi M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharafi K, Sharif M, Sharif-Alhoseini M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikh A, Shi P, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shiue I, Shokraneh F, Shrime MG, Si S, Siabani S, Siddiqi TJ, Sigfusdottir ID, Sigurvinsdottir R, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silva NTD, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinha DN, Sliwa K, Smith M, Sobaih BH, Sobhani S, Sobngwi E, Soneji SS, Soofi M, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Soyiri IN, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Starodubov VI, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stewart LG, Stokes MA, Subart ML, Sudaryanto A, Sufiyan MB, Sur PJ, Sutradhar I, Sykes BL, Sylaja PN, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabuchi T, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Tandon N, Tassew SG, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekalign TG, Tekle MG, Temsah MH, Temsah O, Terkawi AS, Teshale MY, Tessema B, Tessema GA, Thankappan KR, Thirunavukkarasu S, Thomas N, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tilahun B, To QG, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre AE, Tortajada-Girbés M, Touvier M, Tovani-Palone MR, Tran BX, Tran KB, Tripathi S, Troeger CE, Truelsen TC, Truong NT, Tsadik AG, Tsoi D, Tudor Car L, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Ullah I, Undurraga EA, Updike RL, Usman MS, Uthman OA, Uzun SB, Vaduganathan M, Vaezi A, Vaidya G, Valdez PR, Varavikova E, Vasankari TJ, Venketasubramanian N, Villafaina S, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov V, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner GR, Wagnew FS, Waheed Y, Wallin MT, Walson JL, Wang Y, Wang YP, Wassie MM, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weldegebreal F, Weldegwergs KG, Werdecker A, Werkneh AA, West TE, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Widecka J, Wilner LB, Wilson S, Winkler AS, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Wu S, Wu YC, Wyper GMA, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yadollahpour A, Yahyazadeh Jabbari SH, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yasin YJ, Yentür GK, Yeshaneh A, Yimer EM, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yisma E, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Yousefifard M, Yu C, Zadnik V, Zaidi Z, Zaman SB, Zamani M, Zare Z, Zeleke AJ, Zenebe ZM, Zhang AL, Zhang K, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Naghavi M, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392:1736-1788. [PMID: 30496103 PMCID: PMC6227606 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736%2818%2932203-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2018] [Revised: 08/29/2018] [Accepted: 08/30/2018] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. FINDINGS At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. INTERPRETATION Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vos T, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abebo TA, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Ackerman IN, Adamu AA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal SK, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Maskari F, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Andersen HH, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokphako EFGA, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battista B, Battle KE, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bicer BK, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Car M, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Carvalho F, Casey DC, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castle CD, Catalá-López F, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chen H, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Colombara D, Cooper C, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dadi AF, Dalal K, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Leo DD, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Dicker D, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dorsey ER, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, El-Khatib ZZ, Ellerstrand J, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Flor LS, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold AL, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Goulart AC, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hailu AD, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Harvey J, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hay RJ, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JM, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman HJ, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ikeda C, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jassal SK, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, John D, Johnson SC, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Kan H, Karam NE, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassa GM, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kengne AP, Keren A, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kim P, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kumar S, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert N, Lan Q, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Lee PH, Lee JT, Leigh J, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Li Kappe D, Liang X, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu A, Liu S, Liu Y, Lodha R, Logroscino G, London SJ, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Low N, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Manhertz T, Mantilla A, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, März W, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McNellan C, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mekonnen TC, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Mori R, Morozoff C, Morrison SD, Moses M, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Naldi L, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negasa DE, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Newton CR, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen TH, Nguyen QL, Nguyen CT, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nong VM, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, O'Donnell MJ, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju TO, Olagunju AT, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Quansah R, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rankin Z, Rao PC, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Saleem HOB, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shinohara Y, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shrime MG, Sibai AM, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh NP, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Sorensen RJD, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein MB, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stovner LJ, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Taffere GR, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Taylor HR, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Terkawi AS, Tesfaye DJ, Tesssema B, Thamsuwan O, Thomas KE, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Tripathi S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venkatesh S, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weaver M, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Woolf AD, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zenebe ZM, Zhang X, Zhou M, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1211-1259. [PMID: 28919117 PMCID: PMC5605509 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32154-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4400] [Impact Index Per Article: 628.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Revised: 07/22/2017] [Accepted: 07/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. METHODS We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). INTERPRETATION The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Wang H, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abraha HN, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adedoyin RA, Adetifa IMO, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Aggarwal R, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akanda AS, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al Lami FH, Alabed S, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Aldridge RW, Alene KA, Al-Eyadhy A, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Aljunid SM, Alkaabi JM, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allam SD, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Ameh EA, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Anber N, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Asghar RJ, Assadi R, Assaye AM, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Babalola TK, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Balalla S, Barac A, Barber RM, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Baune BT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bekele BB, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Benson J, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bjerregaard P, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bukhman G, Bulto LNB, Bumgarner BR, Burch M, Butt ZA, Cahill LE, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Car M, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro FF, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Chen H, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colquhoun SM, Coresh J, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, De Leo D, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Dixit P, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Donnelly CA, dos Santos KPB, Douwes-Schultz D, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Dwivedi LK, Ebrahimi H, El Bcheraoui C, Ellingsen CL, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshetie S, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fanuel FBB, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Fraser M, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Futran ND, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebregergs GB, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebrekidan KG, Gebremichael MW, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Gemechu BL, Gemechu KS, Genova-Maleras R, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Girma BW, Giussani G, Goenka S, Gomez B, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Haagsma JA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hakuzimana A, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, He F, Heredia-Pi IB, Herteliu C, Hilawe EH, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Iburg KM, Igumbor EU, Ileanu BV, Inoue M, Irenso AA, Irvine CMS, Islam