Nocturnally migrating songbirds drift when they can and compensate when they must

The shortest possible migratory route for birds is not always the best route to travel. Substantial research effort has established that birds in captivity are capable of orienting toward the direction of an intended goal, but efforts to examine how free-living birds use navigational information under conditions that potentially make direct flight toward that goal inefficient have been limited in spatiotemporal scales and in the number of individuals observed because of logistical and technological limitations. Using novel and recently developed techniques for analysis of Doppler polarimetric weather surveillance radar data, we examined two impediments for nocturnally migrating songbirds in eastern North America following shortest-distance routes: crosswinds and oceans. We found that migrants in flight often drifted sideways on crosswinds, but most strongly compensated for drift when near the Atlantic coast. Coastal migrants’ tendency to compensate for wind drift also increased through the night, while no strong temporal differences were observed at inland sites. Such behaviors suggest that birds migrate in an adaptive way to conserve energy by assessing while airborne the degree to which they must compensate for wind drift.

Seasonal changes in the altitudinal distribution of nocturnally migrating birds during autumn migration

Wind plays a significant role in the flight altitudes selected by nocturnally migrating birds. At mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric conditions are dictated by the polar-front jet stream, whose amplitude increases in the autumn. One consequence for migratory birds is that the region's prevailing westerly winds become progressively stronger at higher migration altitudes. We expect this seasonality in wind speed to result in migrants occupying progressively lower flight altitudes, which we test using density estimates of nocturnal migrants at 100 m altitudinal intervals from 12 weather surveillance radar stations located in the northeastern USA. Contrary to our expectations, median migration altitudes deviated little across the season, and the variance was lower during the middle of the season and higher during the beginning and especially the end of the season. Early-season migrants included small- to intermediate-sized long-distance migrants in the orders Charadriiformes and Passeriformes, and late-season migrants included large-bodied and intermediate-distance migrants in the order Anseriformes. Therefore, seasonality in the composition of migratory species, and related variation in migration strategies and behaviours, resulted in a convex-concave bounded distribution of migration altitudes. Our results provide a basis for assessing the implications for migratory bird populations of changes in mid-latitude atmospheric conditions probably occurring under global climate change.

Taking a 'Big Data' approach to data quality in a citizen science project

Data from well-designed experiments provide the strongest evidence of causation in biodiversity studies. However, for many species the collection of these data is not scalable to the spatial and temporal extents required to understand patterns at the population level. Only data collected from citizen science projects can gather sufficient quantities of data, but data collected from volunteers are inherently noisy and heterogeneous. Here we describe a 'Big Data' approach to improve the data quality in eBird, a global citizen science project that gathers bird observations. First, eBird's data submission design ensures that all data meet high standards of completeness and accuracy. Second, we take a 'sensor calibration' approach to measure individual variation in eBird participant's ability to detect and identify birds. Third, we use species distribution models to fill in data gaps. Finally, we provide examples of novel analyses exploring population-level patterns in bird distributions.

Can Observation Skills of Citizen Scientists Be Estimated Using Species Accumulation Curves?

Volunteers are increasingly being recruited into citizen science projects to collect observations for scientific studies. An additional goal of these projects is to engage and educate these volunteers. Thus, there are few barriers to participation resulting in volunteer observers with varying ability to complete the project's tasks. To improve the quality of a citizen science project's outcomes it would be useful to account for inter-observer variation, and to assess the rarely tested presumption that participating in a citizen science projects results in volunteers becoming better observers. Here we present a method for indexing observer variability based on the data routinely submitted by observers participating in the citizen science project eBird, a broad-scale monitoring project in which observers collect and submit lists of the bird species observed while birding. Our method for indexing observer variability uses species accumulation curves, lines that describe how the total number of species reported increase with increasing time spent in collecting observations. We find that differences in species accumulation curves among observers equates to higher rates of species accumulation, particularly for harder-to-identify species, and reveals increased species accumulation rates with continued participation. We suggest that these properties of our analysis provide a measure of observer skill, and that the potential to derive post-hoc data-derived measurements of participant ability should be more widely explored by analysts of data from citizen science projects. We see the potential for inferential results from analyses of citizen science data to be improved by accounting for observer skill.

