Imaging-based indices combining disease severity and time from disease onset to predict COVID-19 mortality: A cohort study

Background

COVID-19 prognostic factors include age, sex, comorbidities, laboratory and imaging findings, and time from symptom onset to seeking care.

Purpose

The study aim was to evaluate indices combining disease severity measures and time from disease onset to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED).

Materials and methods

All consecutive COVID-19 patients who underwent both computed tomography (CT) and chest X-ray (CXR) at ED presentation between 27/02/2020 and 13/03/2020 were included. CT visual score of disease extension and CXR Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score were collected. The CT- and CXR-based scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), and oxygen saturation levels (sO₂) were separately combined with time from symptom onset to ED presentation to obtain severity/time indices. Multivariable regression age- and sex-adjusted models without and with severity/time indices were compared. For CXR-RALE, the models were tested in a validation cohort.

Results

Of the 308 included patients, 55 (17.9%) died. In multivariable logistic age- and sex-adjusted models for death at 30 days, severity/time indices showed good discrimination ability, higher for imaging than for laboratory measures (AUC_CT = 0.92, AUC_CXR = 0.90, AUC_CRP = 0.88, AUC_sO2 = 0.88). AUC_CXR was lower in the validation cohort (0.79). The models including severity/time indices performed slightly better than models including measures of disease severity not combined with time and those including the Charlson Comorbidity Index, except for CRP-based models.

Conclusion

Time from symptom onset to ED admission is a strong prognostic factor and provides added value to the interpretation of imaging and laboratory findings at ED presentation.

Rehabilitation Interventions for Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome: A Systematic Review

Increasing numbers of individuals suffer from post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS), which manifests with persistent symptoms, the most prevalent being dyspnea, fatigue, and musculoskeletal, cognitive, and/or mental health impairments. This systematic review investigated the effectiveness of rehabilitation interventions for individuals with PACS. We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, CINHAL, Scopus, Prospero, and PEDro databases and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) up to November 2021. We screened 516 citations for eligibility, i.e., trials that included individuals with PACS exposed to exercise-based rehabilitation interventions. Five RCTs were included, accounting for 512 participants (aged 49.2–69.4 years, 65% males). Based on the revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (RoB 2.0), two RCTs had “low risk of bias”, and three were in the “some concerns” category. Three RCTs compared experimental rehabilitation interventions with no or minimal rehabilitation, while two compared two active rehabilitation interventions. Rehabilitation seemed to improve dyspnea, anxiety, and kinesiophobia. Results on pulmonary function were inconsistent, while improvements were detected in muscle strength, walking capacity, sit-to-stand performance, and quality of life. Pending further studies based on qualitatively sound designs, these first findings seem to advocate for rehabilitation interventions to lessen disability due to PACS.

Intravenous methylprednisolone pulses in hospitalised patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia, A double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Rationale

Pulse glucocorticoid therapy is used in hyperinflammation related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the efficacy and safety of pulse intravenous methylprednisolone in addition to standard treatment in COVID-19 pneumonia.

Methods

In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 304 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were randomised to receive 1 g of methylprednisolone intravenously for three consecutive days or placebo in addition to standard dexamethasone. The primary outcome was the duration of patient hospitalisation, calculated as the time interval between randomisation and hospital discharge without the need for supplementary oxygen. The key secondary outcomes were survival free from invasive ventilation with orotracheal intubation and overall survival.

Results

Overall, 112 (75.4%) out of 151 patients in the pulse methylprednisolone arm and 111 (75.2%) of 150 in the placebo arm were discharged from hospital without oxygen within 30 days from randomisation. Median time to discharge was similar in both groups (15 days, 95% CI 13.0–17.0 days and 16 days, 95% CI 13.8–18.2 days, respectively; hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% CI 0.71–1.20; p=0.528). No significant differences between pulse methylprednisolone and placebo arms were observed in terms of admission to intensive care unit with orotracheal intubation or death (20.0% versus 16.1%; HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.74–2.16; p=0.176) or overall mortality (10.0% versus 12.2%; HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.42–1.64; p=0.584). Serious adverse events occurred with similar frequency in the two groups.