SMS, Islam N, Jacobsen KH, Jaenisch T, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jin Y, John D, John O, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Kassaw NA, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Ketema EB, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja ATA, Khosravi MH, Kibret GD, Kieling C, Kim YJ, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim P, Kim S, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kishawi S, Kissoon N, Kivimaki M, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kuipers EJ, Kulikoff XR, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumar P, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Lachat C, Lagat AK, Lager ACJ, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lambert N, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Lavados PM, Laxmaiah A, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liao Y, Liben ML, Lim SS, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu S, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Lorch SA, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Macarayan ER, Machado IE, Mackay MT, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Magis-Rodriguez C, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marczak LB, Marks GB, Martin EA, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Massano J, Maulik PK, Mayosi BM, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Mehta KM, Meier T, Mekonnen TC, Meles KG, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mengistu DT, Menon GR, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Mikesell J, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moore AR, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Morrison SD, Mruts KB, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Nanda L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Natarajan G, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nisar MI, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Nyakarahuka L, O'Donnell MJ, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osgood-Zimmerman A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, Oyekale AS, PA M, Pacella RE, Pakhale S, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pervaiz A, Pesudovs K, Peterson CB, Petri WA, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pigott DM, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Postma MJ, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quintanilla BPA, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao PV, Rawaf S, Ray SE, Rego MAS, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Rivas JC, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Ruhago GM, Saadat S, Sabde YD, Sachdev PS, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sahebkar A, Sahraian MA, Salama J, Salamati P, Salomon JA, Salvi SS, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schulhofer-Wohl S, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Seid AM, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shifa GT, Shigematsu M, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silpakit N, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh JA, Singh PK, Singh A, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skarbek KAK, Skiadaresi E, Sligar A, Smith DL, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Stöckl H, Stokes MA, Strong M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tadese F, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Temsah MH, Terkawi AS, Tesema CL, Tesssema B, Theis A, Thomas N, Thompson AH, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tsilimparis N, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Uzochukwu BSC, van Boven JFM, Varakin YY, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Velasquez IM, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vishnu A, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Waid JL, Wakayo T, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Workicho A, Workie SB, Xavier D, Xu G, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zenebe ZM, Zerfu TA, Zhang AL, Zhang X, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1084-1150. [PMID: 28919115 PMCID: PMC5605514 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 488] [Impact Index Per Article: 69.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2017] [Revised: 05/21/2017] [Accepted: 06/07/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. INTERPRETATION Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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Gakidou E, Afshin A, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Abyu GY, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afarideh M, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam T, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Ali K, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amoako YA, Ansari H, Antó JM, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arian N, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Atey TM, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Ballew SH, Barac A, Barber RM, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barquera S, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Batis C, Battle KE, Baumgarner BR, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhansali A, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bikbov B, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Charlson FJ, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Comfort H, Cooper C, Coresh J, Cornaby L, Cortesi PA, Criqui MH, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, de Courten B, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deshpande A, Dharmaratne SD, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Duncan S, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fay K, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Ganji M, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gesesew HA, Gething PW, Ghajar A, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Goulart AC, Graetz N, Gugnani HC, Guo J, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hachinski V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hanson SW, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, Hedayati MT, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hernandez JCM, Hoek HW, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Hu G, Huang JJ, Huang H, Ibrahim NM, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jackson MD, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Johansson LRK, Johnson CO, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kromhout H, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lee PH, Lee A, Leigh J, Leung J, Levi M, Levy TS, Li Y, Li Y, Liang X, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu P, Lodha R, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Macarayan ERK, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Mapoma CC, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Mathur MR, Matsushita K, Matzopoulos R, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Mullany EC, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pacella RE, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Pandian JD, Papachristou C, Park EK, Parry CD, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pillay JD, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Plass D, Pletcher MA, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad N, Purcell C, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rawaf S, Rehm CD, Rehm J, Reiner RC, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Reynales-Shigematsu LM, Rezaei S, Ribeiro AL, Rivera JA, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Roman Y, Room R, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Rubagotti E, Rushton L, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sahathevan R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sánchez-Pimienta TG, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shen J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Smith DL, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Subart M, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanner M, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Terkawi AS, Tesssema B, Thakur JS, Thamsuwan O, Thankappan KR, Theis AM, Thomas ML, Thomson AJ, Thrift AG, Tillmann T, Tobe-Gai R, Tobollik M, Tollanes MC, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Touvier M, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Veerman LJ, Venkateswaran V, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Workicho A, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zimsen SRM, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1345-1422. [PMID: 28919119 PMCID: PMC5614451 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32366-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1564] [Impact Index Per Article: 223.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/21/2017] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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Fullman N, Barber RM, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulkader RS, Abdulle AM, Abera SF, Aboyans V, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Adedeji IA, Adetokunboh O, Afshin A, Agrawal A, Agrawal S, Ahmad Kiadaliri A, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Aichour AN, Aichour I, Aiyar S, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alasfoor D, Alene KA, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Ansari H, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Arora M, Artaman A, Aryal KK, Asayesh H, Asgedom SW, Assadi R, Atey TM, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Bannick MS, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barrero LH, Basu S, Battle KE, Baune BT, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bennett JR, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Berhe DF, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beuran M, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Bhutta ZA, Bicer BK, Bidgoli HH, Bikbov B, Bilal AI, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bizuayehu HM, Blosser CD, Boneya DJ, Bose D, Bou-Orm IR, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Bulto LNB, Butt ZA, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cameron E, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carter A, Casey DC, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro RE, Catalá-López F, Cercy K, Chang HY, Chang JC, Charlson FJ, Chew A, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Cirillo M, Cooper C, Criqui MH, Cromwell EA, Crump JA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davitoiu DV, de Courten B, De Steur H, Defo BK, Degenhardt L, Deiparine S, Deribe K, deVeber GA, Ding EL, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Dokova K, Doku DT, Donkelaar AV, Dorsey