[Resting heart rate correlates with major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in patients with post-myocardial infarction ventricular aneurysms: a retrospective cohort study]

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the association of resting heart rate (RHR) with the prognosis of patients with post-infarction ventricular aneurysms.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 227 patients with post-infarction ventricular aneurysms admitted to our hospital during 2017-2019. The endpoint event was the occurrence of any major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) during the follow-up for 24 months. According to RHR measurements, the patients were divided into 3 groups with baseline RHR < 10%, 10%-90%, and >90%. The Cox proportional risk model and restricted cubic spline (RCS) model were used to analyze the effect of RHR on MACCEs.

RESULTS

During the 24-month followup, 90 patients (39.6%) experienced MACCEs. The fully adjusted RCS curves showed a nonlinear "U" shaped correlation between RHR and the occurrence of MACCEs. In the fully adjusted model, the risk of MACCEs increased by 3.01-fold (Hazard ratio [HR]=4.01, 95% CI: 2.07-7.76, P < 0.001) in patients with RHR>90%, as compared with patients with RHR of 10%-90%. In patients with RHR in 1-9th percentile, 10th-90th percentile and 91st-100th percentile, the incidences of MACCEs were 39.1%, 36.6% and 66.7% (P=0.027), the incidences of ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation (VT/VF) were 17.4%, 2.7% and 4.8% (P=0.005), and the incidences of readmission for heart failure were 8.7%, 26.8% and 42.9% (P=0.036), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Continuous monitoring and management of heart rate range may provide guidance for prognosis prediction in patients with post-infarction ventricular aneurysms.

A35 FORECASTING THE INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE: A CANADIAN NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Canada is currently in the third epidemiological stage in the evolution of IBD: compounding prevalence. A high incidence of IBD, in conjunction with low mortality, leads to a steadily rising prevalence over time. By understanding historical epidemiological trends, we can forecast incidence and prevalence into the future to inform healthcare systems in Canada of the rising burden of IBD to society.

Purpose

To analyze past epidemiological trends in order to forecast the overall incidence and prevalence of IBD, Crohn’s disease (CD), and ulcerative colitis (UC) and stratified by age (<18, 18-64, 65+).

Method

Canadian population-based administrative data was acquired from: AB, BC, SK, MB, QC, and ON. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and provincial data aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population for prevalence (2002-2014) and incidence (2007-2014: 5-year washout period). Incidence and prevalence (per 100,000 persons) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), using Canadian population estimates from Statistics Canada for IBD, CD, UC (IBD-unclassifiable+UC). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created, and rates forecasted from 2014 to 2035 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) for incidence and log binomial regression for prevalence estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

The 2014 incidence of IBD in Canada was 28.4 per 100,000 (95%CI: 27.8, 29.0) and forecasted to significantly increase (AAPC: 0.58%; 95%CI: 0.04, 1.04) from 30.0 per 100,000 in 2023 to 32.1 (95%PI: 27.9, 36.3) in 2035. Pediatric onset IBD was 13.9 per 100,000 (95%CI: 13.0, 14.9) in 2014 and is forecasted to significantly increase to 18.0 per 100,000 (95%PI: 15.7, 20.2) in 2035 with an AAPC of 1.23% (95%CI: 0.76, 1.63). Adult and elderly onset incidence rates were forecasted to remain stable. Prevalence of IBD increased between 2002 (389 per 100,000) and 2014 (636 per 100,000) and is forecasted to continue to climb by an AAPC of 2.44% (95%CI: 2.34, 2.53). In 2023, the prevalence of IBD is 825 per 100,000. By 2035 prevalence is forecasted to climb to 1075 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1047, 1103) with 470,000 Canadians living with IBD. Prevalence across all age strata were forecasted to significantly increase. The highest AAPC was seen in the elderly (2.76%; 95%CI: 2.73, 2.79) with a prevalence of 841 per 100,000 (95%CI: 834, 849) in 2014 and forecasted to climb to 1534 per 100,000 (95%PI: 1519, 1550) in 2035.