Abundance models improve spatial and temporal prioritization of conservation resources

Conservation prioritization requires knowledge about organism distribution and density. This information is often inferred from models that estimate the probability of species occurrence rather than from models that estimate species abundance, because abundance data are harder to obtain and model. However, occurrence and abundance may not display similar patterns and therefore development of robust, scalable, abundance models is critical to ensuring that scarce conservation resources are applied where they can have the greatest benefits. Motivated by a dynamic land conservation program, we develop and assess a general method for modeling relative abundance using citizen science monitoring data. Weekly estimates of relative abundance and occurrence were compared for prioritizing times and locations of conservation actions for migratory waterbird species in California, USA. We found that abundance estimates consistently provided better rankings of observed counts than occurrence estimates. Additionally, the relationship between abundance and occurrence was nonlinear and varied by species and season. Across species, locations prioritized by occurrence models had only 10-58% overlap with locations prioritized by abundance models, highlighting that occurrence models will not typically identify the locations of highest abundance that are vital for conservation of populations.

Migration timing and its determinants for nocturnal migratory birds during autumn migration

1. Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments, and multiple environmental and biological factors determine the timing of migration. How these factors operate in combination during autumn migration, which is considered to be under weaker time constraints relative to spring migration, is not clear. 2. Here, we examine the patterns and determinants of migration timing for nocturnal migrants during autumn migration in the north-eastern USA using nocturnal reflectivity data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations and modelled diurnal probability of occurrence for 142 species of nocturnal migrants. We first model the capacity of seasonal atmospheric conditions (wind and precipitation) and ecological productivity (vegetation greenness) to predict autumn migration intensity. We then test predictions, formulated under optimal migration theory, on how migration timing should be related to assemblage-level estimates of body size and total migration distance within the context of dietary guild (insectivore and omnivore) and level of dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 3. Our results indicate seasonal declines in ecological productivity delineate the beginning and end of peak migration, whose intensity is best predicted by the velocity of winds at migration altitudes. Insectivorous migrants departed earlier in the season and, consistent with our predictions, large-bodied and long-distance insectivorous migrants departed the earliest. Contrary to our predictions, large-bodied and some long-distance omnivorous migrants departed later in the season, patterns that were replicated in part by insectivorous migrants that displayed dietary plasticity during autumn migration. 4. Our findings indicate migration timing in the region is dictated by optimality strategies, modified based on the breadth and flexibility of migrant's foraging diets, with declining ecological productivity defining possible resource thresholds during which migration occurs when winds at migration altitudes are mild. These observations provide the basis to assess how avian migration strategies may be affected by adjustments in seasonal patterns of atmospheric circulation and ecological productivity that may occur under global climate change.

Response of black-capped chickadees to house finch Mycoplasma gallisepticum

Tests for the presence of pathogen DNA or antibodies are routinely used to survey for current or past infections. In diseases that emerge following a host jump estimates of infection rate might be under- or overestimated. We here examine whether observed rates of infection are biased for a non-focal host species in a model system. The bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum is a widespread pathogen in house finches (Haemorhous mexicanus), a fringillid finch, but an unknown proportion of individuals of other songbird species are also infected. Our goal is to determine the extent to which detection of M. gallisepticum DNA or antibodies against the bacteria in a non-fringillid bird species is over- or underestimated using black-capped chickadees Poecile atricapillus, a species in which antibodies against M. gallisepticum are frequently detected in free-living individuals. After keeping black-capped chickadees in captivity for 12 weeks, during which period the birds remained negative for M. gallisepticum, four were inoculated with M. gallisepticum and four were sham inoculated in both eyes to serve as negative controls. Simultaneously we inoculated six house finches with the same isolate of M. gallisepticum as a positive control. All inoculated birds of both species developed infections detectable by qPCR in the conjunctiva. For the 6 weeks following inoculation we detected antibodies in all M. gallisepticum-inoculated house finches but in only three of the four M. gallisepticum-inoculated black-capped chickadees. All house finches developed severe eye lesions but none of the black-capped chickadees did. Modeling the Rapid Plate Agglutination test results of black-capped chickadees shows that the rate of false-positive tests would be not more than 3.2%, while the estimated rate of false negatives is 55%. We conclude that the proportion of wild-caught individuals in which we detect M. gallisepticum-specific antibodies using Rapid Plate Agglutination is, if anything, substantially underestimated.

