"My future is bright…I won't die with the cause of AIDS": ten-year patient ART outcomes and experiences in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

South Africa is moving into a new era of HIV treatment with "treat all" policies where people may be on treatment for most of their lives. We need to understand treatment outcomes and facilitators of long-term antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence and retention-in-care in the South African context. In one of the first studies to investigate long-term treatment outcomes in South Africa, we aimed to describe ten-year patient outcomes at a large public-sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg and explore patient experiences of the treatment programme over this time in order to ascertain factors that may aid or hinder long-term adherence and retention.

METHODS

We conducted a cohort analysis (n = 6644) and in-depth interviews (n = 24) among HIV-positive adults initiating first-line ART between April 2004 and March 2007. Using clinical records, we ascertained twelve-month and ten-year all-cause mortality and loss to follow-up (LTF). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to identify baseline predictors of attrition (mortality and LTF (>3 months late for the last scheduled visit)) at twelve months and ten years. Twenty-four patients were purposively selected and interviewed to explore treatment programme experiences over ten years on ART.

RESULTS

Excluding transfers, 79.5% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 78.5 to 80.5) of the cohort were alive, in care at twelve months dropping to 35.1% (95% CI: 33.7 to 36.4) at ten years. Over 44% of deaths occurred within 12 months. Ten-year all-cause mortality increased, while LTF decreased slightly, with age. Year and age at ART initiation, sex, nationality, baseline CD4 count, anaemia, body mass index and initiating regimen were predictors of ten-year attrition. Among patients interviewed, the pretreatment clinic environment, feelings of gratitude and good fortune, support networks, and self-efficacy were facilitators of care; side effects, travel and worsening clinical conditions were barriers. Participants were generally optimistic about their futures and were committed to continued care.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the complexities of long-term chronic HIV treatment with declining all-cause mortality and increasing LTF over ten years. Barriers to long-term retention still present a significant challenge. As more people become eligible for ART in South Africa under "treatment for all," new healthcare delivery challenges will arise; interventions are needed to ensure long-term programme successes continue.

Implementation of Option B and a fixed-dose combination antiretroviral regimen for prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in South Africa: A model of uptake and adherence to care

INTRODUCTION

Initiating and retaining pregnant women on antiretroviral therapy (ART) to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) remains a major challenge facing African HIV programs, particularly during the critical final months prior to delivery. In 2013, South Africa implemented its "Option B" PMTCT regimen (three-drug ART throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, regardless of maternal CD4 count) and introduced once-daily fixed-dose combinations and lifelong ART. Currently, the uptake of Option B and its possible impact on adherence to PMTCT during the critical final months of pregnancy is unclear.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We prospectively collected visit data from a cohort of adult, HIV-infected, pregnant women between July 2013-August 2014 to estimate three models of adherence to PMTCT during the final 16 weeks immediately preceding delivery. Adherence was defined according to possession of antiretroviral drugs, which was inferred from clinic visit records under varying assumptions in each model. We describe uptake of the PMTCT regimen, gestational age at initiation, and model possible scenarios of adherence through delivery after the implementation of Option B.

RESULTS

Among 138 women enrolled (median (IQR) age 28 years (24-32), median CD4 count 378 cells/mm3), median (IQR) gestational age at initiation was 22 weeks (16-26). Estimates of adherence during the final 16 weeks of pregnancy prior to delivery ranged from 75% (52-89%) under the best case scenario assumptions to 52% (30-75%) under the worst case scenario assumptions. Estimates of the proportion of women who would achieve 80% adherence to PMTCT were <50% across all models.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the switch to Option B and once-daily dosing, South African women continue to initiate PMTCT late in pregnancy, and estimations of regimen adherence, as modelled using PMTCT visit attendance data, is poor, with <50% of women reaching 80% adherence during final months of pregnancy across all models. Further guideline changes and interventions are needed to achieve vertical transmission goals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01710397 South African National Clinical Trials Register DOH-27-0213-4177.

Correction: Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for patient transfers: A national laboratory cohort study in South Africa

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002589.].