ER, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebel BE, Ebrahimi H, El-Khatib ZZ, Enayati A, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Erskine HE, Eshrati B, Eskandarieh S, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faraon EJA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fazeli MS, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JC, Ferrari AJ, Feyissa TR, Filip I, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Flaxman AD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Frank T, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad JJ, Fürst T, Furtado JM, Gakidou E, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Geleijnse JM, Geleto A, Gemechu BL, Gething PW, Gibney KB, Gill PS, Gillum RF, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glenn SD, Godwin WW, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goryakin Y, Griswold M, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Hafezi-Nejad N, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hawley C, Hay SI, He J, Hendrie D, Henry NJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Holmberg M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hostiuc S, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Huang JJ, Huang H, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ikeda C, Inoue M, Irvine CMS, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Jauregui A, Javanbakht M, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson CO, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Jürisson M, Kabir Z, Kadel R, Kahsay A, Kamal R, Karch A, Karema CK, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kelbore SG, Kemmer L, Kengne AP, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khosravi A, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim JY, Kim YJ, Kim D, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kisa A, Kissimova-Skarbek KA, Kivimaki M, Kokubo Y, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krohn KJ, Kulikoff XR, Kumar GA, Kumar Lal D, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Lalloo R, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Lazarus JV, Lee PH, Leigh J, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Liben ML, Linn S, Liu PY, Liu S, Lodha R, Looker KJ, Lopez AD, Lorkowski S, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lucas TCD, Lunevicius R, Mackay MT, Maddison ER, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malhotra R, Malta DC, Mamun AA, Manguerra H, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marks GB, Martin RV, Martinez-Raga J, Martins-Melo FR, Martopullo I, Mathur MR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGaughey M, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Mehata S, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Mengistie MA, Mensah GA, Mensink GBM, Mereta ST, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mishra SR, Mitchell PB, Mohammad KA, Mohammed KE, Mohammed S, Mohan MBV, Mokdad AH, Mollenkopf SK, Monasta L, Montañez Hernandez JC, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Morrison SD, Moses MW, Mountjoy-Venning C, Mueller UO, Muller K, Murthy GVS, Musa KI, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naidoo KS, Nangia V, Natarajan G, Negoi RI, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen QL, Nguyen TH, Nguyen G, Nguyen M, Nichols E, Ningrum DNA, Nomura M, Nong VM, Norheim OF, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ong K, Oren E, Ortiz A, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pana A, Panda BK, Panda-Jonas S, Papachristou C, Park EK, Patton GC, Paulson K, Pereira DM, Perico DN, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Piradov MA, Pishgar F, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman MA, Rahman M, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Ranabhat CL, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Reidy P, Reiner RC, Reinig N, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rios Blancas MJ, Rivas JC, Roba KT, Rojas-Rueda D, Rokni MB, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Rubagotti E, Sadat N, Safdarian M, Safi S, Safiri S, Sagar R, Salama J, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Santomauro D, Santos IS, Santos JV, Santric Milicevic MM, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Saxena S, Saylan MI, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schneider MT, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Schwendicke F, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shamsipour M, Shamsizadeh M, Shariful Islam SM, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shields C, Shifa GT, Shiferaw MS, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shirkoohi R, Shirude S, Shishani K, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silva JP, Silveira DGA, Singh JA, Singh V, Sinha DN, Skiadaresi E, Slepak EL, Sligar A, Smith DL, Smith A, Smith M, Sobaih BHA, Sobngwi E, Soljak M, Soneji S, Sorensen RJD, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Srinivasan V, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Strub B, Sufiyan MB, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Sylte DO, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tadakamadla SK, Tandon N, Tao T, Tarekegn YL, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Tegegne TK, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thankappan KR, Thrift AG, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Topor-Madry R, Torre A, Tortajada M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tsoi D, Tuem KB, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Uneke CJ, Updike R, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wadilo F, Wakayo T, Wallin MT, Wang YP, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Weiss DJ, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wijeratne T, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadgir S, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Yotebieng M, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zavala-Arciniega L, Zhang X, Zipkin B, Zodpey S, Lim SS, Murray CJL. Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet 2017; 390:1423-1459. [PMID: 28916366 PMCID: PMC5603800 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32336-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 190] [Impact Index Per Article: 27.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/15/2017] [Revised: 08/07/2017] [Accepted: 08/08/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. METHODS We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. FINDINGS Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. INTERPRETATION GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Barber RM, Fullman N, Sorensen RJD, Bollyky T, McKee M, Nolte E, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abdulle AM, Abdurahman AA, Abera SF, Abraham B, Abreha GF, Adane K, Adelekan AL, Adetifa IMO, Afshin A, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Agarwal S, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadi A, Ahmed KY, Ahmed MB, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam SS, Alemu ZA, Alene KA, Alexander L, Ali R, Ali SD, Alizadeh-Navaei R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amini E, Ammar W, Amo-Adjei J, Amoako YA, Anderson BO, Androudi S, Ansari H, Ansha MG, Antonio CAT, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Astatkie A, Atey TM, Atique S, Atnafu NT, Atre SR, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Quintanilla BPA, Awasthi A, Ayele NN, Azzopardi P, Saleem HOB, Bärnighausen T, Bacha U, Badawi A, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barrero LH, Basu S, Baune BT, Baye K, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Beyene TJ, Bhutta ZA, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Birlik SM, Birungi C, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bizuayehu HM, Bose D, Brainin M, Brauer M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Campos-Nonato IR, Car J, Carrero JJ, Casey D, Caso V, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cecilio P, Cercy K, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Chew A, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Chitheer AA, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coggeshall MS, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Dalal K, Danawi H, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davitoiu DV, Davletov K, De Leo D, Del Gobbo LC, del Pozo-Cruz B, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Des Jarlais DC, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dokova K, Dorsey ER, Doyle KE, Dubey M, Ehrenkranz R, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Enayati A, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fürst T, Faghmous IDA, Fanuel FBB, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Feigl AB, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Feyissa TR, Fischer F, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Foigt N, Foreman KJ, Forouzanfar MH, Franklin RC, Frostad J, G/hiwot TT, Gakidou E, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Gao W, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebre T, Gebremedhin AT, Gebremichael MW, Gebru AA, Gelaye AA, Geleijnse JM, Genova-Maleras R, Gibney KB, Giref AZ, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gold A, Goldberg EM, Gona PN, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Goto A, Graetz N, Greaves F, Griswold M, Guban PI, Gugnani HC, Gupta PC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta T, Gupta V, Habtewold TD, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Hakuzimana A, Hamadeh RR, Hambisa MT, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Hareri HA, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hendrie D, Heredia-Pi IB, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Htet AS, Hu G, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huntley BM, Huynh C, Iburg KM, Ileanu BV, Innos K, Irenso AA, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, James SL, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, John D, Johnson C, Johnson SC, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimi SM, Kasaeian A, Kassebaum NJ, Kastor A, Katikireddi SV, Kazanjan K, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Kerbo AA, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil I, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khang YH, Khoja ATA, Khonelidze I, Khubchandani J, Kibret GD, Kim D, Kim P, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Kokubo Y, Kolk A, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Krishnaswami S, Krohn KJ, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kumsa FA, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Lager ACJ, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lan Q, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leinsalu