Documenting stewardship responsibilities across the annual cycle for birds on U.S. public lands

In the face of global environmental change, the importance of protected areas in biological management and conservation is expected to grow. Birds have played an important role as biological indicators of the effectiveness of protected areas, but with little consideration given to where species occur outside the breeding season. We estimated weekly probability of occurrence for 308 bird species throughout the year within protected areas in the western contiguous USA using eBird occurrence data for the combined period 2004 to 2011. We classified species based on their annual patterns of occurrence on lands having intermediate conservation mandates (GAP status 2 and 3) administered by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the United States Forest Service (USFS). We identified species having consistent annual association with one agency, and species whose associations across the annual cycle switched between agencies. BLM and USFS GAP status 2 and 3 lands contained low to moderate proportions of species occurrences, with proportions highest for species that occurred year-round or only during the summer. We identified two groups of species whose annual movements resulted in changes in stewardship responsibilities: (1) year-round species that occurred on USFS lands during the breeding season and BLM lands during the nonbreeding season; and (2) summer species that occurred on USFS lands during the breeding season and BLM lands during spring and autumn migration. Species that switched agencies had broad distributions, bred on high-elevation USFS lands, were not more likely to be identified as species of special management concern, and migrated short (year-round species) to long distances (summer species). Our findings suggest cooperative efforts that address the requirements of short-distance migratory species on GAP status 2 lands (n = 20 species) and GAP status 3 lands (n = 24) and long-distance migratory species on GAP status 2 lands (n = 9) would likely benefit their populations. Such efforts may prove especially relevant for species whose seasonal movements result in associations with different environments containing contrasting global change processes and management mandates.

Spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped migration strategies by birds

Migration is a common strategy used by birds that breed in seasonal environments. The patterns and determinants of migration routes, however, remain poorly understood. Recent empirical analyses have demonstrated that the locations of two North America migration flyways (eastern and western) shift seasonally, reflecting the influence of looped migration strategies. For the eastern but not western flyway, seasonal variation in atmospheric circulation has been identified as an explanation. Here, we test an alternative explanation based on the phenology of ecological productivity, which may be of greater relevance in western North America, where phenology is more broadly dictated by elevation. Migrants in the western flyway selected lower-elevation spring routes that were wetter, greener and more productive, and higher-elevation autumn routes that were less green and less productive, but probably more direct. Migrants in the eastern flyway showed little season variation but maintained associations with maximum regional greenness. Our findings suggest the annual phenology of ecological productivity is associated with en route timing in both flyways, and the spring phenology of ecological productivity contributes to the use of looped strategies in the western flyway. This fine-tuned spatial synchronization may be disrupted when changing climate induces a mismatch between food availability and needs.

Diverse wild bird host range of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in eastern North America

Emerging infectious diseases often result from pathogens jumping to novel hosts. Identifying possibilities and constraints on host transfer is therefore an important facet of research in disease ecology. Host transfers can be studied for the bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum, predominantly a pathogen of poultry until its 1994 appearance and subsequent epidemic spread in a wild songbird, the house finch Haemorhous mexicanus and some other wild birds. We screened a broad range of potential host species for evidence of infection by M. gallisepticum in order to answer 3 questions: (1) is there a host phylogenetic constraint on the likelihood of host infection (house finches compared to other bird species); (2) does opportunity for close proximity (visiting bird feeders) increase the likelihood of a potential host being infected; and (3) is there seasonal variation in opportunity for host jumping (winter resident versus summer resident species). We tested for pathogen exposure both by using PCR to test for the presence of M. gallisepticum DNA and by rapid plate agglutination to test for the presence of antibodies. We examined 1,941 individual birds of 53 species from 19 avian families. In 27 species (15 families) there was evidence for exposure with M. gallisepticum although conjunctivitis was very rare in non-finches. There was no difference in detection rate between summer and winter residents, nor between feeder birds and species that do not come to feeders. Evidence of M. gallisepticum infection was found in all species for which at least 20 individuals had been sampled. Combining the present results with those of previous studies shows that a diverse range of wild bird species may carry or have been exposed to M. gallisepticum in the USA as well as in Europe and Asia.