Estimating retention in HIV care accounting for patient transfers: A national laboratory cohort study in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Systematic reviews have described high rates of attrition in patients with HIV receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, migration and clinical transfer may lead to an overestimation of attrition (death and loss to follow-up). Using a newly linked national laboratory database in South Africa, we assessed national retention in South Africa's national HIV program.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Patients receiving care in South Africa's national HIV program are monitored through regular CD4 count and viral load testing. South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service has maintained a database of all public-sector CD4 count and viral load results since 2004. We linked individual laboratory results to patients using probabilistic matching techniques, creating a national HIV cohort. Validation of our approach in comparison to a manually matched dataset showed 9.0% undermatching and 9.5% overmatching. We analyzed data on patients initiating ART in the public sector from April 1, 2004, to December 31, 2006, when ART initiation could be determined based on first viral load among those whose treatment followed guidelines. Attrition occurred on the date of a patient's last observed laboratory measure, allowing patients to exit and reenter care prior to that date. All patients had 6 potential years of follow-up, with an additional 2 years to have a final laboratory measurement to be retained at 6 years. Data were censored at December 31, 2012. We assessed (a) national retention including all laboratory tests regardless of testing facility and (b) initiating facility retention, where laboratory tests at other facilities were ignored. We followed 55,836 patients initiating ART between 2004 and 2006. At ART initiation, median age was 36 years (IQR: 30-43), median CD4 count was 150 cells/mm3 (IQR: 81-230), and 66.7% were female. Six-year initiating clinic retention was 29.1% (95% CI: 28.7%-29.5%). After allowing for transfers, national 6-year retention was 63.3% (95% CI: 62.9%-63.7%). Results differed little when tightening or relaxing matching procedures. We found strong differences in retention by province, ranging from 74.2% (95% CI: 73.2%-75.2%) in Western Cape to 52.2% (95% CI: 50.6%-53.7%) in Mpumalanga at 6 years. National attrition was higher among patients initiating at lower CD4 counts and higher viral loads, and among patients initiating ART at larger facilities. The study's main limitation is lack of perfect cohort matching, which may lead to over- or underestimation of retention. We also did not have data from KwaZulu-Natal province prior to 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, HIV care retention was substantially higher when viewed from a national perspective than from a facility perspective. Our results suggest that traditional clinical cohorts underestimate retention.

Regimen durability in HIV-infected children and adolescents initiating first-line antiretroviral therapy in a large public sector HIV cohort in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

In April 2010, tenofovir and abacavir replaced stavudine in public sector first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for children under 20 years old in South Africa. The association of both abacavir and tenofovir with fewer side effects and toxicities compared to stavudine could translate to increased durability of tenofovir or abacavir-based regimens. We evaluated changes over time in regimen durability for paediatric patients 3-19 years of age at eight public sector clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.

METHODS

Cohort analysis of treatment-naïve, non-pregnant paediatric patients from 3 to 19 years old initiated on ART between April 2004 and December 2013. First-line ART regimens before April 2010 consisted of stavudine or zidovudine with lamivudine and either efavirenz or nevirapine. Tenofovir and/or abacavir was substituted for stavudine after April 2010 in first-line ART. We evaluated the frequency and type of single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions and switches to second-line therapy. Fine and Gray competing risk regression models were used to evaluate the association of antiretroviral drug type with single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions and second-line switches in the first 24 months on treatment.

RESULTS

Three hundred and ninety-eight (15.3%) single-drug substitutions, 187 (7.2%) treatment interruptions and 86 (3.3%) switches to second-line therapy occurred among 2602 paediatric patients over 24-months on ART. Overall, the rate of single-drug substitutions started to increase in 2009, peaked in 2011 at 25% and then declined to 10% in 2013, well after the integration of tenofovir into paediatric regimens; no patients over the age of 3 were initiated on abacavir for first-line therapy. Competing risk regression models showed patients on zidovudine or stavudine had upwards of a fivefold increase in single-drug substitution vs. patients initiated on tenofovir in the first 24 months on ART. Older adolescents also had a two- to threefold increase in treatment interruptions and switches to second-line therapy compared to younger patients in the first 24 months on ART.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in single-drug substitutions is associated with the introduction of tenofovir. Tenofovir use could improve regimen durability and treatment outcomes in resource-limited settings.

Persistent High Burden of Advanced HIV Disease Among Patients Seeking Care in South Africa's National HIV Program: Data From a Nationwide Laboratory Cohort

Background

The South African national HIV program has increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage over the last decade, supported by policy changes allowing for earlier ART initiation. However, many patients still enter care with advanced (<200 cells/μL) and very advanced (<100 cells/μL) HIV disease. We assessed disease progression at entry to care using nationwide laboratory data.