Image

Conclusion(s)

Incidence of IBD continues to rise in Canada, driven by pediatric-onset IBD. In 2023, over 320,000 Canadians (0.83%) will be living with IBD. By 2035 prevalence will exceed 1% of the population with approximately 470,000 individuals in Canada with IBD. Future research should establish the environmental determinates of IBD that may influence temporal trends in the incidence of IBD, while healthcare systems adapt to the compounding prevalence of IBD.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR, Other

Please indicate your source of funding;

The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc., L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A210 THE BURDEN OF IBD HOSPITALIZATION IN CANADA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT AND FUTURE BURDEN IN A NATION-WIDE ANALYSIS

Background

Hospitalizations pose a significant burden on both the individual and the healthcare system. Those with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at increased risk of hospitalization as compared to the general population due to flaring of disease activity and complications related to IBD. The advent of biologics over the past twenty years may have influenced the rates of hospitalization for IBD.

Purpose

To assess current and forecast the overall hospitalization rates of those with IBD stratified by types of hospitalizations (all cause hospitalizations, IBD-related, and IBD-specific).

Method

Population-based administrative data on hospitalization of IBD (2002-2014) were obtained from: AB, BC, MB, and SK. Data were age and sex standardized to the matching year and aggregated into a representative sample of the Canadian population. Hospitalization rates were assessed as follows: 1. All cause hospitalizations: all admissions regardless of indication; 2. IBD-specific: an admission directly resulting from IBD (e.g., IBD-flare); 3. IBD-related: an admission for IBD, or a symptom or comorbidity associated with IBD (e.g. rheumatoid arthritis). Using prevalence estimates from the provinces, hospitalization rates (per 100 persons with IBD) were calculated, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models were created to estimate number of hospitalizations and corresponding prevalence to forecast hospitalization rates to 2030 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Poisson (or negative binomial) regression estimated the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC), with 95% CIs, of the forecasted data.

Result(s)

In 2002 there were 35.3 per 100 (95%CI: 34.7, 35.9) all cause hospitalizations for IBD patients and this decreased to 24.9 per 100 (24.5, 25.2) in 2014. Similar trends were seen for IBD-specific hospitalizations [16.8 per 100 (95%CI: 16.4, 17.2) in 2002 to 8.7 per 100 (95%CI: 8.5, 9.0) in 2014] and IBD-related (22.6 per 100 (95%CI: 22.1, 23.1) in 2002 to 13.4 per 100 (95%CI: 13.2, 13.7) in 2014). When forecasted out to 2030 all hospitalization types were significantly decreasing—the AAPC for all cause hospitalizations was -2.12% (95%CI: -2.31, -1.93), -3.77% (95%CI: -4.63, -3.08) for IBD-specific, and -3.09% (95%CI: -3.65, -2.62) for IBD-related. By 2030, the rates of hospitalization are forecasted to be 17.0 per 100 (95%PI: 16.2, 17.9), 4.6 per 100 (95%PI: 3.7, 5.4), and 7.9 per 100 (95%PI: 6.9, 8.9) for all cause, IBD-specific, and IBD-related, respectively.

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Conclusion(s)

In Canada, rates of hospitalizations for those with IBD have decreased from 2002 to 2014. The use of anti-TNF therapy in conjunction with the evolution of clinical monitoring, management and guidelines, likely has contributed to dropping hospitalization rates. Forecast models estimate a continued drop in hospitalization rates out to 2030. Importantly, healthcare resource planning should account for the shift from hospital-based to clinic-centric models of IBD care.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

A169 THE DIRECT COSTS OF INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE IN CANADA: A POPULATION-BASED ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL AND CURRENT COSTS

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a costly disease to manage due to hospitalizations, regular ambulatory monitoring, and expensive pharmaceutical therapies. While hospitalization rates have fallen, the increased use of biologics have escalated the cost of care to the healthcare system.

Purpose

To assess historical direct healthcare costs of the IBD population in Canada.