M, Leshargie CT, Leung J, Leung R, Levi M, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Linn S, Lipshultz SE, Liu P, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lopez AD, Lorch SA, Lotufo PA, Lozano R, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Macarayan ERK, Mackay MT, El Razek HMA, El Razek MMA, Mahdavi M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Mantovani LG, Manyazewal T, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Marks GB, Marquez N, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Massano J, Mathur MR, Maulik PK, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, McGrath JJ, McNellan C, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Meier T, Mekonnen AB, Meles KG, Memish ZA, Mengesha MM, Mengiste DT, Mengistie MA, Menota BG, Mensah GA, Mereta ST, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mezgebe HB, Micha R, Millear A, Mills EJ, Minnig S, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammed S, Mohanty SK, Mokdad AH, Mola GLD, Molokhia M, Monasta L, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Moraga P, Morawska L, Mori R, Moses M, Mueller UO, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagata C, Nagel G, Naghavi M, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nascimento BR, Negoi I, Neupane SP, Newton CR, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Ngunjiri JW, Nguyen G, Ningrum DNA, Nolte S, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norrving B, Noubiap JJN, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Okoro A, Oladimeji O, Olagunju AT, Olivares PR, Olsen HE, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osborne RH, Osman M, Owolabi MO, PA M, Pain AW, Pakhale S, Castillo EP, Pana A, Papachristou C, Parsaeian M, Patel T, Patton GC, Paudel D, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perez-Ruiz F, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pigott DM, Pillay JD, Pinho C, Polinder S, Pond CD, Prakash V, Purwar M, Qorbani M, Quistberg DA, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rai RK, Ram U, Rana SM, Rankin Z, Rao PV, Rao PC, Rawaf S, Rego MAS, Reitsma M, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMNN, Resnikoff S, Rezaei S, Rezai MS, Ribeiro AL, Roba HS, Rokni MB, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy NK, Sachdev PS, Sackey BB, Saeedi MY, Safiri S, Sagar R, Sahraian MA, Saleh MM, Salomon JA, Samy AM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sandar L, Santos IS, Santos JV, Milicevic MMS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Saylan MI, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Seid AM, Seifu CN, Sepanlou SG, Serdar B, Servan-Mori EE, Setegn T, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Shamsipour M, Islam SMS, Sharma J, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shi P, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shoman H, Shrime MG, Sibamo ELS, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Sindi S, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Sinke AH, Sinshaw AE, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Smith A, Sobngwi E, Soneji S, Soriano JB, Sousa TCM, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Steiner C, Steinke S, Stokes MA, Stranges S, Strong M, Stroumpoulis K, Sturua L, Sufiyan MB, Suliankatchi RA, Sun J, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Taffere GR, Talongwa RT, Tarajia M, Tavakkoli M, Taveira N, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Tehrani-Banihashemi A, Tekelab T, Tekle DY, Shifa GT, Terkawi AS, Tesema AG, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Tillmann T, Tiruye TY, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Tortajada M, Troeger C, Truelsen T, Tura AK, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Boven JFM, Van Dingenen R, Varughese S, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Vos T, Wagner JA, Wakayo T, Waller SG, Walson JL, Wang H, Wang YP, Watkins DA, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Wen CP, Werdecker A, Wesana J, Westerman R, Whiteford HA, Wilkinson JD, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyes BG, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Workicho A, Workie SB, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yaghoubi M, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Yimam HH, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, El Sayed Zaki M, Zambrana-Torrelio C, Zapata T, Zenebe ZM, Zodpey S, Zoeckler L, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2017; 390:231-266. [PMID: 28528753 PMCID: PMC5528124 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30818-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 307] [Impact Index Per Article: 43.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2016] [Revised: 02/26/2017] [Accepted: 02/28/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. METHODS We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. FINDINGS Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. INTERPRETATION This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum N, Kyu HH, Zoeckler L, Olsen HE, Thomas K, Pinho C, Bhutta ZA, Dandona L, Ferrari A, Ghiwot TT, Hay SI, Kinfu Y, Liang X, Lopez A, Malta DC, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Patton GC, Salomon J, Sartorius B, Topor-Madry R, Vollset SE, Werdecker A, Whiteford HA, Abate KH, Abbas K, Damtew SA, Ahmed MB, Akseer N, Al-Raddadi R, Alemayohu MA, Altirkawi K, Abajobir AA, Amare AT, Antonio CAT, Arnlov J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Bacha U, Betsu BD, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Baye E, Bedi N, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabe E, Bernal OA, Beyene AS, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Boyce CA, Brazinova A, Hailu GB, Carter A, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Charlson FJ, Chitheer AA, Choi JYJ, Ciobanu LG, Crump J, Dandona R, Dellavalle RP, Deribew A, deVeber G, Dicker D, Ding EL, Dubey M, Endries AY, Erskine HE, Faraon EJA, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fernandes JC, Fijabi DO, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming TD, Flor LS, Foreman KJ, Franklin RC, Fraser MS, Frostad JJ, Fullman N, Gebregergs GB, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gidey Yihdego M, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gizachew TA, Glaser E, Gold AL, Goldberg E, Gona P, Goto A, Gugnani HC, Jiang G, Gupta R, Tesfay FH, Hankey GJ, Havmoeller R, Hijar M, Horino M, Hosgood HD, Hu G, Jacobsen KH, Jakovljevic MB, Jayaraman SP, Jha V, Jibat T, Johnson CO, Jonas J, Kasaeian A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Khalil I, Khang YH, Khubchandani J, Ahmad Kiadaliri AA, Kieling C, Kim D, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Koyanagi A, Krohn KJ, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kulikoff R, Kumar GA, Lal DK, Lam HY, Larson HJ, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Leung J, Lim SS, Lo LT, Lo WD, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Malekzadeh R, Markos Shifti D, Mazidi M, Meaney PA, Meles KG, Memiah P, Mendoza W, Abera Mengistie M, Mengistu GW, Mensah GA, Miller TR, Mock C, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Mueller U, Nagata C, Naheed A, Nguyen G, Nguyen QL, Nsoesie E, Oh IH, Okoro A, Olusanya JO, Olusanya BO, Ortiz A, Paudel D, Pereira DM, Perico N, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Polanczyk GV, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rai RK, Ram U, Rankin Z, Remuzzi G, Renzaho AMN, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Kedir Mohammed MS, Santos IS, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Sepanlou SG, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, She J, Shiri R, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh J, Silpakit N, Smith A, Sreeramareddy C, Stanaway JD, Stein DJ, Steiner C, Sufiyan MB, Swaminathan S, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Tadese F, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Teeple S, Tegegne TK, Temam Shifa G, Terkawi AS, Thomas B, Thomson AJ, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Tran BX, Troeger C, Ukwaja KN, Uthman O, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Vlassov VV, Weiderpass E, Weintraub R, Gebrehiwot SW, Westerman R, Williams HC, Wolfe CDA, Woodbrook R, Yano Y, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaki MES, Zegeye EA, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL, Vos T. Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study. JAMA Pediatr 2017; 171:573-592. [PMID: 28384795 PMCID: PMC5540012 DOI: 10.1001/jamapediatrics.2017.0250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 250] [Impact Index Per Article: 35.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/10/2016] [Accepted: 01/16/2017] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
Importance Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health. Objective To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion. Evidence Review Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss. Findings Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries. Conclusions and Relevance Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.
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Gibney KB, O'Toole J, Sinclair M, Leder K. Burden of Disease Attributed to Waterborne Transmission of Selected Enteric Pathogens, Australia, 2010. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2017; 96:1400-1403. [PMID: 28719263 PMCID: PMC5462579 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2016] [Accepted: 02/07/2017] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
AbstractUniversal access to safe drinking water is a global priority. To estimate the annual disease burden of campylobacteriosis, nontyphoidal salmonellosis, cryptosporidiosis, giardiasis, and norovirus attributable to waterborne transmission in Australia, we multiplied regional World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of the proportion of cases attributable to waterborne transmission by estimates of all-source disease burden for each study pathogen. Norovirus was attributed as causing the most waterborne disease cases (479,632; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0-1,111,874) followed by giardiasis and campylobacteriosis. The estimated waterborne disability-adjusted life year (DALY) burden for campylobacteriosis (2,004; 95% UI: 0-5,831) was 7-fold greater than other study pathogens and exceeded the WHO guidelines for drinking water quality (1 × 10-6 DALY per person per year) by 90-fold. However, these estimates include disease transmitted via either drinking or recreational water exposure. More precise country-specific and drinking water-specific attribution estimates would better define the health burden from drinking water and inform changes to treatment requirements.
