Abstract 5891: The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer

Importance: Pancreatic cancer presents as advanced disease in >80% of patients; yet, appropriate ages to consider prevention and early detection strategies are poorly defined.

Objective: To investigate age-specific associations and attributable risks of pancreatic cancer for established modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors.

Design, Setting, and Participants: We included 167,483 participants from 2 prospective U.S. cohort studies with 1190 incident cases of pancreatic cancer identified during >30 years of follow-up; 5107 pancreatic cancer cases and 8845 control participants of European ancestry from a completed multicenter genome-wide association study (GWAS); and 248,893 pancreatic cancer cases documented in the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program.

Exposures: Across different age categories, we investigated cigarette smoking, obesity, diabetes, height, and non-O blood group in the prospective cohorts; weighted polygenic risk score of 22 previously identified single nucleotide polymorphisms in the GWAS; and male sex and Black race in the SEER program.

Main outcomes and measures: Risk of developing pancreatic cancer by age evaluated by Cox, logistic, or Poisson regression, as determined by the study design.

Results: In the prospective cohorts, all 5 risk factors were more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger participants, with associations greatly attenuated among those over 70 years. The HRs comparing participants with 3-5 risk factors to those with no risk factors were 9.24 (95% CI, 4.11-20.77) among those aged ≤60 years, 3.00 (95% CI, 1.85-4.86) among those aged 61-70 years, and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.10-1.94) among those over 70 years (Pheterogeneity = 3×10-5). These factors together were related to 65.6%, 49.7%, and 17.2% of incident pancreatic cancers in these age groups, respectively. In the GWAS, the polygenic risk score was most strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among those aged ≤60 years, with lesser associations identified in older participants (Pheterogeneity = .01). In the SEER Program, male sex and Black race were also more strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk among younger individuals (Pheterogeneity < 1×10-8).

Conclusions and relevance: Inherited and lifestyle factors are more strongly associated with earlier-onset pancreatic cancer, emphasizing the importance of age at initiation for cancer prevention and control programs targeting this highly lethal malignancy.

Citation Format: Chen Yuan, Jihye Kim, Qiao-Li Wang, Alice A. Lee, Ana Babic, PanScan/PanC4 I-III Consortium, Laufey T. Amundadottir, Alison P. Klein, Donghui Li, Marjorie L. McCullough, Gloria M. Petersen, Harvey A. Risch, Rachael Z. Stolzenberg-Solomon, Kimberly Perez, Kimmie Ng, Edward L. Giovannucci, Meir J. Stampfer, Peter Kraft, Brian M. Wolpin. The age-dependent association of risk factors with pancreatic cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5891.

Abstract 5934: Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study

Background: Weight loss is a common symptom in patients with cancer. However, little is known about how much weight loss and over what time period weight loss precedes cancer diagnosis. Herein, we evaluate the association between weight loss and subsequent 2-year cancer diagnosis using repeatedly measured weight data in two large prospective cohorts.

Methods: The analysis included 111,891 US women from the Nurses’ Health Study and 45,498 US men from the Health Professional Follow-up Study, who were enrolled in 1978 and 1988, respectively, and followed through 2012, and who were cancer-free and ≥40 years old at study entry. Current weight and lifestyle information were assessed every 2 years by questionnaire, and weight change in the previous 2 years was calculated by comparing two consecutive questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for subsequent risk of cancer diagnosis according to weight change percentage. We also examined 20-year trajectories of body mass index (BMI) before cancer diagnosis.

Results: During 4.1 million person-years of follow-up, we documented 30,441 incident cancers. Participants with recent weight loss were at increased risk for cancer diagnosis in the subsequent 2 years (Ptrend <0.0001). Compared with participants without weight loss, those who had a weight loss of 5-10% or >10% had a multivariable-adjusted HR for total cancer of 1.09 (95% CI, 1.04-1.13) and 1.17 (95% CI, 1.10-1.24), respectively. For individual cancer types, increased weight loss was associated with a subsequent cancer diagnosis of esophagus, liver, pancreas, leukemia, stomach, myeloma, lung, colorectal, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (all Ptrend <0.005). Comparing participants with weight loss of >10% to those without weight loss, multivariable-adjusted HRs were 4.22 (95% CI, 2.50-7.13) for esophageal cancer, 3.30 (95% CI, 1.65-6.61) for liver cancer, 2.46 (95% CI, 1.84-3.30) for pancreatic cancer, 2.40 (95% CI, 1.59-3.61) for leukemia, 2.26 (95% CI, 1.32-3.87) for stomach cancer, 1.80 (95% CI, 1.14-2.83) for myeloma, 1.45 (95% CI, 1.22-1.73) for lung cancer, 1.38 (95% CI, 1.14-1.66) for colorectal cancer, and 1.35 (95% CI, 1.06-1.72) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The 20-year trajectory of BMI indicated that most weight loss occurred in the 2 years before cancer diagnosis, with the magnitude of weight loss increasing closer to the time of subsequent cancer diagnosis.