Conclusions

Methylprenisolone pulse therapy added to dexamethasone was not of benefit in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

The quick and strong anti-inflammatory effect of pulse glucocorticoid therapy seems to be of no benefit in COVID-19 pneumoniahttps://bit.ly/3IkUmSn

Inflammatory burden and persistent CT lung abnormalities in COVID-19 patients

Inflammatory burden is associated with COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Residual computed tomography (CT) lung abnormalities have been reported after COVID-19. The aim was to evaluate the association between inflammatory burden during COVID-19 and residual lung CT abnormalities collected on follow-up CT scans performed 2–3 and 6–7 months after COVID-19, in severe COVID-19 pneumonia survivors. C-reactive protein (CRP) curves describing inflammatory burden during the clinical course were built, and CRP peaks, velocities of increase, and integrals were calculated. Other putative determinants were age, sex, mechanical ventilation, lowest PaO2/FiO2 ratio, D-dimer peak, and length of hospital stay (LOS). Of the 259 included patients (median age 65 years; 30.5% females), 202 (78%) and 100 (38.6%) had residual, predominantly non-fibrotic, abnormalities at 2–3 and 6–7 months, respectively. In age- and sex-adjusted models, best CRP predictors for residual abnormalities were CRP peak (odds ratio [OR] for one standard deviation [SD] increase = 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23–2.62) at 2–3 months and CRP integral (OR for one SD increase = 2.24; 95%CI = 1.53–3.28) at 6–7 months. Hence, inflammation is associated with short- and medium-term lung damage in COVID-19. Other severity measures, including mechanical ventilation and LOS, but not D-dimer, were mediators of the relationship between CRP and residual abnormalities.

Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines and waning of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 during predominant circulation of the delta variant in Italy: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 at different time after vaccination.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Italy, 27 December 2020 to 7 November 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

33 250 344 people aged ≥16 years who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine and did not have a previous diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 (admission to hospital or death). Data were divided by weekly time intervals after vaccination. Incidence rate ratios at different time intervals were estimated by multilevel negative binomial models with robust variance estimator. Sex, age group, brand of vaccine, priority risk category, and regional weekly incidence in the general population were included as covariates. Geographic region was included as a random effect. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-IRR)×100, where IRR=incidence rate ratio, with the time interval 0-14 days after the first dose of vaccine as the reference.

RESULTS

During the epidemic phase when the delta variant was the predominant strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly decreased (P<0.001) from 82% (95% confidence interval 80% to 84%) at 3-4 weeks after the second dose of vaccine to 33% (27% to 39%) at 27-30 weeks after the second dose. In the same time intervals, vaccine effectiveness against severe covid-19 also decreased (P<0.001), although to a lesser extent, from 96% (95% to 97%) to 80% (76% to 83%). High risk people (vaccine effectiveness -6%, -28% to 12%), those aged ≥80 years (11%, -15% to 31%), and those aged 60-79 years (2%, -11% to 14%) did not seem to be protected against infection at 27-30 weeks after the second dose of vaccine.

CONCLUSIONS

The results support the vaccination campaigns targeting high risk people, those aged ≥60 years, and healthcare workers to receive a booster dose of vaccine six months after the primary vaccination cycle. The results also suggest that timing the booster dose earlier than six months after the primary vaccination cycle and extending the offer of the booster dose to the wider eligible population might be warranted.

Clinical features and comorbidity pattern of HCV infected migrants compared to native patients in care in Italy: A real-life evaluation of the PITER cohort

BACKGROUND

Direct-acting antivirals are highly effective for the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, regardless race/ethnicity. We aimed to evaluate demographic, virological and clinical data of HCV-infected migrants vs. natives consecutively enrolled in the PITER cohort.

METHODS

Migrants were defined by country of birth and nationality that was different from Italy. Mann-Whitney U test, Chi-squared test and multiple logistic regression were used.