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Gibney KB, Hall R. Infectious diseases in China in the post-SARS era. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2017; 17:675-676. [PMID: 28412151 PMCID: PMC7128671 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(17)30168-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2017] [Accepted: 03/20/2017] [Indexed: 11/21/2022]
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Gibney KB, Brahmi A, O'Hara M, Morey R, Franklin L. Challenges in managing a school-based measles outbreak in Melbourne, Australia, 2014. Aust N Z J Public Health 2016; 41:80-84. [PMID: 27960246 DOI: 10.1111/1753-6405.12620] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/01/2016] [Revised: 07/01/2016] [Accepted: 08/01/2016] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To identify barriers to control of a Victorian primary school-based measles outbreak. METHODS Confirmed measles cases notified in Victoria in 2014 were reviewed. Surveillance data, correspondence, and investigation notes for the school-based outbreak were assessed regarding timeliness of diagnosis and notification, and adequacy of school-based immunisation records. RESULTS Twenty-three (31%) of the 75 measles cases notified in 2014 were school-aged (5-18 years); three had documentation of measles vaccination, 17 were unvaccinated, and three had unknown vaccination history. Eight measles outbreaks were identified, including a primary school-based outbreak with ten cases. Of the six unvaccinated pupils in the affected school, five (83%) contracted measles. The proportion of the school's prep students with documented vaccination records, as required by law, ranged from 39% in 2013 to 97% in 2014. CONCLUSIONS Inadequately vaccinated students constitute a vulnerable population and schools are a potential site for measles outbreaks. Inadequate enforcement of school-based immunisation records impact the management and control of school-based measles outbreaks. Implications for Public Health: There is a need to educate clinicians on measles diagnosis and notification, and schools on the requirement to maintain up-to-date vaccination records. School entry is an opportunity to review student vaccination history and offer immunisations.
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Gibney KB, Cheng AC, Hall R, Leder K. Sociodemographic and geographical inequalities in notifiable infectious diseases in Australia: a retrospective analysis of 21 years of national disease surveillance data. THE LANCET. INFECTIOUS DISEASES 2016; 17:86-97. [PMID: 27789179 DOI: 10.1016/s1473-3099(16)30309-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2016] [Revised: 07/20/2016] [Accepted: 07/29/2016] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Australia is a high-income country with a well established and largely publicly funded health-care system. However, some populations within Australia have shorter life expectancy and worse health outcomes than others. We explored geographical variations and sociodemographic inequities in infectious disease notifications in Australia. METHODS In this retrospective study, we analysed National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) notifications from 1991-2011 (n=2·4 million). We assessed the effect of socioeconomic disadvantage and remoteness of residence on national notification incidence. We calculated Gini coefficients, adjusted relative risks (aRRs), population attributable fractions (PAFs), and attributable notifications. We reported aRRs for Indigenous status in three jurisdictions with more than 75% completeness of Indigenous status reporting from the Northern Territory, South Australia, and Western Australia. FINDINGS Of the eight most commonly notified diseases from Jan 1, 1991, to Dec 31, 2011, gonococcal infection was the most geographically unequal and campylobacteriosis was the most evenly distributed across the country. Overall, notification incidence was higher in remote and very remote areas than in major cities (aRR 3·37), and higher in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles compared with less disadvantaged quintiles (aRR 1·15). The PAF for socioeconomic disadvantage was high for blood-borne viral hepatitis but decreased in other disease groups. In 2011, sexually transmitted infections had 11 093 notifications attributed to remoteness and 5597 notifications attributable to socioeconomic disadvantage. Notification incidence was higher in Indigenous than in non-Indigenous Australians (aRR 5·3). INTERPRETATION All diseases had differing geographical concentration and sociodemographic risk. Overall, sociodemographic inequities in infectious disease notifications have decreased, but remain unacceptably high. National communicable disease control is complex, requiring both targeted and population-wide interventions. FUNDING None.
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Khalil I, Colombara DV, Forouzanfar MH, Troeger C, Daoud F, Moradi-Lakeh M, Bcheraoui CE, Rao PC, Afshin A, Charara R, Abate KH, Razek MMAE, Abd-Allah F, Abu-Elyazeed R, Kiadaliri AA, Akanda AS, Akseer N, Alam K, Alasfoor D, Ali R, AlMazroa MA, Alomari MA, Al-Raddadi RMS, Alsharif U, Alsowaidi S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Ammar W, Antonio CAT, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Awasthi A, Bacha U, Badawi A, Barac A, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bensenor IM, Betsu BD, Bhutta Z, Abdulhak AAB, Butt ZA, Danawi H, Dubey M, Endries AY, Faghmous IDA, Farid T, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Gishu MD, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hailu GB, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Harb HL, Hedayati MT, Hsairi M, Husseini A, Jahanmehr N, Javanbakht M, Jibat T, Jonas JB, Kasaeian A, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khan G, Khoja TAM, Kinfu Y, Kissoon N, Koyanagi A, Lal A, Latif AAA, Lunevicius R, Razek HMAE, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mehari A, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Misganaw A, Mohamed LAI, Nachega JB, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Peprah EK, Platts-Mills JA, Pourmalek F, Qorbani M, Rafay A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Riddle M, Roshandel G, Ruhago GM, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sawhney M, Sepanlou SG, Setegn T, Sliwa K, Sreeramareddy CT, Sykes BL, Tavakkoli M, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Ukwaja K, Uthman OA, Westerman R, Wubshet M, Yenesew MA, Yonemoto N, Younis MZ, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Rabeeah AAA, Wang H, Naghavi M, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Mokdad AH. Burden of Diarrhea in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2016; 95:1319-1329. [PMID: 27928080 PMCID: PMC5154365 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.16-0339] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2016] [Accepted: 07/03/2016] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
Abstract
Diarrheal diseases (DD) are leading causes of disease burden, death, and disability, especially in children in low-income settings. DD can also impact a child's potential livelihood through stunted physical growth, cognitive impairment, and other sequelae. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study, we estimated DD burden, and the burden attributable to specific risk factors and particular etiologies, in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) between 1990 and 2013. For both sexes and all ages, we calculated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which are the sum of years of life lost and years lived with disability. We estimate that over 125,000 deaths (3.6% of total deaths) were due to DD in the EMR in 2013, with a greater burden of DD in low- and middle-income countries. Diarrhea deaths per 100,000 children under 5 years of age ranged from one (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = 0-1) in Bahrain and Oman to 471 (95% UI = 245-763) in Somalia. The pattern for diarrhea DALYs among those under 5 years of age closely followed that for diarrheal deaths. DALYs per 100,000 ranged from 739 (95% UI = 520-989) in Syria to 40,869 (95% UI = 21,540-65,823) in Somalia. Our results highlighted a highly inequitable burden of DD in EMR, mainly driven by the lack of access to proper resources such as water and sanitation. Our findings will guide preventive and treatment interventions which are based on evidence and which follow the ultimate goal of reducing the DD burden.