Method

Population-based administrative costing data were obtained from: Alberta, British Columbia, and Manitoba. Costs were calculated based on administrative data (2009 to 2016) which captured: hospitalizations, physician costs, ambulatory care such as: emergency visits, day surgery, and colonoscopy (AB only), and medication costs of IBD-specific medications, such as: mesalamine, biologics, steroids, and immunomodulators. Costs were converted to 2020 dollars using the consumer price index. Average annual cost per person (ACPP) was calculated for each province. Using province specific IBD prevalence estimates these ACPP were meta-analyzed to obtain the annual weighted costs, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and these costs underwent meta-regression to ascertain the average annual change in cost per year. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model was created to estimate the ACPP in 2023 with 95% prediction intervals (PI). Canada-wide total direct care costs of IBD patients, in billions (B), were calculated using the ACPP, Canada-specific IBD prevalence estimates (historical and forecasted), and total Canadian population calculations from Statistics Canada (historical and forecasted).

Result(s)

In 2009 the ACPP was $7000 (95%CI: 5389, 8610), representing $1.18B (95%CI: 0.91B, 1.45B) in direct healthcare costs in Canada for all IBD patients. The ACPP in 2016 was increased to $10,336 (95%CI: 6803, 13869), which equates to $2.37B (95%CI: 1.56B, 3.18B) per year in direct healthcare costs. From 2009 to 2016, the ACPP increased an average of $450 (95%CI: 132, 767) per year. If these historical trends continue to 2023 the ACPP is forecasted to be $13,333 (95%PI: 12827, 13839) per person per year. The largest contributor to these costs is medications—accounting for an estimated 50% of the total costs of IBD patients.

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Conclusion(s)

The direct healthcare cost of IBD has risen steadily from 2009 to 2016 when the healthcare system spent over $10,000 per person with IBD and $2.37B nationwide. The primary driver of costs is medical management. Forecast models estimate that the annual cost may be over $13,000 per person in 2023. However, these estimates do not account for advent and increased uptake of novel biologics and small molecules, nor the downward cost pressure of biosimilars. These costs are those paid directly by the healthcare system and do not account for those born by the individual—it is estimated that the true cost of IBD (direct and indirect) is much higher.

Please acknowledge all funding agencies by checking the applicable boxes below

CIHR

Disclosure of Interest

S. Coward: None Declared, E. Benchimol Consultant of: Hoffman La-Roche Limited and Peabody & Arnold LLP for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease and McKesson Canada and the Dairy Farmers of Ontario for matters unrelated to medications used to treat inflammatory bowel disease., C. Bernstein Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, and Takeda Canada. Has received research grants from Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Pfizer Canada, and Sandoz Canada and contract grants from Janssen, Abbvie and Pfizer, Consultant of: Abbvie Canada, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, JAMP Pharmaceuticals, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada, Sandoz Canada, and Takeda., Speakers bureau of: Abbvie Canada, Janssen Canada, Pfizer Canada and Takeda Canada, J. A. Avina-Zubieta: None Declared, A. Bitton: None Declared, L. Hracs: None Declared, J. Jones Consultant of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, Speakers bureau of: Janssen, Abbvie, Pfizer, Takeda, E. Kuenzig: None Declared, L. Lu: None Declared, S. Murthy: None Declared, Z. Nugent: None Declared, A. Otley Grant / Research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie Canada and Janssen Canada, Consultant of: Advisory boards of AbbVie Canada, Janssen Canada and Nestle, R. Panaccione Consultant of: Abbott, AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Cosmos Pharmaceuticals, Eisai, Elan, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz, Satisfai Health, Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Theravance Biopharma, Trellus, Viatris, UCB. Advisory Boards for: AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts), Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, Biogen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Glaxo-Smith Kline, JAMP Bio, Janssen, Merck, Mylan, Novartis, Oppilan Pharma, Organon, Pandion Pharma, Pfizer, Progenity, Protagonist Therapeutics, Roche, Sandoz Shire, Sublimity Therapeutics, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Amgen, Arena Pharmaceuticals, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Fresenius Kabi, Gilead Sciences, Janssen, Merck, Organon, Pfizer, Roche, Sandoz, Shire, Takeda Pharmaceuticals, J.-N. Pena-Sanchez: None Declared, H. Singh Consultant of: Pendopharm, Amgen Canada, Bristol Myers Squibb Canada, Roche Canada, Sandoz Canada, Takeda Canada, and Guardant Health, Inc.,, L. Targownik Grant / Research support from: Investigator initiated funding from Janssen Canada, Consultant of: [Advisory board] AbbVie Canada, Takeda Canada, Merck Canada, Pfizer Canada, Janssen Canada, Roche Canada, and Sandoz Canada, J. Windsor: None Declared, G. Kaplan Grant / Research support from: Ferring, Janssen, AbbVie, GlaxoSmith Kline, Merck, and Shire, Consultant of: Gilead, Speakers bureau of: AbbVie, Janssen, Pfizer, Amgen, and Takeda