Conclusion: Recent weight loss of >10% predicts elevated risk of cancer diagnosis in the forthcoming 2 years, particularly for cancers of the upper gastrointestinal tract, hematological system, colorectum, and lung.

Citation Format: Qiao-Li Wang, Ana Babic, Michael H. Rosenthal, Alice A. Lee, Yin Zhang, Xuehong Zhang, Mingyang Song, Leandro F. Rezende, Dong Hoon Lee, Leah Biller, Kimmie Ng, Andrew T. Chan, Meir J. Stampfer, Edward L. Giovannucci, Peter Kraft, Chen Yuan, Brian M. Wolpin. Weight loss and subsequent cancer diagnosis: A prospective cohort study [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 5934.

Properties of Daily Helium Fluxes

We present the precision measurement of 2824 daily helium fluxes in cosmic rays from May 20, 2011 to October 29, 2019 in the rigidity interval from 1.71 to 100 GV based on 7.6×10^{8} helium nuclei collected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) aboard the International Space Station. The helium flux and the helium to proton flux ratio exhibit variations on multiple timescales. In nearly all the time intervals from 2014 to 2018, we observed recurrent helium flux variations with a period of 27 days. Shorter periods of 9 days and 13.5 days are observed in 2016. The strength of all three periodicities changes with time and rigidity. In the entire time period, we found that below ∼7  GV the helium flux exhibits larger time variations than the proton flux, and above ∼7  GV the helium to proton flux ratio is time independent. Remarkably, below 2.4 GV a hysteresis between the helium to proton flux ratio and the helium flux was observed at greater than the 7σ level. This shows that at low rigidity the modulation of the helium to proton flux ratio is different before and after the solar maximum in 2014.

Sugar-sweetened beverage and sugar consumption and colorectal cancer incidence and mortality according to anatomic subsite

BACKGROUND

Recent preclinical research strongly suggests that dietary sugars can enhance colorectal tumorigenesis by direct action, particularly in the proximal colon that unabsorbed fructose reaches.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to examine long-term consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) and total fructose in relation to incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) by anatomic subsite.

METHODS

We followed 121,111 participants from 2 prospective US cohort studies, the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2014) and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014), for incident CRC and related death. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compute HRs and 95% CIs.

RESULTS

During follow-up, we documented 2733 incident cases of CRC with a known anatomic location, of whom 901 died from CRC. Positive associations of SSB and total fructose intakes with cancer incidence and mortality were observed in the proximal colon but not in the distal colon or rectum (Pheterogeneity ≤ 0.03). SSB consumption was associated with a statistically significant increase in the incidence of proximal colon cancer (HR per 1-serving/d increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.34; Ptrend = 0.02) and a more pronounced elevation in the mortality of proximal colon cancer (HR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.72; Ptrend = 0.002). Similarly, total fructose intake was associated with increased incidence and mortality of proximal colon cancer (HRs per 25-g/d increment: 1.18; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.35; and 1.42; 95% CI: 1.12, 1.79, respectively). Moreover, SSB and total fructose intakes during the most recent 10 y, rather than those from a more distant period, were associated with increased incidence of proximal colon cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

SSB and total fructose consumption were associated with increased incidence and mortality of proximal colon cancer, particularly during later stages of tumorigenesis.

[Study on parameters of robot-assisted ultrasonic drilling on bovine vertebral body]