Methods

We constructed a national HIV cohort using laboratory records containing HIV RNA loads and CD4 counts from 2004 to 2016 to determine entry into care. We estimated numbers and proportions of adults with the first CD4 count <100 cells/ μL or 100-199 cells/μL. We calculated relative risks of presenting with advanced disease associated with male sex.

Results

8.04 million first CD4 results were identified. From 2005 to 2011, the proportion of patients entering into care with CD4 count <200 cells/μL declined from 46.8% to 35.6%. From 2011 onward, the proportion of patients entering ART with advanced HIV disease has remained relatively unchanged. In 2016, we estimated that of 654 868 patients entering care, 32.9% had advanced HIV disease, and 16.8% had very advanced HIV disease. Men were almost twice as likely as women (23.1% vs 12.6% ) to enter care with very advanced HIV disease.

Conclusions

The proportion of patients presenting with advanced HIV disease in South Africa remains consistently high despite ART scale-up, representing a large and avoidable burden of morbidity. Early HIV diagnosis, rapid linkage to ART and approaches to attract men into early ART initiation should be prioritized.

Markers of poor adherence among adults with HIV attending Themba Lethu HIV Clinic, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

To date, there is no consensus on ideal ways to measure antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in resource limited settings. This study aimed to identify markers of poor adherence to ART.

Methods

Retrospective data of HIV-positive ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART at Themba Lethu Clinic, Helen Joseph Hospital, Johannesburg, South Africa from April 2004 to December 2011 were analysed. Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to assessed the following potential markers of poor adherence ‘last self-reported adherence, missed clinic visits, mean corpuscular volume (MCV), CD4 count against definition of adherence, suppressed HIV viral load using traditional test metrics’.

Results

A total of 11 724 patients were eligible; 1712 (14.6%) had unsuppressed viral load within 6 months after initiating ART. The main marker of poor adherence was a combination of change in CD4 count and MCV; change in CD4 ≥expected and change in MCV <14.5 fL (RR 2.82, 95% CI 2.16–3.67), change in CD4 <expected and change in MCV <14.5 fL (RR 5.49, 95% CI 4.13–7.30) compared to change in CD4 ≥expected and change in MCV ≥14.5 fL.

Conclusions

A combination of less than expected increase in CD4 and MCV at 6 months after treatment initation was found to be a marker of poor adherence. This could help identify and monitor poor treatment adherence in the absence of viral load testing.

Incident tuberculosis in HIV-positive children, adolescents and adults on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between age and incident tuberculosis (TB) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in South Africa.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort analysis among HIV-infected patients initiating ART between April 2004 and April 2012. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used with modified Poisson regression clustered by treatment site as a function of sex, age, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, CD4 count, hemoglobin levels and year of ART initiation. Cumulative incidence functions stratified by age and controlling for death as a competing risk were used to graphically display incident TB.

RESULTS

Although non-significant, GEE models showed that patients aged <1 year had a 40% increase in risk of TB compared to those aged 30-39.9 years. Results also showed that male patients, those with low CD4, those with low hemoglobin and those who initiated ART before 2010 were at increased risk of TB.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that patients aged <1 year, males, patients with low CD4 and those with low hemoglobin at ART initiation are at increased risk of incident TB in the first 24 months of ART. Given the known transmission risk factors for children living in households with a TB contact, reducing TB incidence in HIV-positive adults could substantially impact the risk of TB in young children.

The right combination - treatment outcomes among HIV-positive patients initiating first-line fixed-dose antiretroviral therapy in a public sector HIV clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa

Background

Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence is critical for achieving optimal HIV treatment outcomes. Fixed-dose combination (FDC) single-pill regimens, introduced in South Africa in April 2013, has simplified pill taking. We evaluated treatment outcomes among patients initiated on a FDC compared to a similar multi-pill ART regimen in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of ART-naïve HIV-positive non-pregnant adult (≥18 years) patients without tuberculosis who initiated first-line ART on tenofovir and emtricitabine or lamivudine with efavirenz at Themba Lethu Clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. We compared those initiated on a multi-pill ART regimen (3–5 pills/day; September 1, 2011–August 31, 2012) to those initiated on a FDC ART regimen (one pill/day; September 1, 2013–August 31, 2014). Treatment outcomes included attrition (combination of lost to follow-up and mortality), missed medical visits, and virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/mL) by 12 months post-ART initiation. Cox proportional hazards models and Poisson regression were used to estimate the association between FDCs vs multiple pills and treatment outcomes.