Limits to Gauge Coupling in the Dark Sector Set by the Nonobservation of Instanton-Induced Decay of Super-Heavy Dark Matter in the Pierre Auger Observatory Data

Instantons, which are nonperturbative solutions to Yang-Mills equations, provide a signal for the occurrence of quantum tunneling between distinct classes of vacua. They can give rise to decays of particles otherwise forbidden. Using data collected at the Pierre Auger Observatory, we search for signatures of such instanton-induced processes that would be suggestive of super-heavy particles decaying in the Galactic halo. These particles could have been produced during the post-inflationary epoch and match the relic abundance of dark matter inferred today. The nonobservation of the signatures searched for allows us to derive a bound on the reduced coupling constant of gauge interactions in the dark sector: α_{X}≲0.09, for 10^{9}≲M_{X}/GeV<10^{19}. Conversely, we obtain that, for instance, a reduced coupling constant α_{X}=0.09 excludes masses M_{X}≳3×10^{13}  GeV. In the context of dark matter production from gravitational interactions alone, we illustrate how these bounds are complementary to those obtained on the Hubble rate at the end of inflation from the nonobservation of tensor modes in the cosmological microwave background.

A, Barbano A, Barwick SW, Bastian B, Basu V, Baur S, Bay R, Beatty JJ, Becker KH, Becker Tjus J, Bellenghi C, BenZvi S, Berley D, Bernardini E, Besson DZ, Binder G, Bindig D, Blaufuss E, Blot S, Boddenberg M, Bontempo F, Borowka J, Böser S, Botner O, Böttcher J, Bourbeau E, Bradascio F, Braun J, Brinson B, Bron S, Brostean-Kaiser J, Browne S, Burgman A, Burley RT, Busse RS, Campana MA, Carnie-Bronca EG, Chen C, Chen Z, Chirkin D, Choi K, Clark BA, Clark K, Classen L, Coleman A, Collin GH, Conrad JM, Coppin P, Correa P, Cowen DF, Cross R, Dappen C, Dave P, De Clercq C, DeLaunay JJ, Delgado López D, Dembinski H, Deoskar K, Desai A, Desiati P, de Vries KD, de Wasseige G, de With M, DeYoung T, Diaz A, Díaz-Vélez JC, Dittmer M, Dujmovic H, Dunkman M, DuVernois MA, Dvorak E, Ehrhardt T, Eller P, Engel R, Erpenbeck H, Evans J, Evenson PA, Fan KL, Fazely AR, Fedynitch A, Feigl N, Fiedlschuster S, Fienberg AT, Filimonov K, Finley C, Fischer L, Fox D, Franckowiak A, Friedman E, Fritz A, Fürst P, Gaisser TK, Gallagher J, Ganster E, Garcia A, Garrappa S, Gerhardt L, Ghadimi A, Glaser C, Glauch T, Glüsenkamp T, Goldschmidt A, Gonzalez JG, Goswami S, Grant D, Grégoire T, Griswold S, Günther C, Gutjahr P, Haack C, Hallgren A, Halliday R, Halve L, Halzen F, Ha Minh M, Hanson K, Hardin J, Harnisch AA, Haungs A, Hebecker D, Helbing K, Henningsen F, Hettinger EC, Hickford S, Hignight J, Hill C, Hill GC, Hoffman KD, Hoffmann R, Hokanson-Fasig B, Hoshina