RESULTS

Of 10,669 enrolled patients, 301 (2.8%) were migrants: median age 47 vs. 62 years, (p < 0.001), females 56.5% vs. 45.3%, (p < 0.001), HBsAg positivity 3.8% vs. 1.4%, (p < 0.05). Genotype 1b was prevalent in both groups, whereas genotype 4 was more prevalent in migrants (p < 0.05). Liver disease severity and sustained virologic response (SVR) were similar. A higher prevalence of comorbidities was reported for natives compared to migrants (p < 0.05). Liver disease progression cofactors (HBsAg, HIV coinfection, alcohol abuse, potential metabolic syndrome) were present in 39.1% and 47.1% (p > 0.05) of migrants and natives who eradicated HCV, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Compared to natives, HCV-infected migrants in care have different demographics, HCV genotypes, viral coinfections and comorbidities and similar disease severity, SVR and cofactors for disease progression after HCV eradication. A periodic clinical assessment after HCV eradication in Italians and migrants with cofactors for disease progression is warranted.

Effect of High-Titer Convalescent Plasma on Progression to Severe Respiratory Failure or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE

Convalescent plasma (CP) has been generally unsuccessful in preventing worsening of respiratory failure or death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy of CP plus standard therapy (ST) vs ST alone in preventing worsening respiratory failure or death in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective, open-label, randomized clinical trial enrolled (1:1 ratio) hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia to receive CP plus ST or ST alone between July 15 and December 8, 2020, at 27 clinical sites in Italy. Hospitalized adults with COVID-19 pneumonia and a partial pressure of oxygen-to-fraction of inspired oxygen (Pao2/Fio2) ratio between 350 and 200 mm Hg were eligible.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients in the experimental group received intravenous high-titer CP (≥1:160, by microneutralization test) plus ST. The volume of infused CP was 200 mL given from 1 to a maximum of 3 infusions. Patients in the control group received ST, represented by remdesivir, glucocorticoids, and low-molecular weight heparin, according to the Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco recommendations.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was a composite of worsening respiratory failure (Pao2/Fio2 ratio <150 mm Hg) or death within 30 days from randomization.

RESULTS

Of the 487 randomized patients (241 to CP plus ST; 246 to ST alone), 312 (64.1%) were men; the median (IQR) age was 64 (54.0-74.0) years. The modified intention-to-treat population included 473 patients. The primary end point occurred in 59 of 231 patients (25.5%) treated with CP and ST and in 67 of 239 patients (28.0%) who received ST (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.59-1.33; P = .54). Adverse events occurred more frequently in the CP group (12 of 241 [5.0%]) compared with the control group (4 of 246 [1.6%]; P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia, high-titer anti-SARS-CoV-2 CP did not reduce the progression to severe respiratory failure or death within 30 days.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04716556.

Large-Scale Postmarketing Surveillance of Biological Drugs for Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases Through an Italian Distributed Multi-Database Healthcare Network: The VALORE Project

BACKGROUND

Biological drugs have improved the management of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) despite being associated with important safety issues such as immunogenicity, infections, and malignancies in real-world settings.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a large Italian multi-database distributed network for use in the postmarketing surveillance of biological drugs, including biosimilars, in patients with IMID.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using 13 Italian regional claims databases during 2010-2019. A tailor-made R-based tool developed for distributed analysis of claims data using a study-specific common data model was customized for this study. We measured the yearly prevalence of biological drug users and the frequency of switches between originator and biosimilars for infliximab, etanercept, and adalimumab separately and stratified them by calendar year and region. We then calculated the cumulative number of users and person-years (PYs) of exposure to individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs. For a number of safety outcomes (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-COV-2] infection), we conducted a sample power calculation to estimate the PYs of exposure required to investigate their association with individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, considering different strengths of association.

RESULTS

From a total underlying population of almost 50 million inhabitants from 13 Italian regions, we identified 143,602 (0.3%) biological drug users, with a cumulative exposure of 507,745 PYs during the entire follow-up. The mean age ± standard deviation of biological drug users was 49.3 ± 16.3, with a female-to-male ratio of 1.2. The age-adjusted yearly prevalence of biological drug users increased threefold from 0.7 per 1000 in 2010 to 2.1 per 1000 in 2019. Overall, we identified 40,996 users of biosimilars of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors (i.e., etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab) in the years 2015-2019. Of these, 46% (N = 18,845) switched at any time between originator and biosimilars or vice versa. To investigate a moderate association (incidence rate ratio 2) between biological drugs approved for IMIDs and safety events of interest, such as optic neuritis (lowest background incidence rate 10.4/100,000 PYs) or severe infection (highest background incidence rate 4312/100,000 PYs), a total of 43,311 PYs and 104 PYs of exposure to individual biological drugs, respectively, would be required. As such, using this network, of 15 individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, the association with those adverse events could be investigated for four (27%) and 14 (93%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The VALORE project multi-database network has access to data on more than 140,000 biological drug users (and > 0.5 million PYs) from 13 Italian regions during the years 2010-2019, which will be further expanded with the inclusion of data from other regions and more recent calendar years. Overall, the cumulated amount of person-time of exposure to biological drugs approved for IMIDs provides enough statistical power to investigate weak/moderate associations of almost all individual compounds and the most relevant safety outcomes. Moreover, this network may offer the opportunity to investigate the interchangeability of originator and biosimilars of several TNFα inhibitors in different therapeutic areas in real-world settings.