Results

We included 3151 patients in our analysis; 2230 (70.8%) patients initiated multi-pill ART and 921 (29.2%) patients initiated on a FDC. By 12 months post-initiation, attrition (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.77–1.24) was similar across regimen types (FDC vs multi-pill). Although not significant, patients on a FDC were marginally more likely to achieve viral suppression by 6 (adjusted relative rate [aRR]: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.99–1.23) and 12 months (aRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.92–1.36) on ART. Patients initiated on a FDC were significantly less likely to miss medical visits during the first 12 months of treatment (aRR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.52–0.83).

Conclusion

Our results suggest FDCs may have a role to play in supporting patient adherence and medical monitoring through improved medical visit attendance. This may potentially improve treatment outcomes later on in treatment.

Acceptability and feasibility of a financial incentive intervention to improve retention in HIV care among pregnant women in Johannesburg, South Africa

Women initiating antiretroviral therapy during pregnancy are at high risk of dropping out of HIV care after delivery. We assessed the acceptability and feasibility of a financial incentive - a one-time R50 (∼USD4) supermarket voucher for completing one postpartum visit ≤10 weeks of delivery - to improve postpartum retention. We enrolled 100 pregnant, HIV-positive women at a primary health clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. Participants were interviewed at enrollment and we reviewed files to assess retention ≥14 weeks postpartum. Median (IQR) respondent age was 28 years (24-31) and 31% were employed. Most (86%) said the incentive would motivate them to return and 76% supported clinics offering incentives. Among the 23% who found the intervention unacceptable, the most frequent reason was perceived personal responsibility for health. Feasibility was demonstrated, as 79.7% (51/64) of eligible participants received a voucher. When asked to rank preferred hypothetical incentive interventions, assistance with social services ranked first (29%), followed by infant formula (22%) and cash (21%); assistance with social services was the top-ranked choice by both those who found the voucher incentive intervention acceptable and unacceptable. To encourage HIV-positive women to remain in care, respondents most frequently suggested health education (34%), counseling (29%), financial incentives (25%), home visits (13%), and better service (6%). Our results suggest financial incentives are acceptable, but women frequently expressed preference for integrated services and improved education and counseling to improve retention. Interventions exploring the feasibility and efficacy of education and counseling interventions to improve postpartum HIV care are warranted.

Cervical cancer risk and impact of Pap-based screening in HIV-positive women on antiretroviral therapy in Johannesburg, South Africa

Data on invasive cervical cancer (ICC) incidence in HIV-positive women and the effect of cervical cancer screening in sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. We estimated i) ICC incidence rates in women (≥18 years) who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the Themba Lethu Clinic (TLC) in Johannesburg, South Africa, between 2004 and 2011 and ii) the effect of a Pap-based screening program. We included 10,640 women; median age at ART initiation: 35 years [interquartile range (IQR) 30-42], median CD4 count at ART initiation: 113 cells/µL (IQR 46-184). During 27,257 person-years (pys), 138 women were diagnosed with ICC; overall incidence rate: 506/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI) 428-598]. The ICC incidence rate was highest (615/100,000 pys) in women who initiated ART before cervical cancer screening became available in 04/2005 and was lowest (260/100,000 pys) in women who initiated ART from 01/2009 onward when the cervical cancer screening program and access to treatment of cervical lesions was expanded [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.42, 95% CI 0.20-0.87]. Advanced HIV/AIDS stage (4 versus 1, aHR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.24) and middle age at ART initiation (36-45 versus 18-25 years, aHR 2.51, 95% CI 1.07-5.88) were risk factors for ICC. The ICC incidence rate substantially decreased with the implementation of a Pap-based screening program and improved access to treatment of cervical lesions. However, the risk of developing ICC after ART initiation remained high. To inform and improve ICC prevention and care for HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa, implementation and monitoring of cervical cancer screening programs are essential.

Cohort profile: the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort, South Africa

PURPOSE

The research objectives of the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort analyses are to: (1) monitor treatment outcomes (including death, loss to follow-up, viral suppression and CD4 count gain among others) for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART); (2) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around when to initiate ART on HIV treatment outcomes; (3) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around what ART regimens to initiate on drug switches; (4) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment delivery models; (5) evaluate the need for and outcomes on second-line and third-line ART; (6) evaluate the impact of comorbidity with non-communicable diseases on HIV treatment outcomes and (7) evaluate the impact of the switch to initiating all patients onto ART regardless of CD4 count.