K, Huang F, Huber M, Huber T, Hultqvist K, Hünnefeld M, Hussain R, Hymon K, In S, Iovine N, Ishihara A, Jansson M, Japaridze GS, Jeong M, Jin M, Jones BJP, Kang D, Kang W, Kang X, Kappes A, Kappesser D, Kardum L, Karg T, Karl M, Karle A, Katz U, Kauer M, Kellermann M, Kelley JL, Kheirandish A, Kin K, Kintscher T, Kiryluk J, Klein SR, Koirala R, Kolanoski H, Kontrimas T, Köpke L, Kopper C, Kopper S, Koskinen DJ, Koundal P, Kovacevich M, Kowalski M, Kozynets T, Kun E, Kurahashi N, Lad N, Lagunas Gualda C, Lanfranchi JL, Larson MJ, Lauber F, Lazar JP, Lee JW, Leonard K, Leszczyńska A, Li Y, Lincetto M, Liu QR, Liubarska M, Lohfink E, Lozano Mariscal CJ, Lu L, Lucarelli F, Ludwig A, Luszczak W, Lyu Y, Ma WY, Madsen J, Mahn KBM, Makino Y, Mancina S, Mariş IC, Martinez-Soler I, Maruyama R, Mase K, McElroy T, McNally F, Mead JV, Meagher K, Mechbal S, Medina A, Meier M, Meighen-Berger S, Micallef J, Mockler D, Montaruli T, Moore RW, Morse R, Moulai M, Naab R, Nagai R, Nahnhauer R, Naumann U, Necker J, Nguyen LV, Niederhausen H, Nisa MU, Nowicki SC, Nygren D, Obertacke Pollmann A, Oehler M, Oeyen B, Olivas A, O’Sullivan E, Pandya H, Pankova DV, Park N, Parker GK, Paudel EN, Paul L, Pérez de los Heros C, Peters L, Peterson J, Philippen S, Pieper S, Pittermann M, Pizzuto A, Plum M, Popovych Y, Porcelli A, Prado Rodriguez M, Price PB, Pries B, Przybylski GT, Raab C, Rack-Helleis J, Raissi A, Rameez M, Rawlins K, Rea IC, Rehman A, Reichherzer P, Reimann R, Renzi G, Resconi E, Reusch S, Rhode W, Richman M, Riedel B, Roberts EJ, Robertson S, Roellinghoff G, Rongen M, Rott C, Ruhe T, Ryckbosch D, Rysewyk Cantu D, Safa I, Saffer J, Sanchez Herrera SE, Sandrock A, Sandroos J, Santander M, Sarkar S, Sarkar S, Satalecka K, Schaufel M, Schieler H, Schindler S, Schmidt T, Schneider A, Schneider J, Schröder FG, Schumacher L, Schwefer G, Sclafani S, Seckel D, Seunarine S, Sharma A, Shefali S, Silva M, Skrzypek B, Smithers B, Snihur R, Soedingrekso J, Soldin D, Spannfellner C, Spiczak GM, Spiering C, Stachurska J, Stamatikos M, Stanev T, Stein R, Stettner J, Steuer A, Stezelberger T, Stokstad R, Stürwald T, Stuttard T, Sullivan GW, Taboada I, Ter-Antonyan S, Tilav S, Tischbein F, Tollefson K, Tönnis C, Toscano S, Tosi D, Trettin A, Tselengidou M, Tung CF, Turcati A, Turcotte R, Turley CF, Twagirayezu JP, Ty B, Unland Elorrieta MA, Valtonen-Mattila N, Vandenbroucke J, van Eijndhoven N, Vannerom D, van Santen J, Verpoest S, Walck C, Watson TB, Weaver C, Weigel P, Weindl A, Weiss MJ, Weldert J, Wendt C, Werthebach J, Weyrauch M, Whitehorn N, Wiebusch CH, Williams DR, Wolf M, Woschnagg K, Wrede G, Wulff J, Xu XW, Yanez JP, Yoshida S, Yu S, Yuan T, Zhang Z, Zhelnin P. Evidence for neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068