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Wang H, Naghavi M, Allen C, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fraser MS, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Huynh C, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kinfu Y, Kulikoff XR, Kutz M, Kyu HH, Larson HJ, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lind M, Lozano R, Marquez N, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Roth GA, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Silpakit N, Sligar A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, VanderZanden A, Vollset SE, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Wolock T, Zoeckler L, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abera SF, Abreu DMX, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abyu GY, Achoki T, Adelekan AL, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agrawal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ajala ON, Akanda AS, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju TF, Akseer N, Lami FHA, Alabed S, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Alasfoor D, Aldhahri SF, Aldridge RW, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amegah AK, Ameh EA, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson BO, Anderson GM, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Bahit MC, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Basu S, Bayou YT, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Belay HA, Bell B, Bell ML, Bello AK, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhalla A, Biadgilign S, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biroscak BJ, Biryukov S, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Blosser CD, Bohensky MA, Borschmann R, Bose D, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brayne CEG, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Brewer JD, Brown A, Brown J, Brugha TS, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Cercy K, Cerda J, Chen W, Chew A, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chimed-Ochir O, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Cohen AJ, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cooper LT, Cortinovis M, Cowie BC, Crump JA, Damsere-Derry J, Danawi H, Dandona R, Daoud F, Darby SC, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, de Castro EF, de Jager P, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, dos Santos KPB, Dossou E, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ellenbogen RG, Ellingsen CL, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Faghmous IDA, Fahimi S, Faraon EJA, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Flaxman A, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franca EB, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gall SL, Gambashidze K, Gamkrelidze A, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Gebru AA, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Ghoshal AG, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Gilmour S, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gosselin RA, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Greaves F, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Heckbert SR, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hilderink HBM, Hoek HW, Hogg RS, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hotez PJ, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Htet AS, Htike MMT, Hu G, Huang C, Huang H, Huiart L, Husseini A, Huybrechts I, Huynh G, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobs TA, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, James P, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jonas JB, Joshi TK, Kabir Z, Kamal R, Kan H, Kant S, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Karletsos D, Karthikeyan G, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kayibanda JF, Keiyoro PN, Kemmer L, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kereselidze M, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Kieling C, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissela BM, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Krog NH, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kulkarni VS, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lal DK, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Lansingh VC, Larsson A, Laryea DO, Latif AA, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leigh J, Levi M, Li Y, Lindsay MP, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu S, Liu Y, Lo LT, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Machado VMP, Mackay MT, MacLachlan JH, Razek HMAE, Magdy M, Razek AE, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Manamo WAA, Mandisarisa J, Mangalam S, Mapoma CC, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martin GR, Martinez-Raga J, Marzan MB, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Massano J, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mehndiratta MM, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Micha R, Millear A, Miller TR, Mirarefin M, Misganaw A, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Mohan V, Mola GLD, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montero P, Montico M, Montine TJ, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Morgan K, Mori R, Mozaffarian D, Mueller UO, Murthy GVS, Murthy S, Musa KI, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naidoo KS, Naik N, Naldi L, Nangia V, Nash D, Nejjari C, Neupane S, Newton CR, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nomura M, Norheim OF, Norman PE, Norrving B, Nyakarahuka L, Ogbo FA, Ohkubo T, Ojelabi FA, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Opio JN, Oren E, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, Ozdemir R, PA M, Pain A, Pandian JD, Pant PR, Papachristou C, Park EK, Park JH, Parry CD, Parsaeian M, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Paul VK, Pearce N, Pedro JM, Stokic LP, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pope CA, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Qorbani M, Quame-Amaglo J, Quistberg DA, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajavi Z, Rajsic S, Raju M, Rakovac I, Rana SM, Ranabhat CL, Rangaswamy T, Rao P, Rao SR, Refaat AH, Rehm J, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Blancas MJR, Roberts B, Roca A, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Roy NK, Ruhago GM, Sagar R, Saha S, Sahathevan R, Saleh MM, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Sanchez-Riera L, Santos IS, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaddick G, Shaheen A, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Shakh-Nazarova M, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Shen Z, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shetty BP, Shi P, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silberberg DH, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh GM, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Singh V, Soneji S, Søreide K, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tabb KM, Takahashi K, Takala JS, Talongwa RT, Tandon N, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Tefera WM, Have MT, Terkawi AS, Tesfay FH, Tessema GA, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tillmann T, Tirschwell DL, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Towbin JA, Traebert J, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Trujillo U, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Uchendu US, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uthman OA, Dingenen RV, van Donkelaar A, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Vidavalur R, Vijayakumar L, Villalpando S, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Wagner JA, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Wong JQ, Woolf AD, Xavier D, Xiao Q, Xu G, Yakob B, Yalew AZ, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yirsaw BD, Yonemoto N, Yonga G, Younis MZ, Yu S, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zannad F, Zavala DE, Zeeb H, Zeleke BM, Zhang H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1459-1544. [PMID: 27733281 PMCID: PMC5388903 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31012-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4031] [Impact Index Per Article: 503.