PARTICIPANTS

The Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort is an open cohort of data from 10 clinics in two provinces within South Africa. All clinics include data from 2004 onwards. The cohort currently has data on over 115 000 patients initiated on HIV treatment and patients are followed up every 3-6 months for clinical and laboratory monitoring.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Cohort data includes information on demographics, clinical visit, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. The data have been used to identify rates and predictors of first-line failure, to identify predictors of mortality for patients on second-line (eg, low CD4 counts) and to show that adolescents and young adults are at increased risk of unsuppressed viral loads compared with adults.

FUTURE PLANS

Future analyses will inform national models of HIV care and treatment to improve HIV care policy in South Africa.

Simplified clinical algorithm for identifying patients eligible for immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy for HIV (SLATE): protocol for a randomised evaluation

INTRODUCTION

African countries are rapidly adopting guidelines to offer antiretroviral therapy (ART) to all HIV-infected individuals, regardless of CD4 count. For this policy of 'treat all' to succeed, millions of new patients must be initiated on ART as efficiently as possible. Studies have documented high losses of treatment-eligible patients from care before they receive their first dose of antiretrovirals (ARVs), due in part to a cumbersome, resource-intensive process for treatment initiation, requiring multiple clinic visits over a several-week period.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The Simplified Algorithm for Treatment Eligibility (SLATE) study is an individually randomised evaluation of a simplified clinical algorithm for clinicians to reliably determine a patient's eligibility for immediate ART initiation without waiting for laboratory results or additional clinic visits. SLATE will enrol and randomise (1:1) 960 adult, HIV-positive patients who present for HIV testing or care and are not yet on ART in South Africa and Kenya. Patients randomised to the standard arm will receive routine, standard of care ART initiation from clinic staff. Patients randomised to the intervention arm will be administered a symptom report, medical history, brief physical exam and readiness assessment. Patients who have positive (satisfactory) results for all four components of SLATE will be dispensed ARVs immediately, at the same clinic visit. Patients who have any negative results will be referred for further clinical investigation, counselling, tests or other services prior to being dispensed ARVs. After the initial visit, follow-up will be by passive medical record review. The primary outcomes will be ART initiation ≤28 days and retention in care 8 months after study enrolment.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been provided by the Boston University Institutional Review Board, the University of the Witwatersrand Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical) and the KEMRI Scientific and Ethics Review Unit. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and made widely available through presentations and briefing documents.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT02891135.

Predicting the Need for Third-Line Antiretroviral Therapy by Identifying Patients at High Risk for Failing Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

Although third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) is available in South Africa's public sector, its cost is substantially higher than first and second line. Identifying risk factors for failure on second-line treatment remains crucial to reduce the need for third-line drugs. We conducted a case-control study including 194 adult patients (≥18 years; 70 cases and 124 controls) who initiated second-line ART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Unconditional logistic regression was used to assess predictors of virologic failure (defined as 2 consecutive viral load measures ≥1000 copies/mL, ≥3 months after switching to second line). Variables included a social instability index, ART adherence, self-reported as well as diagnosed adverse drug reactions (ADRs), HIV disclosure, depression, and factors affecting access to HIV clinics. Overall 60.0% of cases and 54.0% of controls were female. Mean ages of cases and controls were 41.8 ± 9.6 and 43.3 ± 8.0, respectively. Virologic failure was predicted by ART adherence <90% [odds ratio (OR) 4.7; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 2.1-10.5], younger age (<40 years of age; OR 0.6; 95% CI: 0.3-1.1), high social instability (OR 3.8; 95% CI: 1.30-11.5), self-reported ADR (OR 1.9; 95% CI: 1.0-3.5), disclosure to friends/colleagues rather than partner/relatives (OR 3.4; 95% CI: 1.3-9.1), and medium/high depression compared to low/no depression (OR 4.4; 95% CI: 1.5-13.4). Our results suggest complex socioeconomic factors contributing to risk of virologic failure, possibly by impacting ART adherence, among patients on second-line therapy in South Africa. Identifying patients with possible indicators of nonadherence could facilitate targeted interventions to reduce the risk of second-line treatment failure and mitigate the demand for third-line regimens.