An exception to the rule: carry-over effects do not accumulate in a long-distance migratory bird

Recent years have seen a growing consensus that events during one part of an animal's annual cycle can detrimentally affect its future fitness. Notably, migratory species have been shown to commonly display such carry-over effects, facing severe time constraints and physiological stresses that can influence events across seasons. However, to date, no study has examined a full annual cycle to determine when these carry-over effects arise and how long they persist within and across years. Understanding when carry-over effects are created and how they persist is critical to identifying those periods and geographic locations that constrain the annual cycle of a population and determining how selection is acting upon individuals throughout the entire year. Using three consecutive years of migration tracks and four consecutive years of breeding success data, we tested whether carry-over effects in the form of timing deviations during one migratory segment of the annual cycle represent fitness costs that persist or accumulate across the annual cycle for a long-distance migratory bird, the Hudsonian godwit, Limosa haemastica. We found that individual godwits could migrate progressively later than population mean over the course of an entire migration period, especially southbound migration, but that these deviations did not accumulate across the entire year and were not consistently detected among individuals across years. Furthermore, neither the accumulation of lateness during previous portions of the annual cycle nor arrival date at the breeding grounds resulted in individuals suffering reductions in their breeding success or survival. Given their extreme life history, such a lack of carry-over effects suggests that strong selection exists on godwits at each stage of the annual cycle and that carry-over effects may not be able to persist in such a system, but also emphasizes that high-quality stopover and wintering sites are critical to the maintenance of long-distance migratory populations.

Multiple host transfers, but only one successful lineage in a continent-spanning emergent pathogen

Emergence of a new disease in a novel host is thought to be a rare outcome following frequent pathogen transfers between host species. However, few opportunities exist to examine whether disease emergence stems from a single successful pathogen transfer, and whether this successful lineage represents only one of several pathogen transfers between hosts. We examined the successful host transfer and subsequent evolution of the bacterial pathogen Mycoplasma gallisepticum, an emergent pathogen of house finches (Haemorhous (formerly Carpodacus) mexicanus). Our principal goals were to assess whether host transfer has been a repeated event between the original poultry hosts and house finches, whether only a single host transfer was ultimately responsible for the emergence of M. gallisepticum in these finches, and whether the spread of the pathogen from east to west across North America has resulted in spatial structuring in the pathogen. Using a phylogeny of M. gallisepticum based on 107 isolates from domestic poultry, house finches and other songbirds, we infer that the bacterium has repeatedly jumped between these two groups of hosts but with only a single lineage of M. gallisepticum persisting and evolving in house finches; bacterial evolution has produced monophyletic eastern and western North American subclades.

Parallel patterns of increased virulence in a recently emerged wildlife pathogen

A bacterial pathogen of wild songbirds evolved higher virulence following its emergence in two separate regions of the host range.

The evolution of higher virulence during disease emergence has been predicted by theoretical models, but empirical studies of short-term virulence evolution following pathogen emergence remain rare. Here we examine patterns of short-term virulence evolution using archived isolates of the bacterium Mycoplasma gallisepticum collected during sequential emergence events in two geographically distinct populations of the host, the North American house finch (Haemorhous [formerly Carpodacus] mexicanus). We present results from two complementary experiments, one that examines the trend in pathogen virulence in eastern North American isolates over the course of the eastern epidemic (1994–2008), and the other a parallel experiment on Pacific coast isolates of the pathogen collected after M. gallisepticum established itself in western North American house finch populations (2006–2010). Consistent with theoretical expectations regarding short-term or dynamic evolution of virulence, we show rapid increases in pathogen virulence on both coasts following the pathogen's establishment in each host population. We also find evidence for positive genetic covariation between virulence and pathogen load, a proxy for transmission potential, among isolates of M. gallisepticum. As predicted by theory, indirect selection for increased transmission likely drove the evolutionary increase in virulence in both geographic locations. Our results provide one of the first empirical examples of rapid changes in virulence following pathogen emergence, and both the detected pattern and mechanism of positive genetic covariation between virulence and pathogen load are consistent with theoretical expectations. Our study provides unique empirical insight into the dynamics of short-term virulence evolution that are likely to operate in other emerging pathogens of wildlife and humans.