A supermassive black hole, obscured by cosmic dust, powers the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068. Neutrinos, which rarely interact with matter, could provide information on the galaxy’s active core. We searched for neutrino emission from astrophysical objects using data recorded with the IceCube neutrino detector between 2011 and 2020. The positions of 110 known gamma-ray sources were individually searched for neutrino detections above atmospheric and cosmic backgrounds. We found that NGC 1068 has an excess of 79 − 20 + 22 neutrinos at tera–electron volt energies, with a global significance of 4.2σ, which we interpret as associated with the active galaxy. The flux of high-energy neutrinos that we measured from NGC 1068 is more than an order of magnitude higher than the upper limit on emissions of tera–electron volt gamma rays from this source.

Search for Unstable Sterile Neutrinos with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory

We present a search for an unstable sterile neutrino by looking for a resonant signal in eight years of atmospheric ν_{μ} data collected from 2011 to 2019 at the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Both the (stable) three-neutrino and the 3+1 sterile neutrino models are disfavored relative to the unstable sterile neutrino model, though with p values of 2.8% and 0.81%, respectively, we do not observe evidence for 3+1 neutrinos with neutrino decay. The best-fit parameters for the sterile neutrino with decay model from this study are Δm_{41}^{2}=6.7_{-2.5}^{+3.9}  eV^{2}, sin^{2}2θ_{24}=0.33_{-0.17}^{+0.20}, and g^{2}=2.5π±1.5π, where g is the decay-mediating coupling. The preferred regions of the 3+1+decay model from short-baseline oscillation searches are excluded at 90% C.L.

Deep white matter hyperintensity is spatially correlated to MRI-visible perivascular spaces in cerebral small vessel disease on 7 Tesla MRI

BACKGROUND

The association between perivascular space (PVS) and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) has been unclear. Normal-appearing white matter (NAWM) around WMH is also found correlated with the development of focal WMH. This study aims to investigate the topological connections among PVS, deep WMH (dWMH) and NAWM around WMH using 7 Tesla (7T) MRI.

METHODS

Thirty-two patients with non-confluent WMHs and 16 subjects without WMHs were recruited from our department and clinic. We compared the PVS burden between patients with and without WMHs using a 5-point scale. Then, the dilatation and the number of PVS within a radius of 1 cm around each dWMH were compared with those of a reference site (without WMH) in the contralateral hemisphere. In this study, we define NAWM as an area within the radius of 1 cm around each dWMH. Furthermore, we assessed the spatial relationship between dWMH and PVS.

RESULTS

Higher PVS scores in the centrum semiovale were found in patients with >5 dWMHs (median 3) than subjects without dWMH (median 2, p = 0.014). We found there was a greater dilatation and a higher number of PVS in NAWM around dWMH than at the reference sites (p<0.001, p<0.001). In addition, 79.59% of the dWMHs were spatially connected with PVS.

CONCLUSION

dWMH, NAWM surrounding WMH and MRI-visible PVS are spatially correlated in the early stage of cerebral small vessel disease. Future study of WMH and NAWM should not overlook MRI-visible PVS.

[Analysis on the epidemic characteristics and genetic characteristics of varicella in Beijing from 2019 to 2021]