Patients with HIV and cirrhosis: the risk for hepatocellular carcinoma after direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus

OBJECTIVES

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has become a major issue in coinfected HIV/HCV patients with liver cirrhosis. We aimed to determine the rate of HCC occurrence after a direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment and to evaluate the factors associated with the risk of HCC in this population.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective multicenter observational study including cirrhotic HIV/HCV-coinfected patients treated with DAAs, between October 2014 and January 2017.

METHODS

We collected demographics characteristics, data regarding HIV and HCV infections and treatment with DAAs. We investigated the rate and the time of occurrence of HCC. Statistical analysis explored the factors associated to development of liver cancer.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 55 months, 24 out of 232 patients developed HCC, after a median of 22.5 months from starting DAAs. Factors associated with HCC were a higher Child--Pugh Turcotte (CPT) score (P = 0.002), HCV genotype 3 (P = 0.04), previous HCC (P < 0.001) and CD4+ cell count nadir greater than 350 cells/μl (P = 0.001), whereas antiretroviral therapy (ART) was associated to a lower rate of cancer (P = 0.02). At multivariable analysis CPT score and a history of HCC remained independently associated with HCC after DAAs (P = 0.003 and P < 0.001, respectively), and ART administration maintained its protective role (P = 0.047), regardless of HIV RNA at baseline.

CONCLUSION

Our study highlights the importance of a long-lasting follow-up for HCC after HCV eradication, mostly in those patients with advanced cirrhosis and history of HCC. Furthermore, our data showed a potential role of ART itself (and not of undetectable HIV RNA) in reducing the risk for HCC development.

Forces and Specific Energy of Polyamide Grinding

This work investigated the grinding process of reinforced and nonreinforced polyamide materials using an Al₂O₃ grinding wheel. Samples were ground using a custom-made setup of sensors to evaluate in-line temperature, forces, and power. The surface roughness and images were acquired to assess the quality of the final products. The novelty of the work is to correlate the energy evaluation with the process efficiency during processing. Grinding at high cutting depths achieves good surface quality indicators, such as R_a < 5 μm and R_z < 5 μm. Results also reveal that special attention should be given to the infeed speed when cutting unfilled materials to produce good results. With high values of energy partition, the specific grinding energy stabilizes around 60 J/mm³. Strains must be applied quickly because, to ensure the unfilled materials respond better at this cutting depth, the reinforced materials suffer a slight degradation of quality.

Association of Influenza Vaccination and Prognosis in Patients Testing Positive to SARS-CoV-2 Swab Test: A Large-Scale Italian Multi-Database Cohort Study

To investigate the association of the 2019-2020 influenza vaccine with prognosis of patients positive for SARS-CoV-2A, a large multi-database cohort study was conducted in four Italian regions (i.e., Lazio, Lombardy, Veneto, and Tuscany) and the Reggio Emilia province (Emilia-Romagna). More than 21 million adults were residing in the study area (42% of the population). We included 115,945 COVID-19 cases diagnosed during the first wave of the pandemic (February-May, 2020); 34.6% of these had been vaccinated against influenza. Three outcomes were considered: hospitalization, death, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission/death. The adjusted relative risk (RR) of being hospitalized in the vaccinated group when compared with the non-vaccinated group was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.86-0.88). This reduction in risk was not confirmed for death (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), or for the combined outcome of ICU admission or death. In conclusion, our study, conducted on the vast majority of the population during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy, showed a 13% statistically significant reduction in the risk of hospitalization in some geographical areas and in the younger population. No impact of seasonal influenza vaccination on COVID-19 prognosis in terms of death and death or ICU admission was estimated.