A long-standing paradox in the study of infectious diseases is why pathogens evolve to cause harm to the very hosts they depend on to survive and reproduce. Research over several decades suggests that this harm, or virulence, is an inevitable by-product of the pathogen replication needed to maximize the chance that a given pathogen will be transmitted to another host. Here we demonstrate that a recently emerged bacterial pathogen of a North American songbird species has gradually become more virulent during each of two emergence events in different regions of the host range. This evolution of higher virulence appears to have been driven by selection for high rates of pathogen replication, because bacterial isolates that are more virulent in finches also attain the highest loads in infected host tissues. Overall, our results indicate that emerging pathogens can evolve to become more virulent in their hosts, at least in the short term, when an increase in the pathogen's ability to replicate is linked with higher virulence. Our findings have important implications for understanding and predicting the severity of disease caused by emerging pathogens in wildlife, domestic animals, and humans.

Daily foraging patterns in free-living birds: exploring the predation-starvation trade-off

Daily patterns in the foraging behaviour of birds are assumed to balance the counteracting risks of predation and starvation. Predation risks are a function of the influence of weight on flight performance and foraging behaviours that may expose individuals to predators. Although recent research sheds light on daily patterns in weight gain, little data exist on daily foraging routines in free-living birds. In order to test the predictions of various hypotheses about daily patterns of foraging, we quantified the activity of four species of passerines in winter using radio-frequency identification receivers built into supplemental feeding stations. From records of 472,368 feeder visits by tagged birds, we found that birds generally started to feed before sunrise and continued to forage at a steady to increasing rate throughout the day. Foraging in most species terminated well before sunset, suggesting their required level of energy reserves was being reached before the end of the day. These results support the risk-spreading theorem over a long-standing hypothesis predicting bimodality in foraging behaviour purportedly driven by a trade-off between the risks of starvation and predation. Given the increased energetic demands experienced by birds during colder weather, our results suggest that birds' perceptions of risk are biased towards starvation avoidance in winter.

Multiple weather factors affect apparent survival of European passerine birds

Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for phenotypic and microevolutionary adaptations.

Spatiotemporal exploratory models for broad-scale survey data

The distributions of animal populations change and evolve through time. Migratory species exploit different habitats at different times of the year. Biotic and abiotic features that determine where a species lives vary due to natural and anthropogenic factors. This spatiotemporal variation needs to be accounted for in any modeling of species' distributions. In this paper we introduce a semiparametric model that provides a flexible framework for analyzing dynamic patterns of species occurrence and abundance from broad-scale survey data. The spatiotemporal exploratory model (STEM) adds essential spatiotemporal structure to existing techniques for developing species distribution models through a simple parametric structure without requiring a detailed understanding of the underlying dynamic processes. STEMs use a multi-scale strategy to differentiate between local and global-scale spatiotemporal structure. A user-specified species distribution model accounts for spatial and temporal patterning at the local level. These local patterns are then allowed to "scale up" via ensemble averaging to larger scales. This makes STEMs especially well suited for exploring distributional dynamics arising from a variety of processes. Using data from eBird, an online citizen science bird-monitoring project, we demonstrate that monthly changes in distribution of a migratory species, the Tree Swallow (Tachycineta bicolor), can be more accurately described with a STEM than a conventional bagged decision tree model in which spatiotemporal structure has not been imposed. We also demonstrate that there is no loss of model predictive power when a STEM is used to describe a spatiotemporal distribution with very little spatiotemporal variation; the distribution of a nonmigratory species, the Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis).

Climatic constraints on wintering bird distributions are modified by urbanization and weather