Changes in elevated cholesterol in the era of tenofovir in South Africa: risk factors, clinical management and outcomes

OBJECTIVES

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with unfavourable lipid profile changes and increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). With a growing population on ART in South Africa, there has been concern about the increase in noncommunicable diseases such as CVD. We determined risk factors associated with increased total cholesterol (TC) in a large cohort on ART and describe the clinical management thereof.

METHODS

We conducted an observational cohort study of ART-naïve adults initiating standard first-line ART in a large urban clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. TC was measured annually for most patients. A proportional hazards regression model was used to determine risk factors associated with incident high TC (≥ 6 mmol/L).

RESULTS

Significant risk factors included initial regimen non-tenofovir vs. tenofovir [hazard ratio (HR) 1.54; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-2.08], age ≥40 vs. <30 years (HR 3.22; 95% CI 2.07-4.99), body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m² (HR 1.65; 95% CI 1.18-2.31) and BMI 25-29.9 kg/m² (HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.23) vs. 18-24.9 kg/m² , and baseline CD4 count < 50 cells/μL (HR 1.55; 95% CI 1.10-2.20) and 50-99 cells/μL (HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.00-1.97) vs. > 200 cells/μL. Two-thirds of patients with high TC were given cholesterol-lowering drugs, after repeat TC measurements about 12 months apart, while 31.8% were likely to have received dietary counselling only.

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, higher BMI, lower CD4 count and a non-tenofovir regimen were risk factors for incident elevated TC. Current guidelines do not indicate regular cholesterol testing at ART clinic visits, which are the main exposure to regular clinical monitoring for most HIV-positive individuals. If regular cholesterol monitoring is conducted, improvements can be made to identify and treat patients sooner.

Citizenship status and engagement in HIV care: an observational cohort study to assess the association between reporting a national ID number and retention in public-sector HIV care in Johannesburg, South Africa

OBJECTIVE

In many resource-limited settings, people from rural areas migrate to urban hubs in search of work. Thus, urban public-sector HIV clinics in South Africa (SA) often cater to both local residents and patients from other provinces and/or countries. The objective of this analysis was to compare programmatic treatment outcomes by citizenship status in an urban clinic in SA.

SETTING

An urban public-sector HIV treatment facility in Johannesburg, SA.

PARTICIPANTS

We included all antiretroviral therapy (ART)-naïve, non-pregnant patients who initiated standard first-line treatment from January 2008 to December 2013. 12 219 patients were included and 59.5% were women.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Patients were followed from ART initiation until death, transfer, loss to follow-up (LTF), or data set closure. We describe attrition (mortality and LTF) stratified by SA citizenship status (confirmed SA citizens (with national ID number), unconfirmed SA citizens (no ID), and foreign nationals) and model the risk of attrition using Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

70% of included patients were confirmed SA citizens, 19% were unconfirmed SA citizens, and 11% were foreign nationals. Unconfirmed SA citizens were far more likely to die or become LTF than other patients. A similar proportion of foreign nationals (18.2%) and confirmed SA citizens (17.7%) had left care at 1 year compared with 47.0% of unconfirmed SA citizens (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) unconfirmed SA vs confirmed SA: 2.68; 95% CI 2.42 to 2.97). By the end of follow-up, 75.5% of unconfirmed SA citizens had left care, approximately twice that of any other group.

CONCLUSIONS

Unconfirmed SA citizens were more likely to drop out of care after ART initiation than other patients. Further research is needed to determine whether this observed attrition is representative of migration and/or self-transfer to another HIV clinic as such high rates of attrition pose challenges for the success of the national ART programme.

Imputing HIV treatment start dates from routine laboratory data in South Africa: a validation study

BACKGROUND

Poor clinical record keeping hinders health systems monitoring and patient care in many low resource settings. We develop and validate a novel method to impute dates of antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation from routine laboratory data in South Africa's public sector HIV program. This method will enable monitoring of the national ART program using real-time laboratory data, avoiding the error potential of chart review.