Objective: To investigate the effect of ultrasonic parameter settings on maximum temperatures in the drilling site and penetration time and determine the most suitable parameters for efficient and safe robot-based ultrasonic bone drilling in spinal surgery. Methods: Five adult bovine thoracic and lumbar vertebrae specimens (T10-L6) were cut into 10 mm thick slices. A total of 50 slices were obtained. Among them, 30 and 20 slices were used for cancellous bone experiments and cortical bone experiments, respectively. In the cancellous bone experiment, the slices were randomly divided into three groups, corresponding to different feed rates of 0.8 mm/s, 1.6 mm/s, and 2.4 mm/s, respectively, with 10 slices in each group. The cancellous part of each slice was drilled 9 times with different output powers from 20% (48 W) to 100% (120 W). In the cortical bone experiment, the slices were randomly assigned into two groups, corresponding to a different feed rate (0.8 mm/s and 1.6 mm/s). Drilling was performed on the cortical part of each slice 4 times with different output power, which increased from 70% (84W) to 100% (120 W). All experiments were conducted at room temperature of 25 ℃. Maximum temperature and penetration time were recorded. The maximum grinding temperature and penetration time of cancellous bone and cortical bone under different output power and feed rate were compared. Results: At the same feed rate, the maximum temperature of the cancellous bone decreased as output power increased. There were statistically significant differences in the maximum temperature between the output powers of 120 W and 24 W under different feed rates(61.2 ℃±9.4 ℃ vs 70.9 ℃±5.7 ℃, 59.2 ℃±7.1 ℃ vs 69.5 ℃±10.7 ℃, 55.5 ℃±5.5 ℃ vs 69.2 ℃±9.3 ℃, all P<0.05). At the premise of the same output power, there was no significant difference in the maximum temperature among different feed rates (all P>0.05). At the feed rate of 0.8 mm/s, the maximum temperature of cortical bone decreased as the output power increased. The maximum temperature at the output power of 120 W was significantly lower than that of 84 W (P=0.048). However, at the feed rate of 1.6 mm/s, the maximum temperature could not be significantly lowered by the increase in output power (P>0.05). Under the same output power, the maximum temperature at the feed rate of 1.6 mm/s were all significantly lower than those of 0.8 mm/s (all P<0.05). The penetration time of cancellous bone did not decrease significantly with the increase in the output power (all P>0.05) while it decreased significantly as the feed rate increased (all P<0.05). Regarding cortical bone at the feed rate of 0.8 mm/s, the increase in output power could not shorten the penetration time (P>0.05); at the feed rate of 1.6 mm/s, the penetration time at the output power of 120 W was significantly shorter than that of 96 W (P=0.008). With the same output power, the penetration time at the feed rate of 1.6 mm/s were significantly shorter than those at 0.8 mm/s (all P<0.05). There was no statistical difference in the penetration failure rate among different feed rates with the same output power (all P>0.05). The penetration failure rate was 0 when the output power of cancellous bone was 48 W and above and the output power of cortical bone were 108 W and 120 W. Conclusions: The maximum temperature of vertebral cancellous bone and the cortical bone is primarily influenced by the output power and the feed rate, respectively; the penetration time of cancellous bone and the cortical bone is affected by the feed rate and both of feed rate and output power, respectively. The most suitable parameters are output power of 120 W and feed rate of 2.4 mm/s for cancellous bone and output power of 120 W and feed rate of 1.6 mm/s for cortical bone.

Longitudinal trajectories of lifetime body shape and prostate cancer angiogenesis

Angiogenesis potentially underlies the pathway between excess adiposity and prostate carcinogenesis. This study examined the association between lifetime body shape trajectories and prostate cancer angiogenesis. 521 prostate cancer patients who underwent prostatectomy or transurethral resection between 1986 and 2000 were enrolled from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Cancers were immunostained and quantitated for cancer vessel regularity, diameter, area, and density, and composite angiogenesis (factor analysis). To identify distinct groups of body shape change, we conducted group-based trajectory modeling. We used multivariable linear regression to estimate the percentage difference in angiogenesis score and 95% confidence interval (CI) between body shape change trajectories during lifetime (age 5-60 years), early life (age 5-30 years), or later life (age 30-60 years). Compared to men with lifetime lean or medium body shape, higher angiogenesis scores were observed in men with moderate increase [percentage difference of 35% (95% CI 5-64)], marked increase [24% (95% CI - 2 to 51)], and constantly heavy with mild increase body shape [38% (95% CI 8-69)]. However, a lower angiogenesis score was noted in men with early-life marked increase (- 22%, 95% CI - 44 to 0) and stable medium body shape (- 14%, 95% CI - 40 to 12), compared to moderate increase body shape. Increased angiogenesis was also found for absolute weight gain from age 21-60 years. Lifetime body fatness accumulation, especially after age 21, was associated with increased prostate cancer angiogenesis, while weight gain in early-life adulthood was associated with lower cancer angiogenesis.

Periodicities in the Daily Proton Fluxes from 2011 to 2019 Measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station from 1 to 100 GV

We present the precision measurement of the daily proton fluxes in cosmic rays from May 20, 2011 to October 29, 2019 (a total of 2824 days or 114 Bartels rotations) in the rigidity interval from 1 to 100 GV based on 5.5×10^{9} protons collected with the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer aboard the International Space Station. The proton fluxes exhibit variations on multiple timescales. From 2014 to 2018, we observed recurrent flux variations with a period of 27 days. Shorter periods of 9 days and 13.5 days are observed in 2016. The strength of all three periodicities changes with time and rigidity. The rigidity dependence of the 27-day periodicity is different from the rigidity dependences of 9-day and 13.5-day periods. Unexpectedly, the strength of 9-day and 13.5-day periodicities increases with increasing rigidities up to ∼10  GV and ∼20  GV, respectively. Then the strength of the periodicities decreases with increasing rigidity up to 100 GV.