Feasibility and efficiency of European guidelines for NAFLD assessment in patients with type 2 diabetes: A prospective study

AIM

We aimed to evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of a guidelines-compliant NAFLD assessment algorithm in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D).

METHODS

Consecutive patients aged < 75 newly diagnosed with T2D without coexisting liver disease or excessive alcohol consumption were enrolled. Patients were stratified based on liver enzymes, fatty liver index, ultrasound, fibrosis scores and liver stiffness measurement. Referral rates and positive predictive values (PPVs) for histological non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and significant fibrosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 171 enrolled patients (age 59 ± 10.2 years, 42.1% females), 115 (67.3%) were referred to a hepatologist due to abnormal liver enzymes (n = 60) or steatosis plus indeterminate (n = 37) or high NAFLD fibrosis score (n = 18). Liver biopsy was proposed to 30 patients (17.5%), but only 14 accepted, resulting in 12 NASH, one with significant fibrosis. The PPV of hepatological referral was 12/76 (15.8%) for NASH and 1/76 (1.3%) for NASH with significant fibrosis. The PPV of liver biopsy referral was 12/14 (85.7%) for NASH and 1/14 (7.1%) for NASH with significant fibrosis.

CONCLUSIONS

By applying a guidelines-compliant algorithm, many patients with T2D were referred for hepatological assessment and liver biopsy. Further studies are necessary to refine non-invasive algorithms.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent hospital admission and death at different time intervals since first dose of COVID-19 vaccine administration, Italy, 27 December 2020 to mid-April 2021

To assess the real-world impact of vaccines on COVID-19 related outcomes, we analysed data from over 7 million recipients of at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in Italy. Taking 0–14 days post-first dose as reference, the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk subsequently decreased, reaching a reduction by 78% (incidence rate ratios (IRR): 0.22; 95% CI: 0.21–0.24) 43–49 days post-first dose. Similarly, hospitalisation and death risks decreased, with 89% (IRR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.09–0.15) and 93% (IRR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.04–0.11) reductions 36–42 days post-first dose. Our results support ongoing vaccination campaigns.

The impact of chest CT body composition parameters on clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients

We assessed the impact of chest CT body composition parameters on outcomes and disease severity at hospital presentation of COVID-19 patients, focusing also on the possible mediation of body composition in the relationship between age and death in these patients. Chest CT scans performed at hospital presentation by consecutive COVID-19 patients (02/27/2020-03/13/2020) were retrospectively reviewed to obtain pectoralis muscle density and total, visceral, and intermuscular adipose tissue areas (TAT, VAT, IMAT) at the level of T7-T8 vertebrae. Primary outcomes were: hospitalization, mechanical ventilation (MV) and/or death, death alone. Secondary outcomes were: C-reactive protein (CRP), oxygen saturation (SO2), CT disease extension at hospital presentation. The mediation of body composition in the effect of age on death was explored. Of the 318 patients included in the study (median age 65.7 years, females 37.7%), 205 (64.5%) were hospitalized, 68 (21.4%) needed MV, and 58 (18.2%) died. Increased muscle density was a protective factor while increased TAT, VAT, and IMAT were risk factors for hospitalization and MV/death. All these parameters except TAT had borderline effects on death alone. All parameters were associated with SO2 and extension of lung parenchymal involvement at CT; VAT was associated with CRP. Approximately 3% of the effect of age on death was mediated by decreased muscle density. In conclusion, low muscle quality and ectopic fat accumulation were associated with COVID-19 outcomes, VAT was associated with baseline inflammation. Low muscle quality partly mediated the effect of age on mortality.

The value of computed tomography in assessing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency room

Objective

The aims of this study were to develop a multiparametric prognostic model for death in COVID-19 patients and to assess the incremental value of CT disease extension over clinical parameters.