The reported incidence of varicella in Beijing from 2019 to 2021 were 63.8/100 000, 32.2/100 000 and 38.6/100 000, respectively. There were two VZV epidemics in Beijing each year, one peaked in May and the other in November. However, the first VZV epidemic almost disappeared in 2020. Among the cases involved in the varicella outbreaks in school, the proportion of the students with no history of vaccine immunization, 1 dose of immunization and 2 doses of immunization were 33.12%, 44.79% and 22.08%, respectively. The major body of VZV breakthrough cases was children aged 6-14 years (523/755, 69.27%). The proportion of moderate- or severe-rash were 55.32%, 39.06%, 29.96% in the three groups of cases with no immunization history, 1 dose of immunization and 2 doses of immunization, respectively (P<0.001). A total of 1 089 varicella samples were collected, and 837 (76.86%) were confirmed to be PCR-positive for VZV and were identified as VZV wild strains. 311 VZV strains were sequenced successfully, and 307 strains were clade 2 (98.72%), 1 clade 3 (0.32%) and 3 Clade 5 (0.96%). Compared with the representative strains, the nucleotide similarities of ORF22 fragments were between 99.4% and 100%, and amino acid similarities were between 99.4% and 100%.

Preferential reporting of significant p-values in radiology journal abstracts

AIM

To assess the prevalence of publication bias in the radiology literature, data-mining techniques were used to extract p-values in abstracts published in key radiology journals over the past 20 years.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A total of 34,699 abstracts published in Radiology, Investigative Radiology, European Radiology, American Journal of Roentgenology, and American Journal of Neuroradiology published between January 2000 and December 2019 were included in the analysis. Automated text mining using regular expressions was used to mine abstracts for p-values.

RESULTS

The text mining algorithm detected 43,489 p-values, the majority (82.4%) of which were reported as "significant", i.e., p<0.05. There has also been an increased propensity to report more p-values over time. The distribution of p-values showed a step change at the conventional significance threshold of 0.05. The odds ratio of a "significant" p-value being reported in the abstract compared to the full text was calculated to be 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.78-3.58; p<0.001). Taken together, these results provide strong evidence for selective reporting of significant p-values in abstracts.

CONCLUSION

Statistically significant p-values are preferentially reported in radiology journal abstracts.

[Heritability and genetic correlation of body mass index and coronary heart disease in Chinese adult twins]

Objective: To examine the heritability of body mass index (BMI) and coronary heart disease (CHD), and to explore whether genetic factors can explain their correlation. Methods: Participants were from 11 provinces/municipalities reqistered in the Chinese National Twin Registry (CNTR) from 2010 to 2018. Participants data were collected from face-to-face questionnaire survey. Bivariate structure equation model was used to estimate the heritability and the genetic correlation of BMI and CHD. Results: A total of 20 340 pairs of same-sex twins aged ≥25 years were included in this study. After adjusting for age and gender, the heritability of BMI and CHD was 0.52 (95%CI: 0.49-0.55) and 0.76 (95%CI: 0.69-0.81), respectively. Further, a genetic correlation was identified between BMI and CHD (r_A=0.10, 95%CI:0.02-0.17). Conclusion: In Chinese adult twin population, BMI and CHD are affected by genetic factors, and their correlation can be attributed to the common genetic basis.

Strong Constraints on Neutrino Nonstandard Interactions from TeV-Scale ν_{μ} Disappearance at IceCube

We report a search for nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI) using eight years of TeV-scale atmospheric muon neutrino data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By reconstructing incident energies and zenith angles for atmospheric neutrino events, this analysis presents unified confidence intervals for the NSI parameter ε_{μτ}. The best-fit value is consistent with no NSI at a p value of 25.2%. With a 90% confidence interval of -0.0041≤ε_{μτ}≤0.0031 along the real axis and similar strength in the complex plane, this result is the strongest constraint on any NSI parameter from any oscillation channel to date.

Experimental Demonstration of Efficient Harmonic Generation via Surface Plasma Compression with Lasers

The efficiency of high-order harmonic generation from a relativistic laser interacting with solid targets depends greatly on surface plasma distribution. The usual method of enhancing efficiency involves tuning the plasma scale length carefully by improving the laser contrast. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that efficient harmonics can be achieved directly by compressing large-scale surface plasma via the radiation pressure of a circularly polarized normally incident prepulse. The harmonic generation efficiency obtained by this method is comparable to that obtained with optimized plasma scale length by high-contrast lasers. Our scheme does not rely on high-contrast lasers and is robust and easy to implement. Thus, it may pave a way for the development of intense extreme ultraviolet sources and future applications with high repetition rates.