METHODS

We developed an algorithm to impute ART start dates based on the date of a patient's "ART workup", i.e. the laboratory tests used to determine treatment readiness in national guidelines, and the time from ART workup to initiation based on clinical protocols (21 days). To validate the algorithm, we analyzed data from two large clinical HIV cohorts: Hlabisa HIV Treatment and Care Programme in rural KwaZulu-Natal; and Right to Care Cohort in urban Gauteng. Both cohorts contain known ART initiation dates and laboratory results imported directly from the National Health Laboratory Service. We assessed median time from ART workup to ART initiation and calculated sensitivity (SE), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of our imputed start date vs. the true start date within a 6 month window. Heterogeneity was assessed across individual clinics and over time.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from over 80,000 HIV-positive adults. Among patients who had a workup and initiated ART, median time to initiation was 16 days (IQR 7,31) in Hlabisa and 21 (IQR 8,43) in RTC cohort. Among patients with known ART start dates, SE of the imputed start date was 83% in Hlabisa and 88% in RTC, indicating this method accurately predicts ART start dates for about 85% of all ART initiators. In Hlabisa, PPV was 95%, indicating that for patients with a lab workup, true start dates were predicted with high accuracy. SP (100%) and NPV (92%) were also very high.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine laboratory data can be used to infer ART initiation dates in South Africa's public sector. Where care is provided based on protocols, laboratory data can be used to monitor health systems performance and improve accuracy and completeness of clinical records.

Tenofovir stock shortages have limited impact on clinic- and patient-level HIV treatment outcomes in public sector clinics in South Africa

OBJECTIVE

Using data from four public sector clinics in South Africa, we sought to investigate provider- and patient-level outcomes, to understand how the 2012 tenofovir stock shortage affected the HIV care and monitoring of ART patients.

METHODS

Prospective cohort analysis of ART-naïve, non-pregnant, HIV-infected patients >18 years initiating first-line ART between 1 July 2011-31 March 2013. Linear regression was used for all outcomes (number of ART initiates, days between pharmacy visits, transfers, single-drug substitutions, treatment interruptions, missed pharmacy visits, loss to follow-up and elevated viral load). We fit splines to smooth curves with knots at the beginning (1 February 2012) and end (31 August 2012) of the stock shortage and displayed results graphically by clinic. Difference-in-difference models were used to evaluate the effect of the stock shortage on outcomes.

RESULTS

Results suggest a potential shift in the management of patients during the shortage, mainly fewer average days between visits during the shortage vs. before or after at all four clinics, and a significant difference in the proportion of patients missing visits during vs. before (RD: 1.2%; 95% CI: 0.5%, 2.0%). No significant difference was seen in other outcomes.

CONCLUSION

While South Africa has made great strides to extend access to ART and increase the quality of the health services provided, patient care can be affected when stock shortages/outs occur. While our results show little effect on treatment outcomes, this most likely reflects the clinics' ability to mitigate the crisis by continuing to keep patient care and treatment as consistent as possible.

Marginal Structural Models to Assess Delays in Second-Line HIV Treatment Initiation in South Africa

Background

South African HIV treatment guidelines call for patients who fail first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) to be switched to second-line ART, yet logistical issues, clinician decisions and patient preferences make delay in switching to second-line likely. We explore the impact of delaying second-line ART after first-line treatment failure on rates of death and virologic failure.

Methods

We include patients with documented virologic failure on first-line ART from an observational cohort of 9 South African clinics. We explored predictors of delayed second-line switch and used marginal structural models to analyze rates of death following first-line failure by categorical time to switch to second-line. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine virologic failure on second-line ART among patients who switched to second-line.

Results

5895 patients failed first-line ART, and 63% switched to second-line. Among patients who switched, median time to switch was 3.4 months (IQR: 1.1–8.7 months). Longer time to switch was associated with higher CD4 counts, lower viral loads and more missed visits prior to first-line failure. Worse outcomes were associated with delay in second-line switch among patients with a peak CD4 count on first-line treatment ≤100 cells/mm³. Among these patients, marginal structural models showed increased risk of death (adjusted HR for switch in 6–12 months vs. 0–1.5 months = 1.47 (95% CI: 0.94–2.29), and Cox models showed increased rates of second-line virologic failure despite the presence of survivor bias (adjusted HR for switch in 3–6 months vs. 0–1.5 months = 2.13 (95% CI: 1.01–4.47)).

Conclusions

Even small delays in switch to second-line ART were associated with increased death and second-line failure among patients with low CD4 counts on first-line. There is opportunity for healthcare providers to switch patients to second-line more quickly.