[Clinical characteristics of severe pre-eclampsia in a single tertiary referral center]

Objective: To explore the feasibility and key point of improvement in preventing and postponing the onset of severe pre-eclampsia (SPE) and its severe complications in the tertiary referral system by analyzing the clinical characteristics of SPE in a single tertiary referral center. Methods: The clinical data of 217 patients with SPE who were hospitalized and terminated pregnancy in Peking University Third Hospital from January 2020 to December 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors, clinical characteristics and severe complications of SPE between the patients referred from primary hospitals (referral group) and the patients received regular prenatal care in the tertiary referral center (central group) were compared, as well as the influence of the referral timing on the characteristics and perinatal outcome. Results: (1) Clinical characteristics: among the 217 cases of SPE, 84 cases were in the referral group and 133 cases were in the central group. The gestational ages at SPE clinical diagnosis [31.5 weeks (28.1-34.6 weeks) vs 35.6 weeks (33.3-37.2 weeks); Z=-6.547, P<0.01], termination of pregnancy [32.3 weeks (29.5- 35.1 weeks) vs 36.3 weeks (34.4-37.5 weeks); Z=-6.554, P<0.01] and onset of SPE severe complications [30.6 weeks (26.4-32.7 weeks) vs 34.9 weeks (32.7-36.5 weeks); Z=-4.040, P<0.01] in the referral group were significantly earlier than those in the central group, the rates of ICU [10.7% (9/84) vs 3.8% (5/133); χ²=4.126, P=0.042] and neonatal ICU hospitalization [72.9% (51/70) vs 54.7% (70/128); χ²=6.286, P=0.012] were higher than those in the central group, while the live birth rate [83.3% (70/84) vs 96.2% (128/133); χ²=10.736, P=0.001] was lower than that of the central group. (2) Analysis of risk factors: for the patient whose risk factors were obesity, advanced age or pre-eclampsia history, the gestational ages at SPE clinical diagnosis and termination of pregnancy in the referral group were significantly earlier than those in the central group (P<0.05). For those with chronic hypertension, the gestational ages at severe complications onset in the referral group were significantly later than those in the central group (P<0.05). For those without obvious risk factors, the gestational ages at SPE clinical diagnosis, termination of pregnancy and onset of SPE severe complications in the referral group were earlier than those in the central group (P<0.05). (3) Analysis of severe complications: the top three severe complications in the referral group and the central group were hypertensive encephalopathy/cerebrovascular accident [20.2% (17/84) vs 7.5% (10/133)], HELLP syndrome [7.1% (6/84) vs 8.3% (11/133)] and placental abruption [8.3% (7/84) vs 7.5% (10/133)]. The rate of hypertensive encephalopathy/cerebrovascular accident in the referral group was significantly higher than that in the central group (χ²=7.645,P=0.006). (4) Analysis of referral timings: the timings included referral after onset of SPE severe complications (8.3%, 7/84), referral after onset of SPE (67.9%, 57/84), referral after detection of SPE early warning signs (14.3%, 12/84) and referral after detection of SPE risk factors in the 2nd and 3rd trimester (9.5%, 8/84). The earlier the referral, the longer the interval from clinical diagnosis to onset of severe complications, from referral to termination of pregnancy, and from referral to severe complications onset (P<0.05). The earlier the referral, the lower the NICU hospitalization rates, the higher the live birth rates. The ICU hospitalization rate of referrals after severe complications onset was significantly higher than those of the other three referral timing groups (P<0.05). Conclusions: SPE occurs in hospitals of different levels. Although tertiary referral center may postpone the onset of SPE and its severe complications, reduce the severity of SPE and prolong the gestational age, its awareness of prevention and control still needs to be further improved. Early identification of the risk of SPE and timely referral are important parts of improving SPE adverse outcomes in primary medical institutions. The significance and value of referral system need to be brought into full play.

Erratum: Properties of a New Group of Cosmic Nuclei: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on Sodium, Aluminum, and Nitrogen [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 021101 (2021)]

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.127.021101.

Fingerprint building and positioning based on wireless sensor networks for underground

This paper proposes an algorithm of fingerprint constructing and positioning based on wireless sensor networks. The positioning area of underground is divided into several sub-areas according to the neighborhood principle. The reliability mechanism based on the calibration node is established in each sub-area, and the availability of the reference point fingerprint is later determined by the reliability mechanism of the sub-area. When the fingerprint data of the sub-region reference point changes too much, the neighborhood mapping fingerprint model trained by the back propagaption neural network is used to construct the fingerprint. The principle of the neighborhood mapping model is to train the neighborhood relationship between each reference point and its adjacent calibration node in the offline phase to form a network model structure. Then, we use this model to build the fingerprint of reference point in the online stage. In the real-time positioning stage, we use the positioning model based on the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system. The average positioning error of our proposed algorithm is 3.03 m, when there is a seven day interval between the training dataset and testing dataset, which confirms that the proposed algorithm can be better adapted to the changing environment and to achieve better positioning results.

Properties of a New Group of Cosmic Nuclei: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on Sodium, Aluminum, and Nitrogen

We report the properties of sodium (Na) and aluminum (Al) cosmic rays in the rigidity range 2.15 GV to 3.0 TV based on 0.46 million sodium and 0.51 million aluminum nuclei collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment on the International Space Station. We found that Na and Al, together with nitrogen (N), belong to a distinct cosmic ray group. In this group, we observe that, similar to the N flux, both the Na flux and Al flux are well described by the sums of a primary cosmic ray component (proportional to the silicon flux) and a secondary cosmic ray component (proportional to the fluorine flux). The fraction of the primary component increases with rigidity for the N, Na, and Al fluxes and becomes dominant at the highest rigidities. The Na/Si and Al/Si abundance ratios at the source, 0.036±0.003 for Na/Si and 0.103±0.004 for Al/Si, are determined independent of cosmic ray propagation.