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. METHODS We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. INTERPRETATION At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Kassebaum NJ, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown J, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Coates MM, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Foreman K, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kutz MJ, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lozano R, Mensah GA, Mikesell J, Mokdad AH, Mooney MD, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Sorensen RJD, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Troeger C, Truelsen T, VanderZanden A, Wagner JA, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zhou M, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Achoki T, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Adedeji IA, Adsuar JC, Afanvi KA, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Agarwal SK, Ahmed MB, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Aleman AV, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Allen C, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Martin EA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amegah AK, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Anwari P, Ärnlöv J, Arsenijevic VSA, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Asghar RJ, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu S, Bayou TA, Beardsley J, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhansali A, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Abdulhak AAB, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore JD, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Bourne RRA, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brugha TS, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Cavalleri F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibalabala M, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Choudhury L, Christensen H, Ciobanu LG, Colistro V, Colomar M, Colquhoun SM, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damasceno A, Dandona R, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Ding EL, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Esteghamati A, Estep K, Fahimi S, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foigt N, Fowkes FGR, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Gankpé FG, Garcia-Basteiro AL, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gibney KB, Gillum RF, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Gugnani H, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Hassanvand MS, Hassen TA, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Hedayati MT, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Hoffman DJ, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Hsairi M, Huang H, Huang JJ, Iburg KM, Idrisov BT, Innos K, Inoue M, Jacobsen KH, Jauregui A, Jayatilleke AU, Jeemon P, Jha V, Jiang G, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kajungu DK, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Kandel A, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Katibeh M, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Kazi DS, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Kengne AP, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Kivipelto M, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Defo BK, Kuchenbecker RS, Bicer BK, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kwan GF, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Larsson A, Latif AA, Lavados PM, Lawrynowicz AEB, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Li Y, Li Y, Lipshultz SE, Liu PY, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lucas RM, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Razek HMAE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malta DC, Marcenes W, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Mason-Jones AJ, Matzopoulos R, Mayosi BM, McGrath JJ, McKee M, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mesfin YM, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mirrakhimov EM, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammad KA, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Moradi-Lakeh M, Mori R, Mueller UO, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Murthy GVS, Nachega JB, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Obermeyer CM, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Oladimeji O, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Oren E, Ortiz A, Ota E, Oyekale AS, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pedro JM, Pereira DM, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Polinder S, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai D, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Raju M, Ram U, Ranganathan K, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Ricci S, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Roy A, Sackey BB, Sagar R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schutte AE, Schwebel DC, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shahraz S, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shen J, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shigematsu M, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silverberg JI, Simard EP, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh PK, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Stein MB, Steiner TJ, Stovner LJ, Stranges S, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur PJ, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tegegne TK, Tekle DY, Terkawi AS, Tessema GA, Thakur JS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, van Os J, Vasankari T, Vasconcelos AMN, Venketasubramanian N, Violante FS, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Wallin MT, Wang L, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, Wijeratne T, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Woldeyohannes SM, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yakob B, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zodpey S, Zonies D, Zuhlke LJ, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1603-1658. [PMID: 27733283 PMCID: PMC5388857 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31460-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1387] [Impact Index Per Article: 173.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/29/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Vos T, Allen C, Arora M, Barber RM, Bhutta ZA, Brown A, Carter A, Casey DC, Charlson FJ, Chen AZ, Coggeshall M, Cornaby L, Dandona L, Dicker DJ, Dilegge T, Erskine HE, Ferrari AJ, Fitzmaurice C, Fleming T, Forouzanfar MH, Fullman N, Gething PW, Goldberg EM, Graetz N, Haagsma JA, Hay SI, Johnson CO, Kassebaum NJ, Kawashima T, Kemmer L, Khalil IA, Kinfu Y, Kyu HH, Leung J, Liang X, Lim SS, Lopez AD, Lozano R, Marczak L, Mensah GA, Mokdad AH, Naghavi M, Nguyen G, Nsoesie E, Olsen H, Pigott DM, Pinho C, Rankin Z, Reinig N, Salomon JA, Sandar L, Smith A, Stanaway J, Steiner C, Teeple S, Thomas BA, Troeger C, Wagner JA, Wang H, Wanga V, Whiteford HA, Zoeckler L, Abajobir AA, Abate KH, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abd-Allah F, Abraham B, Abubakar I, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abu-Rmeileh NME, Ackerman IN, Adebiyi AO, Ademi Z, Adou AK, Afanvi KA, Agardh EE, Agarwal A, Kiadaliri AA, Ahmadieh H, Ajala ON, Akinyemi RO, Akseer N, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam NKM, Aldhahri SF, Alegretti MA, Alemu ZA, Alexander LT, Alhabib S, Ali R, Alkerwi A, Alla F, Allebeck P, Al-Raddadi R, Alsharif U, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare AT, Amberbir A, Amini H, Ammar W, Amrock SM, Andersen HH, Anderson GM, Anderson BO, Antonio CAT, Aregay AF, Ärnlöv J, Artaman A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Atique S, Avokpaho EFGA, Awasthi A, Quintanilla BPA, Azzopardi P, Bacha U, Badawi A, Balakrishnan K, Banerjee A, Barac A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen T, Barregard L, Barrero LH, Basu A, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Beghi E, Bell B, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Benzian H, Berhane A, Bernabé E, Betsu BD, Beyene AS, Bhala N, Bhatt S, Biadgilign S, Bienhoff K, Bikbov B, Biryukov S, Bisanzio D, Bjertness E, Blore J, Borschmann R, Boufous S, Brainin M, Brazinova A, Breitborde NJK, Brown J, Buchbinder R, Buckle GC, Butt ZA, Calabria B, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano JC, Carabin H, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Carrero JJ, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Rivas JC, Catalá-López F, Chang JC, Chiang PPC, Chibueze CE, Chisumpa VH, Choi JYJ, Chowdhury R, Christensen H, Christopher DJ, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Coates MM, Colquhoun SM, Cooper C, Cortinovis M, Crump JA, Damtew SA, Dandona R, Daoud F, Dargan PI, das Neves J, Davey G, Davis AC, Leo DD, Degenhardt L, Gobbo LCD, Dellavalle RP, Deribe K, Deribew A, Derrett S, Jarlais DCD, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon PK, Diaz-Torné C, Ding EL, Driscoll TR, Duan L, Dubey M, Duncan BB, Ebrahimi H, Ellenbogen RG, Elyazar I, Endres M, Endries AY, Ermakov SP, Eshrati B, Estep K, Farid TA, Farinha CSES, Faro A, Farvid MS, Farzadfar F, Feigin VL, Felson DT, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fernandes JG, Fernandes JC, Fischer F, Fitchett JRA, Foreman K, Fowkes FGR, Fox J, Franklin RC, Friedman J, Frostad J, Fürst T, Futran ND, Gabbe B, Ganguly P, Gankpé FG, Gebre T, Gebrehiwot TT, Gebremedhin AT, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Gibney KB, Ginawi IAM, Giref AZ, Giroud M, Gishu MD, Giussani G, Glaser E, Godwin WW, Gomez-Dantes H, Gona P, Goodridge A, Gopalani SV, Gotay CC, Goto A, Gouda HN, Grainger R, Greaves F, Guillemin F, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta R, Gupta V, Gutiérrez RA, Haile D, Hailu AD, Hailu GB, Halasa YA, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hammami M, Hancock J, Handal AJ, Hankey GJ, Hao Y, Harb HL, Harikrishnan S, Haro JM, Havmoeller R, Hay RJ, Heredia-Pi IB, Heydarpour P, Hoek HW, Horino M, Horita N, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Htet AS, Huang H, Huang JJ, Huynh C, Iannarone M, Iburg