1. Ecologists have long been interested in the role of climate in shaping species' ranges, and in recent years, this relationship has taken on greater significance because of the need for accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on wildlife populations. Bioclimatic relationships, however, are potentially complicated by various environmental factors operating at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we test the hypothesis that climatic constraints on bird distributions are modified by species-specific responses to weather, urbanization and use of supplemental food. 2. Our analyses focused on 18 bird species with data from over 3000 sites across the north-eastern United States and adjacent Canadian provinces. We use hierarchal occupancy modelling to quantify the effects of short-term weather variation and surrounding urbanization on food stress and probabilities of detection, and how these fine-scale changes modify the role that climate has on the distributions of wintering bird populations at regional scales. 3. Examining site occupancy and supplemental food use across the study region, we found that average minimum temperature was an important factor limiting bird distributions, supporting the hypothesis that the occupancy of wintering birds is limited by climatic constraints. We found that 15 of 18 species (83%) were more energetically stressed (had a higher likelihood of visiting a feeder station) as minimum temperature declined from the seasonal average. Because we found these patterns in populations that regularly visit supplemental food sites and were likely not food-limited, we suggest that resource availability is less important than climate in constraining wintering bird distributions. Across a winter season, local within-winter extinction probabilities were lower and colonization probabilities higher at warmer sites supporting the role of climate-mediated range shifts. Importantly, however, these relationships were modified by the degree of urbanization and species' abilities to persist in human-modified landscapes. 4. Our results suggest that urbanization and behavioural adaptation can modify the role of climate on bird ranges and should be included in future analyses of range shifts because of climate change.

Common garden experiment reveals pathogen isolate but no host genetic diversity effect on the dynamics of an emerging wildlife disease

Host genetic diversity can mediate pathogen resistance within and among populations. Here we test whether the lower prevalence of Mycoplasmal conjunctivitis in native North American house finch populations results from greater resistance to the causative agent, Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG), than introduced, recently-bottlenecked populations that lack genetic diversity. In a common garden experiment, we challenged wild-caught western (native) and eastern (introduced) North American finches with a representative eastern or western MG isolate. Although introduced finches in our study had lower neutral genetic diversity than native finches, we found no support for a population-level genetic diversity effect on host resistance. Instead we detected strong support for isolate differences: the MG isolate circulating in western house finch populations produced lower virulence, but higher pathogen loads, in both native and introduced hosts. Our results indicate that contemporary differences in host genetic diversity likely do not explain the lower conjunctivitis prevalence in native house finches, but isolate-level differences in virulence may play an important role.

Spatial variation in an avian host community: implications for disease dynamics

Because many pathogens can infect multiple host species within a community, disease dynamics in a focal host species can be affected by the composition of the host community. We examine the extent to which spatial variation in species' abundances in an avian host community may contribute to geographically varying prevalence of a recently emerged wildlife pathogen. Mycoplasma gallisepticum is a pathogen novel to songbirds that has caused substantial mortality in house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus) in eastern North America. Though the house finch is the primary host species for M. gallisepticum, the American goldfinch (Spinus tristis) and northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) are alternate hosts, and laboratory experiments have demonstrated M. gallisepticum transmission between house finches and goldfinches. Still unknown is the real world impact on disease dynamics of variation in abundances of the three hosts. We analyzed data from winter-long bird and disease surveys in the northeastern United States. We found that higher disease prevalence in house finches was associated with higher numbers of northern cardinals and American goldfinches, although only the effect of cardinal abundance was statistically significant. Nevertheless, our results indicate that spatial variation in bird communities has the potential to cause geographic variation in disease prevalence in house finches.

Global warming and Bergmann's rule: do central European passerines adjust their body size to rising temperatures?

Recent climate change has caused diverse ecological responses in plants and animals. However, relatively little is known about homeothermic animals’ ability to adapt to changing temperature regimes through changes in body size, in accordance with Bergmann’s rule. We used fluctuations in mean annual temperatures in south-west Germany since 1972 in order to look for direct links between temperature and two aspects of body size: body mass and flight feather length. Data from regionally born juveniles of 12 passerine bird species were analysed. Body mass and feather length varied significantly among years in eight and nine species, respectively. Typically the inter-annual changes in morphology were complexly non-linear, as was inter-annual variation in temperature. For six (body mass) and seven species (feather length), these inter-annual fluctuations were significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations. However, negative correlations consistent with Bergmann’s rule were only found for five species, either for body mass or feather length. In several of the species for which body mass and feather length was significantly associated with temperature, morphological responses were better predicted by temperature data that were smoothed across multiple years than by the actual mean breeding season temperatures of the year of birth. This was found in five species for body mass and three species for feather length. These results suggest that changes in body size may not merely be the result of phenotypic plasticity but may hint at genetically based microevolutionary adaptations.