[Sleep status associated with psychological and behavioral problems in adolescents and children]

Objective: To examine whether sleep status and social jet lag are related to the mental health behaviors in children and adolescents, providing a reference for preventing and improving children and adolescents' mental health behaviors. Methods: A large cross-section was conducted in Baoan District, Shenzhen, from April to May 2019. A total of 30 188 adolescents and children in grades 1-12 in 14 schools were included. The growth trajectory and health index questionnaire of primary and secondary school students were designed to evaluate the sleep status. Mental health behavior problems among students were accessed using the parents' and students' versions of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. After controlling for confounding factors of demographic variables, including gender, age, parental education level, academic performance, learning burden, and noise impact, a multivariate logistic regression model was used for statistical analyses. Results: The sleep duration of four grades students were 90.4％,90.1％, 98.2％, and 98.4％, respectively. 19.9％ did not have a post-lunch nap. 19.6％ had a wake-up delay of more than or equal to 2 h weekend morning. 35.1％ had an inconsistent bedtime and 15.5％ had an inconsistent awakening time. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that compared with 8-9 h, the sleep duration of elementary school juniors at night less than or equal to 7 h, 7-8 h increased the risk of psychological behavior problems. The sleep time more than 9 h was negatively correlated with psychological behavior problems. The sleep duration of elementary school seniors less than or equal to 7 h increased the risk of psychological behavior problems. The sleep duration of middle school and high school students less than or equal to 6 h increased psychological behavior problems. The ORs (95％CI) appeared as 2.53(1.85-3.47), 2.41(1.11-5.25), respectively. The ones with a sleep time more than 9 h also increased the risk, and ORs (95％CI) appeared as 2.37(1.40-4.01), 5.38 (1.79-16.1), respectively. Both the absence of post-lunch nap and the nap time less than 0.5 h were risk factors for psychological behavior problems in primary and middle school students. The nap time over 1-2 h was also a risk factor for high school students' psychological behavior problems. Waking up at irregular times in the morning, going to bed at varying times in the evening, and delaying getting up for more than or equal to 2 h on weekends were all risk factors for psychological and behavioral problems among primary and middle school students. The ORs (95％CI) of psychological behavior problems of elementary school juniors and seniors, middle school and high school students were 2.07 (1.45-2.97), 1.57 (1.09-2.26), 2.66 (2.06-3.44), 2.48 (1.96-3.15), respectively. Conclusions: Sleep duration, no post-lunch sleep, and daily intraindividual variability of sleep is positively associated with poor mental health. Additionally, social jet lag is associated with mental health problems in students. It is noted that delaying sleep within half an hour on the weekends of elementary school juniors is significantly associated with an increase in bad mental behavior.

[The relationship between migration time and the prevalence of myopia of children and adolescents aged 6-18 years old in Shenzhen]

Objective: To analyze the relationship between migration time and the prevalence of myopia of children and adolescents aged between 6 and 18 years old in Shenzhen. Methods: From April to May 2019, 26 618 children and adolescents from 14 schools in six streets of Baoan District, including Fuyong, Shajing, Xin'an, Xixiang, Songgang and Shiyan, were included in the study by using random cluster sampling method. The demographic characteristics, migration status, self-reported myopia, screen time in the last seven days, outdoor activities in the last one month and other information were collected through the questionnaire. The differences of myopia among children and adolescents with different characteristics were compared by χ² test, and the relationship between migration time and the prevalence of myopia was analyzed by multivariate unconditional logistic regression model. Results: The age of 26 618 study participants was (12.37±3.49) years old, and the overall prevalence of myopia was 49.4%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after controlling for relevant confounding factors, compared with migrant children and adolescents of migrant workers who migrated for 1-2 years, those of migrant workers who had migrated for more than 6 years had a higher risk of myopia [OR (95%CI): 1.48 (1.14-1.92)]. After being grouped by phase of school, in the lower grade group of primary school, the children and adolescents of migrant workers who had migrated for more than 6 years had a higher risk of myopia compared with those of migrant workers who migrated for 1-2 years [OR (95%CI): 1.96 (1.20-2.74)]. In the high school group, compared with the children and adolescents of migrant workers who migrated for 1-2 years, those of migrant workers who had migrated for 3-5 years and ≥6 years had a higher risk of myopia [OR (95%CI): 6.03 (1.29-28.15) and 6.52 (1.51-28.11), respectively]. Conclusion: The migration time is related to the prevalence of myopia of the children and adolescents of migrant workers.