Methods

Consecutive patients who presented to all five of the emergency rooms of the Reggio Emilia province between February 27 and March 23, 2020, for suspected COVID-19, underwent chest CT, and had a positive swab within 10 days were included in this retrospective study. Age, sex, comorbidities, days from symptom onset, and laboratory data were retrieved from institutional information systems. CT disease extension was visually graded as < 20%, 20–39%, 40–59%, or ≥ 60%. The association between clinical and CT variables with death was estimated with univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models; model performance was assessed using k-fold cross-validation for the area under the ROC curve (cvAUC).

Results

Of the 866 included patients (median age 59.8, women 39.2%), 93 (10.74%) died. Clinical variables significantly associated with death in multivariable model were age, male sex, HDL cholesterol, dementia, heart failure, vascular diseases, time from symptom onset, neutrophils, LDH, and oxygen saturation level. CT disease extension was also independently associated with death (HR = 7.56, 95% CI = 3.49; 16.38 for ≥ 60% extension). cvAUCs were 0.927 (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% CI = 0.899–0.947) for the clinical model and 0.936 (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% CI = 0.912–0.953) when adding CT extension.

Conclusions

A prognostic model based on clinical variables is highly accurate in predicting death in COVID-19 patients. Adding CT disease extension to the model scarcely improves its accuracy.

Key Points

• Early identification of COVID-19 patients at higher risk of disease progression and death is crucial; the role of CT scan in defining prognosis is unclear.

• A clinical model based on age, sex, comorbidities, days from symptom onset, and laboratory results was highly accurate in predicting death in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency room.

• Disease extension assessed with CT was independently associated with death when added to the model but did not produce a valuable increase in accuracy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00330-021-07993-9.

Liver function following hepatitis C virus eradication by direct acting antivirals in patients with liver cirrhosis: data from the PITER cohort

BACKGROUND

The development of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) for HCV has revolutionized the treatment of HCV, including its treatment in patients with HIV coinfection. The aim of this study was to compare the changes in liver function between coinfected and monoinfected patients with cirrhosis who achieved HCV eradication by DAA.

METHODS

Patients with pre-treatment diagnosis of HCV liver cirrhosis, consecutively enrolled in the multicenter PITER cohort, who achieved a sustained virological response 12 weeks after treatment cessation (SVR12) were analysed. Changes in Child-Pugh (C-P) class and the occurrence of a decompensating event was prospectively evaluated after the end of DAA treatment. Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate factors independently associated with changes in liver function following viral eradication.

RESULTS

We evaluated 1350 patients, of whom 1242 HCV monoinfected (median follow-up 24.7, range 6.8-47.5 months after viral eradication) and 108 (8%) HCV/HIV coinfected (median follow-up 27.1, range 6.0-44.6). After adjusting for age, sex, HCV-genotype, HBsAg positivity and alcohol use, HIV was independently associated with a more advanced liver disease before treatment (C-P class B/C vs A) (OR: 3.73, 95% CI:2.00-6.98). Following HCV eradication, C-P class improved in 17/20 (85%) coinfected patients (from B to A and from C to B) and in 53/82 (64.6%) monoinfected patients (from B to A) (p = 0.08). C-P class worsened in 3/56 coinfected (5.3%) (from A to B) and in 84/1024 (8.2%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.45) (from A to B or C and from B to C). Baseline factors independently associated with C-P class worsening were male sex (HR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.18-3.36), platelet count < 100,000/μl (HR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.08-2.85) and increased INR (HR = 2.41; 95% CI 1.51-3.84). Following viral eradication, in 7 of 15 coinfected (46.6%) and in 61 of 133 (45.8%) monoinfected patients with previous history of decompensation, a new decompensating event occurred. A first decompensating event was recorded in 4 of 93 (4.3%) coinfected and in 53 of 1109 (4.8%) monoinfected patients (p = 0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement of liver function was observed following HCV eradication in the majority of patients with cirrhosis; however viral eradication did not always mean cure of liver disease in both monoinfected and coinfected patients with advanced liver disease.