Correction: Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV at a Patient's First Clinic Visit: The RapIT Randomized Controlled Trial

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002015.].

Age in antiretroviral therapy programmes in South Africa: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) expands, increasing numbers of older patients will start treatment and need specialised long-term care. However, the effect of age in ART programmes in resource-constrained settings is poorly understood. The HIV epidemic is ageing rapidly and South Africa has one of the highest HIV population prevalences worldwide. We explored the effect of age on mortality of patients on ART in South Africa and whether this effect is mediated by baseline immunological status.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort analysis, we studied HIV-positive patients aged 16-80 years who started ART for the first time in six large South African cohorts of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa collaboration, in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and Western Cape (two primary care clinics, three hospitals, and a large rural cohort). The primary outcome was mortality. We ascertained patients' vital status through linkage to the National Population Register. We used inverse probability weighting to correct mortality for loss to follow-up. We estimated mortality using Cox's proportional hazards and competing risks regression. We tested the interaction between baseline CD4 cell count and age.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2004, and Dec 31, 2013, 84,078 eligible adults started ART. Of these, we followed up 83,566 patients for 174,640 patient-years. 8% (1817 of 23,258) of patients aged 16-29 years died compared with 19% (93 of 492) of patients aged 65 years or older. The age adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (95% CI 2·01-3·17) for people aged 65 years or older compared with those 16-29 years of age. In patients starting ART with a CD4 count of less than 50 cells per μL, the adjusted mortality hazard ratio was 2·52 (2·04-3·11) for people aged 50 years or older compared with those 16-39 years old. Mortality was highest in patients with CD4 counts of less than 50 cells per μL, and 15% (1103 of 7295) of all patients aged 50 years or older starting ART were in this group. The proportion of patients aged 50 years or older enrolling in ART increased with successive years, from 6% (290 of 4999) in 2004 to 10% (961 of 9657) in 2012-13, comprising 9% of total enrolment (7295 of 83 566). At the end of the study, 6304 (14%) of 44,909 patients still alive and in care were aged 50 years or older.

INTERPRETATION

Health services need reorientation towards HIV diagnosis and starting of ART in older individuals. Policies are needed for long-term care of older people with HIV.

FUNDING

National Institutes of Health (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases), US Agency for International Development, and South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis.

Effect of pregnancy and the postpartum period on adherence to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected women established on treatment

: Among women who become pregnant after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), few data describe the effect of pregnancy and postpartum on adherence. We conducted a retrospective clinical cohort study among therapy-naive women (age, 18-45 years) initiating HAART in Johannesburg, South Africa. Among 7510 women in our analysis, 896 experienced a pregnancy after starting HAART. Compared with nonpregnant periods of follow-up, there was an increased risk of nonadherence during the postpartum period (weighted risk ratio: 1.46, 95% confidence interval: 1.17 to 1.82) but not during pregnancy itself (weighted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 1.17).

Attrition through multiple stages of pre-treatment and ART HIV care in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

While momentum for increasing treatment thresholds is growing, if patients cannot be retained in HIV care from the time of testing positive through long-term adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), such strategies may fall short of expected gains. While estimates of retention on ART exist, few cohorts have data on retention from testing positive through long-term ART care.

METHODS

We explored attrition (loss or death) at the Themba Lethu HIV clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa in 3 distinct cohorts enrolled at HIV testing, pre-ART initiation, and ART initiation.

RESULTS

Between March 2010 and August 2012 we enrolled 380 patients testing HIV+, 206 initiating pre-ART care, and 185 initiating ART. Of the 380 patients enrolled at testing HIV-positive, 38.7% (95%CI: 33.9-43.7%) returned for eligibility staging within ≤3 months of testing. Of the 206 enrolled at pre-ART care, 84.5% (95%CI: 79.0-88.9%) were ART eligible at their first CD4 count. Of those, 87.9% (95%CI: 82.4-92.2%) initiated ART within 6 months. Among patients not ART eligible at their first CD4 count, 50.0% (95%CI: 33.1-66.9%) repeated their CD4 count within one year of the first ineligible CD4. Among the 185 patients in the ART cohort, 22 transferred out and were excluded from further analysis. Of the remaining 163, 81.0% (95%CI: 74.4-86.5%) were retained in care through two years on treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings from a well-resourced clinic demonstrate continual loss from all stages of HIV care and strategies to reduce attrition from all stages of care are urgently needed.