Properties of Heavy Secondary Fluorine Cosmic Rays: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

Precise knowledge of the charge and rigidity dependence of the secondary cosmic ray fluxes and the secondary-to-primary flux ratios is essential in the understanding of cosmic ray propagation. We report the properties of heavy secondary cosmic ray fluorine F in the rigidity R range 2.15 GV to 2.9 TV based on 0.29 million events collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment on the International Space Station. The fluorine spectrum deviates from a single power law above 200 GV. The heavier secondary-to-primary F/Si flux ratio rigidity dependence is distinctly different from the lighter B/O (or B/C) rigidity dependence. In particular, above 10 GV, the F/Si/B/O ratio can be described by a power law R^{δ} with δ=0.052±0.007. This shows that the propagation properties of heavy cosmic rays, from F to Si, are different from those of light cosmic rays, from He to O, and that the secondary cosmic rays have two classes.

Properties of Iron Primary Cosmic Rays: Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

We report the observation of new properties of primary iron (Fe) cosmic rays in the rigidity range 2.65 GV to 3.0 TV with 0.62×10^{6} iron nuclei collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment on the International Space Station. Above 80.5 GV the rigidity dependence of the cosmic ray Fe flux is identical to the rigidity dependence of the primary cosmic ray He, C, and O fluxes, with the Fe/O flux ratio being constant at 0.155±0.006. This shows that unexpectedly Fe and He, C, and O belong to the same class of primary cosmic rays which is different from the primary cosmic rays Ne, Mg, and Si class.

Development and external validation of a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction algorithm: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop and externally validate a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction algorithm.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Five designated tertiary hospitals for COVID-19 in Hubei province, China.

PARTICIPANTS

We routinely collected medical data of 1364 confirmed adult patients with COVID-19 between 8 January and 19 March 2020. Among them, 1088 patients from two designated hospitals in Wuhan were used to develop the prognostic model, and 276 patients from three hospitals outside Wuhan were used for external validation. All patients were followed up for a maximal of 60 days after the diagnosis of COVID-19.

METHODS

The model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Somers' D test, and calibration was examined by the calibration plot. Decision curve analysis was conducted.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 60 days after the diagnosis of COVID-19.

RESULTS

The full model included seven predictors of age, respiratory failure, white cell count, lymphocytes, platelets, D-dimer and lactate dehydrogenase. The simple model contained five indicators of age, respiratory failure, coronary heart disease, renal failure and heart failure. After cross-validation, the AUC statistics based on derivation cohort were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.96 to 0.97) for the full model and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.89 to 0.95) for the simple model. The AUC statistics based on the external validation cohort were 0.97 (95% CI, 0.96 to 0.98) for the full model and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80 to 0.96) for the simple model. Good calibration accuracy of these two models was found in the derivation and validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

The prediction models showed good model performance in identifying patients with COVID-19 with a high risk of death in 60 days. It may be useful for acute risk classification.

WEB CALCULATOR

We provided a freely accessible web calculator (https://www.whuyijia.com/).

Properties of Neon, Magnesium, and Silicon Primary Cosmic Rays Results from the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

We report the observation of new properties of primary cosmic rays, neon (Ne), magnesium (Mg), and silicon (Si), measured in the rigidity range 2.15 GV to 3.0 TV with 1.8×10^{6}  Ne, 2.2×10^{6}  Mg, and 1.6×10^{6}  Si nuclei collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer experiment on the International Space Station. The Ne and Mg spectra have identical rigidity dependence above 3.65 GV. The three spectra have identical rigidity dependence above 86.5 GV, deviate from a single power law above 200 GV, and harden in an identical way. Unexpectedly, above 86.5 GV the rigidity dependence of primary cosmic rays Ne, Mg, and Si spectra is different from the rigidity dependence of primary cosmic rays He, C, and O. This shows that the Ne, Mg, and Si and He, C, and O are two different classes of primary cosmic rays.

Long-term Results Comparing Cervical Disc Arthroplasty to Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVE

Whether cervical disc arthroplasty (CDA) is superior to anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) remains controversial, especially in relation to long-term results. The present study aimed to evaluate the long-term safety and efficiency of CDA and ACDF for cervical disc disease.

METHODS

We performed this study according to the Cochrane methodology. An extensive search was undertaken in PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases up to 1 June 2019 using the following key words: "anterior cervical fusion," "arthroplasty," "replacement" and "artificial disc". RevMan 5.3 (Cochrane, London, UK) was used to analyze data. Safety and efficiency outcome measures included the success rate, functional outcome measures, adverse events (AE), adjacent segment degeneration (ASD), secondary surgery, and patients' satisfaction and recommendation rates. The OR and MD with 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate discontinuous and continuous variables, respectively. The statistically significant level was set at P < 0.05.