Impact of Prior Antibiotic Use in Primary Care on Escherichia coli Resistance to Third Generation Cephalosporins: A Case-Control Study

Research is lacking on the reversibility of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Thus, we aimed to determine the influence of previous antibiotic use on the development and decay over time of third generation cephalosporin (3GC)-resistance of E. coli. Using the database of hospital laboratories of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen (Italy), anonymously linked to the database of outpatient pharmaceutical prescriptions and the hospital discharge record database, this matched case-control study was conducted including as cases all those who have had a positive culture from any site for 3GC resistant E. coli (3GCREC) during a 2016 hospital stay. Data were analyzed by conditional logistic regression. 244 cases were matched to 1553 controls by the date of the first isolate. Male sex (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.10–2.01), older age (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.21), the number of different antibiotics taken in the previous five years (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.08–1.33), at least one antibiotic prescription in the previous year (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.36–2.71), and the diagnosis of diabetes (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.08–2.30) were independent risk factors for 3GCREC colonization/infection. Patients who last received an antibiotic prescription two years or three to five years before hospitalization showed non-significant differences with controls (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.68–1.38 and OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.59–1.24), compared to an OR of 1.92 (95% CI 1.36–2.71) in those receiving antibiotics in the year preceding hospitalization. The effect of previous antibiotic use on 3GC-resistance of E. coli is highest after greater cumulative exposure to any antibiotic as well as to 3GCs and in the first 12 months after antibiotics are taken and then decreases progressively.

Risk of COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality in rheumatic patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or other conventional DMARDs in Italy

Objectives

To ascertain if hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)/chloroquine (CLQ) and other conventional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (cDMARDs) use, and rheumatic diseases per se, may be associated with COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and mortality.

Methods

This case-control study nested within a cohort of cDMARD users was conducted in the Lombardy, Veneto, Tuscany and Lazio regions and Reggio Emilia province. Claims databases were linked to COVID-19 surveillance registries. Risk of COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated using a multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis, comparing HCQ/CLQ vs methotrexate, vs other cDMARDs and vs non-use of these drugs. Presence of rheumatic diseases vs their absence in a non-nested population was investigated.

Results

1275 cases hospitalized due to COVID-19 were matched to 12 734 controls. Compared with recent use of methotrexate, no association between HCQ/CLQ monotherapy and COVID-19 hospitalization (OR 0.83 [95%CI, 0.69–1.00]) or mortality (OR 1.19 [95%CI, 0.85–1.67]) was observed. A lower risk was found when comparing HCQ/CLQ use to the concomitant use of other cDMARDs and glucocorticoids. HCQ/CLQ was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization as compared with non-use. An increased risk for recent use of either methotrexate monotherapy (OR 1.19 [95% CI, 1.05–1.34]) or other cDMARDs (OR 1.21 [95% CI, 1.08–1.36]) vs non-use was found. Rheumatic diseases were not associated with COVID-19-related outcomes.

Conclusion

HCQ/CLQ use in rheumatic patients was not associated with a protective effect against COVID-19-related outcomes. Use of other cDMARDs was associated with an increased risk when compared with non-use, and, if concomitantly used with glucocorticoids, also vs HCQ/CLQ, probably to be ascribed to immunosuppressive action.

Development and validation of a prediction model for tocilizumab failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

The aim of this secondary analysis of the TESEO cohort is to identify, early in the course of treatment with tocilizumab, factors associated with the risk of progressing to mechanical ventilation and death and develop a risk score to estimate the risk of this outcome according to patients' profile.

METHODS

Patients with COVID-19 severe pneumonia receiving standard of care + tocilizumab who were alive and free from mechanical ventilation at day 6 after treatment initiation were included in this retrospective, multicenter cohort study. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify predictors of mechanical ventilation or death by day-28 from treatment initiation and β-coefficients were used to develop a risk score. Secondary outcome was mortality. Patients with the same inclusion criteria as the derivation cohort from 3 independent hospitals were used as validation cohort.

RESULTS

266 patients treated with tocilizumab were included. By day 28 of hospital follow-up post treatment initiation, 40 (15%) underwent mechanical ventilation or died [26 (10%)]. At multivariable analysis, sex, day-4 PaO2/FiO2 ratio, platelets and CRP were independently associated with the risk of developing the study outcomes and were used to generate the proposed risk score. The accuracy of the score in AUC was 0.80 and 0.70 in internal validation and test for the composite endpoint and 0.92 and 0.69 for death, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our score could assist clinicians in identifying, early after tocilizumab administration, patients who are likely to progress to mechanical ventilation or death, so that they could be selected for eventual rescue therapies.