KM, Innos K, Inoue M, Iyer VJ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic MB, Javanbakht M, Jayaraman SP, Jayatilleke AU, Jee SH, Jeemon P, Jensen PN, Jiang Y, Jibat T, Jimenez-Corona A, Jin Y, Jonas JB, Kabir Z, Kalkonde Y, Kamal R, Kan H, Karch A, Karema CK, Karimkhani C, Kasaeian A, Kaul A, Kawakami N, Keiyoro PN, Kemp AH, Keren A, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khan AR, Khan EA, Khang YH, Khera S, Khoja TAM, Khubchandani J, Kieling C, Kim P, Kim CI, Kim D, Kim YJ, Kissoon N, Knibbs LD, Knudsen AK, Kokubo Y, Kolte D, Kopec JA, Kosen S, Kotsakis GA, Koul PA, Koyanagi A, Kravchenko M, Defo BK, Bicer BK, Kudom AA, Kuipers EJ, Kumar GA, Kutz M, Kwan GF, Lal A, Lalloo R, Lallukka T, Lam H, Lam JO, Langan SM, Larsson A, Lavados PM, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Leung R, Levi M, Li Y, Li Y, Liang J, Liu S, Liu Y, Lloyd BK, Lo WD, Logroscino G, Looker KJ, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Mackay MT, Magdy M, Razek AE, Mahdavi M, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Marcenes W, Margolis DJ, Martinez-Raga J, Masiye F, Massano J, McGarvey ST, McGrath JJ, McKee M, McMahon BJ, Meaney PA, Mehari A, Mejia-Rodriguez F, Mekonnen AB, Melaku YA, Memiah P, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Meretoja A, Meretoja TJ, Mhimbira FA, Millear A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mirarefin M, Mitchell PB, Mock CN, Mohammadi A, Mohammed S, Monasta L, Hernandez JCM, Montico M, Mooney MD, Moradi-Lakeh M, Morawska L, Mueller UO, Mullany E, Mumford JE, Murdoch ME, Nachega JB, Nagel G, Naheed A, Naldi L, Nangia V, Newton JN, Ng M, Ngalesoni FN, Nguyen QL, Nisar MI, Pete PMN, Nolla JM, Norheim OF, Norman RE, Norrving B, Nunes BP, Ogbo FA, Oh IH, Ohkubo T, Olivares PR, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Ortiz A, Osman M, Ota E, PA M, Park EK, Parsaeian M, de Azeredo Passos VM, Caicedo AJP, Patten SB, Patton GC, Pereira DM, Perez-Padilla R, Perico N, Pesudovs K, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Piel FB, Pillay JD, Pishgar F, Plass D, Platts-Mills JA, Polinder S, Pond CD, Popova S, Poulton RG, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Prasad NM, Qorbani M, Rabiee RHS, Radfar A, Rafay A, Rahimi K, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman M, Rahman MHU, Rahman SU, Rai RK, Rajsic S, Ram U, Rao P, Refaat AH, Reitsma MB, Remuzzi G, Resnikoff S, Reynolds A, Ribeiro AL, Blancas MJR, Roba HS, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Roshandel G, Roth GA, Rothenbacher D, Roy A, Sagar R, Sahathevan R, Sanabria JR, Sanchez-Niño MD, Santos IS, Santos JV, Sarmiento-Suarez R, Sartorius B, Satpathy M, Savic M, Sawhney M, Schaub MP, Schmidt MI, Schneider IJC, Schöttker B, Schwebel DC, Scott JG, Seedat S, Sepanlou SG, Servan-Mori EE, Shackelford KA, Shaheen A, Shaikh MA, Sharma R, Sharma U, Shen J, Shepard DS, Sheth KN, Shibuya K, Shin MJ, Shiri R, Shiue I, Shrime MG, Sigfusdottir ID, Silva DAS, Silveira DGA, Singh A, Singh JA, Singh OP, Singh PK, Sivonda A, Skirbekk V, Skogen JC, Sligar A, Sliwa K, Soljak M, Søreide K, Sorensen RJD, Soriano JB, Sposato LA, Sreeramareddy CT, Stathopoulou V, Steel N, Stein DJ, Steiner TJ, Steinke S, Stovner L, Stroumpoulis K, Sunguya BF, Sur P, Swaminathan S, Sykes BL, Szoeke CEI, Tabarés-Seisdedos R, Takala JS, Tandon N, Tanne D, Tavakkoli M, Taye B, Taylor HR, Ao BJT, Tedla BA, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Thrift AG, Thurston GD, Tobe-Gai R, Tonelli M, Topor-Madry R, Topouzis F, Tran BX, Truelsen T, Dimbuene ZT, Tsilimbaris M, Tura AK, Tuzcu EM, Tyrovolas S, Ukwaja KN, Undurraga EA, Uneke CJ, Uthman OA, van Gool CH, Varakin YY, Vasankari T, Venketasubramanian N, Verma RK, Violante FS, Vladimirov SK, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Wagner GR, Waller SG, Wang L, Watkins DA, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Werdecker A, Westerman R, White RA, Williams HC, Wiysonge CS, Wolfe CDA, Won S, Woodbrook R, Wubshet M, Xavier D, Xu G, Yadav AK, Yan LL, Yano Y, Yaseri M, Ye P, Yebyo HG, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Yoon SJ, Younis MZ, Yu C, Zaidi Z, Zaki MES, Zeeb H, Zhou M, Zodpey S, Zuhlke LJ, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388:1545-1602. [PMID: 27733282 PMCID: PMC5055577 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(16)31678-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4522] [Impact Index Per Article: 565.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2016] [Revised: 08/11/2016] [Accepted: 08/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. METHODS We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. FINDINGS We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15·4-19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30-2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35-2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. INTERPRETATION Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Gibney KB, Franklin LJ, Stephens N. Infectious diseases notification practices, Victoria 2013. Commun Dis Intell (2018) 2016; 40:E317-E325. [PMID: 28278404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Infectious disease notification practices in Victoria were reviewed to identify areas for potential improvement. METHODS Confirmed or probable cases of certain infectious diseases required to be notified to the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Victoria in 2013, excluding elevated blood lead, foodborne or water-borne illness with 2 or more related cases and chlamydial infection, were analysed according to: notification source of doctor ± laboratory vs. laboratory-only; routine follow-up by public health staff for selected conditions vs. not routine; priority for Indigenous status reporting for 18 priority conditions with a target of ≥ 95% completeness vs. other conditions with a target of ≥ 80% completeness; and urgency of notification (conditions requiring immediate [same day] notification vs. conditions requiring notification within 5 days). RESULTS Almost half (49%) the 34,893 confirmed and probable cases were notified by laboratory report alone. Indigenous status was complete for 48% of cases. Indigenous status was more likely to be completed for conditions with active vs. no active follow-up (RR 1.88 (95% CI 1.84-1.92)) and priority conditions for Indigenous status reporting vs. other conditions (RR 1.62 (95% CI 1.59-1.66)). Among conditions without active follow-up, doctor-notified cases had more complete Indigenous status reporting than laboratory-only notified cases (86% vs. 6%, RR 15.06 (95% CI 14.15-16.03)). Fewer notifications requiring same day notification were received within the legislated time frame (59%) than notifications required to be notified within 5 days (90%). DISCUSSION DHHS Victoria handles a large volume of infectious disease notifications. Incomplete Indigenous status reporting, particularly for conditions without active follow-up, and delayed notification of conditions requiring immediate attention warrant attention. These findings will be used to improve notification practices in Victoria. Commun Dis Intell 2016;40(3):E317-E325.
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Neave PE, Heywood AE, Gibney KB, Leder K. Imported infections: What information should be collected by surveillance systems to inform public health policy? Travel Med Infect Dis 2016; 14:350-9. [PMID: 27235839 PMCID: PMC7110684 DOI: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2016.05.007] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/16/2015] [Revised: 05/10/2016] [Accepted: 05/17/2016] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Background International travel carries the risk of imported diseases, which are an increasingly significant public health problem. There is little guidance about which variables should be collected by surveillance systems for strategy-based surveillance. Methods Surveillance forms for dengue, malaria, hepatitis A, typhoid and measles were collected from Australia and New Zealand and information on these compared with national surveillance forms from the UK and Canada by travel health experts. Variables were categorised by information relating to recent travel, demographics and disease severity. Results Travel-related information most commonly requested included country of travel, vaccination status and travel dates. In Australia, ethnicity information requested related to indigenous status, whilst in New Zealand it could be linked to census categories. Severity of disease information most frequently collected were hospitalisation and death. Conclusions Reviewing the usefulness of variables collected resulted in the recommendation that those included should be: overseas travel, reason for travel, entry and departure dates during the incubation period, vaccination details, traveller's and/or parents' country of birth, country of usual residence, time resident in current country, postcode, hospitalisation and death details. There was no agreement about whether ethnicity details should be collected. The inclusion of these variables on surveillance forms could enable imported infection-related policy to be formulated nationally and internationally.
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