RESULTS

A total of 11 randomized controlled trials with 3505 patients (CDA/ACDF: 1913/1592) were included in this meta-analysis. Compared with ACDF, CDA achieved significantly higher overall success (2.10, 95% CI [1.70, 2.59]), neck disability index (NDI) success (1.73, 95% CI [1.37, 2.18]), neurological success (1.65, 95% CI [1.24, 2.20]), patients' satisfaction (2.14, 95% CI [1.50, 3.05]), and patients' recommendation rates (3.23, 95% CI [1.79, 5.80]). Functional outcome measures such as visual analog score neck pain (-5.50, 95% CI [-8.49, -2.52]) and arm pain (-3.78, 95% CI [-7.04, -0.53]), the Short Form-36 physical component score (SF-36 PCS) (1.93, 95% CI [0.53, 3.32]), and the Short Form-36 mental component score (SF-36 MCS) (2.62, 95% CI [0.95, 4.29]), revealed superiority in the CDA group. CDA also achieved a significantly lower rate of symptomatic ASD (0.46, 95% CI [0.34, 0.63]), total secondary surgery (0.50, 95% CI [0.29, 0.87]), secondary surgery at the index level (0.46, 95% CI [0.29, 0.74]), and secondary surgery at the adjacent level (0.37, 95% CI [0.28, 0.49]). However, no significant difference was found in radiological success (1.35, 95% CI [0.88, 2.08]), NDI score (-2.88, 95% CI [-5.93, 0.17]), total reported AE (1.14, 95% CI [0.92, 1.42]), serious AE (0.89, 95% CI [0.71, 1.11]), device/surgery-related AE (0.90, 95% CI [0.68, 1.18]), radiological superior ASD (0.63, 95% CI [0.28, 1.43]), inferior ASD (0.45, 95% CI [0.19, 1.11]), and work status (1.33, 95% CI [0.78, 2.25]). Furthermore, subgroup analysis showed different results between US and non-US groups.

CONCLUSION

Our study provided further evidence that compared to ACDF, CDA had a higher long-term clinical success rate and better functional outcome measurements, and resulted in less symptomatic ASD and fewer secondary surgeries. However, worldwide multicenter RCT with long-term follow up are still needed for further evaluation in the future.

Properties of Cosmic Helium Isotopes Measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer

Precision measurements by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer (AMS) on the International Space Station of ^{3}He and ^{4}He fluxes are presented. The measurements are based on 100 million ^{4}He nuclei in the rigidity range from 2.1 to 21 GV and 18 million ^{3}He from 1.9 to 15 GV collected from May 2011 to November 2017. We observed that the ^{3}He and ^{4}He fluxes exhibit nearly identical variations with time. The relative magnitude of the variations decreases with increasing rigidity. The rigidity dependence of the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio is measured for the first time. Below 4 GV, the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio was found to have a significant long-term time dependence. Above 4 GV, the ^{3}He/^{4}He flux ratio was found to be time independent, and its rigidity dependence is well described by a single power law ∝R^{Δ} with Δ=-0.294±0.004. Unexpectedly, this value is in agreement with the B/O and B/C spectral indices at high energies.

[Characteristics of Stable Isotopes in Precipitation and Moisture Sources in the Headwaters of the Yangtze River]

Based on the stable isotopes of 73 precipitation samples continuously collected from May to October 2014 and related meteorological statistics in the Dongkemaldi Basin, the characteristics of δD, δ¹⁸O, and d-excess of precipitation, as well as the correlations between δ¹⁸O and the rainfall amount and air temperature were analyzed. The moisture sources were tracked by the HYSPLIT model to further estimate the contribution of different water vapor sources to the rainfall amount. The results showed that the range of δ¹⁸O and δD values varied from -26.5‰ to 1.9‰ and -195.2‰ to 34.0‰, respectively; meanwhile, the δ¹⁸O and δD values in precipitation fluctuated greatly with time in response to water vapor transport from different moisture sources of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The slope and intercept of the Local Meteoric Water Line (LMWL) were both higher than those of the Global Meteoric Water Line (GMWL) and close to the LMWL in the northern area of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The relationship between δ¹⁸O and δD in different precipitation types showed significant differences, which were mainly related to the source of water vapor and meteorological conditions during the process of precipitation formation. Because of the influence of local evaporation and the transport process of water vapor, the d-excess values of atmospheric precipitation were relatively large; the δ¹⁸O in precipitation had a significant amount effect, but had no temperature effect, thus indicating that the rainfall amount was more effective in controlling the stable isotope content of atmospheric precipitation than temperature. The modeled trajectory of vapor sources showed that water vapor of precipitation was mainly derived from the marine vapor carried by the southwest monsoon, local moisture, and the westerly water vapor, and their contributions to the rainfall amount were 43%, 36%, and 21%, respectively. The results of this study can contribute to further understanding of the atmospheric circulation characteristics and water cycle process of the Dongkemadi basin in the headwaters of the Yangtze River.

Decreased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma among metformin users in a population-based cohort study

e15507

Background: Metformin, mainly used in the treatment of diabetes, may prevent various types of cancer, but no study has specifically examined its potential influence on the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma, the major histological type of esophageal cancer. The aim of this study was to determine the association between metformin use and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Methods: This was a nationwide population-based prospective cohort study conducted in Sweden in 2005-2015. Among 8.4 million participants identified from the Swedish Prescribed Drug Registry, 411,603 (5%) were users of metformin. The metformin users were compared with 10 times as many frequency-matched non-users of metformin (n = 4,116,030) by age and sex. Multivariable cause-specific proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for age, sex, calendar year, place of residence, tobacco smoking, alcohol overconsumption, and use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs or statins. Results: The incidence rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were 3.5 per 100,000 person-years among the metformin users and 5.3 per 100,000 person-years in the non-users. Metformin users overall were at a decreased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma compared with non-users (adjusted HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.54-0.85). The decrease in risk was more pronounced in new metformin users who were 56 years old when they started their metformin therapy (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.30-0.65). Conclusions: Metformin therapy may decrease the risk of developing esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Prediction of individuals at high absolute risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

This study aimed to develop a prediction model for identifying individuals at high absolute risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) for endoscopic screening at a curable stage based on readily identifiable risk factors.

METHODS

This was a nationwide Swedish population-based, case-control study, including 167 new cases of ESCC and 820 randomly selected control participants. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were assessed by using multivariable unconditional logistic regression. The discriminative accuracy of the model was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with leave-1-out cross validation. Models for projecting individuals' absolute 5-year risk of ESCC were developed by incorporating the age-specific and sex-specific incidence rates and competing risk of death from other causes.

RESULTS

A model including the risk factors age, sex, tobacco smoking, alcohol overconsumption, education, duration of living with a partner, and place of residence during childhood generated an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.84). A model based only on age, sex, tobacco smoking, and alcohol overconsumption obtained a similar AUC (0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.82). A 5-year follow-up of 355 men aged 70 to 74 years with over 35 years' smoking and alcohol overconsumption history is needed to detect 1 ESCC case. The estimated individuals' absolute 5-year risk of ESCC varied according to the combinations of risk factors.

CONCLUSION

This easy-to-use risk prediction model showed a good discriminative accuracy and had the potential to identify individuals at high absolute risk of ESCC who might benefit from tailored endoscopic screening and surveillance.

Towards Understanding the Origin of Cosmic-Ray Electrons

Precision results on cosmic-ray electrons are presented in the energy range from 0.5 GeV to 1.4 TeV based on 28.1×10^{6} electrons collected by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer on the International Space Station. In the entire energy range the electron and positron spectra have distinctly different magnitudes and energy dependences. The electron flux exhibits a significant excess starting from 42.1_{-5.2}^{+5.4}  GeV compared to the lower energy trends, but the nature of this excess is different from the positron flux excess above 25.2±1.8  GeV. Contrary to the positron flux, which has an exponential energy cutoff of 810_{-180}^{+310}  GeV, at the 5σ level the electron flux does not have an energy cutoff below 1.9 TeV. In the entire energy range the electron flux is well described by the sum of two power law components. The different behavior of the cosmic-ray electrons and positrons measured by the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer is clear evidence that most high energy electrons originate from different sources than high energy positrons.

[A large scale cohort study on AIDS in communities in Dali, Yunnan province, 2014-2015]

Objective: To understand HIV incidence in community residents and epidemiological characteristics of newly detected HIV infection cases in Dali, Yunnan province. Methods: A cohort study was conducted among 146 720 community residents who were tested to be HIV negative during 2010-2011, they were followed-up from June 1, 2014 to May 31, 2015. Results: A total of 136 356 community residents received follow up (92.9%). The follow-up time was 0.23-5.40 years (medium: 3.43 years), cumulatively 459 675 person years, and 78 people were found to be HIV positive. The incidence rate of HIV infection was 0.170/1 000 person years. The incidence rate was 0.037/1 000 person years in age group 15-29 years, 0.288/1 000 person years in age group 30-44 years, 0.210/1 000 person years in age group 45-59 years, 0.204/1 000 person years in age ≥60 years; 0.213/1 000 person years in males, 0.130/1 000 person years in females; 0.248/1 000 person years in Han ethnic group, 0.149/1 000 person years in Minorities; 0.194/1 000 in people with education level ≤ junior middle school, 0.046/1 000 person years in people with education level > junior middle school; 0.070/1 000 person years in the unmarried, 0.194/1 000 person years in the married and 0.425/1 000 person years in the divorced/widowed. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that being male (HR=1.731), aged 30-44 years (HR=13.158), aged 45-59 years (HR=10.329), aged ≥60 years (HR=8.291), unmarried (HR=3.162) and divorced/widowed (HR=2.689) were the risk factors for HIV infection, while the education level > junior middle school (HR=0.132) was the protective factor for HIV infection. Conclusions: By medium 3.43 years follow up, the cohort study showed that incidence rate HIV infection was 0.170/1 000 person years in the community residents in Dali. Male, middle aged and old people, people with low education level, the unmarried and the divorced/widowed had relatively higher risk to be infected with HIV, Close attention should be paid to the prevention and control of AIDS in these populations.